Cuadro 1: REGISTRO HISTÓRICO

ESTACIÓN CO CAHICADAN

Estación : CACHICADAN Longitud: 78°08'57.78" Dpto. LA LIBERTAD

Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm) Latitud: 08°05'30.64" Prov. SANTIAGO DE CHUCO

Altitud: 2900 msnm Dist. CACHICADAN

AÑO ENE. FEB. MAR. ABR. MAY. JUN. JUL. AGO. SET. OCT. NOV. DIC. MÁXIMO

2000 26.5 27.8 27.9 12.4 9.2 6.5 0.0 10.0 10.6 25.8 12.0 25.3 27.9

2001 30.0 26.4 24.8 18.7 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.2 22.7 10.0 21.8 30.0

2002 8.0 18.2 30.9 17.4 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.7 35.5 22.5 35.5

2003 22.5 27.7 14.6 24.5 22.4 5.0 2.8 0.0 7.6 8.2 4.6 18.7 27.7

2004 7.5 17.7 16.4 18.6 13.8 4.2 4.2 0.0 18.4 0.0 21.7 17.5 21.7

2005 19.5 22.0 25.9 22.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 10.2 10.4 25.9

2006 35.1 26.1 34.6 36.4 12.0 15.0 1.0 0.5 6.2 12.4 19.8 20.9 36.4

2007 28.2 19.0 27.7 33.9 16.8 2.2 5.2 8.7 16.8 17.2 14.5 38.1 38.1

2008 14.0 16.4 18.3 23.4 4.8 5.3 1.2 10.0 1.9 26.4 8.3 15.2 26.4

2009 25.6 28.0 17.0 18.0 22.0 4.7 4.8 2.0 4.5 20.8 22.6 20.8 28.0

2010 31.6 37.6 16.3 16.8 20.6 1.2 3.2 0.0 9.8 11.4 12.6 9.4 37.6

2011 21.0 16.4 32.4 37.8 1.8 6.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 13.5 13.6 42.8 42.8

2012 22.4 34.8 36.6 24.2 12.4 1.2 0.0 1.2 12.2 16.5 18.7 23.9 36.6

2013 20.6 17.5 34.2 20.0 2.8 13.0 0.0 10.2 1.8 24.9 2.8 21.7 34.2

2014 18.4 45.8 31.1 24.2 24.6 1.6 3.6 0.0 13.0 12.0 15.9 18.6 45.8

2015 18.4 16.6 29.6 22.0 17.3 1.2 2.6 1.5 8.2 22.2 14.6 23.4 29.6

2016 15.0 23.4 26.2 25.9 4.0 8.4 0.5 8.0 12.2 28.5 4.2 26.8 28.5

2017 20.2 25.6 31.8 22.0 15.6 2.0 0.1 7.2 25.6 25.8 7.8 35.4 35.4

2018 60.0 24.6 34.6 33.8 22.4 0.0 0.0 4.5 13.8 24.2 17.4 30.8 60.0

2019 28.4 27.2 35.6 37.6 21.0 1.0 20.0 11.4 17.6 22.2 30.0 15.9 37.6

PROMEDIO 70.0 23.6 24.9 27.3 24.5 13.7 3.9 2.5 3.8 10.5 18.6 14.8 23.0 34.3

DESV. EST. 11.2 7.8 7.2 7.5 7.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 6.8 7.3 8.4 8.6 8.6

MÁXIMO 60.0 45.8 36.6 37.8 24.6 15.0 20.0 11.4 25.6 28.5 35.5 42.8 60.0

60.0
 70.0

MÍNIMO 7.5 16.4 14.6 12.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 9.4 21.7
60.0
Nº Datos 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20

FUENTE: SENAMHI.

Histograma Histórico
ESTACIÓN CO CAHICADAN
50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
 DISTRIBUCION DE FRECUENCIA - PROBABILIDAD DE EXCEDENCIA

Año m PP (mm) P (x)

2000 1 21.70 4.76%
2001 2 25.90 9.52% DISTRIBUCION DE FRECUENCIA - PROBABILIDAD DE EXCEDENCIA
2002 3 26.40 14.29% 100.00%
2003 4 27.70 19.05% 95.24%
90.00% 90.48%
2004 5 27.90 23.81%
85.71%
2005 6 28.00 28.57% 80.00% 80.95%
2006 7 28.50 33.33% 76.19%
71.43%
2007 8 29.60 38.10% 70.00%
66.67%
2008 9 30.00 42.86% 61.91%
60.00%
2009 10 34.20 47.62% 57.14%
52.38%
2010 11 35.40 52.38% 50.00%
47.62%
2011 12 35.50 57.14% 42.86%
40.00%
38.10%
2012 13 36.40 61.91%
33.33%
2013 14 36.60 66.67% 30.00% 28.57%
2014 15 37.60 71.43% 23.81%
20.00% 19.05%
2015 16 37.60 76.19%
14.29%
2016 17 38.10 80.95% 10.00% 9.52%
2017 18 42.80 85.71%
0.00%
2018 19 45.80 90.48% 24.00 29.00 34.00 39.00 44.00 49.00 54.00 59.00 64.00 69.00
2019 20 60.00 95.24%
 DISTRIBUCIONES TEÓRICAS (SOFTWARE HIDROESTA)

DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION

DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION LOG
LOGNORMAL 2 LOGNORMAL 3 GAMMA 2 GAMMA 3
PP (mm) NORMAL LOGPEARSON TIPO III GUMBEL GUMBEL
PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS
F (z) F (z) F (z) F (z) F (z) F (z) F (z) F (z)
21.70 0.0614 0.0315 0.0213 0.1231 0.0476 0.0144 0.0238 0.0040

25.90 0.1520 0.1367 0.1274 0.2451 0.0952 0.1311 0.1373 0.1158

26.40 0.1668 0.1556 0.1476 0.2619 0.1429 0.1541 0.1586 0.1426

27.70 0.2097 0.2104 0.2066 0.3069 0.1905 0.2201 0.2201 0.2210

27.90 0.2169 0.2195 0.2164 0.3140 0.2381 0.2309 0.2302 0.2339

28.00 0.2205 0.2241 0.2214 0.3176 0.2857 0.2363 0.2353 0.2403

28.50 0.2391 0.2476 0.2467 0.3355 0.3333 0.2640 0.2613 0.2731

29.60 0.2829 0.3020 0.3052 0.3754 0.3810 0.3266 0.3208 0.3458

30.00 0.2997 0.3225 0.3271 0.3901 0.4286 0.3496 0.3428 0.3720

34.20 0.4958 0.5418 0.5555 0.5414 0.4762 0.5762 0.5663 0.6104

35.40 0.5544 0.6002 0.6143 0.5822 0.5238 0.6311 0.6221 0.6629

35.50 0.5592 0.6049 0.6190 0.5856 0.5714 0.6355 0.6265 0.6670

36.40 0.6023 0.6458 0.6596 0.6149 0.6190 0.6728 0.6648 0.7014

36.60 0.6117 0.6546 0.6683 0.6213 0.6667 0.6807 0.6729 0.7086

37.60 0.6578 0.6964 0.7092 0.6524 0.7143 0.7178 0.7112 0.7419

37.60 0.6578 0.6964 0.7092 0.6524 0.7619 0.7178 0.7112 0.7419

38.10 0.6800 0.7160 0.7283 0.6673 0.8095 0.7350 0.7290 0.7570

42.80 0.8517 0.8584 0.8639 0.7882 0.8571 0.8564 0.8558 0.8605

45.80 0.9210 0.9140 0.9159 0.8464 0.9048 0.9040 0.9057 0.9004

60.00 0.9992 0.9943 0.9931 0.9748 0.9524 0.9855 0.9884 0.9753

Δ OBTENIDOS PARA UN NIVEL DE SIGNIFICANCIA DEL 5%

DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION

DISTRIBUCION LOGNORMAL 2 LOGNORMAL 3 GAMMA 2 GAMMA 3 DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION DISTRIBUCION
NORMAL PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS PARÁMETROS LOGPEARSON TIPO III GUMBEL LOGGUMBEL

Δ TEORICO 0.1381 0.1053 0.1015 0.1162 NSA 0.1087 0.0978 0.1424

0.3041 0.3041 0.3041 0.3041 0.3041 0.3041 0.3041 0.3041

Δ TABULAR
 SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA NO SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA SE AJUSTA
VERIFICAR

0.0978
Δ DE MEJOR AJUSTE

DISTRIBUCIONES TEORICAS - NIVEL DE SIGNIFICANCIA DEL 5%

PP (mm) DIST. NORMAL DIST. LOG NORMAL 2P DIST. LOG NORMAL 3P DIST. GAMMA 2P DIST. GAMMA 3P DIST. LOG PERSON T3 DIST. GUMBEL DIST. LOG GUMBEL

100.00%

90.00%

80.00%

70.00%

60.00%
PROBABILIDAD (%)

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%
24.00 29.00 34.00 39.00 44.00 49.00 54.00 59.00

PRECIPITACIÓN (mm)
 Precipitación máxima para diferentes periodos de retorno
(Software HIDROESTA)
Distribución
T (años) P
Gumbel Xᵗ
2 0.500 32.87
5 0.200 40.47
10 0.100 45.50
20 0.050 50.32
30 0.033 53.10
50 0.020 56.57
80 0.013 59.74
100 0.010 61.25
140 0.007 63.51
200 0.005 65.91
500 0.002 72.06
Δ 0.3041 0.0978

Relacion entre Precipitación máxima verdadera y

precipitación en intervalos fijos
Número de Intervalo de Observacion Relación

1 1.13
2 1.04
3-4 1.03
5-8 1.02
9-24 1.01

Fuente: Hidrología para ingenieros (Linsley, Kohler y Paulhus)

Precipitación máxima para diferentes periodos de retorno

Distribución
T (años) P
Gumbel Xᵗ
2 0.500 37.14
5 0.200 45.73
10 0.100 51.42
20 0.050 56.86
30 0.033 60.00
50 0.020 63.92
80 0.013 67.51
100 0.010 69.21
140 0.007 71.77
200 0.005 74.48
500 0.002 81.43
Δ 0.3041 0.0978
 Duración (Minutos)
T
PT24h 20.00 30.00 60.00
2 37.14 12.75 14.11 16.78
5 45.73 15.70 17.37 20.66
10 51.42 17.65 19.53 23.23
20 56.86 19.52 21.60 25.69
30 60.00 20.60 22.80 27.11
50 63.92 21.94 24.29 28.88
80 67.51 23.17 25.65 30.50
100 69.21 23.76 26.30 31.27
140 71.77 24.64 27.27 32.42
200 74.48 25.57 28.30 33.65
500 81.43 27.95 30.94 36.79

Duración (Minutos)
T
PT24h 20.00 30.00 60.00
2 37.14 38.25 28.22 16.78
5 45.73 47.10 34.75 20.66
10 51.42 52.95 39.07 23.23
20 56.86 58.56 43.21 25.69
30 60.00 61.80 45.59 27.11
50 63.92 65.83 48.57 28.88
80 67.51 69.52 51.29 30.50
100 69.21 71.28 52.59 31.27
140 71.77 73.91 54.53 32.42
200 74.48 76.70 56.59 33.65
500 81.43 83.86 61.87 36.79

Ecuación : Imáx = 577.6481*T^(0.2962) *D^(-0.750

Valores de Imax, para diferentes D en min y para T = 5, 10, 20 y 50 años

Duración D T = 5 años T = 10 años T = 20 años T = 50 años

10 165.46 203.17 249.47 327.26
20 98.38 120.81 148.34 194.59
30 72.59 89.13 109.44 143.57
40 58.5 71.83 88.2 115.7
50 49.48 60.76 74.61 97.87
60 43.16 53 65.07 85.36
70 38.45 47.21 57.97 76.04
80 34.78 42.71 52.45 68.8
90 31.84 39.1 48.01 62.98
100 29.42 36.13 44.36 58.2
110 27.39 33.64 41.3 54.18
120 25.66 31.51 38.69 50.76

Curvas I-D-T
350

300

250

200
intensidad

150

100

50

0
0 20 40 60 80

minutos

T = 5 años T = 10 años T = 20 años T=

n (Minutos)
120.00 180.00 240.00
19.96 22.09 23.73
24.57 27.19 29.22
27.62 30.57 32.85
30.55 33.81 36.33
32.24 35.68 38.34
34.35 38.01 40.84
36.27 40.14 43.13
37.19 41.15 44.22
38.56 42.67 45.85
40.02 44.29 47.59
43.75 48.42 52.03

n (Minutos)
120.00 180.00 240.00
9.98 7.36 5.93
12.29 9.06 7.30
13.81 10.19 8.21
15.28 11.27 9.08
16.12 11.89 9.58
17.17 12.67 10.21
18.14 13.38 10.78
18.59 13.72 11.06
19.28 14.22 11.46
20.01 14.76 11.90
21.87 16.14 13.01

^(0.2962) *D^(-0.7500)
Curvas I-D-T

60 80 100 120 140

minutos

T = 10 años T = 20 años T = 50 años