Colombia Telecommunications Report 2021

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Q2 2021
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Colombia
Telec
elecommunica
ommunications
tions R
Report
eport
Includes 10-year forecasts to 2030
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Colombia Telecommunications Report | Q2 2021
Contents
Key View............................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
SWOT .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5
Telecommunications SWOT..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Industry Forecast........................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................10

Covid-19 Respites Lift Latin America Telecoms Index, 5G And Fibre To Maintain Momentum..................................................................10
Colombia Risk/Reward Index.................................................................................................................................................................................................18
Market Overview..........................................................................................................................................................................19
Regulatory Development ..........................................................................................................................................................27
Competitive Landscape.............................................................................................................................................................31
Company Profile...........................................................................................................................................................................34
Claro Colombia ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................34
Movistar (Telefónica) .................................................................................................................................................................................................................37
TigoUNE .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................40
Colombia Demographic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................43
Telecommunications Glossary................................................................................................................................................46
Telecommunications Methodology.......................................................................................................................................47
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Key View
Key View: A surge in mobile broadband usage was seen in the first six months of 2020, likely driven by the Covid-19 emergency. If
usage can be sustained in the post-Covid-19 environment, this bodes well for operators' efforts to deepen 4G and fibre coverage, as
well as investments in 5G. While some 5G-specific frequencies were auctioned in 2019, more will become available in 2021/22 and
bidding is likely to be very competitive as the 'Big Three' are likely to go up against a reinvigorated Avantel following its takeover by
Novator Partners. However, as Colombia is something of a laggard in digital transformation, we do not expect the 5G market to be
very substantial by the end of our forecast period in 2030 and instead 4G will remain the most widely used technology. We expect
4G subcriptions will make up around three-quarters of the 83.6mn-strong mobile market by 2030.
5G To Remain Modest
Colombia: 5G Forecasts, 2020-2030
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions
Latest Updates And Industry Developments
• The latest data released by the regulator records a slight recovery in the mobile market after experiencing suppressed demand,
particularly in prepaid subscribers; the prepaid market is vulnerable to closures of physical retail outlet space. Assuming
subsequent waves of Covid-19 are limited or absent, we expect this recovery to continue into H121.
• Fixed broadband connections continued to dominate the broadband market, which experienced a considerable uptick in
demand over 2020 due to remote working and education, from 6.9mn live connections in September 2019 to 8mn a year later.
• Novatel Partners completed its investment in minor mobile player Avantel and began rebranding it as WOM. The company
has reached an interconnection agreement with Movistar, but Tigo and Claro have been reluctant to negotiate while
Avantel's rights to 700MHz spectrum are being clarified.
• 5G trial services were launched by Claro, Movistar and Tigo in the summer of 2020; they use 3G/4G frequencies as well as some
3.5GHz spectrum assigned for piloting purposes. 5G spectrum in the 2.5GHz and 3.5GHz, among other bands, will be auctioned
in late 2021.
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SWOT
Telecommunications SWOT
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • Strong regional players present in the market.
• Sustained year-on-year growth.
• Uptake of 4G services remains strong.
• The CRC is a proactive and effective regulator.
• Success of MVNOs suggests that competition remains a regulatory focus.
Weaknesses • Mobile market growth driven by the prepaid segment, and low use sees operators resorting to subscription
discounting.
• Forecast organic growth out to 2030 is not very strong, owing to already significant penetration on the
market.
• Claro's dominance remains an issue for market competition and growth.
• Fragmented and localised fibre market limits investment and wider deployment.
• Value of Colombian Peso has been volatile, particularly over 2020 when oil price shocks caused significant
depreciation against the dollar.
Opportunities • 4G an opportunity to generate more revenues from value-added and bundled services; content is a major
driver of revenues.
• Mobile financial services have large upside potential in the Colombian market, with TigoUNE potentially a
major player given its experience.
• Multi-play services offered, with broadband and pay-TV services showing strong growth potential.
• Current 5G trials by the three major operators but deployment will remain modest over the term of our
forecast period with mainly enterprise applications.
• Entry of new operator to increase competition.
Threats • High penetration rate means there is limited scope for further organic expansion. New subscribers
increasingly come from low-income brackets and more remote regions.
• Demand for faster networks may be limited beyond major cities, curbing operator expansion plans for
expensive infrastructure.
• Potential for a significant number of inactive mobile SIMs in the market.
• Entry of new operator, WOM, will threaten existing operators over 2022-2024.
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Industry Forecast
Key View: Looking beyond the immediate period of recovery from the Covid-19 crisis, we continue to believe that organic growth
opportunities have largely been captured in the mobile market and operators should now focus on migration to advanced 'digital-
first' service-provision strategies. In the wireline market, fixed voice continues to decline, albeit at a slow rate because of expansion of
fixed broadband. In fixed broadband, operators are expanding their advanced services, particularly FFTx, but we caution that the
fragmented nature of the market limits investment capacity from regional and local providers.
Latest Updates
• Claro, Tigo and Movistar have moved to initiate limited 5G services in the summer of 2020, leveraging existing 3G and 4G
frequencies as well as new spectrum auctioned at the end of 2019; more spectrum will be made available in 2021, but 5G will
not see rapid take-up in Colombia due to high costs and a lack of locally relevant usage cases.
• The government has belatedly published market data for the first nine months of 2020 and we have adjusted our 10-year
forecasts to account for the latest trends and developments. The short-term outlook is uncertain as numerous mobile and
wireline subscriptions were cancelled as consumers were unable to top-up prepaid accounts or acquire new phones and SIM
cards due to the Covid-19-enforced lockdowns in the first half of 2020.
• Regulator data showed a slight recovery of 0.9% on the quarter in Q320 as restrictions were lifted, recording 65.4mn subscribers,
up from 64.8mn in the previous quarter.
• Most growth will come from migrating subscribers to advanced services. In the mobile arena, 4G will continue to drive expansion,
although it will largely cannibalise existing 2G and 3G services; most organic growth will instead come from 5G as well as
augmented 4G offerings in the principal population and business centres.
• Fibre will also grow rapidly, cannibalising the xDSL market but only slowly encroaching on the cable broadband field. However, we
continue to caution that the fragmented nature of the market limits investment capacity from regional and local providers. In
Q121, Movistar launched a 500Mbps fibre service in Bogotá using the ETB's infrastructure. The rollout takes advantage of the
limited 4G connectivity in the densely-populated capital.
Structural Trends
Mobile
The Colombian mobile market has shown strong growth for the past few years (with the volatility seen in 2020 likely to be a blip
caused by the Covid-19 emergency, but we caution organic growth opportunities are dwindling.
Mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) have proved to be both a boon and a challenge for Colombia's mobile market. On the
one hand, the proliferation of low-cost 'no frills' services has addressed a user base previously unable to fully engage with mobile
services. On the other hand, MVNOs have cannibalised at least part of the host operators' prepaid market and forced down prices,
undermining investment-heavy expansion strategies.
The incumbents are focused on migrating customers to higher value 4G and LTE-A services, in part, to take advantage of the patchy
availability of wireline broadband services, particularly outside the major population centres. Operators will accelerate the migration
process through competitive tariffs and those with fixed infrastructure will increasingly focus on bundled services to attract and
retain customers. We expect the total market to reach 83.6mn subscriptions by the end of 2030, with 4G subscriptions accounting
for more than three-quarters of that user base. 5G, which is just beginning to be introduced by operators able to repurpose their
existing spectrum, will add to overall market growth, but it will still have only a modest profile by 2030 as it will primarily have
industrial applications and many Colombian businesses will still not be digital-ready by the end of the decade.
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Industry Trends - Mobile

2019-2030
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions, MinTiC
Wireline Voice And Broadband
We maintain a bullish broadband subscriber forecast for the period to 2030. We forecast approximately 10.3mn broadband
connections in 2030, up from around 8mn at the end of 2020. Operators will have to pursue new upselling strategies in order to
encourage subscriptions and grow revenue. Competition from other converged services players would pose upside risks to our
outlook in both broadband and pay-TV.
The rapid increase in the use of mobile internet is putting pressure on the market's fixed broadband operators to maintain their
appeal as the market expands. Data show that mobile broadband users have surpassed fixed broadband subscriber numbers, and
within the mobile sector 4G subscriptions overtook the number of 3G mobile internet subscriptions in 2017. Government initiatives,
such as removing VAT on domestic broadband connections and promoting broadband connections in rural areas will help to boost
demand.
Bundled services play a large part in maintaining the number of active lines in the market as operators report an increasing number
of wireline connections signed up to more than one service. TigoUNE, created through the merger of UNE EPM and mobile
operator Tigo in August 2014, and Movistar have reported growth in the uptake of bundled services which will present an increasing
challenge to Claro. Considering the fixed-line market in isolation, we believe organic growth opportunities are unlikely to arise in
future as customers make the switch to mobile telephony and find their fixed lines redundant. We expect consolidation to be the
most likely path for operators to drive growth in fixed lines. In the short run, we expect competition in bundled services and the
implementation of fixed number portability to stem the loss of wireline subscriptions, though these will decline over the forecast
period. We expect the fixed voice market to decline between 2020 and 2030 to around 5.5mn by the end of our forecast period.
We expect fibre to cannabalise the xDSL market, with growth strong over the medium term, from 1.1mn at the end of 2020 to
2.7mn in 2030. The fragmented and localised nature of fibre rollout limits investment sentiment, curbing wider deployment.
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Industry Trends – Wireline Sector

2019-2030
e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions, MinTiC
TELECOMS SECTOR - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS (COLOMBIA 2019-2024)

Indicator 2019 2020e 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f
Total mobile phone subscribers ('000) 66,283.2 67,078.6 68,084.8 69,106.0 70,557.2 72,956.2
Total mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants 131.7 131.8 132.8 134.2 136.5 140.8
3G subscriptions ('000) 8,227.4 6,894.6 5,591.5 4,283.1 2,985.3 1,558.3
4G subscriptions ('000) 21,305.9 28,336.8 35,987.8 46,424.2 54,316.3 59,422.1
5G subscriptions ('000) 26.0 248.0 870.6 2,089.5 3,990.9
Monthly blended ARPU, COP 17,511.3 18,279.0 18,297.3 18,407.1 18,609.6 18,907.3
Total fixed voice subscribers ('000) 7,012.3 6,879.0 6,693.3 6,479.1 6,265.3 6,096.1
Total fixed voice subscribers/100 Inhabitants 13.9 13.5 13.1 12.6 12.1 11.8
Total broadband subscriptions ('000) 7,374.8 8,219.1 8,753.1 9,059.5 9,344.0 9,599.7
Total broadband subscriptions/100 Inhabitants 14.7 16.2 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5
Fitch Solutions/Operators
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TELECOMS SECTOR - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS (COLOMBIA 2025-2030)

Indicator 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f
Total mobile phone subscribers ('000) 76,312.2 79,135.7 81,193.3 82,654.7 83,481.3 83,648.2
Total mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants 146.7 151.5 154.6 156.4 157.1 156.6
3G subscriptions ('000) 637.4 178.5 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
4G subscriptions ('000) 64,175.8 66,742.9 67,543.8 66,530.6 64,474.8 61,457.4
5G subscriptions ('000) 6,505.2 9,692.8 12,988.3 16,105.5 19,004.5 22,190.8
Monthly blended ARPU, COP 19,266.5 19,728.9 20,301.1 20,991.3 21,810.0 22,769.6
Total fixed voice subscribers ('000) 5,949.8 5,824.9 5,720.0 5,634.2 5,566.6 5,516.5
Total fixed voice subscribers/100 Inhabitants 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3
Total broadband subscriptions ('000) 9,818.4 10,008.6 10,160.1 10,265.5 10,314.0 10,303.7
Total broadband subscriptions/100 Inhabitants 18.9 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions, MinTIC
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Industry Risk/Reward Index

Covid-19 Respites Lift Latin America Telecoms Index, 5G And Fibre To
Maintain Momentum
Key View
• The overall score for the Latin American Telecommunications market within our Risk/Reward Index (RRI) is unchanged from last
quarter, at 51.2 points out of a potential 100. This masks the fact that all 20 Latin American markets we survey have had core
industry, demographic, economic and political risk data reviewed and refreshed.
• We have also extended our long-term 10-year forecast outlook to 2030, which accentuates the rate of slowdown in market
growth in the longer term.
• Eight countries change positions on the Index, with Nicaragua being the most notable outperformer as a long-overdue data
update has been completed.
Changes are apparent in most countries' scores across both the Rewards and Risk pillars, most notably the Industry Rewards and
Country Risk fields, and eight countries have moved up or down the league table as a result. Nicaragua has been the principal
beneficiary from the latest review, seeing its overall score improve by 5.5 points as the regulator released - for the first time in almost
a decade - new data that give greater insights into the size and value of the market. Nevertheless, the country moves up only one
place and remains one of the least attractive and accessible markets in the region.
Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Profiles

Q2 2021
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = lower risk. Source: Fitch Solutions' Telecommunications Risk/Reward Index
At the time of compiling the latest Index, operator- and regulator-reported market data went only as far as the third quarter of 2020,
a point in time by which only a handful of countries were beginning to recover from the impact of Covid-19 driven lockdowns on
sales of new phones and connections. A Q320 resurgence in mobile subscriptions growth, continued uptake of fibre and the
ongoing transition from low-cost prepaid services to higher-value subscription packages drove increases in Industry Rewards scores
and we believe this has continued into early 2021. That said, an accelerated migration from traditional pay-TV services, lower
income from international roaming and a shift from premium triple-play bundles to simpler packages that still allow access to third-
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party over-the-top (OTT) offerings present downside risks that operators will need to substitute with increased offerings in the
enterprise space, where they will naturally dominate.
The region is still far from being digitally mature, however, despite the proliferation of 4G and fibre as well as domestic data
warehousing and processing. State-owned and private enterprises alike will be sceptical about the value-add proposition of
specialised communications and connectivity while immature Industry 4.0 use cases offer only limited returns on investment.
Nevertheless, industrialised economies such as Brazil, Chile and Mexico will offer considerable opportunities for digital-first
companies in the long term, and their high standing on the Index reflects that potential.
Post-Covid Recovery To Continue, Driven By 4G/5G And Fibre Investments

Latin America Telecoms RRI Scores, Q2 2021
Note: Scores out of 100, with higher scores denoting lower risks. Source: Fitch Solutions
Brazil's overall score increases by 3.1 points in this quarter's update, returning it to third place on the Index after being hit badly by
Covid-19 in 2020. The market's robustness is largely due to its sheer size and continued growth opportunities in rural areas and
upgrade potential in urban areas. Changes in the definition of mobile broadband connections saw the removal of millions of
wireless-connected payment terminals from official subscriber data in 2020, revealing stronger than expected rates of growth in
mobile phone connections. Continued expansion of 4G networks and the falling cost of both smartphones and data packages are
driving this growth. Meanwhile, there is considerable momentum building in the FTTx market, with the major operators accelerating
their last-mile fibre buildouts to offer a real alternative to 'good enough' mobile broadband. This will be sustained over the medium
term before investments will need to be reined-in so that 5G deployments can begin in earnest. The break-up of Oi and the
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potential spin-off of other players' passive infrastructure represents a huge opportunity for infrastructure-focused investors and will
contribute to diversification in the industry.
Colombia edges ahead of Costa Rica in this quarter's update, benefiting from a 1.5-point improvement in its overall score. In part,
this was due to the inclusion of two quarters' worth of data that the regulator had struggled to collect sooner due to the Covid-19
crisis; the new data showed that the country had weathered the emergency better than expected, with the municipal players better
placed to hold onto customers than the mobile-only or mobile-led private operators. A small improvement in the Country Rewards
score derived from increased GDP per capita figures, implying greater potential for a recovery in spending on communications
services, which was borne out by operators' Q320 data. The overall score might have been a little higher had there not been a
markdown in Colombia's Country Risks score, where long-term political economic risks have increased over concerns that current
growth momentum is not sustainable.
Mexico's overall score decreases by a modest 0.7 points this quarter, but it is enough to push the country down by one place to
eighth position. There are very small downgrades to the Rewards scores as the new forecast window introduces slower growth for
the 2029-2030 period. This is almost offset by small improvements in both the Industry Risks and Country Risks categories; the
former due to renewed efforts to combat downward pricing spirals as well as pushing ahead with the licensing of new services, while
the latter is due to a more positive short-term economic outlook for the country as the Morena Party seems likely to fend off
challenges from strengthening political coalitions in upcoming mid-term elections.
Finally, Nicaragua has moved up one place into 18th position on the league table. We have been able to update our forecast
engine with actual historical data from the regulator for the first time since 2012. Although our expectations regarding the
development of the wireline voice market proved relatively accurate, we had under-estimated growth in the mobile voice and fixed
broadband arenas. Mobile growth has been rather volatile, however, and recent quarters are likely to have seen downward growth as
a result of the pandemic, but the new data suggest that a robust recovery is very likely, even though the low-value prepaid segment
will be the main beneficiary. Meanwhile, fixed broadband growth has been fairly reliable over the last decade, although the base
remains quite small. The market remains dominated by the usual regional players; despite Telefonica's withdrawal, the market is
not attracting much interest from seasoned industry players, highlighting its lack of appeal in terms of return on investment
potential.
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LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS RISK/REWARD INDEX, Q2 2021

Industry Country Industry Country Regional Global
REWARDS RISKS RRI
Rewards Rewards Risks Risks Rank Rank
Chile 79.5 62.5 73.5 96.6 74.4 85.5 77.1 1 10
Peru 72.7 58.1 67.6 85.6 53.4 69.5 68.2 2 34
Brazil 67.9 59.0 64.8 69.6 57.7 63.7 64.4 3 47
Panama 61.9 60.8 61.5 69.6 63.7 66.6 63.0 4 49
Colombia 63.2 59.1 61.8 69.6 56.2 62.9 62.1 5 51
Costa Rica 66.6 60.3 64.4 37.3 62.1 49.7 60.0 6 54
Paraguay 69.0 53.6 63.6 54.0 46.6 50.3 59.6 7 56
Mexico 59.0 62.1 60.1 54.0 59.8 56.9 59.1 8 59
Uruguay 56.2 66.8 59.9 37.3 67.8 52.5 57.7 9 63
Argentina 57.5 65.7 60.3 54.0 45.1 49.5 57.1 10 65
Ecuador 54.0 54.1 54.0 25.6 43.7 34.7 48.2 11 93
Guatemala 51.0 50.4 50.8 37.3 39.7 38.5 47.1 12 95
Belize 47.3 44.6 46.3 37.3 31.4 34.4 42.7 13 123
El Salvador 44.9 54.1 48.1 18.1 34.5 26.3 41.6 14 131
Honduras 41.6 47.4 43.7 37.3 35.5 36.4 41.5 15 133
Bolivia 42.4 54.3 46.6 10.7 33.8 22.2 39.3 16 141
Guyana 46.2 46.4 46.2 10.7 31.2 20.9 38.6 17 144
Nicaragua 46.0 44.1 45.3 10.7 31.7 21.2 38.1 18 147
Suriname 15.8 56.6 30.1 54.0 23.8 38.9 32.7 19 180
Venezuela 24.7 52.1 34.3 6.0 5.1 5.6 25.7 20 195
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~
Regional Average 53.4 55.6 54.1 43.8 44.9 44.3 51.2 ~ ~
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = more attractive market. Source: Fitch Solutions
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LATIN AMERICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY REWARDS, Q2 2021

Subscriber
ARPU (USD) Postpaid Share Competitive Landscape INDUSTRY REWARDS REWARDS
Growth
Chile 78.9 62.3 78.9 97.7 79.5 73.5
Peru 82.9 45.7 72.9 89.2 72.7 67.6
Brazil 51.3 44.2 78.4 97.7 67.9 64.8
Panama 19.6 90.7 62.8 74.4 61.9 61.5
Colombia 67.3 47.2 63.8 74.4 63.2 61.8
Costa Rica 71.4 53.8 66.8 74.4 66.6 64.4
Paraguay 72.9 49.7 64.3 89.2 69.0 63.6
Mexico 31.7 47.7 58.8 97.7 59.0 60.1
Uruguay 15.6 70.9 76.9 61.3 56.2 59.9
Argentina 38.2 24.6 77.9 89.2 57.5 60.3
Ecuador 48.2 40.2 66.3 61.3 54.0 54.0
Guatemala 52.8 58.0 47.7 45.5 51.0 50.8
Belize 66.3 62.8 14.6 45.5 47.3 46.3
El Salvador 27.1 54.8 52.3 45.5 44.9 48.1
Honduras 12.6 61.3 47.2 45.5 41.6 43.7
Bolivia 65.8 7.0 51.3 45.5 42.4 46.6
Guyana 77.4 65.3 38.2 3.8 46.2 46.2
Nicaragua 62.3 33.4 42.7 45.5 46.0 45.3
Suriname 31.2 1.0 24.1 6.8 15.8 30.1
Venezuela 2.0 3.0 48.2 45.5 24.7 34.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Regional Average 48.8 46.2 56.7 61.8 53.4 54.1
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LATIN AMERICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS COUNTRY REWARDS, Q2 2021

Urban/
Youth Population (24& under) GDP per capita COUNTRY REWARDS REWARDS
Rural Split
Chile 85.4 32.7 69.3 62.5 73.5
Peru 72.9 48.7 52.8 58.1 67.6
Brazil 84.4 39.2 53.3 59.0 64.8
Panama 60.3 53.8 68.3 60.8 61.5
Colombia 78.9 46.2 52.3 59.1 61.8
Costa Rica 78.4 38.2 64.3 60.3 64.4
Paraguay 49.2 64.3 47.2 53.6 63.6
Mexico 75.4 53.3 57.8 62.1 60.1
Uruguay 94.0 37.7 68.8 66.8 59.9
Argentina 91.0 49.7 56.3 65.7 60.3
Ecuador 53.3 59.3 49.7 54.1 54.0
Guatemala 34.2 73.4 43.7 50.4 50.8
Belize 29.6 65.8 38.2 44.6 46.3
El Salvador 66.8 58.3 37.2 54.1 48.1
Honduras 47.2 68.8 26.1 47.4 43.7
Bolivia 62.3 67.3 33.2 54.3 46.6
Guyana 11.6 62.3 65.3 46.4 46.2
Nicaragua 47.7 63.8 20.6 44.1 45.3
Suriname 54.8 55.8 59.3 56.6 30.1
Venezuela 86.4 55.3 14.6 52.1 34.3
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Regional Average 63.2 54.7 48.9 55.6 54.1
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = lower risk. Source: Fitch Solutions' Telecommunications Risk/Reward Index.
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LATIN AMERICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY RISKS, Q2 2021

Regulatory
Regulator Resources & Openness INDUSTRY RISKS RISKS
Independence
Chile 98.5 94.7 96.6 85.5
Peru 88.2 82.9 85.6 69.5
Brazil 69.8 69.3 69.6 63.7
Panama 69.8 69.3 69.6 66.6
Colombia 69.8 69.3 69.6 62.9
Costa Rica 33.4 41.2 37.3 49.7
Paraguay 52.0 56.0 54.0 50.3
Mexico 52.0 56.0 54.0 56.9
Uruguay 33.4 41.2 37.3 52.5
Argentina 52.0 56.0 54.0 49.5
Ecuador 22.4 28.9 25.6 34.7
Guatemala 33.4 41.2 37.3 38.5
Belize 33.4 41.2 37.3 34.4
El Salvador 15.6 20.6 18.1 26.3
Honduras 33.4 41.2 37.3 36.4
Bolivia 8.3 13.1 10.7 22.2
Guyana 8.3 13.1 10.7 20.9
Nicaragua 8.3 13.1 10.7 21.2
Suriname 52.0 56.0 54.0 38.9
Venezuela 5.0 7.0 6.0 5.6
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Regional Average 42.0 45.6 43.8 44.3
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LATIN AMERICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS COUNTRY RISKS, Q2 2021

L-T S-T L-T S-T Operational COUNTRY
RISKS
Economic Economic Political Political Risk RISKS
Chile 76.4 74.4 81.4 53.3 80.4 74.4 85.5
Peru 68.3 69.8 47.2 28.6 53.3 53.4 69.5
Brazil 73.9 65.8 62.3 42.0 51.3 57.7 63.7
Panama 63.3 64.1 61.8 59.3 66.8 63.7 66.6
Colombia 65.1 67.3 48.7 43.7 56.3 56.2 62.9
Costa Rica 62.3 55.8 72.9 52.8 64.6 62.1 49.7
Paraguay 66.3 68.3 47.7 30.7 33.2 46.6 50.3
Mexico 73.4 76.1 41.7 50.8 58.3 59.8 56.9
Uruguay 69.8 70.9 79.9 62.3 61.8 67.8 52.5
Argentina 45.7 31.2 57.3 31.7 52.3 45.1 49.5
Ecuador 59.8 64.8 32.2 19.1 43.2 43.7 34.7
Guatemala 75.9 72.9 17.6 12.6 29.6 39.7 38.5
Belize 4.5 9.0 52.0 55.0 33.9 31.4 34.4
El Salvador 42.7 40.5 42.7 11.6 34.7 34.5 26.3
Honduras 63.3 62.8 18.1 10.6 29.1 35.5 36.4
Bolivia 60.3 51.0 23.6 22.6 22.6 33.8 22.2
Guyana 39.7 42.2 26.6 27.1 25.6 31.2 20.9
Nicaragua 38.7 51.0 12.6 38.4 24.6 31.7 21.2
Suriname 7.0 4.0 36.2 21.1 37.2 23.8 38.9
Venezuela 0.0 0.5 13.1 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.6
Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0

Regional Average 52.8 52.1 43.8 34.0 43.2 44.9 44.3
Note: Scores out of 100; higher score = lower risk. Source: Fitch Solutions' Telecommunications Risk/Reward Index.
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Colombia Risk/Reward Index

Key View: Colombia's aggregate telecoms score improved slightly to 63.1 points out of 100 in the Q121 Risk/Reward Index, staying
above the regional average of 50.7. The Colombian telecoms market is quite mature and the entrenched nature of the municipal
players offers little scope for new investors at the infrastructure level.
Rewards
• Compared with the Latin America regional Industry Rewards average of 52.4, Colombia has a relatively high score of 60.0. The
size of its population and level of GDP provide strong opportunities, especially in terms of more advanced services.
• The Colombian telecoms market is quite mature and, in the wireline market, the entrenched nature of the municipal players
offers little scope for new investors at the infrastructure level.
Risks
• The Communications Regulatory Commission (CRC) is a proactive and prudent regulator and this is reflected in Colombia's score
of 69.2 out of 100 in the Industry Risk sub-component of our proprietary Telecoms Risk/Reward Index. The country does not
reach a higher score as regulatory power is split between the CRC and the Autoridad Nacional de Televisión for broadcasting,
while municipal governments also hold considerable sway in decision-making processes.
• Even allowing for the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Colombia's macroeconomic environment will remain uncertain in the
short term, and this will likely affect high-value data and value-added services, keeping growth in the post-paid sector subdued.
Colombia Vs Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Profile

Q2 2021
Note: Scores out of 100, with higher scores indicating lower risks. Source: Fitch Solutions
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Market Overview
Market Drivers And Trends
Recent Developments
• The latest regulator data records a slight recovery in the size of the mobile market in Q320, rising by 0.6% q-o-q and 0.9% y-o-y
to 65.4mn subscribers. The mobile market experienced suppressed demand in H220 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and strict
lockdowns, with consumers reining in their spending.
• Q320 data from the regulator on the wireline market indicates a 7.9% rise y-o-y in Q320, with 7.99mn wireline subscribers.
We believe some buoyancy was provided by a move to work from home and home entertainment.
• Operators' own data, which tends to be less detailed and prone to inflation through the use of different 'activity' criteria, suggest
that the market recovered on a number of fronts in the second half of 2020. However, the principal TV and media authority was
liquidated in 2020 and there are, as yet, no new comprehensive pay-TV market data available for analysis.
• One interesting development in late summer was the launch of limited 5G services by the three principal mobile network
operators, using spectrum acquired at auction in December 2019 as well as spectrum used by their legacy 2G/3G/4G services.
Avantel, which was taken over by new owners in 2020 and which also acquired spectrum in 2019, has struggled to establish
interconnection agreements with its peers owing to a dispute over its rights to the highly prized 700MHz frequencies it inherited.
Consequently, it is operating at a competitive and operational disadvantage to its peers and will lag behind in the race to 5G.
As opportunities for growth with basic services in urban areas have been largely exploited, market growth in Colombia is being
achieved by upselling premium services to existing consumers on one hand and the provision of low cost services to rural and low-
income subscribers on the other hand. The adoption of 4G, driven by the increased availability of low-cost smartphones, as well as
lower pricing of voice and data services, continue to be drivers of growth. Untapped demand will contribute to the uptake of IPTV
and fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) services.
Mobile
Mobile subscription growth has been healthy in Colombia, with the market positing significant gains in virtually every quarter over
the past few years. We estimate that mobile penetration reached 129% in Q320, indicating that the mobile voice market nears
saturation. Mobile penetration decreased over the first nine months of 2020 due to a slight narrowing of the mobile market as the
pandemic-associated lockdowns meant that prepaid accounts could not be topped up and job losses curtailed consumer spending
on non-essential services. Market growth will progressively slow over the coming years, as market dynamics move from rapid
organic growth to the migration of existing customers to higher value services. It remains to be seen whether the slight recovery in
Q320 will be sustained into H121, or whether second and third waves of Covid-19 infections will have similar impact to the first.
Operator data for Q420 suggests that the recovery continued to the end of 2020.
All operators have seen new subscribers and while Claro does maintain its leading position, it appears to have been most affected
by the launch of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), with its market share having decreased slightly over the last three years.
We believe there are still some organic prospects left in the voice market, particularly in rural areas. Further growth will stem from
the migration of existing customers to 4G and post-paid services. With the penetration rate now surpassing 130%, it is possible the
market will begin to see signs of saturation. Growth has been mainly generated in the prepaid sector, resulting in post-paid
subscriptions accounting for only about a fifth of the market, with little change since 2014.
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Market Heads To Saturation

Mobile Subscriptions Growth, 2018-2020
Source: MinTiC, Fitch Solutions.
MVNOs have been driving market growth for several years, but their appeal has dwindled as many consumers are moving up the
value chain to join either MVNOs with a broader range of services (Virgin Mobile, for example) or taking up premium services
offered by the network operators.
As of June 2020, there were four notable MVNOs left in the market, after Uff! withdrew in 2018 due to its poor financial position.
Suma Movil is the newest entrant, having launched in early 2018, but it has struggled to attract customers owing to the stronger
offerings of its peers; unless it can grow faster, and in short order, it may suffer the same fate as Uff! MVNOs served 4.86mn
subscribers as of June 2020, down from 5.11mn a year earlier. They accounted for just short of 7.5% of the market as of mid-2020.
The largest, Virgin Mobile, with 2.82mn subscribers, has enjoyed considerable success in the market but, owing to its dependence
on prepaid services, was hit hard by the Covd-19 crisis of 2020 and its user base shrank appreciably year-on-year. Having entered
Colombia in April 2013, operating via Movistar's network, Virgin maintains a low-price strategy and targets the younger population.
Consequently, it ought to be well placed to recover once the emergency is over.
Exito Group has an MVNO and this player fared better than Virgin during the crisis, adding 18,000 subscribers during the second
quarter, possibly because it was better-stocked than its rival but also because it could rely on online servicing channels to maintain
momentum. Nevertheless, it still lags behind the MVNO leader, by more than 1mn customers.
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Operators And MVNOs Expand Their Bases

Mobile Subscribers By Operator (000), 2018-2020
Source: MinTiC, Fitch Solutions
The 'Big Three' network operators are Movistar, Claro and Tigo, with Claro continuing to dominate, with a market share of 48.9% at
the end of September 2020. The company was able to add new customers in the second quarter, which neither of its rivals was able
to manage. Movistar has been shedding customers since late 2019, but mainly in the low-value prepaid arena, which it has
managed to mitigate by growing its post-paid base through bundling with wireline voice, broadband and pay-TV services. The
operator could move to private ownership in 2021 as Telefonica prepares to sell its Latin American businesses in order to focus on
its European Internet of Things-focused investments. Movistar leads Tigo by 4.5mn subscribers and the gap between them has not
altered appreciably for some time.
Claro and Tigo disclose average revenue per user (ARPU) data regularly, albeit in different currencies and leveraging different
exchange rates, which might colour our comparisons. Movistar's ARPU figures have been converted from euro to local currency
using our exchange rates, while Tigo's numbers have been converted from US dollars. As a result, the numbers reflect exchange rate
volatility. Declining ARPU figures reflect the aggressive price competition in the market. Finally, it should be noted that we have had
to estimate Movistar's ARPU for 2020 as parent Telefonica has ceased reporting detailed key performance indicators for all of its for-
sale businesses.
For the third quarter of 2020, Tigo had by far the highest blended monthly ARPU of COP28,437, compared to Claro's
COP17,509 and Movistar's COP12,897. Tigo's ARPU is higher than might be expected for this price-sensitive market, especially given
Tigo's predisposition towards low prices. However, its regular disconnection of inactive prepaid SIMs and the increased 4G data
revenues per user help keep ARPUs high. Each of the operators recorded an increase on their ARPUs in the third quarter, up from
the second. This is most likely due to impressive postpaid additions in the third quarter as retail points of sale reopened on the back
of relaxing restrictions. The upwards trend in ARPU continued for Movistar and Tigo, but Claro reported a decrease in Q420 despite
adding 201,000 postpaid subscribers over the quarter.
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Tigo Retains ARPU Superiority

Monthly Blended Mobile ARPU (COP), 2018-2020
Note: Movistar estimated for 2020 as data are no longer reported. Source: Operators, Fitch Solutions
In 2018, Claro, Movistar and Tigo all launched their LTE-Advanced services in the country. It is expected that 4G and LTE-A services
will drive up data revenues and sales of premium devices. Smartphone adoption is robust and data consumption is rising
accordingly, with the regulator noting mobile data traffic volumes had increased sharply in the first six months of 2020 versus the
comparable period of the previous year, up by almost 56% y-o-y to 82,283.8TB. Data traffic in Q320 was up 8% y-o-y to 37,143.5TB,
but representing a 12.3% decrease from Q220, likely as the lockdowns were lifted and workers and students returned to the office
and school.
The adoption of high-value data services will most likely remain limited to the affluent urban population. While the total number of
designated mobile data services has not increased significantly over recent years, the share of 4G subscriptions had risen to
account for about one third of that market by the end of September 2020.
In the summer of 2020, Claro, Movistar and Tigo all began limited trials of 5G services, using spectrum acquired at auction in
December 2019 as well as resources previously used to deliver 3G and 4G services. The 3.5GHz band is being used at present for
technical trials only and an auction of commercial 2.5GHz and 3.5GHz licences is currently scheduled for late 2021 or early 2022.
In the December 2019 spectrum auction, Novator Partners successfully secured spectrum in the 700MHz and 2,500MHz bands.
In July 2020, Novator Partners acquired a majority stake in minor mobile network operator Avantel, which in November 2020 was
rebranded as WOM (Novator's Chilean unit also uses the WOM brand). Avantel has sought to reach interconnection agreements
with the Big Three players; it needs a nationwide infrastructure footprint to make full use of its spectrum as per its licence
obligations, but it will take several years to expand its current network. Only Movistar had signed such an agreement as of late 2020;
Claro and Tigo had refused to deal with Avantel, with the latter taking the issue back to the regulator. In Q420, the regulator backed
WOM, giving it rights to access Claro's and Tigo's networks, requiring them both to make interconnection arrangements. Claro
completed the technical arrangements in February.
According to government statistics, Avantel had 1.48mn mobile subscribers as of June 2020, down from 2.33mn a year earlier and a
high of 2.38mn in Q319. If an interconnection deal with Tigo and Claro cannot be reached, Novator's investment in Colombia could
be at risk.
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4G Driving Momentum, While 3G Declines

3G & 4G Subscribers ('000), 2018-2020
Wireline Voice And Broadband
Colombia's wireline market is highly fragmented, consisting of a large number of local and regional municipal incumbents, as well as
private concessionaires. There were approximately 7.3mn lines in service at the end of September 2020, slightly up from 6.94mn a
year earlier.
Claro, Movistar and Tigo have a strong presence in the fixed voice sector, followed by municipally owned ETB, which provides
services in Bogotá. There are several dozen similarly structured municipal operators, such as EmCali (which is active in Cali); these
entities tend to enjoy a virtual monopoly within their concession areas.
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Converged Players Dominate In Fixed Voice

Wireline Voice Market Shares, Q320
Total broadband subscriptions reached 8mn in September 2020, up from 6.9mn a year earlier. Fixed broadband connections
dominate the market and accounted for 7.66mn subscriptions as of June 2020, while the regulator reported just 333,000 dedicated
mobile broadband subscriptions (dongles and M2M connections), down significantly from the 418,000 recorded in the previous
quarter, most likely due to people returning to the office and school, no longer needing an internet connection at home.
In spite of a strong take-up of wireline broadband services and regulation from July 2019 strengthening competition among web
providers in new buildings, we see downside risk to innovation and investment due to the fragmented nature of wireline services
market. Cash-strapped municipal players which operate legacy networks may be unable to roll out next-generation networks in line
with demand.
Cable dominates the Colombian wireline broadband market. Although the larger operators are investing in DOCSIS 3.0 or 4.0
upgrades, the smaller players do not have the resources or demand to justify upgrades. FTTH uptake is beginning to accelerate,
although the impetus is mainly coming from the largest operators, keen to exploit consumers' and businesses' frustrations with
slower cable and xDSL connection speeds as well as the limitations of 4G connectvity in densely built-up areas. Movistar launched a
500Mbps fibre service in Bogotá using the ETB's infrastructure in February 2021.
The ETB and wholesale fibre provider UFINET announced in February 2021 their collaboration to commercialise a wholesale fibre
network in the capital and some neighbouring towns, connecting around 1.2mn homes in the first phase and then additional 2.5mn
in the following three years.
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Fragmented Market Limits Investments

Fixed Broadband Subscriptions By Operator ('000), 2017-2020
FTTx Uptake Driven By Slow Cable And Limited 4G

Fixed Broadband Accesses By Technology ('000), 2018-2020
Pay-TV/Convergence
Colombia's national TV authority Autoridad Nacional de Televisión (ANTV) has been liquidated, with its underlying financial and
organisational issues having been exacerbated by the Covid-19 emergency. The telecoms regulator and the MinTiC are not set up
to track this market, so there are no new data to report. Similarly, cable operators do not report data, while the telecoms players with
TV offerings offer data inconsistently.
The most recent ANTV data suggested there were 5.9mn pay-TV subscribers in Colombia in June 2019, up by 150,800 y-o-y.
Although IPTV services are widely available, the ANTV never tracked subscriber numbers and engagement rates.
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Cable maintains its lead in the market owing to the fact that municipal authorities provide networks and services almost on a
utilities basis, meaning that services are widely and cheaply available. We believe the ageing cable network is gradually being
replaced with newer technology, leading to the growth of satellite subscriptions.
PAY-TV SUBSCRIPTIONS BY OPERATOR ('000)

Operator Jun-19
Claro 2,514
Une-Tigo 1,190
DirectTV 1,107
Telefonica 545
HV TV 165
ETB 114
Others 308
Source: ANTV, Fitch Solutions
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Regulatory Development
Industry Risks
Colombia scores highly in terms of industry risks, scoring 69.7 points out of a potential 100 on our latest Latin America Risk/Reward
Index, well above the regional average of 43.8 points. Colombia's industry risk score is third highest in the region - joint with Panama
and Brazil, and reflects the Communications Regulatory Commission (CRC)'s performance. The CRC functions as a prudent
and proactive regulator that effectively manages the telecommunications market, fosters liberalised competition and actively
improves the quality of and access to telecommunications in the country.
The CRC's active policy agenda towards digitising the telecoms sector, boosting internet access, ensuring nationwide connectivity
and assisting with the uptake of new mobile technologies and data services, all bode well for investors seeking to exploit advanced
service opportunities in the country. The industry risk score is bolstered by healthy competition between the multitude of operators
and MVNOs. However, Claro's strong market share of close to 50% acts as a drag on the industry.
In September 2017, Colombia's Ministry of Information and Communications (MinTIC) announced the first plans to create a
convergent regulator for the telecoms sector. At that time, four entities were responsible for overseeing the Colombian telecoms
market. These were the MinTIC, the CRC, the National Spectrum Agency (ANE) and the National Television Authority (ANTV). This
fragmentation in regulatory functions created unnecessary hurdles for convergence players seeking to develop new innovative
offerings. The new Comision de Regulacion de Comunicaciones (CRC) was established in 2020 and is charged with
streamlining licensing processes and attracting greater investment to the sector.
Strong Regulator And Proactive Policy Boosts Score

Industry Risk Scores, Latin America (Q221)
Note: Scores out of 100, with high scores denoting low risk. Source: Fitch Solutions
Main Development: New Converged Regulator
The MinTIC continues being responsible of the monitoring and control of the sector, except in subjects related to the protection of
users and anti-competitive practices, which would still be the responsibility of the Superintendence of Industry and Commerce. The
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ANE continues to function as an adviser in spectrum management.
In February 2020, the Colombian government announced the creation of a unified regulator for the country's telecommunications,
audiovisual and postal sectors. The new CRC is composed of a communications division including current ICT Minister Sylvia
Constain (who can delegate to the Vice Minister of Connectivity and Digitalisation) plus four commissioners, and an Audiovisual
Content division with three more commissioners.
Main Developments: Spectrum Auctions, 5G Pilots And Avantel Take-Over
In December 2017, the MinTIC increased wireless spectrum caps in an effort to help operators increase the capacities of their
networks. The cap covering the sub-1GHz ‘low bands’ (689-960MHz) was raised from 30MHz to 45MHz per operator, while the cap
in the ‘high bands’ (1710-2690MHz) was raised from 85MHz to 90MHz.
The spectrum cap alteration was a prerequisite for the auction of frequencies in the 700MHz and 1,900MHz bands. Conducted in
December 2019, the latest action of mobile spectrum raised COP5trn. Claro secured 30MHz in the sought-after 2.5GHz band and
20MHz in the 700MHz band. Private equity investment company Novator Partners, owner of Chile-based WOM, won 30MHz in
the 2.5GHz band and 20MHz in the 700MHz band, which is especially apt for service roll-out in vaster, rural areas. Finally, Tigo
acquired 40MHz in the 700MHz band while Movistar did not gain any spectrum in the auction. 10MHz in the 700MHz band were
left over and spectrum in the 1.9GHz band did not receive any offers. The auction had initially been scheduled for early 2015,
meaning operators had been struggling with diminishing capacity as they rolled out more advanced, bandwidth-hungry services.
The licences are valid for a period of 10 years; however, within five years of allocation, operators will need to have upgraded their
networks to the best technology standards.
The regulator has confirmed that next spectrum auction and the first to include bands for 5G use, will take place in Q421.
Novator Buys Avantel
Novator subsequently acquired a majority stake in minor mobile network operator, Avantel. The terms and value of the investment
were not disclosed, but Novator quickly rebranded the company as WOM and outlined plans to establish a near-nationwide
footprint through interconnection agreements with established players while it built out its own infrastructure. Movistar signed one
such agreement, but Claro and Tigo were reluctant to do so, claiming that granting Avantel access to Novator's 700MHz spectrum
when Avantel had not been the signatory to the spectrum licence constituted a violation of the spectrum rules. Novator states that
the spectrum licence has been returned to the regulator to ensure that ownership rights are clarified.
The restructured Avantel/WOM will launch a full commercial service in 2021, at which point the legacy Avantel iDEN system will be
switched off and WOM will be fully focused on 4G LTE and development of a 5G offering.
5G Trials Begin, Spectrum Auction Deferred
In Q220, MinTiC permitted several operators to make use of the 3.5GHz band on a limited basis to run trials of 5G technology in
Colombia. Movistar utilised equipment provided by Huawei Technologies to test tele-health and tele-education applications,
Claro began work on a system covering Bogota, Medellin, Cali and Bucaramanga using equipment from Nokia but subsequently
launched 5G services using its 700MHz spectrum in Eastern Bogota in July. Tigo began rolling out a service using 700MHz spectrum
in April 2020, focusing on Bogota, Medellin and Barranquilla.
The municipal operator in Bogota, ETB, has been trialling 5G for use in security applications. Specialised solutions providers have
also secured temporary 3.5GHz licences: ITICS is active in Bogota and is using just 20MHz of spectrum while Xiro Investment
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Group is using 100MHz in the 3.5GHz band as well as 5MHz in the 585MHz band. All other pilot operators are using 100MHz of
spectrum in the 3.5GHz band.
In September 2020, pay-TV operator DirecTV (a subsidiary of US-based AT&T) launched a fixed-5G service, using the 700MHz
spectrum it has held since 2013. The Massive-MIMO based network was initially focused on Bogota. DirecTV already offers a fixed 4G
service, launched in mid-2014, which served approximately 190,000 subscribers at the end of June 2020. AT&T is seeking to divest
DirecTV and the Colombian unit could be of interest to Novator or other players with a limited mobile or wireline base.
In November 2020, MinTiC confirmed that auctions of 5G spectrum and formal operating licences would commence in late 2021 or
early 2022. Spectrum in the 700MHz, 1900MHz, 2.5GHz and 3.5GHz ranges would be offered.
• Claro, WOM and ETB have already expressed interest in the 700MHz band, although ETB will not be ready to take it on until 2022.
• ETB is the sole entity currently interested in the 1,900MHz band; its preference is to take this on in 2022.
• Claro, ETB, Movistar and WOM are all interested in the 2.5GHz band; all bar ETB are keen to bid as soon as possible, although
ETB would prefer the auction be delayed to 2022.
• Finally, Claro, Emcali (another municipal operator), ETB, Movistar and Tigo have all expressed interested in 3.5GHz spectrum;
Claro, ETB and Movistar want to wait until late 2022, while Emcali's preference is for early 2021. Tigo has not expressed a
preference.
Evolving Resources Landscape

Operator Spectrum Holdings (MHz), Q121
Source: MINTIC, Fitch Solutions
Additional Developments
2021
• In February, the CRC declared Claro as the dominant player in Colombia's mobile market, meaning that it is subject to additional
monitoring. Representatives from rival operators asked the CRC to recognise Claro as the dominant player in 2019.
• Also in February, the regulator announced an initiative to provide free internet data and telephone usage to 165,000 low-income
students. The news comes after the rapid increase in demand for data precipitated by the uptake of remote education.
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2020
• At the end of Q420, MinTIC and the spectrum regulator, ANE, announced new spectrum policy in place until 2024 stationed
around the four pillars of digitalisation, efficiency, simplification and social welfare.
• In December, the MinTIC announced its 'ICT Reactivation' plan that would see nearly USD1bn allocated towards the
development of a smart city project and the deployment of digital centres nationwide, particularly in rural areas where people
have less access to IT systems. According to the release, 63 cities have been chosen to become smart cities. The government
hopes to drive Colombia towards becoming a digital hub in the region.
• In December 2020, the CRC backed the new entrant WOM, requiring the other operators to allow WOM access to their networks.
Claro and TigoUNE had previously rejected WOM interconnection access.
• In February 2020, the Andean community (CAN) member states agreed to cut international roaming rates in voice and data
communications by 90%, starting in July. The move will affect some 111mn mobile phone users in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador
and Peru.
• Also in February, MinTIC pledged to invest COP291.5bn (around USD85mn) in upgrading the country's public free to air TV
channels and producing new content. A total of COP200bn will be allocated to boosting public media and extending the DTT
network, with the remaining COP91.5bn invested in content production, the RTVC Play platform and audience measurement
tools.
• In January, CRC slashed the costs payable by telecommunications companies to access electricity infrastructure such as posts,
ducts and substations by up to 74% with a view to enhancing coverage, above all in underserved and rural areas.
• In January, MinTIC announced the launch of a tender to contract up to 10,000 digital centres with free internet services in rural
localities over the following five months. The tender was open until January 27, with the ministry expecting to begin installing the
centres in H2 2020 under the new 'Universal Social Access In Rural Areas' plan.
2019
• In October, MinTIC postponed the stage of its long-delayed auction of 700MHz spectrum to December 12 2019. Rural areas,
including the department of Boyaca, were to be prioritised for broadband coverage.
• In July, representatives from rival operators Tigo, Movistar and Avantel spoke at a regulatory hearing, asking the CRC to recognise
the dominant position of Claro in the market. The representatives argued that Claro's dominance hurts the competitiveness of
the market.
• In April, MinTIC published a resolution inviting operators to register their interest for its upcoming auction for spectrum in the
700MHz, 1900MHz and 2500MHz bands.
• Also in March, the ANTV postponed the December 31 2019 deadline to complete the migration to digital terrestrial
television and switch off its analogue signal.
• In February, the city of Bogotá abandoned plans to sell its 88.4% stake in local fixed operator ETB.
• In February, MinTIC issued a request for expressions of interest in a proposed sale of E-band spectrum (60GHz-90GHz). The
regulator claims that of the frequencies in question are suitable for ‘last mile connections and the deployment of cells in urban
areas’ as well as supporting 4G optimisation.
2018
• In July, the government began applying a VAT of 19% on over-the-top providers of digital services, including Netflix, Spotify and
Uber.
• In June, the MinTIC stated that the country's regional public entities would be handed control of the network of digital kiosks in
August. The kiosks are part of the Vive Digital ICT plan, with some 910 centres installed in 535 cities in 26 departments since
the project was launched in 2012. According to the ministry, around 1.8mn citizens have used the kiosks to connect to the
internet, access online services and improve their digital literacy, but it would be up to regional entities to guarantee the
continuity of the services.
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Competitive Landscape
MARKET STRUCTURE
Company Name Ownership Market
Empresa de District government (86.5%), other public bodies Fixed-line telephony (local, domestic long distance,
Telecomunicaciones de (1.8%), privately-held shares (11.6%) international), data, internet
Bogotá
Movistar (incl. Telefónica Telefónica (67.5%), Government (32.5%) with Fixed-line telephony (local, domestic long distance,
Telecom) government option for 3% additional international), data, internet, mobile
Claro America Móvil (99.4%) Fixed-line telephony (local, domestic long distance,
international), data, internet, mobile
TigoUne Millicom International Cellular (50%-1 share), EPM Mobile, fixed-line telephony (local, domestic long
(50%+1 share) distance, international), data, internet
Source: National sources, Fitch Solutions
MOBILE MARKET OVERVIEW

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20
Mobile Subscribers ('000)
Total 63,428 64,514 64,968 65,794 65,116 66,283 66,492 64,867 65,478
Prepaid 50,048 51,250 51,522 52,125 51,262 52,260 52,418 50,914 51,193
Post-paid 13,167 13,264 13,447 13,669 13,854 14,023 14,075 13,953 14,285
Penetration
127.7 130.0 129.1 130.7 129.4 131.7 130.7 127.4 128.7
(%)
Source: MinTiC, Operators, Fitch Solutions
CLARO COLOMBIA
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Subscribers ('000)
Total Mobile 29,681 29,887 30,144 30,577 31,104 31,244 31,535 32,024 33,009
Prepaid 22,744 22,890 23,029 23,328 23,753 23,860 24,113 24,460 25,244
Post-paid 6,937 6,997 7,115 7,249 7,351 7,384 7,422 7,564 7,765
Wireline Accesses 7,171 7,320 7,459 7,555 7,613 7,760 7,938 8,155 8,318
Fixed Broadband 2,499 2,562 2,611 2,648 2,664 2,748 2,880 3,006 na
Mobile Usage
Monthly Blended
18,920 17,291 17,719 16,897 17,252 17,353 16,670 17,509 17,407
ARPU (COP)
Financials (COPbn)
Operating Revenue 2,998 2,931 3,101 3,269 3,354 3,230 3,131 3,368 3,574
Mobile Revenue 2,081 2,004 2,155 2,293 2,374 2,239 2,114 2,300 2,439
Fixed-line & Other 895 903 929 962 962 975 1,005 1,036 1,102
EBITDA 1,211 1,284 1,354 1,413 1,446 1,390 1,323 1,461 1,558
fitchsolutions.com
na = not available. Source: MinTiC, Operator, Fitch Solutions
MOVISTAR
Subscribers ('000)
Total Mobile 15,600 15,884 16,029 16,060 16,080 15,914 15,608 15,779 15,845
Prepaid 11,723 12,015 12,098 12,065 12,003 11,773 11,454 11,597 11,675
Post-paid 3,878 3,869 3,931 3,995 4,077 4,141 4,155 4,182 4,170
Fixed Voice 1,561 1,521 1,497 1,497 1,488 na na na na
Total Broadband 1,208 1,210 1,203 1,201 1,197 na na na na
Pay-TV 548 540 533 523 528 na na na na
Mobile Usage
Monthly Blended
13,602 13,110 12,746 12,735 12,746 na na na na
ARPU (COP)
Financials (COPbn)
Mobile Revenue 800 796 790 793 794 na na na na
Wireline Revenue 502 476 478 469 470 na na na na
OIBDA 516 481 481 504 581 413 430 442 560
Capital Expenditure 258 136 158 261 na na na na na
na = not available; Source: MiNTiC, Operator, Fitch Solutions
TIGOUNE
Subscribers ('000)
Total Mobile 8,601 8,976 9,079 8,915 9,421 9,135 8,704 9,147 10,025
Total Fixed Voice 1,552 1,559 1,566 1,581 1,597 1,580 1,597 na na
Total Broadband 1,406 1,436 1,462 1,493 1,528 1,538 1,612 na na
Usage
Monthly Blended
26,158 26,460 26,460 25,725 26,470 29,423 26,962 28,437 28,647
ARPU (COP)
Financials (COPbn)
EBITDA 349 446 398 402 426 439 405 412 432
na = not available. Source: MinTiC, Operator, Fitch Solutions
fitchsolutions.com
AVANTEL, ETB & MVNOS

Mobile Subscribers ('000)
Total 7,304 7,641 7,899 7,236 7,457 7,527 6,687 6,221 na
na = not available. Source: MinTiC, Operators, Fitch Solutions
fitchsolutions.com
Company Profile
Claro Colombia
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • Largest operator in the market with a strong hold on net additions.
• Parent company América Móvil is a major mobile player in the region with solid financial footing and
good opportunities for roaming.
• Leader in 4G subscriptions.
• Launched the first converged package offers in Colombia.
• Actively developing a 5G platform with Nokia and other partners to bolster high speed data service.
• Strong post-paid net additions in Q420.
Weaknesses • Strong regional competition from second-ranked Movistar, owned by rival Telefónica.
• Large proportion of subscriber growth has historically come from the prepaid segment.
• Lower tariffs are having a negative effect on average revenue per user (ARPU).
Opportunities • Improvement in prepaid/contract subscriber mix, with post-paid contracts accounting for increasing
share each quarter. This has mitigated ARPU decline.
• Rebranding of fixed operations from Telmex offers opportunities for cross-selling and taking advantage
of converged services.
Threats • Mobile virtual network operators have increased competition, successfully attracting subscribers to low
cost 3G/4G services.
• Consolidation among smaller players further increases competition in the market.
• Claro is the target of regulatory efforts to reduce its dominant position. Asymmetric interconnection
rates were introduced in H113 though later withdrawn in Q117. It was fined for over-charging its
subscribers and could face further sanctions for 'fictitious' mobile number portability practices.
Company Overview
Claro Colombia is a nationwide operator of 2G/3G/4G mobile networks and is the leading player in the mobile sector, with a market
share of almost double that of its nearest rival. The company also owns a wireline business, primarily engaged in the provision of
long-distance voice and data transmission services but, increasingly, also penetrating the consumer local access market.
Claro has its roots in three regional GSM operators that were merged into a single operating unit under the control of Mexico-based
América Móvil in 2004. America Movil then acquired the wireline business of Telmex Internacional in 2011 and the two units now
work together to offer converged services under the unified Claro brand name.
Strategy
Claro is the market's leading operator, but faces uncertainty as other companies attempt to reduce its dominance. A number of
considerations have passed through the regulator and Colombia's government aims to even out the market. Claro's strong position
is the result of an established strategy and expertise. We believe merging operations with Telmex Internacional's Colombian
operations (while keeping each company as a legal entity and continuing to offer their products) holds considerable potential,
particularly as Claro's rivals look to offer multi-play services.
fitchsolutions.com
Claro's strategy sees it launch new products and services, including mobile money and a mobile wallet. We believe that it is in these
areas that Claro will seek to differentiate itself.
Recent Developments
2021
The regulator declared Claro Colombia's dominant operator in February 2021, leaving the operator open to enhanced monitoring
and regulation. The operator recorded 33mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2020.
In February, Claro announced it had completed technical implementation procedures required to allow new entrant Novator
Partners' WOM to operate on its network. Claro had previously refused WOM access to their networks, but the regulator backed the
new entrant.
2020
In Q420, Claro recorded a 7% increase y-o-y in revenues, driven largely by an impressive number of post-paid additions to its service,
at 201,000. However, despite the considerable increase in post-paid subscribers the operator still experienced a 0.6% decline in
ARPU over the quarter.
In November, Claro launched a live 5G network trial in partnership with Nokia. The pilot was to cover mobile, fixed-wireless access
and corporate 5G services using 3.5GHz spectrum. The trial would initially cover four cities - Bogota, Medellin, Cali and
Barrancabermeja - and run for six months, in line with a temporary spectrum grant from the MinTIC. Claro said it intends to use 5G
connectivity to support sectors such as e-health, smart cities and immersive education via a combination of public and private
partnerships.
At the same time, Claro noted that it was continuing to roll out its 700MHz 5G deployment, targeting the deployment of 1,348 cell
sites in 30 provinces within five years.
In October, Claro revealed that it had extended its fibre-to-the-home network to 19 new locations over the last six months; it now
covered 110 towns and cities. New locations served are: Caqueza, Villeta, Pacho and La Mesa (Cundinamarca); Quimbaya,
Montenegro, Calarca, Circasia and La Tebaida (Quindio); Barbosa, Apartado and Girardota (Antioquia); La Virginia and Belen de
Umbria (Risaralda); Viterbo and Anserma (Caldas); Guamo (Tolima); Cartago (Valle del Cauca); and Chiquinquira (Boyaca).
In September 2020, Claro announced ‘Claro Share’, under which it will offer rivals access to its fixed and mobile networks. At the
time, Claro's mobile network that comprised 8,500 cell towers and covered 1,119 municipalities across 32 departments, while its
fibre-optic network had a total length of 438,000km.
2019
In December, in a multi-band spectrum auction, Claro won a 20MHz block in the 700MHz band, as well as 30MHz in the 2500MHz
band
In July, representatives from rival operators Tigo, Movistar and Avantel spoke at a regulatory hearing, asking the Communications
Regulatory Commission to recognise the dominant position of Claro in the market. The representatives argued that
Claro's dominance hurts the competitiveness of the market.
In February, Claro announced it would open its third data centre in the country, to be located in Medellín.
fitchsolutions.com
2018
In July, Claro launched 300Mbps home broadband service throughout the country, being the first operator to offer such ultra-
broadband speeds at the time. The service is available as a standalone service or in dual and triple play packages.
The company signed an agreement with Nokia in Q118 to develop 5G technologies and stage field trials in Colombia. The company
launched its LTE-Advanced service in Q218 and claimed to offer downlink speeds of up to 280Mbps on its new high-speed network.
Claro further noted in Q218 that its LTE-A service became available in 199 municipalities on over 1,700 LTE-A transmission sites
across the country.
2017
In July, Colombia's Ministry of Information and Communication Technologies (MinTIC) announced that it had fined Claro USD1.07bn
(COP3.16trn) for breaching its mobile licence contract. In August 2017, Claro paid MinTIC the outstanding amount of COP3.16trn.
Financial Data
Operating Revenue
• 2017: COP11.29trn
• 2018: COP11.58trn
• 2019: COP12.66trn
• 2020: COP13,303trn
EBITDA
• 2017: COP4.49trn
• 2018: COP4.70trn
• 2019: COP5.50trn
• 2020: COP5.73trn
Operational Data
Total Mobile Subscribers
• 2017: 29.35mn
• 2018: 29.68mn
• 2019: 31.10mn
• 2020: 33mn
fitchsolutions.com
Movistar (Telefónica)
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • Backed by one of the region's largest investors with experience in a range of telecoms services.
• Merged wireless and wireline operations allow for the development of converged services.
• Launched Colombia's first commercial virtual network for voice-over-LTE services.
• Was first to launch FTTH and IPTV services in six major cities, excluding Bogotá.
Weaknesses • Fixed-line market is declining with revenues from broadband and pay-TV not yet offsetting the decline.
• Large debt burden of parent company creates problems for Telefónica.
• Current partnership with the government limits the ability to raise funds for investment. To be watched if
situation changes, now that government announced intention to sell its stake.
Opportunities • Multi-play services offered, with broadband and pay-TV services showing strong growth potential.
• Regulator aims to restrict Claro's dominance in the market.
• Agreement to share 4G infrastructure with TigoUNE lowers roll-out costs.
• The government selling its stake in Coltel might facilitate faster investment and development of the
company.
• Build on initial success in offering FTTH and IPTV services.
Threats • Content is increasingly important in terms of product differentiation, but is a high-cost proposition.
• Current part ownership by the government represents vulnerability to political changes and may lead to
pressure to meet certain social requirements.
• Merger of UNE EPM and Tigo in August 2014 created stronger multi-play competitor.
Company Overview
Telefónica became the country's second largest integrated operator following the merger of Telefónica Móviles Colombia (Movistar
Colombia) and Colombia Telecomunicaciones (Coltel) at the end of June 2012. The company is 67.5% owned by Telefónica and
32.5% by the Colombian government.
Telefónica brought all its services together under the Movistar brand and is developing a broad range of converged wireline and
mobile voice, broadband and TV services.
The Colombian unit is one of the Latin American businesses the parent is hoping to sell in the near future.
Strategy
As the world becomes more connected, Telefónica is tailoring its strategy to capitalise on this trend. To this end, the company has
articulated a digital strategy aimed at combining connectivity and digital services for the consumer and enterprise market.
In November 2019, Telefónica unveiled a five-point ‘action plan’, which will serve as a catalyst for the company’s future
transformation. As part of its five priorities, it aims ‘To work towards an operational spin-off of its businesses in Hispanoamerica
(excluding Brazil)’, wich will now be managed as an autonomous unit with a dedicated team. With this step, the company begins the
review of its portfolio of assets in Hispanoamerica, with the dual objective of modulating its exposure to the region, while creating
the conditions to maximise its value, both via growth, consolidation and potential corporate operations. The unit will comprise
Telefonica’s operations in Argentina, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador and Venezuela. Telefonica hopes that these
measures will generate more than EUR2bn (USD2.2bn) of additional revenues by 2022.
fitchsolutions.com
Recent Developments
2021
In February, Movistar launched its fibre optic service in Bogotá following the ETB's rollout of the country's first 500Mbps fibre service.
The service is available to residential and enterprise customers and will exploit the limited 4G connectivity in the densely populated
capital.
Ahead of the 5G spectrum auction in Q421, Movistar has used the temporarily assigned 5G spectrum to pilot technology in
telemedicine, temperature control and remote education services. The operator is looking to capitalise on the demand for remote
education solutions.
2020
Over 2020, Movistar recorded a 11.3% decrease in operating revenues y-o-y, from EUR1.4bn to EUR1.25bn. This was driven largely
by the 16.5% decrease y-o-y for Q220, when the Covid-19 pandemic was at its most urgent. Colombia enacted one of the strictest
lockdowns in Latin America, greatly reducing operators' roaming and retail sales revenues.
The operator said that during 2020, usage of its fixed services had increased by 98%.
In February, Movistar Colombia (Telefonica) became the first local operator to launch plans incorporating Netflix content. The
operator's triple play offers with fibre-optic broadband at speeds of 100Mbps, 200Mbps and 300Mbps from COP148,900 a month
now come with a standard Netflix plan. They also include access to the Movistar Play platform with 53 live channels and more than
3,500 VoD titles, as well as long-distance national calls and 30 minutes of international calls to Spain, the US and Canada.
2019
In December, Telefonica continued its strategy of monetising infrastructure assets by selling 2,029 towers in Colombia and Ecuador
to Phoenix Tower International (PTI) for around EUR290mn. In total, Telefonica Colombia sold 621 towers for EUR87mn, while
Telefonica Ecuador sold a further 1,408 towers for EUR202mn, complementing other tower disposals executed earlier in the year.
In November 2019, Telefónica unveiled a five-point ‘action plan’, which will serve as a catalyst for the company’s future
transformation. As part of its five priorities, it aims ‘To work towards an operational spin-off of its businesses in Hispanoamerica
(excluding Brazil)’, which will now be managed as an autonomous unit with a dedicated team. With this step, the company begins
the review of its portfolio of assets in Hispanoamerica, with the dual objective of modulating its exposure to the region, while
creating the conditions to maximise its value, both via growth, consolidation and potential corporate operations. The unit will
comprise Telefonica’s operations in Argentina, Chile, Peru, Uruguay, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador and Venezuela. Telefonica hopes
that these measures will generate more than EUR2bn (USD2.2bn) of additional revenues by 2022.
2018
In November, Telefonica Colombia absorbed its regional subsidiaries Metrotel in Barranquilla and Telebucaramanga in
Bucaramanga, and committed to upgrading the regional networks to support LTE-A and fibre-optic technology.
In August, Movistar started a rural mobile wallet pilot, testing supported services such as: opening a mobile account, depositing
money into account, withdrawing cash from the account, transferring money to other users, paying utility bills and topping-up their
prepaid mobile connection. The pilot project was set to last for six months, with around 1,000 customers piloting the service.
fitchsolutions.com
In August, Colombia's government announced that it would be selling its 32.5% stake in Telefonica Colombia for a total of
COP2.3trn (around EUR682mn). The offer was open until October 3, initially to special interest groups and then to local and
international investors. However, the offer did not attract suitable bidders and was put on hold.
In June, the company announced the addition of 39 live channels to its Movistar Play OTT service. The new package included the
channels ESPN, Fox Sports, TNT, Fox, Disney, Cartoon Network, Cablenoticias, El Tiempo, CNN as well as the recently launched
Movistar Series channel plus around 3,700 movies and series on demand. The corresponding app worked on Samsung and LG
smart TVs, PCs and mobile devices.
The company signed an agreement with Chinese partner Huawei to develop and deploy its 4.5G service in Bogota over the course
of 2018. LTE-Advanced service deployment took place in April of 2018 and the operator had stated that its LTE-A cover would be
available in 129 municipalities and customers would be able to enjoy download speeds of up to 250Mbps.
2017
In July, the regulator fined Movistar COP1.65trn for breaching its mobile licence contract. In August, the shareholders of Telefonica
Colombia agreed to a capital increase of approximately EUR1.4bn (USD1.6bn) to pre-pay all commitments in relation to PARAPAT,
the consortium that owns the telecommunications assets and manages the pension funds of the former companies that resulted in
Colombia Telecomunicaciones (Telefonica Colombia).
In June, Telefónica's Movistar launched fibre-to-the-home and IPTV services in six Colombian cities. At launch, Movistar offered triple-
play plans with internet speeds ranging from 10Mbps to 100Mbps, and including Movistar TV, its pay-TV platform, Movistar Play, its
video-on-demand platform and unlimited landline calls.
Financial Data
Mobile Revenue
• 2017: EUR910mn
• 2018: EUR894mn
• 2019: EUR874mn
OIBDA
• 2017: EUR481mn
• 2018: EUR557mn
• 2019: EUR557mn
• 2020: EUR438mn
Operational Data
Total Mobile Subscriptions
• 2017: 14.59mn
• 2018: 15.60mn
• 2019: 16.08mn
fitchsolutions.com
TigoUNE
SWOT Analysis
Strengths • Backed by international operator Millicom.
• Towers sale brought in cash and reduced its network-related capex.
• TigoUNE consolidation has brought increased scale and coverage in more than 700 municipalities.
Weaknesses • TigoUNE is considerably smaller than Claro and Movistar while Millicom is dwarfed by their respective parent
companies América Móvil and Telefónica on a regional level.
• Merging operations with EPM has long-term benefits, but constitutes a short-term distraction from service
development.
Opportunities • Has successfully encouraged 3G/4G non-voice service usage and 4G network sharing agreement with
Telefonica reduces rollout costs.
• Investing in networks to improve quality and coverage, targeting the transition from voice to data by offering
bundles with smartphone subsidies.
• Expanding value-added services activities, in particular music and TV, will also develop localised mobile
financial services.
• 5G standalone network trial with Nokia will bring opportunities for enterprise data solutions.
Threats • Collaboration with MVNOs eroding TigoUNE's traditional low-cost mobile services business.
• Consolidation of rivals Telefónica/Movistar and Claro/Telmex may mean Tigo finds it hard to compete with
bundled services that alternative operators can offer.
• Pay-TV business struggling to compete with unlicensed services.
Company Overview
TigoUNE was formed following the 2014 merger of 2G/3G/4G licensee Colombia Móvil and wireline voice, broadband and pay-TV
venture UNE-EPM. Millicom International Cellular owns 50% plus one share in the merged entity, while the Colombian wireline
player owns the remainder. The entity trades under the TigoUNE brand name and accounted for 34% of Millicom's Latin American
revenue in 2020.
Strategy
Following the merger, TigoUNE has sought to integrate its disparate mobile, PSTN and cable networks in order to roll-out premium
multi-play services, Millicom sees great potential for bundling TV and broadband with its mobile services. Integration work
continued in 2017 while the company also focused on developing its value-added services and content portfolios. The growth of
network-agnostic over-the-top (OTT) services can be a threat, though Millicom believes there are ongoing opportunities to create
partnerships with content providers and OTT players which will enhance its mobile offers. The launch of a satellite TV service in
August 2016 was a positive step in disseminating and monetising that content. With the September 2017 launch of their own on
demand TV service, Tigo ONEtv, in collaboration with TiVo Corporation, integrating content from cable television and video
streaming websites under one roof, including content from Sony’s Crackle, FOX, YouTube and HBO.
A minor downside to the merger was that UNE EPM and Tigo were required to relinquish a 50MHz block of spectrum in the
2,500MHz band to avoid exceeding the spectrum cap of 85MHz. Despite this, the ultimate aim is to provide greater competition to
market leader Claro, which dominates in Colombia, and to Movistar, which has regional operations to back its position.
In line with Millicom's strategy elsewhere in Central and South American markets, the company has been at the forefront of building
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a reputation for its services in Colombia. New services, such as the telecare service Tigo Care, mobile financial services and
entertainment are already showing strong growth. Tigo has sold some infrastructure to American Towers in order to focus on core
businesses. The company says its focus should be on services rather than network maintenance, a strategy that should help it to
compete on a more even footing with its larger rivals.
Recent Developments
2020
In its Q4 report, TigoUNE reported upgrading 2,300 points of presence in Colombia related to the rollout of the 700MHz spectrum
that it acquired in 2019. The report also outlined an initiative carried out in several of TigoUNE's operating countries, including
Colombia, that offers woman virtual training in ICT and the internet. This is in line with digitalisation efforts across Tigo's footprint.
In December, TigoUNE announced it had partnered with Nokia to carry out a 5G standalone network trial in Medellin, designated
'On the path from 4G to 5G'. Colombia's regulator allocated 3.5GHz spectrum to Nokia and Tigo for the deployment, and hopes to
use it for more advanced data solutions for enterprises.
In August, new Colombian operator Partners (which had acquired fixed and mobile player Avantel earlier in the year) noted that
Claro and Tigo had so far refused to sign interconnection agreements with it, meaning that Movistar was the sole national operator
to allow it access. The issue of contention was Partners' access to Avantel's 700MHz spectrum, but the operator said the
frequencies had already been withdrawn by the National Spectrum Agency, pending a review.
In April, Tigo Colombia has began the deployment of its recently acquired 700MHz spectrum in Bogota, Medellin and Barranquilla.
Approximately 200 municipalities were due to be covered in the short term. Under its roll-out obligations, Tigo is due to cover at
least 1,630 new locations in the medium term, and will invest a total of around USD750mn on the initiative.
2019
In December, Millicom acquired 40MHz spectrum in the 700MHz band during Colombia's spectrum auction for COP2.45bn.
In April, it was reported that TigoUNE subsidiaries were to be rebranded under the Tigo Colombia name, to leverage the strength of
the Tigo brand in Latin America.
2018
In October, TigoUne invested some COP26bn (around USD8.5mn) on a new node-splitting system designed to improve its
customers' broadband connectivity.
Starting July, Tigo began hosting a new MVNO called Flash Mobile. Flash Mobile was the country's eighth mobile operator,
competing with the MVNOs Virgin Mobile, Avantel, Exito, ETB and Uff Movil (which also announced its exit from the market in July
2018) as well as the MNOs Movistar, Claro and Tigo. Flash Mobile is owned by US-based group ACN. At the end of July 2018, Uff
announced it ceased operations over its debts to Tigo, which reached COP8bn in network charges.
In April, Tigo launched its LTE-Advanced services in Colombia. The operator stated that it had commenced offering the new services
in parts of Bogota and customers could access download speeds of over 160Mbps in the Colombian capital.
fitchsolutions.com
2017
In June, Tigo sold approximately 1,200 of its towers to the Colombian subsidiary of American Tower Corporation. The cash deal was
valued at around COP448bn (USD147mn).
Colombia's first MVNO, Uff!, which entered the market in Q410, ran on TigoUNE's network. While this new player competed for Tigo's
customers, it also generated wholesale revenue for TigoUNE. In December 2015, an 80.59% stake of Uff! was sold to US-based
MVNO Holdings. In March 2017, TigoUNE threatened to disconnect Uff!'s users from the network for non-payment of network
charges, but the two companies reached a preliminary agreement to avoid abrupt disconnection of Uff!'s users.
Financial Data
Revenue
• 2017: COP5.13bn
• 2018: COP4.91bn
• 2019: COP5.02bn
• 2020: COP4.97bn
EBITDA
• 2017: COP1.39bn
• 2018: COP1.46bn
• 2019: COP1.67bn
• 2020: COP1.68bn
Operational Data
Total Mobile Subscribers
• 2017: 8.14mn
• 2018: 8.60mn
• 2019: 9.42mn
• 2020: 10.02mn
fitchsolutions.com
Colombia Demographic Outlook

Demographic analysis is a key pillar of our macroeconomic and industry forecasting model. Not only is the total population of a
country a key variable in consumer demand, but an understanding of the demographic profile is essential to understanding issues
ranging from future population trends to productivity growth and government spending requirements.
The accompanying charts detail the population pyramid for 2019, the change in the structure of the population between 2019 and
2050 and the total population between 1990 and 2050. The tables show indicators from all of these charts, in addition to key
metrics such as population ratios, the urban/rural split and life expectancy.
Population
Colombia - Population, mn (1990-2050)
e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions
Population Pyramid
Colombia – 2019 Male vs Female Population, '000 (LHS) & 2019 vs 2050 Population, '000 (RHS)
Source: World Bank, UN, Fitch Solutions
fitchsolutions.com
POPULATION HEADLINE INDICATORS (COLOMBIA 1990-2025)

Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Population, % y-o-y 1.62 1.36 1.06 1.18 1.08 0.36
Population, total, male, '000 16,315.3 19,427.3 20,901.1 22,159.7 23,288.8 24,984.6 25,505.4
Population, total, female, '000 16,787.3 20,202.7 21,746.6 23,063.0 24,231.9 25,898.3 26,501.7
Population, total, '000 33,102.6 39,630.0 42,647.7 45,222.7 47,520.7 50,882.9 52,007.1
Population ratio, male/female 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96
KEY POPULATION RATIOS (COLOMBIA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Dependent ratio, % of total working age 67.2 60.7 56.6 51.2 47.5 45.4 46.3
Dependent population, total, '000 13,308.4 14,971.1 15,420.2 15,310.1 15,313.2 15,897.9 16,467.3
Active population, % of total population 59.8 62.2 63.8 66.1 67.8 68.8 68.3
Active population, total, '000 19,794.2 24,658.9 27,227.5 29,912.6 32,207.4 34,985.0 35,539.8
Youth population, % of total working age 60.3 52.4 47.5 41.2 36.2 32.3 30.4
Youth population, total, '000 11,931.2 12,909.0 12,931.2 12,331.6 11,656.7 11,287.6 10,808.3
Pensionable population, % of total working age 7.0 8.4 9.1 10.0 11.4 13.2 15.9
Pensionable population, '000 1,377.2 2,062.1 2,489.0 2,978.6 3,656.6 4,610.3 5,659.0
URBAN/RURAL POPULATION AND LIFE EXPECTANCY (COLOMBIA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Urban population, % of total 69.5 74.0 76.0 78.0 79.8 81.4 82.9
Rural population, % of total 30.5 26.0 24.0 22.0 20.2 18.6 17.1
Urban population, '000 23,000.0 29,309.1 32,422.5 35,257.4 37,904.4 41,431.4 43,137.2
Rural population, '000 10,102.6 10,320.8 10,225.2 9,965.3 9,616.3 9,451.5 8,869.8
Life expectancy at birth, male, years 66.0 69.6 71.1 72.4 73.7 74.7 75.7
Life expectancy at birth, female, years 73.6 76.3 77.4 78.4 79.3 80.2 80.9
Life expectancy at birth, average, years 69.8 72.9 74.3 75.4 76.5 77.5 78.3
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (COLOMBIA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, total, '000 4,195.4 4,355.5 4,207.2 3,834.0 3,670.9 3,710.7 3,473.9
fitchsolutions.com
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Population, 55-59 yrs, total, '000 897.9 1,171.2 1,476.9 1,875.2 2,163.4 2,635.5 2,811.7
Population, 60-64 yrs, total, '000 717.2 956.4 1,112.9 1,406.8 1,790.7 2,086.5 2,519.2
Population, 65-69 yrs, total, '000 533.0 770.4 883.6 1,031.9 1,310.0 1,684.9 1,953.2
Population, 70-74 yrs, total, '000 375.0 566.2 680.6 785.5 924.1 1,187.6 1,525.0
Population, 75-79 yrs, total, '000 255.8 370.4 468.2 567.4 662.6 792.1 1,019.3
Population, 80-84 yrs, total, '000 134.7 211.1 271.2 348.8 431.8 516.3 620.7
Population, 100+ yrs, total, '000 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.9 4.0 5.7
POPULATION BY AGE GROUP % (COLOMBIA 1990-2025)
Indicator 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020e 2025f
Population, 0-4 yrs, % total 12.67 10.99 9.87 8.48 7.72 7.29 6.68
Population, 100+ yrs, % total 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
fitchsolutions.com
Telecommunications Glossary
Definition Definition Definition
3G Third generation ILD International long-distance na not available
4G Fourth generation IoT Internet of Things NFC Near Field Communication
Network Functions
5G Fifth generation IPO Initial public offering NFV
Virtualisation
Next generation access

ADSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line IPTV Internet protocol television NGAN/NGN
network
Integrated Systems Digital Operating income before

AI Artificial intelligence ISDN OIBDA
Network depreciation and amortisation
ARPU Average revenue per user ISP Internet service provider OTT Over-the-top
ASP Average selling price IT Information technology POP Point of presence
International Public switched telephone

bn billion ITU PSTN
Telecommunication Union network
CDMA Code Division Multiple Access JV joint venture R&D Research and development
DMB Digital Multimedia Broadcasting kbps kilobits per second RGU Revenue generating unit
Data Over Cable Service Interface

DOCSIS KHz kilohertz SaaS Software-as-a-Service
Specification
DSL Digital Subscriber Line km kilometre SIM Subscriber Identity Module
DTH Direct to Home (Satellite TV) LAN Local Area Network SMS Short Message Service
DVB-H Digital Video Broadcasting - Handheld LEC Local exchange carrier Tbps Terabits per second
e/f estimate/forecast LPWAN Low Power Wide Area Network trn trillion
Earnings before income tax, depreciation Unbundled local loop/Local

EBITDA LTE Long Term Evolution ULL/LLU
and amortisation loop unbundling
European Bank for Reconstruction and Universal Mobile

EBRD M2M Machine-to-machine UMTS
Development Telecomunications System
Very high-speed Digital

EC European Commission Mbps Megabits per second VDSL
Subscriber Line
EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa mn million VoD Video-on-Demand
FDI Foreign direct investment MEA Middle East and Africa VoIP Voice-over-Internet Protocol
Fibre-to-the-x (x = home, building or

FTTx MENA Middle East and North Africa W-CDMA Wideband CDMA
cabinet)
Worldwide Interoperability for

Gbps Gigabits per second MHz Megahertz WiMAX
Microwave Access
GPON Gigabit passive optical network MMS Mobile Multimedia Service WLL Wireless local loop
GDP Gross domestic product MNP Mobile number portability WTO World Trade Organization
GSM Global system for mobile communications MoU Minutes of Use
HSDPA High-speed data packet access MoU Memorandum of understanding
Hz Hertz MVNE Mobile virtual nework enabler
IDD International direct dialling MVNO Mobile virtual network operator

fitchsolutions.com
Telecommunications Methodology
Connected Thinking
We use a simple and transparent forecasting model as a base for our industry forecasts, but rely heavily on our analysts' expert
judgment to ensure our forecasts capture all of the insights we derive using our unique Connected Thinking approach. We believe
analyst expertise and judgement are the best ways to provide the most accurate, up-to-date and comprehensive insight to our
customers.
Our Connected Thinking approach to forecasting and analysis integrates macroeconomic variables from Fitch Solutions Country
Risk to provide our customers with unique and valuable insight on all relevant macroeconomic, political and industry risk factors
that will impact their operations and revenue-generating potential in the industry/industries they operate in.
Telecommunications Methodology
For the Telecoms industry we have historical data and 10-year forecasts for 90 core industry variables, including Mobile, Wireline,
Broadband, Pay-TV, and Operator Financials.
Our forecasts are a combination of regression modelling and our Telecoms analysts' expert judgement. Our Telecoms analysts
interact with other analytical teams, including Country Risk, Infrastructure, Autos, and Consumer & Retail. By taking into account
external industries, the Telecoms team ensures that factors such as political trends, regulatory outlook, operational risk, and
technology trends are taken into account in forecasts.
There is a constant rolling cycle of data monitoring, with 190 market data sets being updated on a quarterly basis. Analysts will
intervene outside of these cycles to implement changes when necessary.
Mobile Subscriber Numbers
Mobile subscriber numbers is defined as the total number of mobile cellular subscriptions, including all pre-paid SIM cards active
during the past three months. This includes GSM/CDMA (2G), UMTS/HSPA (3G), LTE (4G) and 5G subscriptions, but excludes
broadband connections on dedicated data SIM cards or USB dongles.
Historical figures for mobile subscriber numbers are sourced from operators, regulators, industry associations, and national statistics
offices.
Our mobile subscriber number forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series and key
macroeconomic explanatory variables from Fitch Solutions' Country Risk service, such as real GDP growth. In addition, we also apply
analyst expert judgement to refine and finalise the mobile subscriber number forecasts based on exogenous and endogenous
variables or events, not captured by our regression model.
Fitch Solutions' mobile subscriber number forecasts examine the industry with a bottom-up approach, forecasting subscriptions for
each technology to calculate the total market size. Technologies which compose the total subscriber numbers are:
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• Prepaid
• Post-paid
◦ 2G
◦ 3G
◦ 4G
◦ 5G
Wireline Operations
Total fixed voice subscribers is defined as the total number of active fixed voice connections, including analogue PSTN lines, ISDN
channels, fixed wireless (WLL) and VoIP (Voice over IP) technologies.
Historical figures for fixed voice subscriber numbers are sourced from operators, regulators, industry associations, and national
statistics offices.
Our fixed voice subscriber number forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series and key
macroeconomic explanatory variables from Fitch Solutions' Country Risk service. In addition, we also apply analyst expert
judgement to refine and finalise the fixed voice subscriber number forecasts based on exogenous and endogenous variables or
events, not captured by our regression model.
Fitch Solutions' fixed voice subscriber forecasts examine the industry with a bottom-up approach, forecasting subscriptions for each
technology to calculate the total market size. Technologies which compose the total subscriber numbers are:
• Narrowband (PSTN/ISDN/WLL)
• Broadband (VoIP)
Broadband
Total broadband subscriptions is defined as the total number of dedicated internet connections with download speeds higher than
256kbps. Includes both fixed and mobile connections (dedicated mobile data connections on data SIMs, USB dongles and M2M
connections, but excluding smartphone-based voice and data 3G/4G/5G connections).
Historical figures for broadband subscriptions are sourced from operators, regulators, industry associations, and national statistics
offices.
Our broadband subscriptions forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series and key
judgement to refine and finalise the broadband subscriber number forecasts based on exogenous and endogenous variables or
events, not captured by our regression model.
Fitch Solutions' total broadband subscription forecasts examine the industry with a bottom-up approach, forecasting subscriptions
for each technology to calculate the total market size. Technologies which compose the total subscriber numbers are:
• Fixed Broadband
• Cable
• xDSL
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• FTTx
• Other (Powerline, Ethernet, Wi-Fi, WiMAX, Fixed 4G/5G)
Pay-TV
Total pay-TV subscriptions is defined as the total number of discrete subscription-based premium TV conditional accesses offering
linear and on-demand programming. The data exclude platform-agnostic over-the-top streaming services, owing to the lack of
verifiable data offered up by service providers.
Historical figures for pay-TV subscriptions are sourced from operators, regulators, industry associations, and national statistics
offices.
Our pay-TV forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series and key macroeconomic
explanatory variables from Fitch Solutions' Country Risk service. In addition, we also apply analyst expert judgement to refine and
finalise the pay-TV subscriber number forecasts based on exogenous and endogenous variables or events, not captured by our
regression model.
Fitch Solutions' total Pay-TV subscription forecasts examine the industry with a bottom-up approach, forecasting subscriptions for
each service type to calculate the total market size. Services which compose the total subscriber numbers are:
• Cable-TV
• DTH TV
• IPTV
• Other (DTT, MMDS etc)
• Multi-play (dual-, triple-, quad-, quin-play)
Operator Financials
Gross operator financials data represent aggregate market-level historical data and forecasts.
Historical figures for operator financials are sourced from regulators, industry associations, and national statistics offices.
Our operator financials forecasts are based on a regression model, using a market's own historical time series and key
judgement to refine and finalise the operator financials forecasts based on exogenous and endogenous variables or events, not
captured by our regression model, such as anticipating the launch of new technologies, mergers, licensing of new players, amongst
others.
Fitch Solutions' operator financial forecasts examine the industry with a top-down approach, forecasting revenues and expenditures
for the industry as a whole rather than on a company level.
Risk/Reward Index Methodology
Fitch Solutions’ Risk/Reward Index (RRI) provide a comparative regional ranking system evaluating the ease of doing business
and the industry-specific opportunities and limitations for potential investors in a given market.
The RRI system divides into two distinct areas:

fitchsolutions.com
Rewards: Evaluation of sector's size and growth potential in each state, and also broader industry/state characteristics that may
inhibit its development. This is further broken down into two sub categories:
• Industry Rewards. This is an industry specific category taking into account current industry size and growth forecasts, the
openness of market to new entrants and foreign investors, to provide an overall score for potential returns for investors.
• Country Rewards. This is a country specific category, and the score factors in favourable political and economic conditions for
the industry.
Risks: Evaluation of industry-specific dangers and those emanating from the state's political/economic profile that call into
question the likelihood of anticipated returns being realised over the assessed time period. This is further broken down into two sub
categories:
• Industry Risks. This is an industry specific category whose score covers potential operational risks to investors, regulatory issues
inhibiting the industry, and the relative maturity of a market.
• Country Risks. This is a country specific category in which political and economic instability, unfavourable legislation and a poor
overall business environment are evaluated to provide an overall score.
We take a weighted average, combining industry and country risks, or industry and country rewards. These two results in turn
provide an overall Risk/Reward Index, which is used to create our regional ranking system for the risks and rewards of involvement
in a specific industry in a particular country.
For each category and sub-category, each state is scored out of 100 (100 being the best), with the overall Risk/Reward Index a
weighted average of the total score. Importantly, as most of the countries and territories evaluated are considered by Fitch
Solutions to be 'emerging markets', our score is revised on a quarterly basis. This ensures that the score draws on the latest
information and data across our broad range of sources, and the expertise of our analysts.
Indicators
The following indicators have been used. Overall, the index uses three subjectively measured indicators, and around 20 separate
indicators/datasets.
RISK/REWARD INDEX INDICATORS

Rationale
Rewards
Industry Rewards
- ARPU Denotes depth of telecoms market. High-value markets score better than low-value ones.
- No. of subscribers Denotes breadth of telecoms market. Large markets score higher than smaller ones.
Denotes sector dynamism. Scores based on annual average growth over our five-year forecast period and
- Subscriber growth, % y-o-y
also take into account the penetration rate.
Subjective evaluation against Fitch Solutions-defined criteria. Evaluates market openness and
- No. of operators
competitiveness.
Country Rewards
A highly urbanised state facilitates network rollout and implies higher wealth. Pre-dominantly rural states
- Urban/rural split
score lower, with overall score also affected by country size.
Proportion of population under 24 years old. States with young populations tend to be more attractive
- Age range
markets.
fitchsolutions.com
Rationale
- GDP per capita, USD A proxy for wealth. High-income states receive better scores than low-income states.
Risks
Industry Risks
Subjective evaluation against Fitch Solutions-defined criteria. Evaluates predictability of operating

- Regulatory independence
environment.
Country Risks
Score from Fitch Solutions’ Country Risk Index(CRI). Denotes state's vulnerability to externally induced
- Short-term external risk
economic shock, which tend to be the principal triggers of economic crises.
- Policy continuity From CRI. Evaluates the risk of a sharp change in the broad direction of government policy.
From CRI. Denotes strength of legal institutions in each state - security of investment can be a key risk in
- Legal framework
some emerging markets.
From CRI. Denotes risk of additional illegal costs/possibility of opacity in tendering/business operations
- Corruption
affecting companies' ability to compete.
Source: Fitch Solutions
Weighting
Given the number of indicators/datasets used, it would be inappropriate to give all sub-components equal weight. Consequently,
the following weighting has been adopted:
WEIGHTING OF INDICATORS
Component Weighting, %
Rewards 70, of which
- Industry Rewards 65
- Country Rewards 35
Risks 30, of which
- Industry Risks 40
- Country Risks 60
Source: Fitch Solutions
fitchsolutions.com
Fit
Fitch
ch Solutions, 30 North C
Colonnade
olonnade,, Canary W
Wharf
harf,, L
London.
ondon. E14 5GN, UK
Tel: +44 (0)20 7248 0468
Fax: +44 (0)20 7248 0467
Web: www.fitchsolutions.com
IS SN: 1748-4480
ISSN:
Copy Deadline: March 2021

opy
© 20
2021
21 Fit
Fitch
ch Solutions Gr
Group
oup Limit
Limited.
ed. All rights rreserv
eserved.
ed.
All information, analysis, forecasts and data provided by Fitch Solutions Group Limited is for the exclusive use of subscribing persons or organisations (including those
using the service on a trial basis). All such content is copyrighted in the name of Fitch Solutions Group Limited and as such no part of this content may be reproduced,
repackaged, copied or redistributed without the express consent of Fitch Solutions Group Limited.
All content, including forecasts, analysis and opinion, has been based on information and sources believed to be accurate and reliable at the time of publishing. Fitch
Solutions Group Limited makes no representation of warranty of any kind as to the accuracy or completeness of any information provided, and accepts no liability
whatsoever for any loss or damage resulting from opinion, errors, inaccuracies or omissions affecting any part of the content.
This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 (‘FSG’). FSG is an
affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. (‘Fitch Ratings’). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions
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EMISPDF co-uniandes01 from 157.253.50.50 on 2021-11-05 21:43:09 GMT. DownloadPDF.

Industry Risk/Reward Index ....................................................................................................................................................10

Regulatory Development ..........................................................................................................................................................27

Colombia Demographic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................43

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions

Latest Updates And Industry Developments

Industry Trends - Mobile

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions, MinTiC

Wireline Voice And Broadband

Industry Trends – Wireline Sector

e/f = Fitch Solutions estimate/forecast. Source: Fitch Solutions, MinTiC

TELECOMS SECTOR - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS (COLOMBIA 2019-2024)

3G subscriptions ('000) 8,227.4 6,894.6 5,591.5 4,283.1 2,985.3 1,558.3

4G subscriptions ('000) 21,305.9 28,336.8 35,987.8 46,424.2 54,316.3 59,422.1

5G subscriptions ('000) 26.0 248.0 870.6 2,089.5 3,990.9

TELECOMS SECTOR - HISTORICAL DATA & FORECASTS (COLOMBIA 2025-2030)

3G subscriptions ('000) 637.4 178.5 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

4G subscriptions ('000) 64,175.8 66,742.9 67,543.8 66,530.6 64,474.8 61,457.4

5G subscriptions ('000) 6,505.2 9,692.8 12,988.3 16,105.5 19,004.5 22,190.8

Industry Risk/Reward Index

Latin America Telecoms Risk/Reward Profiles

Post-Covid Recovery To Continue, Driven By 4G/5G And Fibre Investments

LATIN AMERICA TELECOMS RISK/REWARD INDEX, Q2 2021

Chile 79.5 62.5 73.5 96.6 74.4 85.5 77.1 1 10

Peru 72.7 58.1 67.6 85.6 53.4 69.5 68.2 2 34

Brazil 67.9 59.0 64.8 69.6 57.7 63.7 64.4 3 47

Panama 61.9 60.8 61.5 69.6 63.7 66.6 63.0 4 49

Colombia 63.2 59.1 61.8 69.6 56.2 62.9 62.1 5 51

Costa Rica 66.6 60.3 64.4 37.3 62.1 49.7 60.0 6 54

Paraguay 69.0 53.6 63.6 54.0 46.6 50.3 59.6 7 56

Mexico 59.0 62.1 60.1 54.0 59.8 56.9 59.1 8 59

Uruguay 56.2 66.8 59.9 37.3 67.8 52.5 57.7 9 63

Argentina 57.5 65.7 60.3 54.0 45.1 49.5 57.1 10 65

Ecuador 54.0 54.1 54.0 25.6 43.7 34.7 48.2 11 93

Guatemala 51.0 50.4 50.8 37.3 39.7 38.5 47.1 12 95

Belize 47.3 44.6 46.3 37.3 31.4 34.4 42.7 13 123

El Salvador 44.9 54.1 48.1 18.1 34.5 26.3 41.6 14 131

Honduras 41.6 47.4 43.7 37.3 35.5 36.4 41.5 15 133

Bolivia 42.4 54.3 46.6 10.7 33.8 22.2 39.3 16 141

Guyana 46.2 46.4 46.2 10.7 31.2 20.9 38.6 17 144

Nicaragua 46.0 44.1 45.3 10.7 31.7 21.2 38.1 18 147

Suriname 15.8 56.6 30.1 54.0 23.8 38.9 32.7 19 180

Venezuela 24.7 52.1 34.3 6.0 5.1 5.6 25.7 20 195

Global Average 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ~ ~

Regional Average 53.4 55.6 54.1 43.8 44.9 44.3 51.2 ~ ~

LATIN AMERICA TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY REWARDS, Q2 2021

Chile 78.9 62.3 78.9 97.7 79.5 73.5

Peru 82.9 45.7 72.9 89.2 72.7 67.6