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s QMRA - tool
s wift Quantitative Micro biological Ris k As s e s s me nt tool
Ente r da ta fo r yo ur a sse ssme nt in
QUICKS TART: the blue da ta fie lds
ca se de finitio n
What is the pathogen of interes t? s almonella
What is the foodproduct of interes t? hamburger
What is the popula tion s ize ? 16 million people
What are the population characteris tics ? total Dutc h population
What is the cons umption period? one year
co nsumptio n da ta
1. Ho w ma ny po rtio ns (N) a re co nsume d in the 1,0E+08
po pula tio n pe r co nsumptio n pe rio d?
2. Wha t is the a ve ra g e size o f o ne po rtio n? (M) 100
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
EVALUACION CUANTITATIVA DEL RIESGO
RETAIL
pre va le nce da ta
3. Wha t pe rce nta g e (S r/+) o f the po rtio ns is 30%
c o nta mina te d a t re ta il? (no n de te cts include d)
po rtio n ca te g o ry po rtio ns
c ontamina tion at retail percent number
+ 30% 3,0E+07
- 70% 7,0E+07
po rtio n ca te g o ry po rtio ns
c ontamina tion at retail percent number c fu/portion total c fu
+ 30% 3,0E+07 30,0 9,0E+08
- 70% 7,0E+07 0 0
9,0E+08
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
EVALUACION CUANTITATIVA DEL RIESGO
KITCHEN: CROS S CONTAMINATION
cro ss-
po rtio n ca te g o ry po rtio ns
co nta mina tio n
contamination at retail cros s -contamination percent number cfu/portion cfu/portion
+ 27% 2,7E+07 24,0 6,0
+
- 3,00% 3,0E+06 30,0 0
- 70% 7,0E+07 0 0
contamination at retail cros s -contamination percent number cfu/portion cfu inges t /portion cfu los t /portion
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
EVALUACION CUANTITATIVA DEL RIESGO
KITCHEN: PREPARATION
he a ting (subdivisio n)
8. Wha t pe rce nta g e o f the po rtio ns is pre pa re d do ne , ha lf-do ne
o r ra w (S pry/cc)?
done 75%
half-done 23%
raw 2,00%
100%
cro ss-
po rtio n ca te g o ry po rtio ns to ta l ing e stio n
co nta mina tio n
contamination at retail cros s -contamination heating percent number cfu/portion cfu inges t /portion cfu /portion cfu
done 20% 2,0E+07 0 0,6 0,6 1,2E+07
+ half-done 6,21% 6,2E+06 0,2 0,6 0,8 5,2E+06
+ raw 0,54% 5,4E+05 24,0 0,6 24,6 1,3E+07
done 2,25% 2,3E+06 0 0 0 0
- half-done 0,69% 6,9E+05 0,3 0 0,3 2,1E+05
raw 0,06% 6,0E+04 30,0 0 30,0 1,8E+06
- 70% 7,0E+07 0 0 0 0
3,3E+07
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
EVALUACION CUANTITATIVA DEL RIESGO
to ta l
po rtio n ca te g o ry risk pe r po rtio n po rtio ns po pula tio n risk
ing e stio n
number of
probability of probability of number of
c ontamination at retail cros s -contamination heating cfu /portion number illnes s
infe ction illnes s infections
cas es
done 0,6 0,21% 0,02% 2,0E+07 4,2E+04 4,2E+03
+ half-done 0,8 0,29% 0,03% 6,2E+06 1,8E+04 1,8E+03
+ raw 24,6 8,17% 0,82% 5,4E+05 4,4E+04 4,4E+03
done 0 0% 0% 2,3E+06 0 0
- half-done 0,3 0,10% 0,01% 6,9E+05 7,2E+02 71,7
raw 30,0 9,87% 0,99% 6,0E+04 5,9E+03 5,9E+02
- 0 0% 0% 7,0E+07 0 0
1,0E+08 1,1E+05 1,1E+04
100.000.000 110.890 11.089
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
EVALUACION CUANTITATIVA DEL RIESGO
% of cases
60%
cons umption period: one yea r
numb para- cc 40%
ques tion va lue 20%
er mete r done
1 N portions cons umed 1,0E+08 h-done 0%
2 M portion s ize in grams 100 cc done h-done raw
raw
3 S r/+ prevalence in retail 30% transmission route
4 Cr/+ cfu per gram contaminated product 0,3
5 S cc /r portions caus ing cros s . cont. 90% attribution of
trans mis s ion route expos ure trans mis s ion route calculation
6 Fcc cfu's from portions to environment 20% cas es
7 Fei cfu's from environment to inges tion 10% # cros s contamination 50% cros s conta mination S cc/r = 0% cc 40%
8 S prd/c c portions prepared done 75% 0 prepared done 0% prepared done Fprd = 0% done 0%
8 S prh/c c portions prepared half-done 23% # prepared half-done 5,20% prepared ha lf-done Fprh = 0% h-done 5,29%
8 S prr/cc portions prepared raw 2,0% prepared raw 45% prepared raw Fprr = 0% raw 44%
9 Fprd cfu's s urviving when prep. done 0%
9 Fprh cfu's s urv. when prep. half-done 1,0% c ompa re d w ith QMRA c ampylob ac te r in
9 Fprr cfu's s urviving when prep. raw 100% RELATIVE RISK c hic ke n fille t
10 ID50 ID50 (number of cfu's ) 2,0E+02 model referenc e relative
point of compa ris on
11 P ill/inf % people infected who ge t ill 10% output data value
portions cons umed 1,0E+08 8,5E+07 118%
time s tamp: 19/04/2014 09:29 contaminated portions (at retail) cons umed 3,0E+07 3,3E+07 91%
total number of cfu's before kitchen 9,0E+08 7,0E+10 1,29%
total number of cfu's after kitchen 3,3E+07 6,1E+06 535%
s QMRA-to ol number of people ill 1,1E+04 1,2E+04 90%
A swift Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (sQMRA) too l Food Control 2010, 21, 319-330
EVALUACION DEL RIESGO
AMBITO DE GOBIERNO