ANLISIS DE UNA SERIE HISTRICA DE TRNSITO MOPT - INVIAS Y PROYECCIN DEL NMERO DE EJES SENCILLOS EQUIVALENTES

DE 80 kN DEL ESTNDAR AASHTO PARA PAVIMENTOS FLEXIBLES.

Estacin
Sector

799
Pensilvania - Manzanares

1. Serie histrica de trnsito

Composicin
Ao TPDS

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

261
321
306
362
318
269
377
323
339
321
321
256
253
196
234
244
262
329

%
%
%
Camion
Autos Buses
es
62%
8%
30%
66%
7%
27%
69% 10%
21%
74%
7%
19%
64% 10%
26%
69%
7%
24%
71%
7%
22%
70%
8%
22%
80%
5%
15%
77%
4%
19%
73%
3%
24%
81%
3%
16%
77%
7%
16%
79%
5%
16%
66%
7%
27%
69% 12%
19%
63% 10%
27%
62% 11%
27%

Aforo de camiones. Total

de 7 das.

Aforo de camiones. % del TPDS.

Factor de deterioro vehicular (FDV)

C2P C2G C3C4 C5 >C5 %C2P %C2G %C3C4 %C5 %>C5 B(1)

C2P C2G C3C4(2)

103
124
186
147
197
108
168
154
135
112
105
121
156
157
84
91
113
163

0.10
0.10
0.10
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.16
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
1.14
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15

456
429
225
299
327
315
369
313
199
280
411
143
114
52
315
205
340
445

1
45
40
32
60
30
41
27
33
42
32
23
15
7
50
21
37
22

0
0
0
0
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0

5.6%
5.5%
8.7%
5.8%
8.8%
5.7%
6.4%
6.8%
5.7%
5.0%
4.7%
6.8%
8.8%
11.4%
5.1%
5.3%
6.2%
7.1%

25.0%
19.1%
10.5%
11.8%
14.7%
16.7%
14.0%
13.8%
8.4%
12.5%
18.3%
8.0%
6.4%
3.8%
19.2%
12.0%
18.5%
19.3%

0.1%
2.0%
1.9%
1.3%
2.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%
1.4%
1.9%
1.4%
1.3%
0.8%
0.5%
3.1%
1.2%
2.0%
1.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%

0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90

(1) En ausencia de un FDV para los buses, tome 1.00.

(2) Si se dispone de varios FDV para la clase C3C4, emplee el mayor de todos.
(3) Recomendacin de la Gua Metodolgica para el Diseo de Obras de Rehabilitacin de Pavimentos Asflticos en Carreteras.

2.80
2.80
2.80
2.16
2.16
2.16
2.16
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
3.44
2.15
2.15
2.15
2.15

6.70
6.70
6.70
4.39
4.39
4.39
4.39
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.76
3.15
3.15
3.15
3.15

C5
5.30
5.30
5.30
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.40
4.21
4.21
4.21
4.21

Factor
Factor
NESE
direccional de carril
histrico
(3)
(FCa)
(FD)
>C5

5.90
5.90
5.90
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.42
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
4.72
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.31

0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55
0.55

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00

41,296
47,962
32,430
36,744
46,760
34,002
43,845
43,494
30,667
38,134
49,170
21,931
21,435
12,788
32,078
25,438
36,312
46,015

60,000

50,000

NESE

40,000

30,000

20,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000

10,000

0
0

10

15

20

25
Ao - 1988

30

35

40

Serie histrica de NESE

Modelo elegido Raz cuadrada de Y

NESE futuro. R = 50%

NESE futuro. R = 70%

45

50

2. Modelos de regresin

Modelo lineal: NESE = A + B * (Ao)

Variable X
Ao

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

72.25
56.25
42.25
30.25
20.25
12.25
6.25
2.25
0.25
0.25
2.25
6.25
12.25
20.25
30.25
42.25
56.25
72.25

No. De datos (m)

Promedio de X

18
9.50

484.50

NESE
real

NESE modelo

Error de
NESE

41,296
47,962
32,430
36,744
46,760
34,002
43,845
43,494
30,667
38,134
49,170
21,931
21,435
12,788
32,078
25,438
36,312
46,015

41,860
41,121
40,383
39,645
38,906
38,168
37,429
36,691
35,953
35,214
34,476
33,737
32,999
32,260
31,522
30,784
30,045
29,307

317,818
46,791,239
63,253,549
8,415,650
61,676,244
17,356,568
41,163,987
46,277,817
27,939,610
8,523,864
215,929,695
139,383,969
133,729,524
379,163,903
309,324
28,573,034
39,274,907
279,151,353

A
B
R
Error de estimacin

Modelo logartmico en Y: log10(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Puntos
log10
Residual atpicos
(NESE real)
(-2,+2)
-564
-0.058
4.616
6,840
0.698
4.681
-7,953
-0.811
4.511
-2,901
-0.296
4.565
7,853
0.801
4.670
-4,166
-0.425
4.531
6,416
0.655
4.642
6,803
0.694
4.638
-5,286
-0.539
4.487
2,920
0.298
4.581
14,695
1.499
4.692
-11,806 -1.204
4.341
-11,564 -1.180
4.331
-19,472 -1.987
4.107
556
0.057
4.506
-5,345
-0.545
4.405
6,267
0.639
4.560
16,708
1.705
4.663
42,598
-738.4
14.66%
9,802

log10
(NESE modelo)

Error de
log10(NESE)

4.624
4.613
4.601
4.590
4.579
4.568
4.557
4.546
4.535
4.524
4.513
4.502
4.490
4.479
4.468
4.457
4.446
4.435

0.0001
0.0047
0.0082
0.0006
0.0082
0.0013
0.0072
0.0085
0.0023
0.0033
0.0320
0.0258
0.0254
0.1388
0.0014
0.0027
0.0130
0.0519

Puntos
Residual atpicos
(-2, +2)
553,123
-744
-0.075
48,757,577
6,983
0.706
56,482,725
-7,515
-0.759
4,813,135
-2,194
-0.222
77,518,553
8,804
0.890
8,975,502
-2,996
-0.303
60,546,029
7,781
0.786
69,546,526
8,339
0.843
12,964,412
-3,601
-0.364
22,381,177
4,731
0.478
275,897,843 16,610
1.678
96,185,413
-9,807
-0.991
90,309,561
-9,503
-0.960
301,681,743 -17,369 -1.755
7,191,784
2,682
0.271
10,346,209
-3,217
-0.325
70,229,815
8,380
0.847
352,968,972 18,787
1.898
Error de
NESE

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, log 10 (Sw)
Error de estimacin NESE

4.635
-0.011
15.10%
0.1448
9,897

Modelo lineal

Modelo logartmico 10

NESE = 42,598 +(-738.4) * (Ao)

NESE = 43,128 * 10 ^ [-0.011 *(Ao) ]

Anlisis de residuales de NESE

Mximo residual
20,947
Mnimo residual
-19,472
Rango
40,419
Intervalos
10
Ancho de intervalo
4,042
Modelo potencial:
log10(NESE) = A + B*log10(Ao)

Modelo exponencial:
Ln(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo recproco en Y:
(1 / NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo raz cuadrada de Y:

(NESE)^0.5 = A + B*(Ao)

-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000

Modelo logartmico en Y:
log10(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Menor o igual que

Modelo lineal:
NESE = A + B * (Ao)

Frecuencia absoluta

0
1
2
3
3
2
5
1
1
0
18

0
1
0
3
5
2
5
0
2
0
18

0
1
0
4
4
1
5
1
2
0
18

0
1
0
3
5
2
5
0
2
0
18

0
0
1
3
5
0
4
3
1
1
18

0
1
2
1
5
2
5
0
2
0
18

Frecuencia relativa

0.000
0.056
0.111
0.167
0.167
0.111
0.278
0.056
0.056
0.000

0.000
0.056
0.000
0.167
0.278
0.111
0.278
0.000
0.111
0.000

0.000
0.056
0.000
0.222
0.222
0.056
0.278
0.056
0.111
0.000

0.000
0.056
0.000
0.167
0.278
0.111
0.278
0.000
0.111
0.000

0.000
0.000
0.056
0.167
0.278
0.000
0.222
0.167
0.056
0.056

0.000
0.056
0.111
0.056
0.278
0.111
0.278
0.000
0.111
0.000

2. Modelos de regresin

Modelo potencial: log10(NESE) = A + B*log10(Ao)

log10
(Ao)

log10
(NESE real)

log10
(NESE modelo)

Error de
log10(NESE)

Error de
NESE

0.0000
0.3010
0.4771
0.6021
0.6990
0.7782
0.8451
0.9031
0.9542
1.0000
1.0414
1.0792
1.1139
1.1461
1.1761
1.2041
1.2304
1.2553

4.616
4.681
4.511
4.565
4.670
4.531
4.642
4.638
4.487
4.581
4.692
4.341
4.331
4.107
4.506
4.405
4.560
4.663

4.677
4.626
4.597
4.576
4.559
4.546
4.535
4.525
4.517
4.509
4.502
4.496
4.490
4.484
4.479
4.475
4.470
4.466

0.0037
0.0030
0.0074
0.0001
0.0122
0.0002
0.0115
0.0128
0.0009
0.0053
0.0360
0.0239
0.0251
0.1425
0.0007
0.0048
0.0081
0.0388

38,921,953
32,005,856
50,212,959
820,792
110,181,021
1,360,066
91,726,584
99,736,624
4,765,386
34,350,326
303,131,094
87,741,274
89,207,979
313,605,728
3,735,678
19,199,617
46,167,806
281,552,274

Modelo exponencial: Ln(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Puntos
Ln
Residual atpicos
(NESE real)
(-2, +2)
-6,239
-0.622
10.629
5,657
0.564
10.778
-7,086
-0.707
10.387
-906
-0.090
10.512
10,497
1.047
10.753
-1,166
-0.116
10.434
9,577
0.955
10.688
9,987
0.996
10.680
-2,183
-0.218
10.331
5,861
0.585
10.549
17,411
1.737
10.803
-9,367
-0.934
9.996
-9,445
-0.942
9.973
-17,709 -1.766
9.456
1,933
0.193
10.376
-4,382
-0.437
10.144
6,795
0.678
10.500
16,780
1.674
10.737

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, log 10
Error de estimacin NESE

4.677
-0.168
14.75%
0.1451
10,026

Ln
(NESE modelo)

Error de
Ln (NESE)

10.646
10.621
10.595
10.570
10.544
10.519
10.493
10.468
10.442
10.416
10.391
10.365
10.340
10.314
10.289
10.263
10.238
10.212

0.0003
0.0248
0.0434
0.0034
0.0435
0.0071
0.0382
0.0453
0.0123
0.0175
0.1699
0.1366
0.1347
0.7360
0.0076
0.0142
0.0688
0.2754

Puntos
Residual atpicos
(-2 , +2)
553,123
-744
-0.075
48,757,577
6,983
0.706
56,482,725
-7,515
-0.759
4,813,135
-2,194
-0.222
77,518,553
8,804
0.890
8,975,502
-2,996
-0.303
60,546,029
7,781
0.786
69,546,526
8,339
0.843
12,964,412
-3,601
-0.364
22,381,177
4,731
0.478
275,897,843 16,610
1.678
96,185,413
-9,807
-0.991
90,309,561
-9,503
-0.960
301,681,743 -17,369 -1.755
7,191,784
2,682
0.271
10,346,209
-3,217
-0.325
70,229,815
8,380
0.847
352,968,972 18,787
1.898
Error de
NESE

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, Ln
Error de estimacin NESE

10.672
-0.026
15.10%
0.3335
9,897

Modelo potencial

Modelo exponencial

NESE = 47,535 * (Ao) ^ (-0.168)

NESE = 43,128 * EXP [-0.026 * (Ao)]

Frecuencia relativa acumulada

0.000
0.056
0.167
0.333
0.500
0.611
0.889
0.944
1.000
1.000

0.000
0.056
0.056
0.222
0.500
0.611
0.889
0.889
1.000
1.000

0.000
0.056
0.056
0.278
0.500
0.556
0.833
0.889
1.000
1.000

0.000
0.056
0.056
0.222
0.500
0.611
0.889
0.889
1.000
1.000

0.000
0.000
0.056
0.222
0.500
0.500
0.722
0.889
0.944
1.000

0.000
0.056
0.167
0.222
0.500
0.611
0.889
0.889
1.000
1.000

2. Modelos de regresin

Modelo recproco en Y: (1 / NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

1 / NESE real

1 / NESE modelo

Error de
1 / NESE

Error de
NESE

Residual

2.4215E-05
2.0850E-05
3.0836E-05
2.7216E-05
2.1386E-05
2.9410E-05
2.2807E-05
2.2992E-05
3.2609E-05
2.6224E-05
2.0338E-05
4.5597E-05
4.6653E-05
7.8196E-05
3.1174E-05
3.9311E-05
2.7539E-05
2.1732E-05

2.3340E-05
2.4314E-05
2.5287E-05
2.6261E-05
2.7235E-05
2.8208E-05
2.9182E-05
3.0155E-05
3.1129E-05
3.2103E-05
3.3076E-05
3.4050E-05
3.5023E-05
3.5997E-05
3.6971E-05
3.7944E-05
3.8918E-05
3.9891E-05

7.6609E-13
1.1998E-11
3.0786E-11
9.1141E-13
3.4206E-11
1.4453E-12
4.0632E-11
5.1317E-11
2.1893E-12
3.4563E-11
1.6227E-10
1.3334E-10
1.3525E-10
1.7808E-09
3.3604E-11
1.8675E-12
1.2948E-10
3.2976E-10

2,398,217
46,686,992
50,633,250
1,784,243
100,832,313
2,099,880
91,724,593
106,753,095
2,124,779
48,770,081
358,611,647
55,316,864
50,659,841
224,751,405
25,298,491
839,341
112,722,637
438,762,797

-1,549
6,833
-7,116
-1,336
10,042
-1,449
9,577
10,332
-1,458
6,984
18,937
-7,438
-7,118
-14,992
5,030
-916
10,617
20,947

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, Ln (1/NESE)
Error de estimacin NESE

2.2367E-05
9.7361E-07
13.61%
1.3498E-05
10,371

Modelo raz cuadrada de Y: (NESE)^0.5 = A + B*(Ao)

Puntos
atpicos
(-2 , +2)
-0.149
0.659
-0.686
-0.129
0.968
-0.140
0.924
0.996
-0.141
0.673
1.826
-0.717
-0.686
-1.446
0.485
-0.088
1.024
2.020

(NESE
real)^0.5

(NESE
modelo)^0.5

Error de
(NESE)^0.5

Error de
NESE

203.2
219.0
180.1
191.7
216.2
184.4
209.4
208.6
175.1
195.3
221.7
148.1
146.4
113.1
179.1
159.5
190.6
214.5

204.7
202.6
200.4
198.3
196.1
194.0
191.8
189.7
187.5
185.4
183.2
181.1
178.9
176.8
174.6
172.5
170.3
168.2

2.216
270.509
413.051
43.188
405.220
91.507
309.048
356.719
153.684
98.223
1,484.121
1,087.624
1,057.327
4,056.249
20.053
168.576
409.192
2,146.422

368,805
48,072,067
59,798,068
6,567,006
68,900,232
13,099,488
49,746,106
56,566,942
20,210,060
14,231,617
243,388,516
117,842,107
111,906,141
340,800,917
2,509,167
18,577,929
53,292,902
314,348,924

A
B
R
Error de estimacin, (NESE)^0.5
Error de estimacin NESE

Puntos
Residual atpicos
(-2 , +2)
-607
-0.062
6,933
0.707
-7,733
-0.788
-2,563
-0.261
8,301
0.846
-3,619
-0.369
7,053
0.719
7,521
0.767
-4,496
-0.458
3,772
0.384
15,601
1.590
-10,856 -1.106
-10,579 -1.078
-18,461 -1.882
1,584
0.161
-4,310
-0.439
7,300
0.744
17,730
1.807
206.9
-2.148
15.10%
28.03
9,811

Modelo recproco en Y

Modelo raz cuadrada de Y

NESE = 1 / [ 2.2367E-05 + ( 9.7361E-07 ) * (Ao)]

NESE = [ 206.9 + (- 2.148 ) * (Ao)]

Modelo
elegido
Raz cuadrada
de Y
41,903
41,028
40,163
39,306
38,459
37,621
36,792
35,973
35,162
34,361
33,569
32,787
32,013
31,249
30,494
29,749
29,012
28,285

25,000
20,000

Residual = NESE real - NESE modelo

15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0

10

12

14

16

-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
-25,000

Ao - 1988
Modelo lineal: NESE = A + B * (Ao)

Modelo logartmico en Y: log10(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo potencial: log10(NESE) = A + B*log10(Ao)

Modelo exponencial: Ln(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo recproco en Y: (1 / NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo raz cuadrada de Y: (NESE)^0.5 = A + B*(Ao)

18

20

3. Proyeccin del trnsito para el diseo estructural de pavimentos

Modelo de proyeccin:

Raz cuadrada de
NESE

Confiabilidad

70%

Ao

Ao
Variable X

NESE futuro. R = 50%

Error del
pronstico

Correccin

NESE futuro. R = 70%

2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034

27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

22,172
21,537
20,911
20,295
19,687
19,089
18,500
17,921
17,350
16,789
16,237
15,694
15,161
14,636
14,121
13,615
13,118
12,631
12,153
11,684

12,746
13,024
13,310
13,606
13,909
14,220
14,537
14,862
15,192
15,529
15,870
16,217
16,569
16,925
17,285
17,649
18,016
18,388
18,762
19,139

6,684
6,830
6,980
7,135
7,294
7,457
7,623
7,794
7,967
8,143
8,322
8,504
8,689
8,875
9,064
9,255
9,448
9,642
9,839
10,037

28,856
28,367
27,891
27,430
26,981
26,546
26,124
25,714
25,317
24,932
24,559
24,198
23,849
23,511
23,185
22,870
22,566
22,273
21,992
21,721

Periodo de diseo estructural (aos)

5
10
12
15
20

NESE acumulado
R = 50%
R = 70%
104,604
139,526
194,253
268,159
226,184
316,917
270,102
387,462
333,303
498,884

1.0
0.9
0.8

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

0.0
30,000

Residual = NESE real - NESE modelo

Modelo lineal:
NESE = A + B * (Ao)
Modelo exponencial:
Ln(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo logartmico en Y:
log10(NESE) = A + B*(Ao)
Modelo recproco en Y:
(1 / NESE) = A + B*(Ao)

Modelo potencial:
log10(NESE) = A + B*log10(Ao)
Modelo raz cuadrada de Y:
(NESE)^0.5 = A + B*(Ao)

Probabilidad acumulada

0.7

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.382944986
0.146646862
0.093312291
9801.887745
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Ao

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
264169951.5
1537232054
1801402005

Coeficientes
42598.1545
-738.4053209

Error tpico
4820.197921
445.3103957

Pronstico NESE real

41859.74918
41121.34386
40382.93853
39644.53321
38906.12789
38167.72257
37429.31725
36690.91193
35952.50661
35214.10129
34475.69597
33737.29065
32998.88533
32260.48
31522.07468
30783.66936
30045.26404
29306.85872

Residuos
-563.7534622
6840.412216
-7953.209963
-2900.973928
7853.422464
-4166.1215
6415.916678
6802.78007
-5285.793216
2919.565712
14694.54643
-11806.09879
-11564.14822
-19472.13143
556.1693168
-5345.375005
6266.96953
16707.8231

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

264169951.5
96077003.36

F
2.749564852

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
8.837428502
1.4893E-07
-1.658181188 0.116753561

Valor crtico de F
0.116753561

Inferior 95%

Superior 95%
32379.79138 52816.51761
-1682.421189 205.6105467

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
-0.059284883
0.719344651
-0.836367585
-0.305069346
0.825873831
-0.438113541
0.674704272
0.715387217
-0.555859349
0.307024476
1.545293331
-1.241541262
-1.216097496
-2.047708991
0.058487327
-0.56212503
0.65904084
1.757011537

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

NESE real
12788.34857
21434.73711
21931.19186
25438.29436
30666.71339
32078.244
32429.72857
34001.60107
36312.23357
36743.55929
38133.667
41295.99571
43493.692
43845.23393
46014.68182
46759.55036
47961.75607
49170.24239

Ao Curva de regresin ajustada

60,000
NESE real

50,000
40,000
30,000

NESE real

20,000

Pronstico NESE real

10,000
0
0

10

15

20

Ao

Ao Grfico de los residuales

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

32379.79138
52816.51761
-1682.421189
205.6105467

20000
Residuos

10000
0
-10000

10

15

-20000
-30000

Ao

NESE real

Grfico de probabilidad normal

60000
40000
20000
0
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

ajustada

NESE real
Pronstico NESE real

duales

20

normal

100

120

Clase
Frecuencia % acumulado
Clase
Frecuencia % acumulado
-20,000
0
0.00%
10,000
5
27.78%
-15,000
1
5.56%
-5,000
3
44.44%
-10,000
2
16.67%
0
3
61.11%
-5,000
3
33.33%
-10,000
2
72.22%
0
3
50.00%
5,000
2
83.33%
5,000
2
61.11%
-15,000
1
88.89%
10,000
5
88.89%
15,000
1
94.44%
15,000
1
94.44%
20,000
1
100.00%
20,000
1
100.00%
-20,000
0
100.00%
25,000
0
100.00%
25,000
0
100.00%
y mayor...
0
100.00% y mayor...
0
100.00%

Frecuencia

Histograma
6
4
2
0

150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%

Frecuencia
% acumulado

Clase

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.388553029
0.150973456
0.097909297
0.144817256
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Ao

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
0.059667789
0.335552603
0.395220392

Coeficientes
4.634757241
-0.011097447

Error tpico
0.071215653
0.006579205

Pronstico log10
(NESE real)
4.623659794
4.612562347
4.6014649
4.590367453
4.579270006
4.568172559
4.557075112
4.545977664
4.534880217
4.52378277
4.512685323
4.501587876
4.490490429
4.479392982
4.468295535
4.457198088
4.446100641
4.435003194

Residuos
-0.007751852
0.068332729
-0.090521586
-0.025186229
0.090600321
-0.036673191
0.08484728
0.09244861
-0.048212983
0.057525799
0.179017026
-0.160525642
-0.159372268
-0.372578517
0.037915051
-0.0517101
0.113952322
0.227893229

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

0.059667789
0.020972038

F
2.845111641

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
65.08059729 7.91519E-21
-1.686745873 0.111048592

Valor crtico de F
0.111048592

Inferior 95%

Superior 95%
4.4837868 4.785727681
-0.025044739 0.002849845

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
-0.055175922
0.48637688
-0.644312131
-0.179269871
0.644872548
-0.261031461
0.603923708
0.658028254
-0.343169086
0.409455601
1.274202615
-1.142585138
-1.134375681
-2.651929438
0.269870741
-0.368060771
0.8110868
1.622092352

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

log10
(NESE real)
4.106814465
4.331118161
4.341062234
4.405487988
4.486667234
4.506210586
4.510943314
4.531499368
4.560052963
4.565181223
4.58130857
4.615907942
4.638426275
4.641922392
4.662896423
4.669870326
4.680895076
4.691702349

log10
(NESE real)

Ao Curva de regresin ajustada

4.800
4.600
4.400
4.200
4.000

log10
(NESE real)
0

10

15

Pronstico log10
(NESE real)

20

Ao

Ao Grfico de los residuales

0.2
0
-0.2 0

10

15

-0.4
-0.6

Ao

Grfico de probabilidad normal

log10
(NESE real)

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

4.4837868
4.785727681
-0.025044739
0.002849845

Residuos

0.4

4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

justada
log10
(NESE real)
Pronstico log10
(NESE real)

20

normal

100

120

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.384095885
0.147529649
0.094250252
0.145110662
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
log10
(Ao)

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
0.058306726
0.336913666
0.395220392

Coeficientes
4.677011139

Error tpico
0.0951111

-0.16817514

0.101065236

Pronstico log10
(NESE real)
4.677011139
4.626385378
4.596771205
4.575759616
4.559461761
4.546145444
4.534886658
4.525133854
4.516531272
4.508835999
4.501874778
4.495519682
4.48967356
4.484260896
4.479221827
4.474508092
4.470080219
4.46590551

Residuos
-0.061103197
0.054509698
-0.085827892
-0.010578393
0.110408565
-0.014646076
0.107035734
0.113292421
-0.029864037
0.072472571
0.189827571
-0.154457448
-0.158555399
-0.377446431
0.02698876
-0.069020104
0.089972744
0.196990914

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

0.058306726
0.021057104

F
2.768981207

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
49.17418806 6.86472E-19
-1.664025603

Valor crtico de F
0.115566191

Inferior 95%

0.115566191

Superior 95%
4.475384614 4.878637665
-0.38242387

0.046073589

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
-0.434039329
0.387203189
-0.609668268
-0.075142359
0.784274174
-0.104036668
0.760315662
0.804759297
-0.212135653
0.514800326
1.348417676
-1.097170195
-1.126279503
-2.681146038
0.191711458
-0.490276138
0.639110734
1.399301634

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

log10
(NESE real)
4.106814465
4.331118161
4.341062234
4.405487988
4.486667234
4.506210586
4.510943314
4.531499368
4.560052963
4.565181223
4.58130857
4.615907942
4.638426275
4.641922392
4.662896423
4.669870326
4.680895076
4.691702349

log10
(NESE real)

log10
(Ao) Curva de regresin ajustada
5.000
log10
(NESE real)

4.000
0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

log10
(Ao)

Pronstico log10
(NESE real)

-0.38242387

0.046073589

1
0
0.0000
-1

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

log10
(Ao)

Grfico de probabilidad normal

log10
(NESE real)

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

4.475384614
4.878637665

Residuos

log10
(Ao) Grfico de los residuales

4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

justada
log10
(NESE real)
Pronstico log10
(NESE real)

duales
1.2000

1.4000

normal

100

120

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.388553029
0.150973456
0.097909297
0.333454055
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Ao

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
0.316352536
1.779065713
2.095418248

Coeficientes
10.67192293
-0.025552816

Error tpico
0.163980101
0.01514918

Pronstico Ln
(NESE real)
10.64637012
10.6208173
10.59526448
10.56971167
10.54415885
10.51860604
10.49305322
10.4675004
10.44194759
10.41639477
10.39084196
10.36528914
10.33973632
10.31418351
10.28863069
10.26307787
10.23752506
10.21197224

Residuos
-0.017849298
0.157341924
-0.208433654
-0.057993436
0.208614948
-0.084443143
0.195368082
0.212870792
-0.111014496
0.132458048
0.412201935
-0.369623951
-0.366968209
-0.857893739
0.087302632
-0.119066905
0.262384918
0.524743552

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

0.316352536
0.111191607

F
2.845111641

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
65.08059729 7.91519E-21
-1.686745873 0.111048592

Valor crtico de F
0.111048592

Inferior 95%

Superior 95%
10.32430065 11.01954522
-0.057667642
0.00656201

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
-0.055175922
0.48637688
-0.644312131
-0.179269871
0.644872548
-0.261031461
0.603923708
0.658028254
-0.343169086
0.409455601
1.274202615
-1.142585138
-1.134375681
-2.651929438
0.269870741
-0.368060771
0.8110868
1.622092352

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

Ln
(NESE real)
9.456289768
9.972768114
9.995665188
10.14401097
10.33093309
10.37593332
10.38683083
10.43416289
10.49990998
10.51171823
10.54885282
10.62852082
10.6803712
10.6884213
10.73671579
10.7527738
10.77815922
10.80304389

Ln
(NESE real)

Ao Curva de regresin ajustada

11.000
10.500
10.000
9.500
9.000

Ln
(NESE real)
0

10

15

20

Pronstico Ln
(NESE real)

Ao

Ao Grfico de los residuales

Residuos

1
0.5
0
-0.5

10

-1

15

Ao

Grfico de probabilidad normal

Ln
(NESE real)

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

10.32430065
11.01954522
-0.057667642
0.00656201

11
10.5
10
9.5
9
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

ustada
Ln
(NESE real)
Pronstico Ln
(NESE real)

duales

20

normal

100

120

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.368918719
0.136101021
0.082107335
1.34981E-05
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Ao

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
4.59262E-10
2.91516E-09
3.37442E-09

Coeficientes
2.23666E-05
9.73607E-07

Error tpico
6.63783E-06
6.13231E-07

Pronstico 1 / NESE real

2.33402E-05
2.43138E-05
2.52874E-05
2.6261E-05
2.72346E-05
2.82082E-05
2.91818E-05
3.01554E-05
3.1129E-05
3.21026E-05
3.30762E-05
3.40498E-05
3.50234E-05
3.5997E-05
3.69706E-05
3.79443E-05
3.89179E-05
3.98915E-05

Residuos
8.75266E-07
-3.46382E-06
5.54853E-06
9.54677E-07
-5.84858E-06
1.20219E-06
-6.3743E-06
-7.16356E-06
1.47964E-06
-5.87907E-06
-1.27387E-05
1.15473E-05
1.16298E-05
4.21991E-05
-5.79687E-06
1.36656E-06
-1.13789E-05
-1.81593E-05

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

4.59262E-10
1.82197E-10

F
2.520684012

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
3.369555834 0.003902962
1.587666216 0.131924758

Valor crtico de F
0.131924758

Inferior 95%

Superior 95%
8.29497E-06 3.64381E-05
-3.26386E-07
2.2736E-06

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
0.066839524
-0.264513796
0.42371274
0.072903759
-0.446625526
0.091804999
-0.486772234
-0.54704414
0.112992139
-0.448954023
-0.972789838
0.881809458
0.888107979
3.222529003
-0.44267711
0.104356767
-0.868950135
-1.386729566

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

1 / NESE real
2.03375E-05
2.08499E-05
2.1386E-05
2.17322E-05
2.28075E-05
2.29918E-05
2.42154E-05
2.62235E-05
2.72157E-05
2.75389E-05
2.94104E-05
3.08359E-05
3.11738E-05
3.26086E-05
3.93108E-05
4.55972E-05
4.66532E-05
7.81962E-05

1 / NESE real

Ao Curva de regresin ajustada

1.0000E-04
5.0000E-05

1 / NESE real
Pronstico 1 / NESE real

0.0000E+00
0

10

15

20

Ao

Ao Grfico de los residuales

0.00004
0.00002
0
-0.00002 0

10

-0.00004

15

Ao

Grfico de probabilidad normal

1 / NESE real

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

8.29497E-06
3.64381E-05
-3.26386E-07
2.2736E-06

Residuos

0.00006

0.0001
0.00005
0
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

100

ustada

1 / NESE real
Pronstico 1 / NESE real

20

normal

100

120

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2
R^2 ajustado
Error tpico
Observaciones

0.388587763
0.15100045
0.097937978
28.03226721
18

ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Regresin
Residuos
Total

Intercepcin
Ao

1
16
17

Suma de cuadrados
2236.182331
12572.92808
14809.11041

Coeficientes
206.8512865
-2.148358305

Error tpico
13.78520951
1.273536315

Pronstico (NESE real)^0.5

204.7029282
202.5545699
200.4062116
198.2578533
196.109495
193.9611367
191.8127784
189.6644201
187.5160618
185.3677035
183.2193452
181.0709868
178.9226285
176.7742702
174.6259119
172.4775536
170.3291953
168.180837

Residuos
-1.48876602
16.44715628
-20.32365117
-6.571757591
20.13007206
-9.565906073
17.57975714
18.88699325
-12.3969212
9.910731088
38.524296
-32.97915096
-32.51655932
-63.6886895
4.478091372
-12.98368429
20.2284956
46.32949332

Anlisis de los residuales

Observacin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Promedio de los cuadrados

2236.182331
785.8080047

F
2.845710807

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
15.00530597 7.60037E-11
-1.686923474 0.111013888

Valor crtico de F
0.111013888

Inferior 95%
177.6279478
-4.848134689

Superior 95%
236.0746252
0.551418078

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Residuos estndares
-0.054743517
0.604779504
-0.747322361
-0.241650546
0.740204251
-0.351748584
0.646426447
0.694494915
-0.455848034
0.364428168
1.416579512
-1.212678606
-1.195668617
-2.341901139
0.164664203
-0.477423939
0.743823389
1.703584954

Percentil
2.777777778
8.333333333
13.88888889
19.44444444
25
30.55555556
36.11111111
41.66666667
47.22222222
52.77777778
58.33333333
63.88888889
69.44444444
75
80.55555556
86.11111111
91.66666667
97.22222222

(NESE real)^0.5
113.0855807
146.4060692
148.0918359
159.4938693
175.1191406
179.1040033
180.0825604
184.3952306
190.5576909
191.6860957
195.2784345
203.2141622
208.5514133
209.3925355
214.5103303
216.239567
219.0017262
221.7436412

(NESE real)^0.5

Ao Curva de regresin ajustada

300.0
200.0
(NESE real)^0.5

100.0

Pronstico (NESE real)^0.5

0.0
0

10

15

20

Ao

Ao Grfico de los residuales

Residuos

100
50
0
-50

10

-100

15

Ao

Grfico de probabilidad normal

(NESE real)^0.5

Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

177.6279478
236.0746252
-4.848134689
0.551418078

300
200
100
0
0

20

40

60
Muestra percentil

80

n ajustada

(NESE real)^0.5
Pronstico (NESE real)^0.5

siduales

15

20

ad normal

100

120

Distribucin normal acumulativa

Confiabilidad R (%)
50
60
70
75
80
85
87.5
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
99.9
99.99
99.999

0.0000
0.2533
0.5244
0.6745
0.8416
1.0364
1.1503
1.2816
1.3408
1.4051
1.4758
1.5548
1.6449
1.7507
1.8808
2.0537
2.3263
3.0902
3.7190
4.2649