NCR

CRECIMIENTO unidades

Detalle 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

crecimiento 2.00% 2.00% 2.20% 2.30%

Factor de crecimiento 1.000 1.020 1.020 1.022 1.023
Factor de crecimiento ac. 1.00 1.02000 1.04040 1.06329 1.08774

NCR
INFLACION

Detalle 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

inflacion 8.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.50%

indice de inflacion 1.0000 1.0800 1.0500 1.0400 1.0350
indice acumulado de inflacio 1.00 1.0800 1.1340 1.1794 1.2206

Acumulado Inflacion & Cr 1.0000 1.1016 1.1798 1.2540 1.3277

 2027 2028

2.30% 2.00%
1.023 1.020
1.11276 1.13502

2027 2028

3.50% 3.50%
1.0350 1.0350
1.2634 1.3076

1.4058 1.4841
 #REF!
TASA PROMEDIO DE DEPRECIACIÓN

Tasa
% depreciación
depreciación % de Promedio
2022 DIAN participación annual
Terrenos 2,565,200 0.00% 15.19% 0.00%
Edificios 5,441,619 2.22% 32.23% 0.72%
Maquinas 6,121,500 10.00% 36.26% 3.63%
Vehículos 1,224,300 10.00% 7.25% 0.73%
Equipo de compu 1,530,375 20.00% 9.06% 1.81%
-
Total Activo Fijo 16,882,994 100.00% 6.88%
0.022222
 NCR
ACTIVO FIJO Y DEPRECIACION
PROYECTADO

% Sobre
ventas
Detalle 2022 2022 2023 2024
Terrenos 11.66% 2,565,200 2,825,824 3,026,458
Edificios 24.73% 5,441,619 5,994,487 6,420,096
Maquinas 27.83% 6,121,500 6,743,444 7,222,229
Vehiculos 5.56% 1,224,300 1,348,689 1,444,446
Equipo de computo 6.96% 1,530,375 1,685,861 1,805,557

Activo fijo bruto 76.74% 16,882,994 18,598,306 19,918,786

compras de act. Fijo 1,715,312 1,320,480
DEPRECIACION
Depreciacion del periodo 6.88% 1,161,580 1,279,596
Depreciacion acumulada 5,486,435 6,648,015 7,927,611
Activo fijo neto 11,396,559 11,950,291 11,991,175
 2025 2026 2027 2028
3,216,762 3,405,923 3,606,208 3,807,074 ESF
6,823,792 7,225,065 7,649,935 8,076,036 ESF
7,676,363 8,127,771 8,605,725 9,085,064 ESF
1,535,273 1,625,554 1,721,145 1,817,013 ESF
1,919,091 2,031,943 2,151,431 2,271,266 ESF

21,171,279 22,416,256 23,734,444 25,056,453 ESF

1,252,493 1,244,977 1,318,188 1,322,009 FCL

1,370,448 1,456,621 1,542,278 1,632,972 PYG Y FCL

9,298,059 10,754,680 12,296,959 13,929,930 ESF
11,873,220 11,661,576 11,437,486 11,126,522 ESF
 NCR
Costo de capital
PROYECTADO
Estructura de
Fuente Monto KaT Tx KdT cppc
capital
Pasivo Fcro 5,999,600 40.45% 12.00% 30% 8.40% 3.40%
Patrimonio 8,832,559 59.55% 18.16% 0% 18.16% 10.81%
Total 14,832,159 100.00% 14.21%
 NCR
CPPC_WACC

Año Real 2023

Inflacion interna (Meta Banrepublica 2023 8.00%

Inflación externa (Meta FED 2023 3.80%
Tasa Impositiva NCR 30.00%

Datos del CAPM CAPM

Fuente Real
Tasa libre de Riesgo, Fuente: Promedio
Geométrico Damodaran “T.Bonds” años
1928-2022 (Kf) Kf 4.18%

Prima del Mercado. Fuente: Promedio

Geométrico Damodaran “Stocks - T.Bonds”
años 1928-2022 (km-Kf) 1.32%
Riesgo País 8.12%

Beta desapalancado: Damodaran Bu 0.81

Composicion del capital invertido 2022
Deuda financiera 2022 5,999,600
Patrimonio 2022 8,832,559
Total capital Invertido (CI) 14,832,159
% Deuda Financiera del CI 40.45%
% Patrimonio del CI 59.55%

Apalancamiento financiero promedio

2022(Deuda / Patrimonio) 67.93%

Beta apalancado Bl 1.20

Prima Riesgo Negocio 1.58%

Ke corrientes USA 5.76%

Ke corrientes colombia 18.16%

Celda E62 Datos Basicos
Celda D74 Datos Basicos
CElda D71 Datos Basicos

Celda D67 Datos Basicos

Celda D70 Datos Basicos

Celda D75 Datos Basicos

Celda G31 Beta

Celda h31,h33 Datos Basicos

Celda H39 Datos Basicos

Bu * (1+D/E*(1-T)
f17*(1+f25*(1-F9))
f27*f14

f13+f28

=((1+f30)*(1+F7)/(1+F8)-1)+f15)
 Number
Industry Name Industria of firms Beta
Advertising Publicidad 61 1.08
Aerospace/Defense Aeroespacial 72 1.07
Air Transport Transporte aéreo 17 1.61
Apparel Vestir 51 1.1
Auto & Truck Auto y camión 19 1.28
Auto Parts Autopartes 52 1.2
Bank (Money Center) Banco (Centro de dinero) 7 0.83
Banks (Regional) Bancos (regionales) 598 0.64
Beverage (Alcoholic) Bebida (alcohólica) 23 0.78
Beverage (Soft) Bebida (blanda) 41 0.79
Broadcasting Radiodifusión 29 1.13
Brokerage & Investment Banking Corretaje y banca de inversión 39 1.13
Building Materials Materiales de construcción 42 1.09
Business & Consumer Services Servicios para empresas y consumidore 169 0.93
Cable TV Televisión por cable 13 0.94
Chemical (Basic) Químico (básico) 48 0.99
Chemical (Diversified) Químico (diversificado) 5 1.36
Chemical (Specialty) Química (especialidad) 97 0.93
Coal & Related Energy Carbón y energía relacionada 29 0.83
Computer Services Servicios informáticos 116 1.12
Computers/Peripherals Computadoras / Periféricos 52 1.18
Construction Supplies Suministros de construcción 46 1.02
Diversified Diversificado 29 1.02
Drugs (Biotechnology) Drogas (Biotecnología) 547 0.89
Drugs (Pharmaceutical) Drogas (farmacéuticas) 287 0.91
Education Educación 38 1.15
Electrical Equipment Equipo eléctrico 122 1.06
Electronics (Consumer & Office) Electrónica (Consumo y Oficina) 22 0.96
Electronics (General) Electrónica (general) 157 0.89
Engineering/Construction Ingeniería / Construcción 61 1.06
Entertainment Entretenimiento 118 0.88
Environmental & Waste Services Servicios medioambientales y de residu 86 0.95
Farming/Agriculture Agricultura / Agricultura 32 0.87
Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insuran Svcs financieros. (No bancario y asegur 235 0.8
Food Processing Procesamiento de alimentos 101 0.64
Food Wholesalers Mayoristas de Comida 18 1.03
Furn/Home Furnishings Muebles / Mobiliario para el hogar 40 0.88
Green & Renewable Energy Energía verde y renovable 25 0.98
Healthcare Products Productos para el cuidado de la salud 265 0.83
Healthcare Support Services Servicios de asistencia sanitaria 129 0.85
Heathcare Information and Technol Información y tecnología sanitaria 139 0.79
Homebuilding Construcción de viviendas 30 1.46
Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities Hospitales / Instalaciones sanitarias 32 1.28
Hotel/Gaming Hotel / Juegos 66 1.56
Household Products Productos domésticos 140 0.73
Information Services Servicios de información 77 1.01
Insurance (General) Seguro (general) 21 0.68
Insurance (Life) Seguro (vida) 26 0.98
Insurance (Prop/Cas.) Seguro (Prop / Cas.) 55 0.64
Investments & Asset Management Inversiones y gestión de activos 348 0.93
Machinery Maquinaria 125 1.05
Metals & Mining Metales y minería 86 0.9
Office Equipment & Services Equipos y servicios de oficina 22 1
Oil/Gas (Integrated) Petróleo / Gas (Integrado) 3 1.26
Oil/Gas (Production and Exploratio Petróleo / Gas (Producción y Exploració 278 1.18
Oil/Gas Distribution Distribución de petróleo / gas 57 1.16
Oilfield Svcs/Equip. Oilfield Svcs / Equip. 135 1.21
Packaging & Container Embalaje y contenedor 26 0.92
Paper/Forest Products Productos de papel / forestales 15 1.14
Power Poder 55 0.67
Precious Metals Metales preciosos 93 0.76
Publishing & Newspapers Publicaciones y periódicos 29 1.41
R.E.I.T. R.E.I.T. 238 1.21
Real Estate (Development) Desarrollo inmobiliario) 25 0.85
Real Estate (General/Diversified) Bienes Raíces (General / Diversificado) 11 0.78
Real Estate (Operations & Services) Inmobiliaria (operaciones y servicios) 61 0.92
Recreation Recreación 69 0.87
Reinsurance Reaseguro 2 1.16
Restaurant/Dining Restaurante / Comedor 79 1.34
Retail (Automotive) Minorista (automotriz) 30 1.3
Retail (Building Supply) Minorista (material de construcción) 15 1.54
Retail (Distributors) Minorista (distribuidores) 85 0.97
Retail (General) Minorista (general) 17 0.9
Retail (Grocery and Food) Minorista (abarrotes y alimentación) 14 0.24
Retail (Online) Minorista (en línea) 75 1.16
Retail (Special Lines) Minorista (líneas especiales) 85 1.28
Rubber& Tires Neumáticos de goma 3 1.09
Semiconductor Semiconductor 70 1
Semiconductor Equip Equipo de semiconductores 40 1.07
Shipbuilding & Marine Construcción naval y marina 11 1.04
Shoe Zapato 11 0.98
Software (Entertainment) Software (entretenimiento) 101 0.96
Software (Internet) Software (Internet) 36 0.77
Software (System & Application) Software (sistema y aplicación) 388 0.91
Steel Acero 32 0.95
Telecom (Wireless) Telecom (inalámbrica) 16 0.53
Telecom. Equipment Telecom. Equipo 96 0.87
Telecom. Services Telecom. Servicios 58 0.66
Tobacco Tabaco 15 0.72
Transportation Transporte 21 0.91
Transportation (Railroads) Transporte (ferrocarriles) 6 0.84
Trucking Camionaje 35 1.11
Utility (General) Utilidad (general) 16 0.74
Utility (Water) Utilidad (agua) 17 0.73
Total Market Mercado total 7582 0.94
Total Market (without financials) Mercado total (sin finanzas) 6253 0.98

Fuente: Betas (nyu.edu)

 Standard
deviation
in
Unlevered operating
Cash/ beta Standard income
Effective Unlevered Firm corrected deviation (last 10
D/E Ratio Tax rate beta value for cash HiLo Risk of equity years)
77.50% 3.35% 0.69 11.23% 0.77 0.7654 57.74% 14.31%
33.05% 7.37% 0.86 5.93% 0.91 0.594 34.89% 16.42%
161.36% 6.00% 0.74 19.71% 0.91 0.6543 46.15% 48.05%
39.39% 4.75% 0.85 9.39% 0.94 0.6549 47.84% 10.37%
38.67% 7.86% 1 4.72% 1.05 0.716 45.24% 28.30%
24.37% 7.35% 1.02 6.59% 1.09 0.6981 43.16% 29.29%
216.19% 16.16% 0.32 46.36% 0.59 0.3411 21.59% NA
61.25% 16.42% 0.45 25.74% 0.6 0.3305 19.48% NA
23.41% 5.33% 0.66 1.68% 0.67 0.6156 37.01% 43.00%
21.60% 3.32% 0.68 3.39% 0.71 0.7605 49.70% 7.16%
121.72% 9.26% 0.6 8.50% 0.65 0.6275 45.56% 31.02%
218.88% 9.75% 0.44 24.48% 0.57 0.6202 35.90% 50.94%
26.29% 15.15% 0.91 5.89% 0.97 0.5248 33.99% 65.44%
24.72% 7.43% 0.79 5.41% 0.83 0.6474 45.65% 18.32%
51.96% 18.97% 0.68 2.41% 0.7 0.4219 32.02% 31.06%
55.12% 2.98% 0.71 7.00% 0.76 0.6892 48.06% 33.69%
58.10% 1.25% 0.96 7.64% 1.03 0.5312 36.16% 29.88%
25.35% 6.43% 0.78 4.44% 0.82 0.613 38.54% 12.48%
94.63% 0.00% 0.49 12.92% 0.56 0.7276 42.27% 166.17%
39.75% 5.55% 0.87 7.89% 0.94 0.6799 45.89% 11.40%
9.36% 3.71% 1.11 2.72% 1.14 0.6474 42.87% 16.74%
34.78% 10.79% 0.81 6.64% 0.87 0.5214 33.39% 25.62%
29.74% 6.52% 0.84 5.70% 0.89 0.607 29.94% 43.94%
15.50% 0.52% 0.8 6.50% 0.85 0.6269 50.10% 37.69%
18.18% 1.88% 0.8 4.24% 0.84 0.6896 55.45% 7.70%
24.33% 4.02% 0.97 8.97% 1.07 0.6972 55.73% 37.21%
15.35% 4.44% 0.95 4.90% 1 0.7199 55.12% 14.73%
9.50% 1.05% 0.89 11.62% 1.01 0.6915 54.91% 324.99%
13.48% 6.11% 0.81 6.09% 0.86 0.6441 43.87% 19.57%
28.24% 9.31% 0.88 8.35% 0.95 0.6438 42.04% 12.45%
15.20% 0.53% 0.79 5.26% 0.84 0.7648 68.06% 27.21%
25.20% 2.69% 0.81 1.92% 0.82 0.7096 50.43% 12.03%
45.05% 6.45% 0.66 4.07% 0.68 0.6185 45.30% 17.71%
895.89% 12.91% 0.11 3.11% 0.11 0.4639 27.74% 39.43%
33.01% 8.56% 0.51 3.64% 0.53 0.5418 32.56% 19.79%
56.02% 0.52% 0.73 8.97% 0.8 0.6916 58.03% 21.83%
34.06% 4.79% 0.71 9.25% 0.78 0.6664 40.52% 24.32%
64.06% 1.74% 0.67 1.44% 0.68 0.7946 56.04% 96.52%
10.69% 2.57% 0.77 3.45% 0.8 0.6221 46.19% 17.83%
31.70% 5.65% 0.69 6.49% 0.74 0.631 44.49% 23.65%
12.10% 4.16% 0.73 3.56% 0.75 0.6296 42.45% 33.87%
32.73% 15.91% 1.18 11.39% 1.33 0.5903 36.56% 71.78%
99.40% 8.16% 0.74 7.94% 0.8 0.6525 49.21% 19.15%
57.24% 2.02% 1.1 7.25% 1.19 0.6532 43.69% 28.72%
14.85% 5.06% 0.66 3.68% 0.68 0.7334 54.66% 4.06%
9.37% 9.75% 0.95 3.01% 0.97 0.5868 42.37% 33.30%
40.81% 12.61% 0.53 5.92% 0.56 0.4707 30.12% 33.64%
119.95% 15.12% 0.52 19.22% 0.64 0.4603 30.68% 13.19%
25.06% 10.86% 0.54 5.96% 0.58 0.3843 22.93% 28.87%
45.22% 4.64% 0.7 11.00% 0.78 0.3589 28.85% 13.93%
19.65% 8.81% 0.92 4.30% 0.96 0.5858 34.28% 19.96%
23.86% 1.70% 0.77 6.04% 0.82 0.7868 67.84% 43.63%
47.82% 13.20% 0.74 11.13% 0.83 0.5707 31.11% 10.27%
44.09% 8.54% 0.95 3.46% 0.98 0.5036 26.39% 73.81%
72.08% 0.68% 0.78 4.36% 0.81 0.7659 56.28% 154.38%
129.69% 4.55% 0.59 1.37% 0.6 0.6544 40.78% 42.75%
77.44% 1.19% 0.77 7.61% 0.83 0.739 50.27% 40.23%
55.11% 15.67% 0.66 3.68% 0.68 0.4567 29.22% 14.05%
37.52% 5.94% 0.89 6.81% 0.96 0.6176 35.67% 23.13%
78.08% 9.91% 0.42 1.47% 0.43 0.3667 19.86% 8.37%
12.69% 1.08% 0.69 7.93% 0.75 0.7766 67.76% 75.51%
54.00% 5.76% 1.01 8.67% 1.1 0.5486 37.47% 9.42%
76.73% 1.26% 0.77 2.69% 0.79 0.4901 32.40% 28.84%
94.70% 2.84% 0.5 11.06% 0.56 0.6852 60.70% 103.87%
29.22% 7.34% 0.64 15.20% 0.76 0.5515 20.99% 144.66%
40.79% 4.38% 0.71 6.12% 0.75 0.6408 34.72% 31.94%
24.50% 5.78% 0.74 5.05% 0.77 0.7368 56.40% 13.69%
38.52% 12.57% 0.91 19.61% 1.13 0.4135 25.23% 30.07%
33.70% 3.19% 1.08 2.85% 1.11 0.6957 53.63% 9.97%
49.71% 11.65% 0.95 3.77% 0.99 0.6174 42.82% 20.95%
18.08% 13.48% 1.36 5.00% 1.43 0.7107 40.60% 25.54%
45.74% 12.21% 0.73 3.52% 0.75 0.6391 41.97% 27.75%
21.34% 12.48% 0.78 4.66% 0.81 0.5433 38.91% 5.11%
94.34% 13.52% 0.14 5.82% 0.15 0.489 37.72% 24.45%
7.15% 2.93% 1.11 2.75% 1.14 0.7481 52.87% 53.23%
48.26% 8.06% 0.95 8.57% 1.03 0.6683 49.01% 10.73%
174.90% 5.30% 0.48 12.32% 0.54 0.634 43.83% 28.86%
9.71% 6.41% 0.94 2.71% 0.96 0.5537 37.26% 31.50%
 8.03% 7.38% 1.01 5.40% 1.07 0.5698 35.91% 50.04%
62.15% 2.30% 0.71 4.31% 0.74 0.554 29.83% 34.03%
6.87% 6.63% 0.94 4.30% 0.98 0.5757 31.50% 21.45%
2.62% 0.58% 0.94 1.96% 0.96 0.7489 62.61% 58.98%
8.83% 3.30% 0.73 3.03% 0.75 0.6398 32.73% 40.41%
6.55% 2.77% 0.87 2.68% 0.89 0.6702 47.97% 17.34%
50.24% 6.01% 0.7 11.19% 0.78 0.5662 39.32% 46.61%
54.57% 3.57% 0.38 3.34% 0.39 0.6234 39.78% 57.80%
14.80% 3.85% 0.78 5.72% 0.83 0.6389 43.11% 17.00%
83.14% 3.93% 0.41 2.77% 0.42 0.6187 43.53% 27.98%
30.31% 8.69% 0.59 3.54% 0.61 0.6541 24.49% 6.19%
31.69% 10.56% 0.74 6.36% 0.79 0.5864 28.68% 22.43%
22.54% 15.58% 0.73 2.12% 0.74 0.5022 16.83% 15.14%
33.76% 9.70% 0.89 5.71% 0.94 0.612 38.78% 126.49%
74.69% 9.74% 0.48 1.41% 0.48 0.2816 18.44% 8.77%
40.46% 10.79% 0.57 1.10% 0.57 0.4501 35.96% 14.78%
48.33% 5.76% 0.7 6.97% 0.75 0.6017 41.21% 13.11%
25.10% 4.39% 0.83 4.06% 0.86 0.6495 44.77% 13.19%
 FORMAULA
DE ROBER
HAMADA
BL= Bu*{1+
(1-Tx)*(D/E)
}

Unlevered Unlevered Unlevered Unlevered Unlevered Average

Beta: Beta: Beta: Beta: Beta: (2016-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 21) (1-TX) (1-Tx)*(D/E)
0.74 0.91 0.78 0.87 0.93 0.83
1.2 0.94 0.99 1.09 1.08 1.03
0.85 0.76 0.67 0.63 0.84 0.78
0.88 0.71 0.85 0.76 0.83 0.83
0.47 0.38 0.59 0.34 0.53 0.56
1.08 0.94 0.92 0.97 0.95 0.99
0.47 0.41 0.32 0.43 0.56 0.46
0.36 0.36 0.39 0.4 0.43 0.42
0.82 0.71 1.12 1.05 0.92 0.88
0.99 0.78 0.63 1.04 1.09 0.87
0.75 0.7 0.65 0.51 0.73 0.67
0.46 0.42 0.54 0.46 0.57 0.5
0.98 0.87 0.99 0.91 1.02 0.96
0.95 0.85 1.01 1 0.89 0.92
0.89 0.82 0.67 0.76 0.78 0.77
0.81 0.68 0.96 1.12 0.99 0.89
1.27 1.22 1.79 1.49 1.21 1.34
1.01 0.98 0.95 0.99 0.96 0.95
0.39 0.61 1.04 0.97 1.05 0.77
1 0.83 0.94 1.05 0.95 0.95
1.22 0.94 0.93 1.5 1.64 1.23
1.18 1.02 0.95 1.15 1.1 1.05
0.74 0.63 1.01 1.14 1.25 0.94
1.19 1.25 1.36 1.43 1.39 1.24
0.94 0.93 1.13 1.38 1.29 1.08
0.86 1.05 0.96 1.11 1.36 1.07
1.03 1.04 1.02 1.18 1.31 1.1
1.16 0.97 1.08 1.22 1.25 1.12
0.98 0.83 0.91 0.96 1.07 0.93
1.07 1.01 1.13 0.81 1.33 1.05
0.98 0.97 0.96 1.21 1.2 1.03
0.82 0.63 0.7 0.96 1.05 0.83
0.77 0.62 0.56 0.5 0.63 0.63
0.06 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.1 0.08
0.74 0.63 0.56 0.61 0.7 0.63
0.61 0.93 1.41 1.23 0.66 0.94
1 0.69 0.67 0.67 0.82 0.77
0.84 0.47 0.72 0.8 0.59 0.68
0.92 0.92 0.89 1.04 0.98 0.92
0.89 0.82 0.82 1.03 0.95 0.87
0.99 0.83 0.88 1.18 1.15 0.96
0.81 0.77 0.89 0.72 0.66 0.86
0.44 0.45 0.51 0.55 0.63 0.56
0.68 0.67 0.74 0.71 0.91 0.82
0.91 0.69 0.88 1 0.94 0.85
0.92 0.87 0.82 1.05 1.03 0.94
0.82 0.71 0.63 0.67 0.59 0.66
0.91 0.8 0.81 0.7 0.73 0.77
0.75 0.7 0.73 0.65 0.59 0.67
0.81 0.68 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.81
1.23 0.93 1.04 1.01 1.1 1.04
0.87 0.89 0.96 1.11 1.09 0.96
1.29 1.09 1.1 1.33 1.24 1.15
1.38 0.95 1.25 1.06 1.12 1.12
0.95 0.99 1 1.07 1.08 0.98
0.65 0.69 0.72 0.62 0.62 0.65
1.41 1.11 1.06 1.07 1.22 1.12
0.91 0.6 0.55 0.74 0.68 0.69
0.89 0.83 0.98 1.17 1.25 1.01
0.5 0.33 0.32 0.35 0.38 0.38
1.03 1.1 0.95 1.15 1.33 1.05
1.07 0.96 0.83 0.9 0.76 0.94
0.41 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.48
0.93 0.47 0.61 0.87 0.89 0.72
1.03 1.09 0.73 1.33 1.5 1.07
0.99 0.62 0.8 0.95 0.68 0.8
0.75 0.76 0.73 0.81 0.75 0.76
0.89 0.65 0.47 0.88 0.77 0.8
0.64 0.61 0.7 0.65 0.75 0.74
0.76 0.63 0.65 0.76 0.87 0.77
1.31 1.12 0.76 0.97 1.15 1.12
0.83 0.77 0.87 0.99 0.89 0.85
0.92 0.82 0.87 0.75 0.95 0.86
0.77 0.46 0.44 0.28 0.35 0.41
1.53 1.17 1.12 1.34 1.16 1.24
0.81 0.76 0.82 0.8 0.69 0.82
1.18 0.89 0.64 0.24 0.45 0.66
1.32 1.11 1.16 1.26 1.24 1.17
1.22 1.1 0.99 1.39 1.25 1.17
0.84 0.85 1.01 0.78 1.57 0.97
0.81 0.83 0.86 0.74 0.83 0.84
1.46 0.96 0.91 1.27 1.29 1.14
1.33 1.12 1.2 1.31 1.5 1.2
1.25 0.99 1.02 1.16 1.15 1.08
0.86 1.19 1.53 1.29 1.29 1.16
0.65 0.58 0.71 0.71 0.6 0.61
1.17 0.86 0.96 1.02 0.84 0.95
0.57 0.68 0.72 0.74 0.67 0.63
1.66 1.13 1.15 1.13 1.43 1.18
1.19 0.83 0.8 0.9 0.96 0.91
0.93 0.66 0.87 2.08 1.89 1.19
1.03 0.76 0.81 0.71 1.04 0.88
0.36 0.25 0.2 0.17 0.19 0.28
0.33 0.47 0.27 0.32 0.57 0.42
0.73 0.65 0.72 0.8 0.83 0.75
0.9 0.85 0.9 1 1.01 0.92
 [1+(1- Bu*[1+(1-
Tx)*(D/E)] Tx)*(D/E)]
 NCR
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS y FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
PROYECTADO
PROPÓSITO VALORACIÓN
0 1 2
Detalle 2022 2023 2024
VENTAS 24,235,200 25,955,899
Costos de ventas 15,396,929 16,490,110
UTILIDAD BRUTA 8,838,271 9,465,789
gastos operacionales Ex Dep 3,887,182 4,163,172
EBITDA 4,951,089 5,302,616
depreciación 1,161,580 1,279,596
EBIT. (UAII). UTIL OPER 3,789,509 4,023,020
impuestos aplicados 30% 1,136,853 1,206,906
UODI - NOPAT 2,652,656 2,816,114
+Depreciación ` 1,161,580 1,279,596
INVERSIÓN
INVERSIÓN NETA
+/-cambios en CTNO BRUTA (349,057) (268,711)
Menos:compras a fijo (1,715,312) (1,320,480)
FCL 1,749,867 2,506,520

FCL 0 1 2
periodo relevante
Valoración por FCL
Crecimiento del FCL Optimista (g)
Inflación ultimo año Realista (if)
Sin inflación, sin crecimiento Pesimista (0)

Vp fcl(1-5) 14.21% 8,895,205

Vp fcl(6-Infinito)Optimista 14.21% $ 30,311,816
Vp Fcl(6-Infinito)Real 14.21% $ 17,144,110
Vp Fcl(6-Infinito) Pesimista 14.21% $ 12,921,475
VALOR DE LA empresa 2022
Detalle Optimista Realista
+ VP (1-5) 8,895,205 8,895,205
+ Vp continuidad(6-Infinito) 30,311,816 17,144,110
= VR de las Operaciones = VE 39,207,021 26,039,315
- Pasivos Financieros 5,999,600 5,999,600
= Valor patrimonial 33,207,421 20,039,715
28,619,517

Valoración por EVAS 0 1 2

2022 2023 2024
Activos para EVA (CI) 14,832,159 15,734,948 16,044,542
EVAS (1-5) = Prima 14.21% 544,980 580,150
MVA(1-5) = Prima 14.21% 2,434,328
MVA(6-infinito) Optimista 14.21% $ 21,940,533
MVA(6-Infinito) Real 14.21% $ 8,772,828
MVA(6-Infinito) Pesimista 14.21% $ 4,550,193
Valoracion momento cero 2021
Detalle Optimista Realista
+ MVA(1-5) = [Primas 2,434,328 2,434,328
+ MVA((6-Infinito) 21,940,533 8,772,828
= Total primas(1- Infinito) Total MVA 24,374,862 11,207,156
+ Activos antes de la valoración(evas) CI 14,832,159 14,832,159
= Valor de la empresa 39,207,021 26,039,315
- Pasivos financieros 5,999,600 5,999,600
= Valor patrimonial 33,207,421 20,039,715

VALORACION POR FCL = X EVAS 1 1

METODO 2 PARA CALCULAR LAS PRIMAS

Valor de las operaciones Metodo FCL
Menos: activos para EVA
Total Primas
Total primas Método De Eva
Son Iguales? 1 TRUE
 3 4 5 6
2025 2026 2027 2028
27,588,006 29,210,319 30,928,032 32,650,723
17,527,009 18,557,684 19,648,969 20,743,417
10,060,998 10,652,634 11,279,063 11,907,306
4,424,953 4,685,162 4,960,673 5,236,982
5,636,045 5,967,472 6,318,390 6,670,324 Utilidad operativa de caja
1,370,448 1,456,621 1,542,278 1,632,972
4,265,597 4,510,851 4,776,112 5,037,352 Utilidad del negocio ( ci)
1,279,679 1,353,255 1,432,833 1,511,206
2,985,918 3,157,596 3,343,278 3,526,147 Utilidad de los dueños del CI
1,370,448 1,456,621 1,542,278 1,632,972

(254,876) (253,346) (268,244) (269,022)

(1,252,493) (1,244,977) (1,318,188) (1,322,009)
2,848,997 3,115,894 3,299,124 3,568,088 FCL para los dueños del capital (Pasivo financiero + Pat
Año (0) del VC
3 4 5 6
periodo relevante FC para calcular VC

8.15%
3.50%
0%

VF VE = CI + PRIMA PRIMA = MVA

58,902,803 VC₅ = CI₅ + MVA₅
33,314,933
25,109,386 MVA₅ = VC₅ - CI₅
LA empresa 2022
pesimista Promedio
8,895,205
12,921,475
21,816,680 Activos a vr comercial
5,999,600 pasivos a vr comercial
15,817,080 Patrimonio a Vr comercial

3 4 5 6
2025 2026 2027 2028
16,181,464 16,223,165 16,267,320 16,225,378
705,960 858,181 1,037,938 Son Utilidades reales, aumentan el valor de la empresa
 Esta suma debe estar en un t igu
42,635,483 MVA₅ = VC fcl₅ - CI₅
17,047,614
8,842,067
omento cero 2021
Pesimista
2,434,328
4,550,193
6,984,521
14,832,159
21,816,680
5,999,600
15,817,080

TRUE
 pital (Pasivo financiero + Patrimonio)

mentan el valor de la empresa

a suma debe estar en un t igual para todos los componetes de la ecuacion
 NCR
ESTADO DER SITUACIÓN FINANCIERA
PROYECTADO
0 1 2
Detalle 2022 2023 2024
Efectivo 890,400 980,865 1,050,506
Cuentas por Cobrar 2,310,000 2,544,696 2,725,369
Materia prima 1,113,000 1,226,081 1,313,133
Producto en proceso 467,460 514,954 551,516
Producto terminado 1,402,380 1,544,862 1,654,547

ACTIVOS CORRIENTE 6,183,240 6,811,457 7,295,071

Terrenos 2,565,200 2,825,824 3,026,458

Edificios 5,441,619 5,994,487 6,420,096
Maquinas 6,121,500 6,743,444 7,222,229
Vehiculos 1,224,300 1,348,689 1,444,446
Equipo de computo 1,530,375 1,685,861 1,805,557

Depreciacion Acumulada 5,486,435 6,648,015 7,927,611

ACTIVO FIJO NETO 11,396,559 11,950,291 11,991,175

ACTIVOS NO OPERACIONALES
TOTAL ACTIVOS 17,579,799 18,761,749 19,286,245

PASIVO Y PATRIMONIO
Proveedores 1,228,395 1,353,200 1,449,277
Cuentas por pagar 934,920 1,029,908 1,103,031
Impuestos por pagar 584,325 643,692 689,395
Pasivos Financieros 2,205,000 2,205,000 2,205,000

PASIVO CORRIENTE 4,952,640 5,231,800 5,446,703

PASIVO DE LP 3,794,600 3,794,600 3,794,600

TOTAL PASIVO 8,747,240 9,026,400 9,241,303

 PATRIMONIO
CAPITAL 7,183,000 7,183,000 7,183,000
UODI 2,652,656 2,816,114
UTILIDADES RETENIDAS 1,649,559 1,649,559 2,552,348
DIVIDENDOS (FCL) 1,749,867 2,506,520
TOTAL PATRIMONIO 8,832,559 9,735,348 10,044,942

PASIVO MAS PATRIMONIO 17,579,799 18,761,749 19,286,245

ACTIVO 17,579,799 18,761,749 19,286,245

ACTIVO = PAS + PAT 1 TRUE TRUE
Activos para EVA = CI $ 14,832,159 $ 15,734,948 $ 16,044,542
-
Activos totales SEGÚN BALANCE
Menos: Activos no operacionales
Pasivo Espontaneos
Activos para el calculo del EVA

Actvos para EVA metodo Alterno

Activo fijo neto

+ CTNO
Activos para el calculo del EVA
 3 4 5 6
2025 2026 2027 2028
1,116,562 1,182,221 1,251,742 1,321,464
2,896,741 3,067,083 3,247,443 3,428,326
1,395,702 1,477,777 1,564,677 1,651,830
586,195 620,666 657,164 693,768
1,758,585 1,861,998 1,971,493 2,081,305

7,753,785 8,209,746 8,692,520 9,176,693

3,216,762 3,405,923 3,606,208 3,807,074

6,823,792 7,225,065 7,649,935 8,076,036
7,676,363 8,127,771 8,605,725 9,085,064
1,535,273 1,625,554 1,721,145 1,817,013
1,919,091 2,031,943 2,151,431 2,271,266

9,298,059 10,754,680 12,296,959 13,929,930

11,873,220 11,661,576 11,437,486 11,126,522

19,627,005 19,871,322 20,130,006 20,303,216

1,540,408 1,630,991 1,726,902 1,823,090

1,172,390 1,241,332 1,314,329 1,387,537
732,744 775,833 821,456 867,211
2,205,000 2,205,000 2,205,000 2,205,000

5,650,541 5,853,156 6,067,686 6,282,838

3,794,600 3,794,600 3,794,600 3,794,600

9,445,141 9,647,756 9,862,286 10,077,438

 7,183,000 7,183,000 7,183,000 7,183,000
2,985,918 3,157,596 3,343,278 3,526,147 Ultima cifra del estado de resultad
2,861,942 2,998,864 3,040,565 3,084,720
2,848,997 3,115,894 3,299,124 3,568,088 Ultima cifra del fcl
10,181,864 10,223,565 10,267,720 10,225,778

19,627,005 19,871,322 20,130,006 20,303,216

19,627,005 19,871,322 20,130,006 20,303,216

TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE
$ 16,181,464 $ 16,223,165 $ 16,267,320 $ 16,225,378
ifra del estado de resultados

cifra del fcl

NCR
datos basicos cuatro valoraciones
OPTIMISTA
Años 0 1 2 3 4
FCF $ 1,749,867 $ 2,506,520 $ 2,848,997 $ 3,115,894
FCE $ 1,735,024 $ 2,490,466 $ 2,831,634 $ 3,097,116
CCF $ 1,965,853 $ 2,740,114 $ 3,101,635 $ 3,389,128
CFD D12-D17 Bancos $ 230,829 $ 249,648 $ 270,001 $ 292,013

Deuda $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722 $ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617

Intereses $ 719,952 $ 778,647 $ 842,127 $ 910,782
TS ( ahorro de impuestos) $ 215,986 $ 233,594 $ 252,638 $ 273,235
Kd 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%
Ku puede ser DB 19.91% 17.63% 14.59% 13.57% 13.07%
T 30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
Cambios en la deuda deuda $ 489,123 $ 528,999 $ 572,126 $ 618,769
g

Bu Operativo 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81

Kf Tasa libre de 4.18% 4.18% 4.18% 4.18% 4.18%
Km-Kf PM 1.32% 1.32% 1.32% 1.32% 1.32%
Ku USA Kf+Bu*(PM) 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25% 5.25%
If COP 13.12% 8.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.50%
If USA 6.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8%
RP = Riesgo país 8.12% 8.12% 8.12% 8.12% 8.12%
Ku COP 19.91% 17.63% 14.59% 13.57% 13.07%

Ku = Costo del patrimonio sin deuda CI = Patrimonio (Hipotético) cppc sin riesgo financiero

C APM = Ke = Kf +B*(km-Kf)
Km-Kf = PM
 5 6
$ 3,299,124 $ 3,568,088
$ 3,278,815 $ 3,546,123 FCF -CFD + TS
$ 3,594,634 $ 3,887,690 FCF + TS
$ 315,819 $ 341,567 + intereses-Aum deuda

$ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605
Ke= Ku +(Ku-Kd)*(Dt-1 - VTSt-1)/Et-1
$ 985,034 $ 1,065,340
$ 295,510 $ 319,602 WACC = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-T)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)
12.00% 12.00%
13.07% 13.07% WACCbt = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)
30% 30%
$ 669,215 $ 723,773
8.15% Crecimiento de flujo de caja libre

0.81 0.81
4.18% 4.18%
1.32% 1.32% 4% Kf
5.25% 5.25% Ku USA = Kf + Bu*(Km-Kf) 1.07% Prima del negocio*Empresa)
3.50% 3.50%
3.8% 3.8%
8.12% 8.12% Ku COP = ((1+ Ku USA)*(1+ if COP))/(1+if USA)-1 +Rp%
13.07% 13.07%

13.67% 9.51% 17.63%

rima del negocio*Empresa)

)-1 +Rp%
RAYMOND 1 2
Crecumiento de los flujos de Caja 8.15% 8.15%
Indice 1 1.0815 1.0815
Acumulado 1.0815 1.1697

Deuda financiera
Detalle Año 0 Año 1 Año 2
Deuda financiera cp $ 2,205,000 $ 2,384,765 $ 2,579,185
Deuda financiera LP $ 3,794,600 $ 4,103,958 $ 4,438,537
Total pasivo Financiero $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722

Tasa de interes Kd 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%

Intereses Kd*Dt-1 $ 719,952 $ 778,647
Tasa de Impuestos TS 30% 30% 30%
Ahorro de Impuestos TS =I*T $ 215,986 $ 233,594
Intereses neto de Impuestos $ 503,966 $ 545,053
Cambios en la deuda $ 489,123 $ 528,999

Ahorro de impuestos
Impuestos reales

Utilidad operativa
Menos: intereses
Utilidad antes de impuestos
Impuestos 30%
Utiliudad Neta
 3 4 5 6
8.15% 8.15% 8.15% 8.15%
1.0815 1.0815 1.0815 1.0815
1.2651 1.3682 1.4797 1.6004

Año 3 Año 4 Año 5 Año 6

$ 2,789,455 $ 3,016,868 $ 3,262,821 $ 3,528,825
$ 4,800,393 $ 5,191,749 $ 5,615,011 $ 6,072,780
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605

12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%

$ 842,127 $ 910,782 $ 985,034 $ 1,065,340
30% 30% 30% 30%
$ 252,638 $ 273,235 $ 295,510 $ 319,602
$ 589,489 $ 637,547 $ 689,524 $ 745,738
$ 572,126 $ 618,769 $ 669,215 $ 723,773
 NCR
ESTADO DE SITUACION
DICIEMBRE 31

ACTIVOS 2020 % /ventas/2020 2021 %/Ventas/2021

Efectivo 990,000 5% 880,000 4%
Cuentas por Cobrar 2,200,000 11% 2,310,000 11%
Materia prima 1,320,000 7% 1,100,000 5%
Producto en proceso 440,000 2% 462,000 2%
Producto terminado 1,320,000 7% 1,386,000 7%
Activo corriente 6,270,000 32% 6,138,000 29.23%

Terrenos 2,200,000 11% 2,420,000 12%

Edificios 3,300,000 17% 4,336,750 21%
Maquinas 5,500,000 28% 5,775,000 28%
Vehiculos 1,100,000 6% 1,155,000 6%
Equipo de computo 1,375,000 7% 1,443,750 7%

Activo fijo Bruto 13,475,000 69% 15,130,500 72%

Depreciacion Acumulada 3,575,000 4,415,250
Activo Fijo NETO 9,900,000 10,715,250

Total Activo 16,170,000 16,853,250

PASIVOS
Proveedores 1,260,000 6% 1,155,000 6%
Cuentas por pagar 840,000 4% 882,000 4%
Impuestos por pagar 525,000 3% 551,250 3%
Pasivos Financieros 2,100,000 2,157,750
Total pasivos Corrientes 4,725,000 4,746,000 12%

Pasivo Financiero de LP 3,320,000 3,530,000

+
Total Pasivo 8,045,000 8,276,000

Capital 6,600,000 6,776,000

Utilidades Retenidas 1,525,000 1,801,250
PATRIMONIO 8,125,000 8,577,250

Total pasivo + Patrimonio 16,170,000 16,853,250

Diferencia - -
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
2,020 % 2021 %
Ventas 19,400,000 100.00% 21,000,000 100.00%
Costo de ventas 12,700,000 65.46% 13,200,000 62.86%
Utilidad Bruta 6,700,000 34.54% 7,800,000 37.14%
Gastos de operación excluida depreciacion 3,200,000 16.49% 3,300,000 15.71%
Depreciacion 7% 943,250 4.86% 1,059,135 5.04%
Utilidad operacional 2,556,750 13.18% 3,440,865 16.39%
Intereses 12% 650,400 3.35% 682,530 3.25%
UAI 1,906,350 9.83% 2,758,335 13.13%
Impuestos 30% 571,905 2.95% 827,501 3.94%
Utilidad Neta 1,334,445 6.88% 1,930,835 9.19%

Datos Financieros y economicos

Venta Ultimo Año $ 22,000,000 PERIODO Relevante

2022 2023 2024 2025
Crecimiento anual de venUnidades 2.00% 2.00% 2.20%
Inflacion 8.00% 5.00% 4.00%
Costo de ventas a ventas 63.53% 63.53% 63.53% 63.53%
Gastos operacionales a ventas excl dep 16.04% 16.04% 16.04% 16.04%
Tasa Interes pasivo fcro kd 12.00% ver costo promedio ponderado de capital
Costo patrimonio Ke ver costo promedio ponderado de capital
Tasa Libre de riesgo Kf 4.18% Ke cppc capitulo 9
Km Rentabilidad Km 5.5% Ke cppc capitulo 9
B= Beta Riesgo sistematico 1.20 Ke cppc capitulo 9
Prima de Mercado 1.32% ke cppc capitulo 9
Tasa de impuestos 30%
Depreciacion Activo fijo bruto, tasa promedio 6.88%
Base 1
Inflación externa (Meta FED 2023) 3.8%
Riesgo Pais 8.12%

Se pide:

Valorar la empresa por los siguientes métodos:

1- Flujo de caja libre
2- Valor económico agregado (E V A)
3-Flujo de caja del accionista
4- Flujo de caja de capital
5- Valor presente ajustado (A P V)

Enfoques optimista, realista y pesimista Capitulo 11

TAREA:
Determine el procedimiento paso a paso, segun lo visto en clase.
 INFLACION 5%
105%

Promedio
2022 %/Ventas/2022 últimos 3 años
890,400 4.05% 4.45%
2,310,000 11% 10.95%
1,113,000 5% 5.70%
467,460 2% 2.20%
1,402,380 6% 6.59%
6,183,240 28.11% 29.88%

2,565,200 11.66% 11.51%

5,441,619 24.73% 20.80%
6,121,500 27.83% 27.89%
1,224,300 5.56% 5.58%
1,530,375 6.96% 6.97%

16,882,994 76.74% 72.75%

5,486,435
11,396,559

17,579,799

1,228,395 6% 5.86%
934,920 4% 4.26%
584,325 3% 2.66%
2,205,000
4,952,640

3,794,600

8,747,240

7,183,000
1,649,559
8,832,559

17,579,799
-

2022 % Promedio
22,000,000 100.00% 100.00%
13,700,000 62.27% 63.53%
 8,300,000 37.73% 36.47%
3,500,000 15.91% 16.04%
1,181,810 5.37% 5.09%
3,618,190 16.45% 15.34%
719,952 3.27% 3.29%
2,898,238 13.17% 12.05%
869,472 3.95% 3.61%
2,028,767 9.22% 8.43%

Sirve Para
calcular el VC
ODO Relevante
2026 2027 2028
2.30% 2.30% 2.00%
3.50% 3.50% 3.50%
63.53% 63.53% 63.53%
16.04% 16.04% 16.04%
 Ke = Ku +(ku-Kd)*(Dt-1 - VTSt-1)/Et-1
RAYMOND Optimista WACC = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-T)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)
calculo de Vu y VTS WACC bt= Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)

Años 0 1 2
Cálculo de Vu
FCF $ 1,749,867 $ 2,506,520
Vu = (FCF/Ku) $ 45,811,408 $ 52,137,102 $ 57,235,275
Ku 17.63% 14.59%
g

VALORACIONES VTS=(D*Kd*T/Kd)
TS = D*Kd*T $ 215,986 $ 233,594
VTS = (TS/Kd) $ 732,532 $ 604,450 $ 443,391
Kd 12.00% 12.00%
g o if onulo
Metodo FCF / WACC = V
Metodo FCF / WACC
FCF $ 1,749,867 $ 2,506,520
VP(FCF/WACC) =( D+E)=VE $ 49,139,239 $ 53,777,473 $ 58,262,025
D $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722
E $ 43,139,639 $ 47,288,750 $ 51,244,303
Ke 15.00% 15.00%
WACC 13.00% 13.00%
g

Metodo FCE/ Ke = E
FCE $ 1,735,024 $ 2,490,466
VP(FCE/Ke) = E $ 34,402,340 $ 37,827,668 $ 41,011,352
D $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722
E +D = VE $ 40,401,940 $ 44,316,390 $ 48,029,073
Ke 15.00% 15.00%
g

Metodo FCC/WACCbt = V
FCC $ 1,965,853 $ 2,740,114
VP(FCC/WACCbt)= D+E =VE $ 50,536,802 $ 48,570,949 $ 52,630,768
D $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722
E $ 44,537,202 $ 42,082,226 $ 45,613,046
Ke 15.00% 15.00%
WACCbt 14.00%
g

Método APV
Vu $ 45,811,408 $ 52,137,102 $ 57,235,275
VTS $ 732,532 $ 604,450 $ 443,391
Vu+VTS = D +E = VE $ 46,543,940 $ 52,741,552 $ 57,678,666
D $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722
E $ 40,544,340 $ 46,252,829 $ 50,660,944

Valoracion por EVAs

EVA/WACC
CI $ 14,832,159.0 $ 15,734,948.3 $ 16,044,542.3
UODI $ 2,652,656 $ 2,816,114 $ 2,985,918
EVAS
MVA (1 INF)
CI VE = MVA(0-INF) + CI $ 14,832,159 $ 15,734,948 $ 16,044,542
VE
D $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722
E -$ 5,999,600 -$ 6,488,723 -$ 7,017,722
WACC copio de fila 24 0.00% 13.00% 13.00%

Cálculo de la deuda
FCD/Kd
FCD $ 230,829 $ 249,648
D
Kd 12.00% 12.00%

Deuda Libros $ 5,999,600 $ 6,488,723 $ 7,017,722

Diferencia

VE E
APV $ 46,543,940 $ 40,544,340
FCL $ 49,139,239 $ 43,139,639 ALERTA
FCE $ 40,401,940 $ 34,402,340 ALERTA
FCC $ 50,536,802 $ 44,537,202 ALERTA
EVASs $ - -$ 5,999,600 ALERTA

Capital Invertido PATRIMONIO

 ku-Kd)*(Dt-1 - VTSt-1)/Et-1 Ke= Ku +(Ku-Kd)*(Dt-1 -
d*(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-T)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1) VTSt-1)/Et-1
= Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)
WACC = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-
3 4 5 6T)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)
o de Vu WACCbt = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-
$ 2,848,997 $ 3,115,894 $ 3,299,124 $ 3,568,0881)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-1)FCF
$ 62,154,246 $ 67,158,811 $ 72,633,994
13.57% 13.07% 13.07% 13.07%
8.15%

VTS=(D*Kd*T/Kd)
$ 252,638 $ 273,235 $ 295,510 $ 319,602
$ 243,959 $ 8,306,937
12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%
8.15%
F / WACC = V

$ 2,848,997 $ 3,115,894 $ 3,299,124 $ 3,568,088 FCF

$ 62,987,091 $ 68,059,519 $ 73,608,132
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605
$ 55,397,243 $ 59,850,902 $ 64,730,301 -$ 9,601,605
15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00%
8.15%

FCE/ Ke = E
$ 2,831,634 $ 3,097,116 $ 3,278,815 $ 3,546,123 FCE = FCE = FCL+/- Amort Deuda-Int +
$ 44,331,420 $ 47,884,017 51,787,805
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605
$ 51,921,268 $ 56,092,634 $ 60,665,637 $ 9,601,605
15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
8.15%

/WACCbt = V
$ 3,101,635 $ 3,389,128 $ 3,594,634 $ 3,887,690 FCC = FCF + TS
$ 56,897,441 $ 61,473,954 $ 66,485,674
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605
$ 49,307,593 $ 53,265,337 $ 57,607,842 -$ 9,601,605
15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
14.00% 14.00% 14.00% 14.00%
8.15%

$ 62,154,246 $ 67,158,811 $ 72,633,994 $ - Método

$ 243,959 $ - $ 8,306,937 $ - FCL
$ 62,398,205 $ 67,158,811 $ 80,940,931 $ - FCA
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605 FCC
$ 54,808,357 $ 58,950,194 $ 72,063,099 -$ 9,601,605 APV
EVA

$ 16,181,463.6 $ 16,223,165.4 $ 16,267,319.5

$ 3,157,596 $ 3,343,278 $ 3,526,147
$EVA=G53*(H54/G53-
0
H61)
$ 16,181,464 $ 16,223,165 $ 16,267,320

$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 MVA =

-$ 7,589,848 -$ 8,208,617 -$ 8,877,832 (H55+H56)/(1+H61)
13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00%

$ 270,001 $ 292,013 $ 315,819 $ 341,567

12.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%

8.15%
$ 7,589,848 $ 8,208,617 $ 8,877,832 $ 9,601,605
 *(Dt-1 -
NOTA
/Vt-1)*(1- Cálculo de VP Y VF
VP = Se toma el VF y se descuenta a
la tasa ubicada en el año (fecha) del
Dt-1/Vt- valor futuro.
VF = se toma el VP y se le aplica la
tasa ubicada en el perio siguiente.

CE = FCL+/- Amort Deuda-Int + TS = FCF - FCD + TS

CC = FCF + TS

VE VP VE/VE_APV
$ 49,139,239 $ 43,139,639 $ 1.0558
 $ 40,401,940 $ 34,402,340 $ 0.8680
$ 50,536,802 $ 44,537,202 $ 1.0858
$ 46,543,940 $ 40,544,340 $ 1.0000
$ - -$ 5,999,600 $ -

54/G53-

6)/(1+H61)
Ke =Ku+(Ku-Kd)*(Dt-1 - VTSt-1)/E

WACC = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-T)+Ke*(Et-
1/Vt-1)

WACC bt = Kd*(Dt-1/Vt-1)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-
1)
Kd)*(Dt-1 - VTSt-1)/E

(Dt-1/Vt-1)*(1-T)+Ke*(Et-

d*(Dt-1/Vt-1)+Ke*(Et-1/Vt-
 NCR
CTNO
PROYECTADO - 1 2 3 4 5
% sobre
ventas
2022 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027
Efectivo 4.05% 890,400 980,865 1,050,506 1,116,562 1,182,221 1,251,742
Cuentas por Cobrar 10.50% 2,310,000 2,544,696 2,725,369 2,896,741 3,067,083 3,247,443
Materia prima 5.06% 1,113,000 1,226,081 1,313,133 1,395,702 1,477,777 1,564,677
Producto en proceso 2.12% 467,460 514,954 551,516 586,195 620,666 657,164
Producto terminado 6.37% 1,402,380 1,544,862 1,654,547 1,758,585 1,861,998 1,971,493

Activos corrientes 28.11% 6,183,240 6,811,457 7,295,071 7,753,785 8,209,746 8,692,520

Proveedores 5.58% 1,228,395 1,353,200 1,449,277 1,540,408 1,630,991 1,726,902

Cuentas por pagar 4.25% 934,920 1,029,908 1,103,031 1,172,390 1,241,332 1,314,329
Impuestos por pagar 2.66% 584,325 643,692 689,395 732,744 775,833 821,456
Pasivos espontaneos 12.49% 2,747,640 3,026,800 3,241,703 3,445,541 3,648,156 3,862,686
CTNO 15.62% 3,435,600 3,784,657 4,053,368 4,308,243 4,561,590 4,829,834
cambios en CTNO 15.62% 349,057 268,711 254,876 253,346 268,244

Activos para EVA O CI 14,832,159 15,734,948 16,044,542 16,181,464 16,223,165 16,267,320

 6

2,028
1,321,464 ESF
3,428,326 ESF
1,651,830 ESF
693,768 ESF
2,081,305 ESF

9,176,693 ESF

1,823,090 ESF
1,387,537 ESF
867,211 ESF
4,077,838 ESF
5,098,856 ESF
269,022 FCL

16,225,378 EVA
RAYMOND JAMES
FLUJO DE CAJA LIBRE
FLUJO DE CAJA DE ACREEDORES FINANCIE
1 2 3
UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL $ 3,789,509 $ 4,023,020 $ 4,265,597
Menos:Impuestos Aplicados 30% $ 1,136,853 $ 1,206,906 $ 1,279,679
UODI $ 2,652,656 $ 2,816,114 $ 2,985,918
Mas: Depreciación de año $ 1,161,580 $ 1,279,596 $ 1,370,448
+/- Cambios CTNO -$ 349,057 -$ 268,711 -$ 254,876
+/- Cambio AF -$ 1,715,312 -$ 1,320,480 -$ 1,252,493
FCL $ 1,749,867 $ 2,506,520 $ 2,848,997

FLUJO DE CAJA DE SOCIOS

1 2 3
UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL $ 3,789,509 $ 4,023,020 $ 4,265,597
Menos: Intereses $ 719,952 $ 778,647 $ 842,127
UAI $ 3,069,557 $ 3,244,373 $ 3,423,471
Impuestos Reales 30% $ 920,867 $ 973,312 $ 1,027,041
UTILIDAD NETA $ 2,148,690 $ 2,271,061 $ 2,396,429
Mas: Depreciacion del año $ 1,161,580 $ 1,279,596 $ 1,370,448
+/- Cambios CTNO -$ 349,057 -$ 268,711 -$ 254,876
+/- Cambio AF -$ 1,715,312 -$ 1,320,480 -$ 1,252,493
SUBTOTAL $ 1,245,901 $ 1,961,467 $ 2,259,508
+/- Cambios en la deuda Finaniera $ 489,123 $ 528,999 $ 572,126
FCA ( FCE ) $ 1,735,024 $ 2,490,466 $ 2,831,634

FLUJO DE CAJA DE CAPITAL

1 2 3
UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL $ 3,789,509 $ 4,023,020 $ 4,265,597
Menos: Impuestos reales $ 920,867 $ 973,312 $ 1,027,041
UAI $ 2,868,642 $ 3,049,708 $ 3,238,556
Mas: Depreciacion del año $ 1,161,580 $ 1,279,596 $ 1,370,448
+/- Cambios CTNO -$ 349,057 -$ 268,711 -$ 254,876
+/- Cambio AF -$ 1,715,312 -$ 1,320,480 -$ 1,252,493
FCC $ 1,965,853 $ 2,740,114 $ 3,101,635

FLUJO DE CAJA DE LA DEUD

1 2 3
INTERESES $ 719,952 $ 778,647 $ 842,127
+/- Cambios en la deuda -$ 489,123 -$ 528,999 -$ 572,126
FCD $ 230,829 $ 249,648 $ 270,001
DE ACREEDORES FINANCIEROS Y SOCIOS
4 5 6
$ 4,510,851 $ 4,776,112 $ 5,037,352
$ 1,353,255 $ 1,432,833 $ 1,511,206
$ 3,157,596 $ 3,343,278 $ 3,526,147
$ 1,456,621 $ 1,542,278 $ 1,632,972
-$ 253,346 -$ 268,244 -$ 269,022
-$ 1,244,977 -$ 1,318,188 -$ 1,322,009
$ 3,115,894 $ 3,299,124 $ 3,568,088 1,749,867

UJO DE CAJA DE SOCIOS

4 5 6
$ 4,510,851 $ 4,776,112 $ 5,037,352
$ 910,782 $ 985,034 $ 1,065,340
$ 3,600,069 $ 3,791,078 $ 3,972,012
$ 1,080,021 $ 1,137,323 $ 1,191,604
$ 2,520,048 $ 2,653,754 $ 2,780,409
$ 1,456,621 $ 1,542,278 $ 1,632,972
-$ 253,346 -$ 268,244 -$ 269,022
-$ 1,244,977 -$ 1,318,188 -$ 1,322,009
$ 2,478,347 $ 2,609,600 $ 2,822,350
$ 618,769 $ 669,215 $ 723,773
$ 3,097,116 $ 3,278,815 $ 3,546,123 $ 1,735,024

UJO DE CAJA DE CAPITAL

4 5 6
$ 4,510,851 $ 4,776,112 $ 5,037,352
$ 1,080,021 $ 1,137,323 $ 1,191,604
$ 3,430,830 $ 3,638,788 $ 3,845,749
$ 1,456,621 $ 1,542,278 $ 1,632,972
-$ 253,346 -$ 268,244 -$ 269,022
-$ 1,244,977 -$ 1,318,188 -$ 1,322,009
$ 3,389,128 $ 3,594,634 $ 3,887,690 1,965,853

JO DE CAJA DE LA DEUDA
4 5 6
$ 910,782 $ 985,034 $ 1,065,340
-$ 618,769 -$ 669,215 -$ 723,773
$ 292,013 $ 315,819 $ 341,567