ENTREGA 3 FINAL - GRUPO 4 - Fin

Valor
Concepto Cantidad Valor total

unitario
Inscripción y cámara de comercio 1 $300,000 $300,000
Computador 1 $1,200,000.00 $1,200,000.00
Plotter de corte cameo 4 1 $1,700,000.00 $1,700,000.00
Plotter de corte cameo 3 1 $ 13,000,000 $ 1,300,000
Impresora 2 $ 800 $ 800
Aire acondicionado 1 $ 1,100,000 $ 1,100,000
Inflador de globos 1 $ 300 $ 300
Estantería 1 $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000
Escritorio 1 $ 300 $ 300
Nevera para flores 1 $ 500 $ 500
Equipos de celular 2 $ 900,000 $ 1,800,000
Silla ergonómica para recepción 1 $ 500,000 $ 500,000
Smart tv 1 $ 1,500,000 $ 1,500,000
Circuito de cámaras de seguridad 1 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000
Archivador 1 $ 630,000 $ 2,000,000
Papelería y otros 1 $ 300,000 $ 2,000,000
Página web 1 $ 2,000,000 $ 2,000,000
Guillotina 1 $ 500,000 $ 2,000,000
Selladora eléctrica 1 $ 250,000 $ 2,000,000
Inversión Total $ 22,101,900
Valor residual
(Estimación
Depreciación
del Valor de Vida útil
durante la Vida
venta luego (años)
$300,000 N/A Útil
$0
de la Vida
$400.00
Útil) $ 5 $ 1,199,600
$1,200,000.00 $ 3 $ 500,000
$ 800 $ 5 $ 1,299,200
$ 300 $ 5 $ 500
$ 500 $ 5 $ 1,099,500
$ 80 $ 5 $ 220
$ 400 $ 5 $ 999,600
$ 100 $ 5 $ 200
$ 200 $ 8 $ 300
$ 300,000 $ 8 $ 1,500,000
$ 100,000 $ 5 $ 400,000
$ 500,000 $ 5 $ 1,000,000
$ 700,000 $ 8 $ 1,300,000
$ 700,000 $ 10 $ 1,300,000
$ 700,000 $ 1 $ 1,300,000
$ 700,000 $ 5 $ 1,300,000
$ 700,000 $ 5 $ 1,300,000
$ 700,000 $ 5 $ 1,300,000
$ 6,302,780 $ 15,799,120
Aplican tanto para
productos o
Costos variables:Dependen de la estimación del nivel de las
servicios
ventas (materias primas, insumos, pagos a
terceros, mano de obra al destajo, etc.)
Son los que se pagan mes a mes, tenga
Costos fijos: ventas o no (arriendo, servicios públicos,
nómina fija, mantenimientos, etc.)
Costos variables (Producto) Caja de flores
Costo por
Materias primas / Insumos /
unidad (kilos,
Procesos externos
litros, etc.)
Caja de madera $ 24,000

Flores $ 220
Oasis $ 1,395
Poratarjeta $ 500
Tarjeta $ 2,500
Papel aluminio $ 3,000
Relleno de coco $ 18,571
Costos variables (Producto) Bouquet de globos
Costo por
unidad (kilos,
Procesos externos
litros, etc.)
Globos de chrome $ 500
Globos fashion $ 300
Globos metálicos $ 3,000
Pegante especial $ 80,000
Globos mil figuras $ 300
Globos con helio $ 5,500
Cinta $ 200
Costos variables Gift Basket personalizada

Costo por
unidad (kilos,
Procesos externos
litros, etc.)
Caja cartón industrial $ 3,000
Papelería alto gramaje $ 28,000
Cinta doble faz $ 36,000
Apliques $ 20,000
Papas pringles $ 3,000
Esferas acrílicas $ 1,800
Chocolatinas $ 1,500
Maní $ 3,900
Galletas $ 2,000
Envases de vidrio $ 2,000
Producto) Caja de flores Costos variables
Cantidad
Valor Contrataciones / Insumos /
necesaria Valor Anual
Mensual Procesos externos
Mensual
8 $ 192,000 $ 2,304,000
2 $ 440 $ 5,280
30 $ 41,850 $ 502,200
10 $ 5,000 $ 60,000
10 $ 25,000 $ 300,000
3 $ 9,000 $ 108,000
2 $ 37,142 $ 445,704
Costo
variable $ 310,432 $ 3,725,184
total
oducto) Bouquet de globos
Cantidad
Valor
Mensual
Mensual
200 $ 100,000 $ 1,200,000
150 $ 45,000 $ 540,000
30 $ 90,000 $ 1,080,000
1 $ 80,000 $ 960,000
90 $ 27,000 $ 324,000
50 $ 275,000 $ 3,300,000
50 $ 10,000 $ 120,000
$ - $ -
Costo
variable $ 627,000 $ 7,524,000
total
Gift Basket personalizada

Cantidad
Valor
Mensual
Mensual
80 $ 240,000 $ 2,880,000
2 $ 56,000 $ 672,000
1 $ 36,000 $ 432,000
1 $ 20,000 $ 240,000
80 $ 240,000 $ 2,880,000
80 $ 144,000 $ 1,728,000
80 $ 120,000 $ 1,440,000
80 $ 312,000 $ 3,744,000
80 $ 160,000 $ 1,920,000
80 $ 160,000 $ 1,920,000
Costo
variable $ 1,488,000 $ 17,856,000
total
Costos variables (Servicios)
Costo por unidad

Cantidad
(Salarios, Valor
contratación, Mensual
Mensual
etc.)
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
$ - $ -
Costo
variable $ - $ -
total
Costos fijos
Concepto (Incluya cantidad) Valor mes Valor año
Energía electrica $ 250,000 $ 3,000,000
Planes de celulares $ 120,000 $ 1,440,000
Plan de wifi $ 70,000 $ 840,000
Alquiler del local $ 450,000 $ 5,400,000
Suscripción diseño $ 18,000 $ 216,000
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
Costos fijos totales $ 10,896,000
Gastos
Concepto (Incluya cantidad) Valor mes Valor año
Sueldo gerente $ 3,400,000 $ 40,800,000
Sueldo secretaria $ 1,128,413 $ 13,540,956
Sueldo diseñador gráfico $ 3,500,000 $ 42,000,000
Honorarios community manager $ 2,000,000 $ 24,000,000
Sueldo auxiliar 1 $ 1,500,000 $ 18,000,000
Sueldo auxiliar 2 $ 1,500,000 $ 18,000,000
Honorarios del contador $ 2,000,000 $ 24,000,000
Insumos varios para cafetería $ 100,000 $ 1,200,000
Implementos de aseo $ 100,000 $ 1,200,000
Implementos mano de obra $ 80,000 $ 960,000
Transporte mercancía $ 300,000 $ 3,600,000
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
Gastos totales $ 187,300,956
GERENTE :
SUELDO MENSUAL : 3,400,000
DETALLE % Vr. HORA 1
Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 14,166.67 8
Recargo nocturno 0.35% 4,958.33
Extras Diurnas 125% 17,708.33
Extras Noctur. 175% 24,791.67
Recargo festivo diurno 75% 10,625.00
Festivas Nocturnas 0.35% 939.00
Extras Fest. Diurnas 200% 28,333.33
Extras Fest. Nocturnas 250% 35,416.67
Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
CESANTIA 8.33% 275,407

PRIMA 8.33% 275,407
INT/CESANTIA 1.00% 33,062
VACACIONES 4.17% 137,869
SECRETARIA :

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
Subsidio Transporte Días 15 3,548.40
CESANTIA 8.33% 98,431

PRIMA 8.33% 98,431
DISEÑADOR GRÁFICO
SUELDO MENSUAL 3,500,000

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
Subsidio Transporte Días 15 3,548.40
TOTAL DEVENGADO
CESANTIA 8.33% 291,550
PRIMA 8.33% 291,550
CONTADOR

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
CESANTIA 8.33% 249,900

PRIMA 8.33% 249,900
COMMUNITY MANAGER

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
CESANTIA 8.33% 208,550

PRIMA 8.33% 208,550
AUXILIAR 1

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
CESANTIA 8.33% 83,300
PRIMA 8.33% 83,300
AUXILIAR 2

Otros Ingresos
SUB - TOTAL
CESANTIA 8.33% 83,300

PRIMA 8.33% 83,300
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Periodo NOMINA DEL 1 DE ABRIL AL 15 DE ABRIL
GERENTE GENERAL
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO
Periodo DEL 1 DE ENERO AL 15 DE ENERO

SECETRARIA
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO
DEL
Periodo
1 DE ENERO AL 15 DE ENERO
LIDER Y DESAROLLADOR FRONTEND
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-

GERENTE GENERAL
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO

GERENTE GENERAL
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO

GERENTE GENERAL
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO

GERENTE GENERAL
10 11 12 13 14 15 No. H.
8 8 8 8 8 8 240
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
TOTAL DEVENGADO
RIL
TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

3,400,000 SALUD 136,000
- PENSION 136,000
-
- PRESTAMO
-
-
-
-
3,400,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 272,000

-
3,400,000 NETO A PAGAR 3,128,000

1,128,413 SALUD 45,137
- PENSIÓN 45,137
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,128,413 TOTAL DEDUCC 90,273

53,226
1,181,639 NETO A PAGAR 1,091,366

3,500,000 SALUD 140,000
- PENSION 140,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
3,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 280,000

53,226
3,553,226 NETO A PAGAR 3,273,226
RIL

2,000,000 SALUD 80,000
- PENSION 80,000
-
- PRESTAMO
-
-
-
-
2,000,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 160,000

-
2,000,000 NETO A PAGAR 1,840,000
RIL

2,000,000 SALUD 80,000
- PENSION 80,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
2,000,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 160,000

-
2,000,000 NETO A PAGAR 1,840,000
RIL

1,500,000 SALUD 60,000
- PENSION 60,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 120,000

-
1,500,000 NETO A PAGAR 1,380,000
RIL

1,500,000 SALUD 60,000
- PENSION 60,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
1,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 120,000

-
1,500,000 NETO A PAGAR 1,380,000
PREUSUPU
VISITAS VISTAS CANTIDAD
ESTO
VENTAS PUNTO REDES FECHAS
MARKETIN
(Variable de FISICO SOCIALES ESPECIALE TIEMPO
G DIGITAL
efecto) (Variable (Variable S (Variable
(Variable
causal 1) causal 2) causal 3)
causal 4)
6,985,000 80 50 3 0 TRIMESTRE 1
11,546,000 200 70 4 0 TRIMESTRE 2
7,654,300 197 80 1 0 TRIMESTRE 3
8,476,000 184 80 1 0 TRIMESTRE 4
8,546,000 50 150 3 0 TRIMESTRE 1
18,192,500 30 500 4 500,000 TRIMESTRE 2
8,753,000 35 684 1 500,000 TRIMESTRE 3
7,987,000 30 736 1 250,000 TRIMESTRE 4
5,300,000 167 874 3 350,000 TRIMESTRE 1
8,900,000 215 895 4 350,000 TRIMESTRE 2
7,800,000 195 728 1 200,000 TRIMESTRE 3

6,905,000 85 735 1 150,000 TRIMESTRE 4
7,452,000 67 698 3 150,000 TRIMESTRE 1

Estado de
emergencia
sanitaria en
Colombia:
hasta cuándo
se extiende,
qué se puede
Información Macro Entorno Cita- Fuente
hacer y
restricciones
. Diario AS.
https://colom
bia.as.com/a
ctualidad/est
ado-de-
Durante el 2019 y a pesar de los desafios del entorno en el
sector minero colombiano, Cerrejón exportó 26,3 millones de emergencia-
Editorial La República S.A.S. (2020, 15 junio). “Precio del carb
toneladas de carón térmico, Indica Claudia Bejarano a LR. sanitaria-en-
colombia-
hasta-
cuando-se-
P. (2020, 24
extiende-
agosto).
que-se-
Estos son los
puede-hacer-
En marzo de 2020, con la detección de los primeros casos de sectores con
COVID-19 en el país, se declaró por primera vez la y-
mejor
emergencia sanitaria y desde entonces se ha prorrogado en restricciones
desempeño
ciclos de 3 a 6 meses. -n/
durante la
pandemia.
De acuerdo con María Fernanda Quiñónez, presidenta de la Portafolio.co
Cámara Colombiana de Comercio Electrónico hoy en día el e- . Recuperado
commerce está creciendo cada semana (11%) más de lo que
1 de mayo de
se registró en todo el 2019. “Esto representa un avance muy Cerrejon.
positivo en el impulso del país, que venía con un rezago muy 2022, de
relevante, ya que el año pasado el comercio electrónico estaba (2021,
https://www.
centrado solo en el 8% de la población colombiana”. marzo).
portafolio.co
Informe de
/economia/es
Sostenibilida
tos-son-los-
El 23 de marzo, Cerrejón anunció que reducía sus operaciones d 2020
sectores-con-
para poder evaluar la situación generada por la pandemia y la Cerrejon.
mejor-
cuarentena decretada por el Gobierno nacional, de forma que https://www.
desempeno-
pudieran adoptarse las medidas y protocolos que nos cerrejon.com
durante-la-
ayudaran a reducir el riesgo de contagio. /sites/default/
pandemia-
files/2021-
543949
08/informe-
Cerrejón calcula que por cada día de huelga que transcurrió, la de-
economía de La Guajira y el país dejaba de recibir ingresos sostenibilida
por 7.000 millones de pesos en conceptos como impuestos,
regalías y salarios, entre otros, lo que indica que los 91 días de d-2020.pdf
https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/empresas/cuanto-costo-la
cese de actividades por el conflicto laboral tuvieron un costo en
ingresos por 637.000 millones de pesos.
Aunque el mes de las madres coincidió con la jornada de

protestas sociales y el tercer pico de la pandemia, algunos
https://www.larepublica.co/economia/ventas-en-linea-durante-l
sectores
La Oficinadel
decomercio
Estudiostuvieron un buen
Económicos desempeño
del Ministerio degracias a
Comercio,
las compras
Industria en línea(MinCIT) reportó que, durante el mes de
y Turismo
julio de 2021, el comercio al por menor creció en 26,9 %, frente
a igual periodo del 2020, y un 11,4 % en comparación con el
mismo mes de 2019, es decir, antes de pandemia de COVID-
M. (2021a, septiembre 16). Comercio al por menor registra aum
19.
El crecimiento en el comercio al por menor se registró en todas

las regiones evaluadas por el Departamento Nacional de
Estadística (DANE)
La Oficina de Estudios Económicos del Ministerio de Comercio, R. (2022, 1
Industria y Turismo (MinCIT) reportó que, durante el mes de abril).
julio de 2021, el comercio al por menor creció en 26,9 %, frente Primer
a igual periodo del 2020, y un 11,4 % en comparación con el trimestre de
mismo mes de 2019, es decir, antes de pandemia de COVID- 2022, con
M. (2021a, septiembre 16). Comercio al por menor registra aum
19.
balance
El crecimiento en el comercio al por menor se registró en todas agridulce en
Culminaron
las regioneslos primerospor
evaluadas tres
elmeses de 2022,Nacional
Departamento y los principales
de las cifras.
indicadores dejaron un panorama más agridulce que positivo: Portafolio.co
Estadística (DANE)
la dinámica económica sigue creciendo, pero más modesta, el
empleo se está recuperando, pero la desocupación sigue en
.
dos dígitos, mientras que la inflación sigue disparada, y ya está https://www.
por encima del 8% portafolio.co
/economia/fi
nanzas/prim
er-trimestre-
de-2022-con-
balance-
agridulce-
en-las-cifras-
563624
Justificación
Un informe de la Cámara de
Comercio de La Guajira indica que
en el 2019 Cerrejón aportó el 45,4%
($4,4 billones) a la composición
sectorial del PIB departamental,
generando en ese año 5.896
empleos directos, de los cuales el
66% (3.910) son personas de La Un informe de la Cámara de
Guajira y 5.166 empleos indirectos. Comercio de La Guajira indica
que en el 2019 Cerrejón aportó
el 45,4% ($4,4 billones) a la
composición sectorial del PIB
En marzo de 2020, por el aislamento, departamental, generando en
todos los locales comerciales ese año 5.896 empleos
tuvieron que cerrar y Lole no fue la directos, de los cuales el 66%
excepción. (3.910) son personas de La
Guajira y 5.166 empleos
indirectos. Se toman los datos
A pesar del miedo y de la de la multinacional, por la
incertidumbre a este momento, la ubicación geográfica de Lole, y
empresa se reinventó, se equipó está impactó directamente con
para una de las fechas más las actividades económicas en
esperadas para los comerciantes, y el año 2020. Recuperado de R.
fortaleció las lineas de atenció (2021, 21 marzo). Albania debe
digitales, por lo caul se alcanzaron iniciar su proceso de
ventas nunca antes registradas. descarbonización. El Tiempo.
https://www.eltiempo.com/colom
A este punto, ya se empezó a sentir bia/otras-ciudades/albania-
los efetos de el detenimiento parcial debe-iniciar-su-proceso-de-
de cierta cantidad de trabajadores en descarbonizacion-575213#:
su mayoría indirectos, lo que %7E:text=Un%20informe%20de
representa la mayor parte de la %20la%20C
población de Albania, ubicación %C3%A1mara,Guajira%20y
geográfica del emprendimiento %205.166%20empleos
%20indirectos.
En este momento, las ventas fueron

directamente impactadas por la
huelga de más de 90 días, la
economía en todo el departamento
se vió fuertemente afectada.
De acuerdo con la información

encontrada en el Certificado de
Matrícula Mercantil, el
emprendimiento pertenece a GRUPO
III- MICROEMPRESAS Código
actividad económica G4719-
Comercio al por menor en
establecimiento no especializados.
Por lo que se investiga dentro el
sector económico de minoristas,
debido a que se rige por el
mencionado y se encuentra
suficiente información en este.
De acuerdo con la información
encontrada en el Certificado de
Matrícula Mercantil, el
emprendimiento pertenece a GRUPO
III- MICROEMPRESAS Código
actividad económica G4719-
Comercio al por menor en
establecimiento no especializados.
Por lo que se investiga dentro el
sector económico de minoristas,
debido a que se rige por el
mencionado y se encuentra
suficiente información en este.
Precio de las Flores : 85,000 Ventas totales : 161061273.6
Flores a vender: 632
Subtotal : 53687091.2 Restricciones
Máximo total de anchetas : 98
Precios chocolates: 15,990 Máximo de flores: 30
Chocolates a vender: 3358 Máximo de chocolates: 25
Subtotal: 53687091.2 Máximo de desayunos: 28
Precios desayunos: 65,000 Equivalencias 4816

Desayunos a vender: 826 Total de anchetas: 161061274
Subtotal: 53687091.2 Flores tradiccionales: 3990
VISITAS PUNTO VISTAS REDES
VENTAS (Variable de
FISICO (Variable SOCIALES (Variable
efecto)
causal 1) causal 2)
VENTAS (Variable de
efecto)
1
VISITAS PUNTO FISICO

(Variable causal 1)
-0.232238380560563 1
VISTAS REDES
SOCIALES (Variable
causal 2)
-0.160044089240351 -0.114288926593139 1
CANTIDAD FECHAS
ESPECIALES (Variable
causal 3)
0.456053821840593 0.0471429524011937 -0.0508513640128105
PREUSUPUESTO
MARKETING DIGITAL
(Variable causal 4)
0.358321948794852 -0.316153908224589 0.739192038509943
CANTIDAD FECHAS PREUSUPUESTO
ESPECIALES MARKETING DIGITAL
(Variable causal 3) (Variable causal 4)
0.115727512471569 1
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.784627195437552
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.615639835820199
R^2 ajustado 0.423459753730298
Error típico 2399789.29123912
Observaciones 13
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 4 73794594813539.90 18448648703385.00 3.2034528715 0.0755702234216
Residuos 8 46071909138767.80 5758988642345.97
Total 12 119866503952308.00
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 8174435.67878116 2090296.46542117 3.91065851854374 0.0044768934 3354203.3857173
VISITAS PUNTO FISICO (Variable

causal 1) -2146.86991612355 10020.9610929938 -0.214237925504425 0.8357213427 -25255.247635287
VISTAS REDES SOCIALES

(Variable causal 2) -7707.53730874921 3156.71770174816 -2.44163021117817 0.0404614913 -14986.941382653
CANTIDAD FECHAS ESPECIALES

(Variable causal 3) 744128.386767286 546296.280194448 1.36213335829858 0.2102681697 -515633.09440777
PREUSUPUESTO MARKETING
DIGITAL (Variable causal 4) 15.3485976298045 5.9906584325704 2.56208859219152 0.0335378075 1.5341145117015
MODELO DE REGRESIÓN MÚLTIPLE
VENTAS = 8174435,679 - (2146,869916 * Visitas punto físico) - (7707,537309 * Visitas redes sociales) + (744128,3868 * Cantidad fechas especiales) + (15,3485976
digital)
Y = 8174435,679 - 2146,869916 X1 - 7707,537309 X2 + 744128,3868 X3 + 15,34859763 X4

Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
12994667.972 3354203.38572 12994667.97185
20961.507803 -25255.247635 20961.50780304
-428.13323485 -14986.941383 -428.133234846
2003889.8679 -515633.09441 2003889.867942
29.163080748 1.5341145117 29.16308074791

echas especiales) + (15,34859763 * Presupuesto markting
59763 X4
Ajuste de Distribución para Variables Únicas
Resumen Estadístico
Distribución Ajustada Discreta Uniforme

Mínimo 30.00
Máximo 215.00
Estadística Ji-Cuadrada 201.62

MAPE % for Test Statistic 15.20%
Real Teórica
Media 118.08 122.50
Desviación Estándar 74.83 53.69
Asimetría 0.08 0.00
Curtosis -2.03 -1.20
Datos Originales Ajustados

30.00 30.00 35.00 50.00 67.00 80.00 85.00 167.00 184.00 195.00 197.00 200.00 215.00
Supuesto Ajustado 483.08

Mínimo 50.00
Máximo 895.00

Real Teórica
Media 483.08 472.50
Asimetría -0.31 0.00

50.00 70.00 80.00 80.00 150.00 500.00 684.00 698.00 728.00 735.00 736.00 874.00 895.00

Mínimo 1.00
Máximo 4.00

Real Teórica
Media 2.31 2.50

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

Mínimo 0.00
Máximo 500000.00

Real Teórica
Media 188461.54 250000.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 150000.00 150000.00 200000.00 250000.00 350000.00 350000.00 500000.00 500000.00
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t
Intercepción
VISITAS PUNTO FISICO 8174435.67878116 2090296.46542117 3.91065851854374
VISTAS REDES
(Variable
SOCIALES causal 1) -2146.86991612355 10020.9610929938 -0.214237925504425
CANTIDAD (Variable
FECHAS
causal 2)
ESPECIALES (Variable -7707.53730874921 3156.71770174816 -2.44163021117817
PREUSUPUESTO
causal 3)
MARKETING DIGITAL 744128.386767286 546296.280194448 1.36213335829858
(Variable causal 4) 15.3485976298045 5.9906584325704 2.56208859219152
Y = 8174435,679 - 2146,869916 X1 - 7707,537309 X2 + 74412
VISITAS PUNTO FISICO

Mínimo 30.00
Máximo 215.00
VISTAS REDES SOCIALES

Mínimo 50.00
Máximo 895.00
CANTIDAD FECHAS ESPECIALES
Mínimo 1.00
Máximo 4.00
PREUSUPUESTO MARKETING DIGITAL

Mínimo 0.00
Máximo 500000.00
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
0.00447689337686499 3354203.38571729 12994667.971845 3354203.38571729 12994667.971845
0.835721342666728 -25255.2476352873 20961.5078030402 -25255.2476352873 20961.5078030402
0.0404614912558701 -14986.9413826527 -428.133234845765 -14986.9413826527 -428.133234845765
0.210268169702669 -515633.094407767 2003889.86794234 -515633.094407767 2003889.86794234
0.0335378075266858 1.53411451170148 29.1630807479076 1.53411451170148 29.1630807479076
,869916 X1 - 7707,537309 X2 + 744128,3868 X3 + 15,34859763 X4
VISITAS PUNTO VISTAS REDES CANTIDAD FECHAS PREUSUPUESTO

VENTAS (Variable de
FISICO (Variable SOCIALES (Variable ESPECIALES (Variable MARKETING DIGITAL
efecto)
causal 1) X1 causal 2) X2 causal 3) X3 (Variable causal 4) X4
8174451.02737879
VISTAS PREUSUPU
VISITAS CANTIDAD
REDES ESTO
VENTAS PUNTO FECHAS
SOCIALE MARKETIN
(Variable de FISICO ESPECIALE
S G DIGITAL
efecto) (Variable S (Variable
(Variable (Variable
causal 1) causal 3)
causal 2) causal 4)
6,985,000 80 50 3 0
11,546,000 200 70 4 0
7,654,300 197 80 1 0
8,476,000 184 80 1 0
8,546,000 50 150 3 0
18,192,500 30 500 4 500,000
8,753,000 35 684 1 500,000
7,987,000 30 736 1 250,000
5,300,000 167 874 3 350,000
8,900,000 215 895 4 350,000
7,800,000 195 728 1 200,000
6,905,000 85 735 1 150,000
7,452,000 67 698 3 150,000
Y = 8174435,679 - 2146,8699
Ventas
Distribución Ajustada Discreta Uniforme Distribución Ajustada
Mínimo 30.00 Mínimo
Máximo 215.00 Máximo
PREUSUPU
VISITAS VISTAS CANTIDAD
ESTO
VENTAS PUNTO REDES FECHAS
MARKETIN
(Variable de FISICO SOCIALES ESPECIALE
G DIGITAL
efecto) (Variable (Variable S (Variable
(Variable
causal 1) causal 2) causal 3)
causal 4)
8174435.68
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad
Intercepción 8174435.68 2090296.47 3.91065852 0.00447689
VISITAS PUNTO FISICO (Variable causal 1) -2146.86992 10020.9611 -0.21423793 0.83572134
VISTAS
CANTIDAD REDES SOCIALES
FECHAS (Variable
ESPECIALES causal 2)
(Variable -7707.53731 3156.7177 -2.44163021 0.04046149
causal 3)
PREUSUPUESTO MARKETING DIGITAL 744128.387 546296.28 1.36213336 0.21026817
(Variable causal 4) 15.3485976 5.99065843 2.56208859 0.03353781
Y = 8174435,679 - 2146,869916 X1 - 7707,537309 X2 + 744128,3868 X3 + 15,34859763 X4
Redes sociales fechas especiales

Discreta Uniforme Distribución Ajustada Discreta Uniforme
50.00 Mínimo 1.00
895.00 Máximo 4.00
Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
3354203.39 12994668 3354203.39 12994668
-25255.2476 20961.5078 -25255.2476 20961.5078
-14986.9414 -428.133235 -14986.9414 -428.133235
-515633.094 2003889.87 -515633.094 2003889.87
1.53411451 29.1630807 1.53411451 29.1630807
3 + 15,34859763 X4
echas especiales marketing digital

iscreta Uniforme Distribución Ajustada Discreta Uniforme
Mínimo 0.00
Máximo 500000.00
X Y
4737881.55 5 5000 ### PDF
5927324.43 11 600
7116767.31 25
8306210.19 57 500
9495653.07 98
10685095.95 182 400
11874538.83 242
13063981.71 318
300
14253424.59 428
15442867.47 505 F(x)
200
16632310.35 554
17821753.23 558
19011196.11 547 100
20200638.99 433
21390081.87 381 0
4737881.55
5927324.43
7116767.31
8306210.19
9495653.07
1068509...
1187453...
1306398...
1425342...
1544286...
1663231...
1782175...
1901119...
2257952...
2376896...
2020063...
2139008...
22579524.75 283
23768967.63 164
24958410.51 95 X
26147853.39 56
27337296.27 37
28526739.15 14
29716182.03 6 PDF
30905624.91 0 600
32095067.79 0
33284510.67 1 Value500
150.00
400
300
F(X)
200
100
0
4737881.55
5927324.43
7116767.31
8306210.19
9495653.07
1068509...
1187453...
1306398...
1425342...
1544286...
1663231...
1782175...
1901119...
2257952...
2376896...
2020063...
2139008...
CDF (S)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
P(X)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3548438.6693 8548438.6693 13548438.6693 18548438.6693 23548438.6
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
F Celda R28C2
Nombre VENTAS
Número de Intentos 5000
Media 16746997.6594
Mediana 16747619.3462
Desviación Estándar 4122846.6515
Variación 16997864511554.4000
Coeficiente de Variación 0.2462
Máximo 33284510.6672
Mínimo 3548438.6693
Rango 29736071.9979
Asimetría -0.0069
Curtósis -0.1614
Percentil 25% 13932663.1789
Percentil 75% 19597948.0329
1901119...
2257952...
2376896...
2495841...
2614785...
2852673...
2971618...
3090562...
3209506...
3328451...
2020063...
2139008...
2733729...
Precisión de Error 95% 95.0000

0% 3548438.6693
5% 9904516.8271
10% 11274745.9352
20% 13223820.7792
30% 14590872.8487
F 40% 15675799.5013
50% 16747619.3462
60% 17870847.6307
70% 18943294.2330
80% 20321450.7609
90% 21961285.8951
95% 23351816.7107
99% 26393201.3374
100% 33284510.6672
1901119...
2257952...
2376896...
2495841...
2614785...
2852673...
2971618...
3090562...
3209506...
3328451...
2020063...
2139008...
2733729...
F (S)
8438.6693 23548438.6693 28548438.6693
Left Bin # Line Right Bin # Line

11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
PUNTO FISICO SOCIALES ESPECIALES MARKETING
VENTAS (Variable (Variable causal (Variable causal (Variable causal DIGITAL (Variable
de efecto) 1) 2) 3) causal 4)
17276689.14 167.00 258.00 -0.93 485306.00
17970742.40 34.00 691.00 2.76 152677.00
12021404.95 85.00 167.00 -0.57 182451.00
13745795.65 33.00 136.00 -1.57 366152.00
14915779.01 69.00 246.00 -0.41 325980.00
17965146.12 192.00 354.00 1.08 381134.00
18633950.35 201.00 511.00 5.51 129816.00
15266480.23 39.00 342.00 -2.50 405908.00
25559597.76 161.00 822.00 11.32 148594.00
20050559.49 157.00 488.00 0.64 475726.00
16763463.49 185.00 481.00 0.41 272487.00
18251588.62 129.00 850.00 -0.21 222075.00
20984720.03 159.00 792.00 0.39 395914.00
11720284.88 206.00 164.00 -1.43 189285.00
12051233.74 167.00 517.00 -5.58 240241.00
17746501.91 195.00 397.00 -1.61 475126.00
15260878.45 206.00 503.00 2.62 53223.00
16004851.76 49.00 864.00 -5.71 346165.00
17779153.72 172.00 397.00 4.56 181219.00
21270021.93 200.00 864.00 -1.98 487168.00
13983891.46 60.00 410.00 1.63 85332.00
20005510.81 198.00 387.00 5.42 286254.00
15098458.56 149.00 571.00 1.59 66626.00
14712934.80 117.00 882.00 -5.10 214093.00
21058122.22 77.00 465.00 1.98 499084.00
15652202.62 83.00 282.00 -0.68 367091.00
12748183.40 184.00 681.00 -6.97 268006.00
21076772.60 89.00 819.00 0.59 388186.00
12104763.30 90.00 113.00 -0.91 231018.00
9378611.16 187.00 122.00 -5.85 274456.00
13682171.20 154.00 121.00 0.64 245349.00
19248944.34 105.00 822.00 -2.03 392489.00
11635281.37 94.00 375.00 -3.92 214215.00
19276730.42 98.00 244.00 2.93 445016.00
14795685.40 46.00 750.00 -0.65 80001.00
15283109.68 99.00 328.00 -1.69 366413.00
20143086.03 59.00 711.00 4.50 196185.00
15432613.10 154.00 558.00 1.81 83477.00
10092764.81 113.00 90.00 -0.79 102069.00
20926907.67 180.00 765.00 -0.77 458723.00
15688177.36 127.00 251.00 -2.53 468266.00
9932683.63 178.00 76.00 0.10 46786.00
11488216.58 102.00 410.00 -0.29 10007.00
15236092.70 168.00 797.00 -2.77 170682.00
17965389.18 185.00 668.00 -0.72 311483.00
17015075.90 49.00 753.00 -3.75 372782.00
24457235.88 179.00 847.00 9.32 158854.00
10548895.72 197.00 457.00 -4.61 121313.00
14422566.51 122.00 407.00 2.41 68872.00
16892391.51 56.00 315.00 6.99 63060.00
7520708.59 99.00 655.00 -10.44 120629.00
16832492.30 72.00 523.00 0.20 281875.00
15756748.76 192.00 884.00 -0.33 39057.00
22121751.39 125.00 647.00 4.56 345195.00
15555303.68 52.00 425.00 -3.48 428840.00
14362601.61 39.00 128.00 -2.50 454521.00
13000874.48 94.00 160.00 1.21 162165.00
11184252.70 75.00 79.00 -2.35 259875.00
12023473.52 178.00 225.00 -1.68 194137.00
17419185.64 184.00 791.00 1.17 122530.00
18900299.08 127.00 403.00 0.42 458158.00
17324429.57 50.00 51.00 3.45 396235.00
14826112.11 143.00 851.00 -7.47 348428.00
7805159.83 64.00 113.00 -4.72 139104.00
14665746.22 127.00 128.00 6.02 48930.00
15043049.88 37.00 131.00 -0.89 419920.00
15824902.51 176.00 769.00 -1.34 152584.00
17413796.76 114.00 409.00 5.33 122200.00
19101449.65 202.00 799.00 -0.70 316172.00
16535471.34 150.00 282.00 4.34 171880.00
18261367.16 104.00 666.00 3.28 149323.00
16957965.43 33.00 476.00 -0.68 361775.00
24678931.46 54.00 873.00 5.38 368394.00
13315996.69 212.00 404.00 -2.28 212916.00
12002573.39 48.00 560.00 -3.48 130375.00
12589199.63 164.00 409.00 -0.67 91932.00
18916905.01 46.00 703.00 3.96 148244.00
15444280.36 167.00 425.00 2.31 125114.00
16993710.85 84.00 516.00 3.07 155049.00
14541357.46 100.00 66.00 4.69 140429.00
14093198.30 125.00 520.00 -2.75 240512.00
12399632.94 134.00 154.00 -1.53 253425.00
16175134.86 156.00 819.00 1.33 23736.00
21328347.12 56.00 504.00 2.23 487872.00
12487043.22 102.00 499.00 -2.20 122737.00
21588935.73 166.00 84.00 9.59 343577.00
16356253.68 94.00 568.00 0.41 214676.00
11074579.09 164.00 808.00 -5.77 40165.00
18485235.91 175.00 769.00 3.66 83496.00
23364141.07 76.00 774.00 2.25 481492.00
18535088.42 124.00 273.00 2.18 414722.00
15629567.39 199.00 541.00 -3.98 378980.00
25124819.62 203.00 660.00 6.60 424546.00
17427622.89 180.00 537.00 1.47 236526.00
16764348.54 136.00 461.00 -3.41 474242.00
23436792.90 156.00 755.00 4.15 392007.00
13048857.61 190.00 432.00 -1.50 146584.00
18518290.81 176.00 434.00 3.39 266991.00
16835889.99 199.00 260.00 3.53 234891.00
18668353.37 108.00 180.00 4.03 382622.00
14019021.60 124.00 628.00 0.99 221.00
10804361.09 211.00 215.00 -1.41 102451.00
17857406.43 86.00 282.00 1.97 381960.00
17495563.90 164.00 619.00 -1.32 337546.00
23886769.98 119.00 754.00 8.23 229380.00
23969236.16 88.00 738.00 8.41 238326.00
21177071.24 215.00 375.00 7.21 279173.00
8479000.42 186.00 115.00 -5.62 208486.00
19292424.34 162.00 363.00 0.42 499202.00
22324927.54 92.00 713.00 4.47 334334.00
20725784.47 63.00 101.00 10.32 257829.00
20424435.75 189.00 863.00 4.55 117805.00
21704515.02 210.00 101.00 10.43 295863.00
16460924.60 65.00 318.00 0.51 346423.00
6395117.60 163.00 68.00 -9.67 295803.00
14828241.69 77.00 654.00 -0.38 112800.00
8497651.13 71.00 200.00 -5.47 175692.00
15395598.87 73.00 288.00 -0.65 347300.00
11502067.27 34.00 300.00 -1.34 126323.00
13807776.69 183.00 432.00 2.20 17786.00
20837920.92 136.00 645.00 1.91 389384.00
13170313.18 46.00 436.00 -2.00 196871.00
15306227.12 200.00 683.00 -1.30 156649.00
13989288.34 175.00 232.00 0.11 232362.00
18201554.78 159.00 696.00 -1.21 340146.00
10088528.60 198.00 440.00 -9.63 342780.00
18942577.90 164.00 300.00 1.67 447009.00
16034423.34 37.00 217.00 5.49 131608.00
13891839.70 105.00 869.00 -7.32 276103.00
15896621.57 53.00 545.00 -3.34 383989.00
17235165.59 206.00 607.00 0.32 241225.00
20214698.35 215.00 72.00 6.46 404832.00
15903861.61 194.00 739.00 1.56 29484.00
13014310.37 60.00 843.00 -3.55 55848.00
16913565.84 160.00 815.00 -5.31 395245.00
16317676.39 195.00 331.00 -0.48 360220.00
20052163.25 193.00 66.00 6.34 406155.00
14670474.80 66.00 777.00 -0.65 55153.00
16739763.10 146.00 491.00 3.44 124395.00
19553151.05 35.00 491.00 2.94 347529.00
9278609.62 101.00 690.00 -8.26 111608.00
14688609.05 149.00 735.00 -4.10 233180.00
20411422.85 186.00 817.00 5.18 109833.00
20047685.40 128.00 344.00 5.65 309234.00
22424658.57 86.00 652.00 2.04 490075.00
11111474.82 51.00 136.00 2.15 11787.00
16871830.24 118.00 427.00 0.33 319779.00
12425630.81 68.00 793.00 -4.54 89351.00
12150055.68 70.00 356.00 0.07 66935.00
6672328.65 90.00 162.00 -4.67 34720.00
20507414.49 200.00 424.00 8.62 144799.00
12895363.14 31.00 152.00 1.82 138574.00
17542025.22 150.00 143.00 7.41 158339.00
17071508.82 200.00 647.00 1.79 140213.00
19357834.99 56.00 884.00 3.68 98253.00
17969562.45 100.00 440.00 -1.60 480994.00
5947567.85 183.00 619.00 -11.65 83322.00
14295507.77 204.00 678.00 -1.15 85328.00
13687479.54 147.00 501.00 -5.16 337161.00
7815127.24 54.00 323.00 -7.63 176818.00
19026900.94 190.00 182.00 11.14 49200.00
16755945.78 203.00 698.00 -1.58 256594.00
20008527.71 175.00 158.00 10.30 167924.00
20263892.12 101.00 795.00 3.01 228335.00
11814694.29 64.00 58.00 0.65 167399.00
17782421.89 52.00 400.00 -0.68 450914.00
19116353.83 181.00 705.00 2.90 192862.00
18728338.01 149.00 814.00 -3.14 410286.00
12731084.48 210.00 384.00 -0.74 110390.00
5372452.91 116.00 184.00 -6.60 28869.00
18048477.17 106.00 462.00 -0.20 406093.00
24069380.39 170.00 862.00 4.18 376166.00
14484775.31 186.00 561.00 0.89 60274.00
15429791.07 189.00 625.00 -1.91 224825.00
9811329.17 182.00 128.00 -1.29 79253.00
25199006.72 45.00 789.00 5.49 440411.00
17414294.52 211.00 193.00 -0.39 494242.00
19718855.51 132.00 449.00 10.21 13097.00
21471313.92 212.00 394.00 6.66 316141.00
16256055.96 36.00 494.00 -3.17 427270.00
16460726.82 213.00 837.00 1.45 19373.00
17264769.02 107.00 75.00 8.13 145307.00
17316881.14 60.00 796.00 0.00 187386.00
25320154.88 192.00 786.00 8.78 269703.00
20259450.28 145.00 474.00 4.89 292018.00
15164579.73 140.00 725.00 -2.33 184550.00
12860339.97 144.00 441.00 -3.33 225032.00
15222482.01 171.00 558.00 0.16 147159.00
10884160.03 205.00 413.00 -2.81 76568.00
21932423.15 91.00 752.00 0.66 473948.00
17851601.15 68.00 112.00 4.77 333534.00
11172705.12 43.00 569.00 -3.13 55358.00
9563946.10 110.00 373.00 -7.79 265525.00
12850518.02 158.00 527.00 -1.58 94746.00
17524677.09 165.00 198.00 0.22 475882.00
17591286.51 195.00 483.00 1.31 280023.00
13149205.66 116.00 140.00 0.30 222992.00
18644596.78 160.00 744.00 -2.22 393870.00
18234390.48 36.00 800.00 -0.25 260753.00
11686396.06 210.00 503.00 -1.11 592.00
6225027.97 88.00 74.00 -7.53 188733.00
19074625.52 139.00 799.00 2.05 189874.00
16449143.83 61.00 880.00 0.25 76612.00
13524514.68 105.00 485.00 -5.29 346987.00
16219664.27 130.00 275.00 -2.34 481386.00
18067636.07 64.00 646.00 0.10 306294.00
17043572.15 61.00 241.00 0.96 401824.00
13397268.16 64.00 673.00 -2.12 95921.00
20136909.70 193.00 406.00 2.43 430579.00
20726956.36 122.00 180.00 8.68 289593.00
13640681.83 123.00 93.00 -1.38 359231.00
12982941.48 103.00 98.00 -0.22 260346.00
25602080.58 184.00 628.00 9.12 352266.00
19041936.53 92.00 334.00 4.62 303485.00
12570334.73 144.00 391.00 -2.28 180619.00
15478279.57 102.00 727.00 -2.47 216322.00
16987969.63 171.00 247.00 -1.37 492899.00
11451222.42 192.00 216.00 -2.40 194459.00
14256788.62 84.00 576.00 0.59 66521.00
12605661.31 109.00 636.00 -2.13 57262.00
25744364.49 187.00 874.00 8.83 251783.00
20351559.76 171.00 484.00 5.28 270272.00
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13616745.11 50.00 511.00 0.90 47472.00
13530279.61 207.00 586.00 -5.48 291600.00
14149538.59 84.00 438.00 1.81 69981.00
11068306.06 71.00 110.00 1.86 33101.00
24628974.73 34.00 778.00 4.48 459342.00
25174778.83 169.00 690.00 5.41 475231.00
18901141.13 198.00 578.00 1.74 296803.00
21276050.43 118.00 873.00 0.11 393248.00
12823977.83 204.00 312.00 -3.93 308181.00
9595443.45 74.00 143.00 -8.85 439297.00
18151396.67 193.00 598.00 2.64 194567.00
15395148.32 152.00 558.00 -1.96 263998.00
24289826.95 118.00 451.00 7.61 438068.00
14538426.77 33.00 887.00 -4.36 176125.00
13099085.62 156.00 506.00 -2.49 165607.00
11157463.73 41.00 438.00 -3.94 159736.00
19068374.02 38.00 721.00 -2.37 457426.00
25913036.96 208.00 869.00 4.81 457225.00
11279934.50 188.00 836.00 -6.09 51289.00
13206538.84 48.00 452.00 -1.17 150971.00
13936165.94 103.00 87.00 -3.77 499919.00
22331538.22 34.00 503.00 3.91 475260.00
24267051.21 70.00 690.00 7.08 348778.00
20068228.88 200.00 621.00 4.63 210773.00
17207204.89 130.00 337.00 -0.63 431707.00
15969786.91 104.00 316.00 1.66 253986.00
4548116.09 150.00 80.00 -7.07 45138.00
15796015.34 207.00 885.00 -1.63 102405.00
19907048.83 75.00 802.00 7.08 7980.00
12541716.75 93.00 141.00 -1.13 255682.00
14087636.78 34.00 260.00 3.04 102690.00
19388966.07 36.00 161.00 11.46 89277.00
19704859.61 50.00 571.00 1.63 378586.00
16652232.80 54.00 413.00 6.13 40348.00
19976696.05 119.00 564.00 -0.50 493138.00
24858353.93 125.00 622.00 13.22 116351.00
14196020.48 123.00 668.00 0.52 14660.00
14005450.52 167.00 728.00 -4.64 215844.00
18890519.00 38.00 752.00 4.93 76428.00
15722047.92 145.00 355.00 0.75 256937.00
23480916.65 37.00 763.00 9.11 167477.00
14666500.29 109.00 471.00 -4.88 407776.00
21241162.73 214.00 773.00 1.37 366749.00
22606496.51 170.00 312.00 12.06 175011.00
16384694.14 76.00 440.00 3.14 151031.00
17853821.12 156.00 867.00 0.38 154940.00
14442222.31 129.00 160.00 3.26 151843.00
15090546.87 140.00 682.00 0.60 59233.00
24811000.93 54.00 760.00 7.41 335440.00
16584375.32 159.00 611.00 4.48 1812.00
15349412.66 152.00 588.00 -6.01 442487.00
18715293.84 79.00 342.00 2.84 366231.00
17940184.76 184.00 461.00 6.19 79021.00
14214439.73 152.00 196.00 4.88 37286.00
18622927.68 105.00 615.00 4.33 147192.00
14257677.72 175.00 698.00 -2.06 121186.00
20019557.64 103.00 404.00 2.01 457020.00
17302167.85 97.00 326.00 2.56 293127.00
15607580.10 151.00 642.00 2.45 21834.00
9770686.35 202.00 518.00 -5.78 95762.00
16543659.16 114.00 880.00 0.70 53286.00
18760209.33 187.00 305.00 0.62 480519.00
13408128.59 31.00 786.00 -1.50 14594.00
17612487.73 191.00 484.00 -2.09 446565.00
21153086.26 107.00 724.00 0.91 423154.00
17517252.80 168.00 695.00 -0.36 253443.00
19127169.43 185.00 317.00 1.04 478276.00
18150577.43 128.00 718.00 -3.18 425586.00
22693019.95 146.00 562.00 5.00 401108.00
10168150.22 85.00 147.00 -0.04 45904.00
21651204.66 207.00 590.00 6.31 247099.00
16263368.92 41.00 576.00 3.33 70562.00
16413116.35 119.00 683.00 2.32 64526.00
15573224.38 41.00 218.00 0.45 345015.00
18139924.83 144.00 865.00 -1.43 264032.00
14111268.15 178.00 477.00 0.30 108065.00
13646920.48 164.00 401.00 0.04 130126.00
15375494.72 155.00 403.00 1.98 149236.00
16593862.39 104.00 387.00 5.90 53785.00
16624788.34 189.00 788.00 0.46 105912.00
17788478.47 140.00 356.00 0.76 391146.00
15196167.22 59.00 66.00 4.20 212452.00
10328714.60 59.00 177.00 -2.54 166477.00
17211621.27 186.00 785.00 -1.18 225784.00
21123411.88 68.00 635.00 3.97 322606.00
12694883.51 70.00 438.00 0.69 31422.00
18503967.59 58.00 330.00 3.45 332117.00
20267174.60 87.00 335.00 4.89 370573.00
17736486.45 126.00 100.00 6.95 218197.00
14258371.62 35.00 598.00 -5.38 351857.00
16183994.85 146.00 879.00 -4.14 260592.00
14896108.73 72.00 272.00 0.54 264853.00
17318284.22 49.00 420.00 6.10 82063.00
23241511.50 48.00 728.00 11.16 68413.00
19769884.50 196.00 399.00 2.33 414786.00
13036887.37 83.00 154.00 -3.79 411480.00
21093185.59 88.00 427.00 4.60 391862.00
19044210.61 204.00 774.00 0.22 280400.00
5664929.82 148.00 107.00 -7.35 118384.00
25380993.46 96.00 851.00 4.87 444285.00
18143884.89 193.00 219.00 1.59 435620.00
20464846.78 111.00 617.00 2.43 357699.00
19618726.66 42.00 722.00 1.43 307869.00
14060607.66 33.00 241.00 0.13 251428.00
15058428.94 190.00 283.00 -2.30 391430.00
16519145.83 113.00 617.00 1.93 124701.00
12047734.46 32.00 336.00 1.28 17020.00
24136587.13 175.00 690.00 4.04 472941.00
20109266.04 137.00 677.00 7.71 44855.00
15265624.31 135.00 256.00 -0.18 323196.00
13165255.43 180.00 135.00 3.31 71756.00
18220044.17 88.00 732.00 1.43 205093.00
12656830.25 151.00 486.00 -0.31 41795.00
11123022.31 168.00 92.00 0.41 102699.00
15554057.61 143.00 311.00 5.25 50275.00
20177995.05 56.00 562.00 6.97 153952.00
10009455.06 33.00 554.00 -6.21 138029.00
20910179.01 80.00 324.00 7.13 310244.00
21881791.27 195.00 522.00 8.87 173445.00
18786204.20 207.00 428.00 7.08 104331.00
11594735.78 177.00 149.00 -0.22 133757.00
15626138.27 101.00 636.00 -2.33 264872.00
16187844.96 85.00 682.00 0.81 128321.00
12946535.03 102.00 289.00 1.04 101000.00
14192888.90 61.00 397.00 -3.59 358405.00
10685440.43 173.00 275.00 -3.37 164532.00
13312821.47 137.00 685.00 -2.49 92525.00
9252451.16 43.00 129.00 -1.67 80214.00
12405322.92 99.00 597.00 -1.03 12163.00
20505956.83 71.00 612.00 6.68 162490.00
22705138.08 103.00 477.00 8.88 262461.00
16625307.04 186.00 625.00 -1.93 304359.00
15853758.18 40.00 704.00 -2.68 271312.00
14504242.27 89.00 235.00 0.37 263961.00
16429049.21 212.00 93.00 2.97 317244.00
10922568.93 123.00 64.00 0.55 103200.00
20893707.08 122.00 321.00 5.77 370766.00
22690349.33 211.00 455.00 8.99 251770.00
15444570.16 120.00 727.00 -0.84 132621.00
20260850.06 84.00 568.00 0.86 448835.00
12342037.54 126.00 542.00 -3.48 150683.00
18477345.35 200.00 650.00 4.94 77183.00
10764512.89 68.00 707.00 -5.83 86698.00
17280077.04 211.00 293.00 4.71 188290.00
12793125.42 39.00 700.00 -6.54 261107.00
18275070.06 178.00 464.00 2.33 287041.00
13321666.73 178.00 621.00 -5.41 261013.00
11527454.43 196.00 195.00 -1.87 183912.00
18232060.56 135.00 719.00 -3.80 459675.00
15101406.74 194.00 179.00 -1.20 392660.00
16084723.32 119.00 666.00 1.32 100269.00
16523814.96 111.00 729.00 1.28 100294.00
17575655.97 211.00 850.00 -2.17 261238.00
12298888.00 138.00 865.00 -4.12 14610.00
15262313.74 207.00 521.00 1.05 120286.00
10039892.56 151.00 317.00 -1.60 18663.00
16211371.71 130.00 621.00 2.10 92017.00
22138988.33 62.00 814.00 0.90 448749.00
6431116.78 118.00 256.00 -6.04 34104.00
16925347.15 208.00 413.00 -3.35 496294.00
22617895.56 57.00 772.00 1.45 475136.00
21364937.49 208.00 653.00 4.16 300894.00
18216411.80 158.00 122.00 8.38 164758.00
7877088.56 150.00 92.00 -3.51 83532.00
19829661.88 117.00 468.00 2.64 379906.00
6556128.35 66.00 340.00 -6.65 36785.00
9131845.55 114.00 317.00 -5.82 169256.00
9574624.45 201.00 77.00 -4.88 260936.00
15095485.16 107.00 483.00 -4.28 400796.00
13832419.63 173.00 310.00 -4.64 413711.00
10374949.41 195.00 55.00 0.93 43434.00
12050527.56 204.00 185.00 -1.71 214031.00
19386001.26 51.00 787.00 1.99 231885.00
20775601.23 173.00 370.00 4.32 401564.00
17643601.13 183.00 448.00 0.94 320662.00
18966502.36 154.00 427.00 2.84 329444.00
17317541.13 32.00 426.00 6.38 68027.00
12349116.61 207.00 327.00 -0.06 81570.00
19742081.50 107.00 753.00 5.48 94884.00
14857112.90 188.00 846.00 -3.37 147721.00
11552788.79 42.00 571.00 -2.03 26154.00
15822929.82 110.00 563.00 3.71 20262.00
19715334.49 163.00 295.00 8.89 150058.00
12969592.12 181.00 420.00 -3.02 222367.00
14350218.33 91.00 755.00 -4.84 245395.00
16019121.84 76.00 145.00 0.71 393119.00
14650187.39 118.00 417.00 -5.64 469467.00
25272428.95 124.00 563.00 7.66 442392.00
11759699.76 92.00 218.00 1.74 26784.00
14396413.04 71.00 578.00 -2.04 203906.00
19833302.20 159.00 786.00 0.20 333166.00
16475312.49 95.00 130.00 -0.55 488688.00
15754892.18 155.00 408.00 5.34 8486.00
16220879.00 191.00 596.00 -5.76 477388.00
12852719.66 56.00 420.00 1.77 422.00
15949476.43 133.00 737.00 1.31 54383.00
20245471.56 92.00 126.00 8.31 307325.00
13515962.07 190.00 138.00 -2.06 351901.00
19315432.62 143.00 611.00 4.31 189875.00
17315748.10 158.00 731.00 0.33 190308.00
8650544.70 45.00 110.00 -1.51 42894.00
14627978.43 168.00 841.00 -7.61 343726.00
23450091.22 58.00 573.00 6.33 392330.00
20682195.81 39.00 238.00 5.13 441152.00
12213310.42 93.00 313.00 -0.78 130826.00
14976666.33 54.00 671.00 -3.84 284964.00
11336819.14 67.00 182.00 0.06 102484.00
14759223.83 188.00 613.00 -1.55 169881.00
18492340.76 30.00 215.00 6.52 243784.00
14532110.75 131.00 426.00 -0.40 201561.00
12803028.10 43.00 285.00 0.61 122763.00
16453029.56 66.00 420.00 2.59 193516.00
13379124.28 181.00 823.00 -5.98 190520.00
11359936.06 118.00 195.00 -1.68 174752.00
22353917.83 208.00 637.00 5.78 294402.00
21527070.99 128.00 735.00 4.93 243736.00
22072755.25 96.00 531.00 4.10 426834.00
17435725.19 87.00 355.00 -0.70 447133.00
19649191.45 206.00 832.00 -2.57 425357.00
20036199.78 80.00 783.00 -0.28 381979.00
16043582.04 123.00 66.00 -0.12 468044.00
24998622.79 146.00 795.00 5.37 416041.00
20198227.90 205.00 529.00 1.30 426215.00
20084450.44 134.00 704.00 5.60 132290.00
24327298.46 112.00 873.00 5.88 313169.00
14151656.38 152.00 727.00 -4.61 226691.00
14274515.16 137.00 173.00 0.32 276004.00
8794958.16 213.00 388.00 -4.73 45274.00
10117965.43 89.00 151.00 -4.45 254229.00
22302203.61 108.00 812.00 5.36 237768.00
25489446.94 161.00 852.00 6.35 369934.00
12903658.89 184.00 458.00 -0.72 87396.00
17009237.99 39.00 829.00 0.08 149866.00
16311293.52 212.00 682.00 -3.97 350642.00
18433150.61 204.00 842.00 -0.47 239594.00
18779365.83 113.00 312.00 5.09 271912.00
16044256.98 121.00 421.00 1.32 220310.00
Año Cantidad
INSTITUCION UNIVERSITARIA CEIPA
MODELO DE PROYECCIONES FINANCIERAS PARA PLANES DE NEGOCIO Y DE EMPRESA
DILIGENCIAMIENTO DEL MODELO
Nombre del proyecto LOLE TIENDA DE REGALOS
1. INTEGRANTES
Diligencie en los siguientes recuadros los estudiantes que conforman el grupo
Estudiante 1 Nedis Lorena Leyva González

Estudiante 2 Estefania Serna Durango
Estudiante 3 Daniela Betancur
Estudiante 4 Kelly Puerta
Estudiante 5 David F Díaz
Estudiante 6
2. Años de proyección
Ingrese el primer año o año base para las proyecciones financieras (por ejemplo 2020)
Año base 2022
3. Análisis del entorno

En el análisis del entorno, es necesario Investigar y contemplar las proyecciones de ciertas variables Macroec
En este aspecto, existen entidades que se encargan de realizar estos estudios, y los publican en sus portales
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024

IPC 6.8% 4.1% 3.5%
Re / Devaluación 6.0% -1.3% 0.0%
Tasa de interés 7.25% 5.75% 5.50%
PIB 4.7% 2.9% 2.9%
Fuente: Proyecciones Macroeconómicas Bancolombia, Davivienda, BBVA, entre ot
4. Análisis de mercadeo y ventas

En el plan de mercadeo y ventas, se debe realizar una estimación de las cantidades a facturar y los precios pr
por cada producto y/o servicio, así como también los factores de crecimiento (con base en indicador o estrateg
una de las estrategias de Marketing para atraer clientes.
Ingrese el número de productos o servicios que tiene su proyecto
Ingrese el nombre de cada producto o 1 Caja de flores

servicio 2 Bouquet de globos
3 Basket personalizada
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
El crecimiento en UNIDADES depende de (marque en el recuadro con una X):

a. PIB
b. Estrategia X
c. IPC
En caso de que su crecimiento sea mediante estrategias de mercadeo, indique los crecimientos porcentuales
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024
Crecim. Cantidades 8% 9%
El crecimiento en PRECIOS depende de (marque en el recuadro con una X):

a. PIB
b. Estrategia
c. IPC X
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024
Crecim. Precios
Para cada producto o linea de negocios establacida, determine las cantidades y precios del año uno (1er año)
Cantidad Año 2022

Caja de flores Cantidad a Facturar en el año 500
Bouquet de globos 368
Basket personalizada 145
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nombre las estrategias de mercadeo a realizar en su proyecto y el gasto estimado para cada año, a fin de dar
Estrategia: Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024

Fijación de Precios 0 0
Producto-Distribución 0 0
Comunicacionales 2,000,000 2,082,000 2,154,870
Comercialización 1,200,000 1,249,200 1,292,922
Community Manager 2,000,000 2,082,000 2,154,870
5. Plan operativo
En el plan operativo, además de los procesos y demás elementos que contempla el protocolo, se debe estable
los costos variables, costos fijos y las inversiones requeridas en el proyecto
Determine el costo variable promedio para cada producto para el primer año (Debería ser menor al Precio de
La diferencia entre el Precio de Venta y el Costo Variable Promedio por unidad, nos dará el Margen de Contrib
Costo variable x Unidad Año 2022

Caja de flores 310,432
Bouquet de globos 627,000
Basket personalizada 1,488,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
El crecimiento en costos variables por unidad depende de (marque en el recuadro con una X):
a. PIB
b. Estrategia
c. IPC
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024
Crecim. Costos Var Unit
6. EGRESOS: Costos, gastos e inversión

Dentro del mundo de los egresos, existe en el ámbito financiero tres (3) términos con diferencias claras: Los c
directamente con la generación de la producción o prestación del servicio, mientras que los gastos son los que
Finalmente las inversiones corresponde a la adquisición de la infraestructura necesaria para la consolidación y
Detalle los conceptos de costos fijos asociados al proyecto y el valor mensual para el primer año.
No incluya depreciación y gastos financieros que serán proyectados en forma independiente
Concepto de Costo Fijo Valor mes

Diferentes a los Gastos
Diferentes a los Gastos
Detalle los conceptos de gastos administrativos (incluye los de administracion y ventas) asociados al proyecto
No incluya salarios, depreciación y gastos financieros que serán proyectados en forma independiente más deb
Concepto de Gasto Administrativo Valor mes

Gastos de Constitución 25,000 (Mensual el 1er Año) Notariales, Renv. Reg
Contador 2,000,000 Tales como Contador, Revisoria fiscal, jurid
Arriendo local 450,000 Diferentes a los Costos
servicios publicos 320,000 Diferentes a los Costos
publicidad y promocion Diferentes a las Estrategias de Mercadeo
Cafeteria 100,000 Tales como reparaciones locativas, instala
Productos de Aseo 100,000
Planes de celulares 120,000
Diseño 18,000
Logistica 300,000 Diferente al Impuesto de Industria y comer
Internet, Youtube
Software de facturación Diferente a la adquisición de Software
Uniformes y Dotación 80,000
Otros Gastos (Papelería) 45,000 Que no esten incluidos en los items anterio
El crecimiento en costos y gastos está representado en inflación o en otro porcentaje establecido en el plan op
a. IPC X
b. Otro porcentaje
En caso de que los gastos aumenten por otro porcentaje, ingrese manualmente el mismo por cada año
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024
Incremento egresos
Inversión en Activos Fijos

Ingrese cada uno de los activos fijos necesarios al inicio del proyecto para conformar su infraestructura, determ
Ingrese además la vida útil de los activos, y el Valor de Salvamento o Valor Residual (Una estimación de venta
Muebles y enseres Nombre del activo Valor

Estanteria 1,000,000
Escritorio 300,000
Sillas 500,000
Televisor 1,500,000
Archivador 630,000
Maquinarias y equipos Nombre del activo Valor

Plotter 14,700,000
Aire acondicionado 1,100,000
Nevera 500,000
Selladora 250,000
Inflador de globos 300,000
Guillotina 500,000
Vehículos Nombre del activo Valor
Terrenos Nombre del activo Valor
Edificaciones Nombre del activo Valor
Equipos de computo Nombre del activo Valor

Computador 1,200,000
Impresora 800,000
Camaras de seguridad 2,000,000
Activos Diferidos
(Software e intangibles) Nombre del activo Valor
Pagina web
Plan Administrativo (Empleados Administrativos)

Una vez determinadas las necesidades de personal, la estructura organizacional y las características de la mis
tener el detalle de los empleados con su asignación salarial y carga social y prestacional, la cual corre por par
Ingrese el concepto de empleados que no sean costos y, el valor mensual incluyendo factor prestacional. Si s
cargo, ingrese el total mensual de los mismos, identificando la cantida dde empleados en la descripción
En este punto no incluya los cargos que tengan que ver con los costos fijos (estos van en la sección de Costo
Cargos Valor mes

Bonificación dueños 150,000
Gerente 3,400,000 Recuerde Incluir Prestaciones y Auxilio
Secretario 1,128,413 Recuerde Incluir Salario y/o Bonificación de
Diseñador grafico 3,500,000
Auxiliares 3,000,000
El incremento en salarios cada año puede estar fundamentado en la inflación o en otro porcentaje. Marque cu
a. IPC X
b. Otro porcentaje
En caso de ser otro porcentaje, ingrese manualmente el mismo por cada año
Año 2022 Año 2023 Año 2024
Incremento egresos
7. Plan financiero
Una vez cuantificados los ingresos, costos, gastos e inversión, se requiere información complementaria para e
plan financiero, como son políticas, tasas, impuestos y otros datos. Ingrese cada dato teniendo en cuenta las
Disponible inicial 2 Ingrese los meses de capital de trabajo estimados que nec
Inventario inicial 15 En caso de tener inventario, ingrese los días de inventario
Financiación propia 50,000,000 Del total de la inversión necesaria, ingrese cuanto dinero s
el modelo determinará la diferencia como préstamo y reali
Plazo del crédito 60 Ingrese el plazo de una línea de crédito en meses. No deb
Tasa del crédito 29.04% Ingrese la tasa de interés Efectiva Anual estimada para el
Costo proveedores 0.00% Ingrese el costo financiero de los proveedores (costo de fin
TMRR o COK 20% Ingrese la Tasa Anual mínima de rentabilidad requerida pa
Tasa de Reinversión 0.00% Ingrese la Tasa Anual estimada de rentabilidad que espera
Tasa impuestos 32.00% Ingrese la Tasa Anual del Impuesto de Renta estipulada p
Dias cartera 0 Determine la política de días de cartera o recuperación de
Dias inventario 20 Determine la política de días de inventarios y su rotación e
Dias proveedores 30 Determine la política de días de pago a proveedores
Tarifa Ind y Ccio 0.80% Ingrese la Tarifa de Impuesto de Industria y Comercio (%)
GMF 0.40% Ingrese la Tarifa de Gravamen (%) de Movimiento Financi
Saldo mínimo caja 2,000,000 Ingrese el valor estimado del Saldo mínimo de efectivo (Ca
Precio Costo variable x Unidad
GOCIO Y DE EMPRESA
ALOS
ejemplo 2020)
cciones de ciertas variables Macroeconómicas

udios, y los publican en sus portales digitales
Año 2025 Año 2026

3.3% 3.3% % Inflación Anual Proyectada
1.3% 1.5% % Incremento Tasa de Cambio (TRM) Proyectada
5.50% 5.50% % Tasa de Intermediación Bancaria Proyectada (Efectiva Anual)
2.6% 2.5% % Incremento PIB Proyectado
olombia, Davivienda, BBVA, entre otros
cantidades a facturar y los precios promedio de ventas para el primer año

ento (con base en indicador o estrategia) y el costo de cada
de flores
uet de globos
et personalizada
ndique los crecimientos porcentuales de las unidades para cada año
Año 2025 Año 2026
10% 11%
ndique los crecimientos porcentuales de precios de venta para cada año

Año 2025 Año 2026
ades y precios del año uno (1er año)
ad Año 2022 Precio Año 2022

414,000 Precio Promedio por Unidad
836,000
1,984,000
estimado para cada año, a fin de darse a conocer y atraer clientes en el mercado competitivo
Año 2025 Año 2026

0 0 Ver la Cartilla de la Plantilla
0 0 Ver la Cartilla de la Plantilla
2,225,981 2,299,438 Ver la Cartilla de la Plantilla
ntempla el protocolo, se debe establecer y registrar
año (Debería ser menor al Precio de Venta)

nidad, nos dará el Margen de Contribución del producto y/o Servicio
x Unidad Año 2022

Costo Variable Promedio por Unidad 413909.333333333
836000
1984000
recuadro con una X):
ndique los crecimientos porcentuales de costos variables promedio por unidad para cada año
Año 2025 Año 2026
érminos con diferencias claras: Los costos son todos aquellos egresos que están relacionados
o, mientras que los gastos son los que están relacionados con la parte administrativa y comercial.
ura necesaria para la consolidación y capacidad máxima del proyecto
nsual para el primer año.

orma independiente
ntes a los Gastos

ntes a los Gastos
acion y ventas) asociados al proyecto y el valor mensual para el primer año
ados en forma independiente más debajo de esta plantilla
sual el 1er Año) Notariales, Renv. Registro Mercantil, Tramites y Licencias

como Contador, Revisoria fiscal, juridica, entre otros
ntes a los Costos
ntes a los Costos
ntes a las Estrategias de Mercadeo
como reparaciones locativas, instalaciones electricas, entre otros
nte al Impuesto de Industria y comercio y al 4xMil o GMF
nte a la adquisición de Software
o esten incluidos en los items anteriores
o porcentaje establecido en el plan operativo
mente el mismo por cada año

Año 2025 Año 2026
a conformar su infraestructura, determinando su clasificación en grupo y el valor

or Residual (Una estimación de venta de dichos activos luego de la vida útil registrada)
Vida útil en años

5
Valor salvamento o Valor Residual
Vida útil en años

5
Vida útil en años

5
Vida útil en años

20
Vida útil en años

5
Vida útil en años

3
zacional y las características de la misma, se requiere

l y prestacional, la cual corre por parte de los dueños del proyecto
al incluyendo factor prestacional. Si son varios empleados con el mismo
e empleados en la descripción
os (estos van en la sección de Costos Fijos)
ecuerde Incluir Prestaciones y Auxilio de Transporte

erde Incluir Salario y/o Bonificación de los Dueños
ción o en otro porcentaje. Marque cual sería
Año 2025 Año 2026
e información complementaria para elaborar el

se cada dato teniendo en cuenta las estrategias para el desarrollo del proyecto
capital de trabajo estimados que necesita reservar al inicio del proyecto (Mientras el negocio empiece a dar Ingresos)
entario, ingrese los días de inventario inicial para el proyecto (Cuidado si los productos son Perecederos)
ón necesaria, ingrese cuanto dinero se dispondrá como capital propio (en pesos colombianos)
á la diferencia como préstamo y realizará automáticamente el plan de amortización
na línea de crédito en meses. No debe ser mayor al período de evaluación
erés Efectiva Anual estimada para el préstamo
ciero de los proveedores (costo de financiación por parte de proveedores) si existe
l mínima de rentabilidad requerida para el accionista (También se denomina Costo de Oportunidad de Capital)
l estimada de rentabilidad que espera tener en la inversión diversificada de excedentes de tesorería (Invertir en otras opciones
l del Impuesto de Renta estipulada por la DIAN para los próximos años
de días de cartera o recuperación de ventas a crédito
de días de inventarios y su rotación en caso de que aplique (Cuidado si los productos son Perecederos)
de días de pago a proveedores
mpuesto de Industria y Comercio (%) para la actividad que desarrolla (Escriba el valor en porcentaje: Por ejemplo, para el 10 x
Gravamen (%) de Movimiento Financiero (Escriba el valor en porcentaje: Por ejemplo, el 7 x mil, digite 0,7 y el reglon aparecera
ado del Saldo mínimo de efectivo (Caja Menor) para cubrir la operación normal de uno o dos meses a nivel de Capital de Trab
ectiva Anual)
ece a dar Ingresos)
de Capital)
(Invertir en otras opciones de inversión, diferente al Negocio Original)
: Por ejemplo, para el 10 x mil, digite 1 y el reglon aparecera 1%)
e 0,7 y el reglon aparecera 0,7%)
s a nivel de Capital de Trabajo

LOLE TIENDA DE REGALOS
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
Concepto 2022 2023 2024
Ventas 802,328,000 902,041,324 1,017,637,919

Costos 601,712,000 649,848,960 708,335,366
Utilidad Bruta 200,616,000 252,192,364 309,302,553
Gastos operativos 189,670,588 203,438,728 211,098,145
Utilidad antes impuestos e intereses 10,945,412 48,753,636 98,204,408
Gastos financieros 9,671,951 8,380,414 6,713,814

Ingresos financieros 0 0 0
Utilidad antes de impuestos 1,273,461 40,373,222 91,490,594
Impuestos 407,508 12,919,431 29,276,990
Utilidad neta 865,954 27,453,791 62,213,604

2025 2026
1,156,341,968 1,325,896,391
779,168,903 864,877,482
377,173,065 461,018,908
218,774,003 226,907,658
158,399,061 234,111,251
4,563,233 1,788,125
0 0
153,835,828 232,323,126
49,227,465 74,343,400
104,608,363 157,979,726
BALANCE GENERAL
Inicio 2022 2022 2023
Activos corrientes
Disponible 30,769,098 2,000,000 2,000,000

Inversiones temporales 80,795,672 121,415,545
Deudores (cuentas por cobrar) 0 0
Inventarios 33,430,333 33,428,444 36,102,720
Otros activos
Total activo corriente 64,199,431 116,224,117 159,518,265

37%
Activos de largo plazo
Muebles y enseres 3,930,000 3,930,000 3,930,000

Maquinaria y equipo 17,350,000 17,350,000 17,350,000
Vehículos 0 0 0
Terrenos 0 0 0
Edificaciones 0 0 0
Equipo de computación 4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000
Depreciación acumulada 0 (5,056,000) (10,112,000)
Activos Diferidos 0 0 0
Amortización acumulada 0 0 0
Total activos no corrientes 25,280,000 20,224,000 15,168,000
Total activos 89,479,431 136,448,117 174,686,265

52% 28%
Pasivos corrientes
Proveedores 0 50,142,667 54,154,080

Impuesto por pagar 407,508 12,919,431
Obligaciones financieras corrientes 4,447,443 5,738,980 7,405,580
Total pasivos corrientes 4,447,443 56,289,154 74,479,091
Pasivos no corrientes
Obligaciones financieras no corrientes 35,031,989 29,293,009 21,887,429
Total pasivos no corrientes 35,031,989 29,293,009 21,887,429

Total pasivos 39,479,431 85,582,163 96,366,520
13%
Patrimonio
Capital 50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

Reserva Legal 0 0 86,595
Utilidades retenidas 0 0 779,358
Utilidad del periodo 0 865,954 27,453,791
Total patrimonio 50,000,000 50,865,954 78,319,745

2% 54%
Total pasivo y patrimonio 89,479,431 136,448,117 174,686,265
0 0 0
OS
2024 2025 2026
2,000,000 2,000,000 2,000,000

199,261,751 321,288,027 499,489,213
0 0 0
39,351,965 43,287,161 48,048,749
240,613,715 366,575,188 549,537,962
3,930,000 3,930,000 3,930,000

17,350,000 17,350,000 17,350,000
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
4,000,000 4,000,000 4,000,000
(15,168,000) (20,224,000) (25,280,000)
0 0 0
0 0 0
10,112,000 5,056,000 0
250,725,715 371,631,188 549,537,962

44% 48% 48%
59,027,947 64,930,742 72,073,124

29,276,990 49,227,465 74,343,400
9,556,160 12,331,269 0
97,861,097 126,489,476 146,416,524
12,331,269 0 0
12,331,269 0 0
110,192,366 126,489,476 146,416,524
14% 15% 16%
50,000,000 50,000,000 50,000,000

2,831,974 9,053,335 19,514,171 3170%
25,487,770 81,480,014 175,627,541 3170%
62,213,604 104,608,363 157,979,726 127%
140,533,349 245,141,712 403,121,438

79% 74% 64%
250,725,715 371,631,188 549,537,962
Diferencia en bala 0.00
0 0 0
FLUJO DE CAJA DEL PROYECTO
Concepto 2022 2023
Ventas 802,328,000 902,041,324

Costos 601,712,000 649,848,960
Gastos operativos 189,670,588 203,438,728
Utilidad operativa 10,945,412 48,753,636
Impuesto de renta operativo 3,502,532

Beneficio fiscal financiero -3,095,024
Utilidad operativa despues de impuestos 10,945,412 48,346,128
Depreciación y amortización 5,056,000 5,056,000
Flujo de caja bruto operativo -89,479,431 16,001,412 53,402,128
TIR DEL PROYECTO 61.13% mayor que la TMRR

TMRR o COK 20.00% Tasa Mínima de Retorno Requerida por el Inversionista
TIR MODIFICADA DEL PROYECTO 40.15% mayor a la TMRR
VPN DEL PROYECTO 154,260,877 Mayor a cero
Reposición de capital de trabajo -1,337,138

Reposición de activos fijos 0
Servicio de la deuda 4,447,443 5,738,980

Gastos financieros 9,671,951 8,380,414
Flujo de caja libre inversionista -50,000,000 1,882,019 40,619,873
TIR DEL INVERSIONISTA 77.80%
TMRR 20.00%
TIR MODIFICADA DEL INVERSIONIST 53.10%
VPN 155,289,090
ALOS
OYECTO
2024 2025 2026
1,017,637,919 1,156,341,968 1,325,896,391

708,335,366 779,168,903 864,877,482
211,098,145 218,774,003 226,907,658
98,204,408 158,399,061 234,111,251
15,601,163 31,425,411 50,687,700

-2,681,732 -2,148,420 -1,460,235
85,284,977 129,122,071 184,883,786
5,056,000 5,056,000 5,056,000
90,340,977 134,178,071 189,939,786
o Requerida por el Inversionista
-1,624,622 -1,967,598 -2,380,794

0 0 0
7,405,580 9,556,160 12,331,269

6,713,814 4,563,233 1,788,125
77,846,206 122,026,276 178,201,186

PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO - PRIMER AÑO
COSTOS FIJOS: 2022
Costos fijos 0
Gastos operativos 189,670,588
Gastos financieros 9,671,951
Impuestos 407,508
TOTAL COSTOS FIJOS 199,750,046
COSTOS VARIABLES 2022
Costo variable promedio 593,990
TOTAL COSTOS VARIABLES 593,990

EQUILIBRIO - PRIMER AÑO
PRECIO DE VENTA 2022
Precio de venta promedio 792,032
PRECIO DE VENTA UNITARIO 792,032
PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO 2022
EN UNIDADES (Costos fijos / pvu - cvu) - ANUAL 1,009
EN UNIDADES (Costos fijos / pvu - cvu) - MENSUAL 84
EN PESOS (Costos fijos / 1 - MCU) - ANUAL 798,864,773
EN PESOS (Costos fijos / 1 - MCU) - MENSUAL 66,572,064

Distribución Ajustada Normal

Media 16682.36
Desv.Est 16869.18
Estadístico Kolmogorov-Smirnov 0.18

Prueba Estadística para P-Value 0.9997
Real Teórica
Media 16873.33 16682.36
Curtosis NeuN 0.00

1420.00 16000.00 33200.00

Media 17738.89
Desv.Est 17010.48

Real Teórica
Media 17975.00 17738.89
Curtosis NeuN 0.00

2425.00 17000.00 34500.00

Media 18862.01
Desv.Est 17587.48

Real Teórica
Media 19191.67 18862.01
Curtosis NeuN 0.00

3175.00 18000.00 36400.00
Escenarios
Datos según escenario Bajo Medio Alto
Volumen de ventas en unidades 1,420 2,425 3,175
Precios unit 33,200 34,500 36,400
Costo unit 16,000 17,000 18,000
Datos Esperado
Volumen de ventas en unidades 2,425
Precios unit 34,500 34,500 35638.50
Costo unit 17,000 17,000 17561.00
Costo fijo 62,400
Estrategias de Mercadeo 3,400,000
Gastos Administrativos 176,836
Valor residual 38,000
Inversión Inicial 25,280,000
Costo Oportunidad Capital (COK) 20%
Inflación 3.30%
Rubros
0 1 2
Ingresos 83,662,500 86,423,363
Ventas 83,662,500 86,423,363

Valor Residual
Egresos 25,280,000 44,864,236 86,209,331
Costo Fijo 62,400 64,459

Costo Variable 41,225,000 82,450,000
Estrategias de Mercadeo 3,400,000 3,512,200
Gastos Administrativos 176,836 182,672
Inversión 25,280,000
Flujo Neto (UTILIDAD) (25,280,000) 38,798,264 214,032
Indicadores de Evaluación
VPN ($ 357,278,973.07)
TIR 98.18%
AJUSTE DE PRECIOS Y COSTO UNITARIO SEGÚN INFLACIÓ
36814.57 38029.45 39284.42 40580.81
18140.51 18739.15 19357.54 19996.34
Años
3 4 5 6
89,275,333 92,221,419 95,264,726 98,408,462
89,275,333 92,221,419 95,264,726 98,408,462
127,558,389 168,911,541 210,268,921 251,630,671
66,586 68,784 71,054 73,398

123,675,000 164,900,000 206,125,000 247,350,000
3,628,103 3,747,830 3,871,508 3,999,268
188,700 194,927 201,359 208,004
(38,283,055) (76,690,121) (115,004,195) (153,222,208)

TO UNITARIO SEGÚN INFLACIÓN
41919.98 43303.34 44732.35 46208.51
20656.22 21337.88 22042.03 22769.41
7 8 9 10
101,655,942 105,010,588 108,475,937 112,055,643
101,655,942 105,010,588 108,475,937 112,055,643

38,000
292,996,933 334,367,857 375,743,596 417,124,310
75,820 78,323 80,907 83,577

288,575,000 329,800,000 371,025,000 412,250,000
4,131,244 4,267,575 4,408,405 4,553,882
214,868 221,959 229,284 236,850
(191,340,991) (229,357,269) (267,267,659) (305,068,667)

X Y
4756284.83 10 5000 ### PDF
5886259.61 21 600
7016234.38 24
8146209.16 47 500
9276183.93 92
10406158.70 151 400
11536133.48 213
12666108.25 329
300
13796083.03 397
14926057.80 471 F(x)
200
16056032.58 509
17186007.35 508
18315982.12 502 100
19445956.90 489
20575931.67 363 0
1153613...
1266610...
1944595...
2057593...
2170590...
2283588...
1040615...
1379608...
1492605...
1605603...
1718600...
1831598...
4756284.83
5886259.61
7016234.38
8146209.16
9276183.93
21705906.45 288
22835881.22 211
23965856.00 174 X
25095830.77 98
26225805.54 58
27355780.32 27
28485755.09 9 PDF
600
29615729.87 7
30745704.64 1
31875679.42 1 Value500
150.00
400
300
F(X)
200
100
0
1153613...
1266610...
1944595...
2057593...
2170590...
2283588...
1040615...
1379608...
1492605...
1605603...
1718600...
1831598...
4756284.83
5886259.61
7016234.38
8146209.16
9276183.93
CDF (S)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
)
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
P(X)
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
3626310.0579 8626310.0579 13626310.0579 18626310.0579 236263
X
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
F Celda R28C2
Nombre TAS (Variable de efecto)
Número de Intentos 5000
Media 16598253.3718
Mediana 16581699.8130
Desviación Estándar 4200372.7895
Variación 17643131570454.9000
Coeficiente de Variación 0.2531
Máximo 31875679.4157
Mínimo 3626310.0579
Rango 28249369.3578
Asimetría 0.0151
Curtósis -0.1313
Percentil 25% 13718938.3998
Percentil 75% 19407942.2926
1944595...
2057593...
2170590...
2283588...
2622580...
2735578...
1831598...
2396585...
2509583...
2848575...
2961572...
3074570...
3187567...
Precisión de Error 95% 95.0000

0% 3626310.0579
5% 9684512.4277
10% 11207416.6290
20% 13032311.5792
30% 14349488.7869
F 40% 15459320.2537
50% 16581699.8130
60% 17668384.7344
70% 18767458.3592
80% 20156345.3185
90% 22151526.5741
95% 23631811.2631
99% 26065540.1023
100% 31875679.4157
1944595...
2057593...
2170590...
2283588...
2622580...
2735578...
1831598...
2396585...
2509583...
2848575...
2961572...
3074570...
3187567...
(S)
8626310.0579 23626310.0579 28626310.0579
Left Bin # Line Right Bin # Line

11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20
11 20

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Valor

Concepto Cantidad Valor total

Costos variables (Producto) Caja de flores

Caja de madera $ 24,000

Costos variables (Producto) Bouquet de globos

Costos variables Gift Basket personalizada

oducto) Bouquet de globos

Gift Basket personalizada

Costo por unidad

CESANTIA 8.33% 275,407

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 4,701.72 8

CESANTIA 8.33% 98,431

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 14,583.33 8

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 8,333.33 8

CESANTIA 8.33% 249,900

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 8,333.33 8

CESANTIA 8.33% 208,550

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 6,250.00 8

Horas Ord. Diurnas 100% 6,250.00 8

CESANTIA 8.33% 83,300

Periodo DEL 1 DE ENERO AL 15 DE ENERO

Periodo NOMINA DEL 1 DE ABRIL AL 15 DE ABRIL

Periodo NOMINA DEL 1 DE ABRIL AL 15 DE ABRIL

Periodo NOMINA DEL 1 DE ABRIL AL 15 DE ABRIL

Periodo NOMINA DEL 1 DE ABRIL AL 15 DE ABRIL

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

3,400,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 272,000

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

1,128,413 TOTAL DEDUCC 90,273

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

3,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 280,000

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

2,000,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 160,000

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

2,000,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 160,000

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

1,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 120,000

TOTAL DEDUCCIONES VALOR

1,500,000 TOTAL DEDUCC 120,000

11,546,000 200 70 4 0 TRIMESTRE 2

7,654,300 197 80 1 0 TRIMESTRE 3

8,476,000 184 80 1 0 TRIMESTRE 4

8,546,000 50 150 3 0 TRIMESTRE 1

18,192,500 30 500 4 500,000 TRIMESTRE 2

8,753,000 35 684 1 500,000 TRIMESTRE 3

7,987,000 30 736 1 250,000 TRIMESTRE 4

5,300,000 167 874 3 350,000 TRIMESTRE 1

8,900,000 215 895 4 350,000 TRIMESTRE 2

7,800,000 195 728 1 200,000 TRIMESTRE 3

7,452,000 67 698 3 150,000 TRIMESTRE 1

Aunque el mes de las madres coincidió con la jornada de

El crecimiento en el comercio al por menor se registró en todas

En este momento, las ventas fueron

De acuerdo con la información

Precios desayunos: 65,000 Equivalencias 4816

VISITAS PUNTO FISICO

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

VISITAS PUNTO FISICO (Variable

VISTAS REDES SOCIALES

CANTIDAD FECHAS ESPECIALES

Y = 8174435,679 - 2146,869916 X1 - 7707,537309 X2 + 744128,3868 X3 + 15,34859763 X4

20961.507803 -25255.247635 20961.50780304

-428.13323485 -14986.941383 -428.133234846