TALLER 5 estadistica

Dario Alonso Ramirez Amaya

Freddy Alexander Portilla

Punto 1. Probabilidad de la inundacion.

Media1 = 1 / 0.01
100.

varianza1 = (1 - 0.01) / (0.01 ^ 2)

9900.

Desv = Sqrt[varianza1]
99.4987

Distribucion Binomial PROBABILIDAD DE QUE OCURRA 1 O 2 VECES en 20 años

Media2 = 20 * 0.01
0.2

Desv2 = Sqrt[Media2 * (1 - 0.001)]

0.44699

unaodosvecesen20años = RandomVariate[BinomialDistribution[20, 0.01], 10 000];

Mean[unaodosvecesen20años] // N
0.2113

Length[Select[unaodosvecesen20años, # ⩵ 1 &]]
1682

RTA:
prob1vezen20años = In[25] / 10 000 // N
0.1682

Probability[x ⩵ 1, x  BinomialDistribution[20, 0.01]]

0.165234

Length[Select[unaodosvecesen20años, # ⩵ 2 &]]
162

RTA:

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prob2vecesen20años = In[29] / 10 000 // N

0.0162

Probability[x ⩵ 2, x  BinomialDistribution[20, 0.01]]

0.0158558

Probabilidad de que la inundacion ocurra entre 18 y 20 años

Ocurrenciaentre18y19años = RandomVariate[GeometricDistribution[0.01], 10 000];

Length[Select[Ocurrenciaentre18y19años, # ⩵ 18 &]]
76

Length[Select[Ocurrenciaentre18y19años, # ⩵ 19 &]]
67

Length[Select[Ocurrenciaentre18y19años, # ⩵ 20 &]]
77

P18 = In[34] / 10 000 // N

0.0076

P19 = In[37] / 10 000 // N

0.0067

P20 = In[38] / 10 000 // N

0.0077

RTA:
Pentre18y20 = P18 + P19 + P20
0.022

Probability[18 ≤ x ≤ 20, x  GeometricDistribution[0.01]]

0.0247859

Punto 2. Dias de viento

Probabilidad de 2 dias de viento consecutivos en 1 mes
V31 = 25 / 366 // N
0.068306

un = 31 * V31
2.11749

diasV = RandomVariate[PoissonDistribution[un], 10 000];

dias0 = Length[Select[diasV, # ⩵ 0 &]]

1142

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p0diasven31dias = dias0 / 10 000 // N

0.1142

dias1 = Length[Select[diasV, # ⩵ 1 &]]

2576

p1diasven31dias = dias1 / 10 000 // N

0.2576

dias2 = Length[Select[diasV, # ⩵ 2 &]]

2755

p2diasen31dias = dias2 / 10 000 // N

0.2755

RTA:
p2diasseguidosdeviento = 1 - p0diasven31dias - p1diasven31dias - p2diasen31dias
0.3527

1 - Probability[0 ≤ x ≤ 2, x  PoissonDistribution[2.1174863387978142`]]
0.355088

Gaficas de las funciones Exponencial, Gamma y Beta.

GRAFICA DE LA FUNCION EXPONENCIAL (PARAMETROS ASUMIDOS)
Plot[PDF[ExponentialDistribution[0.05], x], {x, 0, 60}]

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

10 20 30 40 50 60

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Plot[CDF[ExponentialDistribution[0.05], x], {x, 0, 60}]

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

10 20 30 40 50 60

GRAFICA DE LA FUNCION GAMMA (PARAMETROS ASUMIDOS)

Plot[PDF[GammaDistribution[3, 3], x], {x, 0, 60}]

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

10 20 30 40 50 60

Plot[CDF[GammaDistribution[3, 3], x], {x, 0, 60}]

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

10 20 30 40 50 60

GRAFICA FUNCION BETA (PARAMETROS ASUMIDOS)

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Plot[PDF[BetaDistribution[0.5, 4], x], {x, 0, 4}]

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

1 2 3 4

Plot[CDF[BetaDistribution[0.5, 4], x], {x, 0, 4}]

1.000

0.999

0.998

0.997

0.996

0.995

0.994

1 2 3 4

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