UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DEL

CENTRO DEL PERÚ

Métodos y técnicas de
Prospección Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración

MARCOS ROJAS PARRAGA / GERALD QUISPE RICALDI / ALEXANDER RIVERA HUAMAN SEMESTRE: “VI – B”
 Métafora
(el sueño del clavo y el riesgo del martillo)
Se busca eliminar dos errores
sistemáticos

Por el contrario, debido a

que se conoce el uso del
Ignorar que el martillo
martillo se
existe cuando
termina por creer que
encontramos un clavo
todos los problemas se
suelto — el sueño del
asemejan
clavo —
a un clavo —el riesgo del
martillo—

En lo que concierne a las herramientas

de la prospectiva estratégica, es
preciso recordar su utilidad.
¡El futuro no existe!
– En estricto sentido sólo se conoce el
pasado.

– El futuro está siempre en proceso de

hacerse, pero se compone de materiales ya
existentes, que potencialmente se pueden
“Me interesa saber
conocer. cómo es el futuro,
porque es el sitio
– Se tiene conocimiento del pasado y del donde
voy a pasar el resto
presente, y a partir de ellos se puede construir
de
imágenes del futuro. mi vida”.

– Las imágenes del futuro deben ser Woody Allen

plausibles y compartidas, es decir, aceptables
para el conjunto de usuarios posibles.
 4 Cuestiones
Resultado de la dicotomía entre la
exploración y la
preparación se tiene:

¿Que puede ocurrir? Visión prospectiva

¿Que puede hacer? Visión estratégica

¿Que voy hacer? Prospectiva estratégica

¿Cómo voy hacerlo?
CONTENTS
 Fórmula del Futuro

F = (a x T) + (b x E) + (c x P)
T= Tendencia o inercia histórica
E= Evento o acontecimiento inesperado
P= Propósitos u objetivos individuales y/o colectivos

En que a,b,c, son parámetros o coeficientes positivos, donde a+b+c=1

(Acuña y Konow, 1990)

Era Industrial Era de la Información
 Actitudes hacia el Futuro
Avestruz Bombero Asegurado Propectivista

ENFRENTA LOS PRE-ACTIVO, CONSPIRADOR -

CIERRA LOS .
SE PREPARA PROACTIVO, TRATA DE
OJOS ANTE HECHOS CUANDO
PROVOCAR LOS
EL FUTURO ESTOS LLEGAN PARA LOS
CAMBIOS EN BASE
CAMBIOS AL FUTURO QUE
PREVISIBLES DESEA CONSTRUIR.
 Técnicas de Prospección

Prototipo del Problema

Proceso Intelectual

Resultado

Referencia bibliográfica:
http://www.iberglobal.com/Archivos/trendcompendium2030_rolandberger.pdf
https://www.esan.edu.pe/apuntes-empresariales/2017/09/diez-megatendencias-a-considerar-en-sostenibilidad/
MÉTODO DE ESCENARIOS
Métodos de Prospectiva
ANALISIS MORFOLOGICO
Métodos de Prospectiva
ÁBACO DE REGNIER
Métodos de Prospectiva
EL ANÁLISIS ESTRUCTURAL
Métodos de Prospectiva
 Bibliografía
http://files.prospectivaypresupuesto.webnode.com.co/200000035-b5141b60f4/PROSPECTIVA%203.pdf
http://www.desarrollosocialyfamilia.gob.cl/btca/txtcompleto/DIGITALIZADOS/Libros%20grles/F982-I-08-1990.pdf
https://cmapspublic2.ihmc.us/rid=1Q2PH77DL-1XM4BW8-2LXW/CAJA%20DE%20HERRAMIENTAS.pdf
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