SECUENCIA DIDACTICA N° 1

Nombre variable de interés (correlación)

Y = a0 + a1 X
a0 = 0.6167
a1 = -0.0022

X Y XY
Año 1 Ene 1 2 2
Feb 2 2 4
Mar 3 0 0
Abr 4 0 0
May 5 1 5
Jun 6 0 0
Jul 7 0 0
Ago 8 0 0
Sep 9 0 0
Oct 10 0 0
Nov 11 1 11
Dic 12 1 12
Año 2 Ene 13 1 13
Feb 14 2 28
Mar 15 1 15
Abr 16 0 0
May 17 0 0
Jun 18 0 0
Jul 19 1 19
Ago 20 0 0
Sep 21 0 0
Oct 22 0 0
Nov 23 0 0
Dic 24 0 0
Año 3 Ene 25 2 50
Feb 26 2 52
Mar 27 1 27
Abr 28 0 0
May 29 1 29
Jun 30 0 0
Jul 31 2 62
Ago 32 0 0
Sep 33 0 0
Oct 34 0 0
Nov 35 1 35
Dic 36 0 0
Año 4 Ene 37 1 37
Feb 38 2 76
Mar 39 0 0
Abr 40 0 0
May 41 0 0
Jun 42 0 0
Jul 43 0 0
Ago 44 0 0
Sep 45 0 0
Oct 46 0 0
Nov 47 0 0
Dic 48 1 48
Año 5 Ene 49 2 98
Feb 50 1 50
Mar 51 0 0
Abr 52 0 0
May 53 1 53
Jun 54 0 0
Jul 55 0 0
Ago 56 0 0
Sep 57 0 0
Oct 58 0 0
Nov 59 0 0
Dic 60 1 60
Año 6 Ene 61 1 61
Feb 62 2 124
Mar 63 1 63
Abr 64 0 0
May 65 0 0
Jun 66 0 0
Jul 67 1 67
Ago 68 0 0
Sep 69 0 0
Oct 70 0 0
Nov 71 0 0
Dic 72 0 0
Año 7 Ene 73 3 219
Feb 74 2 148
Mar 75 1 75
Abr 76 0 0
May 77 1 77
Jun 78 0 0
Jul 79 1 79
Ago 80 0 0
Sep 81 0 0
 Oct 82 0 0
Nov 83 1 83
Dic 84 0 0
Año 8 Ene 85 2 170
Feb 86 2 172
Mar 87 0 0
Abr 88 0 0
May 89 0 0
Jun 90 0 0
Jul 91 1 91
Ago 92 0 0
Sep 93 0 0
Oct 94 0 0
Nov 95 0 0
Dic 96 0 0
ΣY = 49 ΣXY = 2215 ΣY2 =
Promedio 0.510

Error estándar sy,x = 0.7475

Variación Total Σ(Y - Ȳ) =
2
53.993
Variación No Explicada Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 53.636
Variación Explicada Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 0.357
Coeficiente de Determinación r = 2
0.0066
Coeficiente de Correlación r = -0.0813

f(x) = − 0.00219072164948453 x + 0.616666666666667

R² = 0.00655314459842105
1

f(x) = − 0.00219072164948453 x + 0.616666666666667

R² = 0.00655314459842105

0
0 12 24 36 48 60

-1
Y2 Yest (Y - Ȳ)2 (Y – Yest)2 (Yest - Ȳ)2 Yest + sy,x Yest - sy,x
4 0.615 2.219 1.9196 0.011 1.362 -0.133
4 0.612 2.219 1.9257 0.010 1.360 -0.135
0 0.610 0.261 0.3722 0.010 1.358 -0.137
0 0.608 0.261 0.3695 0.010 1.355 -0.140
1 0.606 0.240 0.1555 0.009 1.353 -0.142
0 0.604 0.261 0.3642 0.009 1.351 -0.144
0 0.601 0.261 0.3616 0.008 1.349 -0.146
0 0.599 0.261 0.3589 0.008 1.347 -0.148
0 0.597 0.261 0.3563 0.007 1.344 -0.151
0 0.595 0.261 0.3537 0.007 1.342 -0.153
1 0.593 0.240 0.1661 0.007 1.340 -0.155
1 0.590 0.240 0.1679 0.006 1.338 -0.157
1 0.588 0.240 0.1697 0.006 1.336 -0.159
4 0.586 2.219 1.9997 0.006 1.333 -0.162
1 0.584 0.240 0.1733 0.005 1.331 -0.164
0 0.582 0.261 0.3381 0.005 1.329 -0.166
0 0.579 0.261 0.3356 0.005 1.327 -0.168
0 0.577 0.261 0.3330 0.004 1.325 -0.170
1 0.575 0.240 0.1807 0.004 1.322 -0.173
0 0.573 0.261 0.3280 0.004 1.320 -0.175
0 0.571 0.261 0.3255 0.004 1.318 -0.177
0 0.568 0.261 0.3230 0.003 1.316 -0.179
0 0.566 0.261 0.3205 0.003 1.314 -0.181
0 0.564 0.261 0.3180 0.003 1.311 -0.184
4 0.562 2.219 2.0687 0.003 1.309 -0.186
4 0.560 2.219 2.0750 0.002 1.307 -0.188
1 0.557 0.240 0.1960 0.002 1.305 -0.190
0 0.555 0.261 0.3081 0.002 1.303 -0.192
1 0.553 0.240 0.1999 0.002 1.300 -0.195
0 0.551 0.261 0.3033 0.002 1.298 -0.197
4 0.549 2.219 2.1069 0.001 1.296 -0.199
0 0.546 0.261 0.2984 0.001 1.294 -0.201
0 0.544 0.261 0.2960 0.001 1.292 -0.203
0 0.542 0.261 0.2937 0.001 1.289 -0.206
1 0.540 0.240 0.2119 0.001 1.287 -0.208
0 0.538 0.261 0.2889 0.001 1.285 -0.210
1 0.535 0.240 0.2159 0.001 1.283 -0.212
4 0.533 2.219 2.1518 0.001 1.281 -0.214
0 0.531 0.261 0.2819 0.000 1.278 -0.217
0 0.529 0.261 0.2795 0.000 1.276 -0.219
0 0.527 0.261 0.2772 0.000 1.274 -0.221
0 0.524 0.261 0.2749 0.000 1.272 -0.223
0 0.522 0.261 0.2726 0.000 1.270 -0.225
0 0.520 0.261 0.2703 0.000 1.267 -0.228
0 0.518 0.261 0.2680 0.000 1.265 -0.230
0 0.516 0.261 0.2657 0.000 1.263 -0.232
0 0.513 0.261 0.2635 0.000 1.261 -0.234
1 0.511 0.240 0.2390 0.000 1.259 -0.236
4 0.509 2.219 2.2234 0.000 1.256 -0.239
1 0.507 0.240 0.2433 0.000 1.254 -0.241
0 0.505 0.261 0.2545 0.000 1.252 -0.243
0 0.502 0.261 0.2523 0.000 1.250 -0.245
1 0.500 0.240 0.2499 0.000 1.248 -0.247
0 0.498 0.261 0.2479 0.000 1.245 -0.250
0 0.496 0.261 0.2457 0.000 1.243 -0.252
0 0.494 0.261 0.2435 0.000 1.241 -0.254
0 0.491 0.261 0.2414 0.000 1.239 -0.256
0 0.489 0.261 0.2392 0.000 1.237 -0.258
0 0.487 0.261 0.2371 0.001 1.234 -0.261
1 0.485 0.240 0.2655 0.001 1.232 -0.263
1 0.483 0.240 0.2678 0.001 1.230 -0.265
4 0.480 2.219 2.3095 0.001 1.228 -0.267
1 0.478 0.240 0.2724 0.001 1.226 -0.269
0 0.476 0.261 0.2265 0.001 1.223 -0.272
0 0.474 0.261 0.2244 0.001 1.221 -0.274
0 0.472 0.261 0.2223 0.002 1.219 -0.276
1 0.469 0.240 0.2816 0.002 1.217 -0.278
0 0.467 0.261 0.2182 0.002 1.215 -0.280
0 0.465 0.261 0.2161 0.002 1.212 -0.283
0 0.463 0.261 0.2141 0.002 1.210 -0.285
0 0.461 0.261 0.2121 0.002 1.208 -0.287
0 0.458 0.261 0.2100 0.003 1.206 -0.289
9 0.456 6.198 6.4714 0.003 1.204 -0.291
4 0.454 2.219 2.3904 0.003 1.201 -0.294
1 0.452 0.240 0.3006 0.003 1.199 -0.296
0 0.450 0.261 0.2021 0.004 1.197 -0.298
1 0.447 0.240 0.3055 0.004 1.195 -0.300
0 0.445 0.261 0.1981 0.004 1.193 -0.302
1 0.443 0.240 0.3104 0.005 1.190 -0.305
0 0.441 0.261 0.1942 0.005 1.188 -0.307
0 0.439 0.261 0.1923 0.005 1.186 -0.309
 0 0.436 0.261 0.1904 0.005 1.184 -0.311
1 0.434 0.240 0.3202 0.006 1.182 -0.313
0 0.432 0.261 0.1865 0.006 1.179 -0.316
4 0.430 2.219 2.4658 0.007 1.177 -0.318
4 0.428 2.219 2.4728 0.007 1.175 -0.320
0 0.425 0.261 0.1809 0.007 1.173 -0.322
0 0.423 0.261 0.1790 0.008 1.171 -0.324
0 0.421 0.261 0.1772 0.008 1.168 -0.327
0 0.419 0.261 0.1753 0.008 1.166 -0.329
1 0.417 0.240 0.3405 0.009 1.164 -0.331
0 0.414 0.261 0.1716 0.009 1.162 -0.333
0 0.412 0.261 0.1698 0.010 1.160 -0.335
0 0.410 0.261 0.1680 0.010 1.157 -0.338
0 0.408 0.261 0.1662 0.011 1.155 -0.340
0 0.406 0.261 0.1644 0.011 1.153 -0.342
79 Σ(Y - Ȳ)2 = 53.990 Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 53.636 Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 0.357 Σ
48 60 72 84 96 108
Yest - sy,x <= Y <= Yest + sy,x 0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
83 86.46%
SECUENCIA DIDACTICA N° 1

Nombre variable de interés (correlación)

Y = a0 + a1 X
a0 = 0.4557
a1 = -0.0006

X Y XY Y2
Año 1 Ene 1 0 0 0
Feb 2 1 2 1
Mar 3 2 6 4
Abr 4 0 0 0
May 5 0 0 0
Jun 6 0 0 0
Jul 7 0 0 0
Ago 8 1 8 1
Sep 9 0 0 0
Oct 10 0 0 0
Nov 11 0 0 0
Dic 12 0 0 0
Año 2 Ene 13 1 13 1
Feb 14 1 14 1
Mar 15 1 15 1
Abr 16 1 16 1
May 17 0 0 0
Jun 18 0 0 0
Jul 19 0 0 0
Ago 20 0 0 0
Sep 21 1 21 1
Oct 22 0 0 0
Nov 23 0 0 0
Dic 24 1 24 1
Año 3 Ene 25 1 25 1
Feb 26 0 0 0
Mar 27 1 27 1
Abr 28 0 0 0
May 29 0 0 0
Jun 30 0 0 0
Jul 31 0 0 0
Ago 32 0 0 0
Sep 33 0 0 0
Oct 34 1 34 1
Nov 35 0 0 0
Dic 36 0 0 0
Año 4 Ene 37 1 37 1
Feb 38 2 76 4
Mar 39 0 0 0
Abr 40 0 0 0
May 41 0 0 0
Jun 42 1 42 1
Jul 43 0 0 0
Ago 44 0 0 0
Sep 45 0 0 0
Oct 46 1 46 1
Nov 47 0 0 0
Dic 48 1 48 1
Año 5 Ene 49 3 147 9
Feb 50 1 50 1
Mar 51 2 102 4
Abr 52 0 0 0
May 53 0 0 0
Jun 54 0 0 0
Jul 55 0 0 0
Ago 56 1 56 1
Sep 57 0 0 0
Oct 58 0 0 0
Nov 59 0 0 0
Dic 60 1 60 1
Año 6 Ene 61 1 61 1
Feb 62 0 0 0
Mar 63 1 63 1
Abr 64 1 64 1
May 65 0 0 0
Jun 66 0 0 0
Jul 67 0 0 0
Ago 68 0 0 0
Sep 69 1 69 1
Oct 70 0 0 0
Nov 71 0 0 0
Dic 72 1 72 1
Año 7 Ene 73 1 73 1
Feb 74 1 74 1
Mar 75 1 75 1
Abr 76 0 0 0
May 77 0 0 0
Jun 78 0 0 0
Jul 79 0 0 0
Ago 80 0 0 0
Sep 81 0 0 0
 Oct 82 1 82 1
Nov 83 0 0 0
Dic 84 2 168 4
Año 8 Ene 85 1 85 1
Feb 86 0 0 0
Mar 87 0 0 0
Abr 88 0 0 0
May 89 0 0 0
Jun 90 0 0 0
Jul 91 0 0 0
Ago 92 0 0 0
Sep 93 0 0 0
Oct 94 1 94 1
Nov 95 0 0 0
Dic 96 1 96 1
ΣY = 41 ΣXY = 1945 ΣY2 = 55
Promedio 0.427

Error estándar sy,x = 0.6247

Variación Total Σ(Y - Ȳ) = 2
37.4905
Variación No Explicada Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 37.4639
Variación Explicada Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 0.0266
Coeficiente de Determinación r = 2
0.0007
Coeficiente de Correlación r = -0.0266

f(x) = − 0.000590070537167662 x + 0.455701754385965

0 R² = 0.000684672009783949
0 12 24 36 48 60

-2
-2
 Yest (Y - Ȳ)2 (Y – Yest)2 (Yest - Ȳ)2 Yest + sy,x Yest - sy,x
0.455 0.182 0.2071 0.0008 1.080 -0.170
0.455 0.328 0.2976 0.0008 1.079 -0.170
0.454 2.474 2.3904 0.0007 1.079 -0.171
0.453 0.182 0.2055 0.0007 1.078 -0.171
0.453 0.182 0.2049 0.0007 1.077 -0.172
0.452 0.182 0.2044 0.0006 1.077 -0.173
0.452 0.182 0.2039 0.0006 1.076 -0.173
0.451 0.328 0.3015 0.0006 1.076 -0.174
0.450 0.182 0.2028 0.0005 1.075 -0.174
0.450 0.182 0.2022 0.0005 1.074 -0.175
0.449 0.182 0.2017 0.0005 1.074 -0.176
0.449 0.182 0.2012 0.0005 1.073 -0.176
0.448 0.328 0.3048 0.0004 1.073 -0.177
0.447 0.328 0.3055 0.0004 1.072 -0.177
0.447 0.328 0.3061 0.0004 1.071 -0.178
0.446 0.328 0.3068 0.0004 1.071 -0.179
0.446 0.182 0.1985 0.0003 1.070 -0.179
0.445 0.182 0.1979 0.0003 1.070 -0.180
0.444 0.182 0.1974 0.0003 1.069 -0.180
0.444 0.182 0.1969 0.0003 1.068 -0.181
0.443 0.328 0.3101 0.0003 1.068 -0.182
0.443 0.182 0.1958 0.0002 1.067 -0.182
0.442 0.182 0.1953 0.0002 1.067 -0.183
0.441 0.328 0.3121 0.0002 1.066 -0.183
0.441 0.328 0.3128 0.0002 1.065 -0.184
0.440 0.182 0.1937 0.0002 1.065 -0.185
0.440 0.328 0.3142 0.0002 1.064 -0.185
0.439 0.182 0.1926 0.0001 1.064 -0.186
0.438 0.182 0.1921 0.0001 1.063 -0.186
0.438 0.182 0.1916 0.0001 1.062 -0.187
0.437 0.182 0.1911 0.0001 1.062 -0.188
0.437 0.182 0.1905 0.0001 1.061 -0.188
0.436 0.182 0.1900 0.0001 1.061 -0.189
0.435 0.328 0.3189 0.0001 1.060 -0.189
0.435 0.182 0.1890 0.0001 1.059 -0.190
0.434 0.182 0.1884 0.0000 1.059 -0.191
0.434 0.328 0.3209 0.0000 1.058 -0.191
0.433 2.474 2.4558 0.0000 1.058 -0.192
0.432 0.182 0.1869 0.0000 1.057 -0.192
0.432 0.182 0.1864 0.0000 1.056 -0.193
0.431 0.182 0.1858 0.0000 1.056 -0.194
0.431 0.328 0.3243 0.0000 1.055 -0.194
0.430 0.182 0.1848 0.0000 1.055 -0.195
0.429 0.182 0.1843 0.0000 1.054 -0.195
0.429 0.182 0.1838 0.0000 1.053 -0.196
0.428 0.328 0.3271 0.0000 1.053 -0.197
0.428 0.182 0.1828 0.0000 1.052 -0.197
0.427 0.328 0.3284 0.0000 1.052 -0.198
0.426 6.620 6.6239 0.0000 1.051 -0.198
0.426 0.328 0.3298 0.0000 1.050 -0.199
0.425 2.474 2.4803 0.0000 1.050 -0.200
0.425 0.182 0.1802 0.0000 1.049 -0.200
0.424 0.182 0.1797 0.0000 1.049 -0.201
0.423 0.182 0.1792 0.0000 1.048 -0.201
0.423 0.182 0.1787 0.0000 1.047 -0.202
0.422 0.328 0.3340 0.0000 1.047 -0.203
0.422 0.182 0.1777 0.0000 1.046 -0.203
0.421 0.182 0.1772 0.0000 1.046 -0.204
0.420 0.182 0.1767 0.0000 1.045 -0.204
0.420 0.328 0.3367 0.0001 1.044 -0.205
0.419 0.328 0.3374 0.0001 1.044 -0.206
0.419 0.182 0.1751 0.0001 1.043 -0.206
0.418 0.328 0.3388 0.0001 1.043 -0.207
0.417 0.328 0.3395 0.0001 1.042 -0.207
0.417 0.182 0.1736 0.0001 1.041 -0.208
0.416 0.182 0.1731 0.0001 1.041 -0.209
0.416 0.182 0.1726 0.0001 1.040 -0.209
0.415 0.182 0.1721 0.0001 1.040 -0.210
0.414 0.328 0.3430 0.0002 1.039 -0.210
0.414 0.182 0.1711 0.0002 1.038 -0.211
0.413 0.182 0.1707 0.0002 1.038 -0.212
0.413 0.328 0.3452 0.0002 1.037 -0.212
0.412 0.328 0.3459 0.0002 1.037 -0.213
0.411 0.328 0.3466 0.0002 1.036 -0.213
0.411 0.328 0.3473 0.0003 1.035 -0.214
0.410 0.182 0.1682 0.0003 1.035 -0.215
0.410 0.182 0.1677 0.0003 1.034 -0.215
0.409 0.182 0.1672 0.0003 1.034 -0.216
0.408 0.182 0.1667 0.0004 1.033 -0.216
0.408 0.182 0.1662 0.0004 1.032 -0.217
0.407 0.182 0.1657 0.0004 1.032 -0.218
0.407 0.328 0.3522 0.0004 1.031 -0.218
0.406 0.182 0.1648 0.0004 1.031 -0.219
0.405 2.474 2.5431 0.0005 1.030 -0.219
0.405 0.328 0.3544 0.0005 1.029 -0.220
0.404 0.182 0.1633 0.0005 1.029 -0.221
0.404 0.182 0.1628 0.0006 1.028 -0.221
0.403 0.182 0.1623 0.0006 1.028 -0.222
0.402 0.182 0.1618 0.0006 1.027 -0.222
0.402 0.182 0.1614 0.0006 1.026 -0.223
0.401 0.182 0.1609 0.0007 1.026 -0.224
0.401 0.182 0.1604 0.0007 1.025 -0.224
0.400 0.182 0.1599 0.0007 1.025 -0.225
0.399 0.328 0.3608 0.0008 1.024 -0.225
0.399 0.182 0.1590 0.0008 1.023 -0.226
0.398 0.328 0.3623 0.0008 1.023 -0.227
Σ(Y - Ȳ)2 = 37.490 Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 37.464 Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 0.0266 Σ

60 72 84 96 108
Yest - sy,x <= Y <= Yest + sy,x 0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
91 94.79%
SECUENCIA DIDACTICA N° 1

Nombre variable de interés (correlación)

Y = a0 + a1 X
a0 = 42.0070
a1 = -0.0049

X Y XY
Año 1 Ene 1 42 42
Feb 2 42 84
Mar 3 43 129
Abr 4 43 172
May 5 41 205
Jun 6 41 246
Jul 7 42 294
Ago 8 42 336
Sep 9 42 378
Oct 10 42 420
Nov 11 42 462
Dic 12 43 516
Año 2 Ene 13 43 559
Feb 14 42 588
Mar 15 41 615
Abr 16 41 656
May 17 42 714
Jun 18 42 756
Jul 19 43 817
Ago 20 42 840
Sep 21 42 882
Oct 22 42 924
Nov 23 42 966
Dic 24 41 984
Año 3 Ene 25 42 1050
Feb 26 42 1092
Mar 27 41 1107
Abr 28 40 1120
May 29 41 1189
Jun 30 40 1200
Jul 31 42 1302
Ago 32 42 1344
Sep 33 42 1386
Oct 34 42 1428
Nov 35 41 1435
Dic 36 43 1548
Año 4 Ene 37 43 1591
Feb 38 43 1634
Mar 39 42 1638
Abr 40 42 1680
May 41 42 1722
Jun 42 43 1806
Jul 43 42 1806
Ago 44 42 1848
Sep 45 42 1890
Oct 46 42 1932
Nov 47 42 1974
Dic 48 43 2064
Año 5 Ene 49 42 2058
Feb 50 41 2050
Mar 51 40 2040
Abr 52 40 2080
May 53 41 2173
Jun 54 42 2268
Jul 55 42 2310
Ago 56 42 2352
Sep 57 42 2394
Oct 58 42 2436
Nov 59 42 2478
Dic 60 41 2460
Año 6 Ene 61 41 2501
Feb 62 42 2604
Mar 63 41 2583
Abr 64 42 2688
May 65 42 2730
Jun 66 42 2772
Jul 67 41 2747
Ago 68 40 2720
Sep 69 42 2898
Oct 70 42 2940
Nov 71 42 2982
Dic 72 43 3096
Año 7 Ene 73 43 3139
Feb 74 42 3108
Mar 75 41 3075
Abr 76 42 3192
May 77 41 3157
Jun 78 42 3276
Jul 79 42 3318
Ago 80 42 3360
Sep 81 42 3402
 Oct 82 40 3280
Nov 83 41 3403
Dic 84 42 3528
Año 8 Ene 85 42 3570
Feb 86 42 3612
Mar 87 40 3480
Abr 88 42 3696
May 89 42 3738
Jun 90 42 3780
Jul 91 41 3731
Ago 92 42 3864
Sep 93 42 3906
Oct 94 42 3948
Nov 95 40 3800
Dic 96 42 4032
ΣY = 4010 ΣXY = 194126 ΣY2 =
Promedio 41.771

Error estándar sy,x = 0.7584

Variación Total Σ(Y - Ȳ) =
2
56.981
Variación No Explicada Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 55.210
Variación Explicada Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 1.770
Coeficiente de Determinación r = 2
0.0311
Coeficiente de Correlación r = -0.1763

44

43

42
f(x) = − 0.00486977753662507 x + 42.0070175438597
R² = 0.0306934917743662

41
41

40

39
0 12 24 36 48 60
Y2 Yest (Y - Ȳ)2 (Y – Yest)2 (Yest - Ȳ)2 Yest + sy,x Yest - sy,x
1764 42.002 0.053 0.0000 0.053 42.760 41.244
1764 41.997 0.053 0.0000 0.051 42.756 41.239
1849 41.992 1.511 1.0155 0.049 42.751 41.234
1849 41.987 1.511 1.0254 0.047 42.746 41.229
1681 41.983 0.594 0.9653 0.045 42.741 41.224
1681 41.978 0.594 0.9557 0.043 42.736 41.219
1764 41.973 0.053 0.0007 0.041 42.731 41.214
1764 41.968 0.053 0.0010 0.039 42.726 41.209
1764 41.963 0.053 0.0014 0.037 42.721 41.205
1764 41.958 0.053 0.0018 0.035 42.716 41.200
1764 41.953 0.053 0.0022 0.033 42.711 41.195
1849 41.948 1.511 1.1063 0.031 42.707 41.190
1849 41.943 1.511 1.1166 0.030 42.702 41.185
1764 41.938 0.053 0.0038 0.028 42.697 41.180
1681 41.934 0.594 0.8714 0.026 42.692 41.175
1681 41.929 0.594 0.8623 0.025 42.687 41.170
1764 41.924 0.053 0.0058 0.023 42.682 41.165
1764 41.919 0.053 0.0066 0.022 42.677 41.160
1849 41.914 1.511 1.1796 0.020 42.672 41.156
1764 41.909 0.053 0.0083 0.019 42.667 41.151
1764 41.904 0.053 0.0092 0.018 42.662 41.146
1764 41.899 0.053 0.0102 0.016 42.658 41.141
1764 41.894 0.053 0.0112 0.015 42.653 41.136
1681 41.889 0.594 0.7910 0.014 42.648 41.131
1764 41.885 0.053 0.0133 0.013 42.643 41.126
1764 41.880 0.053 0.0145 0.012 42.638 41.121
1681 41.875 0.594 0.7651 0.011 42.633 41.116
1600 41.870 3.136 3.4962 0.010 42.628 41.111
1681 41.865 0.594 0.7481 0.009 42.623 41.107
1600 41.860 3.136 3.4596 0.008 42.618 41.102
1764 41.855 0.053 0.0210 0.007 42.613 41.097
1764 41.850 0.053 0.0224 0.006 42.609 41.092
1764 41.845 0.053 0.0239 0.006 42.604 41.087
1764 41.840 0.053 0.0255 0.005 42.599 41.082
1681 41.836 0.594 0.6981 0.004 42.594 41.077
1849 41.831 1.511 1.3675 0.004 42.589 41.072
1849 41.826 1.511 1.3790 0.003 42.584 41.067
1849 41.821 1.511 1.3905 0.002 42.579 41.062
1764 41.816 0.053 0.0339 0.002 42.574 41.058
1764 41.811 0.053 0.0357 0.002 42.569 41.053
1764 41.806 0.053 0.0376 0.001 42.564 41.048
1849 41.801 1.511 1.4371 0.001 42.560 41.043
1764 41.796 0.053 0.0415 0.001 42.555 41.038
1764 41.791 0.053 0.0435 0.000 42.550 41.033
1764 41.787 0.053 0.0456 0.000 42.545 41.028
1764 41.782 0.053 0.0477 0.000 42.540 41.023
1764 41.777 0.053 0.0499 0.000 42.535 41.018
1849 41.772 1.511 1.5085 0.000 42.530 41.013
1764 41.767 0.053 0.0543 0.000 42.525 41.009
1681 41.762 0.594 0.5806 0.000 42.520 41.004
1600 41.757 3.136 3.0874 0.000 42.515 40.999
1600 41.752 3.136 3.0702 0.000 42.511 40.994
1681 41.747 0.594 0.5585 0.001 42.506 40.989
1764 41.742 0.053 0.0664 0.001 42.501 40.984
1764 41.738 0.053 0.0689 0.001 42.496 40.979
1764 41.733 0.053 0.0715 0.001 42.491 40.974
1764 41.728 0.053 0.0741 0.002 42.486 40.969
1764 41.723 0.053 0.0768 0.002 42.481 40.964
1764 41.718 0.053 0.0796 0.003 42.476 40.960
1681 41.713 0.594 0.5084 0.003 42.471 40.955
1681 41.708 0.594 0.5014 0.004 42.466 40.950
1764 41.703 0.053 0.0881 0.005 42.462 40.945
1681 41.698 0.594 0.4876 0.005 42.457 40.940
1764 41.693 0.053 0.0940 0.006 42.452 40.935
1764 41.689 0.053 0.0970 0.007 42.447 40.930
1764 41.684 0.053 0.1001 0.008 42.442 40.925
1681 41.679 0.594 0.4606 0.008 42.437 40.920
1600 41.674 3.136 2.8016 0.009 42.432 40.915
1764 41.669 0.053 0.1096 0.010 42.427 40.911
1764 41.664 0.053 0.1129 0.011 42.422 40.906
1764 41.659 0.053 0.1162 0.012 42.417 40.901
1849 41.654 1.511 1.8112 0.014 42.413 40.896
1849 41.649 1.511 1.8244 0.015 42.408 40.891
1764 41.644 0.053 0.1265 0.016 42.403 40.886
1681 41.640 0.594 0.4090 0.017 42.398 40.881
1764 41.635 0.053 0.1335 0.019 42.393 40.876
1681 41.630 0.594 0.3965 0.020 42.388 40.871
1764 41.625 0.053 0.1408 0.021 42.383 40.866
1764 41.620 0.053 0.1445 0.023 42.378 40.862
1764 41.615 0.053 0.1482 0.024 42.373 40.857
1764 41.610 0.053 0.1520 0.026 42.368 40.852
 1600 41.605 3.136 2.5767 0.027 42.364 40.847
1681 41.600 0.594 0.3604 0.029 42.359 40.842
1764 41.595 0.053 0.1637 0.031 42.354 40.837
1764 41.591 0.053 0.1677 0.033 42.349 40.832
1764 41.586 0.053 0.1717 0.034 42.344 40.827
1600 41.581 3.136 2.4986 0.036 42.339 40.822
1764 41.576 0.053 0.1799 0.038 42.334 40.817
1764 41.571 0.053 0.1841 0.040 42.329 40.813
1764 41.566 0.053 0.1884 0.042 42.324 40.808
1681 41.561 0.594 0.3148 0.044 42.319 40.803
1764 41.556 0.053 0.1970 0.046 42.315 40.798
1764 41.551 0.053 0.2013 0.048 42.310 40.793
1764 41.546 0.053 0.2058 0.050 42.305 40.788
1600 41.542 3.136 2.3762 0.053 42.300 40.783
1764 41.537 0.053 0.2147 0.055 42.295 40.778
167558 Σ(Y - Ȳ)2 = 56.958 Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 55.210 Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 1.770 Σ
48 60 72 84 96 108
Yest - sy,x <= Y <= Yest + sy,x 0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
67 69.79%
SECUENCIA DIDACTICA N° 1

Nombre variable de interés (correlación)

Y = a0 + a1 X
a0 = 1.2254
a1 = 0.0112

X Y XY Y2
Año 1 Ene 1 4 4 16
Feb 2 2 4 4
Mar 3 0 0 0
Abr 4 0 0 0
May 5 1 5 1
Jun 6 0 0 0
Jul 7 0 0 0
Ago 8 0 0 0
Sep 9 0 0 0
Oct 10 0 0 0
Nov 11 5 55 25
Dic 12 10 120 100
Año 2 Ene 13 3 39 9
Feb 14 3 42 9
Mar 15 4 60 16
Abr 16 0 0 0
May 17 0 0 0
Jun 18 0 0 0
Jul 19 2 38 4
Ago 20 0 0 0
Sep 21 0 0 0
Oct 22 0 0 0
Nov 23 0 0 0
Dic 24 0 0 0
Año 3 Ene 25 9 225 81
Feb 26 6 156 36
Mar 27 2 54 4
Abr 28 0 0 0
May 29 2 58 4
Jun 30 0 0 0
Jul 31 2 62 4
Ago 32 0 0 0
Sep 33 0 0 0
Oct 34 0 0 0
Nov 35 3 105 9
Dic 36 0 0 0
Año 4 Ene 37 1 37 1
Feb 38 3 114 9
Mar 39 0 0 0
Abr 40 0 0 0
May 41 0 0 0
Jun 42 0 0 0
Jul 43 0 0 0
Ago 44 0 0 0
Sep 45 0 0 0
Oct 46 0 0 0
Nov 47 0 0 0
Dic 48 1 48 1
Año 5 Ene 49 7 343 49
Feb 50 3 150 9
Mar 51 0 0 0
Abr 52 0 0 0
May 53 2 106 4
Jun 54 0 0 0
Jul 55 0 0 0
Ago 56 0 0 0
Sep 57 0 0 0
Oct 58 0 0 0
Nov 59 0 0 0
Dic 60 7 420 49
Año 6 Ene 61 3 183 9
Feb 62 3 186 9
Mar 63 1 63 1
Abr 64 0 0 0
May 65 0 0 0
Jun 66 0 0 0
Jul 67 5 335 25
Ago 68 0 0 0
Sep 69 0 0 0
Oct 70 0 0 0
Nov 71 0 0 0
Dic 72 0 0 0
Año 7 Ene 73 15 1095 225
Feb 74 12 888 144
Mar 75 5 375 25
Abr 76 0 0 0
May 77 3 231 9
Jun 78 0 0 0
Jul 79 5 395 25
Ago 80 0 0 0
Sep 81 0 0 0
 Oct 82 0 0 0
Nov 83 7 581 49
Dic 84 0 0 0
Año 8 Ene 85 17 1445 289
Feb 86 8 688 64
Mar 87 0 0 0
Abr 88 0 0 0
May 89 0 0 0
Jun 90 0 0 0
Jul 91 4 364 16
Ago 92 0 0 0
Sep 93 0 0 0
Oct 94 0 0 0
Nov 95 0 0 0
Dic 96 0 0 0
ΣY = 170 ΣXY = 9074 ΣY2 = 1334
Promedio 1.771

Error estándar sy,x = 3.2654

Variación Total Σ(Y - Ȳ) =
2
1032.885
Variación No Explicada Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 1023.637 20

Variación Explicada Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 9.248

Coeficiente de Determinación r = 2
0.0090
Coeficiente de Correlación r = 0.0946
15

10

f(x) = 0.0112452523060228 x
R² = 0.00902486950428138
0
0 12

-5
 Yest (Y - Ȳ)2 (Y – Yest)2 (Yest - Ȳ)2 Yest + sy,x Yest - sy,x
1.237 4.969 7.6364 0.285 4.502 -2.029
1.248 0.053 0.5658 0.274 4.513 -2.018
1.259 3.136 1.5851 0.262 4.524 -2.006
1.270 3.136 1.6134 0.251 4.536 -1.995
1.281 0.594 0.0792 0.240 4.547 -1.984
1.293 3.136 1.6708 0.229 4.558 -1.973
1.304 3.136 1.6999 0.218 4.569 -1.962
1.315 3.136 1.7292 0.208 4.580 -1.950
1.326 3.136 1.7588 0.198 4.592 -1.939
1.337 3.136 1.7886 0.188 4.603 -1.928
1.349 10.428 13.3327 0.178 4.614 -1.917
1.360 67.719 74.6531 0.169 4.625 -1.906
1.371 1.511 2.6536 0.160 4.636 -1.894
1.382 1.511 2.6173 0.151 4.648 -1.883
1.393 4.969 6.7944 0.142 4.659 -1.872
1.405 3.136 1.9729 0.134 4.670 -1.861
1.416 3.136 2.0045 0.126 4.681 -1.850
1.427 3.136 2.0363 0.118 4.692 -1.838
1.438 0.053 0.3156 0.111 4.704 -1.827
1.449 3.136 2.1008 0.103 4.715 -1.816
1.461 3.136 2.1334 0.096 4.726 -1.805
1.472 3.136 2.1662 0.089 4.737 -1.794
1.483 3.136 2.1993 0.083 4.748 -1.782
1.494 3.136 2.2326 0.077 4.760 -1.771
1.505 52.261 56.1690 0.070 4.771 -1.760
1.517 17.886 20.1009 0.065 4.782 -1.749
1.528 0.053 0.2230 0.059 4.793 -1.738
1.539 3.136 2.3685 0.054 4.804 -1.726
1.550 0.053 0.2023 0.049 4.816 -1.715
1.561 3.136 2.4380 0.044 4.827 -1.704
1.573 0.053 0.1827 0.039 4.838 -1.693
1.584 3.136 2.5084 0.035 4.849 -1.682
1.595 3.136 2.5440 0.031 4.860 -1.670
1.606 3.136 2.5799 0.027 4.872 -1.659
1.617 1.511 1.9116 0.024 4.883 -1.648
1.629 3.136 2.6523 0.020 4.894 -1.637
1.640 0.594 0.4093 0.017 4.905 -1.626
1.651 1.511 1.8198 0.014 4.916 -1.614
1.662 3.136 2.7629 0.012 4.928 -1.603
1.673 3.136 2.8003 0.009 4.939 -1.592
1.685 3.136 2.8379 0.007 4.950 -1.581
1.696 3.136 2.8757 0.006 4.961 -1.570
1.707 3.136 2.9138 0.004 4.972 -1.558
1.718 3.136 2.9522 0.003 4.984 -1.547
1.729 3.136 2.9908 0.002 4.995 -1.536
1.741 3.136 3.0297 0.001 5.006 -1.525
1.752 3.136 3.0688 0.000 5.017 -1.514
1.763 0.594 0.5822 0.000 5.028 -1.502
1.774 27.344 27.3090 0.000 5.040 -1.491
1.785 1.511 1.4753 0.000 5.051 -1.480
1.797 3.136 3.2278 0.001 5.062 -1.469
1.808 3.136 3.2681 0.001 5.073 -1.458
1.819 0.053 0.0328 0.002 5.084 -1.446
1.830 3.136 3.3496 0.004 5.096 -1.435
1.841 3.136 3.3908 0.005 5.107 -1.424
1.853 3.136 3.4321 0.007 5.118 -1.413
1.864 3.136 3.4738 0.009 5.129 -1.402
1.875 3.136 3.5156 0.011 5.140 -1.390
1.886 3.136 3.5578 0.013 5.152 -1.379
1.897 27.344 26.0365 0.016 5.163 -1.368
1.909 1.511 1.1912 0.019 5.174 -1.357
1.920 1.511 1.1668 0.022 5.185 -1.346
1.931 0.594 0.8668 0.026 5.196 -1.334
1.942 3.136 3.7721 0.029 5.208 -1.323
1.953 3.136 3.8158 0.033 5.219 -1.312
1.965 3.136 3.8597 0.038 5.230 -1.301
1.976 10.428 9.1458 0.042 5.241 -1.290
1.987 3.136 3.9482 0.047 5.252 -1.278
1.998 3.136 3.9928 0.052 5.264 -1.267
2.009 3.136 4.0377 0.057 5.275 -1.256
2.021 3.136 4.0828 0.062 5.286 -1.245
2.032 3.136 4.1282 0.068 5.297 -1.234
2.043 175.011 167.8838 0.074 5.308 -1.222
2.054 104.636 98.9189 0.080 5.320 -1.211
2.065 10.428 8.6119 0.087 5.331 -1.200
2.077 3.136 4.3123 0.093 5.342 -1.189
2.088 1.511 0.8321 0.100 5.353 -1.178
2.099 3.136 4.4058 0.108 5.364 -1.166
2.110 10.428 8.3509 0.115 5.376 -1.155
2.121 3.136 4.5003 0.123 5.387 -1.144
2.133 3.136 4.5480 0.131 5.398 -1.133
 2.144 3.136 4.5959 0.139 5.409 -1.122
2.155 27.344 23.4740 0.148 5.420 -1.110
2.166 3.136 4.6924 0.156 5.432 -1.099
2.177 231.928 219.7095 0.165 5.443 -1.088
2.189 38.803 33.7724 0.175 5.454 -1.077
2.200 3.136 4.8391 0.184 5.465 -1.066
2.211 3.136 4.8885 0.194 5.476 -1.054
2.222 3.136 4.9382 0.204 5.488 -1.043
2.233 3.136 4.9881 0.214 5.499 -1.032
2.245 4.969 3.0814 0.224 5.510 -1.021
2.256 3.136 5.0886 0.235 5.521 -1.010
2.267 3.136 5.1393 0.246 5.532 -0.998
2.278 3.136 5.1902 0.257 5.544 -0.987
2.289 3.136 5.2414 0.269 5.555 -0.976
2.301 3.136 5.2928 0.281 5.566 -0.965
Σ(Y - Ȳ)2 = 1032.958 Σ(Y – Yest)2 = 1023.637 Σ(Yest - Ȳ)2 = 9.248 Σ

20

15

10

f(x) = 0.0112452523060228 x + 1.22543859649123

R² = 0.00902486950428138
0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84

-5
Yest - sy,x <= Y <= Yest + sy,x 0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
 1
0
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
85 88.54%

72 84 96 108