Millones de dólares (USD) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mercado Tns 120,000 124,800 129,792 134,984 140,383 145,998 151,838

Compra del activo $12,000,000 Share 12,000 12,480 12,979 13,498 14,038 14,600 15,184
Inversiones anuales adicionales $1,000,000 primeros 5 años
Año 1 Año 2 Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 Año 6 Año 7
Tamaño de mercado 120,000 Tn Ingresos $10,800,000 $11,232,000 $11,681,280 $12,148,531 $12,634,472 $13,139,851 $13,665,445
Crecimiento de mercado 4.0% Costo de Materias Primas $3,996,000 $4,155,840 $4,322,074 $4,494,957 $4,674,755 $4,861,745 $5,056,215
Precio $900.0 Costo de Mano de Obra Directa $1,512,000 $1,572,480 $1,635,379 $1,700,794 $1,768,826 $1,839,579 $1,913,162
Share 10.0% Margen bruto $5,292,000 $5,503,680 $5,723,827 $5,952,780 $6,190,891 $6,438,527 $6,696,068
Gastos Generales $800,000 $840,000 $882,000 $926,100 $972,405 $1,021,025 $1,072,077
Costo de MP 37.0% ventas Gastos de Ventas $324,000 $336,960 $350,438 $364,456 $379,034 $394,196 $409,963
Costo de MOD 14.0% ventas Gastos de Transporte $216,000 $224,640 $233,626 $242,971 $252,689 $262,797 $273,309
EBITDA $3,952,000 $4,102,080 $4,257,763 $4,419,254 $4,586,763 $4,760,509 $4,940,719
Gastos Generales $800,000 Depreciación $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000
5.0% crecimiento gtos grales EBIT $2,752,000 $2,802,080 $2,857,763 $2,919,254 $2,986,763 $3,060,509 $3,240,719
Comisiones de ventas 3.0% ventas Impuestos $825,600 $840,624 $857,329 $875,776 $896,029 $918,153 $972,216
Gastos Transporte 2.0% ventas Depreciacion $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000
NOPAT $3,126,400 $3,261,456 $3,400,434 $3,543,478 $3,690,734 $3,842,357 $3,968,504
Depreciación lineal 10 años CAPEX $12,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000 $1,000,000
Tasa Impositiva 30.0% Inv k de w $2,672,400 $106,896 $111,172 $115,619 $120,243 $125,053 $130,055
Valor de rescate $4,780,000
Recupero de Inversión Recuperacion k w $3,043,295
Capital de trabajo (fondo de maniobra) 90.0% FCF (12,000,000) (546,000) 2,154,560 2,289,262 2,427,859 2,570,491 3,717,303 11,661,743
Valor venta de activo $4,000,000
valor presente flujo $495,003 $1,770,882 $1,705,856 $1,640,158 $1,574,323 $2,064,056 $5,870,465
Tasas Recupero descontado $12,495,003 $10,724,121 $9,018,265 $7,378,107 $5,803,784 $3,739,728 $2,130,737
Costo de la deuda (antes de impuesto) 8.0%
Costo de la deuda (despues imp) 5.6% CCPP 10.30%
Riesgo País 2.25% VAN 2,130,737
Beta desapalancada 1.11 TIR 13.73% PI 1.18
Beta apalancado 2.28 TIR modificada 13.24%
Rf 3.0%
Prima de mercado 5.3% Cuentas por cobrar $2,700,000 $2,808,000 $2,920,320 $3,037,133 $3,158,618 $3,284,963 $3,416,361
Retorno del accionista 17.4% Inventarios $666,000 $692,640 $720,346 $749,159 $779,126 $810,291 $842,702
Efectivo $194,400 $202,176 $210,263 $218,674 $227,421 $236,517 $245,978
Pasivo 60.00% Cuentas por pagar $888,000 $923,520 $960,461 $998,879 $1,038,834 $1,080,388 $1,123,603
Patrimonio 40.00% Fondo de maniobra $2,672,400 $2,779,296 $2,890,468 $3,006,087 $3,126,330 $3,251,383 $3,381,439
Plazo credito 7.0 años Inversiones $2,672,400 $106,896 $111,172 $115,619 $120,243 $125,053 $130,055

ROA de laempresa 12.0% Activo bruto $12,000,000 $13,000,000 $14,000,000 $15,000,000 $16,000,000 $17,000,000 $17,000,000 $17,000,000
Depreciacion $1,200,000 $1,300,000 $1,400,000 $1,500,000 $1,600,000 $1,700,000 $1,700,000
Fondo de Maniobra Activos fijos neto $12,000,000 $11,800,000 $11,500,000 $11,100,000 $10,600,000 $10,000,000 $8,300,000 $6,600,000
Inversión en clientes. PPC 90 días de las ventas
Inventarios. PPI 60 días de Costo de MP Pago financiamiento
Proveedores. PPP 80 días de Costo de MP Saldo $7,200,000 $6,393,079 $5,521,604 $4,580,411 $3,563,922 $2,466,115 $1,280,483 $0
Efectivo 1.80% % de las ventas Amortizacion $806,921 $871,475 $941,193 $1,016,488 $1,097,808 $1,185,632 $1,280,483
base de calculo Año 360 días Intereses $576,000 $511,446 $441,728 $366,433 $285,114 $197,289 $102,439
Cuota $1,382,921 $1,382,921 $1,382,921 $1,382,921 $1,382,921 $1,382,921 $1,382,921

Activos operativos $12,000,000 $14,472,400 $14,279,296 $13,990,468 $13,606,087 $13,126,330 $11,551,383 $9,981,439
Pasivo $7,200,000 $6,393,079 $5,521,604 $4,580,411 $3,563,922 $2,466,115 $1,280,483 $0
Patrimonio $4,800,000 $8,079,321 $8,757,692 $9,410,057 $10,042,164 $10,660,215 $10,270,901 $9,981,439

ROI 26.3% 28.0% 30.1% 32.7% 35.8% 42.0% 53.3%

ROIC 21.6% 22.8% 24.3% 26.0% 28.1% 33.3% 39.8%
CFROI 33.5% 35.7% 38.4% 41.7% 45.9% 57.4% 74.9%
Economic Profit $1,635,415 $1,790,365 $1,959,099 $2,141,743 $2,338,425 $2,652,303 $2,940,189
EVA $1,635,415 $1,790,365 $1,959,099 $2,141,743 $2,338,425 $2,652,303 $2,940,189

Costo de materia prima 2,130,736.60 13.73% Clientes 2,130,736.60 13.73%

35.00% 2,934,551.02 15.01% 60 2,584,769.51 14.69%
36.00% 2,532,643.81 14.37% 70 2,433,425.21 14.36%
37.00% 2,130,736.60 13.73% 80 2,282,080.90 14.04%
38.00% 1,728,829.39 13.09% 90 2,130,736.60 13.73%
39.00% 1,326,922.18 12.44% 100 1,979,392.29 13.43%
40.00% 925,014.97 11.80% 110 1,828,047.99 13.14%

Costo MOD 2,130,736.60 13.73% PPI 2,130,736.60 13.73%

11.00% 3,345,538.88 15.66% 40 2,242,731.38 13.96%
12.00% 2,940,604.79 15.02% 50 2,186,733.99 13.84%
13.00% 2,535,670.69 14.38% 60 2,130,736.60 13.73%
14.00% 2,130,736.60 13.73% 70 2,074,739.21 13.62%
15.00% 1,725,802.50 13.08% 80 2,018,741.81 13.51%
16.00% 1,320,868.41 12.43% 90 1,962,744.42 13.40%

Cobertura financiera
EBITDA / Intereses 6.9 8.0 9.6 12.1 16.1 24.1 48.2