Unidades vendidas Mod

Probabilidad Acumulada Unidades Esperados

30% 0% 500,000 Ingreso
30% 30% 550,000
30% 60% 600,000
10% 90% 800,000 575,000 Total ingresos

Costo variable Costo

Probabilidad Acumulada CV
30% 0% 68.00%
30% 30% 69.00%
30% 60% 70.00% Total costos
10% 90% 72.00% 69.30%
EBIT
Precio
Precio Esperado 35 35 Impuestos
Desviacion estandar 2
UTILIDAD NETA
Costos fijos 5,000,000

Tasa impuestos 30.00%

 Modelo en base a esperados

cantidad 575,000
Precio 35
otal ingresos 20,125,000

Costo variable 69.30% 13,946,625

Costo fijo 5,000,000

otal costos 18,946,625

1,178,375

353,513

UTILIDAD NETA 824,863

EL ANALISIS DE
SENSIBILIDAD ES
CUANDO CAMBIA SOLO
UNA VARIABLE
1) ANALISIS DE SENSIBILDAD

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD CON LAS UNIDADES VENDIDAS

Nº UNIDADES UTILIDAD Nº UNIDADES
824,863
500,000 500,000
550,000 550,000
600,000 600,000
800,000 800,000

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD CON EL COSTO DE VENTAS

% COSTO DE VENTAS UTILIDAD % COSTO DE VENTAS
824,863
68% 68%
69% 69%
70% 70%
72% 72%
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD PRECIO
PRECIO UTILIDAD PRECIO
824,863
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39

EL ANALISIS DE ESCENARIOS ES CUANDO CAMBIAN 2 VARIABLES

1) ANALISIS DE ESCENARIOS
ACA SE TRABAJA CON DATOS, ANALISIS DE HIPOTESIS Y TABLA DE DATOS.
AL MOMENTO DE LLENAR LA TABLA DE DATOS EN EL PRIMER CUADRO EL VALO
QUE ES EL PRECIO Y SE JALA DEL EERR Y EL SEGUNDO CUADRO SE LLENA CON
COLUMNA QUE ES LA CANTIDAD, IGUAL SE JALA DEL EERR. TIENE QUE SER LOS
PARA HACER EL ANALISIS DE ESCENARIOS LOS VALORES BASE DEL EERR.

ANALISIS DE ESCENARIOS CUANDO CAMBIAN SIMULTANEAMENTE LA VARIABLE CANTIDAD Y VARIABLE PRECIO

824,863 28.32 32.00

500,000 (456,522) (61,600)
550,000 (152,174) 282,240
UNIDADES
600,000 152,174 626,080
800,000 1,369,565 2,001,440

LOS ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD Y ESCENARIOS SON DETERMINISTICOS PORQU

AHORA QUE PASARIA SI EL COSTO VARIABLE QUE ES PARTE DEL ANALISIS DE
PUEDE HACER UN ANALISIS "ALEATORIO PROBABILISTICO CON SIMULACION
PROBABILISTICO".
 69.300%

RANGO PARA
HALLAR LA
UTILIDAD VARIABLE MAS
824,863 CRITICA
260,750
636,825
1,012,900
2,517,200 2,256,450

UTILIDAD
824,863
1,008,000 563,500
867,125
726,250
444,500
 UTILIDAD
824,863
-
454,160
577,728
701,295
824,863
948,430
1,071,998
1,195,565
1,319,133 1,319,133

AMBIAN 2 VARIABLES
HIPOTESIS Y TABLA DE DATOS.
OS EN EL PRIMER CUADRO EL VALOR REFERENTE DE LA FILA
SEGUNDO CUADRO SE LLENA CON EL REFERENTE DE LA
JALA DEL EERR. TIENE QUE SER LOS PIVOTS DE LAS VARIABLES
LOS VALORES BASE DEL EERR.

E CANTIDAD Y VARIABLE PRECIO

PRECIOS
33.00 34.00 35.00 36.00 37.00 38.00 39.00
45,850 153,300 260,750 368,200 475,650 583,100 690,550
400,435 518,630 636,825 755,020 873,215 991,410 1,109,605
755,020 883,960 1,012,900 1,141,840 1,270,780 1,399,720 1,528,660
2,173,360 2,345,280 2,517,200 2,689,120 2,861,040 3,032,960 3,204,880

ARIOS SON DETERMINISTICOS PORQUE ME INDICAN UN SOLO VALOR INDICADO.

BLE QUE ES PARTE DEL ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD Y ESCENARIOS NO LO ES YA QUE PODRIA VARIAR, ENTONCES SE
PROBABILISTICO CON SIMULACION MONTECARLO" O MEJOR DICHO UN "ANALISIS RIESGO ALEATORIO
QUIERO SABER EL PUNTO CRITICO DE LA VARIABLE PRECIO? POR EJEMPLO QUE LA UTILIDAD SEA CERO
PRECIO UTILIDAD
824,863
28.32 -
32.00 454,160
33.00 577,728
34.00 701,295
35.00 824,863
36.00 948,430
37.00 1,071,998
38.00 1,195,565
39.00 1,319,133
UE LA UTILIDAD SEA CERO
 Unidades vendidas Modelo en b
Probabilidad Acumulada Unidades Esperados
30% 0% 500,000 Ingreso
30% 30% 550,000
30% 60% 600,000
10% 90% 800,000 575,000 Total ingresos

Costo variable Costo

Probabilidad Acumulada CV
30% 0% 68.00%
30% 30% 69.00%
30% 60% 70.00% Total costos
10% 90% 72.00% 69.30%
EBIT
Precio
Precio Esperado 35 35 Impuestos
Desviacion estandar 2
EAT
Costos fijos 5,000,000
Unidades
Tasa impuestos 30.00% 500,000
550,000
600,000
800,000

C variable
68.0%
69.0%
70.0%
72.0%

Precio
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
 Modelo en base a esperados

cantidad 575,000
Precio 35
otal ingresos 20,125,000

Costo variable 69.30% 13,946,625

Costo fijo 5,000,000

otal costos 18,946,625

1,178,375

353,513

824,863

824,863 824,863 500,000 550,000 600,000

260,750 32 (61,600) 282,240 626,080
636,825 33 45,850 400,435 755,020
1,012,900 34 153,300 518,630 883,960
2,517,200 35 260,750 636,825 1,012,900
36 368,200 755,020 1,141,840
37 475,650 873,215 1,270,780
824,863 38 583,100 991,410 1,399,720
1,008,000
867,125
726,250
444,500

824,863
454,160
577,728
701,295
824,863
948,430
1,071,998
1,195,565
 800,000
2,001,440
2,173,360
2,345,280
2,517,200
2,689,120
2,861,040
3,032,960
 Unidades vendidas
Probabilidad Acumulada Unidades Esperados
30% 0% 500,000 Ingreso
30% 30% 550,000
30% 60% 600,000
10% 90% 800,000 575,000 Total ingresos

Costo variable Costo

Probabilidad Acumulada CV
30% 0% 68.00%
30% 30% 69.00%
30% 60% 70.00% Total costos
10% 90% 72.00% 69.30%
EBIT
Precio
Precio Esperado 35 35 Impuestos
Desviacion e 2
UTILIDAD NETA
Costos fijos 5,000,000

Tasa impuest 30.00%

SIMULACION MONTECARLO

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374
375
376
377
378
379
380
381
382
383
384
385
386
387
388
389
390
391
392
393
394
395
396
397
398
399
400
401
402
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
412
413
414
415
416
417
418
419
420
421
422
423
424
425
426
427
428
429
430
431
432
433
434
435
436
437
438
439
440
441
442
443
444
445
446
447
448
449
450
451
452
453
454
455
456
457
458
459
460
461
462
463
464
465
466
467
468
469
470
471
472
473
474
475
476
477
478
479
480
481
482
483
484
485
486
487
488
489
490
491
492
493
494
495
496
497
498
499
500
 Modelo en base a esperados

cantidad 500,000
Precio 36.13
18,066,042

Costo variab 70.00% 12,646,230

Costo fijo 5,000,000

17,646,230

419,813

125,944

293,869

LACION MONTECARLO ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE LA SIMULACION

293,869 MEDIA UTILIDAD 293,869

293868.914 DESVIACION ESTANDAR -
293868.914
293868.914 RANGO UTILIDAD 587,738
293868.914 MAXIMO UTILIDAD 293,869
293868.914 MINIMO UTILIDAD 293,869
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914 RANGO AL 68%
293868.914 RANGO SUPERIOR = MEDIA + 1 * DESV.ESTAND. 293,869
293868.914 RANGO INFERIOR = MEDIA - 1 * DESV.ESTAND. -
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914 RANGO AL 95% 881,607
293868.914 RANGO SUPERIOR = MEDIA + 2* DESV.ESTAND. 293,869
293868.914 RANGO INFERIOR = MEDIA - 2 * DESV.ESTAND.
293868.914
293868.914 CUAL ES LA PROBABILIDAD DE TENER UN RESULTADO MENOR QUE CERO
293868.914
293868.914 1ERO) DETERMINO EL RESULTADO DESEADO
293868.914 ACA SERIA CERO
293868.914 2DO) LUEGO CALCULO EL ZETA
293868.914 ZETA = (ELRESULTADO-MEDIA) / DESV.ESTAND.
293868.914 3ERO) FINALMENTE HALLO LA PROBABILIDAD CON EL ZETA YA CALCULADO
293868.914 PROBABILIDAD=> DISTRIB.NORM.ESTAND.=f(ZETA)
293868.914
293868.914 RESULTADO Z
293868.914 - #DIV/0!
293868.914
293868.914 CUAL ES LA PROBABILIDAD DE TENER UN RESULTADO MENOR QUE 500,000
293868.914 500,000 #DIV/0!
293868.914
293868.914 CUAL ES LA PROBABILIDAD DE TENER UN RESULTADO MAYOR QUE 2,500,000
293868.914 2,500,000 #DIV/0!
293868.914
293868.914 CUAL ES LA PROBABILIDAD DE TENER UN RESULTADO MENOR QUE 1,500,000
293868.914 1,500,000 #DIV/0!
293868.914
293868.914 CUAL ES LA PROBABILIDAD DE TENER UN RESULTADO MAYOR QUE 500,000 Y MENO
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
293868.914
QUE CERO
ALCULADO

PROBABILIDAD
#DIV/0!

QUE 500,000
#DIV/0!

QUE 2,500,000
#DIV/0!

QUE 1,500,000
#DIV/0!

QUE 500,000 Y MENOR QUE 1,500,000

#DIV/0!