PERIODO VENTAS

2016 420,000.00

2017 500,000.00
2018 600,000.00
2019 450,000.00
2020 520,000.00

INCREMENTOS ABSOLUTOS DE LAS VENTAS HISTORICAS 2016- 2020

PERIODO CANTIDAD INCREMENTO

2016 420,000 -
2017 500,000 80,000
2018 600,000 100,000.00
2019 450,000 150,000.00
2020 520,000 70,000.00
TOTAL 400,000

I.A =Xu-Xo

I.A 500,000 - 420,000 = 80,000 UNI

600,000 - 500,000 = 100,000 UNI
450,000 - 600,000 = - 150,000 UNI
520,000 - 450,000 = 70,000 UNI

2.Pr.I.A. = Total I.A

n-1

Pr.I.A= 400,000 = 400,000 = 100,000 Unds

5-1 4

3. calculo de pronostico de ventas 2021

520,000 + 100,000 620,000

3. calculo de pronostico de ventas 2022

620,000 + 100,000 720,000

3. calculo de pronostico de ventas 2023

720,000 + 100,000 820,000

 PERIODO VENTAS
2016 420,000.00
2017 500,000.00
2018 600,000.00
2019 450,000.00
2020 520,000.00

1. PASO : Calculo de los incrementos porcentuales y de su sumatoria

INCREMENTOS APORCENTUAL DE LAS VENTAS HISTORICAS

2010 - 2014

PERIODO CANT. INCREMENTO

I.%.

2016 420,000.00 0
2017 500,000.00 19.05
2018 600,000.00 20.00
2019 450,000.00 -25.00
2020 520,000.00 15.56
TOTAL 29.60

El incremento porcentual, se obtiene aplicando la siguiente formula:

I.% =    Xu   -   Xo    x 100

Xo

2016 420,000.00 - 0 / 0 =
2017 500,000.00 - 420,000.00 / 420,000.00 =
2018 600,000.00 - 500,000.00 / 500,000.00 =
2019 450,000.00 - 600,000.00 / 600,000.00 =
2020 520,000.00 - 450,000.00 / 450,000.00 =

2. PASO: Cálculo del promedio de los incrementos porcentuales

Para conocer ése promedio, se aplica la siguiete formula:

Pr.I.% = Total I.%

n - 1

Pr.I%= 29.60 29.60 7.40 %

5-1 4
 Pr.I% = 7.40 %

3. PASO: Calculo de pronóstico de ventas

VENTAS 2021 520,000 + 520,000 * 7.40 %

=

VENTAS 2022 558,484 + 558,484 * 7.40 %

=

VENTAS 2023 599,816 + 599,816 * 7.40 %

=
0
19.05
20.00
-25.00
15.56
 38,484
558,484

41,332
599,816

44,391
644,208
 VENTAS HISTORICAS
2010 - 2014

PERIODO VENTAS
2016 420,000.00
2017 500,000.00
2018 600,000.00
2019 450,000.00
2020 520,000.00

1. PASO: Calculo de la tasa promedio de crecimiento

La tasa promedio de crecimiento se calcula mediante la siguiente formula:

tpc. = ((Xu)1/n-1 - 1) x 100

Xo

2020 =
((520.000)1/5-1 - 1 ) x 100
420,000

tpc = 5.484

= ((548.517)1/5-1 - 1 ) x 100
2020
420,000

tpc = 6.902

= ((520.000)1/5-1 - 1 ) x 100
2020
420,000

tpc = 6,902

= ((520.000)1/5-1 - 1 ) x 100
2020
420,000

tpc = 5.484

2. PASO Pronostico de ventas

 VENTAS HISTORICAS
2010 - 2014

PERIODO VENTAS tpc Incremento

2016 420,000 0 Unds. 420,000
2017 500,000 0 Unds. 500,000
2018 600,000 0 Unds. 600,000
2019 450,000 0 Unds. 450,000
5.48
2020 520,000 28,517 Unds. 548,517
2021 548,517 5.48
30,081 Unds. 578,598
5.48
2022 578,598 31,730 Unds. 610,328
5.48
2023 610,328 33,470 Unds. 643,798

INCREMENTO= 520,000 * 5 % =
548,517 * 5 % =
578,598 * 5 % =
610,328 * 5 % =
28,517
30,059
31,730
33,470
 Año X Y XY X
2

2016 1 420,000 420,000 1

2017 2 500,000 1,000,000 4
2018 3 600,000 1,800,000 9
2019 4 450,000 1,800,000 16
2020 5 520,000 2,600,000 25
15 2,490,000 7,620,000 55

y a + bx

b  n Σ xy   -   ΣxΣy 
n Σ x2 - (Σx)2

a      Σy   -   bΣx     
n

1. PASO: Calculos de la variable b

b= 5(7.6200.000)-15(2.490.000)
5(55)-(15)2

b= 38.100.000-37.350.000
275-225

b= 750,000
50

b= 15,000
Todo taller se debe entregar en el respectivo espacio asignado en la Forma de entrega de la actividad
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