Oferta y demanda de educación

superior en la ZMVM
Roberto Rodríguez Gómez
PUEES-UNAM
6 de septiembre 2023
 Temas

• Evolución reciente de la cobertura de

educación superior
• El caso de la ZMVM
• El caso de la UNAM
Cobertura inferior al promedio nacional 2022-23
Tasa Bruta de Cobertura Brecha media Nacional
Entidad Federativa
2000-2001 2022-2023 2000-2001 2022-2023
Nacional 21.5 43.5 0.0 0.0
1. Chiapas 13.0 20.6 -8.5 -22.8
2. Oaxaca 16.0 22.1 -5.5 -21.4
3. Guerrero 19.9 23.7 -1.6 -19.8
4. Michoacán 14.8 30.1 -6.7 -13.3
5. Tlaxcala 18.8 32.0 -2.7 -11.5
6. Quintana Roo 10.5 32.7 -11.0 -10.8
7. Durango 19.0 33.6 -2.5 -9.8
8. Veracruz 18.1 34.3 -3.4 -9.1
9. Baja California Sur 18.2 35.2 -3.3 -8.3
10. México 12.9 36.1 -8.6 -7.4
11. Zacatecas 15.5 36.1 -6.0 -7.4
12. San Luis Potosí 17.8 37.2 -3.7 -6.3
13. Jalisco 20.5 37.8 -1.0 -5.7
14. Guanajuato 13.4 37.9 -8.1 -5.6
15. Campeche 22.7 38.5 1.2 -5.0
16. Colima 25.4 38.7 3.9 -4.7
17. Morelos 20.7 40.1 -0.8 -3.3
18. Chihuahua 21.2 40.2 -0.3 -3.2
19. Hidalgo 15.5 41.1 -6.0 -2.4
20. Nayarit 30.3 41.8 8.8 -1.6
Cobertura inferior al promedio nacional 2022-23
Tasa Bruta de Cobertura Brecha media Nacional
Entidad Federativa
2000-2001 2022-2023 2000-2001 2022-2023
Nacional 21.5 43.5 0.0 0.0
1. Chiapas 13.0 20.6 -8.5 -22.8
2. Oaxaca 16.0 22.1 -5.5 -21.4
3. Guerrero 19.9 23.7 -1.6 -19.8
4. Michoacán 14.8 30.1 -6.7 -13.3
5. Tlaxcala 18.8 32.0 -2.7 -11.5
6. Quintana Roo 10.5 32.7 -11.0 -10.8
7. Durango 19.0 33.6 -2.5 -9.8
8. Veracruz 18.1 34.3 -3.4 -9.1
9. Baja California Sur 18.2 35.2 -3.3 -8.3
10. México 12.9 36.1 -8.6 -7.4
11. Zacatecas 15.5 36.1 -6.0 -7.4
12. San Luis Potosí 17.8 37.2 -3.7 -6.3
13. Jalisco 20.5 37.8 -1.0 -5.7
14. Guanajuato 13.4 37.9 -8.1 -5.6
15. Campeche 22.7 38.5 1.2 -5.0
16. Colima 25.4 38.7 3.9 -4.7
17. Morelos 20.7 40.1 -0.8 -3.3
18. Chihuahua 21.2 40.2 -0.3 -3.2
19. Hidalgo 15.5 41.1 -6.0 -2.4
20. Nayarit 30.3 41.8 8.8 -1.6
 Gasto federal en educación superior 2000-23
$ Corrientes $ Constantes 2020
2000 40,339,100,000 127,139,630,986 Gasto Federal en ES
2001 47,871,800,000 142,265,258,847
2002 53,356,300,000 150,338,838,265
Millones de pesos constantes 2020
2003 58,114,000,000 157,338,526,386
2004 63,116,200,000 158,322,664,352
300,000
2005 71,391,100,000 169,129,729,040
2006 73,268,000,000 163,152,708,855
250,000
2007 85,771,000,000 180,557,679,885
2008 96,679,900,000 191,664,234,365
200,000
2009 108,110,000,000 206,196,803,324
2010 113,789,100,000 207,586,809,959
2011 126,609,800,000 218,288,170,115 150,000
2012 139,507,900,000 231,016,079,857
2013 148,451,200,000 242,129,591,810 100,000
2014 169,184,500,000 264,241,090,548
2015 177,420,300,000 269,473,798,142 50,000
2016 182,179,100,000 262,089,615,418
2017 176,813,400,000 238,294,239,583 0

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2018 184,850,000,000 237,387,021,604
2019 189,673,800,000 233,918,383,924
2020 196,687,700,000 233,024,269,676
2021 155,663,000,000 175,256,982,814
2022 159,845,100,000 168,157,045,200
2023 162,744,000,000 162,744,000,000
Fuente: Quinto informe de gobierno
Cobertura superior al promedio nacional 2022-23
Tasa Bruta de Cobertura Brecha media Nacional
Entidad Federativa
2000-2001 2022-2023 2000-2001 2022-2023
Nacional 21.5 43.5 0.0 0.0
Tamaulipas 37.0 44.1 15.5 0.7
Yucatán 20.1 44.2 -1.4 0.7
Baja California 18.8 44.2 -2.7 0.8
Tabasco 22.2 44.5 0.7 1.0
Sonora 28.1 44.9 6.6 1.4
Coahuila 26.9 45.4 5.4 1.9
Aguascalientes 22.4 46.1 0.9 2.6
Querétaro 19.2 46.4 -2.3 3.0
Puebla 21.3 52.7 -0.2 9.3
Sinaloa 29.7 55.8 8.2 12.3
Nuevo León 29.9 55.9 8.4 12.5
Ciudad de México 44.8 120.8 23.3 77.4
Cobertura superior al promedio nacional 2022-23
Tasa Bruta de Cobertura Brecha media Nacional
Entidad Federativa
2000-2001 2022-2023 2000-2001 2022-2023
Nacional 21.5 43.5 0.0 0.0
Tamaulipas 37.0 44.1 15.5 0.7
Yucatán 20.1 44.2 -1.4 0.7
Baja California 18.8 44.2 -2.7 0.8
Tabasco 22.2 44.5 0.7 1.0
Sonora 28.1 44.9 6.6 1.4
Coahuila 26.9 45.4 5.4 1.9
Aguascalientes 22.4 46.1 0.9 2.6
Querétaro 19.2 46.4 -2.3 3.0
Puebla 21.3 52.7 -0.2 9.3
Sinaloa 29.7 55.8 8.2 12.3
Nuevo León 29.9 55.9 8.4 12.5
Ciudad de México 44.8 120.8 23.3 77.4
CDMX ZMVM
 Datos CDMX

Población Matrícula
Ciudad de México
Total 18-22 años Total Privada Pública Esc. No Esc.
Álvaro Obregón 759,137 59,056 32,345 28,896 3,449 29,870 2,475
Azcapotzalco 432,205 30,683 49,194 22,369 26,825 36,944 12,250
Benito Juárez 434,153 22,606 22,448 20,826 1,622 14,967 7,481
Coyoacán 614,447 45,215 197,413 47,004 150,409 131,927 65,486
Cuajimalpa de Morelos 217,686 17,881 4,309 1,102 3,207 3,973 336
Cuauhtémoc 545,884 35,809 179,447 75,220 104,227 48,263 131,184
Gustavo A. Madero 1,173,351 90,296 80,801 12,748 68,053 68,375 12,426
Iztacalco 404,695 30,051 17,279 2,809 14,470 16,185 1,094
Iztapalapa 1,835,486 150,009 58,306 19,674 38,632 52,845 5,461
Magdalena Contreras 247,622 20,033 2,355 71 2,284 453 1,902
Miguel Hidalgo 414,470 25,365 45,296 8,339 36,957 40,700 4,596
Milpa Alta 152,685 13,496 4,312 0 4,312 4,312 0
Tláhuac 392,313 33,479 5,340 533 4,807 5,214 126
Tlalpan 699,928 57,196 29,927 15,793 14,134 23,905 6,022
Venustiano Carranza 443,704 32,106 277 277 0 277 0
Xochimilco 442,178 36,603 8,942 96 8,846 7,478 1,464
Suma 9,209,944 699,884 737,991 255,757 482,234 485,688 252,303
 Datos Municipios Edo de México

Población Matrícula
Municipios Edo México
Total 18-22 años Total Privada Pública Esc. No Esc.
Ecatepec de Morelos 1,645,352 136,779 38,792 23,093 15,699 35,210 3,582
Nezahualcóyotl 1,077,208 87,233 40,475 10,292 30,183 36,140 4,335
Naucalpan de Juárez 834,434 69,175 40,837 12,080 28,757 35,774 5,063
Chimalhuacán 705,193 64,264 9,932 1,398 8,534 8,804 1,128
Tlalnepantla de Baz 672,202 51,962 35,774 12,895 22,879 25,271 10,503
Cuautitlán Izcalli 555,163 43,665 40,034 13,948 26,086 34,178 5,856
Tecámac 547,503 46,040 13,284 4,524 8,760 11,190 2,094
Ixtapaluca 542,211 50,227 9,210 5,659 3,551 8,083 1,127
Atizapán de Zaragoza 523,674 40,796 19,596 14,640 4,956 17,656 1,940
Tultitlán 516,341 43,364 5,865 0 5,865 5,865 0
Nicolás Romero 430,601 37,931 6,260 478 5,782 6,260 0
Chalco 400,057 34,868 6,374 3,698 2,676 5,669 705
Chalco Solidaridad 391,731 33,010 3,590 753 2,837 1,930 1,660
La Paz 304,088 27,123 6,319 2,534 3,785 5,430 889
Subtotal 9,145,758 766,437 276,342 105,992 170,350 237,460 38,882
Resto (45 municipios) 3,280,511 286,099 73,193 40,587 32,606 58,098 15,095
Suma 12,426,269 1,052,536 349,535 146,579 202,956 295,558 53,977
 Datos ZMVM

Población Matrícula
ZMVM
Total 18-22 años Total Privada Pública Esc. No Esc.

CDMX (16 alcaldías) 9,209,944 699,884 737,991 255,757 482,234 485,688 252,303
México (59 municipios) 12,426,269 1,052,536 349,535 146,579 202,956 295,558 53,977
Hidalgo (1 municipio) 168,302 14,020 1,987 633 1,354 1,811 176

Suma 21,804,515 1,766,440 1,089,513 402,969 686,544 783,057 306,456

% Cobertura % Matrícula privada % Matrícula no escolarizada

CDMX 105.44 34.66 34.19

EDOMEX 33.69 40.09 15.63
HIDALGO 14.17 31.86 8.86

ZMVM 45.95 37.94 22.94

 Concurso UNAM Licenciaturas 2021-2022
Bachillerato de procedencia

Aspirantes % Asignados % Probabilidad

Ciudad de México 63,365 39.0 10,188 41.0 16.1

Estado de México 71,882 44.2 9,531 38.4 13.3
Otro estado 27,175 16.7 5,074 20.4 18.7
Extranjero 154 0.1 29 0.1 18.8
Total 162,576 100.0 24,822 100.0 15.3

Aspirantes % Asignados % Probabilidad

Público 128,754 79.2 19,087 76.9 14.8

Privado 28,040 17.2 4,570 18.4 16.3
Ambos 5,782 3.6 1,165 4.7 20.1
Total 162,576 100.0 24,822 100.0 15.3
UNAM. Solicitudes y admisión a licenciaturas
Demanda Admisión %
1999-00 104,380 12,558 12.0
2000-01 64,428 14,277 22.2
2001-02 88,586 14,875 16.8
2002-03 119,288 14,960 12.5
2003-04 134,884 15,550 11.5
2004-05 143,428 15,325 10.7
2005-06 151,020 15,420 10.2
2006-07 148,028 15,380 10.4
2007-08 161,457 15,470 9.6
2008-09 174,151 15,301 8.8
2009-10 175,350 16,829 9.6
2010-11 170,558 16,170 9.5
2011-12 200,280 18,606 9.3
2012-13 201,359 17,721 8.8
2013-14 219,216 22,906 10.4
2014-15 217,563 23,335 10.7
2015-16 222,944 22,804 10.2
2016-17 235,100 21,548 9.2
2017-18 250,692 23,324 9.3
2018-19 261,157 24,007 9.2
2019-20 290,759 26,527 9.1
2020-21 266,383 24,635 9.2
2021-22 215,757 24,954 11.6
2022-23 225,983 25,291 11.2
UNAM. Solicitudes y admisión a licenciaturas
Demanda No admisión %
1999-00 104,380 91,822 88.0
2000-01 64,428 50,151 77.8
2001-02 88,586 73,711 83.2
2002-03 119,288 104,328 87.5
2003-04 134,884 119,334 88.5
2004-05 143,428 128,103 89.3
2005-06 151,020 135,600 89.8
2006-07 148,028 132,648 89.6
2007-08 161,457 145,987 90.4
2008-09 174,151 158,850 91.2
2009-10 175,350 158,521 90.4
2010-11 170,558 154,388 90.5
2011-12 200,280 181,674 90.7
2012-13 201,359 183,638 91.2
2013-14 219,216 196,310 89.6
2014-15 217,563 194,228 89.3
2015-16 222,944 200,140 89.8
2016-17 235,100 213,552 90.8
2017-18 250,692 227,368 90.7
2018-19 261,157 237,150 90.8
2019-20 290,759 264,232 90.9
2020-21 266,383 241,748 90.8
2021-22 215,757 190,803 88.4
2022-23 225,983 200,692 88.8
 UNAM. Tendencia de admisión
Admisión No admisión
30,000 300,000

25,000 250,000

20,000 200,000

15,000 150,000

10,000 100,000

5,000 50,000

0 0

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
300,000

250,000
Admisión
200,000
No admisión
150,000

100,000

50,000

0
99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
UNAM. Tendencia de admisión por origen escolar
Aspirantes Asignados
Bachillerato de origen
% % Probabilidad
Ciudad de México 63,365 39.0 10,188 41.0 16.1
Estado de México 71,882 44.2 9,531 38.4 13.3
Otro estado 27,175 16.7 5,074 20.4 18.7
Extranjero 154 0.1 29 0.1 18.8
Total 162,576 100.0 24,822 100.0 15.3

Aspirantes Asignados
Tipo de bachillerato % % Probabilidad
Público 128,754 79.2 19,087 76.9 14.8
Privado 28,040 17.2 4,570 18.4 16.3
Ambos 5,782 3.6 1,165 4.7 20.1
Total 162,576 100.0 24,822 100.0 15.3

Fuente: UNAM, Perfil de aspirantes y asignados a bachillerato y licenciatura de la UNAM 2020-21

 UNAM. Admisión por pase o concurso
Ingreso Por pase Por concurso
1999 35,953 23,395 65.1 12,558 34.9
2000 32,862 18,585 56.6 14,277 43.4
2001 35,415 20,540 58.0 14,875 42.0
2002 35,916 20,956 58.3 14,960 41.7
2003 34,773 19,223 55.3 15,550 44.7
2004 35,945 20,620 57.4 15,325 42.6
2005 36,891 21,471 58.2 15,420 41.8
2006 38,219 22,839 59.8 15,380 40.2
2007 38,666 23,196 60.0 15,470 40.0
2008 38,782 23,481 60.5 15,301 39.5
2009 41,428 24,599 59.4 16,829 40.6
2010 40,749 24,579 60.3 16,170 39.7
2011 44,558 25,952 58.2 18,606 41.8
2012 43,131 25,410 58.9 17,721 41.1
2013 48,939 26,033 53.2 22,906 46.8
2014 49,996 26,661 53.3 23,335 46.7
2015 50,450 27,646 54.8 22,804 45.2
2016 49,258 27,710 56.3 21,548 43.7
2017 51,355 28,031 54.6 23,324 45.4
2018 52,731 28,724 54.5 24,007 45.5
2019 55,541 29,014 52.2 26,527 47.8
2020 58,573 33,938 57.9 24,635 42.1
2021 57,818 32,864 56.8 24,954 43.2
2022 55,341 30,050 54.3 25,291 45.7