PANCHITA

Panchita desea poner una tienda de dulces en un importante centro comercial de Lima. Ha desarrollado su plan de negoc
determinó que su inversión inicial deberá ser de S/. 6000. Los costos fijos mensuales serán de S/. 1500 y los costos variabl
alcanzarán el 50% de los ingresos. Planea vender los dulces a S/. 4.00 por unidad. El impuesto a la renta es 30% y su costo
8% anual. Desafortunadamente Panchita no está segura de la demanda. Su asesor le sugiere que seguirá una N(600,50) m
Adicionalmente sabe que debe hacer una pequeña publicidad. Si sus ventas son menores que 600 unidades, el siguiente m
esta campaña y únicamente por el siguiente mes, las veces que este sea necesario, bajo la siguiente distribución: Costo en
Probabilidad (500, 0.35; 800, 0.4; 1 000, 0.25). Ciertamente ella cree que no será necesario hacer publicidad el primer me
si sus ventas en un mes dado son superiores a 600 unidades y en ese mes hizo publicidad el siguiente mes tendrá que con
asistente a medio tiempo y sólo por un mes a un costo que fluctúa entre s/. 500 y s/. 700 mensuales. Desarrolle un anális
primeros 6 meses (Mes 0, Mes 1, …, Mes 6) de operación del negocio y efectúe una simulación con 1000 ensayos.
 a) Determine y comente el intervalo de confianza al 95% para el VPN.
b) ¿Es significativa la probabilidad de que pierda dinero en ese periodo?

Costo Prob Rango

500 0.35 0 500 0.35
800 0.4 0.35 800 0.75
1000 0.25 0.75 1000 1
1

Mes 0 Mes 1 Mes 2 Mes 3 Mes 4

Inversión -6000

Ingresos 2,520.34 2,594.63 2,260.12 2,106.47

Demanda 630.09 648.66 565.03 526.62
Precio 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

Costos
Costo Fijo 1500 1500 1500 1500
Costo Varia. 1,260 1,297 1,130 1,053
Publicidad 0 - - 500
Asistente - - -

Margen B. -239.83 -202.69 -369.94 -946.76

IR -71.95 -60.81 -110.98 -284.03

UTILIDAD N. -167.88 -141.88 -258.96 -662.73

VPN -S/ 8,740.31

Tasa Anual 8%
Tasa Mensual 0.6%

S1
1 -S/ 8,740.31 -S/ 7,910.87
2 -8740.3123559987 -9808.25475
3 -8740.3123559987 -9571.27053
4 -8740.3123559987 -7991.1971
5 -8740.3123559987 -9366.40057
868 -8740.3123559987 -8700.44651
869 -8740.3123559987 -10009.77
870 -8740.3123559987 -8330.47128
871 -8740.3123559987 -8946.53751
872 -8740.3123559987 -9186.10753
873 -8740.3123559987 -8122.07514
874 -8740.3123559987 -9206.04562
875 -8740.3123559987 -9440.0623
876 -8740.3123559987 -9921.52336
877 -8740.3123559987 -7962.04083
878 -8740.3123559987 -7058.428
879 -8740.3123559987 -9375.88667
880 -8740.3123559987 -8462.26737
881 -8740.3123559987 -8027.3255
882 -8740.3123559987 -8132.54454
883 -8740.3123559987 -9324.89233
884 -8740.3123559987 -9276.26343
885 -8740.3123559987 -7065.14568
886 -8740.3123559987 -7785.9303
887 -8740.3123559987 -8198.49607
888 -8740.3123559987 -10106.2347
889 -8740.3123559987 -8589.52022
890 -8740.3123559987 -8699.89514
891 -8740.3123559987 -9773.08518
892 -8740.3123559987 -9566.73681
893 -8740.3123559987 -9574.73449
894 -8740.3123559987 -8738.33922
895 -8740.3123559987 -6962.369
896 -8740.3123559987 -8570.63495
897 -8740.3123559987 -8505.12892
898 -8740.3123559987 -9972.80221
899 -8740.3123559987 -9272.52099
900 -8740.3123559987 -10075.0518
901 -8740.3123559987 -9197.20041
902 -8740.3123559987 -9571.70077
903 -8740.3123559987 -10065.6186
904 -8740.3123559987 -6790.91908
905 -8740.3123559987 -9834.50627
906 -8740.3123559987 -9805.26736
907 -8740.3123559987 -9031.04091
908 -8740.3123559987 -8533.30101
909 -8740.3123559987 -9145.58614
910 -8740.3123559987 -9078.95885
911 -8740.3123559987 -8359.04667
912 -8740.3123559987 -8491.05979
913 -8740.3123559987 -9902.72887
914 -8740.3123559987 -8766.06983
915 -8740.3123559987 -8564.38339
916 -8740.3123559987 -9116.18369
917 -8740.3123559987 -8995.64364
918 -8740.3123559987 -8903.96953
919 -8740.3123559987 -8754.76358
920 -8740.3123559987 -9109.47397
921 -8740.3123559987 -7996.30083
922 -8740.3123559987 -8463.9703
923 -8740.3123559987 -9192.33083
924 -8740.3123559987 -9043.68314
925 -8740.3123559987 -8023.32985
926 -8740.3123559987 -9728.60956
927 -8740.3123559987 -9926.22698
928 -8740.3123559987 -9557.79132
929 -8740.3123559987 -8645.79168
930 -8740.3123559987 -9220.82057
931 -8740.3123559987 -10153.753
932 -8740.3123559987 -8894.09834
933 -8740.3123559987 -8372.6272
934 -8740.3123559987 -9683.43703
935 -8740.3123559987 -7415.55272
936 -8740.3123559987 -8134.46221
937 -8740.3123559987 -9520.1849
938 -8740.3123559987 -7783.53633
939 -8740.3123559987 -7712.92031
940 -8740.3123559987 -8514.08431
941 -8740.3123559987 -9663.81173
942 -8740.3123559987 -9112.65808
943 -8740.3123559987 -9498.16542
944 -8740.3123559987 -8966.20328
945 -8740.3123559987 -9165.44009
946 -8740.3123559987 -9008.63269
947 -8740.3123559987 -9397.50471
948 -8740.3123559987 -9167.57196
949 -8740.3123559987 -8830.49674
950 -8740.3123559987 -7370.27182
951 -8740.3123559987 -8926.48954
952 -8740.3123559987 -9299.41193
953 -8740.3123559987 -9482.14027
954 -8740.3123559987 -8208.37275
955 -8740.3123559987 -6991.72568
956 -8740.3123559987 -10061.6102
957 -8740.3123559987 -9653.07646
958 -8740.3123559987 -8866.70941
959 -8740.3123559987 -9532.59711
960 -8740.3123559987 -9728.70152
961 -8740.3123559987 -7369.01751
962 -8740.3123559987 -8350.44103
963 -8740.3123559987 -10093.8462
 964 -8740.3123559987 -8016.18696
965 -8740.3123559987 -9364.33856
966 -8740.3123559987 -9389.41626
967 -8740.3123559987 -10190.4557
968 -8740.3123559987 -9512.80812
969 -8740.3123559987 -9222.24426
970 -8740.3123559987 -7928.52181
971 -8740.3123559987 -8721.77816
972 -8740.3123559987 -8128.11601
973 -8740.3123559987 -9901.71972
974 -8740.3123559987 -7907.883
975 -8740.3123559987 -9897.93683
976 -8740.3123559987 -8429.88723
977 -8740.3123559987 -9427.30992
978 -8740.3123559987 -7839.29039
979 -8740.3123559987 -9373.17432
980 -8740.3123559987 -7175.42869
981 -8740.3123559987 -8982.72877
982 -8740.3123559987 -8715.31846
983 -8740.3123559987 -9535.35751
984 -8740.3123559987 -9606.03735
985 -8740.3123559987 -9594.45086
986 -8740.3123559987 -8994.13194
987 -8740.3123559987 -9607.67788
988 -8740.3123559987 -9224.46604
989 -8740.3123559987 -9243.37621
990 -8740.3123559987 -8879.47123
991 -8740.3123559987 -8653.90591
992 -8740.3123559987 -9545.70653
993 -8740.3123559987 -7934.06336
994 -8740.3123559987 -9990.41805
995 -8740.3123559987 -9107.92065
996 -8740.3123559987 -8936.9443
997 -8740.3123559987 -9617.71441
998 -8740.3123559987 -9030.88007
999 -8740.3123559987 -9150.9433
1000 -8740.3123559987 -10134.908
 a. Ha desarrollado su plan de negocio y
serán de S/. 1500 y los costos variables
mpuesto a la renta es 30% y su costo de capital es
sugiere que seguirá una N(600,50) mensual.
ores que 600 unidades, el siguiente mes hará
jo la siguiente distribución: Costo en s/. -
esario hacer publicidad el primer mes. Más aún,
dad el siguiente mes tendrá que contratar un
700 mensuales. Desarrolle un análisis para los
mulación con 1000 ensayos.

Mes 5 Mes 6

2,304.93 2,356.63
576.23 589.16 VPN
4.00 4.00 4 S/. -8,740.31
6 S/. -5,065.25
8 S/. -4,709.90
1500 1500 10 S/. -587.91
1,152 1,178 12 S/. 866.98
800 800 14 S/. 3,434.92
- - 16 S/. 6,337.96
18 S/. 10,364.24
-1,147.53 -1,121.68 20 S/. 11,861.35
-344.26 -336.50 22 S/. 12,499.99
24 S/. 17,492.71
-803.27 -785.18

S2 S3
-8323.48399 -9269.4018
-8563.26362 -9493.0166
-7572.33949 -8379.0376
-8070.30387 -8697.0758
-8562.58766 -9766.4284
-9072.84489 -9438.5471
-9214.95459 -9681.7519 Columna1
-8817.66145 -9589.918
-9855.46246 -9212.9326 Media -8929.96192
-8458.47671 -10279.597 Error típico 24.3470077
-9273.81452 -9417.8019 Mediana -9018.27157
-8139.74523 -9335.9734 Moda #N/A
-8021.74777 -7686.2945 Desviación estánd 769.919984
-9539.44156 -7941.1413 Varianza de la mu 592776.782
-7983.85016 -9064.0131 Curtosis -0.22286288
-8858.1978 -7944.5814 Coeficiente de as 0.48571234
-9811.34912 -9382.8742 Rango 3924.1614
-8631.45352 -8732.0864 Mínimo -10693.389
-8595.83641 -9297.0576 Máximo -6769.22764
-8808.09177 -7996.5309 Suma -8929961.92
-9129.59147 -9428.4169 Cuenta 1000
-9214.98464 -9502.1202 Nivel de confianz 47.7771426
-6891.21748 -9767.4224
-8429.56329 -9271.5381
-8712.35791 -9793.6938
-7841.50185 -9003.4065
-8783.89301 -9087.6389
-8492.26753 -8386.8744
-9076.45494 -7907.4463
-9118.44873 -8591.1861
-8861.40589 -8538.6173
-9052.37062 -8607.5823
-9590.30702 -9765.4131
-9798.08289 -6916.59
-8269.06841 -10136.538
-9274.11224 -9327.9622
-9398.86372 -7859.6874
-7360.8856 -10234.073
-9541.94137 -10028.423
-9254.04138 -8161.0492
-8487.06455 -9575.5339
-8779.65785 -9376.548
-10288.1858 -9827.6816
-8982.96918 -9325.9654
-7885.30689 -9164.5475
-9473.16634 -7989.6349
-9687.85665 -9502.4985
-7335.39414 -8568.4264
-9213.1563 -8512.3255
-9911.72389 -8485.7386
-9508.97823 -9664.02
-9731.92254 -9685.5887
-8044.03338 -10090.144
-9442.26251 -8352.1285
-8056.29162 -8442.4178
-9051.5436 -7603.8547
-10208.443 -10033.418
-9508.70475 -8476.4604
-9526.92137 -9626.621
-9338.43639 -8589.0877
-9703.62777 -9548.2228
-8862.26042 -9235.2312
-9451.40078 -8638.817
-9003.17841 -7736.2511
-9723.25125 -8435.439
-9653.54717 -9037.7075
-9048.0779 -9829.7302
-9584.52315 -8181.0134
-9552.01963 -9821.0258
-8240.05233 -8851.7495
-9301.57609 -10485.593
-9398.20061 -8871.5383
-8444.74352 -9235.2596
-8116.09693 -9111.6225
-8311.9628 -8571.1977
-7620.25629 -8936.2881
-7413.99609 -9716.1746
-7670.14454 -9268.3108
-9267.91347 -9272.2872
-8748.51252 -9035.9868
-8878.02558 -8823.8284
-8363.2769 -9923.8017
-8164.64914 -9655.0007
-9294.67618 -8482.2803
-9066.99473 -10150.019
-8887.89297 -8249.107
-7866.1789 -9567.0492
-9735.72778 -7015.9587
-9315.09983 -9072.6667
-9020.01552 -8379.1763
-10226.2841 -9740.4441
-9254.36158 -7942.9501
-9248.11944 -9763.1453
-6913.52908 -8523.6027
-8184.56215 -9855.3208
-8536.02768 -8901.0736
-9233.06798 -8664.1133
-9793.64136 -8416.4411
-7873.61491 -9745.9454
-9648.40519 -7219.2296
-7587.76408 -8758.5919
-8980.91893 -9713.6021
-9900.97018 -9904.1875
-7863.16996 -9198.3666
-9653.04328 -9490.0291
-7044.4864 -9557.661
-10105.774 -9927.3003
-8673.4976 -7026.2983
-9044.91802 -9016.4801
-9208.29718 -10320.643
-7951.63692 -8517.2296
-10127.338 -9325.0823
-7981.78679 -7986.858
-9898.52857 -9987.7065
-10096.6883 -8029.1013
-9418.609 -9743.0401
-8498.41679 -9257.2294
-9015.58953 -10374.906
-8820.76298 -9732.2085
-9997.50709 -10035.757
-9107.88267 -8627.8495
-6884.14271 -9101.8135
-9592.45103 -8141.2667
-9458.44322 -9397.3199
-9282.23458 -8586.795
-9093.81739 -9630.3215
-9636.54241 -7852.9568
-9235.09689 -7860.1354
-9657.91734 -10025.964
-8025.96752 -7080.6739
-7994.12434 -9734.753
-8884.32221 -8672.8267
-8797.10893 -9915.5456
-9868.47666 -8850.3107
-9935.03755 -8263.4595
-9659.94188 -8260.0179
-9935.7908 -8743.9483
-7837.09994 -9122.3247
 Columna1 Columna1

Media -8947.36705 Media -8932.39218

Error típico 24.1458271 Error típico 24.4887697
Mediana -9013.02287 Mediana -9012.1814
Moda #N/A Moda #N/A
Desviación es 763.558098 Desviación es 774.402892
Varianza de l 583020.969 Varianza de l 599699.84
Curtosis -0.32172419 Curtosis -0.28539097
Coeficiente d 0.3567588 Coeficiente d 0.36016178
Rango 3858.15026 Rango 4150.4612
Mínimo -10736.2165 Mínimo -10791.6184
Máximo -6878.06627 Máximo -6641.1572
Suma -8947367.05 Suma -8932392.18
Cuenta 1000 Cuenta 1000
Nivel de conf 47.3823577 Nivel de conf 48.055328