Rapport Final Micmac - Planificacion

MICMAC - PLANIFICACION Page 1 / 14
Final Micmac report

planificacion
Micmac - Method developed by © Michel Godet Free software funded by the CPA and 3IE EPITA
SUMMARY
I. VARIABLES PRESENTATION............................................................................4
1. List of variables........................................................................................................................... 4
2. Variable description.................................................................................................................... 4
1. Pobreza por Ingreso (PI)....................................................................................................................4
2. Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)............................................................................................................4
3. Tasa crecimiento PIB (TPIB)..............................................................................................................4
4. Inversion Regional (IR)......................................................................................................................4
5. Inversión Pública (IP).........................................................................................................................4
6. Desocupación (D)..............................................................................................................................5
7. Población (P).....................................................................................................................................5
8. Migración Interna (MI)......................................................................................................................5
9. Migración Externa (ME)....................................................................................................................5
10. Número de Empresas (N°E)...........................................................................................................5
11. Nivel de Educación población 18 o más años (NE+18).................................................................5
12. PROMEDIO ESCOLARIDAD (PE).....................................................................................................5
13. Tasa de atención (TA)...................................................................................................................6
14. Hacinamiento Vivienda (HV).........................................................................................................6
15. Acceso a Servicios Básicos (ASB)...................................................................................................6
II. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES..................................................................6
1. Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI)................................................................................................ 6
2. Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MPDI)...............................................................................6
III. THE STUDY RESULTS......................................................................................7
IV.......................................................................................................................................7
1. Direct influences......................................................................................................................... 7
1. MDI characteristics............................................................................................................................7
2. MDI stability......................................................................................................................................7
3. MDI row and column sum.................................................................................................................7
4. Direct influence/dependence map...................................................................................................8
5. Direct influence graph.......................................................................................................................8
2. Potential direct influences........................................................................................................... 8

1. MPDI Characteristics.........................................................................................................................8
2. MPDI stability....................................................................................................................................8
3. MPDI row and column sum...............................................................................................................9
4. Potential direct influence/dependence map....................................................................................9
5. Potential direct influence graph.......................................................................................................9
3. Indirect influences...................................................................................................................... 9
1. Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII)....................................................................................................9
2. MII row and column sum................................................................................................................10
3. Indirect influence/dependence map..............................................................................................10
4. Indirect influence graph..................................................................................................................10
4. Potential indirect influences...................................................................................................... 11

1. Matrix of Potential Indirect Influences (MPII)................................................................................11
2. MPII row and column sum..............................................................................................................11
3. Potential indirect influence/dependence map...............................................................................11
4. Potential indirect influence graph..................................................................................................12
I. VARIABLES PRESENTATION
1. LIST OF VARIABLES
1. Pobreza por Ingreso (PI)
2. Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)
3. Tasa crecimiento PIB (TPIB)
4. Inversion Regional (IR)
5. Inversión Pública (IP)
6. Desocupación (D)
7. Población (P)
8. Migración Interna (MI)
9. Migración Externa (ME)
10. Número de Empresas (N°E)
11. Nivel de Educación población 18 o más años (NE+18)
12. PROMEDIO ESCOLARIDAD (PE)
13. Tasa de atención (TA)
14. Hacinamiento Vivienda (HV)
15. Acceso a Servicios Básicos (ASB)
2. VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
1. Pobreza por Ingreso (PI)

Description:
La medición de pobreza por ingresos identifica el conjunto de hogares cuyo ingreso total
mensual no supera el valor de la linea de la pobreza.
Theme:
(By default)
2. Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)

Description:
magnitud macroeconómica que expresa el valor monetario de la producción de bienes y
servicios de demanda final de un país o región durante un periodo determinado, normalmente de
un año o trimestrales
Theme:
(By default)
3. Tasa crecimiento PIB (TPIB)

Description:
evolución del PIB
Theme:
(By default)
4. Inversion Regional (IR)

Description:
Para abordar la tarea del desarrollo en la región, el Gobierno Regional elabora políticas,
planes y programas, y utiliza instrumentos de inversión, tales como el Fondo Nacional de
Desarrollo Regional (FNDR),Fondo Regional de Iniciativa Local (FRIL),Glosas SUBDERE y
Programas Sectoriales como PMU, FOSIS IRAL o MINVU.
Theme:
(By default)
5. Inversión Pública (IP)

Description:
La inversión pública es aquel gasto con fines productivos que realiza el Estado a través del
gobierno central o de las autoridades subnacionales o locales.
Theme:
(By default)
6. Desocupación (D)
Description:
La palabra desocupación alude al caso de aquella persona perteneciente a la población
económicamente activa que se encuentra sin ocupar un puesto en el mercado de trabajo.
Theme:
(By default)
7. Población (P)
Description:
La población absoluta es el número total de personas que habitan un determinado lugar en
un período específico
Theme:
(By default)
8. Migración Interna (MI)

Description:
Las migraciones internas se producen cuando el movimiento de las personas se da dentro
del mismo país y externas cuando se produce un movimiento internacional de un país a otro
Theme:
(By default)
9. Migración Externa (ME)

Description:
Se entiende por migración externa o migración internacional a aquella que proviene de
países o regiones distintas (y a menudo alejadas) de los de destino. Es decir, se habla de
migración externa para distinguirla de la migración proveniente de sectores del mismo país o de la
misma región.
Fuente: https://concepto.de/migracion-externa/#ixzz7YPOupzC0
Theme:
(By default)
10. Número de Empresas (N°E)

Description:
cantidad de empresas en la región
Theme:
(By default)
11. Nivel de Educación población 18 o más años

(NE+18)
Description:
El nivel educativo es el nivel de educación más alto que una persona ha terminado.
Theme:
(By default)
12. PROMEDIO ESCOLARIDAD (PE)

Description:
El grado de promedio de escolaridad de la población mide el número promedio de grados

escolares aprobados por la población de 15 años y más y es un indicador importante, reconocido a
nivel internacional, del grado de escolarización de la población de un país.
Theme:
(By default)
13. Tasa de atención (TA)

Description:
Expresa el porcentaje de personas que han recibido atención médica ante un problema de
salud, enfermedad o accidente en los últimos 3 meses respecto del total de la población que
presenta un problema de salud, enfermedad o accidente durante el mismo periodo.
Theme:
(By default)
14. Hacinamiento Vivienda (HV)

Description:
la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS), define el hacinamiento como la “condición donde
el número de ocupantes excede la capacidad de espacio de vivienda”; el indicador: 3 personas o
más viviendo en una misma habitación
Theme:
(By default)
15. Acceso a Servicios Básicos (ASB)

Description:
la posibilidad de acceder a servicios básicos de calidad, como agua, saneamiento, salud,
educación, gestión de residuos, transporte, etc.
Theme:
(By default)
II. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES

1. MATRIX OF DIRECT INFLUENCES (MDI)
The Matrix of Direct Influence (MDI) describes the relations of direct influences between the
variables defining the system.
Influences range from 0 to 3, with the possibility to identify potential influences:

0: No influence
1: Weak
2: Moderate influence
3: Strong influence
P: Potential influences
2. MATRIX OF POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES (MPDI)

The Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MPDI) represents the present and potential influences
and dependences between the variables. It complements the MDI by also considering the foreseeable
future relations.
Influences range from 0 to 3:

0: No influence
1: Weak
2: Moderate influence
3: Strong influence
III. THE STUDY RESULTS

IV.
1. DIRECT INFLUENCES
1. MDI characteristics
This table presents the number of 0,1,2,3,4 of the matrix and shows the rate of filling
calculated as a ratio between the number of MDI values different from 0 and the total number of
elements of the matrix.
INDICATOR VALUE
Matrix size 15
Number of iterations 2
Number of zeros 59
Number of ones 82
Number of twos 59
Number of threes 25
Number of P 0
Total 166
Fillrate 73,77778%
2. MDI stability
If it were demonstrated that any matrix must converge towards stability at the end of a certain
number of iterations (generally 6 or 7 for a matrix of size 30), it would be interesting to be able to
follow the evolution of this stability during successive multiplications. In the absence of
mathematically established criteria, it was chosen to rely on the number of permutations (bullets
sorting) necessary to each iteration to classify, by influence and dependence, the whole set of the
variables of the MDI matrix.
ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

1 85 % 84 %
2 105 % 100 %
3. MDI row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MDI
matrix.
N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

ROWS COLUMNS
1 Pobreza por Ingreso 21 25
2 Producto Interno Bruto 18 25
3 Tasa crecimiento PIB 11 24
4 Inversion Regional 27 26

ROWS COLUMNS
5 Inversión Pública 27 18
6 Desocupación 11 15
7 Población 25 15
8 Migración Interna 10 9
9 Migración Externa 24 21
10 Número de Empresas 25 15
11 Nivel de Educación población 18 o más 22 12
años
12 PROMEDIO ESCOLARIDAD 9 11
13 Tasa de atención 10 15
14 Hacinamiento Vivienda 16 21
15 Acceso a Servicios Básicos 19 23
Totals 275 275
4. Direct influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the matrix of direct influences MDI.
5. Direct influence graph

This graph is set starting from the matrix of direct influences MDI.
2. POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES
1. MPDI Characteristics
This table presents the number of 0,1,2,3,4 of the matrix and shows the rate of filling
calculated as a ratio between the number of MPDI values different from 0 and the total number of
elements of the matrix.
INDICATOR VALUE
Matrix size 15
Number of iterations 2
Number of zeros 59
Number of ones 82
Number of twos 59
Number of threes 25
Number of P 0
Total 166
Fillrate 73,77778%
2. MPDI stability
If it were demonstrated that any matrix must converge towards stability at the end of a certain
number of iterations (generally 6 or 7 for a matrix of size 30), it would be interesting to be able to
follow the evolution of this stability during successive multiplications. In the absence of
mathematically established criteria, it was chosen to rely on the number of permutations (bullets
sorting) necessary to each iteration to classify, by influence and dependence, the whole set of the
variables of the MPDI matrix.
ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

1 85 % 84 %
2 105 % 100 %
3. MPDI row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MPDI
matrix.

ROWS COLUMNS
7 Población 25 15
años
Totals 275 275
4. Potential direct influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the matrice of potential direct influences MPDI.
5. Potential direct influence graph

This graph is set starting from the matrice of potential direct influences MPDI.
3. INDIRECT INFLUENCES
1. Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII)

The Matrix of the Indirect Influences (MII) corresponds to the Matrix of the Direct Influences
(MID) enhanced in power, by successive iterations. From this matrix a new classification of the
variables emphasizes the most important variables of the system. Indeed, one detects the hidden
variables, thanks to a program of matrix multiplication applied to an indirect classification. This
program allows studying the diffusion of the impacts by the ways and the loops of feedback, and
consequently to treat on a hierarchical basis the variables: by order of influence, by considering the
number of path and loops of length 1, 2... N generated by each variable; by order of dependence, by
considering the number of paths and loops of length 1, 2... N reaching each variable. Generally, the
classification becomes stable from a multiplication of the order 3, 4 or 5.
Values represent indirect influence rates
2. MII row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MII matrix.

ROWS COLUMNS
7 Población 8975 5524
años
Totals 275 275
1 : PI
2 : PIB
3 : TPIB
4 : IR
5 : IP
6:D
7:P
8 : MI
9 : ME
10 : N°E
11 : NE+18
12 : PE
13 : TA
14 : HV
15 : ASB
1 : PI 642 671 636 739 498 430 447 271 582 387 374 286 427 610 666
2 : PIB 566 536 522 550 385 331 337 204 461 297 302 265 372 461 515
3 : TPIB 384 383 387 442 305 263 258 154 349 224 215 167 253 376 380
4 : IR 794 784 748 828 586 485 482 318 682 471 449 362 542 705 750
5 : IP 804 797 768 871 604 500 499 323 703 481 452 364 539 722 771
6:D 372 369 348 378 271 226 221 145 317 222 209 174 251 337 349
7:P 767 781 738 848 596 498 494 314 678 468 449 343 525 730 746
8 : MI 325 325 313 352 246 206 207 123 280 192 183 152 215 297 306
© LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC
9 : ME 749 762 727 852 582 496 512 304 663 437 437 330 499 700 747
10 : N°E 814 783 786 892 608 513 511 314 707 463 441 361 523 715 781
11 : NE+18 668 627 617 692 489 395 388 257 570 376 358 299 446 567 606
12 : PE 255 272 233 279 189 160 172 107 222 153 156 116 175 232 263
13 : TA 369 369 373 437 287 246 248 146 338 220 197 164 227 344 379
14 : HV 515 521 511 593 395 341 350 204 455 304 283 226 327 472 519
15 : ASB 596 591 594 684 472 399 398 242 535 348 335 256 398 559 581
3. Indirect influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the indirect influence matrix MII.
4. Indirect influence graph

This graph is set starting from the indirect influence matrix MII.w
4. POTENTIAL INDIRECT INFLUENCES
1. Matrix of Potential Indirect Influences (MPII)

The Matrix of the Potential Indirect Influences (MPII) corresponds to the Matrix of the Potential
Direct Influences (MIDP) enhanced in power, by successive iterations. From this matrix, a new
classification of the variables emphasizes the potentially most important variables of the system
Values represent potential indirect influence rates
2. MPII row and column sum

This table allows getting information about the sums in the rows and columns of the MIIP
matrix.

ROWS COLUMNS
7 Población 8975 5524
años
Totals 275 275
1 : PI
2 : PIB
3 : TPIB
4 : IR
5 : IP
6:D
7:P
8 : MI
9 : ME
10 : N°E
11 : NE+18
12 : PE
13 : TA
14 : HV
15 : ASB
1 : PI 642 671 636 739 498 430 447 271 582 387 374 286 427 610 666
2 : PIB 566 536 522 550 385 331 337 204 461 297 302 265 372 461 515
3 : TPIB 384 383 387 442 305 263 258 154 349 224 215 167 253 376 380
4 : IR 794 784 748 828 586 485 482 318 682 471 449 362 542 705 750
5 : IP 804 797 768 871 604 500 499 323 703 481 452 364 539 722 771
6:D 372 369 348 378 271 226 221 145 317 222 209 174 251 337 349
7:P 767 781 738 848 596 498 494 314 678 468 449 343 525 730 746
8 : MI 325 325 313 352 246 206 207 123 280 192 183 152 215 297 306
© LIPSOR-EPITA-MICMAC
9 : ME 749 762 727 852 582 496 512 304 663 437 437 330 499 700 747
10 : N°E 814 783 786 892 608 513 511 314 707 463 441 361 523 715 781
11 : NE+18 668 627 617 692 489 395 388 257 570 376 358 299 446 567 606
12 : PE 255 272 233 279 189 160 172 107 222 153 156 116 175 232 263
13 : TA 369 369 373 437 287 246 248 146 338 220 197 164 227 344 379
14 : HV 515 521 511 593 395 341 350 204 455 304 283 226 327 472 519
15 : ASB 596 591 594 684 472 399 398 242 535 348 335 256 398 559 581
3. Potential indirect influence/dependence map

This plan is set starting from the potential indirect influences matrix MIIP.
4. Potential indirect influence graph

This graph is set starting from the potential indirect influences matrix MIIP.

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MICMAC - PLANIFICACION Page 1 / 14

Final Micmac report

II. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES..................................................................6

1. Matrix of Direct Influences (MDI)................................................................................................ 6

2. Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MPDI)...............................................................................6

III. THE STUDY RESULTS......................................................................................7

2. Potential direct influences........................................................................................................... 8

4. Potential indirect influences...................................................................................................... 11

1. Pobreza por Ingreso (PI)

2. Producto Interno Bruto (PIB)

3. Tasa crecimiento PIB (TPIB)

4. Inversion Regional (IR)

5. Inversión Pública (IP)

8. Migración Interna (MI)

9. Migración Externa (ME)

10. Número de Empresas (N°E)

11. Nivel de Educación población 18 o más años

12. PROMEDIO ESCOLARIDAD (PE)

El grado de promedio de escolaridad de la población mide el número promedio de grados

13. Tasa de atención (TA)

14. Hacinamiento Vivienda (HV)

15. Acceso a Servicios Básicos (ASB)

II. THE MATRICES OF THE ENTRIES

Influences range from 0 to 3, with the possibility to identify potential influences:

2. MATRIX OF POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES (MPDI)

Influences range from 0 to 3:

III. THE STUDY RESULTS

ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

3. MDI row and column sum

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

4. Direct influence/dependence map

5. Direct influence graph

2. POTENTIAL DIRECT INFLUENCES

ITERATION INFLUENCE DEPENDENCE

3. MPDI row and column sum

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

4. Potential direct influence/dependence map

5. Potential direct influence graph

1. Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII)

Values represent indirect influence rates

2. MII row and column sum

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

3. Indirect influence/dependence map

4. Indirect influence graph

4. POTENTIAL INDIRECT INFLUENCES

1. Matrix of Potential Indirect Influences (MPII)

Values represent potential indirect influence rates

2. MPII row and column sum

N° VARIABLE TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF

3. Potential indirect influence/dependence map

4. Potential indirect influence graph

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