Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
EBIT
AF 60,000 IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP LR 20,000 X AÑO DEP
VM3 0 INV AF -60,000
VRN AF
EBIT 1-3 100,000 INV CTN -20,000
FCL -80,000
INV CTN 0 20,000 PRÉSTAMO 48,000
AMORT
FINANCIAMIENTO INTERÉS
PRÉSTAMO EF = INT*TAX
PLAZO 3 AÑOS FCA -32,000
TASA INT 15% TEA
CUOTA CTE
PG PARCIAL 1 AÑO
D 1.5
E 1
COK 20%
IR = TAX 30%
PTO VISTA FC R
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC
FIN O ACC FCA COK
PG AMORT INT
* PARCIAL NO HAY SI HAY
TOTAL NO HAY NO HAY
PGT ---> INTERESES SE CAPITALIZAN
1 2 3 AF
100,000 100,000 100,000 V ADQ 60,000
-30,000 -30,000 -30,000 DEP LR 20,000
20,000 20,000 20,000 DEP ACUM 3 60,000
15%
N DEUDA I AMORT + INT =
1 48,000 0 0
2 55,200 25,674 8,280
3 29,526 29,526 4,429
CUOTA
0
33,954
33,954
N PROY 3 AÑOS ER
EBIT
AF 200,000 GF
TASA DEP 20% ANUAL UAI
V RESIDUAL 0 <--- LO QUE NO SE DEP IR 30%
VM3 100,000 <--- NO ESTA UN UN
UN 1 96,250 FC
UN 2 157,500 EBIT
UN3 246,750 IMPUESTOS 30%
DEP
CTN REQ 1 10,000 INV AF
CTN REQ 2 15,000 VRN AF
CTN REQ 3 20,000 INV CTN
FCL
FINANCIAMIENTO
PRÉSTAMO 150,000
PLAZO 3 AÑOS CTN REQ
TASA INT 15% TEA INV CTN
AMORT CTE IZQ - DER
IR = TAX 30%
FCL
VAN FIN 275,784 <--- COK PRÉSTAMO
AMORT
MODIFICACIÓN INTERESES
AMORT 100% VENCIMIENTO EF=INT*TAX
FCA
PTO VISTA FC R
* ECO O PROY FCL WACC
FIN O ACC FCA COK
FCL
PRÉSTAMO
AMORT
INTERESES
EF=INT*TAX
FCA
0 1 2 3
160,000 240,000 360,000
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500
137,500 225,000 352,500
=30%*UAI
96,250 157,500 246,750 =(1-30%)*UAI
0 1 2 3 AF
160,000 240,000 360,000 V ADQ 200,000
-48,000 -72,000 -108,000 BASE DEP 200,000 <--- V ADQ - V RESIDUAL
40,000 40,000 40,000 DEP LR 40,000 <--- BASE DEP*TASA DEP
-200,000 DEP ACUM 3 120,000
94,000
-10,000 -5,000 -5,000 20,000 VM3 100,000 <--- DATO
-210,000 147,000 203,000 406,000 VL3 80,000 <--- VADQ - DEP ACUM
VRN3 94,000 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
0 1 2 3
10,000 15,000 20,000 CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
-10,000 -5,000 -5,000 20,000 0 PRÉSTAMO 150,000
AMORT 50,000 <--- PRÉSTAM/NRO DE CUOTAS
0 1 2 3
-210,000 147,000 203,000 406,000 N DEUDA I AMORT +
150,000 1 150,000 50,000
-50,000 -50,000 -50,000 2 100,000 50,000
-22,500 -15,000 -7,500 3 50,000 50,000
6,750 4,500 2,250
-60,000 81,250 142,500 350,750
COK 25% ?
VAN FIN 275,784
0 1 2 3 CRONOGRAMA DE PAGOS
-210,000 147,000 203,000 406,000 PRÉSTAMO 150,000
150,000
0 0 -150,000
-22,500 -22,500 -22,500 N DEUDA I AMORT +
6,750 6,750 6,750 1 150,000 0
-60,000 131,250 187,250 240,250 2 150,000 0
3 150,000 150,000
COK 25% ?
VAN FIN 287,848
--- V ADQ - V RESIDUAL
--- BASE DEP*TASA DEP
15%
INT = CUOTA
22,500
15,000
7,500
15%
INT = CUOTA
22,500
22,500
22,500 <--- METODOLOGÍA AMERICANA
π1 12%
π2 14% π
π3 16% FACTOR INF
ING 1 N 280
ING 2 N 365
ING 3 N 450
FC N
G OPE 1 N 112 <--- S/DEP VENTAS
G OPE 2 N 154 G OPE
G OPE 3 N 205 DEP
EBIT
EQ 180 IMPUESTOS 30%
VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS DEP
DEP LR INV EQ
VM3 N 45 VRN EQ
FCL N
WACC R 12% FCL R
IR = TAX 30%
0 1 2 3
12% 14% 16%
1.1200 1.2768 1.4811
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)
R=N
AÑO BASE
0 1 2 3 EQ
280 365 450 V ADQ 180
-112 -154 -205 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
-60 -60 -60 DEP LR N 60 <--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
108 151 185 DEP ACUM 3 N 180
-32 -45 -56
60 60 60 VM3 N 45 <--- DATO
-180 VL3 N 0 <--- V ADQ - DEP ACUM
32 VRN3 N 32 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-180 136 166 221
-180 121 130 149
WACC R 12%
VAN R 138
--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
WACC N 21%
IR = TAX 30%
2 3 + VENTAS
13% 14% + AHORROS
1.2656 1.4428 - CVAR Y CF
(1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3) - C OPORT
EBITDA
- DEP Y A INT
EBIT
2 3 EQ
185 281 V ADQ 150
-50 -50 VIDA ÚTIL 3 AÑOS
135 231 DEP LR N 50 <--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
-40 -69 DEP ACUM 3 N 150
50 50
VM3 N 65 <--- DATO
45 VL3 N 0 <--- V ADQ - DEP ACUM
144 257 VRN3 N 45 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
WACC N 21%
VAN N 215
0 1 2
π 4% 5%
FACTOR INF 1.0400 1.0920
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2)
FC N
ESCENARIO PROB 0 1 2
PESIMISTA 40% -100 20 40
MODERADO 20% -100 60 80
OPTIMISTA 40% -100 100 120
FC R
ESCENARIO PROB 0 1 2
PESIMISTA 40% -100 19 37
MODERADO 20% -100 58 73
OPTIMISTA 40% -100 96 110
WACC R 16%
P( VAN < 0 )
P( Z < -0.7822 )
3
6%
1.1575
(1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)
3
55
100
150
1-DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.N
= ?
= 21.7%
171
0 1 2 3
π 13% 5% 2%
FACTOR INF 1.1300 1.1865 1.2102
(1+π1) (1+π1)(1+π2) (1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)
0 1 2 3
FCL R 133 137 141
FCL N 171
G REAL 3%
1+π1)(1+π2)(1+π3)
N PROY 4 AÑOS FC SIN IGV
VENTAS
VENTAS 1 40,000 C VAR
VENTAS 2 50,000 C FIJOS
VENTAS 3 60,000 AMORT INT
VENTAS 4 80,000 EBIT
IMPUESTOS
C VAR 40% VENTAS AMORT INT
C FIJOS 2,000 INTANGIBLE
VRN INTANGIBLE
IR = TAX 30% INV CTN
FCL
INTANGIBLE 10,000
VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS MÓDULO DEL IGV
A INT LR IGV VENTAS
VM4 0 IGV C VAR
IGV C FIJOS
INV CTN 0 4,000 IGV INTANGIBLE
IGV 18% IGV CTN
IGV A PAGAR
% AFECTA CRÉDITO FISCAL
VENTAS 100% IGV A PAGAR NETO
C VAR 50%
C FIJOS 70% FC CON IGV
INTANGIBLE 100% FC SIN IGV
CTN 50% FLUJO DEL IGV
IGV A PAGAR NETO
IGV VENTAS ---> ( - ) FC CON IGV
IGV COMPRAS ---> ( + )
0 1 2 3 4 INTANGIBLE
40,000 50,000 60,000 80,000 V ADQ 10,000
40% -16,000 -20,000 -24,000 -32,000 VIDA ÚTIL 4
-2,000 -2,000 -2,000 -2,000 A INT LR 2,500
-2,500 -2,500 -2,500 -2,500 DEP ACUM 4 10,000
19,500 25,500 31,500 43,500
30% -5,850 -7,650 -9,450 -13,050 VM4 0
2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 VL4 0
-10,000 VRN4 0
0
-4,000 4,000 0
-14,000 16,150 20,350 24,550 36,950 VRN = VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
%A 0 1 2 3 4
100% -7,200 -9,000 -10,800 -14,400
50% 1,440 1,800 2,160 2,880 VENTA AF
70% 252 252 252 252
100% 1,800 0 IGV VRN = %IGV * VALOR DE MCDO
50% 360 0 0 0 -360
-5,508 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628
2,160 0 0 0 0
0 -3,348 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628
0 1 2 3 4 <--- CORTO
-14,000 16,150 20,350 24,550 36,950 84,000
-2,160 5,508 6,948 8,388 11,628 <--- -SUMA(IGV)
0 -3,348 -6,948 -8,388 -11,628 <--- MODULO DEL IGV
-16,160 18,310 20,350 24,550 36,950 84,000
AÑOS
<--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
<--- DATO
<--- V ADQ - DEP ACUM
<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
M - (VM - VL)*TAX
MÓDULO IGV
IR VTA AF
GV * VALOR DE MCDO
IGV A PAGAR
CRÉDITO FISCAL
SALDO IGV
IGV A PAGAR NET
0 1 2 3 4
-7,200.0 -9,000.0 -10,800.0 -14,400.0
1,440.0 1,800.0 2,160.0 2,880.0
252.0 252.0 252.0 252.0
1,800.0 0.0
360.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -360.0
FC CON IGV
FC SIN IGV
FLUJO DEL IGV
IGV A PAGAR NETO
FC CON IGV
0 1 2 3 4 AF
27,000 31,000 35,000 39,000 V ADQ 800,000
50 50 50 50 VIDA ÚTIL 4
25 25 25 25 DEP LR 200,000
DEP ACUM 4 800,000
1,350,000 1,550,000 1,750,000 1,950,000
-675,000 -775,000 -875,000 -975,000 VM4 80,000
-300,000 -300,000 -300,000 -300,000 VL4 0
-200,000 -200,000 -200,000 -200,000 VRN4 56,000
175,000 275,000 375,000 475,000
30% -52,500 -82,500 -112,500 -142,500
200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000
-800,000
56,000
-135,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 195,000
-935,000 302,500 372,500 442,500 783,500
0 1 2 3 4
10% 135,000 155,000 175,000 195,000
-135,000 -20,000 -20,000 -20,000 195,000 0
%A 0 1 2 3 4
100% -243,000 -279,000 -315,000 -351,000
100% 121,500 139,500 157,500 175,500
50% 27,000 27,000 27,000 27,000
100% 144,000 -14,400
-94,500 -112,500 -130,500 -162,900
144,000 49,500 0 0 0
0 0 -63,000 -130,500 -162,900
0 1 2 3 4 <--- CORTO
-935,000 302,500 372,500 442,500 783,500 966,000
-144,000 94,500 112,500 130,500 162,900 <--- -SUMA(IGV)
0 0 -63,000 -130,500 -162,900 <--- MODULO DEL IGV
-1,079,000 397,000 422,000 442,500 783,500 966,000
WACC 22%
VAN ECO 127,295
VIABLE
AÑOS
<--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
<--- DATO
<--- V ADQ - DEP ACUM
<--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
MÓDULO IGV
IGV A PAGAR
CRÉDITO FISCAL
SALDO IGV
IGV A PAGAR NET
0 1 2 3 4
-243,000.0 -279,000.0 -315,000.0 -351,000.0
121,500.0 139,500.0 157,500.0 175,500.0
27,000.0 27,000.0 27,000.0 27,000.0
144,000.0 -14,400.0
TEA 1 - TAX
MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO WACC
43% 14.00% 72% 4.30%
24% 15.00% 72% 2.59%
33% 98.71% 32.90%
100% 39.80%
PB ABC 36,267
PB XYZ 20,400
PAS 56,667
PAT 28,333
ACTIVOS 85,000
RM <--- RENDIMIENTOS HISTÓRICOS DEL ÍNDICE NASDAQ
RM <--- RENDIMIENTOS HISTÓRICOS DEL ÍNDICE SYP500
RMH 12%
RFH 3%
RP 0%
COK 11.90%
GF 300,000 <--- INCLUYEN DEPRECIACIÓN
-DEP
GF <--- NO INCLUYEN DEPRECIACIÓN
NI D/E NI IR SON IGUALES QUE EN MI PROY --->
TEA 1 - TAX
FUENTE MONTO % COSTO ESCUDO WACC
DEUDA 50% 10.00% 70% 3.50%
PAT 50% 9.87% 4.94%
E+D 100% 8.44%
IR = TAX 30%
RFA 1.50%
RMH - RFH 5%
RP 2%
ACCIONES DE LA EMPRESA
ES QUE EN MI PROY ---> BETA APAL 1.2
D/E 0.75
IR = TAX 20%
PTO VISTA FC R
ECO O PROY FCL WACC
FIN O ACC FCA COK
0
270,000 270,000
WACC 8.44%
VAN ECO 90,360
COK 13% <--- ASUMIR D = 0 ENTONCES WACC = COK
MOTOS
CAMIONETAS
MOTOS --->
CAMIONETA --->
ALT + 94 ^
PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
29 3,264
131 67
113 3,278
273 6,609 <--- σ^2 VAN
81 <--- σ VAN
PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
-43 32,258
75 666
155 32,391
187 65,315 <--- σ^2 VAN
256 <--- σ VAN
CV 30.50% MOTOS
CV 30.60% CAMIONETAS
A) RIESGO SIMILAR
B) MOTOS TIENE MÁS RIESGO
C) CAMIONETAS TIEN MÁS RIESGO
A partir del año 3 los flujos crecen a perpetuidad con una gradiente de decrecimiento del 1%
COK 13% <--- ASUMIR D = 0 ENTONCES WACC = COK
MOTOS
G PERP -1%
FCL(1 + G PERP)/(R - G PERP)
ESC PROB 0 1 2 3 VT
PESIMISTA 20% -900 360 450 540 3,819
NORMAL 50% -900 400 500 600 4,243
OPTIMISTA 30% -900 440 550 660 4,667
el 1%
PERP)/(R - G PERP)
VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
2,792 558 40,718
3,202 1,601 841
3,612 1,084 40,886
E(VAN) ---> 3,243 82,445 <--- σ^2 VAN
287 <--- σ VAN
CV 9% <--- DE(VAN)/ABS(E(VAN))
PERP)/(R - G PERP)
VAN PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
7,725 1,545 376,463
8,973 4,486 7,778
10,220 3,066 378,019
E(VAN) ---> 9,097 762,261 <--- σ^2 VAN
873 <--- σ VAN
0 1
CTN REQ 10% 135,000
INV CTN -135,000 0
IZQ - DER
2 3 4 AF
27,000 27,000 27,000 V ADQ 500,000
50 50 50 VIDA ÚTIL 4 AÑOS
25 25 25 DEP LR 125,000 <--- V ADQ/VIDA ÚTIL
DEP ACUM 4 500,000
1,350,000 1,350,000 1,350,000
-675,000 -675,000 -675,000 VM4 50,000 <--- DATO
675,000 675,000 675,000 VL4 0 <--- V ADQ - DEP ACUM
-300,000 -300,000 -300,000 VRN4 35,000 <--- VM - (VM - VL)*TAX
-125,000 -125,000 -125,000
250,000 250,000 250,000
-75,000 -75,000 -75,000
125,000 125,000 125,000
35,000
0 0 135,000 0
300,000 300,000 470,000
2 3 4
135,000 135,000 135,000
0 0 135,000
R = WACC 22%
P( VAN > 0 ) = ?
PROB*VAN PROB*(VAN-E(VAN))^2
-17,286 14,879,134,764
94,915 306,155,036
87,456 14,817,903,756
165,085 30,003,193,556 <--- σ^2 VAN
173,214 <--- σ VAN
EN MILES DE $
1 2 3
0 2 3 4 5
-1,400
ÉXITO INV MOD 170 200 350
0.65 0.37
-300
EST
0.20 140 200 210
PES
0.35 RET 0
FRACASO
R = WACC 13.50%
ESC 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 -300 0 -1,400 250 345 400
2 -300 0 -1,400 170 200 350
3 -300 0 -1,400 140 200 210
4 -300 0 0
P( VAN > 0 ) = ?
+ G PERP 0%
+ G PERP 0%
ALT + 94 ^
VT=FCL(1+G PERP)/(R-G PERP)
<--- VT VAN PROB P*VAN P(VAN-E(VAN))^2
2,963 778 28% 217 99,408
2,593 412 24% 99 12,845
1,556 -233 13% -30 22,315
-300 35% -105 81,031
E(VAN) --> 181 215,599 <-- VAR VAN (σ^2)
464 <-- DE VAN (σ)
M.ESTAND.N
EN MILES DE $
1 2 3
0 1 2 3 4
-1,000
ÉXITO INV MOD 100 200 350
0.60 0.30
-10
PR
0.20 80 80
PES
0.40 RET 0
FRACASO
R = WACC 20.00%
P( VAN < 0 ) = ?
+ G PERP 0%
ALT + 94 ^
T=FCL(1+G PERP)/(R-G PERP)
VAN PROB P*VAN P(VAN-E(VAN))^2
771 30% 231 97,138
355 18% 64 4,179
-741 12% -89 106,869
-10 40% -4 18,015
E(VAN) --> 202 226,201 <-- VAR VAN (σ^2)
476 <-- DE VAN (σ)
M.ESTAND.N