Sanotron

Sanotronics es una nueva empresa que fabrica dispositivos médicos para su uso en hospitales. Inspirada por experiencias con f
que limita la exposición de los trabajadores de la salud a los tratamientos de quimioterapia mientras preparan, administran y d
participación sustancial en el mercado.Sanotronics desea un análisis del potencial de utilidades del primer año para el dispo
potencial. Sanotronics ha identificado los parámetros esenciales para determinar las utilidades del primer año: precio de venta
costo de las partes por unidad (cp) y demanda en el primer año (d). Después de llevar a cabo un estudio de mercado y un aná
unidad, y los costos administrativos y de publicidad del primer año sumarán un total de $1,000,000.Sanotronics no está segu
planeación, los estimados base de Sanotronics de estos insumos son $45 por unidad para la mano de obra directa, $90 por uni

Escenario Base (Hipótesis base)

Precio(p) 249.00
demanda (d) 15,000.00
Costos Administrativos y de publicidad (ca) 1,000,000.00
Costo de mano de obra directa por unidad (cl) 45.00
Costo de las partes por unidad (cp) 90.00

Utilidad 710,000.00 =d*(p-cl-cp)

Modelo

Precio(p) 250.00
demanda (d) 14,997.05
Costos Administrativos y de publicidad (ca) 900,000.00
Costo de mano de obra directa por unidad (cl) 45.00
Costo de las partes por unidad (cp) 92.32

Utilidad 789,822.35 =d*(p-cl-cp)

Simulación
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1522 789,822.35
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1530 789,822.35
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1552 789,822.35
1553 789,822.35
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1555 789,822.35
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1596 789,822.35
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1598 789,822.35
1599 789,822.35
1600 789,822.35
1601 789,822.35
1602 789,822.35
1603 789,822.35
1604 789,822.35
1605 789,822.35
1606 789,822.35
1607 789,822.35
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1644 789,822.35
1645 789,822.35
1646 789,822.35
1647 789,822.35
1648 789,822.35
1649 789,822.35
1650 789,822.35
1651 789,822.35
1652 789,822.35
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1694 789,822.35
1695 789,822.35
1696 789,822.35
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1700 789,822.35
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1738 789,822.35
1739 789,822.35
1740 789,822.35
1741 789,822.35
1742 789,822.35
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1745 789,822.35
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1788 789,822.35
1789 789,822.35
1790 789,822.35
1791 789,822.35
1792 789,822.35
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1800 789,822.35
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1834 789,822.35
1835 789,822.35
1836 789,822.35
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1880 789,822.35
1881 789,822.35
1882 789,822.35
1883 789,822.35
1884 789,822.35
1885 789,822.35
1886 789,822.35
1887 789,822.35
1888 789,822.35
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1890 789,822.35
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1899 789,822.35
1900 789,822.35
1901 789,822.35
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1910 789,822.35
1911 789,822.35
1912 789,822.35
1913 789,822.35
1914 789,822.35
1915 789,822.35
1916 789,822.35
1917 789,822.35
1918 789,822.35
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1920 789,822.35
1921 789,822.35
1922 789,822.35
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1925 789,822.35
1926 789,822.35
1927 789,822.35
1928 789,822.35
1929 789,822.35
1930 789,822.35
1931 789,822.35
1932 789,822.35
1933 789,822.35
1934 789,822.35
1935 789,822.35
1936 789,822.35
1937 789,822.35
1938 789,822.35
1939 789,822.35
1940 789,822.35
1941 789,822.35
1942 789,822.35
1943 789,822.35
1944 789,822.35
1945 789,822.35
1946 789,822.35
1947 789,822.35
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1949 789,822.35
1950 789,822.35
1951 789,822.35
1952 789,822.35
1953 789,822.35
1954 789,822.35
1955 789,822.35
1956 789,822.35
1957 789,822.35
1958 789,822.35
1959 789,822.35
1960 789,822.35
1961 789,822.35
1962 789,822.35
1963 789,822.35
1964 789,822.35
1965 789,822.35
1966 789,822.35
1967 789,822.35
1968 789,822.35
1969 789,822.35
1970 789,822.35
1971 789,822.35
1972 789,822.35
1973 789,822.35
1974 789,822.35
1975 789,822.35
1976 789,822.35
1977 789,822.35
1978 789,822.35
1979 789,822.35
1980 789,822.35
1981 789,822.35
1982 789,822.35
1983 789,822.35
1984 789,822.35
1985 789,822.35
1986 789,822.35
1987 789,822.35
1988 789,822.35
1989 789,822.35
1990 789,822.35
1991 789,822.35
1992 789,822.35
1993 789,822.35
1994 789,822.35
1995 789,822.35
1996 789,822.35
1997 789,822.35
1998 789,822.35
1999 789,822.35
2000 789,822.35
2001 789,822.35
2002 789,822.35
2003 789,822.35
2004 789,822.35
2005 789,822.35
2006 789,822.35
2007 789,822.35
2008 789,822.35
2009 789,822.35
2010 789,822.35
2011 789,822.35
2012 789,822.35
2013 789,822.35
2014 789,822.35
2015 789,822.35
2016 789,822.35
2017 789,822.35
2018 789,822.35
2019 789,822.35
2020 789,822.35
2021 789,822.35
2022 789,822.35
2023 789,822.35
2024 789,822.35
2025 789,822.35
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2027 789,822.35
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2067 789,822.35
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2069 789,822.35
2070 789,822.35
2071 789,822.35
2072 789,822.35
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2100 789,822.35
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2110 789,822.35
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2112 789,822.35
2113 789,822.35
2114 789,822.35
2115 789,822.35
2116 789,822.35
2117 789,822.35
2118 789,822.35
2119 789,822.35
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2161 789,822.35
2162 789,822.35
2163 789,822.35
2164 789,822.35
2165 789,822.35
2166 789,822.35
2167 789,822.35
2168 789,822.35
2169 789,822.35
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2171 789,822.35
2172 789,822.35
2173 789,822.35
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2178 789,822.35
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2180 789,822.35
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2183 789,822.35
2184 789,822.35
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2200 789,822.35
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2202 789,822.35
2203 789,822.35
2204 789,822.35
2205 789,822.35
2206 789,822.35
2207 789,822.35
2208 789,822.35
2209 789,822.35
2210 789,822.35
2211 789,822.35
2212 789,822.35
2213 789,822.35
2214 789,822.35
2215 789,822.35
2216 789,822.35
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2222 789,822.35
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2240 789,822.35
2241 789,822.35
2242 789,822.35
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2244 789,822.35
2245 789,822.35
2246 789,822.35
2247 789,822.35
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2250 789,822.35
2251 789,822.35
2252 789,822.35
2253 789,822.35
2254 789,822.35
2255 789,822.35
2256 789,822.35
2257 789,822.35
2258 789,822.35
2259 789,822.35
2260 789,822.35
2261 789,822.35
2262 789,822.35
2263 789,822.35
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2265 789,822.35
2266 789,822.35
2267 789,822.35
2268 789,822.35
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4492 789,822.35
4493 789,822.35
4494 789,822.35
4495 789,822.35
4496 789,822.35
4497 789,822.35
4498 789,822.35
4499 789,822.35
4500 789,822.35
4501 789,822.35
4502 789,822.35
4503 789,822.35
4504 789,822.35
4505 789,822.35
4506 789,822.35
4507 789,822.35
4508 789,822.35
4509 789,822.35
4510 789,822.35
4511 789,822.35
4512 789,822.35
4513 789,822.35
4514 789,822.35
4515 789,822.35
4516 789,822.35
4517 789,822.35
4518 789,822.35
4519 789,822.35
4520 789,822.35
4521 789,822.35
4522 789,822.35
4523 789,822.35
4524 789,822.35
4525 789,822.35
4526 789,822.35
4527 789,822.35
4528 789,822.35
4529 789,822.35
4530 789,822.35
4531 789,822.35
4532 789,822.35
4533 789,822.35
4534 789,822.35
4535 789,822.35
4536 789,822.35
4537 789,822.35
4538 789,822.35
4539 789,822.35
4540 789,822.35
4541 789,822.35
4542 789,822.35
4543 789,822.35
4544 789,822.35
4545 789,822.35
4546 789,822.35
4547 789,822.35
4548 789,822.35
4549 789,822.35
4550 789,822.35
4551 789,822.35
4552 789,822.35
4553 789,822.35
4554 789,822.35
4555 789,822.35
4556 789,822.35
4557 789,822.35
4558 789,822.35
4559 789,822.35
4560 789,822.35
4561 789,822.35
4562 789,822.35
4563 789,822.35
4564 789,822.35
4565 789,822.35
4566 789,822.35
4567 789,822.35
4568 789,822.35
4569 789,822.35
4570 789,822.35
4571 789,822.35
4572 789,822.35
4573 789,822.35
4574 789,822.35
4575 789,822.35
4576 789,822.35
4577 789,822.35
4578 789,822.35
4579 789,822.35
4580 789,822.35
4581 789,822.35
4582 789,822.35
4583 789,822.35
4584 789,822.35
4585 789,822.35
4586 789,822.35
4587 789,822.35
4588 789,822.35
4589 789,822.35
4590 789,822.35
4591 789,822.35
4592 789,822.35
4593 789,822.35
4594 789,822.35
4595 789,822.35
4596 789,822.35
4597 789,822.35
4598 789,822.35
4599 789,822.35
4600 789,822.35
4601 789,822.35
4602 789,822.35
4603 789,822.35
4604 789,822.35
4605 789,822.35
4606 789,822.35
4607 789,822.35
4608 789,822.35
4609 789,822.35
4610 789,822.35
4611 789,822.35
4612 789,822.35
4613 789,822.35
4614 789,822.35
4615 789,822.35
4616 789,822.35
4617 789,822.35
4618 789,822.35
4619 789,822.35
4620 789,822.35
4621 789,822.35
4622 789,822.35
4623 789,822.35
4624 789,822.35
4625 789,822.35
4626 789,822.35
4627 789,822.35
4628 789,822.35
4629 789,822.35
4630 789,822.35
4631 789,822.35
4632 789,822.35
4633 789,822.35
4634 789,822.35
4635 789,822.35
4636 789,822.35
4637 789,822.35
4638 789,822.35
4639 789,822.35
4640 789,822.35
4641 789,822.35
4642 789,822.35
4643 789,822.35
4644 789,822.35
4645 789,822.35
4646 789,822.35
4647 789,822.35
4648 789,822.35
4649 789,822.35
4650 789,822.35
4651 789,822.35
4652 789,822.35
4653 789,822.35
4654 789,822.35
4655 789,822.35
4656 789,822.35
4657 789,822.35
4658 789,822.35
4659 789,822.35
4660 789,822.35
4661 789,822.35
4662 789,822.35
4663 789,822.35
4664 789,822.35
4665 789,822.35
4666 789,822.35
4667 789,822.35
4668 789,822.35
4669 789,822.35
4670 789,822.35
4671 789,822.35
4672 789,822.35
4673 789,822.35
4674 789,822.35
4675 789,822.35
4676 789,822.35
4677 789,822.35
4678 789,822.35
4679 789,822.35
4680 789,822.35
4681 789,822.35
4682 789,822.35
4683 789,822.35
4684 789,822.35
4685 789,822.35
4686 789,822.35
4687 789,822.35
4688 789,822.35
4689 789,822.35
4690 789,822.35
4691 789,822.35
4692 789,822.35
4693 789,822.35
4694 789,822.35
4695 789,822.35
4696 789,822.35
4697 789,822.35
4698 789,822.35
4699 789,822.35
4700 789,822.35
4701 789,822.35
4702 789,822.35
4703 789,822.35
4704 789,822.35
4705 789,822.35
4706 789,822.35
4707 789,822.35
4708 789,822.35
4709 789,822.35
4710 789,822.35
4711 789,822.35
4712 789,822.35
4713 789,822.35
4714 789,822.35
4715 789,822.35
4716 789,822.35
4717 789,822.35
4718 789,822.35
4719 789,822.35
4720 789,822.35
4721 789,822.35
4722 789,822.35
4723 789,822.35
4724 789,822.35
4725 789,822.35
4726 789,822.35
4727 789,822.35
4728 789,822.35
4729 789,822.35
4730 789,822.35
4731 789,822.35
4732 789,822.35
4733 789,822.35
4734 789,822.35
4735 789,822.35
4736 789,822.35
4737 789,822.35
4738 789,822.35
4739 789,822.35
4740 789,822.35
4741 789,822.35
4742 789,822.35
4743 789,822.35
4744 789,822.35
4745 789,822.35
4746 789,822.35
4747 789,822.35
4748 789,822.35
4749 789,822.35
4750 789,822.35
4751 789,822.35
4752 789,822.35
4753 789,822.35
4754 789,822.35
4755 789,822.35
4756 789,822.35
4757 789,822.35
4758 789,822.35
4759 789,822.35
4760 789,822.35
4761 789,822.35
4762 789,822.35
4763 789,822.35
4764 789,822.35
4765 789,822.35
4766 789,822.35
4767 789,822.35
4768 789,822.35
4769 789,822.35
4770 789,822.35
4771 789,822.35
4772 789,822.35
4773 789,822.35
4774 789,822.35
4775 789,822.35
4776 789,822.35
4777 789,822.35
4778 789,822.35
4779 789,822.35
4780 789,822.35
4781 789,822.35
4782 789,822.35
4783 789,822.35
4784 789,822.35
4785 789,822.35
4786 789,822.35
4787 789,822.35
4788 789,822.35
4789 789,822.35
4790 789,822.35
4791 789,822.35
4792 789,822.35
4793 789,822.35
4794 789,822.35
4795 789,822.35
4796 789,822.35
4797 789,822.35
4798 789,822.35
4799 789,822.35
4800 789,822.35
4801 789,822.35
4802 789,822.35
4803 789,822.35
4804 789,822.35
4805 789,822.35
4806 789,822.35
4807 789,822.35
4808 789,822.35
4809 789,822.35
4810 789,822.35
4811 789,822.35
4812 789,822.35
4813 789,822.35
4814 789,822.35
4815 789,822.35
4816 789,822.35
4817 789,822.35
4818 789,822.35
4819 789,822.35
4820 789,822.35
4821 789,822.35
4822 789,822.35
4823 789,822.35
4824 789,822.35
4825 789,822.35
4826 789,822.35
4827 789,822.35
4828 789,822.35
4829 789,822.35
4830 789,822.35
4831 789,822.35
4832 789,822.35
4833 789,822.35
4834 789,822.35
4835 789,822.35
4836 789,822.35
4837 789,822.35
4838 789,822.35
4839 789,822.35
4840 789,822.35
4841 789,822.35
4842 789,822.35
4843 789,822.35
4844 789,822.35
4845 789,822.35
4846 789,822.35
4847 789,822.35
4848 789,822.35
4849 789,822.35
4850 789,822.35
4851 789,822.35
4852 789,822.35
4853 789,822.35
4854 789,822.35
4855 789,822.35
4856 789,822.35
4857 789,822.35
4858 789,822.35
4859 789,822.35
4860 789,822.35
4861 789,822.35
4862 789,822.35
4863 789,822.35
4864 789,822.35
4865 789,822.35
4866 789,822.35
4867 789,822.35
4868 789,822.35
4869 789,822.35
4870 789,822.35
4871 789,822.35
4872 789,822.35
4873 789,822.35
4874 789,822.35
4875 789,822.35
4876 789,822.35
4877 789,822.35
4878 789,822.35
4879 789,822.35
4880 789,822.35
4881 789,822.35
4882 789,822.35
4883 789,822.35
4884 789,822.35
4885 789,822.35
4886 789,822.35
4887 789,822.35
4888 789,822.35
4889 789,822.35
4890 789,822.35
4891 789,822.35
4892 789,822.35
4893 789,822.35
4894 789,822.35
4895 789,822.35
4896 789,822.35
4897 789,822.35
4898 789,822.35
4899 789,822.35
4900 789,822.35
4901 789,822.35
4902 789,822.35
4903 789,822.35
4904 789,822.35
4905 789,822.35
4906 789,822.35
4907 789,822.35
4908 789,822.35
4909 789,822.35
4910 789,822.35
4911 789,822.35
4912 789,822.35
4913 789,822.35
4914 789,822.35
4915 789,822.35
4916 789,822.35
4917 789,822.35
4918 789,822.35
4919 789,822.35
4920 789,822.35
4921 789,822.35
4922 789,822.35
4923 789,822.35
4924 789,822.35
4925 789,822.35
4926 789,822.35
4927 789,822.35
4928 789,822.35
4929 789,822.35
4930 789,822.35
4931 789,822.35
4932 789,822.35
4933 789,822.35
4934 789,822.35
4935 789,822.35
4936 789,822.35
4937 789,822.35
4938 789,822.35
4939 789,822.35
4940 789,822.35
4941 789,822.35
4942 789,822.35
4943 789,822.35
4944 789,822.35
4945 789,822.35
4946 789,822.35
4947 789,822.35
4948 789,822.35
4949 789,822.35
4950 789,822.35
4951 789,822.35
4952 789,822.35
4953 789,822.35
4954 789,822.35
4955 789,822.35
4956 789,822.35
4957 789,822.35
4958 789,822.35
4959 789,822.35
4960 789,822.35
4961 789,822.35
4962 789,822.35
4963 789,822.35
4964 789,822.35
4965 789,822.35
4966 789,822.35
4967 789,822.35
4968 789,822.35
4969 789,822.35
4970 789,822.35
4971 789,822.35
4972 789,822.35
4973 789,822.35
4974 789,822.35
4975 789,822.35
4976 789,822.35
4977 789,822.35
4978 789,822.35
4979 789,822.35
4980 789,822.35
4981 789,822.35
4982 789,822.35
4983 789,822.35
4984 789,822.35
4985 789,822.35
4986 789,822.35
4987 789,822.35
4988 789,822.35
4989 789,822.35
4990 789,822.35
4991 789,822.35
4992 789,822.35
4993 789,822.35
4994 789,822.35
4995 789,822.35
4996 789,822.35
4997 789,822.35
4998 789,822.35
4999 789,822.35
5000 789,822.35
 Sanotronics
da por experiencias con familiares que han luchado contra el cáncer, los fundadores de Sanotronics desarrollaron un prototipo para un nue
reparan, administran y desechan estas peligrosas medicinas. Este nuevo dispositivo incluye un diseño innovador y tiene el potencial de ca
primer año para el dispositivo. Debido al poco dinero con el que cuenta la empresa, la gerencia está especialmente preocupada por una p
mer año: precio de venta de la unidad (p), costos administrativos y publicitarios del primer año (ca), costo de mano de obra directa por u
dio de mercado y un análisis financiero, Sanotronics estima con un alto nivel de certidumbre que el precio de venta del dispositivo será de
Sanotronics no está segura del costo de mano de obra directa, el costo de las partes y la demanda del primer año. En esta etapa del proce
obra directa, $90 por unidad para las partes y 15,000 unidades para la demanda del primer año.

Peor Escenario (Hipótesis base)

249.00
6,000.00
1,000,000.00
47.00
100.00

p-cl-cp)-ca -388,000.00

Min 789,822.35
P25 (PERCENTIL 25%) 789,822.35
Utilidad Media 789,822.35
Mediana 789,822.35
P75 (PERCENTIL 75%) 789,822.35
Max 789,822.35

p-cl-cp)-ca Desv. Est 0.00

V.Esperado 0
Riesgo 0.00%
arrollaron un prototipo para un nuevo dispositivo
nnovador y tiene el potencial de captar una
pecialmente preocupada por una pérdida
osto de mano de obra directa por unidad (cl),
cio de venta del dispositivo será de $249 por
primer año. En esta etapa del proceso de

Mejor Escenario (Hipótesis base)

249.00
24,000.00
1,000,000.00
43.00
80.00

2,024,000.00

Histograma
Clase Frecuencia 6000

-1142965.2 0
5000
-1090857.8 0
-1038750.3 0 4000
-986642.84 0
-934535.38 0 3000
Frecuencia

2000
-882427.91 0
-830320.44 0 1000
-778212.98 0
-726105.51 0 0
-673998.05 0
1 2 82 4 1 92 5 9 1 8 23 65 06 47 88 93 57 21 85 49 13 78
-621890.58 0 0 4 7 2 4 4 0 1 8 6 9 7 5 6 5 3 3 9 8 87 1 1 3 3 4 0 5 6 6 7 92 2 0 1 2 24 2 4 7 2 69 2 9 2 3 1 5 3 3 7
42 7 0 20 6 4 19 69 8 0 3 1 8 1 3 1 8 1 7 3 3 8 0 3 6 8 3 3 9 8 6 3
5 .2 .37 .51 75. .78 .91 .94 .81 .67 .54 .40 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4
6 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4
4 29 45 3 61 0 517 9 24 0 81 761 60 4 447 290 133 497 581 666 750 834 91 9 003
1 3 2 - 3 0 1 0 10 3 1 52 7 3 94 1 1 13 1 5 17 1 9 2 1 24
-1 -9 -7 - -
 0
2 2 1 2 9 8 3 5 6 7 8 3 7 1 5 9 3 8
4 7 1 4 4 8 1 8 4 9 7 9 6 5 5 3 9 1 87 2 1 3 6 4 0 0 6 6 4 92 8 0 1 9 24 5 4 7 2 69 8 9 2 4 1 5 1 3 7 7
2 0 02 0 0 46 9 5 9 3 08 1 1 13 1 5 17 3 2 82 3 2 82 3 2 8 3 33
-569783.11 0 .24 377 512 5.6 781 916 948 813 678 543 408 .27 .13 .00 .86 .73 .59 .46
5 . . 7 . . . . . . . 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
-517675.65 0 2 9 6 5 35 1 0 5 1 7 6 2 4 5 8 1 5 6 1 3 0 4 3 4 7 3 9 0 3 3 3 3 9 7 6 8 1 9 6 6 2 5 0 5 3 4 8 1 9 1 0 3 4
14 34 26 -5 309 100 107 316 524 732 941 114 135 156 177 198 219 240
-465568.18 0 -1 -9 -7 - -
-413460.71 0
-361353.25 0 Clase
-309245.78 0
-257138.32 0
-205030.85 0
-152923.38 0
-100815.92 0
-48708.451 0
3399.01558 0
55506.4818 0
107613.948 0
159721.414 0
211828.881 0
263936.347 0
316043.813 0
368151.279 0
420258.746 0
472366.212 0
524473.678 0
576581.144 0
628688.611 0
680796.077 0
732903.543 0
785011.009 0
837118.476 5000
889225.942 0
941333.408 0
993440.874 0
1045548.34 0
1097655.81 0
1149763.27 0
1201870.74 0
1253978.21 0
1306085.67 0
1358193.14 0
1410300.6 0
1462408.07 0
1514515.54 0
1566623 0
1618730.47 0
1670837.94 0
1722945.4 0
1775052.87 0
1827160.33 0
 1879267.8 0
1931375.27 0
1983482.73 0
2035590.2 0
2087697.67 0
2139805.13 0
2191912.6 0
2244020.06 0
2296127.53 0
2348235 0
2400342.46 0
2452449.93 0
y mayor... 1
ma

Frecuencia

88 193 4 57 721 9 85 249 513 778

0 2 4 6 9 1 3
3 2 382 03 2 682 33 2 98 3 633
1 0 8 7 5 4
3. 2 3 . 5 2. 8 2 . 1 2 . 4 2.
6 0 4 9 3
66 7 75 983 191 4 00
1 1 2 2
88 193 4 57 721 9 85 249 513 778
0 2 4 6 9 1 3
3 2 382 03 2 682 33 2 98 3 633
1 0 8 7 5 4
3. 2 3 . 5 2. 8 2 . 1 2 . 4 2.
6 0 4 9 3
66 7 75 983 191 4 00
1 1 2 2
Distribución de probabilidad discreta no uniforme

Costo de mano de obra directa: Con base en los índices de salario recientes y los requerimientos de procesamiento estimados
Sanotronics cree que el costo de la mano de obra directa estará entre $43 y $47 por unidad como se describe en la distribuci
discreta que aparece en la figura 16.2. Por tanto, podemos observar que existe una posibilidad de 0.1 de que el costo de man
de $43 por unidad, una probabili-dad de 0.2 de que sea de $44 por unidad, etcétera. La probabilidad más alta de 0.4 se asoc
mano de obra directa de $45 por unidad. Ya que se asume que el costo de mano de obra directa por unidad se describe mejor
de probabilidad discreta, esto significa que el costo de mano de obra directa por unidad sólo puede tener los valores de $43, $

CMOD Probabilidad Intervalo de números aleatorios

43 0.1 (0.. 0.1)
44 0.2 (0.1..0.3)
45 0.4 (0.3..0.7)
46 0.2 (0.7…0.9)
47 0.1 (0.9..1)
1

Aleatorio 0.92099179 valor [0 1)

CMOD Probabilidad Li CMOD

43 0.1 0 43
44 0.2 0.1 44
45 0.4 0.3 45
46 0.2 0.7 46
47 0.1 0.9 47

CMOD 45
1 46 CMOD FRECUENCIA PROBABILIDAD 0.45
2 45 43 524 0.1048 0.4
3 45 44 1055 0.211
0.35
4 45 45 1909 0.3818
5 46 46 1028 0.2056 0.3
6 45 47 484 0.0968 0.25
7 45 0.2
8 45
0.15
9 45
0.1
10 44
11 46 0.05
12 45 0
43
13 45
14 45
15 43
16 44
17 43
18 44
19 45
20 46
21 46
22 45
23 44
24 46
25 44
26 45
27 44
28 43
29 43
30 45
31 43
32 46
33 45
34 47
35 44
36 45
37 45
38 45
39 45
40 45
41 43
42 45
43 45
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de procesamiento estimados para el dispositivo,
o se describe en la distribución de probabilidad
e 0.1 de que el costo de mano de obra directo sea
idad más alta de 0.4 se asocia con el costo de
por unidad se describe mejor por una distribución
e tener los valores de $43, $44, $45, $46 o $47.

PROBABILIDAD
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
43 44 45 46 47
Distribución de probabilidad continua

Costo de las partes: Sanotronics no está relativamente seguro del valor del costo de las partes porque depende de
muchos factores, incluyendo la economía general, la demanda general por las partes y la política de costos de los
proveedores de partes de Sanotronics. Sanotronics está seguro de que el costo de las partes estará entre $80 y $100
por unidad, pero no está seguro de si cualquier valor particular entre $80 y $100 tiene más posibilidades que otros.
Por tanto, Sanotronics decide describir la incertidumbre en el costo de las partes con una distribución de
probabilidad uniforme, como se muestra en la figura 16.3. Los costos por unidad entre $80 y $100 son igualmente
probables. Una distribución de probabilidad uniforme es un ejemplo de una distribución de probabilidad continua;
esto significa que el costo de las partes puede tomar cualquier valor entre $80 y $100 con la misma probabilidad.

V. inf 80
Vsup 100
Rango 20

Cp 97.735995
s porque depende de
tica de costos de los
estará entre $80 y $100
posibilidades que otros.
ribución de
$100 son igualmente
robabilidad continua;
misma probabilidad.
Demanda del primer año Con base en la venta de dispositivos médicos comparables, Sanotronics cree que la dist
probabilidad normal que aparece en la figura 16.4 describe la demanda del primer año. La media o el valor esper
del primer año es 15,000 unidades. La desviación estándar de 4500 unidades describe la variabilidad de la deman
año. La distribución de probabilidad normal es una distribución de probabilidad continua en que cualquier valor e
valores mucho más pequeños o mucho mayores que la media son cada vez menos probables.

Media 15,000.00
Desv. Est 1,000.00
Aleatorio 0.61886257
Demanda (d) 15,302.49
es, Sanotronics cree que la distribución de
año. La media o el valor esperado de la demanda
ibe la variabilidad de la demanda en el primer
ntinua en que cualquier valor es posible, pero los
probables.
Modelo

Precio(p)
demanda (d)
Costos Administrativos y de publicidad (ca)
Costo de mano de obra directa por unidad (cl)
Costo de las partes por unidad (cp)

Utilidad
=B5*(B4-B7-B
*(B4-B7-B8)-B6