Normal Urgencia Variacion % La productividad de mano de o

incremento en un 23,1%
a) Productividad (u/hh) 0.625 0.77 23.1%

Normal Urgencia Variacion % En emergencia , la utilidad uni

b) Productividad Multifactorial (u/$) 0.0074 0.0069 -7% baja un 7%

Normal Urgencia Variacion %

Productividad Multifactorial ($/$) 1.4881 1.3788 -7%

Normal Urgencia Variacion %

c) Utilidad 164,000 219,800 34%
Utilidad por unidad fabricada 65.6 54.95 -16%

d) Revisar el motivo por el cual la productividad del turno de emergencia es mayor a la de turnos normales

RESPUESTA D:
COMENTARIOS:
DE ACUERDO A NUESTRA APRECIASIÓN PARA MANTENER LA PRODUCTIVIDAD EN SITU
TURNO, PERO AUMENTAR O COMPENSAR ESA CANTIDAD DE TRABAJDORES TRASPASA
TURNO 1: 70 TRABAJADORES
RESPUESTA D:
COMENTARIOS:
DE ACUERDO A NUESTRA APRECIASIÓN PARA MANTENER LA PRODUCTIVIDAD EN SITU
TURNO, PERO AUMENTAR O COMPENSAR ESA CANTIDAD DE TRABAJDORES TRASPASA
TURNO 1: 70 TRABAJADORES
TURNO 2: 45 TRABAJADORES.
TURNO 3: 15 TRABAJADORES
CON ESTE CAMBIO, LOGRAMOS DISMINUIR LOS COSTOS FIJOS CORRESPONDIENTES A
URGENCIA REQUERIDA.
 Datos:
Situacion Normal

Turnos Turno 1
Horas por Turnos 40
Produccion Semanal 2,500
Costo normal producto 120
Cantidad de Empleados 100
Valor Hora Trabajador 9
Precio Contratado 200

Costo Produccion 300,000

Costo mano de obra 36,000
336,000

ductividad de mano de obra se

mento en un 23,1%

ergencia , la utilidad unitaria

n 7%

TIVIDAD EN SITUACIÓN DE URGENCIA DEBEMOS, DISMINUIR LA CANTIDAD DE TRABJADORES D

DORES TRASPASANDOLOS AL SEGUNDO TURNO, QUEDANDO DE LA SIGUIENTE MANERA.
 TIVIDAD EN SITUACIÓN DE URGENCIA DEBEMOS, DISMINUIR LA CANTIDAD DE TRABJADORES D
DORES TRASPASANDOLOS AL SEGUNDO TURNO, QUEDANDO DE LA SIGUIENTE MANERA.

SPONDIENTES A SALARIOS, AUMENTANDO ASI LAS UTILIDADES Y MANTENIENDO LA PRODUCTIV

 Urgencia

Turnos Turno 1
Horas por Turnos 40
Produccion Semanal 4,000
Costo normal producto (50% produccion) 120
Costo urgencia producto (50% produccion) 144
Cantidad de Empleados Normal 100
Cantidad de Empleados Urgencia 30
Valor Hora Trabajador Normal 9
Valor Hora Trabajador Urgencia 14
Precio Contratado 200

Costo Produccion 528,000

Costo mano de obra 52,200
580,200

OS, DISMINUIR LA CANTIDAD DE TRABJADORES DEL TERCER

O, QUEDANDO DE LA SIGUIENTE MANERA.
OS, DISMINUIR LA CANTIDAD DE TRABJADORES DEL TERCER
O, QUEDANDO DE LA SIGUIENTE MANERA.

LAS UTILIDADES Y MANTENIENDO LA PRODUCTIVAD DE

a) Datos 8,000,000
Precio de venta 15,000 $
7,000,000
Costo Fijo 2,400,000
Costo Variable 7,000 6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000
Cantidad de equilibro 300
2,000,000

Ingreso equilibrio 4,500,000 1,000,000

-
0 100 200 30

b) Utilidad esperada 3,000,000 Comprobacion

Ingresos por Venta
Cantidad a vender 675 Costo Venta

c) Compra Local Importacion

10,000,000
Precio de venta 15,000 $ 15,000
Costo Fijo 2,400,000 $1,200,000 9,000,000

Costo Variable 7,000 $ 9,500 8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000
 10,000,000

9,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000

5,000,000

4,000,000
Cantidad de Equilibro 480
3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

-
0 100 200 300

d) Si tiene planificado vender 700 unidades, es recomendable comprar localmente, ya que sobre 480 unidades se produc

Comprobacion

El costo total de 700 unidades,

Costo Total Compra local 7,300,000 con la alternativa de importacon,
es mas cara que la compra local.
Costo Total Importacion $ 7,850,000
00,000
$
00,000

00,000

00,000

00,000
Costo Total Compra Local
00,000 Ingresos
00,000

00,000

-
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Q

I=PxQ 10,125,000
C = CF+ CVxQ 7,125,000
3,000,000

0,000,000

9,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000
Costo Total Compra
Local
5,000,000
0,000,000

9,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000 Costo Total Compra

Local
5,000,000
Costo Total
4,000,000 Importacion
3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

-
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

ya que sobre 480 unidades se produce un menos costo

unidades,
importacon,
ompra local.
 Costo Total Costo Total
Unidades Ingresos
Compra Local Importacion

0 2,400,000 $1,200,000 -
1 2,407,000 $1,209,500 15,000
2 2,414,000 $1,219,000 30,000
3 2,421,000 $1,228,500 45,000
4 2,428,000 $1,238,000 60,000
5 2,435,000 $1,247,500 75,000
6 2,442,000 $1,257,000 90,000
7 2,449,000 $1,266,500 105,000
8 2,456,000 $1,276,000 120,000
9 2,463,000 $1,285,500 135,000
10 2,470,000 $1,295,000 150,000
11 2,477,000 $1,304,500 165,000
12 2,484,000 $1,314,000 180,000
13 2,491,000 $1,323,500 195,000
14 2,498,000 $1,333,000 210,000
15 2,505,000 $1,342,500 225,000
16 2,512,000 $1,352,000 240,000
17 2,519,000 $1,361,500 255,000
18 2,526,000 $1,371,000 270,000
19 2,533,000 $1,380,500 285,000
20 2,540,000 $1,390,000 300,000
21 2,547,000 $1,399,500 315,000
22 2,554,000 $1,409,000 330,000
23 2,561,000 $1,418,500 345,000
24 2,568,000 $1,428,000 360,000
25 2,575,000 $1,437,500 375,000
26 2,582,000 $1,447,000 390,000
27 2,589,000 $1,456,500 405,000
28 2,596,000 $1,466,000 420,000
29 2,603,000 $1,475,500 435,000
30 2,610,000 $1,485,000 450,000
31 2,617,000 $1,494,500 465,000
32 2,624,000 $1,504,000 480,000
33 2,631,000 $1,513,500 495,000
34 2,638,000 $1,523,000 510,000
35 2,645,000 $1,532,500 525,000
36 2,652,000 $1,542,000 540,000
37 2,659,000 $1,551,500 555,000
38 2,666,000 $1,561,000 570,000
39 2,673,000 $1,570,500 585,000

40 2,680,000 $1,580,000 600,000

41 2,687,000 $1,589,500 615,000
42 2,694,000 $1,599,000 630,000
43 2,701,000 $1,608,500 645,000
44 2,708,000 $1,618,000 660,000
45 2,715,000 $1,627,500 675,000
46 2,722,000 $1,637,000 690,000
47 2,729,000 $1,646,500 705,000
48 2,736,000 $1,656,000 720,000
49 2,743,000 $1,665,500 735,000
50 2,750,000 $1,675,000 750,000
51 2,757,000 $1,684,500 765,000
52 2,764,000 $1,694,000 780,000
53 2,771,000 $1,703,500 795,000
54 2,778,000 $1,713,000 810,000
55 2,785,000 $1,722,500 825,000
56 2,792,000 $1,732,000 840,000
57 2,799,000 $1,741,500 855,000
58 2,806,000 $1,751,000 870,000
59 2,813,000 $1,760,500 885,000
60 2,820,000 $1,770,000 900,000
61 2,827,000 $1,779,500 915,000
62 2,834,000 $1,789,000 930,000
63 2,841,000 $1,798,500 945,000
64 2,848,000 $1,808,000 960,000
65 2,855,000 $1,817,500 975,000
66 2,862,000 $1,827,000 990,000
67 2,869,000 $1,836,500 1,005,000
68 2,876,000 $1,846,000 1,020,000
69 2,883,000 $1,855,500 1,035,000
70 2,890,000 $1,865,000 1,050,000
71 2,897,000 $1,874,500 1,065,000
72 2,904,000 $1,884,000 1,080,000
73 2,911,000 $1,893,500 1,095,000
74 2,918,000 $1,903,000 1,110,000
75 2,925,000 $1,912,500 1,125,000
76 2,932,000 $1,922,000 1,140,000
77 2,939,000 $1,931,500 1,155,000
78 2,946,000 $1,941,000 1,170,000
79 2,953,000 $1,950,500 1,185,000
80 2,960,000 $1,960,000 1,200,000
81 2,967,000 $1,969,500 1,215,000
82 2,974,000 $1,979,000 1,230,000
83 2,981,000 $1,988,500 1,245,000
84 2,988,000 $1,998,000 1,260,000
85 2,995,000 $2,007,500 1,275,000
 86 3,002,000 $2,017,000 1,290,000
87 3,009,000 $2,026,500 1,305,000
88 3,016,000 $2,036,000 1,320,000
89 3,023,000 $2,045,500 1,335,000
90 3,030,000 $2,055,000 1,350,000
91 3,037,000 $2,064,500 1,365,000
92 3,044,000 $2,074,000 1,380,000
93 3,051,000 $2,083,500 1,395,000
94 3,058,000 $2,093,000 1,410,000
95 3,065,000 $2,102,500 1,425,000
96 3,072,000 $2,112,000 1,440,000
97 3,079,000 $2,121,500 1,455,000
98 3,086,000 $2,131,000 1,470,000
99 3,093,000 $2,140,500 1,485,000
100 3,100,000 $2,150,000 1,500,000
101 3,107,000 $2,159,500 1,515,000
102 3,114,000 $2,169,000 1,530,000
103 3,121,000 $2,178,500 1,545,000
104 3,128,000 $2,188,000 1,560,000
105 3,135,000 $2,197,500 1,575,000
106 3,142,000 $2,207,000 1,590,000
107 3,149,000 $2,216,500 1,605,000
108 3,156,000 $2,226,000 1,620,000
109 3,163,000 $2,235,500 1,635,000
110 3,170,000 $2,245,000 1,650,000
111 3,177,000 $2,254,500 1,665,000
112 3,184,000 $2,264,000 1,680,000
113 3,191,000 $2,273,500 1,695,000
114 3,198,000 $2,283,000 1,710,000
115 3,205,000 $2,292,500 1,725,000
116 3,212,000 $2,302,000 1,740,000
117 3,219,000 $2,311,500 1,755,000
118 3,226,000 $2,321,000 1,770,000
119 3,233,000 $2,330,500 1,785,000
120 3,240,000 $2,340,000 1,800,000
121 3,247,000 $2,349,500 1,815,000
122 3,254,000 $2,359,000 1,830,000
123 3,261,000 $2,368,500 1,845,000
124 3,268,000 $2,378,000 1,860,000
125 3,275,000 $2,387,500 1,875,000
126 3,282,000 $2,397,000 1,890,000
127 3,289,000 $2,406,500 1,905,000
128 3,296,000 $2,416,000 1,920,000
129 3,303,000 $2,425,500 1,935,000
130 3,310,000 $2,435,000 1,950,000
131 3,317,000 $2,444,500 1,965,000
132 3,324,000 $2,454,000 1,980,000
133 3,331,000 $2,463,500 1,995,000
134 3,338,000 $2,473,000 2,010,000
135 3,345,000 $2,482,500 2,025,000
136 3,352,000 $2,492,000 2,040,000
137 3,359,000 $2,501,500 2,055,000
138 3,366,000 $2,511,000 2,070,000
139 3,373,000 $2,520,500 2,085,000
140 3,380,000 $2,530,000 2,100,000
141 3,387,000 $2,539,500 2,115,000
142 3,394,000 $2,549,000 2,130,000
143 3,401,000 $2,558,500 2,145,000
144 3,408,000 $2,568,000 2,160,000
145 3,415,000 $2,577,500 2,175,000
146 3,422,000 $2,587,000 2,190,000
147 3,429,000 $2,596,500 2,205,000
148 3,436,000 $2,606,000 2,220,000
149 3,443,000 $2,615,500 2,235,000
150 3,450,000 $2,625,000 2,250,000
151 3,457,000 $2,634,500 2,265,000
152 3,464,000 $2,644,000 2,280,000
153 3,471,000 $2,653,500 2,295,000
154 3,478,000 $2,663,000 2,310,000
155 3,485,000 $2,672,500 2,325,000
156 3,492,000 $2,682,000 2,340,000
157 3,499,000 $2,691,500 2,355,000
158 3,506,000 $2,701,000 2,370,000
159 3,513,000 $2,710,500 2,385,000
160 3,520,000 $2,720,000 2,400,000
161 3,527,000 $2,729,500 2,415,000
162 3,534,000 $2,739,000 2,430,000
163 3,541,000 $2,748,500 2,445,000
164 3,548,000 $2,758,000 2,460,000
165 3,555,000 $2,767,500 2,475,000
166 3,562,000 $2,777,000 2,490,000
167 3,569,000 $2,786,500 2,505,000
168 3,576,000 $2,796,000 2,520,000
169 3,583,000 $2,805,500 2,535,000
170 3,590,000 $2,815,000 2,550,000
171 3,597,000 $2,824,500 2,565,000
172 3,604,000 $2,834,000 2,580,000
173 3,611,000 $2,843,500 2,595,000
174 3,618,000 $2,853,000 2,610,000
175 3,625,000 $2,862,500 2,625,000
176 3,632,000 $2,872,000 2,640,000
177 3,639,000 $2,881,500 2,655,000
178 3,646,000 $2,891,000 2,670,000
179 3,653,000 $2,900,500 2,685,000
180 3,660,000 $2,910,000 2,700,000
181 3,667,000 $2,919,500 2,715,000
182 3,674,000 $2,929,000 2,730,000
183 3,681,000 $2,938,500 2,745,000
184 3,688,000 $2,948,000 2,760,000
185 3,695,000 $2,957,500 2,775,000
186 3,702,000 $2,967,000 2,790,000
187 3,709,000 $2,976,500 2,805,000
188 3,716,000 $2,986,000 2,820,000
189 3,723,000 $2,995,500 2,835,000
190 3,730,000 $3,005,000 2,850,000
191 3,737,000 $3,014,500 2,865,000
192 3,744,000 $3,024,000 2,880,000
193 3,751,000 $3,033,500 2,895,000
194 3,758,000 $3,043,000 2,910,000
195 3,765,000 $3,052,500 2,925,000
196 3,772,000 $3,062,000 2,940,000
197 3,779,000 $3,071,500 2,955,000
198 3,786,000 $3,081,000 2,970,000
199 3,793,000 $3,090,500 2,985,000
200 3,800,000 $3,100,000 3,000,000
201 3,807,000 $3,109,500 3,015,000
202 3,814,000 $3,119,000 3,030,000
203 3,821,000 $3,128,500 3,045,000
204 3,828,000 $3,138,000 3,060,000
205 3,835,000 $3,147,500 3,075,000
206 3,842,000 $3,157,000 3,090,000
207 3,849,000 $3,166,500 3,105,000
208 3,856,000 $3,176,000 3,120,000
209 3,863,000 $3,185,500 3,135,000
210 3,870,000 $3,195,000 3,150,000
211 3,877,000 $3,204,500 3,165,000
212 3,884,000 $3,214,000 3,180,000
213 3,891,000 $3,223,500 3,195,000
214 3,898,000 $3,233,000 3,210,000
215 3,905,000 $3,242,500 3,225,000
216 3,912,000 $3,252,000 3,240,000
217 3,919,000 $3,261,500 3,255,000
218 3,926,000 $3,271,000 3,270,000
219 3,933,000 $3,280,500 3,285,000
220 3,940,000 $3,290,000 3,300,000
221 3,947,000 $3,299,500 3,315,000
222 3,954,000 $3,309,000 3,330,000
223 3,961,000 $3,318,500 3,345,000
224 3,968,000 $3,328,000 3,360,000
225 3,975,000 $3,337,500 3,375,000
226 3,982,000 $3,347,000 3,390,000
227 3,989,000 $3,356,500 3,405,000
228 3,996,000 $3,366,000 3,420,000
229 4,003,000 $3,375,500 3,435,000
230 4,010,000 $3,385,000 3,450,000
231 4,017,000 $3,394,500 3,465,000
232 4,024,000 $3,404,000 3,480,000
233 4,031,000 $3,413,500 3,495,000
234 4,038,000 $3,423,000 3,510,000
235 4,045,000 $3,432,500 3,525,000
236 4,052,000 $3,442,000 3,540,000
237 4,059,000 $3,451,500 3,555,000
238 4,066,000 $3,461,000 3,570,000
239 4,073,000 $3,470,500 3,585,000
240 4,080,000 $3,480,000 3,600,000
241 4,087,000 $3,489,500 3,615,000
242 4,094,000 $3,499,000 3,630,000
243 4,101,000 $3,508,500 3,645,000
244 4,108,000 $3,518,000 3,660,000
245 4,115,000 $3,527,500 3,675,000
246 4,122,000 $3,537,000 3,690,000
247 4,129,000 $3,546,500 3,705,000
248 4,136,000 $3,556,000 3,720,000
249 4,143,000 $3,565,500 3,735,000
250 4,150,000 $3,575,000 3,750,000
251 4,157,000 $3,584,500 3,765,000
252 4,164,000 $3,594,000 3,780,000
253 4,171,000 $3,603,500 3,795,000
254 4,178,000 $3,613,000 3,810,000
255 4,185,000 $3,622,500 3,825,000
256 4,192,000 $3,632,000 3,840,000
257 4,199,000 $3,641,500 3,855,000
258 4,206,000 $3,651,000 3,870,000
259 4,213,000 $3,660,500 3,885,000
260 4,220,000 $3,670,000 3,900,000
261 4,227,000 $3,679,500 3,915,000
262 4,234,000 $3,689,000 3,930,000
263 4,241,000 $3,698,500 3,945,000
264 4,248,000 $3,708,000 3,960,000
265 4,255,000 $3,717,500 3,975,000
266 4,262,000 $3,727,000 3,990,000
267 4,269,000 $3,736,500 4,005,000
268 4,276,000 $3,746,000 4,020,000
269 4,283,000 $3,755,500 4,035,000
270 4,290,000 $3,765,000 4,050,000
271 4,297,000 $3,774,500 4,065,000
272 4,304,000 $3,784,000 4,080,000
273 4,311,000 $3,793,500 4,095,000
274 4,318,000 $3,803,000 4,110,000
275 4,325,000 $3,812,500 4,125,000
276 4,332,000 $3,822,000 4,140,000
277 4,339,000 $3,831,500 4,155,000
278 4,346,000 $3,841,000 4,170,000
279 4,353,000 $3,850,500 4,185,000
280 4,360,000 $3,860,000 4,200,000
281 4,367,000 $3,869,500 4,215,000
282 4,374,000 $3,879,000 4,230,000
283 4,381,000 $3,888,500 4,245,000
284 4,388,000 $3,898,000 4,260,000
285 4,395,000 $3,907,500 4,275,000
286 4,402,000 $3,917,000 4,290,000
287 4,409,000 $3,926,500 4,305,000
288 4,416,000 $3,936,000 4,320,000
289 4,423,000 $3,945,500 4,335,000
290 4,430,000 $3,955,000 4,350,000
291 4,437,000 $3,964,500 4,365,000
292 4,444,000 $3,974,000 4,380,000
293 4,451,000 $3,983,500 4,395,000
294 4,458,000 $3,993,000 4,410,000
295 4,465,000 $4,002,500 4,425,000
296 4,472,000 $4,012,000 4,440,000
297 4,479,000 $4,021,500 4,455,000
298 4,486,000 $4,031,000 4,470,000
299 4,493,000 $4,040,500 4,485,000
300 4,500,000 $4,050,000 4,500,000
301 4,507,000 $4,059,500 4,515,000
302 4,514,000 $4,069,000 4,530,000
303 4,521,000 $4,078,500 4,545,000
304 4,528,000 $4,088,000 4,560,000
305 4,535,000 $4,097,500 4,575,000
306 4,542,000 $4,107,000 4,590,000
307 4,549,000 $4,116,500 4,605,000
308 4,556,000 $4,126,000 4,620,000
309 4,563,000 $4,135,500 4,635,000
310 4,570,000 $4,145,000 4,650,000
311 4,577,000 $4,154,500 4,665,000
312 4,584,000 $4,164,000 4,680,000
313 4,591,000 $4,173,500 4,695,000
314 4,598,000 $4,183,000 4,710,000
315 4,605,000 $4,192,500 4,725,000
316 4,612,000 $4,202,000 4,740,000
317 4,619,000 $4,211,500 4,755,000
318 4,626,000 $4,221,000 4,770,000
319 4,633,000 $4,230,500 4,785,000
320 4,640,000 $4,240,000 4,800,000
321 4,647,000 $4,249,500 4,815,000
322 4,654,000 $4,259,000 4,830,000
323 4,661,000 $4,268,500 4,845,000
324 4,668,000 $4,278,000 4,860,000
325 4,675,000 $4,287,500 4,875,000
326 4,682,000 $4,297,000 4,890,000
327 4,689,000 $4,306,500 4,905,000
328 4,696,000 $4,316,000 4,920,000
329 4,703,000 $4,325,500 4,935,000
330 4,710,000 $4,335,000 4,950,000
331 4,717,000 $4,344,500 4,965,000
332 4,724,000 $4,354,000 4,980,000
333 4,731,000 $4,363,500 4,995,000
334 4,738,000 $4,373,000 5,010,000
335 4,745,000 $4,382,500 5,025,000
336 4,752,000 $4,392,000 5,040,000
337 4,759,000 $4,401,500 5,055,000
338 4,766,000 $4,411,000 5,070,000
339 4,773,000 $4,420,500 5,085,000
340 4,780,000 $4,430,000 5,100,000
341 4,787,000 $4,439,500 5,115,000
342 4,794,000 $4,449,000 5,130,000
343 4,801,000 $4,458,500 5,145,000
344 4,808,000 $4,468,000 5,160,000
345 4,815,000 $4,477,500 5,175,000
346 4,822,000 $4,487,000 5,190,000
347 4,829,000 $4,496,500 5,205,000
348 4,836,000 $4,506,000 5,220,000
349 4,843,000 $4,515,500 5,235,000
350 4,850,000 $4,525,000 5,250,000
351 4,857,000 $4,534,500 5,265,000
352 4,864,000 $4,544,000 5,280,000
353 4,871,000 $4,553,500 5,295,000
354 4,878,000 $4,563,000 5,310,000
355 4,885,000 $4,572,500 5,325,000
356 4,892,000 $4,582,000 5,340,000
357 4,899,000 $4,591,500 5,355,000
358 4,906,000 $4,601,000 5,370,000
359 4,913,000 $4,610,500 5,385,000
360 4,920,000 $4,620,000 5,400,000
361 4,927,000 $4,629,500 5,415,000
362 4,934,000 $4,639,000 5,430,000
363 4,941,000 $4,648,500 5,445,000
364 4,948,000 $4,658,000 5,460,000
365 4,955,000 $4,667,500 5,475,000
366 4,962,000 $4,677,000 5,490,000
367 4,969,000 $4,686,500 5,505,000
368 4,976,000 $4,696,000 5,520,000
369 4,983,000 $4,705,500 5,535,000
370 4,990,000 $4,715,000 5,550,000
371 4,997,000 $4,724,500 5,565,000
372 5,004,000 $4,734,000 5,580,000
373 5,011,000 $4,743,500 5,595,000
374 5,018,000 $4,753,000 5,610,000
375 5,025,000 $4,762,500 5,625,000
376 5,032,000 $4,772,000 5,640,000
377 5,039,000 $4,781,500 5,655,000
378 5,046,000 $4,791,000 5,670,000
379 5,053,000 $4,800,500 5,685,000
380 5,060,000 $4,810,000 5,700,000
381 5,067,000 $4,819,500 5,715,000
382 5,074,000 $4,829,000 5,730,000
383 5,081,000 $4,838,500 5,745,000
384 5,088,000 $4,848,000 5,760,000
385 5,095,000 $4,857,500 5,775,000
386 5,102,000 $4,867,000 5,790,000
387 5,109,000 $4,876,500 5,805,000
388 5,116,000 $4,886,000 5,820,000
389 5,123,000 $4,895,500 5,835,000
390 5,130,000 $4,905,000 5,850,000
391 5,137,000 $4,914,500 5,865,000
392 5,144,000 $4,924,000 5,880,000
393 5,151,000 $4,933,500 5,895,000
394 5,158,000 $4,943,000 5,910,000
395 5,165,000 $4,952,500 5,925,000
396 5,172,000 $4,962,000 5,940,000
397 5,179,000 $4,971,500 5,955,000
398 5,186,000 $4,981,000 5,970,000
399 5,193,000 $4,990,500 5,985,000
400 5,200,000 $5,000,000 6,000,000
401 5,207,000 $5,009,500 6,015,000
402 5,214,000 $5,019,000 6,030,000
403 5,221,000 $5,028,500 6,045,000
404 5,228,000 $5,038,000 6,060,000
405 5,235,000 $5,047,500 6,075,000
406 5,242,000 $5,057,000 6,090,000
407 5,249,000 $5,066,500 6,105,000
408 5,256,000 $5,076,000 6,120,000
409 5,263,000 $5,085,500 6,135,000
410 5,270,000 $5,095,000 6,150,000
411 5,277,000 $5,104,500 6,165,000
412 5,284,000 $5,114,000 6,180,000
413 5,291,000 $5,123,500 6,195,000
414 5,298,000 $5,133,000 6,210,000
415 5,305,000 $5,142,500 6,225,000
416 5,312,000 $5,152,000 6,240,000
417 5,319,000 $5,161,500 6,255,000
418 5,326,000 $5,171,000 6,270,000
419 5,333,000 $5,180,500 6,285,000
420 5,340,000 $5,190,000 6,300,000
421 5,347,000 $5,199,500 6,315,000
422 5,354,000 $5,209,000 6,330,000
423 5,361,000 $5,218,500 6,345,000
424 5,368,000 $5,228,000 6,360,000
425 5,375,000 $5,237,500 6,375,000
426 5,382,000 $5,247,000 6,390,000
427 5,389,000 $5,256,500 6,405,000
428 5,396,000 $5,266,000 6,420,000
429 5,403,000 $5,275,500 6,435,000
430 5,410,000 $5,285,000 6,450,000
431 5,417,000 $5,294,500 6,465,000
432 5,424,000 $5,304,000 6,480,000
433 5,431,000 $5,313,500 6,495,000
434 5,438,000 $5,323,000 6,510,000
435 5,445,000 $5,332,500 6,525,000
436 5,452,000 $5,342,000 6,540,000
437 5,459,000 $5,351,500 6,555,000
438 5,466,000 $5,361,000 6,570,000
439 5,473,000 $5,370,500 6,585,000
440 5,480,000 $5,380,000 6,600,000
441 5,487,000 $5,389,500 6,615,000
442 5,494,000 $5,399,000 6,630,000
443 5,501,000 $5,408,500 6,645,000
444 5,508,000 $5,418,000 6,660,000
445 5,515,000 $5,427,500 6,675,000
446 5,522,000 $5,437,000 6,690,000
447 5,529,000 $5,446,500 6,705,000
448 5,536,000 $5,456,000 6,720,000
449 5,543,000 $5,465,500 6,735,000
450 5,550,000 $5,475,000 6,750,000
451 5,557,000 $5,484,500 6,765,000
452 5,564,000 $5,494,000 6,780,000
453 5,571,000 $5,503,500 6,795,000
454 5,578,000 $5,513,000 6,810,000
455 5,585,000 $5,522,500 6,825,000
456 5,592,000 $5,532,000 6,840,000
457 5,599,000 $5,541,500 6,855,000
458 5,606,000 $5,551,000 6,870,000
459 5,613,000 $5,560,500 6,885,000
460 5,620,000 $5,570,000 6,900,000
461 5,627,000 $5,579,500 6,915,000
462 5,634,000 $5,589,000 6,930,000
463 5,641,000 $5,598,500 6,945,000
464 5,648,000 $5,608,000 6,960,000
465 5,655,000 $5,617,500 6,975,000
466 5,662,000 $5,627,000 6,990,000
467 5,669,000 $5,636,500 7,005,000
468 5,676,000 $5,646,000 7,020,000
469 5,683,000 $5,655,500 7,035,000
470 5,690,000 $5,665,000 7,050,000
471 5,697,000 $5,674,500 7,065,000
472 5,704,000 $5,684,000 7,080,000
473 5,711,000 $5,693,500 7,095,000
474 5,718,000 $5,703,000 7,110,000
475 5,725,000 $5,712,500 7,125,000
476 5,732,000 $5,722,000 7,140,000
477 5,739,000 $5,731,500 7,155,000
478 5,746,000 $5,741,000 7,170,000
479 5,753,000 $5,750,500 7,185,000
480 5,760,000 $5,760,000 7,200,000
481 5,767,000 $5,769,500 7,215,000
482 5,774,000 $5,779,000 7,230,000
483 5,781,000 $5,788,500 7,245,000
484 5,788,000 $5,798,000 7,260,000
485 5,795,000 $5,807,500 7,275,000
486 5,802,000 $5,817,000 7,290,000
487 5,809,000 $5,826,500 7,305,000
488 5,816,000 $5,836,000 7,320,000
489 5,823,000 $5,845,500 7,335,000
490 5,830,000 $5,855,000 7,350,000
491 5,837,000 $5,864,500 7,365,000
492 5,844,000 $5,874,000 7,380,000
493 5,851,000 $5,883,500 7,395,000
494 5,858,000 $5,893,000 7,410,000
495 5,865,000 $5,902,500 7,425,000
496 5,872,000 $5,912,000 7,440,000
497 5,879,000 $5,921,500 7,455,000
498 5,886,000 $5,931,000 7,470,000
499 5,893,000 $5,940,500 7,485,000
500 5,900,000 $5,950,000 7,500,000
501 5,907,000 $5,959,500 7,515,000
502 5,914,000 $5,969,000 7,530,000
503 5,921,000 $5,978,500 7,545,000
504 5,928,000 $5,988,000 7,560,000
505 5,935,000 $5,997,500 7,575,000
506 5,942,000 $6,007,000 7,590,000
507 5,949,000 $6,016,500 7,605,000
508 5,956,000 $6,026,000 7,620,000
509 5,963,000 $6,035,500 7,635,000
510 5,970,000 $6,045,000 7,650,000
511 5,977,000 $6,054,500 7,665,000
512 5,984,000 $6,064,000 7,680,000
513 5,991,000 $6,073,500 7,695,000
514 5,998,000 $6,083,000 7,710,000
515 6,005,000 $6,092,500 7,725,000
516 6,012,000 $6,102,000 7,740,000
517 6,019,000 $6,111,500 7,755,000
518 6,026,000 $6,121,000 7,770,000
519 6,033,000 $6,130,500 7,785,000
520 6,040,000 $6,140,000 7,800,000
521 6,047,000 $6,149,500 7,815,000
522 6,054,000 $6,159,000 7,830,000
523 6,061,000 $6,168,500 7,845,000
524 6,068,000 $6,178,000 7,860,000
525 6,075,000 $6,187,500 7,875,000
526 6,082,000 $6,197,000 7,890,000
527 6,089,000 $6,206,500 7,905,000
528 6,096,000 $6,216,000 7,920,000
529 6,103,000 $6,225,500 7,935,000
530 6,110,000 $6,235,000 7,950,000
531 6,117,000 $6,244,500 7,965,000
532 6,124,000 $6,254,000 7,980,000
533 6,131,000 $6,263,500 7,995,000
534 6,138,000 $6,273,000 8,010,000
535 6,145,000 $6,282,500 8,025,000
536 6,152,000 $6,292,000 8,040,000
537 6,159,000 $6,301,500 8,055,000
538 6,166,000 $6,311,000 8,070,000
539 6,173,000 $6,320,500 8,085,000
540 6,180,000 $6,330,000 8,100,000
541 6,187,000 $6,339,500 8,115,000
542 6,194,000 $6,349,000 8,130,000
543 6,201,000 $6,358,500 8,145,000
544 6,208,000 $6,368,000 8,160,000
545 6,215,000 $6,377,500 8,175,000
546 6,222,000 $6,387,000 8,190,000
547 6,229,000 $6,396,500 8,205,000
548 6,236,000 $6,406,000 8,220,000
549 6,243,000 $6,415,500 8,235,000
550 6,250,000 $6,425,000 8,250,000
551 6,257,000 $6,434,500 8,265,000
552 6,264,000 $6,444,000 8,280,000
553 6,271,000 $6,453,500 8,295,000
554 6,278,000 $6,463,000 8,310,000
555 6,285,000 $6,472,500 8,325,000
556 6,292,000 $6,482,000 8,340,000
557 6,299,000 $6,491,500 8,355,000
558 6,306,000 $6,501,000 8,370,000
559 6,313,000 $6,510,500 8,385,000
560 6,320,000 $6,520,000 8,400,000
561 6,327,000 $6,529,500 8,415,000
562 6,334,000 $6,539,000 8,430,000
563 6,341,000 $6,548,500 8,445,000
564 6,348,000 $6,558,000 8,460,000
565 6,355,000 $6,567,500 8,475,000
566 6,362,000 $6,577,000 8,490,000
567 6,369,000 $6,586,500 8,505,000
568 6,376,000 $6,596,000 8,520,000
569 6,383,000 $6,605,500 8,535,000
570 6,390,000 $6,615,000 8,550,000
571 6,397,000 $6,624,500 8,565,000
572 6,404,000 $6,634,000 8,580,000
573 6,411,000 $6,643,500 8,595,000
574 6,418,000 $6,653,000 8,610,000
575 6,425,000 $6,662,500 8,625,000
576 6,432,000 $6,672,000 8,640,000
577 6,439,000 $6,681,500 8,655,000
578 6,446,000 $6,691,000 8,670,000
579 6,453,000 $6,700,500 8,685,000
580 6,460,000 $6,710,000 8,700,000
581 6,467,000 $6,719,500 8,715,000
582 6,474,000 $6,729,000 8,730,000
583 6,481,000 $6,738,500 8,745,000
584 6,488,000 $6,748,000 8,760,000
585 6,495,000 $6,757,500 8,775,000
586 6,502,000 $6,767,000 8,790,000
587 6,509,000 $6,776,500 8,805,000
588 6,516,000 $6,786,000 8,820,000
589 6,523,000 $6,795,500 8,835,000
590 6,530,000 $6,805,000 8,850,000
591 6,537,000 $6,814,500 8,865,000
592 6,544,000 $6,824,000 8,880,000
593 6,551,000 $6,833,500 8,895,000
594 6,558,000 $6,843,000 8,910,000
595 6,565,000 $6,852,500 8,925,000
596 6,572,000 $6,862,000 8,940,000
597 6,579,000 $6,871,500 8,955,000
598 6,586,000 $6,881,000 8,970,000
599 6,593,000 $6,890,500 8,985,000
600 6,600,000 $6,900,000 9,000,000
601 6,607,000 $6,909,500 9,015,000
602 6,614,000 $6,919,000 9,030,000
603 6,621,000 $6,928,500 9,045,000
604 6,628,000 $6,938,000 9,060,000
605 6,635,000 $6,947,500 9,075,000
606 6,642,000 $6,957,000 9,090,000
607 6,649,000 $6,966,500 9,105,000
608 6,656,000 $6,976,000 9,120,000
609 6,663,000 $6,985,500 9,135,000
610 6,670,000 $6,995,000 9,150,000
611 6,677,000 $7,004,500 9,165,000
612 6,684,000 $7,014,000 9,180,000
613 6,691,000 $7,023,500 9,195,000
614 6,698,000 $7,033,000 9,210,000
615 6,705,000 $7,042,500 9,225,000
616 6,712,000 $7,052,000 9,240,000
617 6,719,000 $7,061,500 9,255,000
618 6,726,000 $7,071,000 9,270,000
619 6,733,000 $7,080,500 9,285,000
620 6,740,000 $7,090,000 9,300,000
621 6,747,000 $7,099,500 9,315,000
622 6,754,000 $7,109,000 9,330,000
623 6,761,000 $7,118,500 9,345,000
624 6,768,000 $7,128,000 9,360,000
625 6,775,000 $7,137,500 9,375,000
626 6,782,000 $7,147,000 9,390,000
627 6,789,000 $7,156,500 9,405,000
628 6,796,000 $7,166,000 9,420,000
629 6,803,000 $7,175,500 9,435,000
630 6,810,000 $7,185,000 9,450,000
631 6,817,000 $7,194,500 9,465,000
632 6,824,000 $7,204,000 9,480,000
633 6,831,000 $7,213,500 9,495,000
634 6,838,000 $7,223,000 9,510,000
635 6,845,000 $7,232,500 9,525,000
636 6,852,000 $7,242,000 9,540,000
637 6,859,000 $7,251,500 9,555,000
638 6,866,000 $7,261,000 9,570,000
639 6,873,000 $7,270,500 9,585,000
640 6,880,000 $7,280,000 9,600,000
641 6,887,000 $7,289,500 9,615,000
642 6,894,000 $7,299,000 9,630,000
643 6,901,000 $7,308,500 9,645,000
644 6,908,000 $7,318,000 9,660,000
645 6,915,000 $7,327,500 9,675,000
646 6,922,000 $7,337,000 9,690,000
647 6,929,000 $7,346,500 9,705,000
648 6,936,000 $7,356,000 9,720,000
649 6,943,000 $7,365,500 9,735,000
650 6,950,000 $7,375,000 9,750,000
651 6,957,000 $7,384,500 9,765,000
652 6,964,000 $7,394,000 9,780,000
653 6,971,000 $7,403,500 9,795,000
654 6,978,000 $7,413,000 9,810,000
655 6,985,000 $7,422,500 9,825,000
656 6,992,000 $7,432,000 9,840,000
657 6,999,000 $7,441,500 9,855,000
658 7,006,000 $7,451,000 9,870,000
659 7,013,000 $7,460,500 9,885,000
660 7,020,000 $7,470,000 9,900,000
661 7,027,000 $7,479,500 9,915,000
662 7,034,000 $7,489,000 9,930,000
663 7,041,000 $7,498,500 9,945,000
664 7,048,000 $7,508,000 9,960,000
665 7,055,000 $7,517,500 9,975,000
666 7,062,000 $7,527,000 9,990,000
667 7,069,000 $7,536,500 10,005,000
668 7,076,000 $7,546,000 10,020,000
669 7,083,000 $7,555,500 10,035,000
670 7,090,000 $7,565,000 10,050,000
671 7,097,000 $7,574,500 10,065,000
672 7,104,000 $7,584,000 10,080,000
673 7,111,000 $7,593,500 10,095,000
674 7,118,000 $7,603,000 10,110,000
675 7,125,000 $7,612,500 10,125,000
676 7,132,000 $7,622,000 10,140,000
677 7,139,000 $7,631,500 10,155,000
678 7,146,000 $7,641,000 10,170,000
679 7,153,000 $7,650,500 10,185,000
680 7,160,000 $7,660,000 10,200,000
681 7,167,000 $7,669,500 10,215,000
682 7,174,000 $7,679,000 10,230,000
683 7,181,000 $7,688,500 10,245,000
684 7,188,000 $7,698,000 10,260,000
685 7,195,000 $7,707,500 10,275,000
686 7,202,000 $7,717,000 10,290,000
687 7,209,000 $7,726,500 10,305,000
688 7,216,000 $7,736,000 10,320,000
689 7,223,000 $7,745,500 10,335,000
690 7,230,000 $7,755,000 10,350,000
691 7,237,000 $7,764,500 10,365,000
692 7,244,000 $7,774,000 10,380,000
693 7,251,000 $7,783,500 10,395,000
694 7,258,000 $7,793,000 10,410,000
695 7,265,000 $7,802,500 10,425,000
696 7,272,000 $7,812,000 10,440,000
697 7,279,000 $7,821,500 10,455,000
698 7,286,000 $7,831,000 10,470,000
699 7,293,000 $7,840,500 10,485,000
700 7,300,000 $7,850,000 10,500,000
701 7,307,000 $7,859,500 10,515,000
702 7,314,000 $7,869,000 10,530,000
703 7,321,000 $7,878,500 10,545,000
704 7,328,000 $7,888,000 10,560,000
705 7,335,000 $7,897,500 10,575,000
706 7,342,000 $7,907,000 10,590,000
707 7,349,000 $7,916,500 10,605,000
708 7,356,000 $7,926,000 10,620,000
709 7,363,000 $7,935,500 10,635,000
710 7,370,000 $7,945,000 10,650,000
711 7,377,000 $7,954,500 10,665,000
712 7,384,000 $7,964,000 10,680,000
713 7,391,000 $7,973,500 10,695,000
714 7,398,000 $7,983,000 10,710,000
715 7,405,000 $7,992,500 10,725,000
716 7,412,000 $8,002,000 10,740,000
717 7,419,000 $8,011,500 10,755,000
718 7,426,000 $8,021,000 10,770,000
719 7,433,000 $8,030,500 10,785,000
720 7,440,000 $8,040,000 10,800,000
721 7,447,000 $8,049,500 10,815,000
722 7,454,000 $8,059,000 10,830,000
723 7,461,000 $8,068,500 10,845,000
724 7,468,000 $8,078,000 10,860,000
725 7,475,000 $8,087,500 10,875,000
726 7,482,000 $8,097,000 10,890,000
727 7,489,000 $8,106,500 10,905,000
728 7,496,000 $8,116,000 10,920,000
729 7,503,000 $8,125,500 10,935,000
730 7,510,000 $8,135,000 10,950,000
731 7,517,000 $8,144,500 10,965,000
732 7,524,000 $8,154,000 10,980,000
733 7,531,000 $8,163,500 10,995,000
734 7,538,000 $8,173,000 11,010,000
735 7,545,000 $8,182,500 11,025,000
736 7,552,000 $8,192,000 11,040,000
737 7,559,000 $8,201,500 11,055,000
738 7,566,000 $8,211,000 11,070,000
739 7,573,000 $8,220,500 11,085,000
740 7,580,000 $8,230,000 11,100,000
741 7,587,000 $8,239,500 11,115,000
742 7,594,000 $8,249,000 11,130,000
743 7,601,000 $8,258,500 11,145,000
744 7,608,000 $8,268,000 11,160,000
745 7,615,000 $8,277,500 11,175,000
746 7,622,000 $8,287,000 11,190,000
747 7,629,000 $8,296,500 11,205,000
748 7,636,000 $8,306,000 11,220,000
749 7,643,000 $8,315,500 11,235,000
750 7,650,000 $8,325,000 11,250,000
751 7,657,000 $8,334,500 11,265,000
752 7,664,000 $8,344,000 11,280,000
753 7,671,000 $8,353,500 11,295,000
754 7,678,000 $8,363,000 11,310,000
755 7,685,000 $8,372,500 11,325,000
756 7,692,000 $8,382,000 11,340,000
757 7,699,000 $8,391,500 11,355,000
758 7,706,000 $8,401,000 11,370,000
759 7,713,000 $8,410,500 11,385,000
760 7,720,000 $8,420,000 11,400,000
761 7,727,000 $8,429,500 11,415,000
762 7,734,000 $8,439,000 11,430,000
763 7,741,000 $8,448,500 11,445,000
764 7,748,000 $8,458,000 11,460,000
765 7,755,000 $8,467,500 11,475,000
766 7,762,000 $8,477,000 11,490,000
767 7,769,000 $8,486,500 11,505,000
768 7,776,000 $8,496,000 11,520,000
769 7,783,000 $8,505,500 11,535,000
770 7,790,000 $8,515,000 11,550,000
771 7,797,000 $8,524,500 11,565,000
772 7,804,000 $8,534,000 11,580,000
773 7,811,000 $8,543,500 11,595,000
774 7,818,000 $8,553,000 11,610,000
775 7,825,000 $8,562,500 11,625,000
776 7,832,000 $8,572,000 11,640,000
777 7,839,000 $8,581,500 11,655,000
778 7,846,000 $8,591,000 11,670,000
779 7,853,000 $8,600,500 11,685,000
780 7,860,000 $8,610,000 11,700,000
781 7,867,000 $8,619,500 11,715,000
782 7,874,000 $8,629,000 11,730,000
783 7,881,000 $8,638,500 11,745,000
784 7,888,000 $8,648,000 11,760,000
785 7,895,000 $8,657,500 11,775,000
786 7,902,000 $8,667,000 11,790,000
787 7,909,000 $8,676,500 11,805,000
788 7,916,000 $8,686,000 11,820,000
789 7,923,000 $8,695,500 11,835,000
790 7,930,000 $8,705,000 11,850,000
791 7,937,000 $8,714,500 11,865,000
792 7,944,000 $8,724,000 11,880,000
793 7,951,000 $8,733,500 11,895,000
794 7,958,000 $8,743,000 11,910,000
795 7,965,000 $8,752,500 11,925,000
796 7,972,000 $8,762,000 11,940,000
797 7,979,000 $8,771,500 11,955,000
798 7,986,000 $8,781,000 11,970,000
799 7,993,000 $8,790,500 11,985,000
800 8,000,000 $8,800,000 12,000,000
 Opcion/Resultado Alta Media
Prrobabilidad 27% 43%
Fusion Transport S.A. 300,000 140,000
Comprar Competencia 350,000 180,000
Ampliar Instalaciones 275,000 160,000

VE Fusion Transport S.A. 159,200 Desde el punto de vis

VE Comprar Competencia 186,900
VE Ampliar Instalaciones 167,050

MaxiMin
Opcion Elegir el minimo Elegir el Maximo

Fusion Transport S.A. 60,000

Comprar Competencia 50,000 80,000
Ampliar Instalaciones 80,000

Segun el criterio Maximin ampliar la

instalacion es la mejor opcion
 Baja
30%
60,000
50,000
80,000

Desde el punto de vista del riesgo, conviene comprar la competencia

MaxiMax Laplace Rechazo MiniMax

Elegir el Maximo Elegir el Maximo Ponderacion Elegir el Maximo Resultado 1 Resultado 2

300,000 166,667 50,000 40,000

350,000 350,000 193,333 193,333 0 0
275,000 171,667 75,000 20,000

Segun el criterio Maximax comprar Segun el criterio Laplace Segun el criterio Rechazo Minimax com
la competencia es la mejor opcion comprar la competencia es la competencia es la mejor opcion
mejor opcion
 Rechazo MiniMax
Elegir el Elegir el
Resultado 3
Maximo Minimo
20,000 50,000
30,000 30,000 30,000
0 75,000

iterio Rechazo Minimax comprar la

ia es la mejor opcion
a)

0.5 Excelente

Compra Inmediatamente

0 0.5 No Excelente

No Compra

35.2 0.82

0.55 Alta Calidad

64 0.18

>>> Comprueba Calidad

35.2 0.5
 0.45 Baja Calidad

0 0.5

b) Los reditos son 35,2 Euros

La estrategia que debe seguir es comprobar la calidad antes de comprar
 U-Value

100

-100

Excelente
100

No Excelente
-100

Excelente
100
No Excelente
-100
Decision de Comprar
Inmediatamente
Probar antes de Comprar
 Tramontina se dedica a la fabricación de utensilios de cocina, nunca ha realiz
los meses con la misma cantidad de productos, lo que le generó grandes pérd
El gerente de Operaciones está interesado en implementar un sistema de pro
para poder hacerlo, por lo que le ha solicitado a usted realizar una propuesta
partir de los datos históricos que se presentan a continuación:

PERIODO DEMANDA PERIODO DEMANDA

17-Jan 456 18-Jan 450
17-Feb 245 18-Feb 355
17-Mar 243 18-Mar 211
17-Apr 310 18-Apr 299
17-May 419 18-May 294
17-Jun 214 18-Jun 403
17-Jul 497 18-Jul 419
17-Aug 431 18-Aug 284
17-Sep 288 18-Sep 211
17-Oct 435 18-Oct 206
17-Nov 316 18-Nov 401
17-Dec 484 18-Dec 490

a) Utilizando planillas Excel, calculen para cada período (donde sea posible) el pronóstico, error simple, er
error medio y MAD, para cada metodología indicada.

PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=3

PERIODO DEMANDA AT FT ET
17-Jan 456
17-Feb 245
17-Mar 243 314.666666667
17-Apr 310 266 314.666666667 -4.666666666667
17-May 419 324 266 153
17-Jun 214 314.333333333 324 -110
17-Jul 497 376.666666667 314.333333333 182.6666666667
17-Aug 431 380.666666667 376.666666667 54.33333333333
17-Sep 288 405.333333333 380.666666667 -92.66666666667
17-Oct 435 384.666666667 405.333333333 29.66666666667
17-Nov 316 346.333333333 384.666666667 -68.66666666667
17-Dec 484 411.666666667 346.333333333 137.6666666667
18-Jan 450 416.666666667 411.666666667 38.33333333333
18-Feb 355 429.666666667 416.666666667 -61.66666666667
18-Mar 211 338.666666667 429.666666667 -218.6666666667
18-Apr 299 288.333333333 338.666666667 -39.66666666667
18-May 294 268 288.333333333 5.666666666667
18-Jun 403 332 268 135
18-Jul 419 372 332 87
18-Aug 284 368.666666667 372 -88
18-Sep 211 304.666666667 368.666666667 -157.6666666667
18-Oct 206 233.666666667 304.666666667 -98.66666666667
18-Nov 401 272.666666667 233.666666667 167.3333333333
18-Dec 490 365.666666667 272.666666667 217.3333333333
19-Jan TOTAL 267.666666667
E PROMEDIO
12.746031746

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

PERIODO DEMANDA AT FT ET
17-Jan 456
17-Feb 245
17-Mar 243 328.9
17-Apr 310 260.55 328.9 -18.9
17-May 419 310.45 260.55 158.45
17-Jun 214 324.15 310.45 -96.45
17-Jul 497 366.75 324.15 172.85
17-Aug 431 367.3 366.75 64.25
17-Sep 288 421.65 367.3 -79.3
17-Oct 435 381.95 421.65 13.35
17-Nov 316 346.45 381.95 -65.95
17-Dec 484 405.6 346.45 137.55
18-Jan 450 408.3 405.6 44.4
18-Feb 355 439.85 408.3 -53.3
18-Mar 211 357 439.85 -228.85
18-Apr 299 290.6 357 -58
18-May 294 262.55 290.6 3.4
18-Jun 403 323.25 262.55 140.45
18-Jul 419 363.4 323.25 95.75
18-Aug 284 378.85 363.4 -79.4
18-Sep 211 319.75 378.85 -167.85
18-Oct 206 238.95 319.75 -113.75
18-Nov 401 256.75 238.95 162.05
18-Dec 490 345.25 256.75 233.25
19-Jan TOTAL 264
E PROMEDIO
12.5714285714

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,2 y A1 = 350

PERIODO DEMANDA AT FT ET
17-Jan 456 350
17-Feb 245 371.200 350.000 -105.000
17-Mar 243 345.960 371.200 -128.200
17-Apr 310 325.368 345.960 -35.960
17-May 419 322.294 325.368 93.632
17-Jun 214 341.636 322.294 -108.294
17-Jul 497 316.108 341.636 155.364
17-Aug 431 352.287 316.108 114.892
17-Sep 288 368.029 352.287 -64.287
17-Oct 435 352.024 368.029 66.971
17-Nov 316 368.619 352.024 -36.024
17-Dec 484 358.095 368.619 115.381
18-Jan 450 383.276 358.095 91.905
18-Feb 355 396.621 383.276 -28.276
18-Mar 211 388.297 396.621 -185.621
18-Apr 299 352.837 388.297 -89.297
18-May 294 342.070 352.837 -58.837
18-Jun 403 332.456 342.070 60.930
18-Jul 419 346.565 332.456 86.544
18-Aug 284 361.052 346.565 -62.565
18-Sep 211 345.641 361.052 -150.052
18-Oct 206 318.713 345.641 -139.641
18-Nov 401 296.171 318.713 82.287
18-Dec 490 317.136 296.171 193.829
19-Jan 351.709 TOTAL 102.882026335
E PROMEDIO
-5.666

c) Con base en el método normalizado de análisis de errores, indiquen qu

más indicado para calcular pronósticos.
 s de cocina, nunca ha realizado pronósticos de ventas y se abastece todos
que le generó grandes pérdidas económicas durante el 2018.
plementar un sistema de pronósticos, pero no tiene el tiempo suficiente
usted realizar una propuesta, para determinar la demanda de enero 2019 a
ontinuación:

osible) el pronóstico, error simple, error absoluto, además del

PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=5

IETI PERIODO DEMANDA AT FT

17-Jan 456
17-Feb 245
17-Mar 243
4.66666666666669 17-Apr 310
 153 17-May 419 334.6
110 17-Jun 214 286.2 334.6
182.666666666667 17-Jul 497 336.6 286.2
54.3333333333333 17-Aug 431 374.2 336.6
92.6666666666667 17-Sep 288 369.8 374.2
29.6666666666667 17-Oct 435 373 369.8
68.6666666666667 17-Nov 316 393.4 373
137.666666666667 17-Dec 484 390.8 393.4
38.3333333333333 18-Jan 450 394.6 390.8
61.6666666666667 18-Feb 355 408 394.6
218.666666666667 18-Mar 211 363.2 408
39.6666666666667 18-Apr 299 359.8 363.2
5.66666666666669 18-May 294 321.8 359.8
135 18-Jun 403 312.4 321.8
87 18-Jul 419 325.2 312.4
88 18-Aug 284 339.8 325.2
157.666666666667 18-Sep 211 322.2 339.8
98.6666666666667 18-Oct 206 304.6 322.2
167.333333333333 18-Nov 401 304.2 304.6
217.333333333333 18-Dec 490 318.4 304.2
2148.3333333333 19-Jan TOTAL
MAD
102.30158730159

0,25) PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (

IETI 0.4 PERIODO DEMANDA

0.35 17-Jan 456
0.25 17-Feb 245
17-Mar 243
18.9 17-Apr 310
158.45 17-May 419
96.4500000000001 17-Jun 214
172.85 17-Jul 497
64.25 17-Aug 431
79.3 17-Sep 288
13.35 17-Oct 435
65.95 17-Nov 316
137.55 17-Dec 484
44.4 18-Jan 450
53.3 18-Feb 355
 228.85 18-Mar 211
58 18-Apr 299
3.39999999999998 18-May 294
140.45 18-Jun 403
95.75 18-Jul 419
79.4 18-Aug 284
167.85 18-Sep 211
113.75 18-Oct 206
162.05 18-Nov 401
233.25 18-Dec 490
2187.5 19-Jan
MAD
104.16666666667

A1 = 350 SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL

IETI α 0.2 PERIODO DEMANDA

17-Jan 456
105.00 17-Feb 245
128.20 17-Mar 243
35.96 17-Apr 310
93.63 17-May 419
108.29 17-Jun 214
155.36 17-Jul 497
114.89 17-Aug 431
64.29 17-Sep 288
66.97 17-Oct 435
36.02 17-Nov 316
115.38 17-Dec 484
91.90 18-Jan 450
28.28 18-Feb 355
185.62 18-Mar 211
89.30 18-Apr 299
58.84 18-May 294
60.93 18-Jun 403
86.54 18-Jul 419
62.56 18-Aug 284
150.05 18-Sep 211
139.64 18-Oct 206
82.29 18-Nov 401
 193.83 18-Dec 490
2020.5888311256 19-Jan
MAD
96.218515767886

lisis de errores, indiquen qué pronóstico será el

todos
Patrón Horizontal (Considerar cálculo de errores)

nte a) Promedio móvil simple con:

2019 a i. n=3
ii. n=5

b) Promedio móvil ponderado según:

i. 0,4 – 0,35 – 0,25
ii. 0,6–0,3–0,1

c) Suavizamiento exponencial simple según:

α=0,2 y A1 = 350
α=0,3

OR SIMPLE n=5 GRAFICO PRONOSTI

ET IETI

Cha
600
DEMAND
500

400

300

200
 Cha
600
DEMAND
500

400
-120.6 120.6
210.8 210.8 300

94.4 94.4 200

-86.2 86.2
100
65.2 65.2
-57 57 0

43878
43907
43938

43999

44091

44152
43847

43968

44029
44060

44121
90.6 90.6
59.2 59.2
-39.6 39.6
-197 197
-64.2 64.2
-65.8 65.8
81.2 81.2
106.6 106.6
-41.2 41.2
-128.8 128.8
-116.2 116.2
96.4 96.4
185.8 185.8
73.6 1906.8
E PROMEDIO MAD
3.8736842105 100.357894737

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

AT FT ET IETI 0.6
0.3
0.1
371.4
250.9 371.4 -61.4 61.4 600
280.7 250.9 168.1 168.1
333.1 280.7 -66.7 66.7 500

365.3 333.1 163.9 163.9 400

320.6 365.3 65.7 65.7
456.3 320.6 -32.6 32.6 300
388.5 456.3 -21.3 21.3
200
334.9 388.5 -72.5 72.5
404.2 334.9 149.1 149.1 100
379.8 404.2 45.8 45.8
0
460.9 379.8 -24.8 24.8 7 8 7
84 87 90
43 43 43 43
 100

0
847 878 907
397.6 460.9 -249.9 249.9 43 43 43 43
306.2 397.6 -98.6 98.6
245.7 306.2 -12.2 12.2
307.9 245.7 157.3 157.3
339.2 307.9 111.1 111.1
395.9 339.2 -55.2 55.2
357.7 395.9 -184.9 184.9
254.3 357.7 -151.7 151.7
228.5 254.3 146.7 146.7
292.9 228.5 261.5 261.5
TOTAL 237.4 2301
E PROMEDIO MAD
11.304761905 109.5714286

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,3

AT FT ET IETI α 0.3

350.500 SU
318.850 350.500 -107.500 107.50
296.095 318.850 -8.850 8.85 600
300.267 296.095 122.905 122.91
500
335.887 300.267 -86.267 86.27
299.321 335.887 161.113 161.11 400
358.624 299.321 131.679 131.68
380.337 358.624 -70.624 70.62 300
352.636 380.337 54.663 54.66
200
377.345 352.636 -36.636 36.64
358.942 377.345 106.655 106.65 100
396.459 358.942 91.058 91.06
0
412.521 396.459 -41.459 41.46 7 8 7
84 87 90
395.265 412.521 -201.521 201.52 43 43 43 43
339.985 395.265 -96.265 96.26
327.690 339.985 -45.985 45.99
317.583 327.690 75.310 75.31
343.208 317.583 101.417 101.42
365.946 343.208 -59.208 59.21
341.362 365.946 -154.946 154.95
302.253 341.362 -135.362 135.36
273.377 302.253 98.747 98.75
311.664 273.377 216.623 216.62
TOTAL 223.04714014 2097.293987
E PROMEDIO MAD
10.621292388 99.87114222
 b) Grafiquen los datos e indiquen qué tipo de patrón de ventas se observa

PMS
GRAFICO PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=3

Chart Title
DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
 Chart Title
DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
43999

44091

44152

43848
43879
43908
43939
43969
44000
44030
44061
44092
44122
44153

43849
43968

44029
44060

44121

44182

44183

PMP
GRAFICO PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
7 8 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 1 2 2 8 9 8 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 9
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 06 09 12 15 18 84 87 90 93 96 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 84
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43
100

0
847 878 907 938 968 999 029 060 091 121 152 182 848 879 908 939 969 000 030 061 092 122 153 183 849
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
GRAFICO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,2 y A1 = 350

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,2 y A1 = 350

DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
7 8 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 1 2 2 8 9 8 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 9
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 06 09 12 15 18 84 87 90 93 96 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 84
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43
de ventas se observa.

PMS
GRAFICO PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=5

PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=5

600
DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
500

400

300
 PRONOSTICO ERROR SIMPLE n=5
600
DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
500

400

300

200

100

0
43847
43878

43938
43968
43999

44060
44091

44152
44182
43848
43879
43908
43939

44000

44061
44092

44153
44183
43849
43907

44029

44121

43969

44030

44122

PMP
GRAFICO PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO (0,4 - 0,35 - 0,25)

DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
7 8 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 1 2 2 8 9 8 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 9
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 06 09 12 15 18 84 87 90 93 96 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 84
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43
200

100

0
7 8 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 1 2 2 8 9 8 9 9 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 9
84 87 90 93 96 99 02 06 09 12 15 18 84 87 90 93 96 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 84
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
GRAFICO SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,3

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE α=0,3

DEMANDA PRONOSTICO
600

500

400

300

200

100

0
847 878 907 938 968 999 029 060 091 121 152 182 848 879 908 939 969 000 030 061 092 122 153 183
43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43
)

2 3 3 9
12 415 418 384
4 4 4
 2 3 3 9
12 415 418 384
4 4 4

LE α=0,3

MPLE α=0,3
O

69 000 030 061 092 122 153 183 849

44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43