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Según la gráfica, se puede apreciar que los datos tienen una marcada tendencia. Para pronosticar se puede utilizar co
promedio movil simple
2). n=2
Mes Ventas Yt EMC DAM
Enero 7000
Febrero 8000
Marzo 8000 7,500.00 250,000.00 500.00
Abril 8000 8,000.00 0.00 0.00
Mayo 9000 8,000.00 1,000,000.00 1,000.00
Junio 11000 8,500.00 6,250,000.00 2,500.00
Julio 11000 10,000.00 1,000,000.00 1,000.00
Agosto 11000 11,000.00 0.00 0.00
Septiembre 15000 11,000.00 16,000,000.00 4,000.00
Octubre 17000 13,000.00 16,000,000.00 4,000.00
Noviembre 19000 16,000.00 9,000,000.00 3,000.00
Diciembre 13000 18,000.00 25,000,000.00 5,000.00
ENERO 16,000.00 7,450,000.00 2,100.00
n=4
Mes Ventas Yt EMC DAM
Enero 7000
Febrero 8000
Marzo 8000
Abril 8000
Mayo 9000 7,750.00 1,562,500.00 1,250.00
Junio 11000 8,250.00 7,562,500.00 2,750.00
Julio 11000 9,000.00 4,000,000.00 2,000.00
Agosto 11000 9,750.00 1,562,500.00 1,250.00
Septiembre 15000 10,500.00 20,250,000.00 4,500.00
Octubre 17000 12,000.00 25,000,000.00 5,000.00
Noviembre 19000 13,500.00 30,250,000.00 5,500.00
Diciembre 13000 15,500.00 6,250,000.00 2,500.00
ENERO 16,000.00 12,054,687.50 3,093.75
n= 5 Mt
Mes Ventas Mt M't at=2Mt-M't bt=2/n-1 (Mt-M't)
Enero 7000
Febrero 8000
Marzo 8000
Abril 8000
Mayo 9000
Junio 11000 8,000.00
Julio 11000 8,800.00
Agosto 11000 9,400.00
Septiembre 15000 10,000.00
Octubre 17000 11,400.00 9,520.00
Noviembre 19000 13,000.00 10,520.00 15,480.00 1,240.00
Diciembre 13000 14,600.00 11,680.00 17,520.00 1,460.00
ENERO
FEBRERO
4). El mejor método de pronóstico es el promedio móvil simple con n=2.
11,442.81 20,557.19
NC 97% )
a 0.03
Probabilidad 0.985
z = 2.170090378 2.170090378
t = 2.878928883 2.490663933
Eje rc ic io de aplic ac ió n de l métod
n=5
Mes Ventas Yt EMC DAM
Enero 7000
Febrero 8000
Marzo 8000
Abril 8000
Mayo 9000
Junio 11000 8,000.00 9,000,000.00 3,000.00
Julio 11000 8,800.00 4,840,000.00 2,200.00
Agosto 11000 9,400.00 2,560,000.00 1,600.00
Septiembre 15000 10,000.00 25,000,000.00 5,000.00
Octubre 17000 11,400.00 31,360,000.00 5,600.00
Noviembre 19000 13,000.00 36,000,000.00 6,000.00
Diciembre 13000 14,600.00 2,560,000.00 1,600.00
ENERO 15,000.00 15,902,857.14 3,571.43
p=1
Yt+p= at+bt p DAM EMC
8,750.00 250.00 62,500.00
8,000.00 3,000.00 9,000,000.00
9,250.00 1,750.00 3,062,500.00
12,250.00 1,250.00 1,562,500.00
12,500.00 2,500.00 6,250,000.00
11,000.00 6,000.00 36,000,000.00
16,000.00 3,000.00 9,000,000.00
20,500.00 7,500.00 56,250,000.00
21,000.00 3,156.25 15,148,437.50
23,000.00
p=1
Yt+p= at+bt p MAD EMC
SE
9,000.00 2,000.00 4,000,000.00 LS LI 4,199.13
10,888.89 111.11 12,345.68
12,333.33 2,666.67 7,111,111.11
12,555.56 4,444.44 19,753,086.42
14,555.56 4,444.44 19,753,086.42
17,888.89 4,888.89 23,901,234.57
21,888.89 3,092.59 12,421,810.70 21,974.63 21,803.15
24,333.33 70,530,864.20
p=1
Yt+p= at+bt p DAM EMC
11,520.83 3,479.17
12,375.00 4,625.00 21,390,625.0000000
14,812.50 4,187.50 17,535,156.2500000
16,937.50 3,937.50 15,503,906.2500000
19,875.00 4,250.00 18,143,229.17
21,625.00
p=1
Yt+p= at+bt p DAM EMC
16,720.00 3,720.00 13,838,400.00
18,980.00 3,720.00 13,838,400.00
20440
DAM 2,100.00
𝜶=𝟏−𝑵𝑪
, gl = #Observaciones - 1)
icio de aplic ac ió n de l mé todo de Prome dios Móviles
Ve ntas Me s Ve ntas
7000 Julio 11000
8000 Agosto 11000
8000 Septiembre 15000
8000 Octubre 17000
9000 Noviembre 19000
11000 Diciembre 13000
ˆ
M t Yt 1
Yt Yt 1 Yt 2 Yt
n
M t
M t M t 1 M t 2 M t n
ˆ
M t Yt 1
Yt Yt 1 Yt 2 Yt
n
M t
M t M t 1 M t 2 M t n
n
at 2 M t M t
2
bt M t M t
n 1
Yˆt p at bt p
NC P Z
0.92 0.96 1.750686071
Yt 2 Yt n 1
n
t 2 M t n 1
Yt 2 Yt n 1
n
t 2 M t n 1
n
n= 2 Mt PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE p=1
Mes Ventas Mt M't at=2Mt-M't bt=2/n-1 (Mt-M't) Yt+p= at+bt p DAM
Enero 112.7
Febrero 112.4
Marzo 116.4 112.55
Abril 108.3 114.40 113.48 115.33 1.85
Mayo 118.4 112.35 113.38 111.33 -2.05 117.18 1.23
Junio 116.2 113.35 112.85 113.85 1.00 109.28 6.93
Julio 120.4 117.30 115.33 119.28 3.95 114.85 5.55
Agosto 100.4 118.30 117.80 118.80 1.00 123.23 22.83
Septiembr
114.8
e 110.40 114.35 106.45 -7.90 119.80 5.00
Octubre 124.8 107.60 109.00 106.20 -2.80 98.55 26.25
Noviembr
118.5
e 119.80 113.70 125.90 12.20 103.40 15.10
Diciembre 106.8
121.65 120.73 122.58 1.85 138.10 31.30
109.2 112.65 117.15 108.15 -9.00 124.43 15.23
106.5 108.00 110.33 105.68 -4.65 99.15 7.35
118.9 107.85 107.93 107.78 -0.15 101.03 17.88
102.4 112.70 110.28 115.13 4.85 107.63 5.22
117 110.65 111.68 109.63 -2.05 119.98 2.98
117.7 109.70 110.18 109.23 -0.95 107.58 10.13
111.2 117.35 113.53 121.18 7.65 108.28 2.93
92.4 114.45 115.90 113.00 -2.90 128.83 36.43
110.6 101.80 108.13 95.48 -12.65 110.10 0.50
113.1 101.50 101.65 101.35 -0.30 82.83 30.28
115.4 111.85 106.68 117.03 10.35 101.05 14.35
100.2 114.25 113.05 115.45 2.40 127.38 27.18
91.1 107.80 111.03 104.58 -6.45 117.85 26.75
95.2 95.65 101.73 89.58 -12.15 98.13 2.93
103.5 93.15 94.40 91.90 -2.50 77.43 26.08
97 99.35 96.25 102.45 6.20 89.40 7.60
102.1 100.25 99.80 100.70 0.90 108.65 6.55
105.5 99.55 99.90 99.20 -0.70 101.60 3.90
102.7 103.80 101.68 105.93 4.25 98.50 4.20
84.2
104.10 103.95 104.25 0.30 110.18 25.98
104.9 93.45 98.78 88.13 -10.65 104.55 0.35
104.4 94.55 94.00 95.10 1.10 77.48 26.93
109.2 104.65 99.60 109.70 10.10 96.20 13.00
99.9 106.80 105.73 107.88 2.15 119.80 19.90
105.7 104.55 105.68 103.43 -2.25 110.03 4.33
102.1 102.80 103.68 101.93 -1.75 101.18 0.92
106.3 103.90 103.35 104.45 1.10 100.18 6.12
115.8 104.20 104.05 104.35 0.30 105.55 10.25
111.6 111.05 107.63 114.48 6.85 104.65 6.95
114.3 113.70 112.38 115.03 2.65 121.33 7.03
119.5 112.95 113.33 112.58 -0.75 117.68 1.83
91.7 116.90 114.93 118.88 3.95 111.83 20.13
115.8 105.60 111.25 99.95 -11.30 122.83 7.03
125 103.75 104.68 102.83 -1.85 88.65 36.35
115.5 120.40 112.08 128.73 16.65 100.98 14.53
106.9 120.25 120.33 120.18 -0.15 145.38 38.48
110.5 111.20 115.73 106.68 -9.05 120.03 9.53
114.2 108.70 109.95 107.45 -2.50 97.63 16.58
121.3 112.35 110.53 114.18 3.65 104.95 16.35
112.4 117.75 115.05 120.45 5.40 117.83 5.42
117.8 116.85 117.30 116.40 -0.90 125.85 8.05
123.8 115.10 115.98 114.23 -1.75 115.50 8.30
126.5 120.80 117.95 123.65 5.70 112.48 14.03
96.5 125.15 122.98 127.33 4.35 129.35 32.85
120 111.50 118.33 104.68 -13.65 131.68 11.68
123.7 108.25 109.88 106.63 -3.25 91.03 32.68
122 121.85 115.05 128.65 13.60 103.38 18.63
112 122.85 122.35 123.35 1.00 142.25 30.25
112.9 117.00 119.93 114.08 -5.85 124.35 11.45
113.9 112.45 114.73 110.18 -4.55 108.23 5.68
123.7 113.40 112.93 113.88 0.95 105.63 18.08
114.9 118.80 116.10 121.50 5.40 114.83 0.08
121.5 119.30 119.05 119.55 0.50 126.90 5.40
126.1 118.20 118.75 117.65 -1.10 120.05 6.05
128.3 123.80 121.00 126.60 5.60 116.55 11.75
101.1 127.20 125.50 128.90 3.40 132.20 31.10
125 114.70 120.95 108.45 -12.50 132.30 7.30
123.4 113.05 113.88 112.23 -1.65 95.95 27.45
128.4 124.20 118.63 129.78 11.15 110.58 17.83
118 125.90 125.05 126.75 1.70 140.93 22.93
118.5 123.20 124.55 121.85 -2.70 128.45 9.95
125.2 118.25 120.73 115.78 -4.95 119.15 6.05
125 121.85 120.05 123.65 3.60 110.83 14.18
114.8 125.10 123.48 126.73 3.25 127.25 12.45
133.1 119.90 122.50 117.30 -5.20 129.98 3.13
132.7 123.95 121.93 125.98 4.05 112.10 20.60
128.5 132.90 128.43 137.38 8.95 130.03 1.52
106.5 130.60 131.75 129.45 -2.30 146.33 39.83
125.1 117.50 124.05 110.95 -13.10 127.15 2.05
126.8 115.80 116.65 114.95 -1.70 97.85 28.95
133.3 125.95 120.88 131.03 10.15 113.25 20.05
120 130.05 128.00 132.10 4.10 141.18 21.18
124.2 126.65 128.35 124.95 -3.40 136.20 12.00
120.9 122.10 124.38 119.83 -4.55 121.55 0.65
131.4 122.55 122.33 122.78 0.45 115.28 16.13
120 126.15 124.35 127.95 3.60 123.23 3.23
131.9 125.70 125.93 125.48 -0.45 131.55 0.35
129.4 125.95 125.83 126.08 0.25 125.03 4.38
128 130.65 128.30 133.00 4.70 126.33 1.68
109.7 128.70 129.68 127.73 -1.95 137.70 28.00
127 118.85 123.78 113.93 -9.85 125.78 1.23
130.6 118.35 118.60 118.10 -0.50 104.08 26.53
127 128.80 123.58 134.03 10.45 117.60 9.40
122 128.80 128.80 128.80 0.00 144.48 22.48
13.89
EMC
1.50
47.96
30.80
520.98 112.7
112.4
25.00
689.06 116.4
108.3
228.01
118.4
979.69
231.80 116.2
54.02 120.4
319.52 100.4
27.30 114.8
8.85 124.8
102.52 118.5
8.56 106.8
1,326.78 109.2
0.25 106.5
916.58 118.9
205.92 102.4
738.48 117
715.56 117.7
8.56 111.2
679.91 92.4
57.76 110.6
42.90 113.1
15.21 115.4
17.64 100.2
18.71 105.5
0.86 102.7
37.52 84.2
105.06 104.9
48.30 104.4
49.35 109.2
3.33 99.9
405.02 105.7
49.35 102.1
1,321.32 106.3
210.98 115.8
1,480.33 111.6
90.73 114.3
274.73 119.5
267.32 91.7
29.43 115.8
64.80 125
68.89 115.5
196.70 106.9
1,079.12 110.5
136.31 114.2
1,067.66 121.3
346.89 112.4
915.06 117.8
131.10 123.8
32.21 126.5
326.71 96.5
0.01 120
29.16 123.7
36.60 122
138.06 112
967.21 112.9
53.29 113.9
753.50 123.7
317.73 114.9
525.56 121.5
99.00 126.1
36.60 128.3
200.93 101.1
155.00 125
9.77 123.4
424.36 128.4
2.33 118
1,586.03 118.5
4.20 125.2
838.10 125
402.00 114.8
448.38 133.1
144.00 132.7
0.42 128.5
260.02 106.5
10.40 125.1
0.12 126.8
19.14 133.3
2.81 120
784.00 124.2
1.50 120.9
703.58 131.4
88.36 120
505.13 131.9
307.29 129.4
128
109.7
127
130.6
127
122
que vamos a tomar para calcular el coeficiente de autocorrelación es del año 2020, ya que no
edos que se utilizarán serán el de Promedio móvil doble y atenuación exponencial simple.
ño 2020, ya que nosotros queremos hallar el pronostico de los próximos 8 meses del año 2021
onencial simple.
meses del año 2021.
2. ATENUACIÓN EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE 0.10
Mes Yt Y et
t EMC
1 9 9.00 - -
2 10 9.00 1.00 1.00
Yˆt 1 Yt
3 13 9.10 3.90 15.21
4 6 9.49 -3.49 12.18
5 8 9.14 -1.14 1.30
6 7 9.03 -2.03 4.11
7 12 8.82 3.18 10.09
8 11 9.14 1.86 3.45
9 9 9.33 -0.33 0.11
10 9 9.29 -0.29 0.09
11 8 9.27 -1.27 1.60
12 7 9.14 -2.14 4.57
13 11 8.92 2.08 4.31
14 10 9.13 0.87 0.75
15 11 9.22 1.78 3.17
16 5 9.40 -4.40 19.34
17 6 8.96 -2.96 8.75
18 5 8.66 -3.66 13.41
19 6 8.30 -2.30 5.27
20 7 8.07 -1.07 1.14
21 5 7.96 -2.96 8.76
22 7 7.66 -0.66 0.44
23 8 7.60 0.40 0.16
24 6 7.64 -1.64 2.68
25 7.47
EMC 5.30
2.76 10.15 z=
Yˆt 1 Yt 1 Yˆt
et EMC DAM
At Yt 1 At 1
-1.99 3.95 1.99
3.41 11.65 3.41
1.75 3.08 1.75
Yˆ Z ( DAM )
Yˆ t ( DAM )
95%
5%
0.975
23
1.95996398 t= 2.20098516
At 1
At1
At
At