FOMC – Research

Semana del 26 al 30 de junio

Summary:

El presidente de la Reserva Federal, Jerome Powell, habló duro sobre la inflación el miércoles y
dijo en un foro que espera múltiples aumentos de las tasas de interés en el futuro y
posiblemente a un ritmo agresivo.

“Creemos que vendrán más restricciones”, dijo Powell durante una sesión de política monetaria
en Sintra, Portugal, en el cual aclaro que lo que realmente impulsa la inflación y el actual ciclo
de política monetaria es un mercado laboral muy sólido.

Los comentarios reiteran una posición adoptada por los compañeros formuladores de políticas
de Powell en su reunión de junio, durante la cual indicaron la probabilidad de otro medio punto
porcentual de aumentos hasta fines de 2023.

Suponiendo un cuarto de punto por reunión (25pbs), eso significaría dos alzas más. Los
comentarios anteriores de Powell señalaron la posibilidad de que los aumentos se produzcan en
reuniones alternativas, aunque dijo el miércoles que ese podría no ser el caso dependiendo de
cómo lleguen los datos.
28/06/2023

FOMC Powell:

- Fed's Powell: There is significant disinflation in the pipeline from rents but it will take
time. New rents are coming in at lower or no increases.
- Fed's Powell: I haven't seen progress in non-housing services inflation.
- Fed's Powell: I see a path for the labor market to soften and balance to return.
- Fed's Powell: We're getting softening we need but slower than expected.
- Fed's Powell: There is a significant probability we get a downturn but it's not the most
likely case.
- Fed's Powell: It is appropriate to slow the pace of Fed's moves.
- Fed's Powell: Response rates to data have dropped and are more volatile.
- Fed's Powell: Commercial real estate is not one of reasons for the June hold.
- Fed's Powell: Banks with under $100B in assets are the most likely to be exposed to
commercial real estate.
- Fed's Powell: Quantitative tightening working as the Fed had expected.
- Fed's Powell: I don't see anything that would make us want to adjust speed of balance
sheet adjustment right now.
- Fed's Powell: The underlying pace of QT is about $1 trillion/year.
- Fed's Powell: The Fed spends a lot of time on AI, although, it is too early for conclusión
- Fed's Powell: I don't see us getting back to 2% this year or the next, I see us making
progress.
- Fed's Powell: I see us getting to 2% core inflation by 2025.
- Fed's Powell: We believe there is more restriction coming, driven by the labor
market.

29/06/2023

FOMC Bostic:

- Fed’s Bostic: There are undoubtedly scenarios where we could move at two meetings in
a row, not expecting that will happen.
- Fed's Bostic: Core inflation has plateaued, signs underneath it might actually still have
some improvement coming.
- Fed's Bostic: We've only been in restrictive territory for 8-10 months.
- Fed's Bostic: I was hopeful before that it would work at the earlier end of the 6-24 month
window we are seeing signs of that is happening.
- Fed's Bostic: I'm looking for more signs that a slowdown is happening in the next several
months.
- Fed’s Bostic: I do not see Fed rate cuts in 2023 or 2024.
- Fed’s Bostic: I expect the Fed can meet inflation goal without causing a severe downturn.