MERCADO ELECTRICO - CHUMBIVILCAS (Clientes) CO

año BT5B BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total año

2024 3,478 4 4 12 12 24 3,534 2024
2025 3,614 4 4 12 12 25 3,672 2025
2026 3,755 4 4 13 13 26 3,816 2026
2027 4,207 4 4 13 13 27 4,270 2027
2028 4,372 5 5 14 14 28 4,437 2028
2029 4,543 5 5 15 15 29 4,610 2029
2030 4,720 5 5 15 15 30 4,791 2030
2031 4,905 5 5 16 16 31 4,978 2031
2032 5,097 5 5 16 16 33 5,173 2032
2033 5,296 6 6 17 17 34 5,375 2033
2034 5,503 6 6 18 18 35 5,585 2034
2035 5,718 6 6 18 18 37 5,803 2035
2036 5,942 6 6 19 19 38 6,030 2036
2037 6,174 7 7 20 20 40 6,266 2037
2038 6,415 7 7 21 21 41 6,511 2038
2039 6,666 7 7 21 21 43 6,766 2039
2040 6,927 7 7 22 22 44 7,030 2040
2041 7,198 8 8 23 23 46 7,305 2041
2042 7,479 8 8 24 24 48 7,591 2042
2043 7,771 8 8 25 25 50 7,888 2043
2044 8,075 9 9 26 26 52 8,196 2044
2045 8,391 9 9 27 27 54 8,516 2045
2046 8,719 9 9 28 28 56 8,849 2046

22.1666 22.1666 44.3332

23.0333 23.0333 46.0666 3,764
23.9339 23.9339 47.8678
24.8697 24.8697 49.7394
25.8421 25.8421 51.6842
26.8525 26.8525 53.7051

3,486
3,622
3,764
 CONSUMO - CHUMBIVILCAS (kwh)
BT5B BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total
1,530,947 1,155 6,573 39,312 33,467 117,342 1,728,795
1,575,344 1,189 6,763 40,452 34,437 120,745 1,778,930
1,621,029 1,223 6,959 41,625 35,436 124,246 1,830,519 0
1,802,294 1,259 7,161 42,832 36,463 127,849 2,017,859 1
1,854,561 1,295 7,369 44,074 37,521 131,557 2,076,377 2
1,908,343 1,333 7,583 45,352 38,609 135,372 2,136,592 3
1,963,685 1,371 7,803 46,667 39,729 139,298 2,198,553 4
2,020,632 1,411 8,029 48,021 40,881 143,338 2,262,311 5
2,079,230 1,452 8,262 49,413 42,066 147,494 2,327,918 6
2,139,528 1,494 8,501 50,846 43,286 151,772 2,395,427 7
2,201,574 1,537 8,748 52,321 44,542 156,173 2,464,895 8
2,265,420 1,582 9,001 53,838 45,833 160,702 2,536,377 9
2,331,117 1,628 9,262 55,399 47,162 165,362 2,609,932 10
2,398,719 1,675 9,531 57,006 48,530 170,158 2,685,620 11
2,468,282 1,724 9,807 58,659 49,938 175,093 2,763,503 12
2,539,862 1,774 10,092 60,360 51,386 180,170 2,843,644 13
2,613,518 1,825 10,385 62,111 52,876 185,395 2,926,110 14
2,689,310 1,878 10,686 63,912 54,409 190,772 3,010,967 15
2,767,300 1,932 10,996 65,765 55,987 196,304 3,098,285 16
2,847,552 1,989 11,314 67,673 57,611 201,997 3,188,136 17
2,930,131 2,046 11,643 69,635 59,282 207,855 3,280,591 18
3,015,105 2,106 11,980 71,655 61,001 213,883 3,375,729 19
3,102,543 2,167 12,328 73,733 62,770 220,085 3,473,625 20
 MAXIMA DEMANDA - CHUMBIVILCAS (KW)
año BT5B BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total
2024 437 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2025 450 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2026 462 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2027 475 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2028 488 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2029 502 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2030 516 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2031 531 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2032 545 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2033 561 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2034 576 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2035 593 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2036 609 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2037 626 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2038 644 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2039 662 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2040 680 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2041 699 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2042 719 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2043 739 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2044 760 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2045 781 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2046 803 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
 MAXIMA DEMANDA - CHUMBIVILCAS
BT5B (Ciudad
año BT5B (SER) BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total
Ilave)
2020 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2021 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2022 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 4,957,407
2023 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
2024 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 5,969,081

Maxima Demanda - chumbivilcas

6,200,000

6,000,000 5,969,081
f(x) = 505837.27 x + 3439895.03
5,800,000 R² = 1
5,600,000

5,400,000

5,200,000

5,000,000 4,957,407

4,800,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas

6200000

6000000 5969081.38
f(x) = 3759750.53439187 exp( 0.092855126681265 x )
5800000 R² = 0.998560878116643
5600000 5473090.85
5400000

5200000

5000000 4957406.84

4800000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Maxim
Maxima Demanda - IChumbivilcas 6,200,000
6,200,000
6,000,000
5,969,081
6,000,000
f(x) = 1980469.44579947 ln(x) + 2781638.76951298 5,800,000
5,800,000 R² = 1
5,600,000
5,600,000
5,400,000
5,400,000
5,200,000
5,200,000
5,000,000
5,000,000 4,957,407
4,800,000
4,800,000 2020 20
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
 VENTA DE ENERGÍA - SISTEMA ELECTRICO CHUMBIVILCAS
Periodo Real Lineal Tasa Ec. Potencial Tasa Ec. Logaritmica

1 2020 - 3,505,837 3,000,000 3,000,000

2 2021 - 4,011,674 14.43% 3,857,223 28.57% 4,386,294
3 2022 4,957,407 4,517,511 12.61% 4,468,126 15.84% 5,197,225
4 2023 5,473,091 5,023,348 11.20% 4,959,389 10.99% 5,772,589
5 2024 5,969,081 5,529,185 10.07% 5,377,343 8.43% 6,218,876
6 2025 6,142,060 6,035,022 9.15% 5,744,853 6.83% 6,583,519
7 2026 6,320,052 6,540,859 8.38% 6,075,105 5.75% 6,891,820
8 2027 6,503,202 7,046,696 7.73% 6,376,490 4.96% 7,158,883
9 2028 6,691,660 7,552,533 7.18% 6,654,717 4.36% 7,394,449
10 2029 6,885,579 8,058,370 6.70% 6,913,871 3.89% 7,605,170
11 2030 7,085,117 8,564,207 6.28% 7,156,987 3.52% 7,795,791
12 2031 7,290,438 9,070,044 5.91% 7,386,392 3.21% 7,969,813
13 2032 7,501,709 9,575,881 5.58% 7,603,913 2.94% 8,129,899
14 2033 7,719,102 10,081,718 5.28% 7,811,012 2.72% 8,278,115
15 2034 7,942,796 10,587,555 5.02% 8,008,883 2.53% 8,416,100
16 2035 8,172,971 11,093,392 4.78% 8,198,514 2.37% 8,545,177
17 2036 8,409,818 11,599,229 4.56% 8,380,734 2.22% 8,666,427
18 2037 8,653,527 12,105,066 4.36% 8,556,242 2.09% 8,780,744
19 2038 8,904,299 12,610,903 4.18% 8,725,640 1.98% 8,888,878
20 2039 9,162,339 13,116,740 4.01% 8,889,447 1.88% 8,991,465
21 2040 9,427,856 13,622,577 3.86% 9,048,112 1.78% 9,089,045
22 2041 9,701,067 14,128,414 3.71% 9,202,032 1.70% 9,182,085
23 2042 9,982,196 14,634,251 3.58% 9,351,554 1.62% 9,270,988
24 2043 10,271,472 15,140,088 3.46% 9,496,987 1.56% 9,356,108
25 2044 10,569,131 15,645,925 3.34% 9,638,608 1.49% 9,437,752
26 2045 10,875,416 16,151,762 3.23% 9,776,662 1.43% 9,516,193
5.25% 2.90%

log 6490.878432 pot 3000000

poli 3574764.3 line 3505837
exp 4389407.978

Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas

6,200,000 6,200,000
5,969,081 5,969,081
6,000,000 6,000,000
f(x) = 505837.27 x + 3439895.03 f(x) = 3325044.83046836 x^0.363549212730181
5,800,000 R² = 1 5,800,000 R² = 1
5,600,000 5,600,000

5,400,000 5,400,000

5,200,000 5,200,000

5,000,000 4,957,407 5,000,000 4,957,407

4,800,000 4,800,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
CAS
Tasa Ec. Tasa Prom.

9.73%
10.40%
9.06%
5.86%
4.68%
3.88%
3.29%
2.85%
2.51%
2.23%
2.01%
1.82% 2.90%
1.67%
1.53%
1.42%
1.32%
1.23%
1.15%
1.09%
1.02%
0.97%
0.92%
0.87%
0.83%
2.06%

bivilcas

5,969,081
x^0.363549212730181

2023 2024
 Principales Factores Considerados

Fuente de
Item Variables Importantes Datos
Informacion
1 Nº de clientes 11,412
2 Crecimiento anual de Clientes (%) 3.91%
3 Energía Anual (MWh) 5,969 Reporte de
Electro Sur
4 Crecimiento anual de Energía (%) 2.90% este
5 Máxima Demanda (kW) 3,866
6 Crecimiento anual de Potencia (%) 2.80%
 MERCADO ELECTRICO - CHUMBIVILCAS MERCAD
año BT5B (SER) BT5B (Ciudad BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total Periodo Real
Ilave)
2020 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 8,786 1 2020 8,786
2021 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 2 2021 9,215
2022 #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 3 2022 10,098
2023 #REF! #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 4 2023 10,656
2024 #REF! #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 5 2024 11,412
6 2025 11,858
7 2026 12,322
Mercado Electrico - Chumbivilcas
8,900
8 2027 12,804
8,786
8,800 9 2028 13,304
8,700 f(x) = 8786 10 2029 13,825
R² = 0
8,600 11 2030 14,365
8,500 12 2031 14,927
8,400 13 2032 15,511
8,300 14 2033 16,117
8,200 15 2034 16,747
8,100 16 2035 17,402
8,000 17 2036 18,083
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
18 2037 18,790
f(x) = NaN exp( NaN x ) 19 2038 19,525
R² = NaN Mercado Electrico - Chumbivilcas
20 2039 20,288
8,900
8,786 21 2040 21,081
8,800
22 2041 21,906
8,700
23 2042 22,762
8,600
24 2043 23,652
8,500
25 2044 24,577
8,400
26 2045 25,538
8,300
8,200
8,100
8,000 Poli
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

f(x) = NaN ln(x) NaN Mercado Electrico - Chumbivilcas

R² = NaN Mercado Electrico - Chumbivilcas
8,900
8,900 8,786
8,786 8,800
8,800 f(x) = 8786
8,700
8,700 R² = 0
8,600
8,600
8,500
8,500
8,400
8,400
8,300
8,300
8,200
8,200
8,100
8,100
8,000
8,000 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
 MERCADO ELÉCTRICO - SISTEMA ELECTRICO CHUMBIVILCAS

Polinomica Tasa Ec. Exponencial Tasa Ec. Lineal Tasa Ec. Tasa Prom.

8,742 8,738 8,695

9,341 6.85% 9,342 6.91% 9,364 4.88%
9,986 6.91% 9,987 6.91% 10,033 9.58% 6.91%
10,679 6.94% 10,677 6.91% 10,703 5.53%
11,419 6.93% 11,415 6.91% 11,372 7.09%
12,206 6.89% 12,204 6.91% 12,041 5.89%
13,040 6.83% 13,047 6.91% 12,711 5.56%
13,920 6.75% 13,948 6.91% 13,380 5.27%
14,848 6.67% 14,912 6.91% 14,049 5.00%
15,823 6.57% 15,942 6.91% 14,719 4.76%
16,845 6.46% 17,043 6.91% 15,388 4.55%
17,914 6.34% 18,220 6.91% 16,057 4.35%
19,029 6.23% 19,479 6.91% 16,726 4.17%
20,192 6.11% 20,825 6.91% 17,396 4.00% 3.91%
21,402 5.99% 22,263 6.91% 18,065 3.85%
22,659 5.87% 23,801 6.91% 18,734 3.70%
23,963 5.75% 25,445 6.91% 19,404 3.57%
25,313 5.64% 27,203 6.91% 20,073 3.45%
26,711 5.52% 29,082 6.91% 20,742 3.33%
28,156 5.41% 31,091 6.91% 21,412 3.23%
29,648 5.30% 33,239 6.91% 22,081 3.13%
31,187 5.19% 35,536 6.91% 22,750 3.03%
32,772 5.08% 37,990 6.91% 23,419 2.94%
34,405 4.98% 40,615 6.91% 24,089 2.86%
36,085 4.88% 43,421 6.91% 24,758 2.78%
37,812 4.79% 46,420 6.91% 25,427 2.70%
5.87% 6.91% 3.91%

8741.8 Log 8500.9

Pot 8560.6
f(x) = NaN x^NaN
ectrico - Chumbivilcas R² = NaN Mercado Electrico - Chunbivilcas
8,900
8,786
8,800
8,700
8,600
8,500
8,400
8,300
8,200
8,100
8,000
2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
 MAXIMA DEMANDA - CHUMBIVILCAS MA
año BT5B (SER) BT5B (Ciudad BT5A BT4 MT2 MT3 MT4 Total Periodo
Ilave)
2020 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 1 2020
2021 #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 2,287 2 2021
2022 #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! 2,411 3 2022
2023 #REF! #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! 4 2023
2024 #REF! #REF! #REF! ### #REF! #REF! #REF! 3,866 5 2024
6 2025
7 2026
8 2027
9 2028
Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas
10 2029
4,000 3,866
11 2030
3,500 f(x) = 554.943150213815 x + 1004.70485384504 12 2031
R² = 0.932606467869342
13 2032
3,000
14 2033
2,411
2,500 2,287 15 2034
2,000
16 2035
17 2036
1,500 18 2037
1,000 19 2038
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 20 2039
21 2040
Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas 22 2041
4,000 3,866 23 2042
f(x) = 1503.02574985186 exp( 0.183694082885242 x ) 24 2043
3,500
R² = 0.942675469846892 25 2044
3,000 26 2045
27 2046
2,500 2,411
2,287

2,000

1,500

1,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas

Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas
4,000
4,000 3,866
f(x) = 200.966908 x² − 880.534765 x + 32
3,500 R² = 1
3,500 f(x) = 1770.75984611071 ln(x) + 846.947437176342
R² = 0.857946909678347 3,000
3,000
2,500 2,411
2,287
2,500 2,411
2,287
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
 MAXIMA DEMANDA - SISTEMA ELECTRICO CHUMBIVILCAS

Real Potencial Tasa Ec. Logaritmica Tasa Ec. Lineal Tasa Ec.

- 1,427 874 1,560

2,287 2,139 49.90% 2,069 136.74% 2,111
2,411 2,711 26.72% 2,768 33.79% 2,662
3,186 3,206 18.29% 3,264 17.92% 3,213 32.13%
3,866 3,653 13.92% 3,649 11.79% 3,764 21.33%
3,974 4,063 11.24% 3,963 8.61% 4,315 14.64%
4,085 4,446 9.42% 4,229 6.71% 4,866 12.77%
4,199 4,806 8.11% 4,459 5.44% 5,417 11.32%
4,317 5,149 7.12% 4,662 4.55% 5,968 10.17%
4,438 5,476 6.35% 4,844 3.90% 6,520 9.23%
4,562 5,789 5.72% 5,008 3.39% 7,071 8.45%
4,690 6,091 5.21% 5,158 3.00% 7,622 7.79%
4,821 6,382 4.79% 5,296 2.68% 8,173 7.23%
4,956 6,664 4.42% 5,424 2.41% 8,724 6.74%
5,095 6,938 4.11% 5,543 2.19% 9,275 6.32%
5,238 7,205 3.84% 5,654 2.01% 9,826 5.94%
5,384 7,465 3.60% 5,758 1.85% 10,377 5.61%
5,535 7,718 3.39% 5,857 1.71% 10,928 5.31%
5,690 7,966 3.21% 5,950 1.59% 11,479 5.04%
5,849 8,208 3.04% 6,039 1.49% 12,030 4.80%
6,013 8,445 2.89% 6,123 1.39% 12,581 4.58%
6,181 8,678 2.75% 6,203 1.31% 13,133 4.38%
6,354 8,906 2.63% 6,280 1.24% 13,684 4.20%
6,532 9,130 2.52% 6,353 1.17% 14,235 4.03%
6,715 9,350 2.41% 6,423 1.11% 14,786 3.87%
6,903 9,567 2.32% 6,491 1.05% 15,337 3.73%
7,096 9,780 2.23% 6,556 1.00% 15,888 3.59%
4.72% 2.80% 6.96%

LOG 6490.878432 POT 9566.837745

POLI 2253.79 EXP 1806.091337

Maxima Demanda - Chumbivilcas Maxima Demanda - Chumbilcas

3,866 4,000 3,866
= 200.966908 x² − 880.534765 x + 3244.0504
1 3,500 f(x) = 1423.84165152191 x^0.587824084340391
R² = 0.872180303493882
3,000

2,411 2,500 2,411

2,287 2,287

2,000

1,500

1,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Tasa Prom.

26.73%

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2.80% 7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20