Estado Financiero Anual Individual (En miles de nuevos soles)

CEMENTOS PACASMAYO S.A.A.

ESTADO DE SITUACION FINANCIERA / STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION

Activos/
Activos Corrientes/
Efectivo y Equivalentes al Efectivo/
Otros Activos Financieros/
Cuentas por Cobrar Comerciales y Otras Cuentas por Cobrar/
Cuentas por Cobrar Comerciales/
Cuentas por Cobrar a Entidades Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas por Cobrar/
Anticipos/
Inventarios/
Activos Biológicos/
Activos por Impuestos a las Ganancias/
Otros Activos no Financieros/
Activos Corrientes Distintos al Efectivo Pignorados como Garantía Colateral/
Total Activos Corrientes Distintos de los Activos no Corrientes o Grupos de Activos
para su Disposición Clasificados como Mantenidos para la Venta o para Distribuir a
los Propietarios/

Activos no Corrientes o Grupos de Activos para su Disposición Clasificados como

Mantenidos para la Venta o como Mantenidos para Distribuir a los Propietarios/

Total Activos Corrientes/

Activos No Corrientes/
Otros Activos Financieros/
Inversiones en Subsidiarias, Negocios Conjuntos y Asociadas/
Cuentas por Cobrar Comerciales y Otras Cuentas por Cobrar/
Cuentas por Cobrar Comerciales/
Cuentas por Cobrar a Entidades Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas por Cobrar/
Anticipos/
Inventarios/
Activos Biológicos/
Propiedades de Inversión/
Propiedades, Planta y Equipo/
Activos Intangibles Distintos de la Plusvalía/
Activos por Impuestos Diferidos/
Activos por Impuestos Corrientes, no Corrientes/
Plusvalía/
Otros Activos no Financieros/
Activos no Corrientes Distintos al Efectivo Pignorados como Garantía Colateral/
Total Activos No Corrientes/
TOTAL ACTIVOS/
Pasivos y Patrimonio/
Pasivos Corrientes/
Otros Pasivos Financieros/
Cuentas por Pagar Comerciales y Otras Cuentas por Pagar/
Cuentas por Pagar Comerciales/
Cuentas por Pagar a Entidades Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas por Pagar/
Ingresos Diferidos/
Provisión por Beneficios a los Empleados/
 Otras Provisiones/
Pasivos por Impuestos a las Ganancias/
Otros Pasivos no Financieros/
Total Pasivos Corrientes Distintos de Pasivos Incluidos en Grupos de Activos para su
Disposición Clasificados como Mantenidos para la Venta/
Pasivos incluidos en Grupos de Activos para su Disposición Clasificados como
Mantenidos para la Venta/
Total Pasivos Corrientes/
Pasivos No Corrientes/
Otros Pasivos Financieros/
Cuentas por Pagar Comerciales y Otras Cuentas por Pagar/
Cuentas por Pagar Comerciales/
Cuentas por Pagar a Entidades Relacionadas/
Otras Cuentas por Pagar/
Ingresos Diferidos/
Provisión por Beneficios a los Empleados/
Otras Provisiones/
Pasivos por Impuestos Diferidos/
Pasivos por Impuestos Corrientes, no Corriente/
Otros Pasivos no Financieros/
Total Pasivos No Corrientes/
Total Pasivos/
Patrimonio/
Capital Emitido/
Primas de Emisión/
Acciones de Inversión/
Acciones Propias en Cartera/
Otras Reservas de Capital/
Resultados Acumulados/
Otras Reservas de Patrimonio/
Total Patrimonio/
TOTAL PASIVOS Y PATRIMONIO/
 Estado Financiero Anual Individual (En miles de nuevos soles)
CEM

12/31/2020 12/31/2021 12/31/2022

Ingresos de Actividades Ordinarias/

224,434 237,630 56,926 Ganancia (Pérdida) Bruta/

86,893
160,633 116,952 57,669
7,757 8,195 2,865
148,506 99,709 32,981
4,370 9,048 21,823
Ganancia (Pérdida) Operativa/
401,588 515,850 799,468

8,651 Ingresos por Intereses calculados usando el Metodo de I

3,626 15,867 20,881
Ganancia (Pérdida) por Deterioro de Valor (Pérdidas Cr

798,932 886,299 1,021,837

798,932 886,299 1,021,837

Ganancia (Pérdida) Acumulada en Otro Resultado Integ
Razonable reclasificados como cambios en Resultados/
42,939 107,077 274 Ganancias (Pérdidas) por Cobertura de un Grupo de Par
405,153 417,804 492,492
1,638 38,242 40,034 Ganancia (Pérdida) antes de Impuestos/

1,638 38,242 40,034

Ganancia (Pérdida) Neta del Ejercicio/
Ganancias (Pérdida) por Acción:/

1,664,316 1,624,109 1,680,556

23,365 27,112 27,939

2,682 2,093 1,507

2,140,093 2,216,437 2,242,802

2,939,025 3,102,736 3,264,639

65,913 451,805 619,761

132,050 158,363 262,118
47,151 73,896 121,275
8,408 7,594 59,682
 6,057 13,551 19,813
15,018 16,215

204,020 638,737 917,907

204,020 638,737 917,907

1,205,635 1,096,155 975,231

22,251 33,563 45,337

139,564 138,476 131,029

1,367,450 1,268,194 1,151,597

1,571,470 1,906,931 2,069,504

423,868 423,868 423,868

432,779 432,779 432,779
40,279 40,279 40,279
-121,258 -121,258 -121,258
168,636 168,636 168,636
456,629 271,595 268,618
-33,378 -20,094 -17,787
1,367,555 1,195,805 1,195,135
2,939,025 3,102,736 3,264,639
o Anual Individual (En miles de nuevos soles)
CEMENTOS PACASMAYO S.A.A.

ESTADO DE RESULTADOS / INCOME STATEMENT 12/31/2020 12/31/2021

gresos de Actividades Ordinarias/ 5,273,500 6,459,002
Costo de Ventas/ -3,951,848 -5,215,217
anancia (Pérdida) Bruta/ 1,321,652 1,243,785
Gastos de Ventas y Distribución/ -505,649 -521,669
Gastos de Administración/ -445,117 -496,620
Otros Ingresos Operativos/ 49,931 74,090
Otros Gastos Operativos/ -19,397 -32,177
Otras Ganancias (Pérdidas)/ 155 -4,600
anancia (Pérdida) Operativa/ 401,575 262,809
Ganancia (Pérdida) de la Baja en Activos Financieros medidos al Costo Amortizado/
Ingresos Financieros/ 18,646 7,904
gresos por Intereses calculados usando el Metodo de Interes Efectivo/
Gastos Financieros/ -242,926 -237,898
nancia (Pérdida) por Deterioro de Valor (Pérdidas Crediticias Esperadas o Reversiones)/

Otros Ingresos (Gastos) de las Subsidiarias, Asociadas y Negocios Conjuntos/ 213,116 -27,719

Diferencias de Cambio Neto/ -326 -11,746

Ganancias (Pérdidas) por Reclasificación de Activos Financieros a Valor Razonable con

cambios en Resultados antes medidos al Costo Amortizado/
nancia (Pérdida) Acumulada en Otro Resultado Integral por Activos Financieros medidos a Valor
zonable reclasificados como cambios en Resultados/
nancias (Pérdidas) por Cobertura de un Grupo de Partidas con posiciones de Riesgo Compensadoras/
Diferencia entre el Importe en Libros de los Activos Distribuidos y el Importe en Libros
del Dividendo a pagar/
anancia (Pérdida) antes de Impuestos/ 390,085 -6,650
Ingreso (Gasto) por Impuesto/ -62,692 -23,024
Ganancia (Pérdida) Neta de Operaciones Continuadas/ 327,393 -29,674
Ganancia (Pérdida) procedente de Operaciones Discontinuadas, neta de Impuesto/ -4,316
anancia (Pérdida) Neta del Ejercicio/ 327,393 -33,990
anancias (Pérdida) por Acción:/

0
12/31/2022
7,333,173
-5,995,024
1,338,149
-532,258
-497,544
72,277
-41,663
-360
338,601

16,071

-306,792

525,180

-8,465

564,595
-21,360
543,235
-19,092
524,143

0
Revisión de Patrimonio
No tiene efecto de emisión de acciones en los ultimos 5 años.
ones en los ultimos 5 años.
 Vida Depreciación Depreciación Valor en Valor de
Inversión en activos fijos (miles de soles)
Costo util Anual Acumulada Libros Mercado
Trituradora 5500 10 550 5,500 0 550
Terreno (Lurin) 15000 10 1,500 15,000 0 1,500
Construcción de planta 50000 10 5,000 50,000 0 5,000
Maquina apiladora 4500 10 450 4,500 0 450
Excavadora 2450 10 245 2,450 0 245
Torre de precalentamiento 1250 10 125 1,250 0 125
Dumper 2500 10 250 2,500 0 250
Equipos de dosificación 3200 10 320 3,200 0 320
Molino 2500 10 250 2,500 0 250
Horno 5000 10 500 5,000 0 500
Enfriador de clinker 2500 10 250 2,500 0 250
Hilos de almacenamiento 4500 10 450 4,500 0 450
Trailers 8500 10 850 8,500 0 850
Total 107,400 10,740

Proyecto: Nueva planta de producción de ladrillos forte

Valor de Rescate
388
1,058
3,525
317
173
88
176
226
176
353
176
317
599
7,572
 Análisis Horizontal
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS 2020 2021 2022 2020-2021 2021-2022
5,273,500 6,459,002 7,333,173 22.48% 13.53%
Ingresos de actividades ordinarias/

Promedio Crecimiento 2020-2022 18.01%

Promedio Ingresos 6,355,225
Ingresos 2023 30.00%
Ingresos 2024 2,249,888

Proyección de Ingresos 0 1 2 3 4
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Incremento Ventas % (Crecimiento PBI) 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%

Incremento Ventas (miles de soles) 2,249,888 2,339,884 2,433,479 2,530,818
Inversión Capital Trabajo (% sobre las 10%
ventas)
Sector Construcción 4.20%

Inversión en Capital trabajo 0 1 2 3 4

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Capital de trabajo 224,989 233,988 243,348 253,082 263,205
Requerimiento de capital de trabajo 224,989 9,000 9,360 9,734 10,123
Análisis
Vertical/
Horizontal
2020 2021 2022 Vertical 2020 Vertical 2021
Costo de Ventas/ -3,951,848 -5,215,217 -5,995,024 -74.94% -80.74%

Proyección de Costo de Ventas 0 1 2 3

2023 2024 2025 2026
Costo de Ventas (miles soles) -1,780,662 -1,851,888 -1,925,964

Vertical/
Horizontal

2020 2021 2022 Vertical 2020 Vertical 2021

Gastos de Ventas y Distribución/ -505,649 -521,669 -532,258 -9.59% -8.08%
Gastos de Administración/ -445,117 -496,620 -497,544 -8.44% -7.69%

Proyección de Gastos (miles de soles) 0 1 2 3

2023 2024 2025 2026
Inc. Gastos de Venta y Distribución -186,916 -194,392 -202,168
Inc. Gastos de Administración -51,555 -53,617 -55,761
isis Horizontal
Promedio
18.01%

5 6 7 8 9 10
2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%

2,632,051 2,737,333 2,846,826 2,960,699 3,079,127 3,202,292

5 6 7 8 9 10
2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
273,733 284,683 296,070 307,913 320,229
10,528 10,949 11,387 11,843 12,317 320,229

Vertical 2022 Promedio

-81.75% -79.14%

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
-2,003,002 -2,083,122 -2,166,447 -2,253,105 -2,343,229 -2,436,958 -2,534,437

Vertical 2022 Promedio

-7.26% -8.31%
-6.78% -2.29%

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
-210,255 -218,665 -227,412 -236,508 -245,968 -255,807 -266,039
-57,992 -60,312 -62,724 -65,233 -67,842 -70,556 -73,378
Fuente: BCRP (2023)
 Análisis Vertical/Horizontal
ESTADO DE SITUACIÓN Vertical Vertical
2020 2021 2022
FINANCIERA 2020 2021
Total Pasivos (D) 1,571,470 1,906,931 2,069,504
53% 61%
Total patrimonio ( E ) 1,367,555 1,195,805 1,195,135
47% 39%
D/E 1.1 1.6 1.7
100% 100%

FINANCIAMIENTO (miles de soles)

Total de Inversión 332,388.80
%Aporte Inv. ( E ) 41%
% Financiamiento ( D ) 59%
Aporte Inversionistas 134,816.61
Total Financiamiento 197,572.20

INTERBANK
Importe 98,786.10
TASA (TEA) 7.50%
Impuesto Renta 29.50%
Plazo(años) 5
Año Periodo Saldo Amortización Intereses Cuota
2023 0 98,786.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
2024 1 81,778.62 17,007.48 7,408.96 24,416.44
2025 2 63,495.58 18,283.04 6,133.40 24,416.44
2026 3 43,841.31 19,654.27 4,762.17 24,416.44
2027 4 22,712.97 21,128.34 3,288.10 24,416.44
2028 5 0.00 22,712.97 1,703.47 24,416.44

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Prestamo 197,572.20
Amortización -34,271 -36,712 -39,327 -42,129
intereses -14,077 -11,636 -9,021 -6,219
EFI 4,152.72 3,432.66 2,661.18 1,834.59
FCF 197,572.20 -44,195.67 -44,915.73 -45,687.22 -46,513.81
Vertical/Horizontal
Vertical 2022 Promedio

63% 59%

37% 41%

100% 100%
Deuda /capital 1.47

BBVA
Importe 98,786.10
TASA (TEA) 6.75%
Impuesto Renta 4.00%
Plazo(años) 5
Escudo Fiscal Año Periodo Saldo Amortización Intereses Cuota
0.00 2023 0 98,786.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
2,185.64 2024 1 81,522.20 17,263.90 6,668.06 23,931.96
1,809.35 2025 2 63,092.99 18,429.21 5,502.75 23,931.96
1,404.84 2026 3 43,419.81 19,673.18 4,258.78 23,931.96
969.99 2027 4 22,418.70 21,001.12 2,930.84 23,931.96
502.52 2028 5 0.00 22,418.70 1,513.26 23,931.96

2028

-45,132
-3,217
948.94
-47,399.46
Escudo Fiscal
0.00
266.72
1,623.31
1,256.34
864.60
446.41
Valor nominal 1,000.00
Plazo en años 10
Tipo Bullet
TEA 6.69%
Riesgo AAA
Curva BBB
Spread 0.15%

Periodo Saldo Amortización Interes cuota YTM Spread TEA Valor presente
0 10,000 0 0
1 10,000 0 669 669 4.879% 0.45% 5.33% 635.15
2 10,000 0 669 669 4.898% 0.45% 5.35% 602.80
3 10,000 0 669 669 5.258% 0.45% 5.71% 566.37
4 10,000 0 669 669 5.644% 0.45% 6.09% 528.04
5 10,000 0 669 669 5.977% 0.45% 6.43% 489.97
6 10,000 0 669 669 6.246% 0.45% 6.70% 453.46
7 10,000 0 669 669 6.462% 0.45% 6.91% 419.03
8 10,000 0 669 669 6.634% 0.45% 7.08% 386.93
9 10,000 0 669 669 6.773% 0.45% 7.22% 357.14
10 10,000 10,000 669 10669 6.885% 0.45% 7.34% 6,056.10
Valor
10,494.97
Fecha de cotiza Apertura Cierre Máximo Mínimo Promedio Cantidad negoci
2/29/2024 4.35 4.45 4.45 4.3 4.40011907625 187107
2/28/2024 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.34994894989 44662
2/27/2024 4.23 4.35 4.35 4.23 4.3239413313 139052
2/26/2024 4.25 4.28 4.28 4.25 4.26106221160 129381
2/23/2024 4.2 4.25 4.25 4.2 4.24039721533 187455
2/22/2024 4.19 4.19 4.2 4.19 4.18963059806 39009
2/21/2024 4.17 4.16 4.2 4.16 4.17945252518 92607
2/20/2024 4.1 4.19 4.19 4.1 4.14811546740 794839
2/19/2024 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.09998343848 12680
2/16/2024 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.10096099384 94985
2/15/2024 4 4.05 4.05 4 4.03704745730 31207
2/14/2024 4.05 4 4.05 4 4.0216740208 18357
2/13/2024 4 4 4.05 4 4.02766235809 38141
2/12/2024 4.02 4.04 4.05 4.02 4.03802020273 56329
2/9/2024 4 4 4.01 3.95 3.99478538205 37625
2/8/2024 4 4 4.01 3.96 3.99725520234 46998
2/7/2024 3.99 4 4 3.95 3.98341684901 27420
2/6/2024 3.91 4 4.05 3.91 4.04849048856 1531840
2/5/2024 3.94 3.91 3.94 3.91 3.93008127395 15134
2/2/2024 3.98352870813 836
2/1/2024 3.92 3.95 3.95 3.92 3.94401220902 14907
1/31/2024 3.94993485342 3070
1/30/2024 3.97 3.95 3.97 3.95 3.96318496423 60682
1/29/2024 3.93 3.95 3.95 3.93 3.94045216331 24615
1/26/2024 3.85 3.93 3.93 3.85 3.92862415911 2053486
1/25/2024 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.84967603697 130910
1/24/2024 3.8 3.85 3.85 3.8 3.82562416410 110660
1/23/2024 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.79995210839 8561
1/22/2024 3.7811517925 2622
1/19/2024 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.79410010842 5534
1/18/2024 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78001240310 35475
1/17/2024 3.79 3.75 3.79 3.75 3.78733159460 24539
1/16/2024 3.78 3.79 3.79 3.78 3.78697930826 6621
1/15/2024 3.8 3.78 3.8 3.78 3.78923766816 13380
1/12/2024 3.74923809523 1470
1/11/2024 3.79137704918 305
1/10/2024 3.79961538461 1300
1/9/2024 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79 3.79000816030 11029
1/8/2024 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.79760857374 16049
1/5/2024 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.76861072520 3599
1/4/2024 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.76870003197 6254
1/3/2024 3.80000000000 1461
1/2/2024 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78433490884 2962
12/29/2023 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78088077685 30791
12/28/2023 3.78 3.78 3.8 3.75 3.78406413980 42688
12/27/2023 3.73 3.8 3.8 3.73 3.77484249426 44919
12/26/2023 3.72886731391 1236
12/22/2023 3.7 3.71 3.73 3.7 3.71617693634 42309
12/21/2023 3.65 3.7 3.71 3.65 3.69937135009 75002
12/20/2023 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.63054918186 5317
12/19/2023 3.65 3.65 3.67 3.65 3.65624522586 98709
12/18/2023 3.68461538461 299
12/15/2023 3.63 3.64 3.64 3.63 3.6366299829 12267
12/14/2023 3.59 3.59 3.6 3.55 3.58610257398 57071
12/13/2023 3.57524094667 3507
12/12/2023 3.57 3.58 3.58 3.57 3.57184081917 21485
12/11/2023 3.59 3.52 3.59 3.52 3.536559607 66972
12/7/2023 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.59 3.58508498991 6942
12/6/2023 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55091362763 5210
12/5/2023 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.53385263929 8184
12/4/2023 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.55 3.54179844738 6956
Monto negociado
Fecha anterior Cierre anterior corregido Fecha Adj Close
823293.08 2/28/2024 4.35 3/1/2024 4.35
194277.42 2/27/2024 4.35 2/1/2024 3.95
601252.69 2/26/2024 4.28 1/1/2024 3.78
551300.49 2/23/2024 4.25
794883.66 2/22/2024 4.19 Riesgo 0.04
163433.3 2/21/2024 4.16 Rendimiento 7.31%
387046.56 2/20/2024 4.19
3297083.95 2/19/2024 4.1
51987.79 2/16/2024 4.1
389529.78 2/15/2024 4.05
125984.14 2/14/2024 4
73825.87 2/13/2024 4
153619.07 2/12/2024 4.04
227457.64 2/9/2024 4
150303.8 2/8/2024 4
187863 2/7/2024 4
109225.29 2/6/2024 4
6201639.67 2/5/2024 3.91
59477.85 2/1/2024 3.95
3330.23 2/1/2024 3.95
58793.39 1/30/2024 3.95
12126.3 1/30/2024 3.95
240493.99 1/29/2024 3.95
96994.23 1/26/2024 3.93
8067374.71 1/25/2024 3.85
503961.09 1/24/2024 3.85
423343.57 1/23/2024 3.8
32531.39 1/19/2024 3.8
9914.18 1/19/2024 3.8
20996.55 1/18/2024 3.78
134095.94 1/17/2024 3.75
92937.33 1/16/2024 3.79
25073.59 1/15/2024 3.78
50700 1/9/2024 3.79
5511.38 1/9/2024 3.79
1156.37 1/9/2024 3.79
4939.5 1/9/2024 3.79
41800 1/8/2024 3.8
60947.82 1/5/2024 3.77
13563.23 1/4/2024 3.77
23569.45 1/2/2024 3.78
5551.8 1/2/2024 3.78
11209.2 12/29/2023 3.78
116417.1 12/28/2023 3.78
161534.13 12/27/2023 3.8
169562.15 12/22/2023 3.71
4608.88 12/22/2023 3.71
157227.73 12/21/2023 3.7
277460.25 12/20/2023 3.65
19303.63 12/19/2023 3.65
360904.31 12/15/2023 3.64
1101.7 12/15/2023 3.64
 44610.54 12/14/2023 3.59
204662.46 12/12/2023 3.58
12538.37 12/12/2023 3.58
76741 12/11/2023 3.52
236850.47 12/7/2023 3.59
24887.66 12/6/2023 3.55
18500.26 12/5/2023 3.52
28921.05 12/4/2023 3.55
24636.75 12/1/2023 3.55
Rendimientos
10.13%
4.50%
Sector:
Building Materials
Beta desapalancado 1.09
deuda y capital 1.47
participación deuda 59%
Participación del accionista 41%
beta 2.21
Rf 4.36%
Rm-Rf 6.71%
Rp 1.90%
Costo de oportunidad del accionista 21.09%
Participación en patrimonio 41%
Participación INTERBANK 30%
Participación BBVA 30%
TEA INTERBANK 8%
TEA BBVA 7%
Impuesto a la Renta (t) 30%
WACC 11.54%
 0 1 2 3 4 5
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Ingresos 2,249,888 2,339,884 2,433,479 2,530,818 2,632,051
Costo de Ventas -1,780,662 -1,851,888 -1,925,964 -2,003,002 -2,083,122
Utilidad Bruta 469,226 487,995 507,515 527,816 548,929
- Gastos de Ventas y Distribución -186,916 -194,392 -202,168 -210,255 -218,665
- Gastos de Administración -51,555 -53,617 -55,761 -57,992 -60,312
- Depreciación -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740
EBIT 220,016 229,246 238,846 248,829 259,212
- Impuesto a la Renta (29,5%) -64,905 -67,628 -70,460 -73,405 -76,468
+ Depreciación 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740
FEO 165,851 172,359 179,126 186,165 193,485
Inversión Activos - GNK -107,400
Capital Trabajo -224,989 -9,000 -9,360 -9,734 -10,123 -10,528
FCLD -332,389 156,852 162,999 169,392 176,041 182,956
Préstamo 197,572
- Amortización -34,271 -36,712 -39,327 -42,129 -45,132
- Intereses -14,077 -11,636 -9,021 -6,219 -3,217
+ Escudo Fiscal 4,153 3,433 2,661 1,835 949
FCF 197,572 -44,196 -44,916 -45,687 -46,514 -47,399
FCNI -134,817 112,656 118,083 123,705 129,528 135,557

VPN FCLD 826,040

VPN FCNI 498,283

Impuesto a la renta 29.50%

 6 7 8 9 10
2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
2,737,333 2,846,826 2,960,699 3,079,127 3,202,292
-2,166,447 -2,253,105 -2,343,229 -2,436,958 -2,534,437
570,886 593,721 617,470 642,169 667,856
-227,412 -236,508 -245,968 -255,807 -266,039
-62,724 -65,233 -67,842 -70,556 -73,378
-10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740
270,010 281,240 292,919 305,066 317,698
-79,653 -82,966 -86,411 -89,994 -93,721
10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740
201,097 209,014 217,248 225,811 234,717
7,572
-10,949 -11,387 -11,843 -12,317 320,229
190,148 197,627 205,405 213,495 562,518

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
190,148 197,627 205,405 213,495 562,518
 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Flujo optimista 69,015 179,299 186,332 193,646 201,252 209,163 217,390 225,946
Flujo esperado 62,741 162,999 169,392 176,041 182,956 190,148 197,627 205,405
Flujo pesimista 56,467 146,699 152,453 158,437 164,661 171,133 177,864 184,865

Prob. Var. Detalle

Optimista 25% 10% Incremento de la demanda de ladrillos
Esperado 40% Condiciones normales
Pesimista 35% -10% Disminución de la demanda de ladrillos
100%

ESPERADOS D.E.

1 62,113 1 4,819
2 161,369 2 12,520
3 167,699 3 13,011
4 174,281 4 13,522
5 181,127 5 14,053
6 188,246 6 14,606
7 195,651 7 15,180
8 203,351 8 15,777
9 211,360 9 59,918
10 556,893 10 43,208

INVERSION -332,389
WACC 11.54%
V.E.
730,927

FLUJOS PERFECTAMENTE CORRELACIONADOS

D.E. 98,783
Z 7.40
Rentabilidad 100.00%
 2032 2033
234,844 618,770
213,495 562,518
192,145 506,266

ladrillos
s
e ladrillos
 0 1 2 3 4 5
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Ingresos 1,349,933 1,403,930 1,460,087 1,518,491 1,579,230
Costo de Ventas -961,557 -1,000,020 -1,040,020 -1,081,621 -1,124,886
Utilidad Bruta 388,376 403,911 420,067 436,870 454,344
- Gastos de Ventas y Distribución -186,916 -194,392 -202,168 -210,255 -218,665
- Gastos de Administración -51,555 -53,617 -55,761 -57,992 -60,312
- Depreciación -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740
EBIT 139,165 145,162 151,398 157,883 164,628
- Impuesto a la Renta (29,5%) -41,054 -42,823 -44,662 -46,576 -48,565
+ Depreciación 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740
FEO 108,852 113,079 117,475 122,048 126,803
Inversión Activos - GNK -107,400
Capital Trabajo -224,989 -9,000 -9,360 -9,734 -10,123 -10,528
FCLD -332,389 99,852 103,719 107,741 111,924 116,275
Préstamo 197,572
- Amortización -35,224 -37,249 -39,391 -41,656 -44,051
- Intereses -11,360 -9,335 -7,194 -4,929 -2,533
+ Escudo Fiscal 3,351 2,754 2,122 1,454 747
FCF 197,572 -43,234 -43,831 -44,463 -45,131 -45,837
FCNI -134,817 56,618 59,888 63,279 66,793 70,437

a)Determinar los VPN del FCLD y FCNI. Analizar e interpretar los resultados.
FINANCIAMIENTO CON INTERBANK
Importe 98,786.10
TASA (TEA) 5.500%
Impuesto Renta 29.50%
Plazo(años) 5

Año Periodo Saldo Amortización Intereses Cuota Escudo Fiscal

2018 0 98,786.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2019 1 81,085.96 17,700.14 5,433.24 23,133.38 1,602.80
2020 2 62,412.31 18,673.65 4,459.73 23,133.38 1,315.62
2021 3 42,711.61 19,700.70 3,432.68 23,133.38 1,012.64
2022 4 21,927.37 20,784.24 2,349.14 23,133.38 693.00
2023 5 0.00 21,927.37 1,206.01 23,133.38 355.77

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Prestamo 197,572.20
- Amort -35,224 -37,249 -39,391 -41,656 -44,051
- Intereses -11,360 -9,335 -7,194 -4,929 -2,533
+ EFI 3,351.32 2,753.95 2,122.18 1,454.02 747.37
FCF 197,572.20 -43,233.52 -43,830.89 -44,462.66 -45,130.82 -45,837.47

FCLD 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Flujo optimista 109,837 114,091 118,516 123,117 127,902 132,879
Flujo esperado 99,852 103,719 107,741 111,924 116,275 120,799
Flujo pesimista 89,867 93,347 96,967 100,732 104,647 108,719
 Prob. Var. Detalle
Optimista 25% 10% Incremento de la demanda de ladrillos
Esperado 40% Condiciones normales
Pesimista 35% -10% Disminución de la demanda de ladrillos
100%
ESPERADOS D.E.
1 98,853 1 7,670
2 102,682 2 7,967
3 106,664 3 8,276
4 110,805 4 8,597
5 115,112 5 8,931
6 119,591 6 9,279
7 124,249 7 9,640
8 129,093 8 10,016
9 134,132 9 37,875
10 476,576 10 36,976

INVERSION -332,389
WACC 11.54%
ESPERADO DEL VPN 437,753

Desviación del VPN 70,031

Z 6.25
Prob. 100.00%
 6 7 8 9 10
2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
1,642,400 1,708,096 1,776,419 1,847,476 1,921,375
-1,169,881 -1,216,677 -1,265,344 -1,315,957 -1,368,596
472,518 491,419 511,076 531,519 552,780
-227,412 -236,508 -245,968 -255,807 -266,039
-62,724 -65,233 -67,842 -70,556 -73,378
-10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740 -10,740
171,643 178,938 186,525 194,416 202,622
-50,635 -52,787 -55,025 -57,353 -59,773
10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740 10,740
131,748 136,891 142,240 147,803 153,589
7,572
-10,949 -11,387 -11,843 -12,317 320,229
120,799 125,504 130,397 135,487 481,389

- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
120,799 125,504 130,397 135,487 481,389

FINANCIAMIENTO CON BANCO BBVA

Importe 98,786.10
TASA (TEA) 6.0000%
Impuesto Renta 29.50%
Plazo(años) 5

Año Periodo Saldo Amortización Intereses Cuota Escudo Fiscal

2018 0 98,786.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2019 1 81,261.80 17,524.30 5,927.17 23,451.46 1,748.51
2020 2 62,686.04 18,575.76 4,875.71 23,451.46 1,438.33
2021 3 42,995.74 19,690.30 3,761.16 23,451.46 1,109.54
2022 4 22,124.02 20,871.72 2,579.74 23,451.46 761.02
2023 5 0.00 22,124.02 1,327.44 23,451.46 391.60

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

2030 2031 2032 2033

138,054 143,437 149,035 529,528
125,504 130,397 135,487 481,389
112,954 117,358 121,938 433,250
 Detalle
mento de la demanda de ladrillos
Condiciones normales
nución de la demanda de ladrillos
Date updated: 5-Jan-22
Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Total Beta (beta for completely undiversified investor)
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each industry: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm

Industry Name Number of firms Average Unlevered Beta

Building Materials 44 1.09
tor) US companies

_Page/data.html
indname.xls
_Page/datafile/variable.htm

Average Levered Beta Average correlation with the market Total Unlevered Beta
1.19 54.38% 2.00
Total Levered Beta
2.18
 Rm-Rf

Date updated: 31-Dec-17

Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu
What is this data? Historical returns: Stocks, Bonds & T.Bills with premiums
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com
Data website: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html
Companies in each i https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions:https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Customized Geometric risk premium estimator
What is your riskfree rate? LT
Enter your starting year 1928

Value of stocks in starting year: $ 100.00

Value of T.Bills in starting year: $ 100.00
Value of T.bonds in starting year: $ 100.00
Estimate of risk premium based on your inputs: 5.13%

Annual Returns on Investments in

S&P 500
(includes Baa Corporate
Year dividends) 3-month T.Bill US T. Bond Bond Real Estate
1928 43.81% 3.08% 0.84% 3.22% 1.49%
1929 -8.30% 3.16% 4.20% 3.02% -2.06%
1930 -25.12% 4.55% 4.54% 0.54% -4.30%
1931 -43.84% 2.31% -2.56% -15.68% -8.15%
1932 -8.64% 1.07% 8.79% 23.59% -10.47%
1933 49.98% 0.96% 1.86% 12.97% -3.81%
1934 -1.19% 0.28% 7.96% 18.82% 2.91%
1935 46.74% 0.17% 4.47% 13.31% 9.77%
1936 31.94% 0.17% 5.02% 11.38% 3.22%
1937 -35.34% 0.28% 1.38% -4.42% 2.56%
1938 29.28% 0.07% 4.21% 9.24% -0.87%
1939 -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30%
1940 -10.67% 0.04% 5.40% 8.65% 3.31%
1941 -12.77% 0.13% -2.02% 5.01% -8.38%
1942 19.17% 0.34% 2.29% 5.18% 3.33%
1943 25.06% 0.38% 2.49% 8.04% 11.45%
1944 19.03% 0.38% 2.58% 6.57% 16.58%
1945 35.82% 0.38% 3.80% 6.80% 11.78%
1946 -8.43% 0.38% 3.13% 2.51% 24.10%
1947 5.20% 0.60% 0.92% 0.26% 21.26%
1948 5.70% 1.05% 1.95% 3.44% 2.06%
1949 18.30% 1.12% 4.66% 5.38% 0.09%
1950 30.81% 1.20% 0.43% 4.24% 3.64%
1951 23.68% 1.52% -0.30% -0.19% 6.05%
1952 18.15% 1.72% 2.27% 4.44% 4.41%
1953 -1.21% 1.89% 4.14% 1.62% 11.52%
1954 52.56% 0.94% 3.29% 6.16% 0.92%
1955 32.60% 1.73% -1.34% 2.04% 0.00%

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 Rm-Rf

1956 7.44% 2.63% -2.26% -2.35% 0.91%

1957 -10.46% 3.23% 6.80% -0.72% 2.72%
1958 43.72% 1.77% -2.10% 6.43% 0.66%
1959 12.06% 3.39% -2.65% 1.57% 0.11%
1960 0.34% 2.88% 11.64% 6.66% 0.77%
1961 26.64% 2.35% 2.06% 5.10% 0.98%
1962 -8.81% 2.77% 5.69% 6.50% 0.32%
1963 22.61% 3.16% 1.68% 5.46% 2.14%
1964 16.42% 3.55% 3.73% 5.16% 1.26%
1965 12.40% 3.95% 0.72% 3.19% 1.66%
1966 -9.97% 4.86% 2.91% -3.45% 1.22%
1967 23.80% 4.31% -1.58% 0.90% 2.32%
1968 10.81% 5.34% 3.27% 4.85% 4.13%
1969 -8.24% 6.67% -5.01% -2.03% 6.99%
1970 3.56% 6.39% 16.75% 5.65% 8.22%
1971 14.22% 4.33% 9.79% 14.00% 4.24%
1972 18.76% 4.07% 2.82% 11.41% 2.98%
1973 -14.31% 7.03% 3.66% 4.32% 3.42%
1974 -25.90% 7.83% 1.99% -4.38% 10.07%
1975 37.00% 5.78% 3.61% 11.05% 6.77%
1976 23.83% 4.97% 15.98% 19.75% 8.18%
1977 -6.98% 5.27% 1.29% 9.95% 14.65%
1978 6.51% 7.19% -0.78% 3.14% 15.72%
1979 18.52% 10.07% 0.67% -2.01% 13.74%
1980 31.74% 11.43% -2.99% -3.32% 7.40%
1981 -4.70% 14.03% 8.20% 8.46% 5.10%
1982 20.42% 10.61% 32.81% 29.05% 0.56%
1983 22.34% 8.61% 3.20% 16.19% 4.75%
1984 6.15% 9.52% 13.73% 15.62% 4.68%
1985 31.24% 7.48% 25.71% 23.86% 7.47%
1986 18.49% 5.98% 24.28% 21.49% 9.61%
1987 5.81% 5.78% -4.96% 2.29% 7.88%
1988 16.54% 6.67% 8.22% 15.12% 7.21%
1989 31.48% 8.11% 17.69% 15.79% 4.38%
1990 -3.06% 7.49% 6.24% 6.14% -0.69%
1991 30.23% 5.38% 15.00% 17.85% -0.16%
1992 7.49% 3.43% 9.36% 12.17% 0.82%
1993 9.97% 3.00% 14.21% 16.43% 2.16%
1994 1.33% 4.25% -8.04% -1.32% 2.51%
1995 37.20% 5.49% 23.48% 20.16% 1.80%
1996 22.68% 5.01% 1.43% 4.79% 2.42%
1997 33.10% 5.06% 9.94% 11.83% 4.02%
1998 28.34% 4.78% 14.92% 7.95% 6.45%
1999 20.89% 4.64% -8.25% 0.84% 7.68%
2000 -9.03% 5.82% 16.66% 9.33% 9.28%
2001 -11.85% 3.39% 5.57% 7.82% 6.67%
2002 -21.97% 1.60% 15.12% 12.18% 9.56%
2003 28.36% 1.01% 0.38% 13.53% 9.82%
2004 10.74% 1.37% 4.49% 9.89% 13.64%
2005 4.83% 3.15% 2.87% 4.92% 13.51%

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 Rm-Rf

2006 15.61% 4.73% 1.96% 7.05% 1.73%

2007 5.48% 4.35% 10.21% 3.15% -5.40%
2008 -36.55% 1.37% 20.10% -5.07% -12.00%
2009 25.94% 0.15% -11.12% 23.33% -3.85%
2010 14.82% 0.14% 8.46% 8.35% -4.12%
2011 2.10% 0.05% 16.04% 12.58% -3.88%
2012 15.89% 0.09% 2.97% 10.12% 6.44%
2013 32.15% 0.06% -9.10% -1.06% 10.72%
2014 13.52% 0.03% 10.75% 10.38% 4.51%
2015 1.38% 0.05% 1.28% -0.70% 5.21%
2016 11.77% 0.32% 0.69% 10.37% 5.31%
2017 21.61% 0.93% 2.80% 9.72% 6.21%
2018 -4.23% 1.94% -0.02% -2.76% 4.53%
2019 31.21% 1.55% 9.64% 15.33% 3.69%
2020 18.02% 0.09% 11.33% 10.41% 10.35%
2021 28.47% 0.06% -4.42% 0.93% 16.83%

Arithmetic Average Historical Return

1928-2021 11.82% 3.33% 5.11% 7.19% 4.36%
1972-2021 12.47% 4.42% 7.00% 9.29% 5.41%
2012-2021 16.98% 0.51% 2.59% 6.28% 7.38%

Geometric Average Historical Return

1928-2021 9.98% 3.28% 4.84% 6.93% 4.18%
1972-2021 11.06% 4.37% 6.60% 9.01% 5.25%
2012-2021 16.40% 0.51% 2.40% 6.10% 7.31%

Page 45
 Rm-Rf

US companies

able.htm

Estimates of risk premiums from 1928, over the last 50 years and over the last 10 years
are provided at the bottom of this table.

Value of $100 invested at start of 1928 in

S&P 500 (includes dividends)3

$ 143.81
$ 131.88
$ 98.75
$ 55.46
$ 50.66
$ 75.99
$ 75.09
$ 110.18
$ 145.38
$ 94.00
$ 121.53
$ 120.20
$ 107.37
$ 93.66
$ 111.61
$ 139.59
$ 166.15
$ 225.67
$ 206.65
$ 217.39
$ 229.79
$ 271.85
$ 355.60
$ 439.80
$ 519.62
$ 513.35
$ 783.18
$ 1,038.47

Page 46
 Rm-Rf

$ 1,115.73
$ 999.05
$ 1,435.84
$ 1,608.95
$ 1,614.37
$ 2,044.40
$ 1,864.26
$ 2,285.80
$ 2,661.02
$ 2,990.97
$ 2,692.74
$ 3,333.69
$ 3,694.23
$ 3,389.77
$ 3,510.49
$ 4,009.72
$ 4,761.76
$ 4,080.44
$ 3,023.54
$ 4,142.10
$ 5,129.20
$ 4,771.20
$ 5,081.77
$ 6,022.89
$ 7,934.26
$ 7,561.16
$ 9,105.08
$ 11,138.90
$ 11,823.51
$ 15,516.60
$ 18,386.33
$ 19,455.08
$ 22,672.40
$ 29,808.58
$ 28,895.11
$ 37,631.51
$ 40,451.51
$ 44,483.33
$ 45,073.14
$ 61,838.19
$ 75,863.69
$ 100,977.34
$ 129,592.25
$ 156,658.05
$ 142,508.98
$ 125,622.01
$ 98,027.82
$ 125,824.39
$ 139,341.42
$ 146,077.85

Page 47
 Rm-Rf

$ 168,884.34
$ 178,147.20
$ 113,030.22
$ 142,344.87
$ 163,441.94
$ 166,871.56
$ 193,388.43
$ 255,553.31
$ 290,115.42
$ 294,115.79
$ 328,742.28
$ 399,768.64
$ 382,870.94
$ 502,371.39
$ 592,914.80
$ 761,710.83

Page 48
 Rm-Rf

of 1928 in Annual Risk Premium

Baa Corporate
3-month T.Bill4 US T. Bond5 Bond6 Real Estate2 Stocks - Bills Stocks - Bonds
$ 103.08 $ 100.84 $ 103.22 $ 101.49 40.73% 42.98%
$ 106.34 $ 105.07 $ 106.33 $ 99.40 -11.46% -12.50%
$ 111.18 $ 109.85 $ 106.91 $ 95.13 -29.67% -29.66%
$ 113.74 $ 107.03 $ 90.14 $ 87.38 -46.15% -41.28%
$ 114.96 $ 116.44 $ 111.41 $ 78.23 -9.71% -17.43%
$ 116.06 $ 118.60 $ 125.86 $ 75.25 49.02% 48.13%
$ 116.39 $ 128.05 $ 149.54 $ 77.44 -1.47% -9.15%
$ 116.58 $ 133.78 $ 169.44 $ 85.00 46.57% 42.27%
$ 116.78 $ 140.49 $ 188.73 $ 87.73 31.77% 26.93%
$ 117.11 $ 142.43 $ 180.39 $ 89.98 -35.61% -36.72%
$ 117.18 $ 148.43 $ 197.05 $ 89.20 29.22% 25.07%
$ 117.24 $ 154.98 $ 212.78 $ 88.04 -1.14% -5.51%
$ 117.28 $ 163.35 $ 231.18 $ 90.95 -10.71% -16.08%
$ 117.43 $ 160.04 $ 242.76 $ 83.32 -12.90% -10.75%
$ 117.83 $ 163.72 $ 255.33 $ 86.10 18.83% 16.88%
$ 118.28 $ 167.79 $ 275.88 $ 95.95 24.68% 22.57%
$ 118.73 $ 172.12 $ 293.99 $ 111.87 18.65% 16.45%
$ 119.18 $ 178.67 $ 313.98 $ 125.04 35.44% 32.02%
$ 119.63 $ 184.26 $ 321.85 $ 155.18 -8.81% -11.56%
$ 120.35 $ 185.95 $ 322.70 $ 188.17 4.60% 4.28%
$ 121.61 $ 189.58 $ 333.79 $ 192.05 4.66% 3.75%
$ 122.96 $ 198.42 $ 351.74 $ 192.22 17.19% 13.64%
$ 124.44 $ 199.27 $ 366.65 $ 199.22 29.60% 30.38%
$ 126.33 $ 198.68 $ 365.95 $ 211.26 22.16% 23.97%
$ 128.51 $ 203.19 $ 382.20 $ 220.57 16.43% 15.88%
$ 130.94 $ 211.61 $ 388.39 $ 245.98 -3.10% -5.35%
$ 132.17 $ 218.57 $ 412.31 $ 248.25 51.62% 49.27%
$ 134.45 $ 215.65 $ 420.74 $ 248.25 30.87% 33.93%

Page 49
 Rm-Rf

$ 137.98 $ 210.79 $ 410.84 $ 250.52 4.81% 9.70%

$ 142.43 $ 225.11 $ 407.89 $ 257.33 -13.68% -17.25%
$ 144.95 $ 220.39 $ 434.11 $ 259.03 41.95% 45.82%
$ 149.86 $ 214.56 $ 440.95 $ 259.31 8.67% 14.70%
$ 154.18 $ 239.53 $ 470.33 $ 261.30 -2.55% -11.30%
$ 157.81 $ 244.46 $ 494.32 $ 263.85 24.28% 24.58%
$ 162.19 $ 258.38 $ 526.43 $ 264.70 -11.58% -14.51%
$ 167.31 $ 262.74 $ 555.19 $ 270.38 19.45% 20.93%
$ 173.25 $ 272.53 $ 583.85 $ 273.78 12.87% 12.69%
$ 180.09 $ 274.49 $ 602.47 $ 278.32 8.45% 11.68%
$ 188.84 $ 282.47 $ 581.72 $ 281.72 -14.83% -12.88%
$ 196.98 $ 278.01 $ 586.92 $ 288.25 19.50% 25.38%
$ 207.49 $ 287.11 $ 615.36 $ 300.17 5.48% 7.54%
$ 221.32 $ 272.71 $ 602.90 $ 321.16 -14.91% -3.23%
$ 235.47 $ 318.41 $ 636.96 $ 347.55 -2.83% -13.19%
$ 245.67 $ 349.57 $ 726.14 $ 362.30 9.89% 4.43%
$ 255.68 $ 359.42 $ 808.99 $ 373.08 14.68% 15.94%
$ 273.66 $ 372.57 $ 843.92 $ 385.85 -21.34% -17.97%
$ 295.08 $ 379.98 $ 806.95 $ 424.72 -33.73% -27.89%
$ 312.12 $ 393.68 $ 896.12 $ 453.48 31.22% 33.39%
$ 327.65 $ 456.61 $ 1,073.13 $ 490.57 18.86% 7.85%
$ 344.91 $ 462.50 $ 1,179.96 $ 562.46 -12.25% -8.27%
$ 369.71 $ 458.90 $ 1,216.98 $ 650.90 -0.68% 7.29%
$ 406.93 $ 461.98 $ 1,192.53 $ 740.35 8.45% 17.85%
$ 453.46 $ 448.17 $ 1,152.99 $ 795.11 20.30% 34.72%
$ 517.06 $ 484.91 $ 1,250.56 $ 835.62 -18.73% -12.90%
$ 571.94 $ 644.04 $ 1,613.88 $ 840.33 9.80% -12.40%
$ 621.19 $ 664.65 $ 1,875.23 $ 880.25 13.73% 19.14%
$ 680.35 $ 755.92 $ 2,168.13 $ 921.43 -3.38% -7.59%
$ 731.23 $ 950.29 $ 2,685.50 $ 990.27 23.76% 5.52%
$ 774.95 $ 1,181.06 $ 3,262.50 $ 1,085.46 12.52% -5.79%
$ 819.70 $ 1,122.47 $ 3,337.20 $ 1,170.95 0.04% 10.77%
$ 874.35 $ 1,214.78 $ 3,841.62 $ 1,255.38 9.87% 8.31%
$ 945.28 $ 1,429.72 $ 4,448.20 $ 1,310.38 23.36% 13.78%
$ 1,016.11 $ 1,518.87 $ 4,721.33 $ 1,301.32 -10.56% -9.30%
$ 1,070.73 $ 1,746.77 $ 5,564.25 $ 1,299.27 24.86% 15.23%
$ 1,107.47 $ 1,910.30 $ 6,241.54 $ 1,309.89 4.06% -1.87%
$ 1,140.67 $ 2,181.77 $ 7,267.12 $ 1,338.15 6.97% -4.24%
$ 1,189.11 $ 2,006.43 $ 7,171.25 $ 1,371.72 -2.92% 9.36%
$ 1,254.39 $ 2,477.55 $ 8,616.71 $ 1,396.39 31.71% 13.71%
$ 1,317.18 $ 2,512.94 $ 9,029.67 $ 1,430.13 17.68% 21.25%
$ 1,383.84 $ 2,762.71 $ 10,098.32 $ 1,487.69 28.04% 23.16%
$ 1,449.94 $ 3,174.95 $ 10,900.68 $ 1,583.61 23.56% 13.42%
$ 1,517.20 $ 2,912.88 $ 10,992.59 $ 1,705.23 16.25% 29.14%
$ 1,605.45 $ 3,398.03 $ 12,018.16 $ 1,863.51 -14.85% -25.69%
$ 1,659.84 $ 3,587.37 $ 12,957.88 $ 1,987.87 -15.24% -17.42%
$ 1,686.44 $ 4,129.65 $ 14,535.88 $ 2,178.00 -23.57% -37.08%
$ 1,703.49 $ 4,145.15 $ 16,502.87 $ 2,391.78 27.34% 27.98%
$ 1,726.86 $ 4,331.30 $ 18,134.78 $ 2,717.92 9.37% 6.25%
$ 1,781.19 $ 4,455.50 $ 19,026.57 $ 3,085.18 1.69% 1.97%

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$ 1,865.39 $ 4,542.87 $ 20,367.63 $ 3,138.62 10.89% 13.65%

$ 1,946.59 $ 5,006.69 $ 21,009.29 $ 2,969.21 1.13% -4.73%
$ 1,973.16 $ 6,013.10 $ 19,945.02 $ 2,612.92 -37.92% -56.65%
$ 1,976.12 $ 5,344.65 $ 24,598.10 $ 2,512.37 25.79% 37.05%
$ 1,978.82 $ 5,796.96 $ 26,651.51 $ 2,408.91 14.68% 6.36%
$ 1,979.86 $ 6,726.52 $ 30,005.47 $ 2,315.38 2.05% -13.94%
$ 1,981.56 $ 6,926.40 $ 33,043.43 $ 2,464.41 15.80% 12.92%
$ 1,982.72 $ 6,295.79 $ 32,694.52 $ 2,728.54 32.09% 41.25%
$ 1,983.36 $ 6,972.34 $ 36,089.82 $ 2,851.70 13.49% 2.78%
$ 1,984.40 $ 7,061.89 $ 35,838.08 $ 3,000.22 1.33% 0.09%
$ 1,990.70 $ 7,110.65 $ 39,552.74 $ 3,159.52 11.46% 11.08%
$ 2,009.23 $ 7,309.87 $ 43,398.81 $ 3,355.82 20.67% 18.80%
$ 2,048.20 $ 7,308.65 $ 42,199.86 $ 3,507.93 -6.17% -4.21%
$ 2,079.94 $ 8,012.89 $ 48,668.87 $ 3,637.43 29.66% 21.58%
$ 2,081.82 $ 8,920.90 $ 53,736.05 $ 4,013.76 17.93% 6.69%
$ 2,083.06 $ 8,526.95 $ 54,237.64 $ 4,689.35 28.41% 32.88%
Risk Premium Standard Error
Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
8.49% 6.71% 2.05% 2.17%
8.04% 5.47% 2.44% 2.76%
16.47% 14.39% 3.88% 4.59%
Risk Premium
Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds
6.69% 5.13%
6.70% 4.47%
15.89% 14.00%

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nnual Risk Premium Annual Real Returns on

S&P 500
Stocks - Baa Historical risk (includes 3-month T. !0-year Baa Corp
Corp Bond premium Inflation Rate dividends)2 Bill (Real) T.Bonds Bonds Real Estate3
40.59% -1.16% 45.49% 4.29% 2.01% 4.43% 2.68%
-11.32% 0.58% -8.83% 2.56% 3.60% 2.42% -2.63%
-25.66% -6.40% -20.01% 11.69% 11.68% 7.41% 2.24%
-28.16% -9.32% -38.07% 12.82% 7.45% -7.02% 1.29%
-32.23% -10.27% 1.82% 12.64% 21.25% 37.74% -0.21%
37.02% 0.76% 48.85% 0.20% 1.08% 12.11% -4.54%
-20.00% 1.52% -2.66% -1.22% 6.35% 17.04% 1.37%
33.43% 2.99% 42.49% -2.74% 1.44% 10.02% 6.58%
20.56% 1.45% 30.06% -1.26% 3.52% 9.79% 1.74%
-30.92% 2.86% -37.13% -2.51% -1.44% -7.07% -0.29%
20.05% -2.78% 32.98% 2.92% 7.19% 12.36% 1.96%
-9.08% 0.00% -1.10% 0.05% 4.41% 7.98% -1.30%
-19.32% 0.71% -11.31% -0.67% 4.65% 7.88% 2.57%
-17.78% 9.93% -20.65% -8.91% -10.87% -4.48% -16.66%
13.99% 9.03% 9.30% -7.97% -6.18% -3.53% -5.23%
17.02% 2.96% 21.47% -2.50% -0.46% 4.94% 8.24%
12.46% 2.30% 16.36% -1.88% 0.27% 4.17% 13.96%
29.02% 2.25% 32.84% -1.83% 1.52% 4.45% 9.32%
-10.94% 18.13% -22.48% -15.03% -12.70% -13.23% 5.05%
4.94% 8.84% -3.34% -7.57% -7.27% -7.88% 11.42%
2.27% 2.99% 2.63% -1.89% -1.01% 0.43% -0.91%
12.93% -2.07% 20.81% 3.26% 6.88% 7.61% 2.21%
26.57% 5.93% 23.48% -4.46% -5.19% -1.60% -2.16%
23.87% 6.00% 16.68% -4.23% -5.94% -5.84% 0.04%
13.71% 0.75% 17.27% 0.96% 1.50% 3.66% 3.62%
-2.83% 0.75% -1.94% 1.13% 3.37% 0.86% 10.69%
46.41% -0.74% 53.71% 1.69% 4.06% 6.95% 1.68%
30.55% 0.37% 32.10% 1.35% -1.70% 1.66% -0.37%

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9.79% 2.99% 4.33% -0.35% -5.09% -5.18% -2.01%

-9.74% 2.90% -12.98% 0.32% 3.79% -3.52% -0.18%
37.29% 1.76% 41.23% 0.01% -3.79% 4.59% -1.08%
10.48% 1.73% 10.15% 1.63% -4.30% -0.15% -1.59%
-6.33% 6.11% 1.36% -1.01% 1.50% 10.14% 5.23% -0.59%
21.54% 6.62% 0.67% 25.79% 1.67% 1.38% 4.40% 0.30%
-15.31% 5.97% 1.33% -10.01% 1.42% 4.30% 5.09% -1.00%
17.15% 6.36% 1.64% 20.63% 1.49% 0.04% 3.76% 0.49%
11.25% 6.53% 0.97% 15.30% 2.55% 2.73% 4.15% 0.29%
9.21% 6.66% 1.92% 10.28% 1.99% -1.18% 1.24% -0.26%
-6.53% 6.11% 3.46% -12.98% 1.36% -0.53% -6.67% -2.16%
22.91% 6.57% 3.04% 20.15% 1.23% -4.48% -2.08% -0.70%
5.97% 6.60% 4.72% 5.82% 0.59% -1.38% 0.12% -0.56%
-6.22% 6.33% 6.20% -13.60% 0.44% -10.56% -7.74% 0.75%
-2.09% 5.90% 5.57% -1.90% 0.78% 10.59% 0.08% 2.51%
0.22% 5.87% 3.27% 10.61% 1.03% 6.31% 10.40% 0.95%
7.35% 6.08% 3.41% 14.84% 0.64% -0.57% 7.74% -0.42%
-18.63% 5.50% 8.71% -21.17% -1.54% -4.64% -4.04% -4.86%
-21.52% 4.64% 12.34% -34.04% -4.01% -9.21% -14.88% -2.02%
25.95% 5.17% 6.94% 28.11% -1.09% -3.12% 3.85% -0.15%
4.08% 5.22% 4.86% 18.09% 0.10% 10.60% 14.20% 3.16%
-16.93% 4.93% 6.70% -12.82% -1.34% -5.07% 3.05% 7.45%
3.37% 4.97% 9.02% -2.30% -1.68% -8.99% -5.39% 6.15%
20.53% 5.21% 13.29% 4.61% -2.85% -11.14% -13.51% 0.40%
35.05% 5.73% 12.52% 17.08% -0.96% -13.78% -14.07% -4.55%
-13.16% 5.37% 8.92% -12.51% 4.68% -0.66% -0.42% -3.51%
-8.63% 5.10% 3.83% 15.98% 6.53% 27.92% 24.29% -3.15%
6.14% 5.34% 3.79% 17.87% 4.64% -0.57% 11.95% 0.92%
-9.47% 5.12% 3.95% 2.11% 5.36% 9.41% 11.23% 0.70%
7.37% 5.13% 3.80% 26.43% 3.55% 21.11% 19.33% 3.54%
-2.99% 4.97% 1.10% 17.21% 4.83% 22.93% 20.17% 8.42%
3.52% 5.07% 4.43% 1.32% 1.28% -9.00% -2.05% 3.30%
1.42% 5.12% 4.42% 11.60% 2.15% 3.64% 10.24% 2.67%
15.69% 5.24% 4.65% 25.64% 3.31% 12.47% 10.65% -0.25%
-9.20% 5.00% 6.11% -8.64% 1.31% 0.12% 0.03% -6.41%
12.38% 5.14% 3.06% 26.36% 2.24% 11.59% 14.35% -3.13%
-4.68% 5.03% 2.90% 4.46% 0.52% 6.28% 9.01% -2.02%
-6.46% 4.90% 2.75% 7.03% 0.24% 11.16% 13.32% -0.57%
2.65% 4.97% 2.67% -1.31% 1.53% -10.43% -3.89% -0.16%
17.04% 5.08% 2.54% 33.80% 2.88% 20.42% 17.18% -0.72%
17.89% 5.30% 3.32% 18.74% 1.63% -1.83% 1.42% -0.88%
21.27% 5.53% 1.70% 30.88% 3.30% 8.10% 9.96% 2.28%
20.39% 5.63% 1.61% 26.30% 3.11% 13.10% 6.23% 4.76%
20.04% 5.96% 2.68% 17.72% 1.90% -10.65% -1.79% 4.86%
-18.36% 5.51% 3.39% -12.01% 2.35% 12.83% 5.75% 5.70%
-19.67% 5.17% 1.55% -13.20% 1.81% 3.96% 6.17% 5.04%
-34.14% 4.53% 2.38% -23.78% -0.76% 12.44% 9.57% 7.02%
14.82% 4.82% 1.88% 25.99% -0.85% -1.48% 11.44% 7.79%
0.85% 4.84% 3.26% 7.25% -1.82% 1.20% 6.42% 10.05%
-0.08% 4.80% 3.42% 1.37% -0.26% -0.53% 1.45% 9.76%

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8.56% 4.91% 2.54% 12.75% 2.13% -0.57% 4.40% -0.79%

2.33% 4.79% 4.08% 1.35% 0.26% 5.89% -0.89% -9.11%
-31.49% 3.88% 0.09% -36.61% 1.27% 19.99% -5.15% -12.08%
2.61% 4.29% 2.72% 22.60% -2.50% -13.47% 20.06% -6.40%
6.47% 4.31% 1.50% 13.13% -1.34% 6.86% 6.75% -5.53%
-10.49% 4.10% 2.96% -0.84% -2.83% 12.70% 9.35% -6.65%
5.77% 4.20% 1.74% 13.91% -1.63% 1.21% 8.24% 4.61%
33.20% 4.62% 1.50% 30.19% -1.42% -10.45% -2.52% 9.08%
3.14% 4.60% 0.76% 12.67% -0.72% 9.91% 9.56% 3.73%
2.08% 4.54% 0.73% 0.64% -0.67% 0.55% -1.42% 4.45%
1.41% 4.62% 2.07% 9.50% -1.72% -1.36% 8.12% 3.17%
11.88% 4.77% 2.11% 19.09% -1.15% 0.68% 7.46% 4.02%
-1.46% 4.66% 1.91% -6.02% 0.03% -1.89% -4.59% 2.57%
15.88% 4.83% 2.29% 28.28% -0.72% 7.19% 12.75% 1.38%
7.61% 4.84% 1.36% 16.44% -1.25% 9.84% 8.93% 8.86%
27.54% 5.13% 7.00% 20.06% -6.49% -10.67% -5.67% 9.19%

Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return

1928-2021 8.48% 0.35% 2.28% 4.27% 1.27%
1972-2021 8.13% 0.63% 3.42% 5.61% 1.27%
2012-2021 12.39% -1.21% 2.84% 5.59% 3.52%

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