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ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
DÉCIMO SEMESTRE
CÓDIGO 131841003
MINISTRATIVAS Y CONTABLES
ÓN FINANCIERA
CALLEJAS
Estado de Situación Financiera
A 31 de diciembre 2018
(Valores expresados en millones de pesos colombianos)
ACTIVO DICIEMBRE 2018 ANÁLISIS VERTICAL
Activo corriente
Efectivo y equivalentes de efectivo 347,520 3%
Deudores comerciales y otras cuentas por cobrar 1,020,579 8%
Inventarios 1,109,878 8%
Activos biológicos 94,569 1%
Otros activos corrientes 241,726 2%
Activos no corrientes mantenidos para la venta 6,777 0%
Total activo corriente 2,821,049 21%
Activo no corriente
Deudores comerciales y otras cuentas por cobrar 28,065 0%
Inversiones en asociadas y negocios conjuntos 192,795 1%
Otros activos financieros no corrientes 3,322,694 25%
Propiedades, planta y equipo, neto 3,376,364 25%
Propiedades de inversión 77,062 1%
Plusvalía 2,085,908 15%
Otros activos intangibles 1,167,536 9%
Activos por impuestos diferidos 379,753 3%
Otros activos no corrientes 72,471 1%
Total activo no corriente 10,702,648 79%
TOTAL ACTIVOS 13,523,697 100%
PASIVO
Pasivo corriente
Obligaciones financieras 522,302 10%
Proveedores y cuentas por pagar 1,094,960 21%
Impuesto sobre la renta e impuestos por pagar 228,841 4%
Pasivo por beneficios a empleados 165,833 3%
Provisiones corrientes 4,118 0%
Otros pasivos corrientes 26,676 1%
Total pasivo corriente 2,042,730 39%
Pasivos no corriente
Obligaciones financieras 2,265,743 44%
Proveedores y cuentas por pagar 158 0%
Pasivo por beneficios a empleados 175,036 3%
Pasivo por impuesto diferido 704,763 14%
Otros pasivos no corrientes 536 0%
Total pasivo no corriente 3,146,236 61%
TOTAL PASIVO 5,188,966 100%
PATRIMONIO
Patrimonio atribuible a las participaciones controladoras 8,290,443 61%
Participaciones no controladoras 44,288 0%
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 8,334,731 62%
TOTAL PASIVO Y PATRIMONIO 13,523,697 100%
nanciera
2018
e pesos colombianos)
DICIEMBRE 2017 ANÁLISIS VERTICAL ANÁLISIS HORIZONTAL
435,643 3% -20%
957,568 7% 7%
982,816 7% 13%
81,518 1% 16%
221,475 2% 9%
6,557 0% 3%
2,685,577 19% 5%
26,509 0% 6%
180,451 1% 7%
4,133,963 29% -20%
3,395,671 24% -1%
72,306 1% 7%
2,118,226 15% -2%
1,181,350 8% -1%
415,072 3% -9%
100,352 1% -28%
11,623,900 81% -8%
14,309,477 100% -5%
420207
4133
424340
$ 1,044,179
ESTRUCTURA DE CAPITAL
D/E 33%
D/(D+E) 25.07%
E/(D+E) 74.93%
100.00%
Estructura de Capital
74.93%
25.07%
Column C
Total deuda financiera Patrimonio
Prima de Riesgo
Date rf_e.a S&P 500 rm_m.mv rm_a.av (KM-KL)
10/1/2014 2.34% 2,018.05
11/1/2014 2.19% 2,067.56 2.42% 33.29% 31.10%
12/1/2014 2.17% 2,058.90 -0.42% -4.92% -7.09%
1/1/2015 1.68% 1,994.99 -3.15% -31.92% -33.60%
2/1/2015 2.00% 2,104.50 5.34% 86.77% 84.77%
3/1/2015 1.93% 2,067.89 -1.75% -19.14% -21.07%
4/1/2015 2.05% 2,085.51 0.85% 10.67% 8.62%
5/1/2015 2.10% 2,107.39 1.04% 13.27% 11.17%
6/1/2015 2.34% 2,063.11 -2.12% -22.71% -25.04%
7/1/2015 2.21% 2,103.84 1.95% 26.15% 23.95%
8/1/2015 2.20% 1,972.18 -6.46% -55.14% -57.34%
9/1/2015 2.06% 1,920.03 -2.68% -27.82% -29.88%
10/1/2015 2.15% 2,079.36 7.97% 151.03% 148.88%
11/1/2015 2.22% 2,080.41 0.05% 0.61% -1.61%
12/1/2015 2.27% 2,043.94 -1.77% -19.28% -21.54%
1/1/2016 1.93% 1,940.24 -5.21% -47.36% -49.29%
2/1/2016 1.74% 1,932.23 -0.41% -4.85% -6.59%
3/1/2016 1.79% 2,059.74 6.39% 110.30% 108.51%
4/1/2016 1.82% 2,065.30 0.27% 3.28% 1.46%
5/1/2016 1.83% 2,096.95 1.52% 19.86% 18.02%
6/1/2016 1.49% 2,098.86 0.09% 1.10% -0.39%
7/1/2016 1.46% 2,173.60 3.50% 51.09% 49.63%
8/1/2016 1.57% 2,170.95 -0.12% -1.45% -3.02%
9/1/2016 1.61% 2,168.27 -0.12% -1.47% -3.08%
10/1/2016 1.83% 2,126.15 -1.96% -21.16% -22.99%
11/1/2016 2.37% 2,198.81 3.36% 48.68% 46.31%
12/1/2016 2.48% 2,238.83 1.80% 23.93% 21.45%
1/1/2017 2.45% 2,278.87 1.77% 23.47% 21.02%
2/1/2017 2.36% 2,363.64 3.65% 53.80% 51.44%
3/1/2017 2.40% 2,362.72 -0.04% -0.47% -2.86%
4/1/2017 2.28% 2,384.20 0.91% 11.42% 9.14%
5/1/2017 2.20% 2,411.80 1.15% 14.72% 12.52%
6/1/2017 2.30% 2,423.41 0.48% 5.92% 3.62%
7/1/2017 2.29% 2,470.30 1.92% 25.58% 23.29%
8/1/2017 2.12% 2,471.65 0.05% 0.66% -1.46%
9/1/2017 2.33% 2,519.36 1.91% 25.52% 23.19%
10/1/2017 2.38% 2,575.26 2.19% 29.76% 27.38%
11/1/2017 2.42% 2,584.84 0.37% 4.55% 2.13%
12/1/2017 2.41% 2,673.61 3.38% 48.96% 46.55%
1/1/2018 2.72% 2,823.81 5.47% 89.38% 86.66%
2/1/2018 2.87% 2,713.83 -3.97% -38.52% -41.39%
3/1/2018 2.74% 2,640.87 -2.73% -28.22% -30.96%
4/1/2018 2.94% 2,648.05 0.27% 3.31% 0.37%
5/1/2018 2.82% 2,705.27 2.14% 28.90% 26.07%
6/1/2018 2.85% 2,718.37 0.48% 5.95% 3.10%
7/1/2018 2.96% 2,816.29 3.54% 51.79% 48.82%
8/1/2018 2.85% 2,901.52 2.98% 42.27% 39.41%
9/1/2018 3.06% 2,913.98 0.43% 5.27% 2.21%
10/1/2018 3.16% 2,711.74 -7.19% -59.17% -62.33%
11/1/2018 3.01% 2,760.17 1.77% 23.44% 20.42%
12/1/2018 2.69% 2,506.85 -9.63% -70.32% -73.00%
1/1/2019 2.64% 2,704.10 7.57% 140.16% 137.52%
2/1/2019 2.71% 2,784.49 2.93% 41.41% 38.70%
3/1/2019 2.41% 2,834.40 1.78% 23.53% 21.12%
4/1/2019 2.51% 2,945.83 3.86% 57.46% 54.95%
5/1/2019 2.14% 2,752.06 -6.80% -57.07% -59.21%
6/1/2019 2.00% 2,941.76 6.67% 116.92% 114.92%
7/1/2019 2.02% 2,980.38 1.30% 16.82% 14.80%
8/1/2019 1.51% 2,926.46 -1.83% -19.84% -21.34%
9/1/2019 1.64% 2,966.60 1.36% 17.63% 15.99%
Promedio Rf 2.27%
Promedio Rm 16.23%
Prima de Riesgo
2016 Promedio Tasa libre de Riesgo rf Promedio 1.83%
13.34% Riendimiento M rM Promedio 15.16%
13.34%
Año 1 2 3 4 5 Terminal
Índice 2,501.26 2,495.68 2,490.12 2,484.57 2,479.03 2,534.46
Cash 112.70 112.45 112.20 111.95 111.70 114.19
VP(Cash) 105.97 99.41 93.27 87.50 82.09 2,038.61
Valor implícito del índice 2,506.85
(0.00)
ROE
4.50%
Razón de pago
105.0%
Beta de la Deuda
rf 2.27%
Implied ERP 4.09% Prima de Riesgo
k'D 3.83%
beta D 0.38
Costo de la Deuda
6.79%
0.94% 5.88%
1.24% 6.18%
1.54% 6.49%
1.84% 6.79%
2.14% 7.09%
2.44% 7.40%
2.74% 7.70%
2021 2022
3.35% 3.00% Fuente: https://www.grupobancolombia.com/wps/portal/empresas/capital-inteligente/investigaciones-ec
2.29% 2.24% Fuente: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2017/02/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2015&ey=2022&sc
apital-inteligente/investigaciones-economicas/publicaciones/tablas-macroeconomicos-proyectados
PCPIEPCH&grp=0&a=
Date of Analysis: Data used is as of January 2019.
Nota: Var.
Anual -27 1512 -87
Acumulada -52 1401 -42
Mensual -15 611 -7
1/ La información de este cuadro se ha actualizado en la Nota Semanal N° 29 (19 de setiembre de 2019). Corresponde a dat
2/ Índice elaborado por el J.P. Morgan que refleja los retornos del portafolio de deuda según sea el caso, es decir, de cada pa
gentes en conjunto. Considera como deuda, eurobonos, bonos Brady y en menor medida deudas locales y préstamos. Es
disminución se asocia con una reducción del riesgo país percibido por los inversionistas. Se mide en puntos básicos y corr
bono del Tesoro de EUA de similar duración de la deuda en cuestión.
3/ Cien puntos básicos equivalen a uno porcentual.
Fuente: Reuters.
Elaboración: Gerencia de Información y Análisis Económico - Subgerencia de Economía Internacional.
ENTES: Índice de Bonos de Mercados Emergentes (EMBIG) 1/
Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBIG) 1/ Stripped Spread 2/ (In basis points) 3/
ce de bonos de mercados emergentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBIG) Stripped Spread
-5 -3 -44 53 5798
-32 -41 -129 -23 5288
-7 -14 -60 -24 363
Economía Internacional.
LATIN EMBIG
EMBIG Países
Países
Emergentes /
Latinoamericanos /
Emerging Countries
Latin Countries
429 325 2017
463 354 Jan.
442 338 Feb.
431 329 Mar.
432 331 Apr.
420 320 May.
430 325 Jun.
435 327 Jul.
435 325 Aug.
416 314 Sep.
407 306 Oct.
422 320 Nov.
419 313 Dec.
Note: bp chg.
-2 -40 Year-to-Year
-58 -80 Cumulative
-34 -28 Monthly
Beta D Apalancada BL =BU + D/E (1-t) (BU-BD)
BD = Beta de la Deuda
Flutuacciones 0.22
1.40
1.00 1.14
1.22 1.41
1.44 1.67
1.66 1.94
1.88 2.21
2.10 2.48
2.32 2.75
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Date updated: 5-Jan-19 YouTube Video explaining estimation choices and process. Notes
Created by: Aswath Damodaran, adamodar@stern.nyu.edu if you are looking for a pure-play beta, i.e., a beta for a business, the unle
What is this data? Beta, Unlevered beta and other risk measures US companies beta corrected for cash is your best bet. Since even sector betas can mov
Home Page: http://www.damodaran.com time, I have also reported the average of the this sector beta across time
Data website: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/data.html last column. This number, for obvious reasons, is less likely to be volatile
time.
Companies in each industry: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/indname.xls
Variable definitions: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/variable.htm
Do you want to use marginal or effective tax rates in unlevering betas? Marginal
If marginal tax rate, enter the marginal tax rate to use 25.00%
Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk
Advertising 48 1.22 71.06% 5.69% 0.79 8.64% 0.87 0.6668
Aerospace/Defense 85 1.24 25.39% 11.40% 1.04 4.65% 1.09 0.5108
Air Transport 18 1.02 89.82% 6.48% 0.61 3.77% 0.63 0.4134
Apparel 50 0.93 35.00% 14.19% 0.74 3.43% 0.76 0.5380
Auto & Truck 14 0.79 195.44% 10.15% 0.32 5.94% 0.34 0.4878
Auto Parts 52 1.17 39.95% 11.57% 0.90 7.24% 0.97 0.5604
Bank (Money Center) 10 0.71 203.85% 26.01% 0.28 34.12% 0.43 0.1730
Banks (Regional) 633 0.57 76.51% 26.99% 0.36 10.54% 0.40 0.2015
Beverage (Alcoholic) 31 1.30 34.18% 2.55% 1.03 1.35% 1.05 0.5694
Beverage (Soft) 37 1.18 23.53% 3.87% 1.00 4.21% 1.04 0.6396
Broadcasting 24 1.02 144.55% 2.54% 0.49 3.76% 0.51 0.4222
Brokerage & Investment Banking 38 1.21 296.73% 22.47% 0.37 18.29% 0.46 0.3704
Building Materials 42 1.10 32.99% 16.11% 0.88 3.99% 0.91 0.3707
Business & Consumer Services 168 1.22 35.68% 7.60% 0.96 3.95% 1.00 0.5495
Cable TV 14 1.13 70.70% 3.61% 0.74 2.85% 0.76 0.2818
Chemical (Basic) 39 1.55 66.48% 7.33% 1.03 7.90% 1.12 0.5418
Chemical (Diversified) 6 1.82 36.80% 3.18% 1.42 4.49% 1.49 0.3575
Chemical (Specialty) 89 1.17 32.62% 10.71% 0.94 4.93% 0.99 0.4753
Coal & Related Energy 23 1.17 67.40% 1.75% 0.78 19.77% 0.97 0.5707
Computer Services 119 1.27 39.18% 8.75% 0.98 6.22% 1.05 0.6067
Computers/Peripherals 57 1.68 25.13% 6.60% 1.41 5.66% 1.50 0.5360
Construction Supplies 48 1.45 45.88% 13.21% 1.08 6.01% 1.15 0.4206
Diversified 23 1.36 35.47% 7.41% 1.07 6.09% 1.14 0.5055
Drugs (Biotechnology) 481 1.51 18.92% 0.93% 1.32 7.47% 1.43 0.6041
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) 237 1.47 14.36% 2.26% 1.32 4.08% 1.38 0.6491
Education 35 1.28 30.73% 6.14% 1.04 6.39% 1.11 0.5390
Electrical Equipment 116 1.32 22.14% 4.36% 1.13 4.08% 1.18 0.6493
Electronics (Consumer & Office) 19 1.19 9.77% 7.67% 1.11 9.34% 1.22 0.5770
Electronics (General) 160 1.02 19.38% 11.67% 0.89 7.63% 0.96 0.5159
Engineering/Construction 52 1.01 48.88% 7.62% 0.74 9.02% 0.81 0.4309
Entertainment 120 1.33 19.85% 1.93% 1.16 4.63% 1.21 0.6944
Environmental & Waste Services 91 1.19 33.64% 3.23% 0.95 0.87% 0.96 0.6329
Farming/Agriculture 33 0.72 66.26% 9.64% 0.48 3.43% 0.50 0.5497
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance) 259 0.70 1138.31% 20.38% 0.07 2.58% 0.08 0.3064
Food Processing 83 0.81 46.80% 5.17% 0.60 1.83% 0.61 0.4401
Food Wholesalers 18 1.62 44.86% 4.71% 1.22 1.56% 1.23 0.5032
Furn/Home Furnishings 30 0.88 50.67% 16.96% 0.64 4.01% 0.67 0.4822
Green & Renewable Energy 21 1.62 146.40% 0.00% 0.77 3.24% 0.80 0.7244
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk
Healthcare Products 248 1.12 14.86% 5.46% 1.01 3.06% 1.04 0.5501
Healthcare Support Services 111 1.15 36.22% 8.33% 0.91 11.64% 1.03 0.5389
Heathcare Information and Technology 119 1.29 17.24% 5.65% 1.14 3.02% 1.18 0.5598
Homebuilding 31 0.98 62.24% 24.35% 0.67 7.71% 0.72 0.4157
Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities 34 1.12 139.76% 6.88% 0.55 1.27% 0.55 0.4838
Hotel/Gaming 70 1.01 63.90% 9.55% 0.68 4.35% 0.71 0.4490
Household Products 141 1.13 21.12% 7.14% 0.98 2.17% 1.00 0.6117
Information Services 71 1.12 15.06% 10.37% 1.01 3.83% 1.05 0.4209
Insurance (General) 20 0.87 47.86% 13.97% 0.64 4.45% 0.67 0.3298
Insurance (Life) 23 1.11 104.73% 3.47% 0.62 11.66% 0.70 0.2660
Insurance (Prop/Cas.) 50 0.74 25.46% 15.95% 0.62 4.52% 0.65 0.2261
Investments & Asset Management 172 1.10 67.35% 7.09% 0.73 15.38% 0.87 0.3686
Machinery 127 1.17 26.93% 13.62% 0.97 3.80% 1.01 0.4303
Metals & Mining 94 1.32 41.78% 3.06% 1.01 9.28% 1.11 0.6830
Office Equipment & Services 24 1.81 61.37% 13.71% 1.24 6.91% 1.33 0.4706
Oil/Gas (Integrated) 5 1.16 17.25% 8.91% 1.03 2.88% 1.06 0.3793
Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) 301 1.45 55.19% 1.93% 1.03 4.32% 1.07 0.6041
Oil/Gas Distribution 20 1.07 101.28% 8.05% 0.61 2.31% 0.62 0.4091
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 134 1.33 46.78% 4.22% 0.98 7.86% 1.07 0.5599
Packaging & Container 27 1.07 66.41% 13.01% 0.72 2.65% 0.74 0.3961
Paper/Forest Products 20 1.40 48.37% 8.42% 1.02 12.66% 1.17 0.5161
Power 51 0.54 79.41% 13.59% 0.34 1.47% 0.35 0.2332
Precious Metals 91 1.19 21.25% 2.08% 1.03 10.56% 1.15 0.6987
Publishing & Newspapers 33 1.26 70.12% 12.00% 0.82 8.39% 0.90 0.4364
R.E.I.T. 238 0.68 90.71% 2.42% 0.40 1.47% 0.41 0.1997
Real Estate (Development) 18 1.19 69.45% 0.00% 0.79 9.82% 0.87 0.5287
Real Estate (General/Diversified) 11 1.36 49.84% 7.10% 0.99 25.15% 1.33 0.4907
Real Estate (Operations & Services) 59 1.35 65.34% 8.46% 0.90 5.19% 0.95 0.5451
Recreation 72 0.98 36.32% 7.43% 0.77 4.96% 0.81 0.5168
Reinsurance 2 0.97 29.87% 9.80% 0.79 10.14% 0.88 0.1049
Restaurant/Dining 78 0.80 35.53% 8.96% 0.63 3.21% 0.65 0.4410
Retail (Automotive) 24 1.15 71.91% 8.89% 0.75 1.46% 0.76 0.4577
Retail (Building Supply) 17 1.12 22.84% 20.08% 0.95 1.35% 0.97 0.4176
Retail (Distributors) 88 1.44 65.63% 8.15% 0.96 2.28% 0.99 0.5220
Retail (General) 19 0.91 34.09% 10.85% 0.73 3.33% 0.75 0.4058
Retail (Grocery and Food) 12 0.45 83.43% 3.01% 0.28 1.19% 0.28 0.3711
Retail (Online) 79 1.42 12.00% 3.85% 1.30 3.37% 1.34 0.5960
Retail (Special Lines) 91 1.07 51.62% 13.81% 0.77 3.54% 0.80 0.5123
Rubber& Tires 4 0.42 119.65% 25.00% 0.22 7.70% 0.24 0.3703
Semiconductor 72 1.34 14.14% 10.19% 1.21 4.44% 1.26 0.4461
Semiconductor Equip 41 1.39 16.57% 13.77% 1.23 11.21% 1.39 0.4373
Shipbuilding & Marine 9 1.08 56.70% 0.00% 0.76 2.91% 0.78 0.5006
Shoe 10 0.75 7.43% 18.57% 0.72 3.53% 0.74 0.3572
Software (Entertainment) 92 1.26 2.19% 3.47% 1.24 2.56% 1.27 0.6844
Software (Internet) 44 1.46 21.65% 0.85% 1.25 3.94% 1.31 0.6444
Software (System & Application) 355 1.23 12.87% 4.62% 1.12 3.60% 1.16 0.5631
Steel 37 1.62 50.25% 4.18% 1.18 9.22% 1.29 0.4899
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Effective Tax
Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio rate Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk
Telecom (Wireless) 21 1.26 115.78% 2.38% 0.68 4.29% 0.71 0.6199
Telecom. Equipment 98 1.09 18.05% 6.20% 0.96 6.15% 1.02 0.4932
Telecom. Services 67 1.22 89.20% 3.72% 0.73 1.50% 0.74 0.6288
Tobacco 17 1.29 25.23% 7.27% 1.09 3.52% 1.13 0.6225
Transportation 19 1.14 42.47% 5.29% 0.87 3.70% 0.90 0.4130
Transportation (Railroads) 10 2.47 26.93% 0.00% 2.05 1.27% 2.08 0.3941
Trucking 28 1.22 103.10% 1.23% 0.69 3.31% 0.71 0.4151
Utility (General) 18 0.27 71.36% 14.66% 0.17 0.55% 0.17 0.1259
Utility (Water) 19 0.42 43.00% 9.49% 0.32 0.50% 0.32 0.3758
Total Market 7209 1.12 66.64% 8.76% 0.75 6.49% 0.80 0.4864
Total Market (without financials) 6004 1.21 34.51% 6.21% 0.96 4.02% 1.00 0.5323
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Notes
if you are looking for a pure-play beta, i.e., a beta for a business, the unlevered
beta corrected for cash is your best bet. Since even sector betas can move over
time, I have also reported the average of the this sector beta across time in the
last column. This number, for obvious reasons, is less likely to be volatile over
time.
Standard deviation in
operating income (last Average (2015-
Standard deviation of equity 10 years) 2015 2016 2017 2018 19)
66.44% 14.22% 0.83 0.74 0.91 0.78 0.83
40.77% 14.93% 1.06 1.20 0.94 0.99 1.05
34.19% 82.22% 0.61 0.85 0.76 0.67 0.70
48.89% 20.31% 0.86 0.88 0.71 0.85 0.81
38.24% 167.33% 0.59 0.47 0.38 0.59 0.47
44.28% 53.51% 1.14 1.08 0.94 0.92 1.01
18.29% NA 0.34 0.47 0.41 0.32 0.39
20.60% NA 0.37 0.36 0.36 0.39 0.38
33.49% 45.51% 0.89 0.82 0.71 1.12 0.92
50.32% 11.51% 0.98 0.99 0.78 0.63 0.88
37.29% 20.09% 0.83 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.69
32.08% 36.54% 0.41 0.46 0.42 0.54 0.46
33.40% 63.16% 0.93 0.98 0.87 0.99 0.94
44.86% 23.12% 1.00 0.95 0.85 1.01 0.96
26.32% 34.31% 0.70 0.89 0.82 0.67 0.77
54.33% 44.65% 0.75 0.81 0.68 0.96 0.87
32.60% 38.52% 0.99 1.27 1.22 1.79 1.35
42.33% 17.28% 0.91 1.01 0.98 0.95 0.97
53.58% 227.62% 0.83 0.39 0.61 1.04 0.77
41.69% 11.07% 0.99 1.00 0.83 0.94 0.96
49.87% 32.48% 1.17 1.22 0.94 0.93 1.15
32.24% 29.67% 1.22 1.18 1.02 0.95 1.11
39.46% 22.76% 0.70 0.74 0.63 1.01 0.84
68.96% 49.59% 1.06 1.19 1.25 1.36 1.26
72.45% 6.68% 0.95 0.94 0.93 1.13 1.06
37.66% 33.28% 0.95 0.86 1.05 0.96 0.98
57.29% 15.34% 1.14 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.08
62.71% 441.09% 1.38 1.16 0.97 1.08 1.16
46.69% 28.04% 1.01 0.98 0.83 0.91 0.94
40.14% 8.76% 1.19 1.07 1.01 1.13 1.04
54.34% 24.59% 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 1.02
46.15% 13.94% 0.94 0.82 0.63 0.70 0.81
29.07% 25.27% 0.58 0.77 0.62 0.56 0.60
27.33% 52.61% 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07
27.46% 23.21% 0.82 0.74 0.63 0.56 0.67
40.99% 17.34% 1.26 0.61 0.93 1.41 1.09
43.51% 36.62% 0.92 1.00 0.69 0.67 0.79
69.48% 76.39% 0.68 0.84 0.47 0.72 0.70
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Standard deviation in
operating income (last Average (2015-
Standard deviation of equity 10 years) 2015 2016 2017 2018 19)
56.32% 11.52% 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.93
48.13% 23.27% 0.91 0.89 0.82 0.82 0.89
53.01% 29.60% 0.84 0.99 0.83 0.88 0.94
34.08% 106.97% 0.92 0.81 0.77 0.89 0.82
49.69% 25.10% 0.59 0.44 0.45 0.51 0.51
35.01% 31.98% 0.83 0.68 0.67 0.74 0.73
54.64% 5.51% 0.91 0.91 0.69 0.88 0.88
37.11% 34.13% 1.04 0.92 0.87 0.82 0.94
24.63% 78.92% 0.80 0.82 0.71 0.63 0.73
27.64% 34.68% 0.75 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.80
23.90% 58.81% 0.69 0.75 0.70 0.73 0.71
35.43% 31.54% 0.73 0.81 0.68 0.87 0.79
34.36% 21.36% 1.11 1.23 0.93 1.04 1.06
75.46% 40.16% 0.91 0.87 0.89 0.96 0.95
39.46% 14.22% 1.00 1.29 1.09 1.10 1.16
17.62% 70.40% 0.76 1.38 0.95 1.25 1.08
57.36% 144.17% 0.91 0.95 0.99 1.00 0.99
36.03% 31.61% 0.67 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.67
49.29% 45.09% 1.32 1.41 1.11 1.06 1.19
27.47% 17.02% 0.70 0.91 0.60 0.55 0.70
42.72% 26.22% 0.59 0.89 0.83 0.98 0.89
20.53% 9.03% 0.53 0.50 0.33 0.32 0.41
74.54% 68.39% 1.05 1.03 1.10 0.95 1.06
39.32% 11.72% 0.88 1.07 0.96 0.83 0.93
21.22% 33.06% 0.43 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.42
40.78% 128.52% 0.82 0.93 0.47 0.61 0.74
21.50% 181.97% 1.47 1.03 1.09 0.73 1.13
42.49% 44.41% 0.89 0.99 0.62 0.80 0.85
42.73% 47.44% 0.99 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.81
16.27% 35.84% 1.12 0.89 0.65 0.47 0.80
38.18% 16.17% 0.74 0.64 0.61 0.70 0.67
33.22% 33.22% 0.85 0.76 0.63 0.65 0.73
46.94% 31.11% 1.29 1.31 1.12 0.76 1.09
44.59% 33.33% 0.81 0.83 0.77 0.87 0.85
39.63% 6.39% 0.85 0.92 0.82 0.87 0.84
33.06% 25.50% 0.75 0.77 0.46 0.44 0.54
54.22% 28.81% 1.39 1.53 1.17 1.12 1.31
49.17% 19.55% 0.85 0.81 0.76 0.82 0.81
29.03% 40.68% 0.65 1.18 0.89 0.64 0.72
42.66% 33.27% 1.17 1.32 1.11 1.16 1.20
48.66% 67.59% 1.17 1.22 1.10 0.99 1.17
55.89% 33.84% 0.94 0.84 0.85 1.01 0.89
38.65% 24.38% 0.82 0.81 0.83 0.86 0.81
65.58% 61.18% 1.13 1.46 0.96 0.91 1.15
51.90% 54.06% 1.29 1.33 1.12 1.20 1.25
50.68% 11.03% 1.06 1.25 0.99 1.02 1.10
44.32% 72.83% 0.90 0.86 1.19 1.53 1.16
000000Global Companies 000000Betas by Sector 000000January 2016
Standard deviation in
operating income (last Average (2015-
Standard deviation of equity 10 years) 2015 2016 2017 2018 19)
44.49% 44.28% 0.51 0.65 0.58 0.71 0.63
45.72% 20.40% 1.20 1.17 0.86 0.96 1.04
54.23% 33.75% 0.69 0.57 0.68 0.72 0.68
48.08% 10.95% 0.94 1.66 1.13 1.15 1.20
33.82% 27.46% 0.77 1.19 0.83 0.80 0.90
20.12% 21.84% 0.92 0.93 0.66 0.87 1.09
41.51% 34.19% 0.92 1.03 0.76 0.81 0.84
15.34% 7.22% 0.42 0.36 0.25 0.20 0.28
42.67% 21.58% 0.77 0.33 0.47 0.27 0.43
42.67% 16.11% 0.70 0.73 0.65 0.72 0.72
46.24% 14.99% 0.87 0.9 0.85 0.90 0.90
Resumen del escenario
Valores actuales: Escenario Optimista Escenario Pesimista
Celdas cambiantes:
Tasa Libre de Riesgo R 2.27% 1.97% 2.14%
Riesgo pais 1.84% 1.54% 2.57%
Celdas de resultado:
Costo de la Deuda 6.79% 6.79% 6.79%
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se creó el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.
cambiantes
s cambiantes de
Valores actuales: Escenario Optimista Escenario Pesimista
rE (US.USD) 7.98%
0.0197
0.0154
Page 44
Escenario Pesimista
0.0214
0.0257
Page 45
Valores actuales: OPTIMISTA PESIMISTA
30.00%
6.79%
70.00%
10.99%
33.00%
9.06%
WACC
Costo
Participación Costo Ajustado Ponderación
Deuda 40.0% 7.40% 4.88% 2.0%
Patrimonio 60.0% 12.13% 12.13% 7.3%
WACC 9.23% Rentabilidad Mínima Esperada
T 34.00%
Costo
Participación Costo Ajustado Ponderación
Deuda 25.1% 6.79% 4.48% 1.1%
Patrimonio 74.9% 10.99% 10.99% 8.2%
WACC 9.36%
T 34.00%
Tasa Impositiva
11.89% 11.97%
OPTIMISTA
0.2 0.0619
0.8 0.0991
0.32
Page 51
PESIMISTA
0.4 0.074
0.6 0.1213
0.34
Page 52
PROBABLE
0.3 0.0679
0.7 0.1099
0.33
Page 53
WACC
Costo
Participación Costo Ajustado Ponderación
Deuda 25.1% 6.79% 4.48% 1.1%
Patrimonio 74.9% 10.99% 10.99% 8.2%
WACC 9.36% Rentabilidad Mínima Esperada
T 34.00%