TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES - (212066A_1144)

Task 1 Decisions under uncertainty

student
Jhon alexander pacheco

tutor
NURY YASMIN MORENO

cluster:
212066_1

date
10/9/2022
Table 1. Optimal Solution for production plant location

Increase In Demand
Moderate High High

Alternatives
Mexico City 101 401 651
New York 141 351 451
Barcelona 151 351 451
Buenos Aires 201 501 1001

Laplace criterion
Alternatives
Mexico City 101 401 651 384.3333333333
New York 141 351 451 314.3333333333
Barcelona 151 571 1001 574.3333333333
Buenos Aires 201 501 951 551

Alternatives
Mexico City 33.6666667 133.666667 217 384.3333333333
New York 47 117 150.333333 314.3333333333
Barcelona 50.3333333 190.333333 333.666667 574.3333333333
Buenos Aires 67 167 317 551

the best alternative in this case is barcelona

Hurwicz alfa: 0,7

Alternatives optimistic:0,7
Mexico City 101 401 651 455.7
New York 141 351 451 315.7
Barcelona 151 571 1001 700.7
Buenos Aires 201 501 951 665.7

the best alternative in this case is barcelona

 Savage
Alternatives 1 2 3
Mexico City 101 401 651
New York 141 351 451
Barcelona 151 571 1001
Buenos Aires 201 501 951

Savage
Alternatives
Mexico City 100 170 350 350
New York 60 220 550 550
Barcelona 50 0 0 50
Buenos Aires 0 70 50 70

según el criterio de savage es valor que gnera menos puntos negativos es barcelona

According to the results of all the criteria, the best option is Barcelona and the pessimistic criteria
 pessimistic
Alternatives
Mexico City 101 401 651 101
New York 141 351 451 141
Barcelona 151 571 1001 151
Buenos Aires 201 501 951 201

the worst alternative buenos airess

optimistic
Alternatives
Mexico City 101 401 651 651
New York 141 351 451 451
Barcelona 151 571 1001 1001
Buenos Aires 201 501 951 950

the best alternative is barcelona

pessimistic:0,30 total op+pes

30.3 486
42.3 358
45.3 746
60.3 726
negativos es barcelona

Barcelona and the pessimistic criteria alone have Buenos Aires as the worst option.
 Table 1. Optimal Solution for production plant location
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72
production process B 50 54 63
production process C 39 50 57
production process D 28 34 46

Laplace
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72 63
production process B 50 54 63 55.6666666667
production process C 39 50 57 48.6666666667
production process D 28 34 46 36

la mejor alternativa es el producto c

pessimistic
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72 51
production process B 50 54 63 50
production process C 39 50 57 39
production process D 28 34 46 28

the worst alternative is product D

optimistic
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72 72
production process B 50 54 63 63
production process C 39 50 57 57
production process D 28 34 46 46

the best alternative is product A

Hurwicz alfa: 0,7

Increase In Demand optimistic:0,7
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72 50.4
production process B 50 54 63 44.1
production process C 39 50 57 39.9
production process D 28 34 46 32.2

for this criterion the best option is product A

savage
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 51 66 72
production process B 50 54 63
production process C 39 50 57
production process D 28 34 46

savage
Increase In Demand
Alternatives Low average High
production process A 0 0 0 0
production process B 1 12 9 12
production process C 12 16 15 16
production process D 23 32 26 32

For this criteria, the product that generates negative points or sadness is A

If the company wishes to expand production, it must choose

the product since, according to the applied criteria, it
promises better results since the optimistic criterion
registers that product A is more in line with what the
company wants, as well as the product which registers the
most pessimistic value.
pessimistic: 0,30 total
 15.3 65.7
15 59.1
11.7 51.6
8.4 40.6

ts or sadness is A
 maximin y minmax

Table 3. Optimal Solution for marketing plans

Company 2 maximin
a b c
a 3 4 2 2
Company 1
b 2 5 1 1
c 4 -1 0 -1
minimax 4 5 2
2

the result corresponds to an equilibrium point since the results of the maximin and the minimax
correspond to the same number. so the exercise is solved

zero suma
Company 2
a b c
a 3 4 2
b 2 5 1
c 4 -1 0
4 5 2

estategias 1 2 3
Prababilidad1 1 1 3 4 2
Prababilidad2 0 2 2 5 1
Prababilidad3 0 3 4 -1 0
Company 1

suma probabilidad 1 Ve 3 4 2

this company must work with strategy A to maximize profits MaxZ=V

suma minimo
suma
Probability 1 2 3 probabilidad
0 0 1 1
company 2 valor esperado
Company 1
3 4 2 2
2 5 1 1
4 -1 0 0
 Minz= V 2

this company must work with strategy c to minimize losses

maximin

2
 Promotion in cali
Promotion in cali -1
compamy 2-C2 Promotion in bogota 3

company 1 -C1
estrategia
promotion cali
Promotion in cali -1
company 2-c2
Promotion in bogota 3
maximos 3
criterion
Minimax 2

There is no chair strategy, therefore it is a game of mixed str

probalidad dela estrategia de

cali y bogata
X1
X2
Donde
X1+X2=1;X2=1-+X1

estragegia
empresa 2 PE.Company1
cali PE(cali)=-1X1+3X2 "-1(x1)+3(1-X1) "-1X1+3-3X1 "-4X1+3
bogota PE(bogota)=1X1+2X2 "1(X1)+2(1-X1) "1X1+2-2X1 "-1X1+2
medellin PE(medellin)=2X1-6X2 "2(X1)-6(1-X1) "2X1-6+6X1 "-8X1-6
 company 1 -C1
Promotion in cali Promotion in bogota promotion in medellin
-1 1 2
3 2 -2

company 1 -C1
criterion
promotion bogata Promotion medellin Minimos maximin
1 2 -1
-1
2 -2 -2
2 2

therefore it is a game of mixed strategies.

Probabilidad de las
estrategias de cali,bota
y medellin
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y1+y2+Y3=1

X=0 X=1
3 -1
2 1
-6 -14

4
2
0
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2
-2
-4
-6
 4
2
0
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
-16
 Amalia
E1 E2
E1 12 -13
Jhony E2 0 20
E3 -15 10

Amalia
E1 E2 minimo Minimax
E1 12 -13 -13
Jhony E2 0 20 0 0
E3 -15 10 -15
Maximo 12 20
Maximin 12

X1 Y1
X2 Y2
X3 y3

strategy 1 strategy 2 strategy 3

"12y1-13y2 "y1+20Y2 "-15y1+10Y2
"12y1-13(1-y1) "y1+20(1-Y1) "-15y1+10(1-y1)
"12Y1-13-13y1 "Y1+20-20Y1 "-25y+10
"25y1-13 "-19Y1+20

strategies
used by
jhony X(0) X(1)
E1 "25y1-13 -13 12
E2 "-19Y1+20 20 1
E3 "-25y+10 10 -15

25
20
20

15 12
10
10
Row 36
Row 37
Title

5
1 Row 38
 25
20
20

15 12
10
10
Row 36
Row 37
Axis Title

5
1 Row 38
0
0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2
-5

-10 -13
-15
-15

-20 Axis Title

interception point strategies

1y2
25y1-13 (=) -19Y1+20
28y1+19y1 (=) 20+13
47y1 (=) 33
y1 (=) 33/47
y1 (=) 0.75

confirm the value of the game

Expected value by
amalia 25y1-13
5.75
-19Y1+20
5.75

the expected value of the game is 5.75,

therefore amalia must work with strategies
one two
65
 Reference

Guillermo Owen. (2013). Game Theory. (pp. 13-17) . Emerald Group Publishing Limited. https://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/

López, A. (2022). Decisions Under Uncertainty [OVI]. https://repository.unad.edu.co/handle/10596/49389

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 340-346). Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd. http://bibliotecav

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 384-394). Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd. http://bibliotecav
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