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Ui N(0, 2)
β̂ i N( , V( β̂ i ))
i
6) FORMA FUNCIONAL
H0 : i = a
H 1 : i a
β̂ i - a β̂ i β̂ i β̂ i
tc = SD (β̂ i ) = SD (β̂ i ) (PARA a=0) t/2 SE( )
RECHAZAR Ho SI “a” NO CAE
RECHAZAR Ho SI tc > t O p< DENTRO DEL INTERVALO
MATRIZ DE CORRELACION
CONS YD TIME
CONS 1.000000 0.998916 0.988474
YD 0.998916 1.000000 0.983923
TIME 0.988474 0.983923 1.000000
PREDICTOR
VARIABLES COEFFICIENT STD ERROR STUDENT'S T P VIF
--------- ----------- --------- ----------- ------ -----
CONSTANT 52.6821 13.0791 4.03 0.0017
TIME 2.70501 0.85202 3.17 0.0080 31.4
YD 0.72834 0.04894 14.88 0.0000 31.4
SOURCE DF SS MS F P
---------- --- ---------- ---------- ----- ------
REGRESSION 2(K-1) 65959.8 32979.9 5087.05 0.0000
RESIDUAL 12(N-K) 77.7973 6.48311
TOTAL 14(N-1) 66037.6
Dependent Variable: M
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1 44
Included observations: 44
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
lwage | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
exper | .1050292 .010175 10.32 0.000 .085081 .1249775
expersq | -.0035763 .0007198 -4.97 0.000 -.0049874 -.0021651
educ | .1021177 .0046816 21.81 0.000 .0929395 .111296
_cons | -.0563691 .0639355 -0.88 0.378 -.1817152 .0689769
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
H0 : 2 = 3 = 0 (R2=0)
H1 : AL MENOS UN i 0
SCReg/df SCReg/(k 1)
Fc = SCE/df = SCE/(n k) Fk-1,n-K
EJEMPLO 1 ( = 5%):
65959.8 / 2
Fc = 77.7973 / 12 = 5087.05 5087.05 > 3.74 RECHACE Ho
O
F2,12= 3.74 p = 0.0 < 0.05 RECHACE Ho
DE IGUAL MANERA:
R2 n-k 0.9988 12
Fc= (1 R ) k - 1 = (1 0.9988) 2 = 4994 > 3.74 (RECHACE Ho)
2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
infmort | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lowbrt | .7728683 .0895771 8.63 0.000 .5950825 .9506541
pcinc | -.0001375 .0000339 -4.06 0.000 -.0002047 -.0000702
_cons | 6.543615 .8739834 7.49 0.000 4.809 8.27823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOTA:
H0 : 2 = 3 = … = k = 0
H1 : AL MENOS UN i 0
J. Ramoni Perazzi Capítulo 8. 5
Econometría I
PRUEBA t DE SIGNIFICANCIA INDIVIDUAL PRUEBA F DE
SIGNIFICANCIA CONJUNTA.
RECUERDE:
SE PODRIAN INTRODUCIR LAS VARIABLES SECUENCIALMENTE A
FIN DE DETERMINAR SI SU CORRESPONDIENTE CONTRIBUCION
MARGINAL ES SIGNIFICATIVA (VALE LA PENA DEJARLA EN EL
MODELO)
ESTADISTICO:
PREDICTOR
VARIABLES COEFFICIENT STD ERROR STUDENT'S T P
--------- ----------- --------- ----------- ------
CONSTANT 12.7455 4.66729 2.73 0.0172
YD 0.88122 0.01139 77.36 0.0000
SOURCE DF SS MS F P
---------- --- ---------- ---------- ----- ------
REGRESSION 1 65894.5 65894.5 5984.41 0.0000
RESIDUAL 13 143.143 11.0110
TOTAL 14 66037.6
PREDICTOR
VARIABLES COEFFICIENT STD ERROR STUDENT'S T P VIF
--------- ----------- --------- ----------- ------ -----
CONSTANT 52.6821 13.0791 4.03 0.0017
TIME 2.70501 0.85202 3.17 0.0080 31.4
YD 0.72834 0.04894 14.88 0.0000 31.4
(65959.8 65894.5) / 1
Fc= 77.7973 / 12 = 10.0723 (USANDO SCE Y SCR)
O
(0.9988 .9978) / 1
Fc= (1 0.9988) / 12 = 10 (USANDO R2: ASEGURESE DE QUE LA Y ES LA
MISMA EN AMBOS MODELOS)
F1,12= 4.75
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
price | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
displacement | 15.89588 3.288859 4.83 0.000 9.33966 22.4521
_cons | 3029.042 714.8736 4.24 0.000 1603.968 4454.117
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
price | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
displacement | 27.04349 3.598862 7.51 0.000 19.86756 34.21941
foreign | 3624.66 718.2047 5.05 0.000 2192.601 5056.72
_cons | -247.9518 896.1172 -0.28 0.783 -2034.759 1538.855
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
J. Ramoni Perazzi Capítulo 8. 8
Econometría I
(R 2 new - R 2 old)/df
Fc= (1 R new)/df =(0.4443/1)/(0.245/(74-3)) = 128,75
2
F1,71 = 4.00
Yi = 0Li2Ki3eui
lnYi = 1+ 2 ln Li + 3 ln Ki + ui
PARA 1 =ln 0
Ho: 2 + 3 = 1
H1: 2 + 3 1
( βˆ 2 βˆ 3 ) - 1
H1: 2 + 3 1
lnYi = 1 + ln Li + 3 (ln Ki - ln Li )+ ui
lnYi - ln Li = 1 + 3 (ln Ki - ln Li )+ ui
MODEL NO RESTRINGIDO
UNWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES LINEAR REGRESSION OF LY
PREDICTOR
VARIABLES COEFFICIENT STD ERROR STUDENT'S T P VIF
--------- ----------- --------- ----------- ------ -----
CONSTANT -1.44987 1.06381 -1.36 0.1979
LL 1.49877 0.53980 2.78 0.0168 1.9
LK 0.48986 0.10204 4.80 0.0004 1.9
SOURCE DF SS MS F P
---------- --- ---------- ---------- ----- ------
REGRESSION 2 0.10148 0.05074 48.07 0.0000
RESIDUAL 12 0.01267 0.00106
TOTAL 14 0.11415
CASES INCLUDED 15 MISSING CASES 0
MODEL RESTRINGIDO:
UNWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES LINEAR REGRESSION OF LY_L
PREDICTOR
VARIABLES COEFFICIENT STD ERROR STUDENT'S T P
--------- ----------- --------- ----------- ------
CONSTANT 0.74202 0.18062 4.11 0.0012
LK_L 0.61298 0.09330 6.57 0.0000
SOURCE DF SS MS F P
---------- --- ---------- ---------- ----- ------
REGRESSION 1 0.05728 0.05728 43.16 0.0000
RESIDUAL 13 0.01725 0.00133
TOTAL 14 0.07454
CONSTANT LK LL
CONSTANT 1.13169
LK 0.04873 0.01041
LL -0.54746 -0.03843 0.29139
( R 2 NR R 2 R ) / m
F= (1 R NR ) /(n k ) = (0.889-0.8489)/[(1-0.889)/(15-3)]= 4.3
2
i) antilog(LY_L)^=A
iii) (corr(AL,GDP))2=R2
H0: 2 = 3 2 - 3 = 0
H1: 2 3 2 - 3 0
METODO 1: PRUEBA t
(β̂ 2 β̂ 3 ) - (β 2 - β 3 ) β̂ 2 β̂ 3
SE(β̂ 2 β̂ 3 ) V(β̂ 2 ) V ( β̂ 3 ) - 2 COV(β̂ 2 , β̂ 3 ) tn-k
tc = =
t0.05;19 = 2.093
Wald Test:
Equation: Untitled
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
infmort | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lowbrt | .7728683 .0895771 8.63 0.000 .5950825 .9506541
pcinc | -.0001375 .0000339 -4.06 0.000 -.0002047 -.0000702
_cons | 6.543615 .8739834 7.49 0.000 4.809 8.27823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
infmort | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
(1) | .7730058 .0895724 8.63 0.000 .5952294 .9507822
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
a) TEST DE CHOW:
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
1970-1981 1982-1995
2500 6000
5000
2000
4000
INCOME
INCOME
1500
3000
1000
2000
500 1000
0 0
0 100 200 300 150 200 250 300
SAVINGS SAVINGS
4.50 4.5
4.45
4.0
4.40
3.5
4.35
3.0
4.30
4.25 2.5
4.20 2.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
LY LL LK
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
drop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lunch | .0742378 .0062552 11.87 0.000 .0619738 .0865017
enrol | .0000612 .0000108 5.65 0.000 .00004 .0000825
math4 | -.0146364 .0071983 -2.03 0.042 -.0287494 -.0005234
avgsal | .0000801 .0000122 6.55 0.000 .0000561 .000104
math7 | -.0289604 .007249 -4.00 0.000 -.0431727 -.0147482
_cons | 1.083839 .4815303 2.25 0.024 .1397528 2.027925
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
. predict yhat
. gen ldrop=log(drop)
. gen llunch=log(lunch)
. gen lenrol=log(enrol)
. gen lmath4=log(math4)
. gen lavgsal=log(avgsal)
. gen lavgsal=log(avgsal)
. gen lmath7=log(math7)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ldrop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
llunch | .4365816 .0229184 19.05 0.000 .3916461 .4815172
lenrol | .1114197 .0173719 6.41 0.000 .0773591 .1454803
lmath4 | -.102045 .0558219 -1.83 0.068 -.2114936 .0074036
lavgsal | .5117226 .0774087 6.61 0.000 .3599494 .6634958
lmath7 | -.293705 .0471323 -6.23 0.000 -.3861161 -.201294
_cons | -4.858421 .6982347 -6.96 0.000 -6.227431 -3.489411
. predict yhatlog
. gen lyhat=log(yhat)
. gen Z1=lyhat-yhatlog
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
drop | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
lunch | .0747553 .0063616 11.75 0.000 .0622829 .0872278
enrol | .0000604 .0000108 5.58 0.000 .0000392 .0000816
math4 | -.0128954 .0075142 -1.72 0.086 -.0276277 .0018369
avgsal | .0000925 .0000126 7.32 0.000 .0000677 .0001173
math7 | -.0327102 .0076268 -4.29 0.000 -.0476633 -.0177571
Z1 | -3.858535 .6791855 -5.68 0.000 -5.190147 -2.526922
_cons | 1.308242 .4944374 2.65 0.008 .3388464 2.277637
REGRESION CUANTIL
La metodología de regresión cuantil, desarrollada por Koenker y Bassett (1978),
complementa y amplía el análisis clásico de la regresión mínimo cuadrática, en
el sentido de permitir analizar la muestra por subgrupos correspondientes a los
Cuantiles de interés.
Ejemplo:
Estimador
Parámetro
=0,2 =0,4 =0,5 =0,6 =0,8 =0,9
Área 2: Arq. Forestal. Ing. 2,05a 1,47a 1,92 1,55a 3,77 4,21a
Área 3: Arte Econ. Human 1,75a 2,15 2,66 2,48 3,78 3,45