Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre

0 1 2 3 4 5
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.1,200,000 + Ventas S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00
CAPEX anuales S/.100,000 - Costo de ventas S/ 1,800,000.00 S/ 1,800,000.00 S/ 1,800,000.00 S/ 1,800,000.00 S/ 1,800,000.00
Depreciacion 7.00 años = Margen Bruto S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,200,000.00
Impuesto 29.50% Comisiones S/ 90,000.00 S/ 90,000.00 S/ 90,000.00 S/ 90,000.00 S/ 90,000.00
Gastos comerciales S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00
Ventas esperadas S/.3,000,000 Gastos administativo S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
Comision de venta 3.00% Gastos de taller S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00
Gastos comerciales S/.80,000 = EBITDA S/ 730,000.00 S/ 730,000.00 S/ 730,000.00 S/ 730,000.00 S/ 730,000.00
- Depreciacion S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71 S/ 228,571.43
Costo de ventas 60% = EBIT S/ 558,571.43 S/ 544,285.71 S/ 530,000.00 S/ 515,714.29 S/ 501,428.57
gastos taller S/.300,000 - Impuestos S/ 164,778.57 S/ 160,564.29 S/ 156,350.00 S/ 152,135.71 S/ 147,921.43
Gastos administrativos 0 + Depreciación S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71 S/ 228,571.43
= NOPAT S/ 565,221.43 S/ 569,435.71 S/ 573,650.00 S/ 577,864.29 S/ 582,078.57
PPC 90 dias - CAPEX S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00
PPI 60 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 900,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - Valor de salvamento
PPP 30 dias + Valor de recupero S/ 418,000.00
+ Recupero del cap de trabajo S/.720,000
Precio de venta S/.300,000 = Flujo de caja libre -S/.2,100,000 S/.465,221 S/.469,436 S/.473,650 S/.477,864 S/.1,620,079
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable VAN S/.322,674 VAN > 0 Si firmamos esto, la empresa sube de valor 322,674 VALOR
recupero de capital de traba 80.00% TIR 15.81% TIR > WACC te rinde mas de lo que cuesta RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
IR 1.15 IR >= 1 Cada sol invertido tiene un valor actual de 1.15 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD
CCPP (WACC) 11.00%
tasa del Banco 8.00% Activo FIJo S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,300,000.00 S/ 1,400,000.00 S/ 1,500,000.00 S/ 1,600,000.00 S/ 1,700,000.00
Depreciación S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71 S/ 228,571.43
Activo Fijo Neto S/.1,200,000 S/.1,128,571 S/.1,042,857 S/.942,857 S/.828,571 S/.700,000

VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 418,000.00 + Cuentas por cobrar S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ - CxC=ventasxPPC/360
1. Venta del activo S/.300,000 Valor comercial + Inventarios S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ - Inventarios=costo de ventas xPPI/360
- Cuentas por pagar S/ 150,000.00 S/ 150,000.00 S/ 150,000.00 S/ 150,000.00 S/ 150,000.00 S/ - CxP= costo de ventas x PPP/360
= Capital de trabajo S/ 900,000.00 S/ 900,000.00 S/ 900,000.00 S/ 900,000.00 S/ 900,000.00 S/ -
2. Efecto impositivo Inversiones en capital de t S/ 900,000.00 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0
Ingreso por taller S/ 300,000.00 Valor comercial
Costo de ventas S/ 700,000.00 Valor contable VAN TIR IR
UTILIDAD -S/ 400,000.00 S/.322,674 15.81% 1.15 COMISIÓN
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 118,000.00 S/.1,500,000 0.46 S/.322,674 3% 5%
S/.2,599,910 1.00 S/ 3,000,000.00
S/.3,000,000 1.15 S/ 4,000,000.00
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.3,500,000 1.32 Gestión en función del valor
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia S/.4,000,000 1.47
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo

0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA S/.730,000
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar S/.58,400
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo S/.730,000
 Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.2,100,000 S/.465,221 S/.469,436 S/.473,650 S/.477,864 S/.1,620,079

+ Desembolsos S/.730,000
- intereses S/.58,400 S/.48,445 S/.37,694 S/.26,083 S/.13,543
- amortizaciones S/.124,433 S/.134,388 S/.145,139 S/.156,750 S/.169,290
+ escudo tributario de los intereses S/.17,228 S/.14,291 S/.11,120 S/.7,695 S/.3,995
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.1,370,000 S/.299,616 S/.300,894 S/.301,937 S/.302,726 S/.1,441,241

TIR 19.71%

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 S/.730,000
1 S/.605,567 S/.58,400 S/.124,433 S/.182,833
2 S/.471,179 S/.48,445 S/.134,388 S/.182,833
3 S/.326,040 S/.37,694 S/.145,139 S/.182,833
4 S/.169,290 S/.26,083 S/.156,750 S/.182,833
5 S/.0 S/.13,543 S/.169,290 S/.182,833
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,100,000.00 S/ 1,210,000.00 S/ 1,331,000.00 S/ 1,464,100.00 S/ 1,610,510.00 S/ 1,771,561.00
CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales S/ 350,000.00 S/ 385,000.00 S/ 423,500.00 S/ 465,850.00 S/ 512,435.00 S/ 563,678.50 S/ 620,046.35
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto S/ 425,000.00 S/ 467,500.00 S/ 514,250.00 S/ 565,675.00 S/ 622,242.50 S/ 684,466.75 S/ 752,913.43
Comisiones S/ 80,000.00 S/ 88,000.00 S/ 96,800.00 S/ 106,480.00 S/ 117,128.00 S/ 128,840.80 S/ 141,724.88
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 Gastos administativo S/ 120,000.00 S/ 132,000.00 S/ 145,200.00 S/ 159,720.00 S/ 175,692.00 S/ 193,261.20 S/ 212,587.32
Comision de venta 8.00% = EBITDA S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Gastos comerciales - Depreciacion S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
= EBIT S/ 150,000.00 S/ 172,500.00 S/ 197,250.00 S/ 224,475.00 S/ 254,422.50 S/ 287,364.75 S/ 323,601.23
Costos directos materiales 35% - Impuestos S/ 44,250.00 S/ 50,887.50 S/ 58,188.75 S/ 66,220.13 S/ 75,054.64 S/ 84,772.60 S/ 95,462.36
Costos mano de obra 22.5% + Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 = NOPAT S/ 180,750.00 S/ 196,612.50 S/ 214,061.25 S/ 233,254.88 S/ 254,367.86 S/ 277,592.15 S/ 303,138.86
- CAPEX S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPC 65 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 276,388.89 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPI 90 dias + Valor de recupero S/.168,600
PPP 30 dias + Recupero del cap de trabajo S/ 367,229.83
= Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.180,750 S/.196,613 S/.214,061 S/.233,255 S/.254,368 S/.277,592 S/.838,969
Precio de venta S/.145,000 INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) VAN S/.309,659 VAN > 0 VALOR
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable TIR 17.89% TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% IR 1.30 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD

CCPP (WACC) 11.00% Activo Fijo S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00
tasa del Banco 8.00% Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Activo Fijo Neto S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000 S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000

+ Cuentas por cobrar S/ 180,555.56 S/ 198,611.11 S/ 218,472.22 S/ 240,319.44 S/ 264,351.39 S/ 290,786.53 S/ 319,865.18 -
VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00 + Inventarios S/ 143,750.00 S/ 158,125.00 S/ 173,937.50 S/ 191,331.25 S/ 210,464.38 S/ 231,510.81 S/ 254,661.89 -
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial - Cuentas por pagar S/ 47,916.67 S/ 52,708.33 S/ 57,979.17 S/ 63,777.08 S/ 70,154.79 S/ 77,170.27 S/ 84,887.30 -
= Capital de trabajo S/ 276,388.89 S/ 304,027.78 S/ 334,430.56 S/ 367,873.61 S/ 404,660.97 S/ 445,127.07 S/ 489,639.78 -
Inversiones en capital de t S/ 276,388.89 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 0 0
2. Efecto impositivo
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial VAN TIR IR
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable S/.309,659 17.89% 1.30 COMISIÓN
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 S/.1,500,000 1.86 S/.309,659 3% 5%
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 S/.2,599,910 2.73 S/ 3,000,000.00
S/.3,000,000 2.96 S/ 4,000,000.00
S/.3,500,000 3.21 Gestión en función del valor
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.4,000,000 3.42
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo
0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA S/.225,000
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar S/.18,000
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo S/.225,000

Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.180,750 S/.196,613 S/.214,061 S/.233,255 S/.254,368
+ Desembolsos S/.225,000
- intereses S/.18,000 S/.14,932 S/.11,618 S/.8,039 S/.4,174
- amortizaciones S/.38,353 S/.41,421 S/.44,735 S/.48,313 S/.52,178
+ escudo tributario de los intereses S/.5,310 S/.4,405 S/.3,427 S/.2,372 S/.1,231
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.801,389 S/.129,707 S/.144,665 S/.161,136 S/.179,274 S/.199,247

TIR 0.49%

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 S/.225,000
1 S/.186,647 S/.18,000 S/.38,353 S/.56,353
2 S/.145,226 S/.14,932 S/.41,421 S/.56,353
3 S/.100,492 S/.11,618 S/.44,735 S/.56,353
4 S/.52,178 S/.8,039 S/.48,313 S/.56,353
5 S/.0 S/.4,174 S/.52,178 S/.56,353
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,100,000.00 S/ 1,210,000.00 S/ 1,331,000.00 S/ 1,464,100.00 S/ 1,610,510.00 S/ 1,771,561.00
CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales S/ 350,000.00 S/ 385,000.00 S/ 423,500.00 S/ 465,850.00 S/ 512,435.00 S/ 563,678.50 S/ 620,046.35
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto S/ 425,000.00 S/ 467,500.00 S/ 514,250.00 S/ 565,675.00 S/ 622,242.50 S/ 684,466.75 S/ 752,913.43
Comisiones S/ 80,000.00 S/ 88,000.00 S/ 96,800.00 S/ 106,480.00 S/ 117,128.00 S/ 128,840.80 S/ 141,724.88
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 Gasto financiero S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
Comision de venta 8.00% Gastos administativo S/ 120,000.00 S/ 132,000.00 S/ 145,200.00 S/ 159,720.00 S/ 175,692.00 S/ 193,261.20 S/ 212,587.32
Deuda S/.450,000 -S/.86,433 = EBITDA S/ 138,567.42 S/ 161,067.42 S/ 185,817.42 S/ 213,042.42 S/ 242,989.92 S/ 275,932.17 S/ 312,168.64
- Depreciacion S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Costos directos materiales 35% = EBIT S/ 63,567.42 S/ 86,067.42 S/ 110,817.42 S/ 138,042.42 S/ 167,989.92 S/ 200,932.17 S/ 237,168.64
Costos mano de obra 22.5% - Impuestos S/ 18,752.39 S/ 25,389.89 S/ 32,691.14 S/ 40,722.51 S/ 49,557.03 S/ 59,274.99 S/ 69,964.75
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 + Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
= NOPAT S/ 119,815.03 S/ 135,677.53 S/ 153,126.28 S/ 172,319.91 S/ 193,432.89 S/ 216,657.18 S/ 242,203.89
PPC 65 dias - CAPEX S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPI 90 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 276,388.89 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPP 30 dias + Valor de recupero S/.168,600
+ Recupero del cap de trabajo S/ 367,229.83
Precio de venta S/.145,000 = Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.119,815 S/.135,678 S/.153,126 S/.172,320 S/.193,433 S/.216,657 S/.778,034
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable VAN S/.22,522 VAN > 0 VALOR
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% TIR 11.51% TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
IR 1.02 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD
CCPP (WACC) 11.00%
tasa del Banco 8.00% Activo Fijo S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00
Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Activo Fijo Neto S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000 S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000

VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00 + Cuentas por cobrar S/ 180,555.56 S/ 198,611.11 S/ 218,472.22 S/ 240,319.44 S/ 264,351.39 S/ 290,786.53 S/ 319,865.18 -
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial + Inventarios S/ 143,750.00 S/ 158,125.00 S/ 173,937.50 S/ 191,331.25 S/ 210,464.38 S/ 231,510.81 S/ 254,661.89 -
- Cuentas por pagar S/ 47,916.67 S/ 52,708.33 S/ 57,979.17 S/ 63,777.08 S/ 70,154.79 S/ 77,170.27 S/ 84,887.30 -
= Capital de trabajo S/ 276,388.89 S/ 304,027.78 S/ 334,430.56 S/ 367,873.61 S/ 404,660.97 S/ 445,127.07 S/ 489,639.78 -
2. Efecto impositivo Inversiones en capital de t S/ 276,388.89 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 0 0
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable VAN TIR IR
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 S/.22,522 11.51% 1.02 COMISIÓN
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 S/.500,000 0.24 S/.22,522 3% 5%
S/.800,000 0.74 S/ 3,000,000.00
S/.894,398 0.88 S/ 4,000,000.00
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.1,000,000 1.02 Gestión en función del valor
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia S/.1,500,000 1.62
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo

0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA S/.138,567
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar S/.11,085
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo S/.138,567
 Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.119,815 S/.135,678 S/.153,126 S/.172,320 S/.193,433 S/.216,657 S/.778,034
+ Desembolsos S/.138,567
- intereses S/.11,085 S/.9,843 S/.8,501 S/.7,052 S/.5,487 S/.3,797 S/.1,971
- amortizaciones S/.15,530 S/.16,772 S/.18,114 S/.19,563 S/.21,128 S/.22,818 S/.24,643
+ escudo tributario de los intereses S/.3,270 S/.2,904 S/.2,508 S/.2,080 S/.1,619 S/.1,120 S/.582
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.887,821 S/.96,470 S/.111,966 S/.129,019 S/.147,785 S/.168,437 S/.191,162 S/.752,000

TIR 12.15%

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 S/.138,567
1 S/.123,038 S/.11,085 S/.15,530 S/.26,615
2 S/.106,266 S/.9,843 S/.16,772 S/.26,615
3 S/.88,152 S/.8,501 S/.18,114 S/.26,615
4 S/.68,589 S/.7,052 S/.19,563 S/.26,615
5 S/.47,462 S/.5,487 S/.21,128 S/.26,615
6 S/.24,643 S/.3,797 S/.22,818 S/.26,615
7 S/.0 S/.1,971 S/.24,643 S/.26,615
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,100,000.00 S/ 1,210,000.00 S/ 1,331,000.00 S/ 1,464,100.00 S/ 1,610,510.00 S/ 1,771,561.00
CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales S/ 1,080,000.00 S/ 1,254,000.00 S/ 1,161,600.00 S/ 1,397,550.00 S/ 1,449,459.00 S/ 1,835,981.40 S/ 566,899.52
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto -S/ 305,000.00 -S/ 401,500.00 -S/ 223,850.00 -S/ 366,025.00 -S/ 314,781.50 -S/ 587,836.15 S/ 806,060.26
Comisiones S/ 80,000.00 S/ 88,000.00 S/ 96,800.00 S/ 106,480.00 S/ 117,128.00 S/ 128,840.80 S/ 141,724.88
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 Gasto financiero S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
Comision de venta 8.00% Gastos administativo S/ 120,000.00 S/ 132,000.00 S/ 145,200.00 S/ 159,720.00 S/ 175,692.00 S/ 193,261.20 S/ 212,587.32
Deuda S/.450,000 -86432.5806427848 = EBITDA -S/ 591,432.58 -S/ 707,932.58 -S/ 552,282.58 -S/ 718,657.58 -S/ 694,034.08 -S/ 996,370.73 S/ 365,315.47
- Depreciacion S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Costos directos materiales 0.32 0.38 = EBIT -S/ 666,432.58 -S/ 782,932.58 -S/ 627,282.58 -S/ 793,657.58 -S/ 769,034.08 -S/ 1,071,370.73 S/ 290,315.47
Costos mano de obra 22.5% - Impuestos -S/ 196,597.61 -S/ 230,965.11 -S/ 185,048.36 -S/ 234,128.99 -S/ 226,865.05 -S/ 316,054.37 S/ 85,643.06
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 + Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
= NOPAT -S/ 394,834.97 -S/ 476,967.47 -S/ 367,234.22 -S/ 484,528.59 -S/ 467,169.03 -S/ 680,316.37 S/ 279,672.41
PPC 65 dias - CAPEX S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPI 90 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 398,055.56 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPP 30 dias + Valor de recupero S/.168,600
+ Recupero del cap de trabajo S/ 360,586.48
Precio de venta S/.145,000 = Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,148,056 -S/.394,835 -S/.476,967 -S/.367,234 -S/.484,529 -S/.467,169 -S/.680,316 S/.808,859
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable VAN -S/.2,729,946 VAN > 0 VALOR
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% TIR Err:523 TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
IR -1.38 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD
CCPP (WACC) 11.00%
tasa del Banco 8.00% Activo Fijo S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00
Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Activo Fijo Neto S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000 S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000
+
VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00 + Cuentas por cobrar S/ 180,555.56 S/ 198,611.11 S/ 218,472.22 S/ 240,319.44 S/ 264,351.39 S/ 290,786.53 S/ 319,865.18 -
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial - Inventarios S/ 326,250.00 S/ 375,375.00 S/ 358,462.50 S/ 424,256.25 S/ 444,720.38 S/ 549,586.54 S/ 241,375.19 -
= Cuentas por pagar S/ 108,750.00 S/ 125,125.00 S/ 119,487.50 S/ 141,418.75 S/ 148,240.13 S/ 183,195.51 S/ 80,458.40 -
Capital de trabajo S/ 398,055.56 S/ 448,861.11 S/ 457,447.22 S/ 523,156.94 S/ 560,831.64 S/ 657,177.55 S/ 480,781.97 -
2. Efecto impositivo Inversiones en capital de tr S/ 398,055.56 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 0 0
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable VAN TIR IR
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 -S/.2,729,946 Err:523 -1.38 COMISIÓN
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 S/.500,000 -S/.4,194,524 Err:523 0.23 -S/.2,729,946 3% 5%
S/.800,000 -S/.3,315,777 Err:523 0.74 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,777,501.77 S/ 3,517,847.38
S/.894,398 -S/.3,039,270 Err:523 0.90 S/ 4,000,000.00 S/ 6,923,036.34 S/ 6,576,830.48
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.1,000,000 -S/.2,729,946 Err:523 1.03 Gestión en función del valor
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia S/.1,500,000 -S/.1,265,368 -8.92% 1.58
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo

0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA -S/.591,433
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar -S/.47,315
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo -S/.591,433

Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,148,056 -S/.394,835 -S/.476,967 -S/.367,234 -S/.484,529 -S/.467,169

+ Desembolsos -S/.591,433
- intereses -S/.47,315 -S/.39,250 -S/.30,539 -S/.21,132 -S/.10,972
- amortizaciones -S/.100,814 -S/.108,879 -S/.117,589 -S/.126,996 -S/.137,156
+ escudo tributario de los intereses -S/.13,958 -S/.11,579 -S/.9,009 -S/.6,234 -S/.3,237
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.1,739,488 -S/.260,665 -S/.340,418 -S/.228,115 -S/.342,634 -S/.322,278

TIR Err:523

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 -S/.591,433
1 -S/.490,619 -S/.47,315 -S/.100,814 -S/.148,128
2 -S/.381,740 -S/.39,250 -S/.108,879 -S/.148,128
3 -S/.264,152 -S/.30,539 -S/.117,589 -S/.148,128
4 -S/.137,156 -S/.21,132 -S/.126,996 -S/.148,128
5 S/.0 -S/.10,972 -S/.137,156 -S/.148,128
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,100,000.00 S/ 1,210,000.00 S/ 1,331,000.00 S/ 1,464,100.00 S/ 1,610,510.00 S/ 1,771,561.00
CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales S/ 350,000.00 S/ 385,000.00 S/ 423,500.00 S/ 465,850.00 S/ 512,435.00 S/ 563,678.50 S/ 620,046.35
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto S/ 425,000.00 S/ 467,500.00 S/ 514,250.00 S/ 565,675.00 S/ 622,242.50 S/ 684,466.75 S/ 752,913.43
Comisiones S/ 80,000.00 S/ 88,000.00 S/ 96,800.00 S/ 106,480.00 S/ 117,128.00 S/ 128,840.80 S/ 141,724.88
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 Gasto financiero S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
Comision de venta 8.00% Gastos administativo S/ 138,750.00 S/ 149,850.00 S/ 167,832.00 S/ 184,615.20 S/ 201,230.57 S/ 221,353.62 S/ 247,916.06
Deuda S/.450,000 -86432.5806427848 = EBITDA S/ 119,817.42 S/ 143,217.42 S/ 163,185.42 S/ 188,147.22 S/ 217,451.35 S/ 247,839.74 S/ 276,839.90
- Depreciacion S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Costos directos materiales 35% = EBIT S/ 44,817.42 S/ 68,217.42 S/ 88,185.42 S/ 113,147.22 S/ 142,451.35 S/ 172,839.74 S/ 201,839.90
Costos mano de obra 22.5% - Impuestos S/ 13,221.14 S/ 20,124.14 S/ 26,014.70 S/ 33,378.43 S/ 42,023.15 S/ 50,987.72 S/ 59,542.77
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 S/.150,000 + Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Incremento de gastos 0.08 0.12 = NOPAT S/ 106,596.28 S/ 123,093.28 S/ 137,170.72 S/ 154,768.79 S/ 175,428.20 S/ 196,852.02 S/ 217,297.13
- CAPEX S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPC 65 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 276,388.89 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPI 90 dias + Valor de recupero S/.168,600
PPP 30 dias + Recupero del cap de trabajo S/ 367,229.83
= Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.106,596 S/.123,093 S/.137,171 S/.154,769 S/.175,428 S/.196,852 S/.753,127
Precio de venta S/.145,000 INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) VAN -S/.56,099 VAN > 0 VALOR
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable TIR 9.73% TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% IR 0.95 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD

CCPP (WACC) 11.00% Activo Fijo S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00
tasa del Banco 8.00% Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Activo Fijo Neto S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000 S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000
+
+ Cuentas por cobrar S/ 180,555.56 S/ 198,611.11 S/ 218,472.22 S/ 240,319.44 S/ 264,351.39 S/ 290,786.53 S/ 319,865.18 -
VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00 - Inventarios S/ 143,750.00 S/ 158,125.00 S/ 173,937.50 S/ 191,331.25 S/ 210,464.38 S/ 231,510.81 S/ 254,661.89 -
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial = Cuentas por pagar S/ 47,916.67 S/ 52,708.33 S/ 57,979.17 S/ 63,777.08 S/ 70,154.79 S/ 77,170.27 S/ 84,887.30 -
Capital de trabajo S/ 276,388.89 S/ 304,027.78 S/ 334,430.56 S/ 367,873.61 S/ 404,660.97 S/ 445,127.07 S/ 489,639.78 -
Inversiones en capital de t S/ 276,388.89 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 0 0
2. Efecto impositivo
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial VAN TIR IR
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable -S/.56,099 9.73% 0.95 COMISIÓN
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 S/.500,000 -S/.752,850 -13.16% 0.22 -S/.56,099 3% 5%
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 S/.800,000 -S/.334,799 2.49% 0.65 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,380,043.74 S/ 3,120,389.34
S/.894,398 -S/.203,255 6.11% 0.79 S/ 4,000,000.00 S/ 4,989,925.64 S/ 4,643,719.77
S/.1,000,000 -S/.56,099 9.73% 0.96 Gestión en función del valor
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.1,500,000 S/.640,653 22.78% 1.58
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo
0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA S/.119,817
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar S/.9,585
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo S/.119,817
 Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.106,596 S/.123,093 S/.137,171 S/.154,769 S/.175,428

+ Desembolsos S/.119,817
- intereses S/.9,585 S/.7,952 S/.6,187 S/.4,281 S/.2,223
- amortizaciones S/.20,424 S/.22,058 S/.23,822 S/.25,728 S/.27,786
+ escudo tributario de los intereses S/.2,828 S/.2,346 S/.1,825 S/.1,263 S/.656
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.906,571 S/.79,415 S/.95,430 S/.108,987 S/.126,023 S/.146,075

TIR -13.29%

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 S/.119,817
1 S/.99,394 S/.9,585 S/.20,424 S/.30,009
2 S/.77,336 S/.7,952 S/.22,058 S/.30,009
3 S/.53,514 S/.6,187 S/.23,822 S/.30,009
4 S/.27,786 S/.4,281 S/.25,728 S/.30,009
5 S/.0 S/.2,223 S/.27,786 S/.30,009
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos) Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 1,100,000.00 S/ 1,210,000.00 S/ 1,331,000.00 S/ 1,464,100.00 S/ 1,610,510.00 S/ 1,771,561.00
CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra S/ 225,000.00 S/ 247,500.00 S/ 272,250.00 S/ 299,475.00 S/ 329,422.50 S/ 362,364.75 S/ 398,601.23
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales S/ 350,000.00 S/ 385,000.00 S/ 423,500.00 S/ 465,850.00 S/ 512,435.00 S/ 563,678.50 S/ 620,046.35
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto S/ 425,000.00 S/ 467,500.00 S/ 514,250.00 S/ 565,675.00 S/ 622,242.50 S/ 684,466.75 S/ 752,913.43
Comisiones S/ 80,000.00 S/ 88,000.00 S/ 96,800.00 S/ 106,480.00 S/ 117,128.00 S/ 128,840.80 S/ 141,724.88
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 Gasto financiero S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
Comision de venta 8.00% Gastos administativo S/ 120,000.00 S/ 132,000.00 S/ 145,200.00 S/ 159,720.00 S/ 175,692.00 S/ 193,261.20 S/ 212,587.32
Deuda S/.450,000 -S/86,432.58 = EBITDA S/ 138,567.42 S/ 161,067.42 S/ 185,817.42 S/ 213,042.42 S/ 242,989.92 S/ 275,932.17 S/ 312,168.64
- Depreciacion S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Costos directos materiales 35% = EBIT S/ 63,567.42 S/ 86,067.42 S/ 110,817.42 S/ 138,042.42 S/ 167,989.92 S/ 200,932.17 S/ 237,168.64
Costos mano de obra 22.5% - Impuestos S/ 18,752.39 S/ 25,389.89 S/ 32,691.14 S/ 40,722.51 S/ 49,557.03 S/ 59,274.99 S/ 69,964.75
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 + Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
= NOPAT S/ 119,815.03 S/ 135,677.53 S/ 153,126.28 S/ 172,319.91 S/ 193,432.89 S/ 216,657.18 S/ 242,203.89
PPC 65 dias - CAPEX S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPI 90 dias - Inversiones en capital de S/ 276,388.89 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
PPP 30 dias + Valor de recupero S/.168,600
+ Recupero del cap de trabajo S/ 367,229.83
Precio de venta S/.145,000 = Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.119,815 S/.135,678 S/.153,126 S/.172,320 S/.193,433 S/.216,657 S/.778,034
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) INDICADORES BÁSICOS
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable VAN S/.22,522 VAN > 0 VALOR
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% TIR 11.51% TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
IR 1.02 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD
CCPP (WACC) 11.00%
tasa del Banco 8.00% Activo Fijo S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00
Depreciación S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
Activo Fijo Neto S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000 S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000

VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00 + Cuentas por cobrar S/ 180,555.56 S/ 198,611.11 S/ 218,472.22 S/ 240,319.44 S/ 264,351.39 S/ 290,786.53 S/ 319,865.18 -
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial + Inventarios S/ 143,750.00 S/ 158,125.00 S/ 173,937.50 S/ 191,331.25 S/ 210,464.38 S/ 231,510.81 S/ 254,661.89 -
- Cuentas por pagar S/ 47,916.67 S/ 52,708.33 S/ 57,979.17 S/ 63,777.08 S/ 70,154.79 S/ 77,170.27 S/ 84,887.30 -
= Capital de trabajo S/ 276,388.89 S/ 304,027.78 S/ 334,430.56 S/ 367,873.61 S/ 404,660.97 S/ 445,127.07 S/ 489,639.78 -
2. Efecto impositivo Inversiones en capital de t S/ 276,388.89 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 0 0
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable VAN TIR IR
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 S/.22,522 11.51% 1.02 COMISIÓN
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 S/.500,000 0.24 S/.22,522 3% 5%
S/.800,000 0.74 S/ 3,000,000.00
S/.894,398 0.88 S/ 4,000,000.00
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO S/.1,000,000 1.02 Gestión en función del valor
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia S/.1,500,000 1.62
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo

0
S/.300,000

Capacidad de pago
Ratio Cobertura = EBITDA / intereses =12.5

EBITDA S/.138,567
Cobertura 12.50 AAA
Intereses que podriamos pagar S/.11,085
Tasa del Banco 8.00%
Prestamo S/.138,567
 Flujo de caja de patrimonio

+ Flujo de caja libre -S/.1,026,389 S/.119,815 S/.135,678 S/.153,126 S/.172,320 S/.193,433 S/.216,657 S/.778,034
+ Desembolsos S/.138,567
- intereses S/.11,085 S/.9,843 S/.8,501 S/.7,052 S/.5,487 S/.3,797 S/.1,971
- amortizaciones S/.15,530 S/.16,772 S/.18,114 S/.19,563 S/.21,128 S/.22,818 S/.24,643
+ escudo tributario de los intereses S/.3,270 S/.2,904 S/.2,508 S/.2,080 S/.1,619 S/.1,120 S/.582
Flujo de caja de patrimonio -S/.887,821 S/.96,470 S/.111,966 S/.129,019 S/.147,785 S/.168,437 S/.191,162 S/.752,000

TIR 12.15%

Cronograma de pago con cuotas fijas

Saldo Interes Amortizacion Cuota
0 S/.138,567
1 S/.123,038 S/.11,085 S/.15,530 S/.26,615
2 S/.106,266 S/.9,843 S/.16,772 S/.26,615
3 S/.88,152 S/.8,501 S/.18,114 S/.26,615
4 S/.68,589 S/.7,052 S/.19,563 S/.26,615
5 S/.47,462 S/.5,487 S/.21,128 S/.26,615
6 S/.24,643 S/.3,797 S/.22,818 S/.26,615
7 S/.0 S/.1,971 S/.24,643 S/.26,615
 Inputs de valor (Supuestos)

Inversion (CAPEX) S/.1,200,000 + Ventas

CAPEX anuales S/.100,000 - Costo de ventas
Depreciacion 7.00 años = Margen Bruto
Impuesto 29.50% Comisiones
Gastos comerciales
Ventas esperadas S/.3,000,000 Gastos administativo
Gastos de taller
10% 0% S/.2,500,000 = EBITDA
20% 10% S/.2,500,000 - Depreciacion
40% 30% S/.3,000,000 = EBIT
20% 70% S/.3,500,000 - Impuestos
10% 90% S/.4,000,000 + Depreciación
= NOPAT
Comision de venta 3.00% - CAPEX
Gastos comerciales S/.80,000 - Inversiones en capital de
+ Valor de recupero
Costo de ventas 60% 3% + Recupero del cap de trabajo
gastos taller S/.300,000 = Flujo de caja libre
Gastos administrativos 0 INDICADORES BÁSICOS
VAN
PPC 90 dias TIR
PPI 60 dias IR
PPP 30 dias
Activo FIJo
Precio de venta S/.300,000 Depreciación
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) Activo Fijo Neto
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable
recupero de capital de traba 80.00% Cuentas por cobrar
Inventarios
CCPP (WACC) 11.00% Cuentas por pagar
tasa del Banco 8.00% Capital de trabajo
Inversiones en capital de t

+
VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 418,000.00 +
1. Venta del activo S/.300,000 Valor comercial -
=

2. Efecto impositivo Análisis de datos / tabla de datos / columna /

Ingreso por taller S/ 300,000.00 Valor comercial 1 S/.683,722
Costo de ventas S/ 700,000.00 Valor contable 2 S/.683,722
UTILIDAD -S/ 400,000.00 3 S/.683,722
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 118,000.00 4 S/.683,722
5 S/.683,722
6 S/.683,722
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO 7 S/.683,722
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia 8 S/.683,722
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia 9 S/.683,722
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo 10 S/.683,722
11 S/.683,722
12 S/.683,722
13 S/.683,722
14 S/.683,722
15 S/.683,722
16 S/.683,722
17 S/.683,722
18 S/.683,722
19 S/.683,722
20 S/.683,722
21 S/.683,722
22 S/.683,722
23 S/.683,722
24 S/.683,722
25 S/.683,722
26 S/.683,722
27 S/.683,722
28 S/.683,722
29 S/.683,722
30 S/.683,722
31 S/.683,722
32 S/.683,722
33 S/.683,722
34 S/.683,722
35 S/.683,722
36 S/.683,722
37 S/.683,722
38 S/.683,722
39 S/.683,722
40 S/.683,722
41 S/.683,722
42 S/.683,722
43 S/.683,722
44 S/.683,722
45 S/.683,722
46 S/.683,722
47 S/.683,722
48 S/.683,722
49 S/.683,722
50 S/.683,722
51 S/.683,722
52 S/.683,722
53 S/.683,722
54 S/.683,722
55 S/.683,722
56 S/.683,722
57 S/.683,722
58 S/.683,722
59 S/.683,722
60 S/.683,722
61 S/.683,722
62 S/.683,722
63 S/.683,722
64 S/.683,722
65 S/.683,722
66 S/.683,722
67 S/.683,722
68 S/.683,722
69 S/.683,722
70 S/.683,722
71 S/.683,722
72 S/.683,722
73 S/.683,722
74 S/.683,722
75 S/.683,722
76 S/.683,722
77 S/.683,722
78 S/.683,722
79 S/.683,722
80 S/.683,722
81 S/.683,722
82 S/.683,722
83 S/.683,722
84 S/.683,722
85 S/.683,722
86 S/.683,722
87 S/.683,722
88 S/.683,722
89 S/.683,722
90 S/.683,722
91 S/.683,722
92 S/.683,722
93 S/.683,722
 94 S/.683,722
95 S/.683,722
96 S/.683,722
97 S/.683,722
98 S/.683,722
99 S/.683,722
100 S/.683,722
101 S/.683,722
102 S/.683,722
103 S/.683,722
104 S/.683,722
105 S/.683,722
106 S/.683,722
107 S/.683,722
108 S/.683,722
109 S/.683,722
110 S/.683,722
111 S/.683,722
112 S/.683,722
113 S/.683,722
114 S/.683,722
115 S/.683,722
116 S/.683,722
117 S/.683,722
118 S/.683,722
119 S/.683,722
120 S/.683,722
121 S/.683,722
122 S/.683,722
123 S/.683,722
124 S/.683,722
125 S/.683,722
126 S/.683,722
127 S/.683,722
128 S/.683,722
129 S/.683,722
130 S/.683,722
131 S/.683,722
132 S/.683,722
133 S/.683,722
134 S/.683,722
135 S/.683,722
136 S/.683,722
137 S/.683,722
138 S/.683,722
139 S/.683,722
140 S/.683,722
141 S/.683,722
142 S/.683,722
143 S/.683,722
144 S/.683,722
145 S/.683,722
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274 S/.683,722
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896 S/.683,722
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903 S/.683,722
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912 S/.683,722
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930 S/.683,722
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932 S/.683,722
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935 S/.683,722
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937 S/.683,722
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940 S/.683,722
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950 S/.683,722
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952 S/.683,722
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954 S/.683,722
955 S/.683,722
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957 S/.683,722
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959 S/.683,722
960 S/.683,722
961 S/.683,722
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963 S/.683,722
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969 S/.683,722
970 S/.683,722
971 S/.683,722
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991 S/.683,722
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1000 S/.683,722
 Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4
S/ 2,500,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 3,000,000.00 S/ 4,000,000.00
S/ 1,546,580.84 S/ 1,711,266.37 S/ 1,863,100.55 S/ 2,435,218.37
S/ 953,419.16 S/ 1,288,733.63 S/ 1,136,899.45 S/ 1,564,781.63
S/ 75,000.00 S/ 90,000.00 S/ 90,000.00 S/ 120,000.00
S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00 S/ 80,000.00
S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00 S/ 300,000.00
S/ 498,419.16 S/ 818,733.63 S/ 666,899.45 S/ 1,064,781.63
S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71
S/ 326,990.59 S/ 633,019.35 S/ 466,899.45 S/ 850,495.92
S/ 96,462.22 S/ 186,740.71 S/ 137,735.34 S/ 250,896.30
S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71
S/ 401,956.94 S/ 631,992.93 S/ 529,164.11 S/ 813,885.34
S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00 S/ 100,000.00
S/ 753,881.74 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -

cap de trabajo
-S/.1,953,882 S/.301,957 S/.531,993 S/.429,164 S/.713,885

S/.683,722 VAN > 0 Si firmamos esto, la empresa sube de valor 322,674

20.67% TIR > WACC te rinde mas de lo que cuesta
1.35 IR >= 1 Cada sol invertido tiene un valor actual de 1.15

S/ 1,200,000.00 S/ 1,300,000.00 S/ 1,400,000.00 S/ 1,500,000.00 S/ 1,600,000.00

S/ 171,428.57 S/ 185,714.29 S/ 200,000.00 S/ 214,285.71
S/.1,200,000 S/.1,128,571 S/.1,042,857 S/.942,857 S/.828,571

S/ 625,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 875,000.00

S/ 257,763.47 S/ 285,211.06 S/ 310,516.76 S/ 405,869.73 S/ 332,541.87
S/ 128,881.74 S/ 142,605.53 S/ 155,258.38 S/ 202,934.86 S/ 166,270.94
S/ 753,881.74 S/ 892,605.53 S/ 905,258.38 S/ 1,202,934.86 S/ 1,041,270.94
S/ 753,881.74 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0

os / tabla de datos / columna / celda vacía

Columna1

Media S/ 304,437.05 Valor esperado

Error típico S/ 11,029.52
Mediana S/ 321,024.38
Moda #N/A
Desviación estánda S/ 348,784.09 Riesgo
Varianza de la mue 121650340356.524
Curtosis S/ 0.11
Coeficiente de asim-S/ 0.05
Rango S/ 2,536,749.31
Mínimo -S/ 949,960.38
Máximo S/ 1,586,788.93
Suma S/ 304,437,048.52
Cuenta 1000

Columna1

Media S/ 366,562.17 Valor esperado

Error típico S/ 7,872.20
Mediana S/ 364,372.56
Moda #N/A
Desviación estánda S/ 248,940.86 Riesgo
Varianza de la mue S/ 61,971,553,451.87
Curtosis -S/ 0.22
Coeficiente de asimS/ 0.17
Rango S/ 1,608,038.97
Mínimo -S/ 476,866.72
Máximo S/ 1,131,172.25
Suma S/ 366,562,166.68
Cuenta 1000
 5
S/ 3,500,000.00
S/ 1,995,251.24
S/ 1,504,748.76
S/ 105,000.00
S/ 80,000.00
S/ -
S/ 300,000.00
S/ 1,019,748.76
S/ 228,571.43
S/ 791,177.33
S/ 233,397.31
S/ 228,571.43
S/ 786,351.45
S/ 100,000.00

S/ 418,000.00
S/.833,017
S/.1,937,368

VALOR
RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECT Valor de salvamento
ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD

S/ 1,700,000.00
S/ 228,571.43
S/.700,000

S/ -
S/ -
S/ -
S/ -

CxC=ventasxPPC/360
Inventarios=costo de ventas xPPI/360
CxP= costo de ventas x PPP/360

zeta=resultado - media/desviación estandar

Resultado zeta Probabilidad

 0 -0.87285245685 19.14%

La probabilidad de tener un riesgo negativo es de 19.14%

Profe dice 5% o 6% ya es bastante

Resultado zeta Probabilidad

S/ 1,000,000.00 1.99425081165 97.69% 2.31%

La probabilidad de tener ganancias sobre 1M es 2.31%

Resultado zeta Probabilidad

0 -1.47248692614 7.04%

La probabilidad de tener un riesgo negativo es de 7.04%

Profe dice 5% o 6% ya es bastante

Resultado zeta Probabilidad

S/ 1,000,000.00 2.544531358807 99.45% 0.55%

La probabilidad de tener ganancias sobre 1M es 0.55%

 Inputs de valor (Supuestos)

Inversion (CAPEX) S/.750,000 + Ventas

CAPEX anuales - Costo de mano de obra
Depreciacion 10 años - Costo de materiales
Impuesto 29.50% = Margen Bruto
Comisiones
Ventas esperadas S/.1,000,000 S/.100,000 Gasto financiero
Crecimiento 0.10 0.02 Gastos administativo
Comision de venta 8.00% = EBITDA
Deuda S/.450,000 -S/.86,433 - Depreciacion
= EBIT
Costos directos materiales 35% - Impuestos
30% 0% 21.50% + Depreciación
40% 30% 22.50% = NOPAT
30% 70% 24.00% - CAPEX
- Inversiones en capital de
Costos mano de obra 22.5% + Valor de recupero
Gastos administrativos S/.120,000 + Recupero del cap de trabajo
= Flujo de caja libre
PPC 65 dias INDICADORES BÁSICOS
PPI 90 dias VAN
PPP 30 dias TIR
IR
Precio de venta S/.145,000
Valor de recupero = Precio de vta - imp x (ganancia de capital) Activo Fijo
Ganancia de capital = Precio de venta - valor contable Depreciación
recupero de capital de traba 75.00% Activo Fijo Neto
+
CCPP (WACC) 11.00% + Cuentas por cobrar
tasa del Banco 8.00% - Inventarios
= Cuentas por pagar
Capital de trabajo
Inversiones en capital de t
VALOR DE RECUPERO S/ 168,600.00
1. Venta del activo S/.145,000 Valor comercial

1
2. Efecto impositivo 2
Ingreso por taller S/ 145,000.00 Valor comercial 3
Costo de ventas S/ 225,000.00 Valor contable 4
UTILIDAD -S/ 80,000.00 5
ESCUDO TRIBUTARIO S/ 23,600.00 6
7
 8
ANÁLISIS DE RIESGO 9
1. Sensibilidad 1 variable cambia 10
2. Escenarios 2 o mas variables cambia 11
3. Aleatorio probabilistico Simulación de montecarlo 12
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 Flujo de caja libre
0 1 2 3 4
S/ 1,000,000.00 S/ 934,637.05 S/ 1,029,874.67 S/ 1,126,347.92 S/ 1,281,553.79
S/ 210,293.34 S/ 231,721.80 S/ 253,428.28 S/ 288,349.60
S/ 200,946.97 S/ 231,721.80 S/ 270,323.50 S/ 288,349.60
S/ 523,396.75 S/ 566,431.07 S/ 602,596.14 S/ 704,854.58
S/ 74,770.96 S/ 82,389.97 S/ 90,107.83 S/ 102,524.30
S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
S/ 120,000.00 S/ 132,000.00 S/ 145,200.00 S/ 159,720.00
S/ 242,193.20 S/ 265,608.52 S/ 280,855.72 S/ 356,177.70
S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/ 167,193.20 S/ 190,608.52 S/ 205,855.72 S/ 281,177.70
S/ 49,321.99 S/ 56,229.51 S/ 60,727.44 S/ 82,947.42
S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/ 192,871.21 S/ 209,379.00 S/ 220,128.29 S/ 273,230.28
S/ 750,000.00 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -
S/ 237,293.96 S/ - S/ - S/ - S/ -

cap de trabajo
-S/.987,294 S/.192,871 S/.209,379 S/.220,128 S/.273,230

S/.463,241 VAN > 0 VALOR

21.39% TIR > WACC RENTABILIDAD DEL PROYECTO
1.47 IR >= 1 ÍNDICE DE RENTABILIDAD

S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00

S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/.750,000 S/.675,000 S/.600,000 S/.525,000 S/.450,000

S/ 168,753.91 S/ 185,949.59 S/ 203,368.37 S/ 231,391.66 S/ 250,276.47

S/ 102,810.08 S/ 115,860.90 S/ 130,937.95 S/ 144,174.80 S/ 152,476.13
S/ 34,270.03 S/ 38,620.30 S/ 43,645.98 S/ 48,058.27 S/ 50,825.38
S/ 237,293.96 S/ 263,190.19 S/ 290,660.34 S/ 327,508.19 S/ 351,927.22
S/ 237,293.96 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0 S/.0

S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43 Columna1
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43 Media
S/ 463,241.43 Error típico
S/ 463,241.43 Mediana
S/ 463,241.43 Moda
S/ 463,241.43 Desviación estánd
S/ 463,241.43 Varianza de la mue
S/ 463,241.43 Curtosis
S/ 463,241.43 Coeficiente de asi
S/ 463,241.43 Rango
S/ 463,241.43 Mínimo
S/ 463,241.43 Máximo
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S/ 463,241.43 Cuenta
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S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43
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S/ 463,241.43
 5 6 7
S/ 1,386,146.60 S/ 1,494,715.42 S/ 1,654,946.64
S/ 311,882.98 S/ 336,310.97 S/ 372,362.99
S/ 298,021.52 S/ 321,363.81 S/ 372,362.99
S/ 776,242.09 S/ 837,040.63 S/ 910,220.65
S/ 110,891.73 S/ 119,577.23 S/ 132,395.73
S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58 S/ 86,432.58
S/ 175,692.00 S/ 193,261.20 S/ 212,587.32
S/ 403,225.79 S/ 437,769.62 S/ 478,805.02
S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/ 328,225.79 S/ 362,769.62 S/ 403,805.02
S/ 96,826.61 S/ 107,017.04 S/ 119,122.48
S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/ 306,399.18 S/ 330,752.58 S/ 359,682.54
S/ - S/ - S/ -
S/ - S/ - S/ -
S/.168,600
S/ 317,198.11
S/.306,399 S/.330,753 S/.845,481

S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00 S/ 750,000.00

S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00 S/ 75,000.00
S/.375,000 S/.300,000 S/.225,000

S/ 269,879.17 S/ 298,809.81 -
S/ 164,418.70 S/ 186,181.50 -
S/ 54,806.23 S/ 62,060.50 -
S/ 379,491.64 S/ 422,930.81 -
S/.0 0 0
 Resultado zeta Probabilidad
S/ 570,239.04 0 -2.7203171 0.33%
S/ 6,628.84
S/ 573,549.29
#N/A
S/ 209,622.27
S/ 43,941,495,393.25
S/ 0.19
-S/ 0.03
S/ 1,526,180.19
-S/ 69,986.86
S/ 1,456,193.34
S/ 570,239,041.28
1000