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Poisson e Hipergeometrica
Poisson e Hipergeometrica
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(x)= 3xe-3
X!
Calcule f(2)
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(2)= 32e-3
2!
F(2)= 9 (0.0498)
(2)(1)
F(2)= 0.4482
2
F (2) = 0.2241
Calcule f(1)
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(1)= 31e-3
1!
F(1)= 3 (0.0498)
(1)
F(1)= 0.1494
1
F(1) = 0.1494
Calcule P(x≥2)
P (x≥2) = 1 - P (x≤2)
P (x≥2) = 1 – (0.1494)
P (x≥2) = 0.8506
Calcule f (0)
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F (0)= 30e-3
0!
F (0)= 0 (0.0498)
1!
F (0)= 0
1
F (0) = 0
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(x)= 2xe-2
X!
¿Cuál es el número esperado de ocurrencias en tres periodos de
tiempo?
Λ = (3) (2)
Λ =6
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(x)= 3xe-3
X!
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(2)= 22e-2
2!
F(2)= 4 (0.1353)
(2)(1)
F(2)= 0.5412
2
F(2) = 0.2706
Calcule la probabilidad de seis ocurrencias en tres periodos de
tiempo.
F(x)= Uxe-u
X!
F(6)= 66e-6
6!
F(6)= 46.656 (0.0025)
(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
F(6)= 116.64
720
F(6) = 0.162
F(x)= 4xe-4
X!
F(5)= 45e-4
5!
F(5)= 1024 (0.0183)
(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
F(5)= 18.7392
120
F(2) = 0.1562
a. Suponga que N=10 y r=3. Calcule las probabilidades hipergeometricas
correspondientes a los valores siguientes de n y x.
n=4; X=1
F(x) = r N–r
X n–x
N
n
F (1) = 3 10 – 3
1 4– 1
10
4
F (1) = 3 10 – 3
1 4– 1
10
4
3 = n!
1 x!(n-x)!
3 = 3!
1 1!(3-1)!
3 = (3)(2)(1)
1 (1)(2)(1)
3 = (6) = 3
1 (2)
10 – 3 n!
4 – 1 x!(n-x)!
7 7!
3 3!(7-3)!
7 (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
3 (3)(2)(1)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7 5.040
3 144
7 = 35
3
10 n!
4 x!(n-x)!
10 10!
4 4!(10-4)!
10 10!
4 4!6!
10 (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
4 (4)(3)(2)(1)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
10 3.628.800
4 17.280
10 = 210
4
F (1) = 3 10 – 3
1 4– 1
10
4
F (1) = (3)(35)
210
F (1) = 105
210
F (1) = 0.50
n=2; X=2
F(x) = r N–r
x n–x
N
n
f(2) = 3 10 – 3
2 2– 2
10
2
f (2) = 3 10 – 3
2 2– 2
10
2
3 = 3!
2 2!(3-2)!
3 = 3!
2 2!(3-2)!
3 = (3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(1)
3 = (6) = 3
2 (2)
10 – 3 n!
2 – 2 x!(n-x)!
7 7!
0 0!(7-0)!
7 (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
0 (1)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7 5.040
0 5.040
7 =1
0
10 n!
2 x!(n-x)!
10 10!
2 2!(10-2)!
10 10!
2 2!8!
10 (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
10 3.628.800
2 80.640
10 = 45
2
f (2) = 3 10 – 3
2 2– 2
10
2
F(1) = (3)(1)
45
F(1) = 3
45
F (1) = 0.067
n=2; X=0
F(x) = r N–r
x n–x
N
n
f(0) = 3 10 – 3
0 2– 0
10
2
f (0) = 3 10 – 3
0 2– 0
10
2
3 = 3!
0 0!(3-0)!
3 = 3!
0 0!(3-0)!
3 = (3)(2)(1)
0 (1)(3)(2)(1)
3 = (6) = 1
0 (6)
10 – 3 n!
2 – 0 x!(n-x)!
7 7!
2 2!(7-2)!
7 (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7 5.040
2 240
7 = 21
2
10 n!
2 x!(n-x)!
10 10!
2 2!(10-2)!
10 10!
2 2!8!
10 (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
10 3.628.800
2 80.640
10 = 45
2
f (0) = 3 10 – 3
0 2– 0
10
2
F(1) = (1)(21)
45
F(1) = 21
45
F (1) = 0.4667
n=4; X=2
F(x) = r N–r
x n–x
N
n
f(2) = 3 10 – 3
2 4– 2
10
2
f (2) = 3 10 – 3
2 4– 2
10
4
3 = 3!
2 2!(3-2)!
3 = 3!
2 2!(3-2)!
3 = (3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(1)
3 = (6) = 3
2 (2)
10 – 3 n!
4 – 2 x!(n-x)!
7 7!
2 2!(7-2)!
7 (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7 5.040
2 240
7 = 21
2
10 n!
4 x!(n-x)!
10 10!
4 4!(10-4)!
10 10!
4 2!6!
10 (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
4 (4)(3)(2)(1)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
10 3.628.800
4 17.280
10 = 210
4
f (0) = 3 10 – 3
2 4 – 2
10
4
F(1) = (3)(21)
210
F(1) = 63
210
F (1) = 0.3
b. En una encuesta realizada por Gallup Organization, se les pregunto a los
interrogados, “Cual es el deporte que prefieres ver”. Futbol y basquetbol
ocuparon el primero y segundo lugar de preferencia. Si en un grupo de 10
individuos, siete prefieren futbol y tres prefieren basquetbol. Se toma
una muestra aleatoria de tres de estas personas.
F(x) = r N–r
x n–x
N
n
f(2) = 7 10 – 7
2 3– 2
10
3
f (2) = 7 10 – 7
2 3– 2
10
3
7 = 7!
2 2!(7-2)!
7 = 7!
2 2!(7-2)!
7 = (7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
2 (2)(1)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
7 = (5040) = 21
2 (240)
10 – 7 n!
3 – 2 x!(n-x)!
3 3!
1 1!(3-1)!
3 (3)(2)(1)
1 (1)(2)(1)
3 6
1 2
3 =3
1
10 n!
3 x!(n-x)!
10 10!
3 3!(10-3)!
10 10!
3 3!7!
10 (10)(9)(8)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
3 (3)(2)(1)(7)(6)(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
10 3.628.800
3 30.240
10 = 108
3
f (0) = 7 10 – 7
2 3 – 2
10
3
F(1) = (21)(3)
108
F(1) = 63
108
F (1) = 0.5833