2015

Alternativa ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
1º T 2º T 3º T 4º T

P.I INVERSIÓN POST INVERSIÓN

Alternativa 1
HORIZONTE DE EVALUACIÓN
P.I INVERSIÓN POST INVERSIÓN
Alternativa 2
HORIZONTE DE EVALUACIÓN
P.I INVERSIÓN POST INVERSIÓN
Alternativa 3
HORIZONTE DE EVALUACIÓN
 FLUJO DE BENEFICIOS INCREMENTALES DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS
AÑOS
DESCRIPCIÓN
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción Alpacas 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
Producción de fibra 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de carne 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
TOTAL (S/.) 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
MENTALES DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS
AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59
 FLUJO DE COSTOS INCREMENTALES A PRECIOS DE MERCADO DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS

AÑOS
DESCRIPCION
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Alternativa 1 1,270,811.38 96,308.02 97,406.59 98,608.60 39,208.51 39,208.51
Preinversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,259,311.38 96,308.02 97,406.59 98,608.60 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39,208.51 39,208.51
Alternativa 2 1,328,303.99 174,571.05 178,236.76 182,232.97 43,458.37 43,458.37
Preinversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,316,803.99 174,571.05 178,236.76 182,232.97 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43,458.37 43,458.37
Alternativa 3 1,603,820.65 98,218.32 101,418.28 104,945.89 83,041.19 83,041.19
Preinversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,592,320.65 98,218.32 101,418.28 104,945.89 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83,041.19 83,041.19
CADO DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS

S
2021 2022 2023 2024
39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51
43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37
83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19
 FLUJO DE COSTOS INCREMENTALES A PRECIOS SOCIALES DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS

AÑOS
DESCRIPCION
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Alternativa 1 1,081,328.45 86,579.12 89,487.49 92,693.87 33,213.75 33,213.75
Preinversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,072,013.45 86,579.12 89,487.49 92,693.87 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33,213.75 33,213.75
Alternativa 2 1,130,197.86 151,490.55 154,796.04 158,402.10 36,826.13 36,826.13
Preinversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,120,882.86 151,490.55 154,796.04 158,402.10 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,826.13 36,826.13
Alternativa 3 1,350,741.22 86,590.73 89,500.34 92,708.09 69,667.14 69,667.14
Preinversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,341,426.22 86,590.73 89,500.34 92,708.09 0.00 0.00
Operación y man. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69,667.14 69,667.14
ES DE LAS ALTERNATIVAS

S
2021 2022 2023 2024
33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75
36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13
69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A PRECIOS DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA I

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,259,311.38 96,308.02 97,406.59 98,608.60 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39,208.51
Total Egresos 1,259,311.38 96,308.02 97,406.59 98,608.60 39,208.51
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -1,101,366.79 136,670.64 149,856.64 150,335.30 213,114.00
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -1,101,366.79 125,385.91 126,131.33 116,086.44 150,975.33
VANS S/. 37,401.14
TIRS 9.75%
DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA I

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51
39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51 39,208.51

216,715.06 221,008.51 225,739.52 230,546.34 235,364.08

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
140,849.92 131,780.15 123,487.25 115,703.43 108,368.16
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A PRECIOS DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,316,803.99 174,571.05 178,236.76 182,232.97 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43,458.37
Total Egresos 1,316,803.99 174,571.05 178,236.76 182,232.97 43,458.37
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -1,158,859.39 58,407.61 69,026.47 66,710.94 208,864.14
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -1,158,859.39 53,584.96 58,098.20 51,513.08 147,964.62
VAN -S/. 284,415.01
TIR -4.01%
DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37
43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37 43,458.37

212,465.20 216,758.65 221,489.66 226,296.48 231,114.22

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
138,087.80 129,246.10 121,162.43 113,570.57 106,411.41
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A PRECIOS DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 11,500.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,592,320.65 98,218.32 101,418.28 104,945.89 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83,041.19
Total Egresos 1,592,320.65 98,218.32 101,418.28 104,945.89 83,041.19
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -1,434,376.05 134,760.34 145,844.95 143,998.01 169,281.32
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -1,434,376.05 123,633.34 122,754.77 111,192.89 119,923.15
VANS -S/. 457,465.12
TIRS 0.91%
DE MERCADO DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19
83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19 83,041.19

172,882.38 177,175.83 181,906.84 186,713.66 191,531.40

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
112,361.69 105,644.16 99,509.27 93,705.29 88,186.38
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A COSTOS SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA I

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,072,013.45 86,579.12 89,487.49 92,693.87 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33,213.75
Total Egresos 1,072,013.45 86,579.12 89,487.49 92,693.87 33,213.75
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -914,068.85 146,399.54 157,775.74 156,250.03 219,108.76
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -914,068.85 134,311.50 132,796.68 120,653.69 155,222.17
VANS S/. 265,622.85
TIRS 15.07%
OS SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA I

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75
33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75 33,213.75

222,709.83 227,003.28 231,734.28 236,541.10 241,358.84

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
144,746.11 135,354.64 126,766.59 118,712.00 111,128.32
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A COSTOS SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,120,882.86 151,490.55 154,796.04 158,402.10 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36,826.13
Total Egresos 1,120,882.86 151,490.55 154,796.04 158,402.10 36,826.13
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -962,938.26 81,488.11 92,467.19 90,541.80 215,496.38
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -962,938.26 74,759.74 77,827.78 69,914.88 152,663.07
VANS S/. 38,980.84
TIRS 9.82%
S SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA II

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13
36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13 36,826.13

219,097.44 223,390.89 228,121.90 232,928.72 237,746.46

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
142,398.30 133,200.69 124,790.49 116,899.07 109,465.07
 FLUJO DE CAJA INCREMENTAL A COSTOS SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA III

DESCRIPCIÓN AÑOS
INGRESOS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Producción de Fibras 106,912.38 144,728.51 141,277.13 140,114.74 140,856.18
Producción de Carnes 51,032.22 88,250.16 105,986.10 108,829.16 111,466.33
Total Ingresos 157,944.60 232,978.66 247,263.23 248,943.91 252,322.51
EGRESOS
Pre inversión 9,315.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Inversión 1,341,426.22 86,590.73 89,500.34 92,708.09 0.00
Operación y mantenimiento 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 69,667.14
Total Egresos 1,341,426.22 86,590.73 89,500.34 92,708.09 69,667.14
EVALUACIÓN
Flujo BN -1,183,481.62 146,387.93 157,762.89 156,235.81 182,655.37
TSD (9%) 1.00 0.92 0.84 0.77 0.71
Flujo ABN -1,183,481.62 134,300.85 132,785.87 120,642.71 129,397.67
VANS -S/. 130,095.17
TIRS 6.38%
S SOCIALES DE LA ALTERNATIVA III

AÑOS
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
142,983.95 145,744.50 148,872.18 152,173.33 155,539.47
112,939.62 114,472.53 116,075.85 117,581.52 119,033.12
255,923.57 260,217.02 264,948.03 269,754.85 274,572.59

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14
69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14 69,667.14

186,256.43 190,549.88 195,280.89 200,087.71 204,905.45

0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.46
121,053.90 113,618.67 106,825.33 100,417.27 94,344.16
 INDICADORES Alternativa 1 Alternativa 2 Alternativa 3

A Precio de 1,551,634.59 1,851,844.77 1,896,903.15

Mercado
Monto Total de la
Inversión Total (S/.)
A Precio Social 1,340,773.93 1,585,571.55 1,610,225.37

VANS (S/.) 265,622.85 38,980.84 -457,465.12

Costo Beneficio (A
Precio Social)
TIRS (%) 15.07% 9.82% 6.38%
 ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD BC

VAB 1,540,380
VAC 1,296,689
VAN 265,623
BC 1.19

1.19 1,540,380 0.20 265,623 0.17 265,623

765,682 765,682 909,579
850,758 850,758 1,010,643
945,286 945,286 1,122,937
1,050,318 1,050,318 1,247,708
1,167,020 1,167,020 1,386,342
1,296,689 1,296,689 1,540,380
1,426,358 1,426,358 1,694,418
1,568,994 1,568,994 1,863,860
1,725,893 1,725,893 2,050,246
1,898,483 1,898,483 2,255,270
2,088,331 2,088,331 2,480,797

%∆ B/C BN/C BN/B SENSIBILIDAD B/C

-50% 2.01 0.35 0.29 2.50
-40%
-30% 2.00 2.01
B/C

-20% 1.50
-10%
0% 1.00
10%
0.50
20% 0.35
0.29
30% 0.00
40% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Variación Factores
50%
 Sensibil dad de la TIR

SENSIBILIDAD B/C

B/C
BN/
C

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Variación Factores
 ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD BC

VAB 1,540,380
VAC 1,504,618
VAN 38,981
BC 1.02

1.02 1,540,380 0.03 38,981 0.03 38,981

888,462 888,462 909,579
987,180 987,180 1,010,643
1,096,866 1,096,866 1,122,937
1,218,740 1,218,740 1,247,708
1,354,156 1,354,156 1,386,342
1,504,618 1,504,618 1,540,380
1,655,079 1,655,079 1,694,418
1,820,587 1,820,587 1,863,860
2,002,646 2,002,646 2,050,246
2,202,911 2,202,911 2,255,270
2,423,202 2,423,202 2,480,797

%∆ B/C BN/C BN/B SENSIBILIDAD B/C

-50% 1.73 0.04 0.04 2.00
-40% 1.80 1.73
-30% 1.60
1.40
B/C

-20% 1.20
-10% 1.00
0% 0.80
0.60
10%
0.40
20% 0.20
30% 0.00 0.04

40% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Variación Factores
50%
 Sensibil dad de la TIR

LIDAD B/C

B/C
BN/
C

% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

ctores
 ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD BC

VAB 1,540,380
VAC 1,659,733
VAN -130,095
BC 0.93

0.93 1,540,380 -0.08 -130,095 -0.08 -130,095

980,056 980,056 909,579
1,088,951 1,088,951 1,010,643
1,209,946 1,209,946 1,122,937
1,344,384 1,344,384 1,247,708
1,493,760 1,493,760 1,386,342
1,659,733 1,659,733 1,540,380
1,825,707 1,825,707 1,694,418
2,008,277 2,008,277 1,863,860
2,209,105 2,209,105 2,050,246
2,430,015 2,430,015 2,255,270
2,673,017 2,673,017 2,480,797

%∆ B/C BN/C BN/B SENSIBILIDAD B/C

-50% 1.57 -0.13 -0.14 2.00
-40%
1.57
-30% 1.50
B/C

-20% 1.00
-10%
0% 0.50
10%
0.00
20% -0.13
-0.14
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
30% -0.50
40%
Variación Factores
50%
 Sensibil dad de la TIR

SENSIBILIDAD B/C

B/C
BN/
C

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Variación Factores