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4 Avaluo XYZ
4 Avaluo XYZ
Antecedentes
Empresa,que,se,valúa XZ
Actividad Secundaria
Sector Industria,alimentaria
Objeto,del,avalúo Estimar,el,valor,capital,de,la,empresa
Uso,del,avalúo Uso,académico
Fecha,del,avalúo 31,de,Diciembre,de,2019
Moneda Pesos,mexicanos
Paridad $18.93,pesos,por,dólar,americano
XZ,$S.A.$de$C.V.,$Estado$de$situacion$financiera$a$diciembre$de$cada$año,$miles$de$pesos,$precios$corrientes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Activo/circulante ////////////////////2,417,886 //////////////2,805,946 ///////////4,171,740 /////4,908,175 //////5,119,926
Activo/no/circulante ////////////////////2,941,476 //////////////3,186,291 ///////////5,769,019 /////6,080,909 //////6,365,581
Activo/total ////////////////////5,359,362 //////////////5,992,237 ///////////9,940,759 ///10,989,084 ////11,485,507
Control 0 0 0 0 0
Estados financieros proporcionados por la empresa deben estar dictaminados o en su caso, firmados por
funcionario autorizado de la empresa
Leoncio Angulo Valenzuela, 6673 890252,
3
langulovalenzuela@gmail.com
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
Estados Financieros Históricos, precios corrientes, paso 2
XZ,,S.A.,De,C.V.,,Estado,de,resultados,a,diciembre,de,cada,año,,miles,de,pesos,,precios,corrientes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ingresos --------------------4,288,999 --------------4,765,444 -----------6,468,266 ---13,844,600 ----15,734,264
Costo-de-ventas --------------------3,284,560 --------------3,662,893 -----------4,611,552 ---10,006,822 ----11,325,750
Utilidad-bruta --------------------1,004,439 --------------1,102,551 -----------1,856,714 -----3,837,778 ------4,408,514
Gastos-operación -----------------------689,453 -----------------765,546 -----------1,023,677 -----1,526,730 ------1,654,548
Utilidad-de-operación -----------------------314,986 -----------------337,005 --------------833,037 -----2,311,048 ------2,753,966
CIF -------------------------24,567 C---------------------2,242 --------------132,815 --------356,344 ---------229,568
UAI -----------------------290,419 -----------------339,247 --------------700,222 -----1,954,704 ------2,524,398
Utilidad-neta -----------------------188,772 -----------------212,911 --------------459,346 -----1,308,283 ------1,695,386
Tasa-fiscal-corporativa 35.00% 37.24% 34.40% 33.07% 32.84%
Factor.de.actualizacion
Mes Indice Factor
Diciembre(de(2019 105.934 1.0000
Diciembre(de(2018 103.020 1.0283
Diciembre(de(2017 98.273 1.0780
Diciembre(de(2016 92.039 1.1510
Diciembre(de(2015 89.047 1.1896
Estado'de'situacion'financiera'a'diciembre'de'cada'año,'miles'de'pesos,'precios'constantes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
***************************1.190 *********************1.151 ******************1.078 ************1.028 *************1.000
Activo*circulante ********************2,876,417 **************3,229,556 ***********4,496,953 *****5,047,007 ******5,119,926
Activo*no*circulante ********************3,499,302 **************3,667,321 ***********6,218,750 *****6,252,912 ******6,365,581
Activo*total ********************6,375,719 **************6,896,877 *********10,715,704 ***11,299,919 ****11,485,507
Control 0 0 0 0 0
Estado'de'resultados'a'diciembre'de'cada'año,'miles'de'pesos,'precios'constantes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
***************************1.190 *********************1.151 ******************1.078 ************1.028 *************1.000
Ingresos ********************5,102,371 **************5,484,876 ***********6,972,508 ***14,236,205 ****15,734,264
Costo*de*ventas ********************3,907,449 **************4,215,875 ***********4,971,052 ***10,289,873 ****11,325,750
Utilidad*bruta ********************1,194,922 **************1,269,002 ***********2,001,457 *****3,946,333 ******4,408,514
Gastos*operación ***********************820,202 *****************881,119 ***********1,103,479 *****1,569,915 ******1,654,548
Utilidad*de*operación ***********************374,720 *****************387,882 **************897,977 *****2,376,418 ******2,753,966
CIF *************************29,226 D*********************2,580 **************143,169 ********366,423 *********229,568
UAI ***********************345,494 *****************390,463 **************754,809 *****2,009,994 ******2,524,398
Utilidad*neta ***********************224,571 *****************245,054 **************495,155 *****1,345,289 ******1,695,386
Tasa*fiscal*corporativa 35.0% 37.2% 34.4% 33.1% 32.8%
Capital/invertido/
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Activo'no'circulante ''''''''''''''''''''3,499,302 ''''''''''''''3,667,321 '''''''''''6,218,750 '''''6,252,912 ''''''6,365,581
Capital'trabajo' '''''''''''''''''''''''520,292 ''''''''''''''1,224,638 '''''''''''1,081,324 '''''2,001,214 ''''''2,921,074
Capital'invertido' ''''''''''''''''''''4,019,594 ''''''''''''''4,891,958 '''''''''''7,300,074 '''''8,254,126 ''''''9,286,655
Control 0 0 0 0 0
Reinversiones)de)capital)invertido
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Capital/invertido ////////////////////4,019,594 //////////////4,891,958 ///////////7,300,074 /////8,254,126 //////9,286,655
Reinversiones ///////////////////////872,365 //////////////2,408,116 //////////////954,052 /////1,032,529 //////1,161,691
Tasa$de$reinversiones$(Tre)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Promedio
Capital5invertido 555555555555555555554,019,594 555555555555554,891,958 555555555557,300,074 555558,254,126 5555559,286,655 55556,750,481
Reinversiones 55555555555555555555555872,365 555555555555552,408,116 55555555555555954,052 555551,032,529 5555551,161,691 55551,285,750
Tre5(CI) 23.29%
Tre5(Reinv.) 7.42%
Tre5(reinv./CI) 19.05%
Tre$seleccionada 7.42%
Control 0 0 0 0 0
Estructura(de(capital
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Capital/contable 76.76% 81.52% 57.94% 64.97% 74.48%
Pasivo/no/circulante 23.24% 18.48% 42.06% 35.03% 25.52%
Capital/invertido/ 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Analisis6horizontal
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Crecimiento
Ingresos ////////////////////5,102,371 //////////////5,484,876 ///////////6,972,508 ///14,236,205 ////15,734,264 1.3252
Costo/de/ventas ////////////////////3,907,449 //////////////4,215,875 ///////////4,971,052 ///10,289,873 ////11,325,750 1.3048
Utilidad/bruta ////////////////////1,194,922 //////////////1,269,002 ///////////2,001,457 /////3,946,333 //////4,408,514 1.3859
Gastos/operación ///////////////////////820,202 /////////////////881,119 ///////////1,103,479 /////1,569,915 //////1,654,548 1.1918
Utilidad/de/operación ///////////////////////374,720 /////////////////387,882 //////////////897,977 /////2,376,418 //////2,753,966 1.6465
CIF /////////////////////////29,226 D/////////////////////2,580 //////////////143,169 ////////366,423 /////////229,568 1.6741
UAI ///////////////////////345,494 /////////////////390,463 //////////////754,809 /////2,009,994 //////2,524,398 1.6441
Utilidad/neta ///////////////////////224,571 /////////////////245,054 //////////////495,155 /////1,345,289 //////1,695,386 1.6576
Rendimiento1del1capital1invertido1(ROIC)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EBIT +++++++++++++++++++++++374,720 +++++++++++++++++387,882 ++++++++++++++897,977 +++++2,376,418 ++++++2,753,966
Tasa+fiscal 35.00% 37.24% 34.40% 33.07% 32.84%
NOPAT+ 243,568 243,435 589,073 1,590,536 1,849,564
Capital+invertido ++++++++++++++++++++4,019,594 ++++++++++++++4,891,958 +++++++++++7,300,074 +++++8,254,126 ++++++9,286,655
ROIC 6.06% 4.98% 8.07% 19.27% 19.92%
Rendimiento1sobre1capital1(ROE)
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Utilidad'neta '''''''''''''''''''''''224,571 '''''''''''''''''245,054 ''''''''''''''495,155 '''''1,345,289 ''''''1,695,386
Capital'contable ''''''''''''''''''''3,085,283 ''''''''''''''3,988,020 '''''''''''4,229,627 '''''5,362,526 ''''''6,916,885
ROE 7.28% 6.14% 11.71% 25.09% 24.51%
Apalancamiento4operativo
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ingresos ////////////////////5,102,371 //////////////5,484,876 ///////////6,972,508 ///14,236,205 ////15,734,264
Variacion/ingresos 7.50% 27.12% 104.18% 10.52% 10.52%
Utilidad/operativa ///////////////////////374,720 /////////////////387,882 //////////////897,977 /////2,376,418 //////2,753,966
Var./utilidad/oper. 3.51% 131.51% 164.64% 15.89% 15.89%
/Variacion/(/Vuo/BVi) B3.98% 104.39% 60.46% 5.36% 5.36%
Cambios0capital0de0trabajo
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Activo'circulante ''''''''''''''''''''2,876,417 ''''''''''''''3,229,556 '''''''''''4,496,953 '''''5,047,007 ''''''5,119,926
Pasivo'circulante ''''''''''''''''''''2,356,125 ''''''''''''''2,004,918 '''''''''''3,415,630 '''''3,045,793 ''''''2,198,852
Capital'de'trabajo '''''''''''''''''''''''520,292 ''''''''''''''1,224,638 '''''''''''1,081,324 '''''2,001,214 ''''''2,921,074
Cambios'capital'trabajo '''''''''''''''''''''''704,345 A'''''''''''''''''143,314 ''''''''''''''919,890 ''''''''919,860 '''''''''919,860
Apalancamiento4financiero
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pasivo'largo'plazo '''''''''''''''''''''''934,311 '''''''''''''''''903,939 '''''''''''3,070,448 '''''2,891,600 ''''''2,369,770
Capital'contable ''''''''''''''''''''3,085,283 ''''''''''''''3,988,020 '''''''''''4,229,627 '''''5,362,526 ''''''6,916,885
D/C 30.28% 22.67% 72.59% 53.92% 34.26%
Cambios0de0activo0no0circulante
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Activo'no'circulante ''''''''''''''''''''3,499,302 ''''''''''''''3,667,321 '''''''''''6,218,750 '''''6,252,912 ''''''6,365,581
Cambios'activo'no'circulante '''''''''''''''''''''''168,019 ''''''''''''''2,551,429 ''''''''''''''''34,162 ''''''''112,669 '''''''''112,669
Cambios0de0capital0invertido0sobre0ingresos
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ingresos ////////////////////5,102,371 //////////////5,484,876 ///////////6,972,508 ///14,236,205 ////15,734,264
Capital/invertido ////////////////////4,019,594 //////////////4,891,958 ///////////7,300,074 /////8,254,126 //////9,286,655
Cambios/capital/inv. ///////////////////////872,365 //////////////2,408,116 //////////////954,052 /////1,032,529 //////1,032,529
Cambios/CI/Ingresos 17.10% 43.90% 13.68% 7.25% 6.56%
Razones5fundamentales
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Promedio
Ebit/ingresos 7.34% 7.07% 12.88% 16.69% 17.50% 12.30%
Utilidad<neta/ingresos 4.40% 4.47% 7.10% 9.45% 10.78% 7.24%
Capital<trabajo/Ingresos 10.20% 22.33% 15.51% 14.06% 18.57% 16.13%
Activo<circulante/Activo< 45.12% 46.83% 41.97% 44.66% 44.58% 44.63%
Pasivo<circulante/Activo 36.95% 13.11% 28.65% 25.59% 20.63% 24.99%
Pasivo/Activo 51.61% 42.18% 60.53% 52.54% 39.78% 49.33%
Estado'de'resultados'a'diciembre'de'cada'año,'miles'de'pesos,'precios'constantes
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
***************************1.190 *********************1.151 ******************1.078 ************1.028 *************1.000
Ingresos ********************5,102,371 **************5,484,876 ***********6,972,508 ***14,236,205 ****15,734,264
Costo*de*ventas ********************3,907,449 **************4,215,875 ***********4,971,052 ***10,289,873 ****11,325,750
Utilidad*bruta ********************1,194,922 **************1,269,002 ***********2,001,457 *****3,946,333 ******4,408,514
Gastos*operación ***********************820,202 *****************881,119 ***********1,103,479 *****1,569,915 ******1,654,548
Utilidad*de*operación ***********************374,720 *****************387,882 **************897,977 *****2,376,418 ******2,753,966
CIF *************************29,226 D*********************2,580 **************143,169 ********366,423 *********229,568
UAI ***********************345,494 *****************390,463 **************754,809 *****2,009,994 ******2,524,398
Utilidad*neta ***********************224,571 *****************245,054 **************495,155 *****1,345,289 ******1,695,386
Tasa*fiscal*corporativa 35.0% 37.2% 34.4% 33.1% 32.8%
21
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
Normalización, paso 19
Normalizacion+del+Ebit,+Nopat+y+Un
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Crec./promedio
Ventas ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;5,102,371 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;5,484,876 ;;;;;;;;;;;6,972,508 ;;;14,236,205 ;;;;15,734,264 1.3252
Ebit;normalizado ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;627,495 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;674,535 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;857,486 ;;;;;1,750,782 ;;;;;;1,935,015 1.3252
Un;normalizado ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;369,366 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;397,056 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;504,748 ;;;;;1,030,575 ;;;;;;1,139,021 1.3252
Tasa;fiscal 35.00% 37.24% 34.40% 33.07% 32.84% 34.51%
Nopat 407,871 423,338 562,511 1,171,799 1,299,556 1.3360
Capital;invertido ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;4,019,594 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;4,891,958 ;;;;;;;;;;;7,300,074 ;;;;;8,254,126 ;;;;;;9,286,655 1.2329
Reinversiones; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;872,365 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2,408,116 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;954,052 ;;;;;1,032,529 ;;;;;;1,161,691 1.0742
Razones5fundamentales
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Promedio
Ebit/ingresos 7.34% 7.07% 12.88% 16.69% 17.50% 12.30%
Utilidad<neta/ingresos 4.40% 4.47% 7.10% 9.45% 10.78% 7.24%
Capital<trabajo/Ingresos 10.20% 22.33% 15.51% 14.06% 18.57% 16.13%
Activo<circulante/Activo< 45.12% 46.83% 41.97% 44.66% 44.58% 44.63%
Pasivo<circulante/Activo 36.95% 13.11% 28.65% 25.59% 20.63% 24.99%
Pasivo/Activo 51.61% 42.18% 60.53% 52.54% 39.78% 49.33%
22
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
Normalización, paso 19
Normalizacion+del+Ebit,+Nopat+y+Un
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Crec./promedio
Ventas ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;5,102,371 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;5,484,876 ;;;;;;;;;;;6,972,508 ;;;14,236,205 ;;;;15,734,264 1.3252
Ebit;normalizado ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;627,495 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;674,535 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;857,486 ;;;;;1,750,782 ;;;;;;1,935,015 1.3252
Un;normalizado ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;369,366 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;397,056 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;504,748 ;;;;;1,030,575 ;;;;;;1,139,021 1.3252
Tasa;fiscal 35.00% 37.24% 34.40% 33.07% 32.84% 34.51%
Nopat 407,871 423,338 562,511 1,171,799 1,299,556 1.3360
Capital;invertido ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;4,019,594 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;4,891,958 ;;;;;;;;;;;7,300,074 ;;;;;8,254,126 ;;;;;;9,286,655 1.2329
Reinversiones; ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;872,365 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;2,408,116 ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;954,052 ;;;;;1,032,529 ;;;;;;1,161,691 1.0742
(Ebit) normalizado: 627,495 = 5,102,371 x 12.30% , ventas por tasa promedio Ebit, tabla razones fundamentales
(Un) normalizado: 369,366 = 5,102,371 x 7.24% , ventas por utilidad neta promedio, tabla razones fundamentales
Tasa$de$crecimiento$g
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Crec./promedio
Nopat 407,871 423,338 562,511 1,171,799 1,299,556 1.1090
Capital;invertido ;;;;;;;;;;4,019,594 ;;;;;;4,891,958 ;;;;;;7,300,074 ;;;;;8,254,126 ;;;;;;9,286,655 1.1279
ROIC 10.15% 8.65% 7.71% 14.20% 13.99% 10.94%
Roic = 10.15% Reinversiones ;;;;;;;;;;;;;872,365 ;;;;;;2,408,116 ;;;;;;;;;954,052 ;;;;;1,032,529 ;;;;;;1,161,691 1.0742
407,871/4,019,594 FCL E;;;;;;;;;;;;;464,493 E;;;;;;1,984,777 E;;;;;;;;;391,541 ;;;;;;;;139,270 ;;;;;;;;;137,865 0.9899
Reinversiones;% 21.70% 49.23% 13.07% 12.51% 12.51% 21.80%
g;(Roic;*;Reinv.) 2.20% 4.26% 1.01% 1.78% 1.75% 2.20%
Nopat g =1.10901=10.9%
Escenarios
Costo*de*los*pasivos*(Kd)
TIIE$+3 10.25% Fuente:$www.banxico.org.mx
Inflacion$promedio 3.98% Fuente:$www.banxico.org.mx
Kd$real 6.03% Costo$de$los$pasivos
TIIE + 3 : 10.25% = 7.25% + 3.00% 3.98% : tabla página 46 Kd : 6.03% : ( 1.1025 / 1.0398 ) -1
Tasa$libre$de$riesgo$(Rf)
Bono$10$años$Banxico 6.67% Fuente: www.investing.com
Inflacion 3.98% Fuente: www.inegi.org.mx
Rf$real 2.59% Tasa$libre$de$riesgo
Rendimiento)de)mercado)(Rm)
IPC$de$la$BMV 13.28% Fuente: www.investing.com
Inflacion 3.98% Fuente: www.inegi.org.mx
Rm$real 8.94% Rendimiento$de$mercado
Beta%%%
Beta%del%sector%% Tasa%fiscal%sector D/C%sector
0.64 31.59% 41.65%
Bd5=5Bs5/5(1+5((18Tfs)*(DCs))
Br5=5Bd5*5(1+5((18Tfe)*(DCe))
0.64 : tabla página 41 41.65 % : tabla página 31
Br=Bs5/5(1+((18Tfs)*(DCs)*5(1+((18Tfe)*(DCe))
Bs 0.640
Tfs 31.59%
D/Cs 41.65%
Tfe 34.51% 34.51 % : tabla página 87
D/Ce 34.26%
34.26 % : tabla pagina 86
Br 0.61
Leoncio Angulo Valenzuela, 6673 890252,
29
langulovalenzuela@gmail.com
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
CAPM, paso 26
CAPM = rf + β ( Rm – rf )
CAPM
Rf 2.59% Tasa7libre7riesgo
Rm 8.94% Rendimiento7mercado
Beta 0.61 Beta7
Capm 6.47% Ke
0.61 : página 88
2.59 % : página 88 8.94 % : página 88
WACC
Kd 6.03% Costo1pasivos 6.03 % : página 88
34.51 % : página 87 t 34.51% Tasa1fiscal
D 11111111112,369,770 Pasivo1no1circulante 2,369,770 : página 83
6,916,885 : página 83 C 11111111116,916,885 Capital1contable
D+C 11111111119,286,655 Pasivo1+1capital
Ke 6.47% Costo1inversionistas 6.47 % : página 88
WACC 5.82% Tasa1ponderada1real
Valor$presente$de$flujo$de$caja$libre$(FCL)
Wacc$=$$5.82% g= 2.20% Tf 34.51% Tre 7.42%
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Terminal
Wacc : página 89 Ebit 1,977,568 2,021,057 2,065,502 2,110,925 2,157,346 2,204,789
Nopat:: 1,295,109 1,323,590 1,352,697 1,382,445 1,412,846 1,443,916
Capital:invertido ::::::::9,976,022 ::::10,716,563 ::::11,512,075 :::12,366,640 ::::13,284,641 :::::::14,270,788
Reinversiones 740,541 795,512 854,565 918,001 986,146 313,830
FCL :::::::::::554,569 :::::::::528,078 :::::::::498,132 ::::::::464,444 :::::::::426,700 :::::::::1,130,086
Factor:PV :::::::::::::::0.945 :::::::::::::0.893 :::::::::::::0.844 ::::::::::::0.797 :::::::::::::0.754 ::::::::::::::20.792
Valor:presente:parcial :::::::::::524,052 :::::::::471,559 :::::::::420,342 ::::::::370,348 :::::::::321,528 :::::::23,496,863
Valor$empresa$(EV) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$25,604,692
Valor$presente$de$flujo$de$caja$libre$(FCL)
Wacc$=$$5.82% g= 2.20% Tf 34.51% Tre 7.42%
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Terminal
Ebit 1,977,568 2,021,057 2,065,502 2,110,925 2,157,346 2,204,789
Nopat:: 1,295,109 1,323,590 1,352,697 1,382,445 1,412,846 1,443,916
Capital:invertido ::::::::9,976,022 ::::10,716,563 ::::11,512,075 :::12,366,640 ::::13,284,641 :::::::14,270,788
Reinversiones 740,541 795,512 854,565 918,001 986,146 313,830
FCL :::::::::::554,569 :::::::::528,078 :::::::::498,132 ::::::::464,444 :::::::::426,700 :::::::::1,130,086
Factor:PV :::::::::::::::0.945 :::::::::::::0.893 :::::::::::::0.844 ::::::::::::0.797 :::::::::::::0.754 ::::::::::::::20.792
Valor:presente:parcial :::::::::::524,052 :::::::::471,559 :::::::::420,342 ::::::::370,348 :::::::::321,528 :::::::23,496,863
Valor$empresa$(EV) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$25,604,692
Valor$presente$de$flujo$de$caja$libre$(FCL)
Wacc$=$$5.82% g= 2.20% Tf 34.51% Tre 7.42%
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Terminal
Ebit 1,977,568 2,021,057 2,065,502 2,110,925 2,157,346 2,204,789
Nopat:: 1,295,109 1,323,590 1,352,697 1,382,445 1,412,846 1,443,916
Capital:invertido ::::::::9,976,022 ::::10,716,563 ::::11,512,075 :::12,366,640 ::::13,284,641 :::::::14,270,788
Reinversiones 740,541 795,512 854,565 918,001 986,146 313,830
FCL :::::::::::554,569 :::::::::528,078 :::::::::498,132 ::::::::464,444 :::::::::426,700 :::::::::1,130,086
Factor:PV :::::::::::::::0.945 :::::::::::::0.893 :::::::::::::0.844 ::::::::::::0.797 :::::::::::::0.754 ::::::::::::::20.792
Valor:presente:parcial :::::::::::524,052 :::::::::471,559 :::::::::420,342 ::::::::370,348 :::::::::321,528 :::::::23,496,863
Valor$empresa$(EV) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$25,604,692
Valor$presente$de$flujo$de$caja$libre$(FCL)
Wacc$=$$5.82% g= 2.20% Tf 34.51% Tre 7.42%
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Terminal
Ebit 1,977,568 2,021,057 2,065,502 2,110,925 2,157,346 2,204,789
Nopat:: 1,295,109 1,323,590 1,352,697 1,382,445 1,412,846 1,443,916
Capital:invertido ::::::::9,976,022 ::::10,716,563 ::::11,512,075 :::12,366,640 ::::13,284,641 :::::::14,270,788
Reinversiones 740,541 795,512 854,565 918,001 986,146 313,830
FCL :::::::::::554,569 :::::::::528,078 :::::::::498,132 ::::::::464,444 :::::::::426,700 :::::::::1,130,086
Factor:PV :::::::::::::::0.945 :::::::::::::0.893 :::::::::::::0.844 ::::::::::::0.797 :::::::::::::0.754 ::::::::::::::20.792
Valor:presente:parcial :::::::::::524,052 :::::::::471,559 :::::::::420,342 ::::::::370,348 :::::::::321,528 :::::::23,496,863
Valor$empresa$(EV) $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$25,604,692
Pasivo circulante
Activo
circulante Pasivo largo plazo
Capital
Activo
diferido
Valor&del&capital&(EqV)
Valor&empresa&(EV) $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&25,604,692 Valor empresa: página 89
Capital&de&trabajo $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,921,074 Capital trabajo : página 84
Activo&no&operativo $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&E
Pasivo&no&circulante $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,369,770 Pasivo no circ. : página 84
Valor&capital&(EqV) $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&26,155,996
Pasivo circulante
Activo fijo
Valor&economico&agregado&(EVA)
Wacc$=$$5.82% g= 2.20%
1 2 3 4 5 6
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Terminal
Nopat 1,295,109 1,323,590 1,352,697 1,382,445 1,412,846 1,443,916
Capital$invertido $$$$$$$$9,976,022 $$$$10,716,563 $$$$11,512,075 $$$12,366,640 $$$$13,284,641 $$$$$$$14,270,788
ROIC 12.98% 12.35% 11.75% 11.18% 10.64% 10.12%
WACC 5.82% 5.82% 5.82% 5.82% 5.82% 5.82%
EVA$ $$$$$$$$$$$714,187 $$$$$$$$$699,545 $$$$$$$$$682,328 $$$$$$$$662,312 $$$$$$$$$639,257 $$$$$$$$$$$$612,902
Factor$VP $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$0.945 $$$$$$$$$$$$$0.893 $$$$$$$$$$$$$0.844 $$$$$$$$$$$$0.797 $$$$$$$$$$$$$0.754 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$20.792
Valor$presente$$$ $$$$$$$$$$$674,887 $$$$$$$$$624,675 $$$$$$$$$575,772 $$$$$$$$528,128 $$$$$$$$$481,694 $$$$$$$12,743,513
Valor&presente&de&EVA&& $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&15,628,670
Nopat, capital invertido, Wacc y factor VP son los mismos del flujo de caja libre : página 89
ROIC = 12.98% = 1,295,109 / 9,976,022 EVA = valor presente suma seis valores 714,187 = 9,976,022 x (ROIC – WACC)
Leoncio Angulo Valenzuela, 6673 890252,
39
langulovalenzuela@gmail.com
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
Conciliación de valores, paso 31
Conciliacion,de,FCL,y,EVA
Concepto Flujo,caja,descontado Valor,economico,agregado
Valor&presente $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&25,604,692 $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&15,628,670 Página 89
Capital&trabajo $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,921,074 $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,921,074
Página 84
Activo&no&operativo $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&@ $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&@
Capital&Invertido $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&@ $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&9,976,022 Página 89
Pasivo&largo&plazo $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,369,770 $&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&2,369,770
Página 84
Valor,capital,(EqV) $,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,26,155,996 $,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,26,155,996
Valor del capital de la empresa : página 89 26,155,996 = 15,628,670 + 2,921,074 + 9,976,022 – 2,369,996
Analisis'cuantitativo'de'la'empresa'en'el'año'2019
No Indicador Monto Sector.Alimentos Calificación
1 Liquidez .................2.33 1.71 3
2 Apalancamiento .................0.66 1.53 3
3 ROA 14.76% 4.20% 3
4 ROE 24.51% 9.68% 3
5 ROIC 19.92% 5.83% 3
6 Ebit.g. 32.52% 6.40% 3
7 Múltiplo.FCF .............185.72 ..................27.29 1
8 Múltiplo.PER ...............15.43 25.57 3
9 Múltiplo.Ebit .................9.30 13.95 3
10 Múltiplo.capital .................3.70 3.23 2
Suma 27
Analisis'cuantitativo'de'la'empresa'en'el'año'2019
No Indicador Monto Sector.Alimentos Calificación
1 Liquidez .................2.33 1.71 3
2 Apalancamiento .................0.66 1.53 3
3 ROA 14.76% 4.20% 3
4 ROE 24.51% 9.68% 3
5 ROIC 19.92% 5.83% 3
6 Ebit.g. 32.52% 6.40% 3
7 Múltiplo.FCF .............185.72 ..................27.29 1
8 Múltiplo.PER ...............15.43 25.57 3
9 Múltiplo.Ebit .................9.30 13.95 3
10 Múltiplo.capital .................3.70 3.23 2
Suma 27
Ebit g = Página 87
Analisis'cuantitativo'de'la'empresa'en'el'año'2019
No Indicador Monto Sector.Alimentos Calificación
1 Liquidez .................2.33 1.71 3
2 Apalancamiento .................0.66 1.53 3
3 ROA 14.76% 4.20% 3
4 ROE 24.51% 9.68% 3
5 ROIC 19.92% 5.83% 3
6 Ebit.g. 32.52% 6.40% 3
7 Múltiplo.FCF .............185.72 ..................27.29 1
8 Múltiplo.PER ...............15.43 25.57 3
9 Múltiplo.Ebit .................9.30 13.95 3
10 Múltiplo.capital .................3.70 3.23 2
Suma 27
Analisis'cuantitativo'de'la'empresa'en'el'año'2019
No Indicador Monto Sector.Alimentos Calificación
1 Liquidez .................2.33 1.71 3
2 Apalancamiento .................0.66 1.53 3
3 ROA 14.76% 4.20% 3
4 ROE 24.51% 9.68% 3
5 ROIC 19.92% 5.83% 3
6 Ebit.g. 32.52% 6.40% 3
7 Múltiplo.FCF .............185.72 ..................27.29 1
8 Múltiplo.PER ...............15.43 25.57 3
9 Múltiplo.Ebit .................9.30 13.95 3
10 Múltiplo.capital .................3.70 3.23 2
Suma 27
Condición:
1 = si sector es mejor que empresa
2 = si empresa y sector son similares
3 = si empresa es mejor que sector
Leoncio Angulo Valenzuela, 6673 890252,
44
langulovalenzuela@gmail.com
Avalúo número 1
Empresa que no cotiza en bolsa
Análisis cuantitativo, paso 32
BMV,4principales4indicadores4financieros42019,4sector4alimentos
No Empresa Ac/Pc P/A P/C ROA ROE ROIC EV/FCL FCL4Yield EBITg PER EV/C EV/E
1 Arca 1.49025 0.5265 1.1121 4.9% 10.4% 6.3% 6666618.43 5.4% 2.5% 20.54 2.3082 12.90
2 Alsea 0.31121 0.8746 1.4% 11.3% 2.8% 6666631.91 3.1% 12.8% 52.6 10.654 22.34
3 Bachoco 3.46264 0.2794 0.3877 5.7% 7.9% 12.4% 6666612.14 8.2% 21.21 0.8297 8.50
4 BAFAR 0.89037 0.662 1.9585 3.3% 9.9% 5.5% 6666620.94 4.8% 13.5% 3.4109 14.66
5 Bimbo 0.80919 0.7365 2.7947 2.6% 10.0% 4.0% 6666622.47 4.5% 23.09 4.3553 15.73
6 CMR 0.43083 0.7355 2.7801 0.4% 0.6% 3.2521
7 Cuervo 4.73306 0.3129 0.4555 5.3% 7.6% 10.1% 6666630.77 3.2% 27.47 2.3982 21.54
8 Cultiba 1.28513 0.1442 0.1685 3.9% 6666671.97 1.4% 0.7054
9 Gruma 2.19465 0.6104 1.5668 7.3% 18.7% 9.4% 6666614.56 6.9% 17.28 3.65 10.19
10 Herdez 2.37143 0.759 3.1486 6.7% 4.4% 6666614.62 6.8% 2.0% 14.66 3.7073 10.23
11 CocaColaFe 1.11343 0.5232 1.10 4.9% 10.4% 7.8% 6666613.36 7.5% 1.2% 19.07 1.8624 9.35
12 Lala 1.04766 0.695 2.2789 2.5% 8.2% 4.3% 6666620.05 5.0% 23.47 3.2285 14.04
13 Minsa 2.09645 0.3622 0.5679 1.5% 2.4% 4.3% 6666656.26 1.8% 36.28 1.6623
1.71 0.56 1.53 4.20% 9.68% 5.83% 4444427.29 4.55% 6.40% 25.57 3.23 13.95
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