Proyecciones Banco de La Republica

Encuesta Mensual de
Expectativas de Analistas
Económicos (EME)
Banco de la República
Sección Estadística
Enero 2023
INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
Índice TASA DE CAMBIO
TASA DE POLÍTICA MONETARIA
OTRAS VARIABLES: DESEMPLEO, IBR, DTF. DÉF. FISCAL Y

DÉF. DE CUENTA CORRIENTE
INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
TASA DE CAMBIO

13/01/2023
¿Cuál es su pronóstico de inflación
para cada periodo?
Inflación total
4
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.8 ≤ π ≤ 0.9 5.3%

0.9 < π ≤ 1 5.3%
1 < π ≤ 1.1 2.6%
1.1 < π ≤ 1.2 5.3%
1.2 < π ≤ 1.3 2.6%
1.3 < π ≤ 1.4 2.6%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1.4 < π ≤ 1.5 2.6%
3.5 ≤ π ≤ 4 1.5 < π ≤ 1.6 21.1%

1.6 < π ≤ 1.7 7.9%
esperada para ene-23
4 < π ≤ 4.5
Inflación total % mensual
1.7 < π ≤ 1.8 10.5%
22.2% 22.2%
1.8 < π ≤ 1.9 15.8%
4.5 < π ≤ 5
5.6%
1.9 < π ≤ 2 5.3%
2 < π ≤ 2.1 7.9%
5 < π ≤ 5.5
25.0%
2.1 < π ≤ 2.2 5.3%
5.5 < π ≤ 6
Fuente: Encuesta EME. Cálculos Banco de la República

5.6%
esperada para dic-24
Inflación total % anual
6 < π ≤ 6.5
2.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
6.5 < π ≤ 7
8.3%
6 ≤ π ≤ 6.5 5.4%
7 < π ≤ 7.5
8.3%
6.5 < π ≤ 7 0.0%
7 < π ≤ 7.5 10.8%
7.5 < π ≤ 8 8.1%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
8 < π ≤ 8.5 21.6%

3 ≤ π ≤ 3.5 12.9%
8.5 < π ≤ 9 21.6%
3.5 < π ≤ 4 19.4% 9 < π ≤ 9.5 8.1%

4 < π ≤ 4.5 22.6% 9.5 < π ≤ 10 16.2%
10 < π ≤ 10.5 5.4%

4.5 < π ≤ 5 19.4%
10.5 < π ≤ 11 2.7%
5 < π ≤ 5.5 6.5%
5.5 < π ≤ 6 6.5%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
6 < π ≤ 6.5 6.5%

5.5 ≤ π ≤ 6
6.5 < π ≤ 7 6.5%
6 < π ≤ 6.5
5.9% 5.9%
6.5 < π ≤ 7
11.8%
7 < π ≤ 7.5
20.6%
7.5 < π ≤ 8
14.7%
Distribución de frecuencias para cada horizonte de pronóstico
8 < π ≤ 8.5
8.8%
8.5 < π ≤ 9
14.7%
9 < π ≤ 9.5
11.8%
9.5 < π ≤ 10
2.9%
10 < π ≤ 10.5
0.0%
10.5 < π ≤ 11
2.9%
Expectativa de inflación total anual a: ene/23*, dic/23, ene/24, dic/24, ene/25
Percentiles 10, 50 y 90
14
13 13.08
12.62
12
11
10
Inflación total, anual (%)
9
8.59
8
7.72
7.51
7
5 5.02
4.49
4 Expectativa 4.50
1
dic-20
dic-21
dic-22
dic-23
dic-24
Encuesta dic/22 Encuesta ene/23
*Calculado a partir de las expectativas mensuales
13/01/2023
¿Qué probabilidad le asigna a cada rango
de inflación total en cada periodo?
7
probabilidad promedio probailidad promedio
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
20%
25%
35%
40%
45%
15%
30%
15%
20%
25%
10%
30%
<= 2.0% <= 2.0%
2.01% - 3% 2.01% - 3%
3.01% - 4% 3.01% - 4%
4.01% - 5% 4.01% - 5%
5.01% - 6% 5.01% - 6%
6.01% - 7% 6.01% - 7%
2023-I
2023-III
7.01% - 8% 7.01% - 8%
8.01% - 9% 8.01% - 9%
9.01% - 10% 2024-I 9.01% - 10%
10.01% - 10.5% 10.01% - 10.5%

2024-III
10.51% - 11% 10.51% - 11%
11.01% - 11.5% 11.01% - 11.5%
11.51% - 12% 11.51% - 12%
12.01% - 12.5% 12.01% - 12.5%
12.51% - 13% 12.51% - 13%
> 13% > 13%
probabilidad promedio probabilidad promedio

0%
5%
10%
20%
30%
15%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
<= 2.0% <= 2.0%
2.01% - 3% 2.01% - 3%
3.01% - 4% 3.01% - 4%
4.01% - 5% 4.01% - 5%
5.01% - 6% 5.01% - 6%
6.01% - 7% 6.01% - 7%
2023-II
2023-IV
7.01% - 8% 7.01% - 8%
8.01% - 9% 8.01% - 9%
9.01% - 10% 9.01% - 10%
10.01% - 10.5% 10.01% - 10.5%

2024-II
2024-IV
10.51% - 11% 10.51% - 11%
11.01% - 11.5% 11.01% - 11.5%

Distribución de probabilidad de inflación total (media)
11.51% - 12% 11.51% - 12%
12.01% - 12.5% 12.01% - 12.5%
12.51% - 13% 12.51% - 13%
> 13% > 13%

8
13/01/2023
¿Cuál es su pronóstico de inflación sin
alimentos para cada periodo?
Inflación sin alimentos
9
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0.6 ≤ π ≤ 0.7 3.1%
0.7 < π ≤ 0.8 6.3%
0.8 < π ≤ 0.9 9.4%
0.9 < π ≤ 1 3.1%
1 < π ≤ 1.1 9.4%
1.1 < π ≤ 1.2 3.1%
1.2 < π ≤ 1.3
1.3 < π ≤ 1.4 6.3%
1.4 < π ≤ 1.5
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18.8% 18.8%
1.5 < π ≤ 1.6 3.1%
3 ≤ π ≤ 3.5 10.3% 1.6 < π ≤ 1.7 3.1%

1.7 < π ≤ 1.8 3.1%
3.5 < π ≤ 4 17.2% 1.8 < π ≤ 1.9 3.1%

Inflación sin alimentos % mensual
1.9 < π ≤ 2 6.3%
4 < π ≤ 4.5 13.8% 2 < π ≤ 2.1 0.0%

2.1 < π ≤ 2.2 0.0%
4.5 < π ≤ 5
2.2 < π ≤ 2.3 0.0%
34.5%
2.3 < π ≤ 2.4 3.1%
5 < π ≤ 5.5 6.9%

5.5 < π ≤ 6 13.8%
5%
0%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
6 < π ≤ 6.5 0.0% 5 ≤ π ≤ 5.5 10.0%

Inflación sin alimentos % anual
5.5 < π ≤ 6 6.7%

6.5 < π ≤ 7 0.0%
6 < π ≤ 6.5 0.0%
7 < π ≤ 7.5 3.4% 6.5 < π ≤ 7 6.7%
7 < π ≤ 7.5 3.3%
7.5 < π ≤ 8
33.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
8 < π ≤ 8.5 10.0%
8.5 < π ≤ 9 6.7%

3 ≤ π ≤ 3.5 24.0%
9 < π ≤ 9.5 6.7%

3.5 < π ≤ 4 28.0%
9.5 < π ≤ 10 13.3%
4 < π ≤ 4.5 16.0% 10 < π ≤ 10.5 0.0%
10.5 < π ≤ 11 0.0%

4.5 < π ≤ 5 16.0%
11 < π ≤ 11.5 3.3%
5 < π ≤ 5.5 8.0%
5.5 < π ≤ 6 4.0%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
6 < π ≤ 6.5 0.0% 4.5 ≤ π ≤ 5 6.9%

5 < π ≤ 5.5 6.9%

6.5 < π ≤ 7 0.0%
5.5 < π ≤ 6 0.0%
7 < π ≤ 7.5 4.0% 6 < π ≤ 6.5 3.4%
6.5 < π ≤ 7 20.7%
7 < π ≤ 7.5 20.7%
7.5 < π ≤ 8 17.2%
8 < π ≤ 8.5 10.3%
8.5 < π ≤ 9 10.3%

9 < π ≤ 9.5 0.0%

9.5 < π ≤ 10 0.0%

10 < π ≤ 10.5 0.0%
10.5 < π ≤ 11 0.0%
11 < π ≤ 11.5 3.4%

Expectativa de inflación sin alimentos anual a: ene/23*, dic/23, ene/24, dic/24,
ene/25
11.0
10.5
10.0 10.09
9.70
9.5
9.0
Inflación sin alimentos, anual (%) 8.5
8.0 7.95
7.5 7.44
7.0
7.01
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0 4.59
4.5
Expectativa 3.95
4.0
3.5 3.87
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
dic-20
dic-21
dic-22
dic-23
dic-24
*Calculado a partir de las expectativas mensuales
INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
TASA DE CAMBIO

13/01/2023
¿Cuál es su pronóstico de crecimiento
económico para cada periodo?
13
13
Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%)
esperado para trim-IV 2022 esperado para AÑO 2022 esperado para trim-I 2023
100% 25%
70% 63.6% 91.2% 21.9%
90%
60% 20% 18.8% 18.8%
80%
50% 70% 15.6%
60% 15%
40% 12.5%
50%
30% 40% 10%
30%
20%
12.1% 12.1% 20%
5.9% 5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
10% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 10% 2.9%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
0% 0%
0%
7.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 8.5
8.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 9.5

6.5 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 7.5
0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3.5
3.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 4.5
4.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 5.5
5.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 6.5
6.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 7.5
7.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 8.5

-1.5 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ -0.5
-0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3
3.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 4

1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
3 < ΔPIB ≤ 3.5
4 < ΔPIB ≤ 4.5

0 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%)
esperado para trim-II 2023 esperado para trim-III 2023
40% 37.5% 40% 37.5%
35% 35%
30% 30%
25.0%
25% 25%
20% 20% 18.8% 18.8%
15% 12.5% 15% 12.5%

9.4%
10% 6.3% 6.3% 10% 6.3%
5% 3.1% 5% 3.1%
0% 0%
0 < ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5

0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3

-0.5 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 0
0 < ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5

0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2

-0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 0
-1 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ -0.5
14
Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%)
esperado para trim-IV 2023 esperado para AÑO 2023 esperado para trim-I 2024
50% 50% 45.5% 25%
43.8% 21.4%
45% 45%
40% 40% 20% 17.9%
35% 35% 33.3%
14.3%
30% 30% 15%
25% 25% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
20% 15.6% 15.6% 20% 15.2% 10%
7.1%
15% 15%
9.4%
10% 6.3% 10% 6.1% 5% 3.6% 3.6%
5% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 5%
0% 0% 0%
0 < ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
0 < ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5

1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
3 < ΔPIB ≤ 3.5

0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3
3.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 4

-0.5 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 0
-0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 0
-1 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ -0.5
0.5 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 1
Crecimiento PIB (%) Crecimiento PIB (%)
esperado para trim-II 2024 esperado para trim-III 2024
30% 28.6% 30% 28.6%
25% 25%
21.4% 21.4%
20% 20% 17.9%
14.3% 14.3%
15% 15%
10.7%
10% 7.1% 7.1% 10% 7.1% 7.1%
5% 3.6% 3.6% 5% 3.6% 3.6%

0.0% 0.0%
0% 0%
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
3 < ΔPIB ≤ 3.5
4 < ΔPIB ≤ 4.5
2 < ΔPIB ≤ 2.5
3 < ΔPIB ≤ 3.5
4 < ΔPIB ≤ 4.5

1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5
1 < ΔPIB ≤ 1.5

0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3
3.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 4
0.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 1
1.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 2
2.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 3
3.5 < ΔPIB ≤ 4

0 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
0 ≤ ΔPIB ≤ 0.5
15
Expectativas de crecimiento del PIB
Percentiles
14 50
12
Expectativa 45
40
10
35
8
30
Porcentaje
6 25
20
4
15
2
10
0
5
-2 0
jun-23
jun-24
jun-22
sep-22
sep-23
sep-24
dic-22
dic-23
mar-24
mar-22
mar-23
Encuesta oct/22 Encuesta ene/23

13/01/2023
Para cada periodo ¿qué probabilidad le
asigna a cada uno de los rangos de valores
de crecimiento anual?
17
probabilidad promedio
10%
15%
20%
30%
35%
40%
45%
25%
0%
5%
<= 0%
0.01% a 0.5%

0.51% a 1.0%
1.01% a 1.5%
1.51% a 2.0%
2.01% a 2.5%
2.51% a 3.0%
2022
3.01% a 3.5%
3.51% a 4.0%
4.01% a 4.5%
2023
4.51% a 5.0%
5.01% a 5.5%
5.51% a 6.0%
6.01% a 6.5%
6.51% a 7%
7.01% a 7.5%
Distribución de probabilidad de PIB (media)
7.51% a 8%
> 8%
18
INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
TASA DE CAMBIO

13/01/2023
¿Cuál es su pronóstico para cada fin de
periodo (COL/US) de la tasa
representativa de mercado (TRM)?
20
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4450 ≤ TRM ≤ 4500 2.6%
4500 < TRM ≤ 4550 0.0%
4550 < TRM ≤ 4600 10.5%
4600 < TRM ≤ 4650 7.9%
4650 < TRM ≤ 4700 15.8%
4700 < TRM ≤ 4750 10.5%
4750 < TRM ≤ 4800 10.5%

Tasa de cambio
4800 < TRM ≤ 4850
6%
0%
2%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18.4%
4850 < TRM ≤ 4900 13.2%

3600 ≤ TRM ≤ 3700
4% 2.9%
3700 < TRM ≤ 3800 4900 < TRM ≤ 4950 2.6%
3800 < TRM ≤ 3900

4950 < TRM ≤ 5000 5.3%
0.0%0.0%
3900 < TRM ≤ 4000
8.6%
5000 < TRM ≤ 5050 2.6%
4000 < TRM ≤ 4100
4100 < TRM ≤ 4200
2.9%2.9%
4200 < TRM ≤ 4300
5.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4300 < TRM ≤ 4400

11.4%
4400 < TRM ≤ 4500 4300 ≤ TRM ≤ 4350 5.6%

8.6%
Tasa de cambio
4500 < TRM ≤ 4600 4350 < TRM ≤ 4400 2.8%

11.4%
4600 < TRM ≤ 4700 4400 < TRM ≤ 4450 0.0%

14.3%
4450 < TRM ≤ 4500 11.1%

4700 < TRM ≤ 4800
2.9%
4500 < TRM ≤ 4550 0.0%

4800 < TRM ≤ 4900
14.3%
4550 < TRM ≤ 4600 2.8%

4900 < TRM ≤ 5000
8.6%
4600 < TRM ≤ 4650 19.4%

5000 < TRM ≤ 5100
5.7%
4650 < TRM ≤ 4700 8.3%

4700 < TRM ≤ 4750 2.8%
Tasa de cambio
4750 < TRM ≤ 4800 16.7%

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4800 < TRM ≤ 4850 2.8%

4850 < TRM ≤ 4900 13.9%
3551 ≤ TRM ≤ 3651 3.2%
4900 < TRM ≤ 4950 5.6%
3651 < TRM ≤ 3751 0.0%
4950 < TRM ≤ 5000 5.6%
3751 < TRM ≤ 3851 0.0%
5000 < TRM ≤ 5050 0.0%
3851 < TRM ≤ 3951 6.5%
5050 < TRM ≤ 5100 2.8%
3951 < TRM ≤ 4051 6.5%
4051 < TRM ≤ 4151 0.0%
4151 < TRM ≤ 4251 3.2%
4251 < TRM ≤ 4351 12.9%
5%
0%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4351 < TRM ≤ 4451 12.9%

4200 ≤ TRM ≤ 4300
Tasa de cambio
4451 < TRM ≤ 4551 3.2%

4551 < TRM ≤ 4651 12.9%

4300 < TRM ≤ 4400
8.6% 8.6%
4651 < TRM ≤ 4751 3.2%

4751 < TRM ≤ 4851 19.4%
4400 < TRM ≤ 4500
0.0%
4851 < TRM ≤ 4951 6.5%

4951 < TRM ≤ 5051 3.2% 4500 < TRM ≤ 4600
20.0%
5051 < TRM ≤ 5151 6.5%

4600 < TRM ≤ 4700
17.1%
Tasa de cambio
4700 < TRM ≤ 4800

20.0%
4800 < TRM ≤ 4900

14.3%
4900 < TRM ≤ 5000
5000 < TRM ≤ 5100

5.7% 5.7%
Expectativa de TRM a: ene/23, dic/23, ene/24, dic/24, ene/25
5100
5000
4900
4826
4800 4,718
4,765
4700 4700
4,700
4,600
4600
4516
4500
4,560
4400
4300
TRM
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
Expectativa
3700
3600
3500
3400
dic-20
dic-21
dic-22
dic-23
dic-24

INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
TASA DE CAMBIO

13/01/2023
¿Cuál cree usted será el nivel de la Tasa de
intervención que la JDBR fijará en la
reunión de los siguientes meses?
Nota: con esta nueva redacción se aclara que la respuesta a la pregunta se refiere a la decisión del nivel de tasa de interés del mes de referencia, como lo han venido
respondiendo los analistas hasta el momento.
24
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
6.50 3.0%
6.75 0.0%
7.00 0.0%
7.25 0.0%
7.50 0.0%
7.75 0.0%
8.00 12.1%
8.25 3.0%
8.50 6.1%
8.75 0.0%
9.00 15.2%
9.25 3.0%
9.50 15.2%
9.75
0%
3.0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
10.00 15.2%
Tasa de intervención
10.25 0.0%
Tasa de intervención (%) 12.00

10.50 6.1%
2.7%
10.75 0.0%
11.00 6.1%
11.25 0.0% 12.25
0.0%
11.50 9.1%
11.75 0.0%
12.00 3.0% 12.50
18.9%
12.75
24.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
4.00 5.9%
13.00
Tasa de intervención (%)
51.4%
4.25 0.0%
4.50 2.9%
4.75 5.9% 13.25
0.0%
5.00 14.7%
5.25 0.0%
5.50 5.9% 13.50
2.7%
5.75 2.9%
6.00
23.5%
6.25 0.0%
6.50 5.9%
6.75
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2.9%
7.00 8.8%
7.50 2.8%
7.25 0.0%
7.75 0.0%
7.50 8.8%
8.00 0.0%
7.75 0.0%
8.25 0.0%
8.00 5.9%
8.50 2.8%
8.25 0.0%
8.75 2.8%
8.50 2.9%
9.00 16.7%
8.75 0.0% 9.25 0.0%
9.00 2.9% 9.50 11.1%
9.75 2.8%
10.00
27.8%
10.25 0.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
10.50 8.3%
3.25 3.1% 10.75 0.0%

3.50 0.0% 11.00 8.3%

3.75 0.0%
4.00 11.25 0.0%
3.1%
4.25 0.0% 11.50 5.6%
4.50 6.3% 11.75 0.0%
4.75 9.4% 12.00 5.6%
5.00 15.6% 12.25 0.0%
5.25 0.0%
5.50 15.6% 12.50 5.6%
5.75 3.1%
6.00 6.3%
6.25 0.0%
6.50 9.4%
6.75 0.0%
7.00
18.8%
7.25 0.0%
7.50 3.1%
7.75 0.0%
8.00 3.1%
8.25 0.0%
8.50 0.0%
8.75 0.0%
9.00 3.1%
Expectativas de Tasa de Intervención
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
Expectativa
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
mar-22
mar-23
mar-24
ene-22
ene-23
ene-24
ene-25
may-21
may-22
may-23
may-24
jul-21
jul-22
jul-23
jul-24
sep-21
sep-22
sep-23
sep-24
nov-21
nov-22
nov-23
nov-24

INFLACIÓN
CRECIMIENTO
TASA DE CAMBIO

13/01/2023
periodo de la tasa de desempleo?
28
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5
3.8%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10
3.8%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5
11.5%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11
26.9%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5
11.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Desempleo (%)
11.5 < des. ≤ 12
esperado para 2023 II
15.4%
8 ≤ des. ≤ 8.5
3.6%
12 < des. ≤ 12.5

8.5 < des. ≤ 9
7.1%
12.5 < des. ≤ 13
11.5% 11.5%
9 < des. ≤ 9.5

21.4%
13 < des. ≤ 13.5
3.8%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10
42.9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

Desempleo (%)
10.7%
esperado para 2022 IV
9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5
3.8%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11
7.1%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10

11.5%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

3.6%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

19.2%
11.5 < des. ≤ 12

3.6%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11

23.1%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

Desempleo (%)
7.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
esperado para 2023 III
11.5 < des. ≤ 12 9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5

19.2%
12 < des. ≤ 12.5 9.5 < des. ≤ 10

3.8% 3.8%
11.5%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

12.5 < des. ≤ 13
15.4%
3.8%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11

23.1%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
11.5%
Desempleo (%)
8 ≤ des. ≤ 8.5 11.5 < des. ≤ 12

15.4%
esperado para 2023 I
8.5 < des. ≤ 9 12 < des. ≤ 12.5

3.7% 3.7%
3.8%
9 < des. ≤ 9.5 12.5 < des. ≤ 13

15.4%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10

13 < des. ≤ 13.5
14.8% 14.8%
7.7%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

3.7%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11

Desempleo (%)
22.2%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

7.4%
11.5 < des. ≤ 12

25.9%
12 < des. ≤ 12.5

0.0%
12.5 < des. ≤ 13

3.7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5
4.5%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10
0.0%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5
22.7%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11
11 < des. ≤ 11.5
9.1% 9.1%
11.5 < des. ≤ 12
Desempleo (%)
12 < des. ≤ 12.5

13.6% 13.6%
12.5 < des. ≤ 13

9.1%
13 < des. ≤ 13.5

13.6%

13.5 < des. ≤ 14
4.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5
4.5%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10

13.6%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

4.5%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11

22.7%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

18.2%
11.5 < des. ≤ 12

Desempleo (%)
12 < des. ≤ 12.5

9.1% 9.1%
12.5 < des. ≤ 13
13 < des. ≤ 13.5

4.5% 4.5%
13.5 < des. ≤ 14

9.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
9 ≤ des. ≤ 9.5
4.5%
9.5 < des. ≤ 10

22.7%
10 < des. ≤ 10.5

13.6%
10.5 < des. ≤ 11

9.1%
11 < des. ≤ 11.5

Desempleo (%)
22.7%
11.5 < des. ≤ 12

4.5%
12 < des. ≤ 12.5

18.2%
12.5 < des. ≤ 13

4.5%
13/01/2023
periodo de la IBR (3 meses)?
31
0%
5%
20%
10%
15%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
8.5 ≤ IBR ≤ 9
3.8%
9 < IBR ≤ 9.5
0.0%
12.2 ≤ IBR ≤ 12.7
30.8%
9.5 < IBR ≤ 10
19.2%

10 < IBR ≤ 10.5
11.5%
10.5 < IBR ≤ 11
19.2% 12.7 < IBR ≤ 13.2
IBR(3m) (%)
46.2%
11 < IBR ≤ 11.5
3.8%
IBR(3m) (%)
11.5 < IBR ≤ 12

12 < IBR ≤ 12.5

11.5% 11.5%
12.5 < IBR ≤ 13 13.2 < IBR ≤ 13.7

15.4%
23.1%
13 < IBR ≤ 13.5

3.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
7.5 ≤ IBR ≤ 8
3.8%
10.1 ≤ IBR ≤ 10.6

3.8%
8 < IBR ≤ 8.5

7.7%
10.6 < IBR ≤ 11.1

3.8%
8.5 < IBR ≤ 9

19.2%
11.1 < IBR ≤ 11.6

7.7%
9 < IBR ≤ 9.5
9.5 < IBR ≤ 10 11.6 < IBR ≤ 12.1

30.8%
11.5% 11.5%
IBR(3m) (%)
10 < IBR ≤ 10.5

IBR(3m) (%)
12.1 < IBR ≤ 12.6

11.5%
10.5 < IBR ≤ 11

15.4% 15.4%
12.6 < IBR ≤ 13.1

15.4%
11 < IBR ≤ 11.5

3.8%
13.1 < IBR ≤ 13.6

23.1%
11.5 < IBR ≤ 12

7.7%
12 < IBR ≤ 12.5 13.6 < IBR ≤ 14.1

3.8%
3.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
4 ≤ IBR ≤ 4.5 5.5 ≤ IBR ≤ 6 4.2%
8.3%
4.5 < IBR ≤ 5 6 < IBR ≤ 6.5 0.0%
0.0%
6.5 < IBR ≤ 7 8.3%
5 < IBR ≤ 5.5
8.3%
7 < IBR ≤ 7.5 8.3%
5.5 < IBR ≤ 6

25.0%
7.5 < IBR ≤ 8
16.7%
6 < IBR ≤ 6.5
4.2%
8 < IBR ≤ 8.5 12.5%
6.5 < IBR ≤ 7
16.7%
8.5 < IBR ≤ 9 12.5%
IBR(3m) (%)
IBR(3m) (%)
7 < IBR ≤ 7.5

25.0%
9 < IBR ≤ 9.5


16.7%
7.5 < IBR ≤ 8
4.2%
9.5 < IBR ≤ 10
12.5%
8 < IBR ≤ 8.5
0.0%
10 < IBR ≤ 10.5 0.0%
8.5 < IBR ≤ 9 10.5 < IBR ≤ 11 4.2%
9 < IBR ≤ 9.5 11 < IBR ≤ 11.5 4.2%

4.2% 4.2%
0%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
15%
20%
25%
3.9 ≤ IBR ≤ 4.4 4.5 ≤ IBR ≤ 5

10% 8.3%
5 < IBR ≤ 5.5

4.2%
4.4 < IBR ≤ 4.9

8.3% 8.3%
5.5 < IBR ≤ 6

8.3%
4.9 < IBR ≤ 5.4

6 < IBR ≤ 6.5
5.4 < IBR ≤ 5.9
6.5 < IBR ≤ 7
12.5% 12.5%
12.5%12.5%
5.9 < IBR ≤ 6.4 7 < IBR ≤ 7.5

4.2%
25.0%
7.5 < IBR ≤ 8

IBR(3m) (%)
IBR(3m) (%)
6.4 < IBR ≤ 6.9

16.7%
8 < IBR ≤ 8.5

6.9 < IBR ≤ 7.4

20.8%
12.5% 12.5%
8.5 < IBR ≤ 9

4.2%
7.4 < IBR ≤ 7.9

4.2%
9 < IBR ≤ 9.5

0.0%
7.9 < IBR ≤ 8.4

0.0%
9.5 < IBR ≤ 10
8.4 < IBR ≤ 8.9 10 < IBR ≤ 10.5

4.2%
4.2% 4.2%
13/01/2023
periodo de la Déficit Fiscal?
34
Déficit Fiscal (%PIB) Déficit Fiscal (%PIB)

esperado para 2023 esperado para 2024
50% 50%
43.5%
45% 45%
40% 40%
35% 35%
30% 30% 26.1%
25.0% 25.0%
25% 25% 21.7%
20% 17.9% 20%
14.3% 15%
15% 10.7% 8.7%
10% 7.1% 10%
5% 5%
0.0%
0% 0%
3 < Dfisc ≤ 4
4 < Dfisc ≤ 5
5 < Dfisc ≤ 6
2 ≤ Dfisc ≤ 3
3.1 ≤ Dfisc ≤ 3.6
3.6 < Dfisc ≤ 4.1
4.1 < Dfisc ≤ 4.6
4.6 < Dfisc ≤ 5.1
5.1 < Dfisc ≤ 5.6
5.6 < Dfisc ≤ 6.1
6.1 < Dfisc ≤ 6.6

13/01/2023
periodo de la Déficit de Cuenta Corriente?
36
Déficit Cuenta Corriente (%PIB) Déficit Cuenta Corriente (%PIB)

esperado para 2023 esperado para 2024
35% 40% 36.0%
31.0% 31.0%
30% 35%
30% 28.0%
25%
25%
20% 20.0%
20%
15% 15%
10.3% 10.3% 10.3%
10% 6.9% 10% 8.0%
4.0% 4.0%
5% 5%
0.0%
0% 0%
3 ≤ DCC ≤ 3.5
3.5 < DCC ≤ 4
4 < DCC ≤ 4.5
4.5 < DCC ≤ 5
5 < DCC ≤ 5.5
5.5 < DCC ≤ 6
6 < DCC ≤ 6.5

3.5 ≤ DCC ≤ 4
4 < DCC ≤ 4.5
4.5 < DCC ≤ 5
5 < DCC ≤ 5.5
5.5 < DCC ≤ 6
6 < DCC ≤ 6.5

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Encuesta Mensual de

Índice TASA DE CAMBIO

TASA DE POLÍTICA MONETARIA

OTRAS VARIABLES: DESEMPLEO, IBR, DTF. DÉF. FISCAL Y

TASA DE POLÍTICA MONETARIA

OTRAS VARIABLES: DESEMPLEO, IBR, DTF. DÉF. FISCAL Y

0.8 ≤ π ≤ 0.9 5.3%

3.5 ≤ π ≤ 4 1.5 < π ≤ 1.6 21.1%

1.7 < π ≤ 1.8 10.5%

Fuente: Encuesta EME. Cálculos Banco de la República

6.5 < π ≤ 7 0.0%

7 < π ≤ 7.5 10.8%

7.5 < π ≤ 8 8.1%

8 < π ≤ 8.5 21.6%

3.5 < π ≤ 4 19.4% 9 < π ≤ 9.5 8.1%

4 < π ≤ 4.5 22.6% 9.5 < π ≤ 10 16.2%

10 < π ≤ 10.5 5.4%

5.5 < π ≤ 6 6.5%

6 < π ≤ 6.5 6.5%

9.01% - 10% 2024-I 9.01% - 10%

10.01% - 10.5% 10.01% - 10.5%

Fuente: Encuesta EME. Cálculos Banco de la República

11.01% - 11.5% 11.01% - 11.5%

11.51% - 12% 11.51% - 12%

12.01% - 12.5% 12.01% - 12.5%

12.51% - 13% 12.51% - 13%

> 13% > 13%

probabilidad promedio probabilidad promedio

<= 2.0% <= 2.0%

9.01% - 10% 9.01% - 10%

10.01% - 10.5% 10.01% - 10.5%

10.51% - 11% 10.51% - 11%

11.01% - 11.5% 11.01% - 11.5%

11.51% - 12% 11.51% - 12%

12.01% - 12.5% 12.01% - 12.5%

12.51% - 13% 12.51% - 13%

> 13% > 13%

Inflación sin alimentos

1.5 < π ≤ 1.6 3.1%

3 ≤ π ≤ 3.5 10.3% 1.6 < π ≤ 1.7 3.1%

1.7 < π ≤ 1.8 3.1%

3.5 < π ≤ 4 17.2% 1.8 < π ≤ 1.9 3.1%

1.9 < π ≤ 2 6.3%

4 < π ≤ 4.5 13.8% 2 < π ≤ 2.1 0.0%

5 < π ≤ 5.5 6.9%

Fuente: Encuesta EME. Cálculos Banco de la República

esperada para dic-24

6 < π ≤ 6.5 0.0% 5 ≤ π ≤ 5.5 10.0%

5.5 < π ≤ 6 6.7%

7 < π ≤ 7.5 3.3%

8 < π ≤ 8.5 10.0%

8.5 < π ≤ 9 6.7%

9 < π ≤ 9.5 6.7%

4 < π ≤ 4.5 16.0% 10 < π ≤ 10.5 0.0%

10.5 < π ≤ 11 0.0%

5 < π ≤ 5.5 8.0%

5.5 < π ≤ 6 4.0%

esperada para ene-25

6 < π ≤ 6.5 0.0% 4.5 ≤ π ≤ 5 6.9%

5 < π ≤ 5.5 6.9%

7 < π ≤ 7.5 4.0% 6 < π ≤ 6.5 3.4%

6.5 < π ≤ 7 20.7%