Ejemplo: Tomar o no un Nuevo Empleo (Datos en USD, Expresar el ingreso total en MXN)

Tipo de Cambio:
Modelo:
Ingresos

þ Precio 2,300 La Posición Ofrecida

þ Unidades rentadas 82 Gerente de un negocio de renta de equi
Ingreso total mensual 188,600 Ü
Costos Ü
þ Costo variable unitario 800

Costo variable total 65,600 Datos disponibles

þ Costo Fijo Mensual 14,800
Costo Total Mensual 80,400 Concepto
Margen Bruto 108,200 þ Precio:
2% Comisión Mensual 2,164 þ Costos variables:
Ingreso fijo 3,020 þ Costos fijos:
þ Tipo de Cambio 11.84 þ Unidades rentadas:
Ingreso total MXN 61,379 , þ Tipo de Cambio:
 11.84

sición Ofrecida
un negocio de renta de equipo
Sueldo: $3,020 por mes + 2% del margen bruto en ventas
Su siguiente mejor opción (actual) es $5,000 de salario fijo.

disponibles
Optimista Pesimista Más probable
2,500 2,050 2,100
600 800 755
10,000 16,000 15,500
100 80 85
14.39 11.50 12.73
Modelo:
Ingresos

þ Precio 2,217 Modelación de supuestos (inp

þ Unidades rentadas 85 Concepto
Ingreso total mensual 187,749 Precio:
Costos
þ Costo variable unitario 718 Unidades rentadas:
Costo variable total 60,842 Costos variables:
þ Costo Fijo Mensual 13,833 Costos fijos:
Costo Total Mensual 74,675
Margen Bruto 113,073 Tipo de Cambio:
2% Comisión Mensual 2,261
Ingreso fijo 3,020

þ Tipo de Cambio: 13.1007 Definición del pronóstico:

Ingreso total 69,191

n= 120
p= 0.705882353
q= 0.294117647

Media= 85
Desviación estándar= 5

x  np 85 = np

  npq 25 = npq

p  q 1 q= 1-p

n = 85/p
n=25/(pq)

Por igualación: 85/p = 25/(pq)

Eliminando "p": 85 = 25/q

Despejando "q": q = 25/85
q=
 p=
0.294117647058823
Sustituyendo para encontrar el valor de "n": n = 85/0.705882353 0.705882352941176

n= 120.416666666667
ón de supuestos (inputs):
Distribución Máximo Mínimo Más probable
Triangular 2,500 2,050 2,100
Media Desv. Est.: Tope:
Binomial 85 5 100
Triangular 800 600 755
Triangular 16,000 10,000 15,500
Ubicacion: Media: D.Est.:
Lognormal 12.3742 13.1007 0.4257

ición del pronóstico:

Pronostique el ingreso total
Banco de México http://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioIn

Tipos de cambio y resultados históricos de las subastas

Serie histórica diaria del tipo de cambio peso-dólar

Fecha de consulta: 06/09/2013 06:34:33

Serie histórica del tipo de

cambio, Tipo de cambio
Título peso dólar desde 1954

Periodo 19/04/1954 - 06/09/2013

disponible
Periodicidad Diaria
Cifra Tipo de Cambio
Unidad Pesos por Dólar
Base
Aviso
Tipo de Niveles
información
Fecha SF63528
1/4/2010 12.92260
1/5/2010 12.82410
1/6/2010 12.74890
1/7/2010 12.76460
1/8/2010 12.72430
1/11/2010 12.66920
1/12/2010 12.72910
1/13/2010 12.76980
1/14/2010 12.73640
1/15/2010 12.68840
1/18/2010 12.66640
1/19/2010 12.64780
1/20/2010 12.73880
1/21/2010 12.77200
1/22/2010 12.94120
1/25/2010 12.90180
1/26/2010 12.85490
1/27/2010 12.92950
1/28/2010 12.99750
1/29/2010 13.00980
 2/2/2010 12.86990
2/3/2010 12.93950
2/4/2010 13.06870
2/5/2010 13.17530
2/8/2010 13.16400
2/9/2010 13.08360
2/10/2010 13.06010
2/11/2010 13.06090
2/12/2010 12.97640
2/15/2010 12.94200
2/16/2010 12.86830
2/17/2010 12.87810
2/18/2010 12.84420
2/19/2010 12.83370
2/22/2010 12.80170
2/23/2010 12.85840
2/24/2010 12.85390
2/25/2010 12.85030
2/26/2010 12.77690
3/1/2010 12.74540
3/2/2010 12.72590
3/3/2010 12.69000
3/4/2010 12.71820
3/5/2010 12.65570
3/8/2010 12.66180
3/9/2010 12.65740
3/10/2010 12.60280
3/11/2010 12.61920
3/12/2010 12.55270
3/16/2010 12.52540
3/17/2010 12.48920
3/18/2010 12.47290
3/19/2010 12.57960
3/22/2010 12.60520
3/23/2010 12.52840
3/24/2010 12.53810
3/25/2010 12.50090
3/26/2010 12.54260
3/29/2010 12.46400
3/30/2010 12.41450
3/31/2010 12.33060
4/5/2010 12.26580
4/6/2010 12.24540
 4/7/2010 12.22180
4/8/2010 12.24880
4/9/2010 12.19970
4/12/2010 12.18080
4/13/2010 12.21220
4/14/2010 12.18270
4/15/2010 12.19340
4/16/2010 12.23560
4/19/2010 12.30640
4/20/2010 12.21880
4/21/2010 12.18960
4/22/2010 12.24050
4/23/2010 12.19730
4/26/2010 12.15750
4/27/2010 12.22780
4/28/2010 12.36980
4/29/2010 12.24650
4/30/2010 12.26260
5/3/2010 12.26050
5/4/2010 12.42880
5/5/2010 12.66350
5/6/2010 12.78840
5/7/2010 12.91790
5/10/2010 12.52970
5/11/2010 12.50250
5/12/2010 12.43510
5/13/2010 12.35010
5/14/2010 12.56840
5/17/2010 12.69260
5/18/2010 12.57870
5/19/2010 12.91380
5/20/2010 13.14120
5/21/2010 13.03380
5/24/2010 12.95880
5/25/2010 13.18190
5/26/2010 12.99550
5/27/2010 12.88460
5/28/2010 12.85890
5/31/2010 12.91460
6/1/2010 12.90120
6/2/2010 12.86250
6/3/2010 12.76440
6/4/2010 12.86030
 6/7/2010 12.92020
6/8/2010 12.92880
6/9/2010 12.80930
6/10/2010 12.74410
6/11/2010 12.67480
6/14/2010 12.59740
6/15/2010 12.60010
6/16/2010 12.58780
6/17/2010 12.59250
6/18/2010 12.54000
6/21/2010 12.46040
6/22/2010 12.52460
6/23/2010 12.69840
6/24/2010 12.71410
6/25/2010 12.70420
6/28/2010 12.65670
6/29/2010 12.83940
6/30/2010 12.84410
7/1/2010 13.03250
7/2/2010 13.05900
7/5/2010 13.09530
7/6/2010 12.93080
7/7/2010 12.89750
7/8/2010 12.82320
7/9/2010 12.78590
7/12/2010 12.82330
7/13/2010 12.71400
7/14/2010 12.71760
7/15/2010 12.77950
7/16/2010 12.90130
7/19/2010 12.91620
7/20/2010 12.85490
7/21/2010 12.77980
7/22/2010 12.75600
7/23/2010 12.77490
7/26/2010 12.69750
7/27/2010 12.64690
7/28/2010 12.67980
7/29/2010 12.70380
7/30/2010 12.64550
8/2/2010 12.57280
8/3/2010 12.60480
8/4/2010 12.55350
 8/5/2010 12.53670
8/6/2010 12.65500
8/9/2010 12.64610
8/10/2010 12.69270
8/11/2010 12.74320
8/12/2010 12.72580
8/13/2010 12.72560
8/16/2010 12.64580
8/17/2010 12.59440
8/18/2010 12.60730
8/19/2010 12.72260
8/20/2010 12.76830
8/23/2010 12.84920
8/24/2010 12.93600
8/25/2010 13.04530
8/26/2010 12.98400
8/27/2010 13.01480
8/30/2010 13.13670
8/31/2010 13.16760
9/1/2010 13.05380
9/2/2010 13.05500
9/3/2010 12.95260
9/6/2010 12.93950
9/7/2010 13.05660
9/8/2010 13.00340
9/9/2010 12.98530
9/10/2010 12.96160
9/13/2010 12.87290
9/14/2010 12.83550
9/15/2010 12.77930
9/20/2010 12.76230
9/21/2010 12.75940
9/22/2010 12.68860
9/23/2010 12.64220
9/24/2010 12.54910
9/27/2010 12.51680
9/28/2010 12.50110
9/29/2010 12.48010
9/30/2010 12.59980
10/1/2010 12.55110
10/4/2010 12.58750
10/5/2010 12.50990
10/6/2010 12.47790
 10/7/2010 12.52770
10/8/2010 12.48950
10/11/2010 12.42240
10/12/2010 12.43200
10/13/2010 12.36830
10/14/2010 12.41010
10/15/2010 12.42760
10/18/2010 12.41350
10/19/2010 12.48180
10/20/2010 12.41170
10/21/2010 12.36130
10/22/2010 12.38770
10/25/2010 12.32050
10/26/2010 12.38590
10/27/2010 12.47760
10/28/2010 12.40230
10/29/2010 12.33870
11/1/2010 12.34520
11/3/2010 12.30410
11/4/2010 12.23810
11/5/2010 12.20550
11/8/2010 12.24830
11/9/2010 12.20680
11/10/2010 12.27140
11/11/2010 12.25960
11/12/2010 12.26260
11/16/2010 12.43530
11/17/2010 12.37830
11/18/2010 12.29240
11/19/2010 12.29960
11/22/2010 12.30900
11/23/2010 12.45770
11/24/2010 12.39120
11/25/2010 12.36690
11/26/2010 12.48900
11/29/2010 12.55380
11/30/2010 12.46640
12/1/2010 12.39670
12/2/2010 12.35460
12/3/2010 12.35970
12/6/2010 12.38840
12/7/2010 12.41230
12/8/2010 12.44840
 12/9/2010 12.45860
12/10/2010 12.46170
12/13/2010 12.38690
12/14/2010 12.37030
12/15/2010 12.39630
12/16/2010 12.45050
12/17/2010 12.43450
12/20/2010 12.41700
12/21/2010 12.37200
12/22/2010 12.33790
12/23/2010 12.33320
12/24/2010 12.34590
12/27/2010 12.36530
12/28/2010 12.35670
12/29/2010 12.35710
12/30/2010 12.38170
12/31/2010 12.34960
1/3/2011 12.25740
1/4/2011 12.26190
1/5/2011 12.20640
1/6/2011 12.22560
1/7/2011 12.23690
1/10/2011 12.25420
1/11/2011 12.19070
1/12/2011 12.07570
1/13/2011 12.10280
1/14/2011 12.08710
1/17/2011 12.02990
1/18/2011 12.02610
1/19/2011 12.07440
1/20/2011 12.09030
1/21/2011 12.04820
1/24/2011 12.05160
1/25/2011 12.08560
1/26/2011 12.04080
1/27/2011 12.02390
1/28/2011 12.12140
1/31/2011 12.15190
2/1/2011 12.01700
2/2/2011 12.01900
2/3/2011 12.04990
2/4/2011 11.99460
2/8/2011 11.99370
 2/9/2011 12.04320
2/10/2011 12.09370
2/11/2011 12.06350
2/14/2011 12.04610
2/15/2011 12.11400
2/16/2011 12.09570
2/17/2011 12.04830
2/18/2011 12.01720
2/21/2011 12.05580
2/22/2011 12.09170
2/23/2011 12.19000
2/24/2011 12.17300
2/25/2011 12.12350
2/28/2011 12.10620
3/1/2011 12.09290
3/2/2011 12.09810
3/3/2011 12.03680
3/4/2011 12.00640
3/7/2011 12.01700
3/8/2011 12.02540
3/9/2011 11.96800
3/10/2011 11.97550
3/11/2011 11.94410
3/14/2011 11.92350
3/15/2011 12.01710
3/16/2011 12.07100
3/17/2011 12.09250
3/18/2011 12.06150
3/22/2011 11.98850
3/23/2011 12.00040
3/24/2011 11.95550
3/25/2011 11.95050
3/28/2011 11.95900
3/29/2011 11.96780
3/30/2011 11.92190
3/31/2011 11.90840
4/1/2011 11.84120
4/4/2011 11.85330
4/5/2011 11.83220
4/6/2011 11.78360
4/7/2011 11.79310
4/8/2011 11.74210
4/11/2011 11.74470
4/12/2011 11.82660
4/13/2011 11.79070
4/14/2011 11.76790
4/15/2011 11.70900
4/18/2011 11.77830
4/19/2011 11.69250
4/20/2011 11.62520
4/25/2011 11.62940
4/26/2011 11.58240
4/27/2011 11.58680
4/28/2011 11.54280
4/29/2011 11.52780
5/2/2011 11.50230
5/3/2011 11.56650
5/4/2011 11.62140
5/5/2011 11.69340
5/6/2011 11.60900
5/9/2011 11.64100
5/10/2011 11.60090
5/11/2011 11.60750
5/12/2011 11.66560
5/13/2011 11.72190
5/16/2011 11.70940
5/17/2011 11.76600
5/18/2011 11.72340
5/19/2011 11.65880
5/20/2011 11.64670
5/23/2011 11.72920
5/24/2011 11.70320
5/25/2011 11.69480
5/26/2011 11.69560
5/27/2011 11.62560
5/30/2011 11.61230
5/31/2011 11.57800
6/1/2011 11.62770
6/2/2011 11.67390
6/3/2011 11.66890
6/6/2011 11.69830
6/7/2011 11.71960
6/8/2011 11.80010
6/9/2011 11.79650
6/10/2011 11.86860
6/13/2011 11.86800
6/14/2011 11.79820
6/15/2011 11.87510
6/16/2011 11.95910
6/17/2011 11.90060
6/20/2011 11.89160
6/21/2011 11.81300
6/22/2011 11.77890
6/23/2011 11.88160
6/24/2011 11.88220
6/27/2011 11.89380
6/28/2011 11.83890
6/29/2011 11.77480
6/30/2011 11.72300
7/1/2011 11.63680
7/4/2011 11.59250
7/5/2011 11.61940
7/6/2011 11.65440
7/7/2011 11.57380
7/8/2011 11.63370
7/11/2011 11.72740
7/12/2011 11.78670
7/13/2011 11.71700
7/14/2011 11.70100
7/15/2011 11.71780
7/18/2011 11.78770
7/19/2011 11.69640
7/20/2011 11.66380
7/21/2011 11.61740
7/22/2011 11.63930
7/25/2011 11.66410
7/26/2011 11.61720
7/27/2011 11.65270
7/28/2011 11.68210
7/29/2011 11.74250
8/1/2011 11.75140
8/2/2011 11.76570
8/3/2011 11.84730
8/4/2011 11.95230
8/5/2011 11.97940
8/8/2011 12.18450
8/9/2011 12.37100
8/10/2011 12.32210
8/11/2011 12.38990
 8/12/2011 12.29920
8/15/2011 12.24240
8/16/2011 12.26310
8/17/2011 12.16510
8/18/2011 12.36850
8/19/2011 12.23860
8/22/2011 12.29480
8/23/2011 12.33570
8/24/2011 12.39520
8/25/2011 12.42590
8/26/2011 12.49530
8/29/2011 12.41480
8/30/2011 12.48380
8/31/2011 12.34800
9/1/2011 12.26160
9/2/2011 12.37350
9/5/2011 12.53530
9/6/2011 12.51020
9/7/2011 12.46610
9/8/2011 12.49560
9/9/2011 12.63240
9/12/2011 12.76870
9/13/2011 12.89940
9/14/2011 12.96460
9/15/2011 12.91270
9/19/2011 13.18600
9/20/2011 13.16690
9/21/2011 13.40450
9/22/2011 13.89170
9/23/2011 13.77880
9/26/2011 13.66770
9/27/2011 13.34140
9/28/2011 13.42170
9/29/2011 13.45670
9/30/2011 13.79940
10/3/2011 13.89670
10/4/2011 13.97140
10/5/2011 13.66750
10/6/2011 13.53410
10/7/2011 13.31430
10/10/2011 13.27510
10/11/2011 13.32660
10/12/2011 13.22130
10/13/2011 13.36470
10/14/2011 13.27110
10/17/2011 13.29520
10/18/2011 13.44450
10/19/2011 13.37330
10/20/2011 13.66280
10/21/2011 13.59960
10/24/2011 13.48890
10/25/2011 13.44590
10/26/2011 13.49140
10/27/2011 13.19730
10/28/2011 13.11320
10/31/2011 13.18020
11/1/2011 13.62820
11/3/2011 13.41280
11/4/2011 13.46980
11/7/2011 13.45040
11/8/2011 13.38520
11/9/2011 13.52520
11/10/2011 13.56220
11/11/2011 13.41650
11/14/2011 13.51220
11/15/2011 13.56720
11/16/2011 13.58470
11/17/2011 13.63750
11/18/2011 13.70330
11/22/2011 13.98120
11/23/2011 14.12910
11/24/2011 14.17780
11/25/2011 14.24430
11/28/2011 14.03440
11/29/2011 13.95380
11/30/2011 13.61000
12/1/2011 13.58940
12/2/2011 13.54880
12/5/2011 13.47860
12/6/2011 13.49700
12/7/2011 13.51180
12/8/2011 13.65690
12/9/2011 13.64060
12/13/2011 13.77140
12/14/2011 13.94120
12/15/2011 13.82300
12/16/2011 13.84500
12/19/2011 13.85420
12/20/2011 13.77200
12/21/2011 13.85260
12/22/2011 13.81690
12/23/2011 13.81630
12/26/2011 13.84830
12/27/2011 13.96580
12/28/2011 13.99040
12/29/2011 13.97870
12/30/2011 13.94760
1/2/2012 13.93420
1/3/2012 13.68820
1/4/2012 13.71440
1/5/2012 13.74090
1/6/2012 13.72280
1/9/2012 13.74370
1/10/2012 13.62040
1/11/2012 13.65920
1/12/2012 13.59820
1/13/2012 13.62630
1/16/2012 13.54010
1/17/2012 13.46210
1/18/2012 13.32670
1/19/2012 13.25160
1/20/2012 13.22400
1/23/2012 13.13830
1/24/2012 13.17120
1/25/2012 13.13190
1/26/2012 12.93250
1/27/2012 12.95040
1/30/2012 13.00630
1/31/2012 13.00770
2/1/2012 12.89000
2/2/2012 12.80380
2/3/2012 12.71200
2/7/2012 12.64720
2/8/2012 12.68330
2/9/2012 12.72000
2/10/2012 12.78570
2/13/2012 12.73920
2/14/2012 12.77530
2/15/2012 12.76580
2/16/2012 12.88220
2/17/2012 12.78560
2/20/2012 12.67930
2/21/2012 12.74080
2/22/2012 12.82960
2/23/2012 12.82940
2/24/2012 12.86750
2/27/2012 12.87790
2/28/2012 12.85750
2/29/2012 12.78910
3/1/2012 12.77640
3/2/2012 12.77230
3/5/2012 12.83390
3/6/2012 12.97770
3/7/2012 12.94690
3/8/2012 12.78400
3/9/2012 12.62990
3/12/2012 12.71500
3/13/2012 12.63360
3/14/2012 12.67190
3/15/2012 12.65910
3/16/2012 12.66450
3/20/2012 12.69350
3/21/2012 12.68330
3/22/2012 12.83300
3/23/2012 12.80350
3/26/2012 12.67950
3/27/2012 12.67060
3/28/2012 12.80390
3/29/2012 12.84890
3/30/2012 12.80930
4/2/2012 12.76910
4/3/2012 12.73170
4/4/2012 12.81550
4/9/2012 12.99020
4/10/2012 13.15680
4/11/2012 13.13240
4/12/2012 13.07360
4/13/2012 13.14580
4/16/2012 13.21680
4/17/2012 13.08160
4/18/2012 13.13220
4/19/2012 13.22880
4/20/2012 13.11710
4/23/2012 13.20870
4/24/2012 13.13920
4/25/2012 13.16670
4/26/2012 13.20930
4/27/2012 13.01410
4/30/2012 12.99420
5/2/2012 12.96290
5/3/2012 12.97250
5/4/2012 13.13440
5/7/2012 13.16590
5/8/2012 13.33740
5/9/2012 13.51500
5/10/2012 13.44700
5/11/2012 13.49290
5/14/2012 13.67390
5/15/2012 13.73020
5/16/2012 13.77470
5/17/2012 13.79940
5/18/2012 13.78090
5/21/2012 13.79350
5/22/2012 13.72030
5/23/2012 14.03350
5/24/2012 14.00400
5/25/2012 14.01560
5/28/2012 13.94390
5/29/2012 13.91690
5/30/2012 14.07490
5/31/2012 14.30470
6/1/2012 14.39490
6/4/2012 14.24430
6/5/2012 14.23190
6/6/2012 14.11160
6/7/2012 13.93550
6/8/2012 14.03510
6/11/2012 13.96250
6/12/2012 14.00600
6/13/2012 13.97000
6/14/2012 13.99740
6/15/2012 13.91150
6/18/2012 13.91540
6/19/2012 13.70330
6/20/2012 13.72570
6/21/2012 13.76680
6/22/2012 13.84900
6/25/2012 13.95420
6/26/2012 13.86160
6/27/2012 13.66520
6/28/2012 13.65300
6/29/2012 13.40840
7/2/2012 13.39700
7/3/2012 13.31740
7/4/2012 13.36170
7/5/2012 13.35080
7/6/2012 13.49250
7/9/2012 13.45330
7/10/2012 13.29240
7/11/2012 13.32410
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