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Capitulo2 PDF
Capitulo2 PDF
REGRESION:
Yi = 1 + 2 Xi + Ui
VARIACION DE Y ANTE
CAMBIOS EN X2 (PENDIENTE)
Y
,
X
SI U=0
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
TERMINO DE ERROR O
PERTURBACION ALEATORIA
(COMPONENTE NO SISTEMATICO):
OMISIONES, ERRORES DE MEDIDA,
VARIABLES NO OBSERVADAS O NO
DISPONIBLES. SE ASUME QUE
TODOS LOS FACTORES DISTINTOS
DE X QUE AFECTAN A Y SON NO
OBSERVABLES (UNOBSERVABLES)
Captulo 2.1
o E (U / X) = E (U) = 0
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
(FRP)
Captulo 2.2
E(Y/X)
80
55
60
65
70
75
100
65
70
74
80
85
88
120
79
84
90
94
98
65
77
89
140
80
93
95
103
108
113
115
101
WEEKLY
CONSUMPTION (Y)
150
100
50
0
60
80
100
120
140
Captulo 2.3
E (Y / Xi) = 1 + 2 Xi
COMPONENTE ESTOCASTICO
(NO SISTEMATICO)
ERRORES DE MEDIDA
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
Captulo 2.4
FRM
ESTIMADORES
(1)
RESIDUO
FRM
Yi
ERROR DE
PREDICCION
u i
VALOR OBSERVADO
VALOR ESTIMADO
RECTA DE REGRESION
MUESTRAL
Xi
Xi +
u i .
Captulo 2.5
INFERENCIA
FRP
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
Captulo 2.6
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
CONS
DATOS
CONS
10057.00
11510.00
11989.00
10776.00
13839.00
12843.00
12388.00
13235.00
16948.00
18493.00
14722.00
24974.00
39081.00
37985.00
33899.00
33423.00
37945.00
48218.00
53278.00
58252.00
73352.00
92953.00
71390.00
75203.00
67580.00
74691.00
82882.00
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
DIAGRAMA DE DISPERSION
PIB
31149.00
35251.00
37453.00
39679.00
36862.00
39129.00
32761.00
35600.00
50483.00
62174.00
70423.00
84536.00
99927.00
98421.00
100659.0
112863.0
119652.0
123357.0
136997.0
149025.0
177436.0
203206.0
184794.0
189501.0
187156.0
188892.0
203166.0
700000
600000
500000
400000
PIB
AO
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
300000
200000
100000
0
0
Captulo 2.7
CONSt = 1 + 2 PIBt + u t
Dependent Variable: CONS
Method: Least Squares
Sample: 1936 2003
Included observations: 68
Variable
Coefficient
Prob.
= -29593.06
5952.795 -4.971288
0.0000
PIB
= 0.595216
0.016261
0.0000
0.953055
0.952344
25596.69
4.32E+10
-785.6877
0.276328
CONSUMO
ESTIMADO
A PARTIR
DE FRM
Actual
10057.0
11510.0
11989.0
10776.0
13839.0
12843.0
12388.0
13235.0
16948.0
18493.0
14722.0
24974.0
39081.0
37985.0
33899.0
33423.0
37945.0
48218.0
53278.0
58252.0
73352.0
92953.0
71390.0
75203.0
67580.0
74691.0
82882.0
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
Fitted
-11052.7
-8611.11
-7300.44
-5975.49
-7652.21
-6302.86
-10093.2
-8403.38
455.219
7413.89
12323.8
20724.1
29885.1
28988.7
30320.8
37584.8
41625.7
43831.0
51949.7
59109.0
76019.6
91358.4
80399.2
83200.9
81805.1
82838.4
91334.5
36.60472
156338.1
117253.1
23.16728
23.23256
1339.906
0.000000
ERROR
RESULTADOS
obs
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
t-Statistic
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
CONSUMO
ORIGINAL
Std. Error
Residual
21109.7
20121.1
19289.4
16751.5
21491.2
19145.9
22481.2
21638.4
16492.8
11079.1
2398.18
4249.90
9195.93
8996.33
3578.23
-4161.78
-3680.70
4387.03
1328.28
-856.970
-2667.65
1594.64
-9009.24
-7997.92
-14225.1
-8147.44
-8452.55
GRAFICAS
400000
300000
200000
80000
100000
40000
0
-100000
0
-40000
-80000
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Residual
Actual
Fitted
Captulo 2.8
CAPACID
60
50
40
30
20
1.E+07
2.E+07
3.E+07
4.E+07
5.E+07
PIBR
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
CAPACID
1755155.
602238.3
2806889.
54276.81
0.625303
11.09568
0.5357
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.773747
0.767463
3511100.
4.44E+14
-625.6071
0.329229
32251550
7281097.
33.03195
33.11814
123.1142
0.000000
4.50E+07
4.00E+07
3.50E+07
3.00E+07
8.00E+06
2.50E+07
4.00E+06
2.00E+07
0.00E+00
1.50E+07
-4.00E+06
-8.00E+06
-1.20E+07
1970
1975
1980
Residual
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
1985
1990
Actual
1995
2000
Fitted
Captulo 2.9
1992
1994
1996
1998
M2
2000
2002
2004
PP
80000
70000
60000
PP
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
M2
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
PP
2761.646
0.554129
321.1636
0.015483
8.598877
35.78966
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.878593
0.877907
3432.490
2.09E+09
-1710.231
0.656554
9676.084
9823.431
19.13107
19.16668
1280.900
0.000000
M2 = 2761.64624 + 0.5541287888*PP
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
Captulo 2.10
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
-5000
-10000
1990
1992
1994
1996
Residual
1998
2000
Actual
2002
2004
Fitted
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
EDAD
51885.60
1048.326
936.5533
24.67483
55.40059
42.48564
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
0.011199
0.011193
122350.4
2.39E+15
-2093177.
1.387141
89484.93
123041.0
26.26718
26.26730
1805.030
0.000000
Captulo 2.11
SITUPS
200
160
120
80
40
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
W EIGHT
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
SITUPS
206.9218
-0.194584
12.77006
0.080921
16.20366
-2.404621
0.0000
0.0272
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.243131
0.201083
22.06890
8766.657
-89.20856
2.128963
178.6000
24.69051
9.120856
9.220429
5.782202
0.027168
260
240
220
200
180
60
160
40
140
120
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2
Residual
10
12
Actual
14
16
18
20
Fitted
Captulo 2.12
280
240
JUMPS
200
160
120
80
40
0
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
WEIGHT
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
JUMPS
186.2601
-0.108963
9.535396
0.110548
19.53355
-0.985660
0.0000
0.3374
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.051210
-0.001501
24.70903
10989.65
-91.46854
1.687251
178.6000
24.69051
9.346854
9.446427
0.971526
0.337365
260
240
220
200
180
80
160
60
140
40
120
20
0
-20
-40
-60
2
Residual
J. Ramoni Perazzi
Econometra I
10
12
Actual
14
16
18
20
Fitted
Captulo 2.13