Plantila Pronóstico Tempomatic

JUEGOS GERENCIALES
PRONOSTICOS TEMPOMATIC
Leidy Maryury Garzón Forero
Jose Leonardo Montealegre

Docente
Universidad del Tolima

IDEAD
Administración Financiera
Taller 1
IX semestre
Honda – Tolima
2023
EJERCICIO 1. LAS CUENTAS POR COBRAR del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valore
identificación del comportamiento.
DETERMINE:
ni Xi 1. Las Caracteristicas y compenentes de la serie de tiempo
Trimestre 1 466,257 Establezca el VALOR FUTURO bajo los métodos de:
Trimestre 2 549,227 a) Ultimo Valor
Trimestre 3 572,979 b) Promedio Simple.
C) Prommedio Movil para n= 2, 4 y 5
Trimestre 4 650,882 d) Suavización Exponencial para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α
e) Regresión Lineal.
Trimestre 5 714,342
3) Una vez calculado el valor futuro por cada método esta
Trimestre 6 798,530
a) Desviación Absoluta media (DAM)
Trimestre 7 772,933 b) Error medio Cuadrado (EMC)
Trimestre 8 789,992 c) Porcentaje de error absoluto (PEMA)
Trimestre 9 d) Porcentaje medio de error (PME)
Periodos Demanda
Error Mensuales millones
Errores al cuadrado Absoluto
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 466,257
6,884,020,900 82970 Trimestre 2 549,227
564,157,504 23752 Trimestre 3 572,979
6,068,877,409 77903 Trimestre 4 650,882
4,027,171,600 63460 Trimestre 5 714,342
7,087,619,344 84188 Trimestre 6 798,530
655,206,409 25597 Trimestre 7 772,933
291,009,481 17059 Trimestre 8 789,992
Trimestre 9
25,578,062,647 374929
- INTERPRETACIÓN DAM: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en Último Valor

unidades.
Promedio Simple
- INTERPRETACIÓN EMC: Compara métodos diferentes de
pronostico, penaliza los errores grandes del pronóstico.
- INTERPRETACIÓN PEMA: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en

porcentajes. ( Escoger el menor valor)
- INTERPRETACIÓN DAM: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en
unidades.

pronostico, penaliza los errores grandes del pronóstico. Suavización Exp. Alga=0,3
- INTERPRETACIÓN PEMA: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en Suavización Exp. Alga=0,5
Suavización Exp. Alga=0,7

- INTERPRETACIÓN PME: Indica cuan esta desviada esta la tecnica
de pronostico usada. -Si tiende a 0, no hay sesgo -Si es
positivo grande el pronóstico sera subestimado -Si es negativo Promedio Móvil n=2
grande el pronóstico sera sobreestimado
Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
rta los siguientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
entes de la serie de tiempo (Estacionalidad, Ciclicidad, Aleatoriedad, Tendencia) por medio de la gráfica correspondientes.
RO bajo los métodos de:
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
turo por cada método establecer cual se ajusta a los minimos errores por medio de:.
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
Pronostico Error DAM EMC PEMA
466,257 82,970 82970 6,884,020,900 15.11%

549,227 23,752 23752 564,157,504 4.15%
572,979 77,903 77903 6,068,877,409 11.97%
650,882 63,460 63460 4,027,171,600 8.88%
714,342 84,188 84188 7,087,619,344 10.54%
798,530 -25,597 25597 655,206,409 3.31%
772,933 17,059 17059 291,009,481 2.16%
789,992 46247.9 53561.3 3654008949.6 8.02%
DAM EMC PEMA PME pronóstico
53561 3654008950 8.02% 7.07% 789,992
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

122620 16577570058 17.57% 17.57% 723,760
86760 8828543344 12.73% 12.73% 769,918
64879 5572465796 9.72% 9.72% 784,166
65684 6088589323 9.45% 9.45% 781,463
118937 16519404369 15.58% 15.58% 768,949
137197 21442698651 17.38% 17.38% 768,949
26129 978844330 3.83% -0.28% 885,364
el método "Regresión L
términos de minimizar
DAM, EMC, PEMA, PME
e la gráfica correspondientes.
PME
Errores al cuadrado Error Absoluto
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.11% 6884020900 82970

4.15% 6696312561 81831
11.97% 18274903114 135185
8.88% 24992223613 158089
10.54% 37966718519 194851
-3.31% 12276274828 110798
2.16% 8952536871 94618
7.07% 15035723663 122620
116042990406 858342
Cuentas x cobrar
900,000
800,000 798,530 789,992

772,933
x cobrar ($)
714,342
700,000
650,882
Cuentas x cobrar
900,000
800,000 798,530 789,992

772,933
Cuentas x cobrar ($) 700,000

714,342
650,882
600,000
572,979
549,227
500,000
466,257
400,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Trimestre (t)
el método "Regresión Lineal" es el mejor en

términos de minimizar todas las métricas:
DAM, EMC, PEMA, PME y Pronóstico
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Error mensuales millones a= 0.3 a=
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 466,257
6884020900 82970 Trimestre 2 549,227 466,257 466,257
4255866169 65237 Trimestre 3 572,979 491,148 507,742
12215001962 110522 Trimestre 4 650,882 515,697 540,361
14094616481 118721 Trimestre 5 714,342 556,253 595,621
20606135965 143548 Trimestre 6 798,530 603,679 654,982
2132332645 46177 Trimestre 7 772,933 662,135 726,756
1611829284 40148 Trimestre 8 789,992 695,374 749,844
7527357248 86760 Trimestre 9 723,760 769,918
61799803406 607322
798,530 789,992
772,933
14,342
r
798,530 789,992
772,933
14,342
6 7 8 9 10
Suavización Exponen
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
466,257 466,257 82,970 82,970 82,970 82,970

507,742 524,336 81,831 65,237 48,643 81,831
540,361 558,386 135,185 110,522 92,496 135,185
595,621 623,133 158,089 118,721 91,209 158,089
654,982 686,979 194,851 143,548 111,551 194,851
726,756 765,065 110,798 46,177 7,868 110,798
749,844 770,573 94,618 40,148 19,419 94,618
769,918 784,166 122,620 86,760 64,879 122620.2
Suavización Exponencial
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
82,970 82,970 6884020900.00 6884020900.00 6884020900.00

65,237 48,643 6696312561.00 4255866169.00 2366141449.00
110,522 92,496 18274903114.09 12215001962.25 8555491516.81
118,721 91,209 24992223612.70 14094616480.56 8319039724.91
143,548 111,551 37966718519.35 20606135965.14 12443543276.50
46,177 7,868 12276274828.08 2132332645.41 61908402.86
40,148 19,419 8952536870.62 1611829283.92 377115302.02
86,760 64,879 16577570057.98 8828543343.75 5572465796.01
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

14% 11% 8% 14% 11% 8%
21% 17% 14% 21% 17% 14%
22% 17% 13% 22% 17% 13%
24% 18% 14% 24% 18% 14%
14% 6% 1% 14% 6% 1%
12% 5% 2% 12% 5% 2%
18% 13% 10% 18% 13% 10%
Errores al Error Absoluto
periodos mensuales periodo (X)
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
690091009 26270 2
57696141 7596 3
315304707 17757 4
121916037 11042 5
645004586 25397 6
3657869280 60480 7
202245306 14221 8
2140627578 46267 9
7830754643.40476 125385 36
B=
A=
B= 49104.6
A= 443422.0
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
Demanda millones (Y) X*Y X² Error
(Y=A+B(x))
466,257 466,257 1 492527 -26270

549,227 1,098,454 4 541631 7596
572,979 1,718,937 9 590736 -17757
650,882 2,603,528 16 639840 11042
714,342 3,571,710 25 688945 25397
798,530 4,791,180 36 738050 60480
772,933 5,410,531 49 787154 -14221
789,992 6,319,936 64 836259 -46267
885364
5,315,142 25,980,533 204 688,945 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
26269.58 690091008.51 5.63% -5.63%

7595.80 57696141.47 1.38% 1.38%
17756.82 315304707.25 3.10% -3.10%
11041.56 121916036.72 1.70% 1.70%
25396.94 645004585.55 3.56% 3.56%
60480.32 3657869280.10 7.57% 7.57%
14221.30 202245305.97 1.84% -1.84%
46266.92 2140627577.84 5.86% -5.86%
26128.65 978844330.43 3.83% -0.28%

Promedio moviles n:2
Errores al Error Absoluto periodos Demanda
Pronostico Error
cuadrado (DAM) mensuales millones
ni Xi
1 466,257
2 549,227
4255866169 65237 3 572,979 507742 65237
8060268841 89779 4 650,882 561103 89779
10488115332 102412 5 714,342 611931 102412
13436982724 115918 6 798,530 682612 115918
272151009 16497 7 772,933 756436 16497
18151860 4261 8 789,992 785732 4261
9 781463 65684
36531535935.5 394103
DAM EMC PEMA PME
65237.00 4255866169.00 11.39% 11.39%

89779.00 8060268841.00 13.79% 13.79%
102411.50 10488115332.25 14.34% 14.34%
115918.00 13436982724.00 14.52% 14.52%
16497.00 272151009.00 2.13% 2.13%
4260.50 18151860.25 0.54% 0.54%
65683.8333333 6088589322.58 9.45% 9.45%
Error Absoluto periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado Pronostico Error
(DAM) mensuales millones
ni Xi
1 466,257
2 549,227
3 572,979
4 650,882
23872026783.0625 154506 5 714,342 559836.25 154505.75
31213172256.2500 176673 6 798,530 621857.50 176672.50
7876518125.0625 88750 7 772,933 684183.25 88749.75
3115900310.0625 55820 8 789,992 734171.75 55820.25
14146024836.1289 118937 9 768949.25 118937.06
80223642310.5664 594685.3125
DAM EMC PEMA PME
154505.75 23872026783.06 21.63% 21.63%

176672.50 31213172256.25 22.12% 22.12%
88749.75 7876518125.06 11.48% 11.48%
55820.25 3115900310.06 7.07% 7.07%
118937.06 16519404368.61 15.58% 15.58%
ni Xi
1 466,257
2 549,227
3 572,979
4 650,882
5 714,342
43177764614.7600 207793 6 798,530 590737.40 207792.60
13395979081.0000 115741 7 772,933 657192.00 115741.00
7754352257.4400 88059 8 789,992 701933.20 88058.80
18823144859.7511 137197 9 768949.25 137197.47
83151240812.95 548790
DAM EMC PEMA PME
207792.60 43177764614.76 26.02% 26.02%

115741.00 13395979081.00 14.97% 14.97%
88058.80 7754352257.44 11.15% 11.15%
137197.47 21442698651.07 17.38% 17.38%
EJERCICIO 1. Plantas y equipo al costo equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores para su
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 1 1,000,000 Establezca el VALOR FUTURO bajo los métodos de:
Trimestre 2 1,300,000 a) Ultimo Valor
Trimestre 3 1,300,000 b) Promedio Simple.
Trimestre 4 1,300,000 d) Suavización Exponencial para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α
Trimestre 5 1,520,000
Trimestre 7 1,820,000 b) Error medio Cuadrado (EMC)
Trimestre 8 1,820,000 c) Porcentaje de error absoluto (PEMA)
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
90,000,000,000 300000 Trimestre 2 1,300,000
- 0 Trimestre 3 1,300,000
- 0 Trimestre 4 1,300,000
48,400,000,000 220000 Trimestre 5 1,520,000
90,000,000,000 300000 Trimestre 6 1,820,000
- 0 Trimestre 7 1,820,000
- 0 Trimestre 8 1,820,000
Trimestre 9
228,400,000,000 820000

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
guientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
1,000,000 300,000 300000 90,000,000,000 23.08%

1,300,000 - 0 - 0.00%
1,300,000 - 0 - 0.00%
1,300,000 220,000 220000 48,400,000,000 14.47%
1,520,000 300,000 300000 90,000,000,000 16.48%
1,820,000 - 0 - 0.00%
1,820,000 - 0 - 0.00%
1,820,000 117142.9 117142.9 32628571428.6 7.72%
117143 32628571429 7.72% 7.72% 1,820,000
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

304558 105529308730 19.30% 19.30% 1,639,572
218973 60814801897 14.08% 14.08% 1,766,406
165317 42845062018 10.75% 10.75% 1,810,052
155000 43583333333 9.46% 9.46% 1,820,000
325000 114375000000 18.66% 18.66% 1,745,000
392000 165834666667 21.54% 21.54% 1,745,000
76071 8273809524 5.24% -0.43% 2,027,143
considerando el DAM y
mínimos errores en est
DAM como el EMC son
Regresión Lineal en co
que indica un mejor aju
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
23.08% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
0.00% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
0.00% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
14.47% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
16.48% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
0.00% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
0.00% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
7.72% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Plantas y equipo al costo

2,000,000
1,800,000 1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000

Plantas y equipo al costo $
1,600,000
1,520,000
1,400,000
1,300,000 1,300,000 1,300,000
1,200,000
1,000,000 1,000,000
Plantas y equipo al costo
2,000,000
1,800,000 1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000
Plantas y equipo al costo $

1,600,000
1,520,000
1,400,000
1,300,000 1,300,000 1,300,000
1,200,000
1,000,000 1,000,000
800,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Trimestre (t)
considerando el DAM y el EMC, el método que se ajusta a los

mínimos errores en este caso es la Regresión Lineal. Tanto el
DAM como el EMC son significativamente más bajos en la
Regresión Lineal en comparación con los otros métodos, lo
que indica un mejor ajuste de la regresión lineal a los datos
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000
00
o
1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000
00
6 7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 90000000000 300000

11.32% 44100000000 210000
18.61% 21609000000 147000
21.60% 104264410000 322900
26.00% 276707560900 526030
19.08% 135586704841 368221
18.16% 66437485372 257755
18.57%
738705161113 2131906
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
90000000000 300000 Trimestre 2 1,300,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
22500000000 150000 Trimestre 3 1,300,000 1,090,000 1,150,000
5625000000 75000 Trimestre 4 1,300,000 1,153,000 1,225,000
66306250000 257500 Trimestre 5 1,520,000 1,197,100 1,262,500
183826562500 428750 Trimestre 6 1,820,000 1,293,970 1,391,250
45956640625 214375 Trimestre 7 1,820,000 1,451,779 1,605,625
11489160156 107188 Trimestre 8 1,820,000 1,562,245 1,712,813
Trimestre 9 1,639,572 1,766,406
425703613281 1532813
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
1,000,000 1,000,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000

1,150,000 1,210,000 210,000 150,000 90,000 210,000
1,225,000 1,273,000 147,000 75,000 27,000 147,000
1,262,500 1,291,900 322,900 257,500 228,100 322,900
1,391,250 1,451,570 526,030 428,750 368,430 526,030
1,605,625 1,709,471 368,221 214,375 110,529 368,221
1,712,813 1,786,841 257,755 107,188 33,159 257,755
1,766,406 1,810,052 304,558 218,973 165,317 304558.0
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
300,000 300,000 90000000000.00 90000000000.00 90000000000.00

150,000 90,000 44100000000.00 22500000000.00 8100000000.00
75,000 27,000 21609000000.00 5625000000.00 729000000.00
257,500 228,100 104264410000.00 66306250000.00 52029610000.00
428,750 368,430 276707560900.00 183826562500.00 135740664900.00
214,375 110,529 135586704841.00 45956640625.00 12216659841.00
107,188 33,159 66437485372.09 11489160156.25 1099499385.69
218,973 165,317 105529308730.44 60814801897.32 42845062018.10
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%

16% 12% 7% 16% 12% 7%
11% 6% 2% 11% 6% 2%
21% 17% 15% 21% 17% 15%
29% 24% 20% 29% 24% 20%
20% 12% 6% 20% 12% 6%
14% 6% 2% 14% 6% 2%
19% 14% 11% 19% 14% 11%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
4011111111 63333 2
13500226757 116190 3
18367347 4286 4
15565532880 124762 5
636961451 25238 6
23804081633 154286 7
1143083900 33810 8
7511111111 86667 9
66190476190.4762 481905 36
B=
A=
B= 120476.2
A= 942857.1
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
1,000,000 1,000,000 1 1063333 -63333

1,300,000 2,600,000 4 1183810 116190
1,300,000 3,900,000 9 1304286 -4286
1,300,000 5,200,000 16 1424762 -124762
1,520,000 7,600,000 25 1545238 -25238
1,820,000 10,920,000 36 1665714 154286
1,820,000 12,740,000 49 1786190 33810
1,820,000 14,560,000 64 1906667 -86667
2027143
11,880,000 58,520,000 204 1,545,238 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
63333.33 4011111111.11 6.33% -6.33%

116190.48 13500226757.37 8.94% 8.94%
4285.71 18367346.94 0.33% -0.33%
124761.90 15565532879.82 9.60% -9.60%
25238.10 636961451.25 1.66% -1.66%
154285.71 23804081632.65 8.48% 8.48%
33809.52 1143083900.23 1.86% 1.86%
86666.67 7511111111.11 4.76% -4.76%
76071.43 8273809523.81 5.24% -0.43%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 1,000,000
2 1,300,000
22500000000 150000 3 1,300,000 1150000 150000
0 0 4 1,300,000 1300000 0
48400000000 220000 5 1,520,000 1300000 220000
168100000000 410000 6 1,820,000 1410000 410000
22500000000 150000 7 1,820,000 1670000 150000
0 0 8 1,820,000 1820000 0
9 1820000 155000
261500000000 930000
DAM EMC PEMA PME
150000.00 22500000000.00 11.54% 11.54%

0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00%
220000.00 48400000000.00 14.47% 14.47%
410000.00 168100000000.00 22.53% 22.53%
150000.00 22500000000.00 8.24% 8.24%
0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00%
155000 43583333333.33 9.46% 9.46%
ni Xi
1 1,000,000
2 1,300,000
3 1,300,000
4 1,300,000
87025000000.0000 295000 5 1,520,000 1225000.00 295000.00
216225000000.0000 465000 6 1,820,000 1355000.00 465000.00
112225000000.0000 335000 7 1,820,000 1485000.00 335000.00
42025000000.0000 205000 8 1,820,000 1615000.00 205000.00
105625000000.0000 325000 9 1745000.00 325000.00
563125000000.0000 1625000
DAM EMC PEMA PME
295000.00 87025000000.00 19.41% 19.41%

465000.00 216225000000.00 25.55% 25.55%
335000.00 112225000000.00 18.41% 18.41%
205000.00 42025000000.00 11.26% 11.26%
325000.00 114375000000.00 18.66% 18.66%
ni Xi
1 1,000,000
2 1,300,000
3 1,300,000
4 1,300,000
5 1,520,000
287296000000.0000 536000 6 1,820,000 1284000.00 536000.00
138384000000.0000 372000 7 1,820,000 1448000.00 372000.00
71824000000.0000 268000 8 1,820,000 1552000.00 268000.00
153664000000.0000 392000 9 1745000.00 392000.00
651168000000.00 1568000
DAM EMC PEMA PME
536000.00 287296000000.00 29.45% 29.45%

372000.00 138384000000.00 20.44% 20.44%
268000.00 71824000000.00 14.73% 14.73%
392000.00 165834666666.67 21.54% 21.54%
EJERCICIO 1. Cuentas por pagar equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores para su respe
comportamiento.
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 395,000
Trimestre 6 639,344
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 255,000
3,600,000,000 60000 Trimestre 2 315,000
13,419,600,649 115843 Trimestre 3 199,157
22,626,477,241 150421 Trimestre 4 349,578
2,063,158,084 45422 Trimestre 5 395,000
59,703,990,336 244344 Trimestre 6 639,344
283,207,037,584 532172 Trimestre 7 107,172
1,834,237,584 42828 Trimestre 8 150,000
Trimestre 9
386,454,501,478 1191030

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
es valores para su respectivo analisis e identificación del
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
255,000 60,000 60000 3,600,000,000 19.05%

315,000 -115,843 115843 13,419,600,649 58.17%
199,157 150,421 150421 22,626,477,241 43.03%
349,578 45,422 45422 2,063,158,084 11.50%
395,000 244,344 244344 59,703,990,336 38.22%
639,344 -532,172 532172 283,207,037,584 496.56%
107,172 42,828 42828 1,834,237,584 28.55%
150,000 -15000.0 170147.1 55207785925.4 99.30%
170147 55207785925 99.30% -59.20% 150,000
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

163902 37056050088 80.36% -44.06% 269,475
168775 41367451618 89.04% -54.50% 224,888
167665 45606350044 92.66% -59.39% 177,788
199881 53289980966 112.21% -79.29% 128,586
237837 62904702263 124.44% -84.46% 322,879
265697 74295347429 144.08% -108.98% 322,879
122234 24716815177 53.88% -30.89% 279,416
mínimos errores en est
promedio simple. Tanto
significativamente más
comparación con los o
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
19.05% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
-58.17% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
43.03% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
11.50% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
38.22% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
-496.56% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
28.55% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
-59.20% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Cuentas por pagar

750,000
650,000 639,344
Cuentas por pagar $
550,000
450,000
395,000
350,000 349,578
315,000
250,000 255,000
199,157
150,000 150,000
107,172
Cuentas por pagar
750,000
650,000 639,344
Cuentas por pagar $

550,000
450,000
395,000
350,000 349,578
315,000
250,000 255,000
199,157
150,000 150,000
107,172
50,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Trimestre (t)
considerando el DAM y el EMC, el método que se ajusta a los

mínimos errores en este caso es la Regresión Lineal y el
promedio simple. Tanto el DAM como el EMC son
significativamente más bajos en la estos dos en
comparación con los otros métodos
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
639,344
150,000
107,172
639,344
150,000
107,172
6 7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 3600000000 60000

11.32% 5452788649 73843
18.61% 9747790615 98731
21.60% 13117952401 114534
26.00% 105311634417 324518
19.08% 93030930088 305010
18.16% 29131254446 170679
18.57%
259392350614 1147314
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 255,000
3600000000 60000 Trimestre 2 315,000 255,000 255,000
7369020649 85843 Trimestre 3 199,157 273,000 285,000
11556142500 107500 Trimestre 4 349,578 250,847 242,079
9835035998 99172 Trimestre 5 395,000 280,466 295,828
86394771418 293930 Trimestre 6 639,344 314,826 345,414
148384481000 385207 Trimestre 7 107,172 412,182 492,379
22432709761 149776 Trimestre 8 150,000 320,679 299,776
Trimestre 9 269,475 224,888
289572161326 1181427
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
255,000 255,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000

285,000 297,000 -73,843 -85,843 -97,843 73,843
242,079 228,510 98,731 107,500 121,068 98,731
295,828 313,258 114,534 99,172 81,742 114,534
345,414 370,477 324,518 293,930 268,867 324,518
492,379 558,684 -305,010 -385,207 -451,512 305,010
299,776 242,626 -170,679 -149,776 -92,626 170,679
224,888 177,788 6,893 -8,603 -15,758 163901.9
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
60,000 60,000 3600000000.00 3600000000.00 3600000000.00

85,843 97,843 5452788649.00 7369020649.00 9573252649.00
107,500 121,068 9747790614.81 11556142500.25 14657484837.61
99,172 81,742 13117952400.98 9835035998.06 6681824862.30
293,930 268,867 105311634416.69 86394771417.52 72289317963.16
385,207 451,512 93030930087.50 148384480999.88 203863069257.45
149,776 92,626 29131254445.51 22432709761.22 8579500736.10
168,775 167,665 37056050087.78 41367451617.99 45606350043.66
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

37% 43% 49% -37% -43% -49%
28% 31% 35% 28% 31% 35%
29% 25% 21% 29% 25% 21%
51% 46% 42% 51% 46% 42%
285% 359% 421% -285% -359% -421%
114% 100% 62% -114% -100% -62%
80% 89% 93% -44% -55% -59%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
4005360396 63288 2
2468340 1571 3
11971181123 109413 4
2103792610 45867 5
9244463086 96148 6
119267411873 345351 7
33110113122 181962 8
18029730867 134275 9
197734521416.869 527064 36
B=
A=
B= -4859.0
A= 323146.9
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
255,000 255,000 1 318288 -63288

315,000 630,000 4 313429 1571
199,157 597,471 9 308570 -109413
349,578 1,398,312 16 303711 45867
395,000 1,975,000 25 298852 96148
639,344 3,836,064 36 293993 345351
107,172 750,204 49 289134 -181962
150,000 1,200,000 64 284275 -134275
279416
2,410,251 10,642,051 204 298,852 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
63287.92 4005360396.01 24.82% -24.82%

1571.10 2468340.25 0.50% 0.50%
109412.89 11971181123.37 54.94% -54.94%
45867.12 2103792609.73 13.12% 13.12%
96148.13 9244463085.64 24.34% 24.34%
345351.14 119267411872.73 54.02% 54.02%
181961.85 33110113122.45 169.78% -169.78%
134274.83 18029730866.69 89.52% -89.52%
122234.37 24716815177.11 53.88% -30.89%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 255,000
2 315,000
7369020649 85843 3 199,157 285000 -85843
8556157500 92500 4 349,578 257079 92500
14552200056 120633 5 395,000 274368 120633
71318373025 267055 6 639,344 372289 267055
168100000000 410000 7 107,172 517172 -410000
49844134564 223258 8 150,000 373258 -223258
9 128586 -39819
319739885795 1199288
DAM EMC PEMA PME
85843.00 7369020649.00 43.10% -43.10%

92499.50 8556157500.25 26.46% 26.46%
120632.50 14552200056.25 30.54% 30.54%
267055.00 71318373025.00 41.77% 41.77%
410000.00 168100000000.00 382.56% -382.56%
223258.00 49844134564.00 148.84% -148.84%
199881.333333 53289980965.75 112.21% -79.29%
ni Xi
1 255,000
2 315,000
3 199,157
4 349,578
13297837514.0625 115316 5 395,000 279683.75 115316.25
105404277930.0630 324660 6 639,344 314683.75 324660.25
83288661305.0625 288598 7 107,172 395769.75 -288597.75
49628032302.2500 222774 8 150,000 372773.50 -222773.50
318575645.4727 17849 9 322879.00 -17848.69
251937384696.9100 969196.4375
DAM EMC PEMA PME
115316.25 13297837514.06 29.19% 29.19%

324660.25 105404277930.06 50.78% 50.78%
288597.75 83288661305.06 269.28% -269.28%
222773.50 49628032302.25 148.52% -148.52%
237836.94 62904702262.86 124.44% -84.46%
ni Xi
1 255,000
2 315,000
3 199,157
4 349,578
5 395,000
113297540409.0000 336597 6 639,344 302747.00 336597.00
74225624158.4400 272444 7 107,172 379615.80 -272443.80
35362877720.0400 188050 8 150,000 338050.20 -188050.20
1705607401.0000 41299 9 322879.00 -41299.00
224591649688.48 838390
DAM EMC PEMA PME
336597.00 113297540409.00 52.65% 52.65%

272443.80 74225624158.44 254.21% -254.21%
188050.20 35362877720.04 125.37% -125.37%
265697.00 74295347429.16 144.08% -108.98%
EJERCICIO 1. Los productos termiandos del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores pa
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 63,597
Trimestre 6 19,116
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 32,292
51,437,584 7172 Trimestre 2 39,464
393,347,889 19833 Trimestre 3 59,297
345,662,464 18592 Trimestre 4 40,705
524,043,664 22892 Trimestre 5 63,597
1,978,559,361 44481 Trimestre 6 19,116
45,225,625 6725 Trimestre 7 25,841
3,648,160,000 60400 Trimestre 8 86,241
Trimestre 9
6,986,436,587 180095

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
los siguientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
32,292 7,172 7172 51,437,584 18.17%

39,464 19,833 19833 393,347,889 33.45%
59,297 -18,592 18592 345,662,464 45.67%
40,705 22,892 22892 524,043,664 36.00%
63,597 -44,481 44481 1,978,559,361 232.69%
19,116 6,725 6725 45,225,625 26.02%
25,841 60,400 60400 3,648,160,000 70.04%
86,241 7707.0 25727.9 998062369.6 66.01%
25728 998062370 66.01% -13.53% 86,241
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

21257 681998639 51.61% -7.68% 50,627
22487 768589177 56.01% -12.55% 58,704
23280 863606670 57.81% -13.84% 68,560
26334 1034377241 64.83% -19.89% 56,041
30268 1053938311 82.89% -38.28% 48,699
30360 1036717233 89.94% -55.52% 48,699
16343 403265978 47.13% -24.20% 57,170
El método que se ajust

conjunto de datos es e
Este método tiene los v
como para EMC en com
Si comparamos estos v
métodos, vemos que la
EMC más bajos que va
indica un mejor ajuste
desviación absoluta me
con el método de Suav
EMC son más altos.
Por lo tanto, en base a

método con los mínimo
como Suavización Exp
bajos en estas métricas
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
18.17% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
33.45% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
-45.67% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
36.00% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
-232.69% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
26.02% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
70.04% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
-13.53% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Productos Terminados
100,000
90,000
86,241
80,000
Producros terminados
70,000
63,597
60,000 59,297
50,000
40,000 39,464 40,705
30,000 32,292
25,841
20,000 19,116
10,000
-
Productos Terminados
100,000
90,000
86,241
80,000
Producros terminados
70,000
63,597
60,000 59,297
50,000
40,000 39,464 40,705
30,000 32,292
25,841
20,000 19,116
10,000
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Trimestre (t)
El método que se ajusta a los mínimos errores en este

conjunto de datos es el "Suavización Exponencial α=0,3".
Este método tiene los valores más bajos tanto para DAM
como para EMC en comparación con los otros métodos.
Si comparamos estos valores con los obtenidos en otros

métodos, vemos que la regresión lineal tiene un DAM y un
EMC más bajos que varios de los otros métodos, lo que
indica un mejor ajuste en términos de error medio y
desviación absoluta media. Sin embargo, en comparación
con el método de Suavización Exponencial α=0,3, el DAM y el
EMC son más altos.
Por lo tanto, en base a los valores proporcionados y

considerando el DAM y el EMC, la regresión lineal no es el
método con los mínimos errores, ya que otros métodos
como Suavización Exponencial α=0,3 tienen valores más
bajos en estas métricas.
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
86,241
25,841
19,116
86,241
25,841
19,116
7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 51437584 7172

11.32% 617691492 24853
18.61% 1427117 1195
21.60% 486456814 22056
26.00% 843435661 29042
19.08% 185079010 13604
18.16% 2588462794 50877
18.57%
4773990471 148799
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 32,292
51437584 7172 Trimestre 2 39,464 32,292 32,292
548449561 23419 Trimestre 3 59,297 34,444 35,878
47368806 6883 Trimestre 4 40,705 41,900 47,588
378331676 19451 Trimestre 5 63,597 41,541 44,146
1207953469 34756 Trimestre 6 19,116 48,158 53,872
113482414 10653 Trimestre 7 25,841 39,445 36,494
3033100729 55074 Trimestre 8 86,241 35,364 31,167
Trimestre 9 50,627 58,704
5380124239 157406
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
32,292 32,292 7,172 7,172 7,172 7,172

35,878 37,312 24,853 23,419 21,985 24,853
47,588 52,702 -1,195 -6,883 -11,997 1,195
44,146 44,304 22,056 19,451 19,293 22,056
53,872 57,809 -29,042 -34,756 -38,693 29,042
36,494 30,724 -13,604 -10,653 -4,883 13,604
31,167 27,306 50,877 55,074 58,935 50,877
58,704 68,560 8,731 7,546 7,402 21257.0
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
7,172 7,172 51437584.00 51437584.00 51437584.00

23,419 21,985 617691491.56 548449561.00 483322637.16
6,883 11,997 1427116.94 47368806.25 143918891.42
19,451 19,293 486456813.85 378331675.56 372220389.20
34,756 38,693 843435661.36 1207953469.14 1497155662.59
10,653 4,883 185079009.89 113482414.16 23842993.08
55,074 58,935 2588462793.60 3033100728.54 3473348531.84
22,487 23,280 681998638.74 768589176.95 863606669.90
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18%

42% 39% 37% 42% 39% 37%
3% 17% 29% -3% -17% -29%
35% 31% 30% 35% 31% 30%
152% 182% 202% -152% -182% -202%
53% 41% 19% -53% -41% -19%
59% 64% 68% 59% 64% 68%
52% 56% 58% -8% -13% -14%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
22079818 4699 2
2427 49 3
297955683 17261 4
14845242 3853 5
272801458 16517 6
929435393 30487 7
690848030 26284 8
998159773 31594 9
3226127823.86905 65983 36
B=
A=
B= 2522.3
A= 34468.6
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
32,292 32,292 1 36991 -4699

39,464 78,928 4 39513 -49
59,297 177,891 9 42036 17261
40,705 162,820 16 44558 -3853
63,597 317,985 25 47080 16517
19,116 114,696 36 49603 -30487
25,841 180,887 49 52125 -26284
86,241 689,928 64 54647 31594
57170
366,553 1,755,427 204 47,080 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
4698.92 22079817.84 14.55% -14.55%

49.26 2426.74 0.12% -0.12%
17261.39 297955683.37 29.11% 29.11%
3852.95 14845242.05 9.47% -9.47%
16516.70 272801457.54 25.97% 25.97%
30486.64 929435392.70 159.48% -159.48%
26283.99 690848030.19 101.71% -101.71%
31593.67 998159773.44 36.63% 36.63%
16342.94 403265977.98 47.13% -24.20%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 32,292
2 39,464
548449561 23419 3 59,297 35878 23419
75264300 8676 4 40,705 49381 -8676
184851216 13596 5 63,597 50001 13596
1091311225 33035 6 19,116 52151 -33035
240730740 15516 7 25,841 41357 -15516
4065656406 63763 8 86,241 22479 63763
9 56041 7259
6206263448.75 158003.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
23419.00 548449561.00 39.49% 39.49%

8675.50 75264300.25 21.31% -21.31%
13596.00 184851216.00 21.38% 21.38%
33035.00 1091311225.00 172.81% -172.81%
15515.50 240730740.25 60.04% -60.04%
63762.50 4065656406.25 73.94% 73.94%
26333.9166667 1034377241.46 64.83% -19.89%
ni Xi
1 32,292
2 39,464
3 59,297
4 40,705
426732306.2500 20658 5 63,597 42939.50 20657.50
1001706675.0625 31650 6 19,116 50765.75 -31649.75
393536325.0625 19838 7 25,841 45678.75 -19837.75
2393777939.0625 48926 8 86,241 37314.75 48926.25
20467141.5039 4524 9 48698.75 4524.06
4236220386.9414 125595.3125
DAM EMC PEMA PME
20657.50 426732306.25 32.48% 32.48%

31649.75 1001706675.06 165.57% -165.57%
19837.75 393536325.06 76.77% -76.77%
48926.25 2393777939.06 56.73% 56.73%
30267.81 1053938311.36 82.89% -38.28%
ni Xi
1 32,292
2 39,464
3 59,297
4 40,705
5 63,597
781482025.0000 27955 6 19,116 47071.00 -27955.00
345766587.0400 18595 7 25,841 44435.80 -18594.80
1982903088.0400 44530 8 86,241 41711.20 44529.80
453377.7778 673 9 48698.75 -673.33
3110605077.86 91753
DAM EMC PEMA PME
27955.00 781482025.00 146.24% -146.24%

18594.80 345766587.04 71.96% -71.96%
44529.80 1982903088.04 51.63% 51.63%
30359.87 1036717233.36 89.94% -55.52%
EJERCICIO 1. Bonds Payable 2 del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores para su resp
comportamiento.
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 400,000
Trimestre 6 360,000
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 200,000
40,000,000,000 200000 Trimestre 2 400,000
- 0 Trimestre 3 400,000
1,600,000,000 40000 Trimestre 4 360,000
1,600,000,000 40000 Trimestre 5 400,000
1,600,000,000 40000 Trimestre 6 360,000
1,600,000,000 40000 Trimestre 7 320,000
1,600,000,000 40000 Trimestre 8 280,000
Trimestre 9
48,000,000,000 400000

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
ntes valores para su respectivo analisis e identificación del
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
200,000 200,000 200000 40,000,000,000 50.00%

400,000 - 0 - 0.00%
400,000 -40,000 40000 1,600,000,000 11.11%
360,000 40,000 40000 1,600,000,000 10.00%
400,000 -40,000 40000 1,600,000,000 11.11%
360,000 -40,000 40000 1,600,000,000 12.50%
320,000 -40,000 40000 1,600,000,000 14.29%
280,000 11428.6 57142.9 6857142857.1 15.57%
57143 6857142857 15.57% 1.57% 280,000
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

83354 10591010648 22.31% 13.64% 321,968
69375 8421707589 18.87% 6.56% 312,188
64153 7355809360 17.52% 3.44% 296,409
50000 3266666667 14.47% -4.47% 300,000
57500 3625000000 17.66% -10.16% 340,000
53333 3968000000 17.88% -16.40% 340,000
55595 4395238095 19.33% -5.16% 344,286
El método del Promedi

arroja el menor valor d
PEMA y PME, lo que su
ajusta a los datos
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
50.00% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
0.00% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
-11.11% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
10.00% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
-11.11% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
-12.50% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
-14.29% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
1.57% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Bonds Payable 2
450,000
400,000 400,000 400,000

400,000
360,000 360,000
Bonds Payable 2 ($)
350,000
320,000
300,000 280,000
250,000
Bonds Payable 2
450,000
400,000 400,000 400,000

400,000
360,000 360,000
Bonds Payable 2 ($)

350,000
320,000
300,000 280,000
250,000
200,000
200,000
150,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Trimestre (t)
El método del Promedio Móvil con n=2 parece ser el que

arroja el menor valor de errores en términos de DAM, EMC,
PEMA y PME, lo que sugiere que es el método que mejor se
ajusta a los datos
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
360,000
320,000
280,000
360,000
320,000
280,000
6 7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 40000000000 200000

11.32% 19600000000 140000
18.61% 3364000000 58000
21.60% 6496360000 80600
26.00% 269616400 16420
19.08% 812592036 28506
18.16% 3594506098 59954
18.57%
74137074534 583480
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 200,000
40000000000 200000 Trimestre 2 400,000 200,000 200,000
10000000000 100000 Trimestre 3 400,000 260,000 300,000
100000000 10000 Trimestre 4 360,000 302,000 350,000
2025000000 45000 Trimestre 5 400,000 319,400 355,000
306250000 17500 Trimestre 6 360,000 343,580 377,500
2376562500 48750 Trimestre 7 320,000 348,506 368,750
4144140625 64375 Trimestre 8 280,000 339,954 344,375
Trimestre 9 321,968 312,188
58951953125 485625
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000

300,000 340,000 140,000 100,000 60,000 140,000
350,000 382,000 58,000 10,000 -22,000 58,000
355,000 366,600 80,600 45,000 33,400 80,600
377,500 389,980 16,420 -17,500 -29,980 16,420
368,750 368,994 -28,506 -48,750 -48,994 28,506
344,375 334,698 -59,954 -64,375 -54,698 59,954
312,188 296,409 58,080 32,054 19,675 83354.3
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
200,000 200,000 40000000000.00 40000000000.00 40000000000.00

100,000 60,000 19600000000.00 10000000000.00 3600000000.00
10,000 22,000 3364000000.00 100000000.00 484000000.00
45,000 33,400 6496360000.00 2025000000.00 1115560000.00
17,500 29,980 269616400.00 306250000.00 898800400.00
48,750 48,994 812592036.00 2376562500.00 2400412036.00
64,375 54,698 3594506097.64 4144140625.00 2991893083.24
69,375 64,153 10591010647.66 8421707589.29 7355809359.89
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%

35% 25% 15% 35% 25% 15%
16% 3% 6% 16% 3% -6%
20% 11% 8% 20% 11% 8%
5% 5% 8% 5% -5% -8%
9% 15% 15% -9% -15% -15%
21% 23% 20% -21% -23% -20%
22% 19% 18% 14% 7% 3%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
18677777778 136667 2
3891383220 62381 3
3773469388 61429 4
419274376 20476 5
3543083900 59524 6
344897959 18571 7
500907029 22381 8
4011111111 63333 9
35161904761.9048 164762 36
B=
A=
B= 952.4
A= 335714.3
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
200,000 200,000 1 336667 -136667

400,000 800,000 4 337619 62381
400,000 1,200,000 9 338571 61429
360,000 1,440,000 16 339524 20476
400,000 2,000,000 25 340476 59524
360,000 2,160,000 36 341429 18571
320,000 2,240,000 49 342381 -22381
280,000 2,240,000 64 343333 -63333
344286
2,720,000 12,280,000 204 340,476 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
136666.67 18677777777.78 68.33% -68.33%

62380.95 3891383219.95 15.60% 15.60%
61428.57 3773469387.76 15.36% 15.36%
20476.19 419274376.42 5.69% 5.69%
59523.81 3543083900.23 14.88% 14.88%
18571.43 344897959.18 5.16% 5.16%
22380.95 500907029.48 6.99% -6.99%
63333.33 4011111111.11 22.62% -22.62%
55595.24 4395238095.24 19.33% -5.16%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 200,000
2 400,000
10000000000 100000 3 400,000 300000 100000
1600000000 40000 4 360,000 400000 -40000
400000000 20000 5 400,000 380000 20000
400000000 20000 6 360,000 380000 -20000
3600000000 60000 7 320,000 380000 -60000
3600000000 60000 8 280,000 340000 -60000
9 300000 -10000
19600000000 300000
DAM EMC PEMA PME
100000.00 10000000000.00 25.00% 25.00%

40000.00 1600000000.00 11.11% -11.11%
20000.00 400000000.00 5.00% 5.00%
20000.00 400000000.00 5.56% -5.56%
60000.00 3600000000.00 18.75% -18.75%
60000.00 3600000000.00 21.43% -21.43%
50000 3266666666.67 14.47% -4.47%
ni Xi
1 200,000
2 400,000
3 400,000
4 360,000
3600000000.0000 60000 5 400,000 340000.00 60000.00
900000000.0000 30000 6 360,000 390000.00 -30000.00
3600000000.0000 60000 7 320,000 380000.00 -60000.00
6400000000.0000 80000 8 280,000 360000.00 -80000.00
756250000.0000 27500 9 340000.00 -27500.00
15256250000.0000 257500
DAM EMC PEMA PME
60000.00 3600000000.00 15.00% 15.00%

30000.00 900000000.00 8.33% -8.33%
60000.00 3600000000.00 18.75% -18.75%
80000.00 6400000000.00 28.57% -28.57%
57500.00 3625000000.00 17.66% -10.16%
ni Xi
1 200,000
2 400,000
3 400,000
4 360,000
5 400,000
64000000.0000 8000 6 360,000 352000.00 8000.00
4096000000.0000 64000 7 320,000 384000.00 -64000.00
7744000000.0000 88000 8 280,000 368000.00 -88000.00
2304000000.0000 48000 9 340000.00 -48000.00
14208000000.00 208000
DAM EMC PEMA PME
8000.00 64000000.00 2.22% 2.22%

64000.00 4096000000.00 20.00% -20.00%
88000.00 7744000000.00 31.43% -31.43%
53333.33 3968000000.00 17.88% -16.40%
EJERCICIO 1. Las Ventas Netas del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores para su re
del comportamiento.
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 560,120
Trimestre 6 638,313
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 401,040
959,264,784 30972 Trimestre 2 432,012
159,415,876 12626 Trimestre 3 444,638
6,552,416,809 80947 Trimestre 4 525,585
1,192,666,225 34535 Trimestre 5 560,120
6,114,145,249 78193 Trimestre 6 638,313
3,993,355,249 63193 Trimestre 7 575,120
2,212,761,600 47040 Trimestre 8 622,160
Trimestre 9
21,184,025,792 347506

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
entes valores para su respectivo analisis e identificación
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
401,040 30,972 30972 959,264,784 7.17%

432,012 12,626 12626 159,415,876 2.84%
444,638 80,947 80947 6,552,416,809 15.40%
525,585 34,535 34535 1,192,666,225 6.17%
560,120 78,193 78193 6,114,145,249 12.25%
638,313 -63,193 63193 3,993,355,249 10.99%
575,120 47,040 47040 2,212,761,600 7.56%
622,160 31588.6 49643.7 3026289398.9 8.91%
49644 3026289399 8.91% 5.77% 622,160
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

79240 8080006650 14.08% 14.08% 567,444
57738 4825218121 10.40% 10.22% 599,537
52666 3517091102 9.51% 7.81% 611,132
54230 3993786214 9.66% 8.26% 598,640
84339 9274938306 14.00% 14.00% 598,928
98008 11948796935 15.77% 15.77% 598,928
24497 895169120 4.41% -0.32% 679,102
minimizar todas las mé
Pronóstico
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
7.17% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
2.84% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
15.40% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
6.17% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
12.25% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
-10.99% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
7.56% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
5.77% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Ventas Netas
850,000
750,000
entas Netas ($)
650,000 638,313 622,160

560,120 575,120
550,000
525,585
Ventas Netas
850,000
750,000
Ventas Netas ($)

650,000 638,313 622,160
560,120 575,120
550,000
525,585
450,000 432,012 444,638

401,040
350,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Trimestre (t)
el método "Regresión Lineal" es el mejor en términos de

minimizar todas las métricas: DAM, EMC, PEMA, PME y
Pronóstico
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
8,313 622,160
575,120
8,313 622,160
575,120
7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 959264784 30972

11.32% 1176929081 34306
18.61% 11016912284 104961
21.60% 11665735841 108008
26.00% 23654017113 153799
19.08% 1977228503 44466
18.16% 6109958941 78166
18.57%
56560046548 554679
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 401,040
959264784 30972 Trimestre 2 432,012 401,040 401,040
790284544 28112 Trimestre 3 444,638 410,332 416,526
9025570009 95003 Trimestre 4 525,585 420,624 430,582
6729987332 82037 Trimestre 5 560,120 452,112 478,084
14211322127 119211 Trimestre 6 638,313 484,514 519,102
12869259 3587 Trimestre 7 575,120 530,654 578,707
2047228795 45246 Trimestre 8 622,160 543,994 576,914
Trimestre 9 567,444 599,537
33776526850 404168
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
401,040 401,040 30,972 30,972 30,972 30,972

416,526 422,720 34,306 28,112 21,918 34,306
430,582 438,063 104,961 95,003 87,522 104,961
478,084 499,328 108,008 82,037 60,792 108,008
519,102 541,882 153,799 119,211 96,431 153,799
578,707 609,384 44,466 -3,587 -34,264 44,466
576,914 585,399 78,166 45,246 36,761 78,166
599,537 611,132 79,240 56,713 42,876 79239.8
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
30,972 30,972 959264784.00 959264784.00 959264784.00

28,112 21,918 1176929080.96 790284544.00 480381189.76
95,003 87,522 11016912283.79 9025570009.00 7660149496.40
82,037 60,792 11665735840.58 6729987332.25 3695628843.56
119,211 96,431 23654017113.41 14211322126.56 9298842333.13
3,587 34,264 1977228503.40 12869259.39 1174011309.92
45,246 36,761 6109958941.49 2047228794.85 1351359759.52
57,738 52,666 8080006649.66 4825218121.44 3517091102.33
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
8% 6% 5% 8% 6% 5%
20% 18% 17% 20% 18% 17%
19% 15% 11% 19% 15% 11%
24% 19% 15% 24% 19% 15%
8% 1% 6% 8% -1% -6%
13% 7% 6% 13% 7% 6%
14% 10% 10% 14% 10% 8%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
15036299 3878 2
51534622 7179 3
830930040 28826 4
318552804 17848 5
327970375 18110 6
3847703177 62030 7
1255726970 35436 8
513898674 22669 9
7161352961.61905 109726 36
B=
A=
B= 34273.1
A= 370644.6
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
401,040 401,040 1 404918 -3878

432,012 864,024 4 439191 -7179
444,638 1,333,914 9 473464 -28826
525,585 2,102,340 16 507737 17848
560,120 2,800,600 25 542010 18110
638,313 3,829,878 36 576283 62030
575,120 4,025,840 49 610556 -35436
622,160 4,977,280 64 644829 -22669
679102
4,198,988 20,334,916 204 542,010 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
3877.67 15036298.78 0.97% -0.97%

7178.76 51534622.49 1.66% -1.66%
28825.86 830930040.02 6.48% -6.48%
17848.05 318552803.81 3.40% 3.40%
18109.95 327970375.24 3.23% 3.23%
62029.86 3847703177.16 9.72% 9.72%
35436.24 1255726970.34 6.16% -6.16%
22669.33 513898673.78 3.64% -3.64%
24496.96 895169120.20 4.41% -0.32%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 401,040
2 432,012
790284544 28112 3 444,638 416526 28112
7614307600 87260 4 525,585 438325 87260
5626275072 75009 5 560,120 485112 75009
9112707060 95461 6 638,313 542853 95461
580641312 24097 7 575,120 599217 -24097
238501692 15444 8 622,160 606717 15444
9 598640 46198
23962717281 325381
DAM EMC PEMA PME
28112.00 790284544.00 6.32% 6.32%

87260.00 7614307600.00 16.60% 16.60%
75008.50 5626275072.25 13.39% 13.39%
95460.50 9112707060.25 14.96% 14.96%
24096.50 580641312.25 4.19% -4.19%
15443.50 238501692.25 2.48% 2.48%
54230.1666667 3993786213.50 9.66% 8.26%
ni Xi
1 401,040
2 432,012
3 444,638
4 525,585
11946763251.5625 109301 5 560,120 450818.75 109301.25
21822454038.0625 147724 6 638,313 490588.75 147724.25
1086097936.0000 32956 7 575,120 542164.00 32956.00
2244438000.2500 47376 8 622,160 574784.50 47375.50
7113109090.5625 84339 9 598928.25 84339.25
44212862316.4375 421696.25
DAM EMC PEMA PME
109301.25 11946763251.56 19.51% 19.51%

147724.25 21822454038.06 23.14% 23.14%
32956.00 1086097936.00 5.73% 5.73%
47375.50 2244438000.25 7.61% 7.61%
84339.25 9274938306.47 14.00% 14.00%
ni Xi
1 401,040
2 432,012
3 444,638
4 525,585
5 560,120
27434621956.0000 165634 6 638,313 472679.00 165634.00
3023504184.9600 54986 7 575,120 520133.60 54986.40
5388264663.0400 73405 8 622,160 548755.20 73404.80
9605646470.5600 98008 9 598928.25 98008.40
45452037274.56 392034
DAM EMC PEMA PME
165634.00 27434621956.00 25.95% 25.95%

54986.40 3023504184.96 9.56% 9.56%
73404.80 5388264663.04 11.80% 11.80%
98008.40 11948796934.67 15.77% 15.77%
EJERCICIO 1. Los Costo de Prod Vendidos del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 348,744
Trimestre 6 433,937
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 255,132
112,360,000 10600 Trimestre 2 265,732
5,708,860,249 75557 Trimestre 3 341,289
623,850,529 24977 Trimestre 4 316,312
1,051,834,624 32432 Trimestre 5 348,744
7,257,847,249 85193 Trimestre 6 433,937
4,371,060,996 66114 Trimestre 7 500,051
6,307,218,724 79418 Trimestre 8 420,633
Trimestre 9
25,433,032,371 374291

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
ta los siguientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
255,132 10,600 10600 112,360,000 3.99%

265,732 75,557 75557 5,708,860,249 22.14%
341,289 -24,977 24977 623,850,529 7.90%
316,312 32,432 32432 1,051,834,624 9.30%
348,744 85,193 85193 7,257,847,249 19.63%
433,937 66,114 66114 4,371,060,996 13.22%
500,051 -79,418 79418 6,307,218,724 18.88%
420,633 23643.0 53470.1 3633290338.7 13.58%
53470 3633290339 13.58% 5.93% 420,633
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

69583 7252145798 17.21% 17.21% 401,257
55876 4869578087 13.84% 12.47% 430,655
51875 3981892732 12.79% 9.20% 435,949
61680 5225096076 14.93% 11.26% 460,342
82725 9099229712 18.80% 18.80% 425,841
106637 14268112492 23.04% 23.04% 425,841
30232 1190669974 7.88% -0.74% 501,683
Pronóstico
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
3.99% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
22.14% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
-7.90% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
9.30% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
19.63% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
13.22% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
-18.88% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
5.93% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Costos de productos vendidos

600,000
de productos vendidos
500,000 500,051
433,937 420,633
400,000
341,289 348,744
300,000 316,312
($)
255,132 265,732
200,000
600,000

500,000 500,051
433,937 420,633
400,000
341,289 348,744
300,000 316,312
($)
255,132 265,732
200,000
100,000
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Trimestre (t)

Pronóstico
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
500,051
33,937 420,633
500,051
33,937 420,633
7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 112360000 10600

11.32% 6885182529 82977
18.61% 1096066828 33107
21.60% 3092119543 55607
26.00% 15405223560 124118
19.08% 23407912703 152996
18.16% 766155423 27680
18.57%
50765020585 487084
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 255,132
112360000 10600 Trimestre 2 265,732 255,132 255,132
6537854449 80857 Trimestre 3 341,289 258,312 260,432
238748852 15452 Trimestre 4 316,312 283,205 300,861
1612644885 40158 Trimestre 5 348,744 293,137 308,586
11082167666 105272 Trimestre 6 433,937 309,819 328,665
14101547656 118750 Trimestre 7 500,051 347,055 381,301
401723102 20043 Trimestre 8 420,633 392,953 440,676
Trimestre 9 401,257 430,655
34087046610 391131
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
255,132 255,132 10,600 10,600 10,600 10,600

260,432 262,552 82,977 80,857 78,737 82,977
300,861 317,668 33,107 15,452 -1,356 33,107
308,586 316,719 55,607 40,158 32,025 55,607
328,665 339,136 124,118 105,272 94,801 124,118
381,301 405,497 152,996 118,750 94,554 152,996
440,676 471,685 27,680 -20,043 -51,052 27,680
430,655 435,949 69,583 50,149 36,901 69583.5
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
10,600 10,600 112360000.00 112360000.00 112360000.00

80,857 78,737 6885182529.00 6537854449.00 6199515169.00
15,452 1,356 1096066827.61 238748852.25 1838464.81
40,158 32,025 3092119542.65 1612644885.06 1025615356.55
105,272 94,801 15405223560.36 11082167666.02 8987147882.72
118,750 94,554 23407912702.83 14101547656.25 8940491196.76
20,043 51,052 766155422.76 401723101.69 2606281054.52
55,876 51,875 7252145797.89 4869578087.18 3981892732.05
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
24% 24% 23% 24% 24% 23%
10% 5% 0% 10% 5% 0%
16% 12% 9% 16% 12% 9%
29% 24% 22% 29% 24% 22%
31% 24% 19% 31% 24% 19%
7% 5% 12% 7% -5% -12%
17% 14% 13% 17% 12% 9%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
24237570 4923 2
253162952 15911 3
795896793 28212 4
795218514 28200 5
739942327 27202 6
705266661 26557 7
3749920596 61237 8
2461714379 49616 9
9525359792.61905 120283 36
B=
A=
B= 31434.3
A= 218774.6
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
255,132 255,132 1 250209 4923

265,732 531,464 4 281643 -15911
341,289 1,023,867 9 313077 28212
316,312 1,265,248 16 344512 -28200
348,744 1,743,720 25 375946 -27202
433,937 2,603,622 36 407380 26557
500,051 3,500,357 49 438814 61237
420,633 3,365,064 64 470249 -49616
501683
2,881,830 14,288,474 204 375,946 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
4923.17 24237570.03 1.93% 1.93%

15911.10 253162951.68 5.99% -5.99%
28211.64 795896792.70 8.27% 8.27%
28199.62 795218514.43 8.92% -8.92%
27201.88 739942327.35 7.80% -7.80%
26556.86 705266661.31 6.12% 6.12%
61236.60 3749920596.35 12.25% 12.25%
49615.67 2461714378.78 11.80% -11.80%
30232.07 1190669974.08 7.88% -0.74%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 255,132
2 265,732
6537854449 80857 3 341,289 260432 80857
163878402 12802 4 316,312 303511 12802
397743192 19944 5 348,744 328801 19944
10283785281 101409 6 433,937 332528 101409
11817972810 108711 7 500,051 391341 108711
2149342321 46361 8 420,633 466994 -46361
9 460342 46227
31350576455.8 370082.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
80857.00 6537854449.00 23.69% 23.69%

12801.50 163878402.25 4.05% 4.05%
19943.50 397743192.25 5.72% 5.72%
101409.00 10283785281.00 23.37% 23.37%
108710.50 11817972810.25 21.74% 21.74%
46361.00 2149342321.00 11.02% -11.02%
61680.4166667 5225096075.96 14.93% 11.26%
ni Xi
1 255,132
2 265,732
3 341,289
4 316,312
2929813320.0625 54128 5 348,744 294616.25 54127.75
13436924765.0625 115918 6 433,937 318019.25 115917.75
19594540380.2500 139981 7 500,051 360070.50 139980.50
435640384.0000 20872 8 420,633 399761.00 20872.00
6843342900.2500 82725 9 425841.25 82724.50
43240261749.6250 413622.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
54127.75 2929813320.06 15.52% 15.52%

115917.75 13436924765.06 26.71% 26.71%
139980.50 19594540380.25 27.99% 27.99%
20872.00 435640384.00 4.96% 4.96%
82724.50 9099229712.34 18.80% 18.80%
ni Xi
1 255,132
2 265,732
3 341,289
4 316,312
5 348,744
16511016423.0400 128495 6 433,937 305441.80 128495.20
25232750643.2400 158848 7 500,051 341202.80 158848.20
1060570408.9600 32566 8 420,633 388066.60 32566.40
11371364459.5600 106637 9 425841.25 106636.60
54175701934.80 426546
DAM EMC PEMA PME
128495.20 16511016423.04 29.61% 29.61%

158848.20 25232750643.24 31.77% 31.77%
32566.40 1060570408.96 7.74% 7.74%
106636.60 14268112491.75 23.04% 23.04%
EJERCICIO 1. Los Gtos Admin y de Vtas del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores pa
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 116,700
Trimestre 6 115,300
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 108,200
424,360,000 20600 Trimestre 2 87,600
219,040,000 14800 Trimestre 3 102,400
73,960,000 8600 Trimestre 4 111,000
32,490,000 5700 Trimestre 5 116,700
1,960,000 1400 Trimestre 6 115,300
47,610,000 6900 Trimestre 7 122,200
234,090,000 15300 Trimestre 8 137,500
Trimestre 9
1,033,510,000 73300

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
los siguientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
108,200 -20,600 20600 424,360,000 23.52%

87,600 14,800 14800 219,040,000 14.45%
102,400 8,600 8600 73,960,000 7.75%
111,000 5,700 5700 32,490,000 4.88%
116,700 -1,400 1400 1,960,000 1.21%
115,300 6,900 6900 47,610,000 5.65%
122,200 15,300 15300 234,090,000 11.13%
137,500 4185.7 10471.4 147644285.7 9.80%
10471 147644286 9.80% 2.73% 137,500
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

11995 197809866 10.69% 3.97% 121,031
11430 167965174 10.37% 3.65% 127,605
10795 152371075 9.94% 3.22% 132,253
9483 128059167 7.89% 7.89% 129,850
14331 223197031 11.52% 11.52% 122,925
16567 306938267 12.99% 12.99% 122,925
5737 53086443 5.39% -0.48% 135,246
Pronóstico
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
-23.52% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
14.45% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
7.75% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
4.88% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
-1.21% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
5.65% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
11.13% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
2.73% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Gtos Admin y de Vtas

160,000
140,000 137,500
Admin y de Vtas ($)
120,000 122,200
116,700 115,300
108,200 111,000
100,000 102,400
87,600
80,000
60,000
40,000
Gtos Admin y de Vtas
160,000
140,000 137,500
Gtos Admin y de Vtas ($)

120,000 122,200
116,700 115,300
108,200 111,000
100,000 102,400
87,600
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Trimestre (t)

Pronóstico
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
137,500
122,200
5,300
137,500
122,200
5,300
7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 424360000 20600

11.32% 144400 380
18.61% 78605956 8866
21.60% 141757598 11906
26.00% 48085071 6934
19.08% 138157409 11754
18.16% 553558625 23528
18.57%
1384669060 83968
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 108,200
424360000 20600 Trimestre 2 87,600 108,200 108,200
20250000 4500 Trimestre 3 102,400 102,020 97,900
117722500 10850 Trimestre 4 111,000 102,134 100,150
123765625 11125 Trimestre 5 116,700 104,794 105,575
17326406 4163 Trimestre 6 115,300 108,366 111,138
80662852 8981 Trimestre 7 122,200 110,446 113,219
391668838 19791 Trimestre 8 137,500 113,972 117,709
Trimestre 9 121,031 127,605
1175756221 80009
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
108,200 108,200 -20,600 -20,600 -20,600 20,600

97,900 93,780 380 4,500 8,620 380
100,150 99,814 8,866 10,850 11,186 8,866
105,575 107,644 11,906 11,125 9,056 11,906
111,138 113,983 6,934 4,163 1,317 6,934
113,219 114,905 11,754 8,981 7,295 11,754
117,709 120,011 23,528 19,791 17,489 23,528
127,605 132,253 6,110 5,544 4,909 11995.5
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
20,600 20,600 424360000.00 424360000.00 424360000.00

4,500 8,620 144400.00 20250000.00 74304400.00
10,850 11,186 78605956.00 117722500.00 125126596.00
11,125 9,056 141757598.44 123765625.00 82007513.64
4,163 1,317 48085071.24 17326406.25 1733804.23
8,981 7,295 138157409.31 80662851.56 53217345.98
19,791 17,489 553558624.52 391668837.89 305847863.10
11,430 10,795 197809865.64 167965174.39 152371074.71
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
24% 24% 24% -24% -24% -24%

0% 4% 8% 0% 4% 8%
8% 10% 10% 8% 10% 10%
10% 10% 8% 10% 10% 8%
6% 4% 1% 6% 4% 1%
10% 7% 6% 10% 7% 6%
17% 14% 13% 17% 14% 13%
11% 10% 10% 4% 4% 3%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
174020069 13192 2
154706213 12438 3
7117462 2668 4
814291 902 5
2473131 1573 6
23591837 4857 7
8921600 2987 8
53046944 7283 9
424691547.619048 25481 36
B=
A=
B= 5029.8
A= 89978.6
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
108,200 108,200 1 95008 13192

87,600 175,200 4 100038 -12438
102,400 307,200 9 105068 -2668
111,000 444,000 16 110098 902
116,700 583,500 25 115127 1573
115,300 691,800 36 120157 -4857
122,200 855,400 49 125187 -2987
137,500 1,100,000 64 130217 7283
135246
900,900 4,265,300 204 115,127 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
13191.67 174020069.44 12.19% 12.19%

12438.10 154706213.15 14.20% -14.20%
2667.86 7117461.73 2.61% -2.61%
902.38 814291.38 0.81% 0.81%
1572.62 2473130.67 1.35% 1.35%
4857.14 23591836.73 4.21% -4.21%
2986.90 8921600.06 2.44% -2.44%
7283.33 53046944.44 5.30% 5.30%
5737.50 53086443.45 5.39% -0.48%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 108,200
2 87,600
20250000 4500 3 102,400 97900 4500
256000000 16000 4 111,000 95000 16000
100000000 10000 5 116,700 106700 10000
2102500 1450 6 115,300 113850 1450
38440000 6200 7 122,200 116000 6200
351562500 18750 8 137,500 118750 18750
9 129850 9483
768355000 56900
DAM EMC PEMA PME
4500.00 20250000.00 4.39% 4.39%

16000.00 256000000.00 14.41% 14.41%
10000.00 100000000.00 8.57% 8.57%
1450.00 2102500.00 1.26% 1.26%
6200.00 38440000.00 5.07% 5.07%
18750.00 351562500.00 13.64% 13.64%
9483.33333333 128059166.67 7.89% 7.89%
ni Xi
1 108,200
2 87,600
3 102,400
4 111,000
207360000.0000 14400 5 116,700 102300.00 14400.00
118265625.0000 10875 6 115,300 104425.00 10875.00
117722500.0000 10850 7 122,200 111350.00 10850.00
449440000.0000 21200 8 137,500 116300.00 21200.00
205384726.5625 14331 9 122925.00 14331.25
1098172851.5625 71656.25
DAM EMC PEMA PME
14400.00 207360000.00 12.34% 12.34%

10875.00 118265625.00 9.43% 9.43%
10850.00 117722500.00 8.88% 8.88%
21200.00 449440000.00 15.42% 15.42%
14331.25 223197031.25 11.52% 11.52%
ni Xi
1 108,200
2 87,600
3 102,400
4 111,000
5 116,700
102414400.0000 10120 6 115,300 105180.00 10120.00
243360000.0000 15600 7 122,200 106600.00 15600.00
575040400.0000 23980 8 137,500 113520.00 23980.00
274454444.4444 16567 9 122925.00 16566.67
1195269244.44 66267
DAM EMC PEMA PME
10120.00 102414400.00 8.78% 8.78%

15600.00 243360000.00 12.77% 12.77%
23980.00 575040400.00 17.44% 17.44%
16566.67 306938266.67 12.99% 12.99%
EJERCICIO 1. Los Gtos de Almacen y Almacenamiento del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguien
analisis e identificación del comportamiento.
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 5 35,656
Trimestre 6 36,989
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 25,100
2,190,400 1480 Trimestre 2 23,620
906,304 952 Trimestre 3 22,668
60,808,804 7798 Trimestre 4 30,466
26,936,100 5190 Trimestre 5 35,656
1,776,889 1333 Trimestre 6 36,989
30,769,209 5547 Trimestre 7 31,442
207,475,216 14404 Trimestre 8 45,846
Trimestre 9
330,862,922 36704

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
matic reporta los siguientes valores para su respectivo
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
25,100 -1,480 1480 2,190,400 6.27%

23,620 -952 952 906,304 4.20%
22,668 7,798 7798 60,808,804 25.60%
30,466 5,190 5190 26,936,100 14.56%
35,656 1,333 1333 1,776,889 3.60%
36,989 -5,547 5547 30,769,209 17.64%
31,442 14,404 14404 207,475,216 31.42%
45,846 2963.7 5243.4 47266131.7 14.75%
5243 47266132 14.75% 6.72% 45,846
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

6039 59503609 16.73% 12.44% 35,701
5745 48310955 16.18% 9.79% 39,323
5536 45239165 15.68% 8.06% 41,928
6424 52266911 18.08% 10.42% 38,644
7822 82971527 19.81% 19.81% 37,483
8484 99951827 20.68% 20.68% 37,483
3135 14201596 10.35% -1.30% 43,928
Pronóstico
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
-6.27% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
-4.20% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
25.60% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
14.56% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
3.60% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
-17.64% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
31.42% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
6.72% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Gtos de Almacen y Almacenamiento

acen y Almacenamiento ($)
50,000
45,000 45,846
40,000
36,989
35,000 35,656
30,466 31,442
30,000
25,000 25,100
23,620
Gtos de Almacen y Almacenamiento
Gtos de Almacen y Almacenamiento ($)

50,000
45,000 45,846
40,000
36,989
35,000 35,656
30,466 31,442
30,000
25,000 25,100
23,620 22,668
20,000
15,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Trimestre (t)

Pronóstico
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
miento
45,846
989
31,442
miento
45,846
989
31,442
7 8 9 10
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 2190400 1480

11.32% 3952144 1988
18.61% 41041961 6406
21.60% 93595563 9674
26.00% 65693230 8105
19.08% 16026 127
18.16% 210035937 14493
18.57%
416525261 42273
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 25,100
2190400 1480 Trimestre 2 23,620 25,100 25,100
2862864 1692 Trimestre 3 22,668 24,656 24,360
48330304 6952 Trimestre 4 30,466 24,060 23,514
75099556 8666 Trimestre 5 35,656 25,982 26,990
32103556 5666 Trimestre 6 36,989 28,884 31,323
7365796 2714 Trimestre 7 31,442 31,315 34,156
170224209 13047 Trimestre 8 45,846 31,353 32,799
Trimestre 9 35,701 39,323
338176685 40217
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
25,100 25,100 -1,480 -1,480 -1,480 1,480

24,360 24,064 -1,988 -1,692 -1,396 1,988
23,514 23,087 6,406 6,952 7,379 6,406
26,990 28,252 9,674 8,666 7,404 9,674
31,323 33,435 8,105 5,666 3,554 8,105
34,156 35,923 127 -2,714 -4,481 127
32,799 32,786 14,493 13,047 13,060 14,493
39,323 41,928 5,048 4,064 3,434 6039.0
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
1,480 1,480 2190400.00 2190400.00 2190400.00

1,692 1,396 3952144.00 2862864.00 1948816.00
6,952 7,379 41041960.96 48330304.00 54452592.64
8,666 7,404 93595563.27 75099556.00 54815662.14
5,666 3,554 65693229.58 32103556.00 12631825.84
2,714 4,481 16026.34 7365796.00 20077224.52
13,047 13,060 210035937.07 170224209.00 170557632.15
5,745 5,536 59503608.75 48310955.00 45239164.76
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
6% 6% 6% -6% -6% -6%

9% 7% 6% -9% -7% -6%
21% 23% 24% 21% 23% 24%
27% 24% 21% 27% 24% 21%
22% 15% 10% 22% 15% 10%
0% 9% 14% 0% -9% -14%
32% 28% 28% 32% 28% 28%
17% 16% 16% 12% 10% 8%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
10979282 3314 2
872690 934 3
21658386 4654 4
141725 376 5
7833201 2799 6
1860788 1364 7
48310443 6951 8
21956253 4686 9
113612769.535714 7361 36
B=
A=
B= 2767.7
A= 19018.8
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
25,100 25,100 1 21787 3314

23,620 47,240 4 24554 -934
22,668 68,004 9 27322 -4654
30,466 121,864 16 30090 376
35,656 178,280 25 32857 2799
36,989 221,934 36 35625 1364
31,442 220,094 49 38393 -6951
45,846 366,768 64 41160 4686
43928
251,787 1,249,284 204 32,857 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
3313.50 10979282.25 13.20% 13.20%

934.18 872689.60 3.96% -3.96%
4653.86 21658386.31 20.53% -20.53%
376.46 141725.36 1.24% 1.24%
2798.79 7833201.47 7.85% 7.85%
1364.11 1860788.30 3.69% 3.69%
6950.57 48310443.18 22.11% -22.11%
4685.75 21956253.06 10.22% 10.22%
3134.65 14201596.19 10.35% -1.30%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 25,100
2 23,620
2862864 1692 3 22,668 24360 -1692
53611684 7322 4 30,466 23144 7322
82609921 9089 5 35,656 26567 9089
15429184 3928 6 36,989 33061 3928
23819280 4881 7 31,442 36323 -4881
135268530 11631 8 45,846 34216 11631
9 38644 4233
313601463.5 38542
DAM EMC PEMA PME
1692.00 2862864.00 7.46% -7.46%

7322.00 53611684.00 24.03% 24.03%
9089.00 82609921.00 25.49% 25.49%
3928.00 15429184.00 10.62% 10.62%
4880.50 23819280.25 15.52% -15.52%
11630.50 135268530.25 25.37% 25.37%
6423.66666667 52266910.58 18.08% 10.42%
ni Xi
1 25,100
2 23,620
3 22,668
4 30,466
103887056.2500 10193 5 35,656 25463.50 10192.50
78969882.2500 8887 6 36,989 28102.50 8886.50
7.5625 3 7 31,442 31444.75 -2.75
149029160.0625 12208 8 45,846 33638.25 12207.75
61168041.0000 7821 9 37483.25 7821.00
393054147.1250 39110.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
10192.50 103887056.25 28.59% 28.59%

8886.50 78969882.25 24.02% 24.02%
2.75 7.56 0.01% -0.01%
12207.75 149029160.06 26.63% 26.63%
7822.38 82971526.53 19.81% 19.81%
ni Xi
1 25,100
2 23,620
3 22,668
4 30,466
5 35,656
90003169.0000 9487 6 36,989 27502.00 9487.00
2440468.8400 1562 7 31,442 29879.80 1562.20
207411843.2400 14402 8 45,846 31444.20 14401.80
71972600.1111 8484 9 37483.25 8483.67
371828081.19 33935
DAM EMC PEMA PME
9487.00 90003169.00 25.65% 25.65%

1562.20 2440468.84 4.97% 4.97%
14401.80 207411843.24 31.41% 31.41%
8483.67 99951827.03 20.68% 20.68%
EJERCICIO 1. La Utilidad Operativa del equipo financiero de Tenpomatic reporta los siguientes valores para s
DETERMINE:
Trimestre 3 -21,719 b) Promedio Simple.
Trimestre 5 59,020
Trimestre 6 52,087
Trimestre 7 -78,573 b) Error medio Cuadrado (EMC)
Periodos Demanda
(DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 12,608
1,802,172,304 42452 Trimestre 2 55,060
5,895,014,841 76779 Trimestre 3 -21,719
8,014,904,676 89526 Trimestre 4 67,807
77,211,369 8787 Trimestre 5 59,020
48,066,489 6933 Trimestre 6 52,087
17,072,035,600 130660 Trimestre 7 -78,573
9,361,336,516 96754 Trimestre 8 18,181
Trimestre 9
42,270,741,795 451891

unidades.
Promedio Simple

unidades.


Promedio Móvil n=4
Promedio Móvil n=5
Regresión Lineal
siguientes valores para su respectivo analisis e
n= 2, 4 y 5
l para α = 0,3 , α = 0,5, α = 0,7
dia (DAM)
EMC)
uto (PEMA)
or (PME)
Último Valor
12,608 42,452 42452 1,802,172,304 77.10%

55,060 -76,779 76779 5,895,014,841 353.51%
-21,719 89,526 89526 8,014,904,676 132.03%
67,807 -8,787 8787 77,211,369 14.89%
59,020 -6,933 6933 48,066,489 13.31%
52,087 -130,660 130660 17,072,035,600 166.29%
-78,573 96,754 96754 9,361,336,516 532.17%
18,181 796.1 64555.9 6038677399.3 184.19%
64556 6038677399 184.19% 176.13% 18,181
131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

46348 3291015028 97.05% 97.05% 9,455
49573 3828332057 115.92% 115.92% 1,955
54465 4516552392 140.75% 138.97% 1,002
53257 4350170900 126.24% 118.99% (30,196)
41851 3755424426 65.73% 46.74% 12,679
47004 4986735824 67.07% 67.07% 12,679
40439 2068340605 109.09% 58.91% (1,755)
El método de Promedio
relativamente bajos de
comparación con otros
valores de error son un
EMC que los del métod
Exponencial con α = 0.
Promedio Móvil n=4 es
en este caso y se ajust
periodos
PME Error mensuales
(DAM) ni
Trimestre 1
77.10% 7,000,668,900 83670 Trimestre 2
353.51% 4,210,322,769 64887 Trimestre 3
132.03% 14,679,987,921 121161 Trimestre 4
-14.89% 23,817,980,396 154331 Trimestre 5
-13.31% 43,119,602,287 207653 Trimestre 6
166.29% 21,740,568,660 147447 Trimestre 7
532.17% 20,575,607,364 143442 Trimestre 8
176.13% Trimestre 9
135,144,738,296 922590
Utilidad Operativa
80,000
67,807
60,000 59,020
55,060 52,087
40,000
perativa ($)
20,000 18,181
12,608
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
Utilidad Operativa
80,000
67,807
60,000 59,020
55,060 52,087
40,000
Utilidad Operativa ($)

20,000 18,181
12,608
-
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
-20,000 -21,719
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000 -78,573
-100,000
Trimestre (t)
El método de Promedio Móvil con n=4 tiene valores

relativamente bajos de errores (DAM, EMC, PEMA y PME) en
comparación con otros métodos, aunque en general, los
valores de error son un poco más altos en relacion con el
EMC que los del método de Pronóstico de Suavización
Exponencial con α = 0.3. Esto indica que el método de
Promedio Móvil n=4 es una buena opción para pronosticar
en este caso y se ajusta razonablemente bien a los datos.
Promedio Simple
Demanda
millones
Xi
466,257
549,927 466,257 83670 83670 7000668900 15.21%
572,979 508,092 64887 64887 4210322769 11.32%
650,882 529,721 121161 121161 14679987921 18.61%
714,342 560,011 154331 154330.8 23817980396 21.60%
798,530 590,877 207653 207652.6 43119602287 26.00%
772,933 625,486 147447 147446.8 21740568660 19.08%
789,992 646,550 143442 143442 20575607364 18.16%
664,480 131798.6 131798.6 19306391185.2 18.57%
,087
18,181
7 8 9 10
,087
18,181
7 8 9 10
-78,573
PME
A=0,3 A=0,3 (DAM)
15.21% 1802172304 42452

11.32% 2214888319 47063
18.61% 3201543094 56582
21.60% 949904823 30821
26.00% 214369663 14641
19.08% 14498819098 120411
18.16% 155407898 12466
18.57%
23037105198 324436
Pronostico
periodos Demanda
Errores al cuadrado
Absoluto
A=0,5
A=0,5 (DAM) ni Xi
Trimestre 1 12,608
1802172304 42452 Trimestre 2 55,060 12,608 12,608
3086135809 55553 Trimestre 3 -21,719 25,344 33,834
3813000750 61750 Trimestre 4 67,807 11,225 6,058
487868700 22088 Trimestre 5 59,020 28,199 36,932
16899293 4111 Trimestre 6 52,087 37,446 47,976
16539133496 128605 Trimestre 7 -78,573 41,838 50,032
1053114050 32452 Trimestre 8 18,181 5,715 (14,271)
Trimestre 9 9,455 1,955
26798324402 347009
ronostico Error DAM
0.5 a= 0.7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3
12,608 12,608 42,452 42,452 42,452 42,452

33,834 42,324 -47,063 -55,553 -64,043 47,063
6,058 (2,506) 56,582 61,750 70,313 56,582
36,932 46,713 30,821 22,088 12,307 30,821
47,976 55,328 14,641 4,111 -3,241 14,641
50,032 53,059 -120,411 -128,605 -131,632 120,411
(14,271) (39,083) 12,466 32,452 57,264 12,466
1,955 1,002 -1,502 -3,044 -2,369 46348.0
DAM EMC
a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
42,452 42,452 1802172304.00 1802172304.00 1802172304.00

55,553 64,043 2214888318.76 3086135809.00 4101557083.56
61,750 70,313 3201543093.55 3813000750.25 4943915156.48
22,088 12,307 949904822.92 487868700.06 151459639.93
4,111 3,241 214369662.77 16899293.27 10503638.93
128,605 131,632 14498819098.14 16539133495.82 17327057016.90
32,452 57,264 155407898.13 1053114049.83 3279201902.75
49,573 54,465 3291015028.32 3828332057.46 4516552391.79
PEMA PME
a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7 a=0,3 a=0,5 a=0,7
77% 77% 77% 77% 77% 77%

217% 256% 295% 217% 256% 295%
83% 91% 104% 83% 91% 104%
52% 37% 21% 52% 37% 21%
28% 8% 6% 28% 8% -6%
153% 164% 168% 153% 164% 168%
69% 178% 315% 69% 178% 315%
97% 116% 141% 97% 116% 139%
cuadrado (DAM)
ni 1
640393636 25306 2
488613657 22105 3
2471659349 49716 4
2004247372 44769 5
1676118692 40940 6
1518351939 38966 7
7523022179 86735 8
224318018 14977 9
16546724841.3929 120817 36
B=
A=
B= -4958.6
A= 42872.6
Regresion lineal
Pronostico
(Y=A+B(x))
12,608 12,608 1 37914 -25306

55,060 110,120 4 32955 22105
-21,719 -65,157 9 27997 -49716
67,807 271,228 16 23038 44769
59,020 295,100 25 18080 40940
52,087 312,522 36 13121 38966
-78,573 -550,011 49 8162 -86735
18,181 145,448 64 3204 14977
-1755
164,471 531,858 204 18,080 0.000
valor arriba
valor abajo
valor arriba
valor abajo
DAM EMC PEMA PME
25306.00 640393636.00 200.71% -200.71%

22104.61 488613656.94 40.15% 40.15%
49715.79 2471659349.19 228.90% 228.90%
44768.82 2004247372.10 66.02% 66.02%
40940.43 1676118691.61 69.37% 69.37%
38966.04 1518351939.29 74.81% 74.81%
86735.36 7523022178.70 110.39% 110.39%
14977.25 224318017.56 82.38% 82.38%
40439.29 2068340605.17 109.09% 58.91%

Pronostico Error
ni Xi
1 12,608
2 55,060
3086135809 55553 3 -21,719 33834 -55553
2614941632 51137 4 67,807 16671 51137
1294272576 35976 5 59,020 23044 35976
128289602 11327 6 52,087 63414 -11327
17989918002 134127 7 -78,573 55554 -134127
987467776 31424 8 18,181 -13243 31424
9 -30196 -13745
26101025397.8 319542.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
55553.00 3086135809.00 255.78% 255.78%

51136.50 2614941632.25 75.41% 75.41%
35976.00 1294272576.00 60.96% 60.96%
11326.50 128289602.25 21.75% -21.75%
134126.50 17989918002.25 170.70% 170.70%
31424.00 987467776.00 172.84% 172.84%
53257.0833333 4350170899.63 126.24% 118.99%
ni Xi
1 12,608
2 55,060
3 -21,719
4 67,807
935197561.0000 30581 5 59,020 28439.00 30581.00
145082025.0000 12045 6 52,087 40042.00 12045.00
13893749448.0625 117872 7 -78,573 39298.75 -117871.75
47668668.0625 6904 8 18,181 25085.25 -6904.25
421788906.2500 20538 9 12678.75 -20537.50
15443486608.3750 187939.5
DAM EMC PEMA PME
30581.00 935197561.00 51.81% 51.81%

12045.00 145082025.00 23.12% 23.12%
117871.75 13893749448.06 150.02% 150.02%
6904.25 47668668.06 37.98% -37.98%
41850.50 3755424425.53 65.73% 46.74%
ni Xi
1 12,608
2 55,060
3 -21,719
4 67,807
5 59,020
307364011.2400 17532 6 52,087 34555.20 17531.80
14646808576.0000 121024 7 -78,573 42451.00 -121024.00
6034883.5600 2457 8 18,181 15724.40 2456.60
1134243607.4844 33679 9 12678.75 -33678.53
16094451078.28 174691
DAM EMC PEMA PME
17531.80 307364011.24 33.66% 33.66%

121024.00 14646808576.00 154.03% 154.03%
2456.60 6034883.56 13.51% 13.51%
47004.13 4986735823.60 67.07% 67.07%

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JUEGOS GERENCIALES

Leidy Maryury Garzón Forero

Jose Leonardo Montealegre

Universidad del Tolima

- INTERPRETACIÓN DAM: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en Último Valor

- INTERPRETACIÓN PEMA: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en

- INTERPRETACIÓN EMC: Compara métodos diferentes de

Suavización Exp. Alga=0,7

Promedio Móvil n=5

Pronostico Error DAM EMC PEMA

466,257 82,970 82970 6,884,020,900 15.11%

DAM EMC PEMA PME pronóstico

53561 3654008950 8.02% 7.07% 789,992

131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

86760 8828543344 12.73% 12.73% 769,918

64879 5572465796 9.72% 9.72% 784,166

65684 6088589323 9.45% 9.45% 781,463

118937 16519404369 15.58% 15.58% 768,949

137197 21442698651 17.38% 17.38% 768,949

26129 978844330 3.83% -0.28% 885,364

15.11% 6884020900 82970

800,000 798,530 789,992

800,000 798,530 789,992

Cuentas x cobrar ($) 700,000

el método "Regresión Lineal" es el mejor en

466,257 466,257 82,970 82,970 82,970 82,970

82,970 82,970 6884020900.00 6884020900.00 6884020900.00

15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

466,257 466,257 1 492527 -26270

26269.58 690091008.51 5.63% -5.63%

26128.65 978844330.43 3.83% -0.28%

65237.00 4255866169.00 11.39% 11.39%

154505.75 23872026783.06 21.63% 21.63%

207792.60 43177764614.76 26.02% 26.02%

- INTERPRETACIÓN DAM: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en Último Valor

- INTERPRETACIÓN PEMA: Mide el tamaño del error absoluto, en

- INTERPRETACIÓN EMC: Compara métodos diferentes de

Suavización Exp. Alga=0,7

Promedio Móvil n=5

Pronostico Error DAM EMC PEMA

1,000,000 300,000 300000 90,000,000,000 23.08%

DAM EMC PEMA PME pronóstico

117143 32628571429 7.72% 7.72% 1,820,000

131799 19306391185 18.57% 18.57% 664,480

218973 60814801897 14.08% 14.08% 1,766,406

165317 42845062018 10.75% 10.75% 1,810,052

155000 43583333333 9.46% 9.46% 1,820,000

325000 114375000000 18.66% 18.66% 1,745,000

392000 165834666667 21.54% 21.54% 1,745,000

76071 8273809524 5.24% -0.43% 2,027,143

Plantas y equipo al costo

1,800,000 1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000

1,800,000 1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000

Plantas y equipo al costo $

considerando el DAM y el EMC, el método que se ajusta a los

1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000

1,820,000 1,820,000 1,820,000

15.21% 90000000000 300000

1,000,000 1,000,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000

300,000 300,000 90000000000.00 90000000000.00 90000000000.00

23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%

1,000,000 1,000,000 1 1063333 -63333

63333.33 4011111111.11 6.33% -6.33%