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M&A Full 2-Week Lectures
M&A Full 2-Week Lectures
Acquirer Target
Sales $1B $500M
$250M $100M
3% 3%
$1B $500M
1,0 1,3
1,79% 1,79%
6% 6%
6,59% 8,29%
Rwacc new if Acquirer issues new stock to acquire target stock and assumes its debt too?
1
Encontrando el beta desapalancado:
Acquirer Target
Sales $1B $500M
$250M $100M
3% 3%
$1B $500M
1,0 1,3
0,8 1,08
0
NOTAS:
Ba ponderado por ventas.
Dnew/Vnew si el target se compra a precio de mercado.
1
Estimaciones del WACC:
WACC Descripción
2 7,44%
Bad
3 7,16%
So so good
If the deal is “issue new stock and assume debt” then 1 and 3 are fair estimates (2 is
bad)
Would the simple averages work if Target was acquired by issuing 1
new acquirer debt?
En ese caso:
WACC Descripción
Explicación anterior, cambiando Good
1 7,36% estructura de capital por incremento
en deuda
2 7,44% Bad
Bad
3 7,16%
If the deal is “buy target by financing deal with all new debt” then only 1 is good (2 & 3
are bad)
1
Conclusiones:
gM&A = gAxSA0+gTxST0
SA0 + ST0
Sales of a Merged Entity (after Sales synergies accounted) 2
gM&A = gAxSA0+gTxST0
SA0 + ST0
If SynS% = 0 and gsyn=0%
SM&A1 = (SA0+ST0)x(1+gM&A)
SM&A1 = (SA0+ST0)x(1+gAxSA0+gTxST0)
SA0 + ST0
SM&A1 = SA0+SA0xgA + ST0+ST0xgT
SM&A1 = SA0x(1+gA)+ST0x(1+gT)
SM&A1 = SA0 x (1+gA) + ST0 x (1+gT) only when SYNS% = 0% and gSyn = 0% !!!!
Sales Synergies (numerator and/or denominator) 2
2
FCFM&A1 =
2
FCFM&A1 = [EBITAT0/SAT0]x(1-T) x SM&A1
2
FCFM&A1 = [EBITAT0/SAT0]x(1-T) x SM&A1
(1-T)
2
FCFM&A1 = [EBITAT0/SAT0]x(1-T) x SM&A1
(1-T) forward
+[SynExp%]x(1-T)xSM&A1
We must account for increase
(1-T) in depreciation tax shields due to
writing up depreciable assets as
well as reductions in tax shields
due to lower CAPex
+[SynExp%]x(1-T)xSM&A1
(1-T)
(1-T)
Lower expenses
Investing savings
Efficiency Savings
2
When there is a FCF or growth synergy related to Sales,
we must use the formula detailed here:
Otherwise, it is OK to use
FCFM&A1 = FCFAT0x(1+gnew)+ ∑Syn’s
2
When there is a FCF or growth synergy related to Sales,
we must use the formula detailed here:
Note: In M&A, is more convenient to have FCF shorthands based on EBITDA b/c asset write-ups distort EBIT figures (wrt to historical) due to
higher Depreciation. Also, by having FCF’s based on EBITDA’s, we don’t need the Net TS line (as it is already baked into the calculation of DepAT1)
Otherwise, it is OK to use
FCFM&A1 = FCFAT0x(1+gnew)+ ∑Syn’s
Why is it important to know this? Because: 2
In Scen. I (III), EAM% is higher (lower), so DAM% is lower (higher) than before
Before and after announcing M&A intentions (Rwacc IS constant) 2
Without Long Term Debt, Scen. I (III) mean higher (lower) EAM, but Em% is 100%
Rwacc IS constant!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
AND
the number of new shares to issue for ∆E is ∆E/PsAorig
Why?: Because PP = EM&A - EAM , and consequently PsAorigis equal to PsAAdj
orig
3
Consolidar Estados Financieros:
Recalculated?
Efectos en los Estados Financieros:
Introduced
Revalued?
Acquirer Target Merged entity Delta
Cash $300 Cash $100 Cash $400 $300+$100 0
A/R $200 A/R $75 A/R $240 $200+$40 X -35
Inv $170 Inv $135 Inv $270 $170+$100 X -35
Goodwill $0 Goodwill $0 Goodwill $125 See below X
PPE $150 PPE $125 PPE $350 $150+$200 X +75
OLTA $200 OLTA $175 OLTA $400 $200+$200 X +25
Tot Assets $1020 Tot Assets $610 Tot Assets $1785
=-35-35+75+25-(0+0+5)
Deal financed with 16% Debt Adj’s due to T Adj’s due to T
3
C/S+APIC $400 $250 $500 $900 C/S+APIC $400 $250 $600 $1,000
R/E $300 $100 $300 R/E $300 $100 $300
Tot Eqty $700 $350 $1,200 Tot Eqty $700 $350 $1,300
Adj’s due to T
Deal financed with 50% Debt
Ps on 12/8/12 = $48.56, # Sh = 257M, Em% = 73.7% Ps on 12/8/12 = $44.61, # Sh = 198M, Em% = 93.3%
Em% = $48.56x0.257B / [$48.56x0.257B + $4.45B] Em% = $44.61x1.35x0.198B / [$44.61x0.198Bx1.35 + 0.650B x 1.35]
Rf = 1.63% Rf = 1.63%
g_syn and SynRev%=0% (gnew=gM&A), FCFM&A1~ FCFAT0x(1+gnew) and you can add synergies
$35.9B ~ [EC+FCFAT0x(1+gnew)/(Rwacc-gnew)+NPV(Syn’s)]
Today, October 8th, much after announcement
Omnicom Publicis
Re M&A = Rf (today = 2.64%)+1.21x6% = 9.9%
Rd M&A = Rf (today = 2.64%) + 150bp = 4.14%
Rwacc M&A = 80% x Re + 20%x(1-40%) x Rd = 8.42%
FCFAT0 = FCFOMC + FCFPUB = $1.06B+$0.652B = $1.712B
Rwacc = 8.42%
gnew = gM&A = (1.55% x 14.2 + 1.7% x 8.7) / (14.2+8.7) = 1.6%
EC =
g_syn and SynRev%=0% (gnew=gM&A), FCFM&A1~ FCFAT0x(1+gnew) and you can add synergies
$35.9B ~ [$1.92B+($1.712Bx(1+1.6%))/(8.4%-1.6%)+$0.5B/(8.4%)]
$35.9B ≈ $33.5B
Nearly the same Enterprise Value as the market opined as of October 8th, 2013
Even assuming that the $35.9B merger valuation is
fine, the synergy values to achieve it seem large
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!
Circularity: Because PsAOrig changes on Sc. I or III, you need PsAAdj before estimating PsAAdj itself!