PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO ES

1998 41.5
1999 43.2
50
2000 36.4
2001 30.1 45
2002 24.2
2003 27.5 40
2004 29.8 35
2005 40.0
2006 42.7 30
2007 32.1
25
2008 39.0
2009 47.3 20
2010 36.9
2011 30.1 15
2012 40.8 10
2013 41.7
2014 38.3 5
2015 43.4
0
2016 37.2
2017 38.2 98 01 0 4 07 10 13 16
2018 26.7 19 2 0 20 20 20 2 0 20
 ESTACION JACAS CHICO

0 4 0 07 0 10 0 13 0 16
2 2 2 2

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 666.2
Mediana 364.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 883.4
Varianza 780454
Curtosis 4.60
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.06
Rango 4424
Mínimo 0
Máximo 4424
Suma 49299.5
Cuenta 74
PRECIPITACION MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS (mm)
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS F(x)
1998 41.5 47.3 0.9539468751002
1999 43.2 43.4 0.8587062532252
2000 36.4 43.2 0.8515836792427
2001 30.1 42.7 0.8327430854084
2002 24.2 41.7 0.7906521357883
2003 27.5 41.5 0.781541820587
2004 29.8 40.8 0.7479165772983
2005 40.0 40.0 0.7063825268992
2006 42.7 39.0 0.6504262587501
2007 32.1 38.3 0.6091132089961
2008 39.0 38.2 0.603096759928
2009 47.3 37.2 0.5418101737738
2010 36.9 36.9 0.5231585138918
2011 30.1 36.4 0.4919796241238
2012 40.8 32.1 0.2443050255362
2013 41.7 30.1 0.1573827616079
2014 38.3 30.1 0.1573827616079
2015 43.4 29.8 0.1463572255617
2016 37.2 27.5 0.0789971021027
2017 38.2 26.7 0.0621527319008
2018 26.7 24.2 0.0269344186857
 f(x) MEDIA 36.53
0.015100651 DESV.EST. 6.39
0.0350235765
0.0362028669
0.0391598163 F(x)
0.0449853429
0.0461150535 1
0.0499112346 0.9
0.053838118
0.8
0.0578957049
0.0600367256 0.7
0.0602899814 0.6
0.0620419849
0.5
0.0622797628
0.0623722963 0.4
0.049083871 0.3
0.0376388459 0.2
0.0376388459
0.1
0.0358655118
0.0230269082 0
0.0191483223 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0.0097273725
f(x)

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

0.01

0
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x)
1998 41.5 47.3 3.856510295498 0.9302466950256
1999 43.2 43.4 3.770459441106 0.8446724839344
2000 36.4 43.2 3.76584049525 0.8386572057308
2001 30.1 42.7 3.754198920235 0.8228316580293
2002 24.2 41.7 3.730501128805 0.7877063197043
2003 27.5 41.5 3.725693427237 0.7801133985622
2004 29.8 40.8 3.70868208141 0.7520298891331
2005 40.0 40.0 3.688879454114 0.717071090138
2006 42.7 39.0 3.66356164613 0.6692013413967
2007 32.1 38.3 3.645449896187 0.6331068500788
2008 39.0 38.2 3.642835515613 0.6277888479703
2009 47.3 37.2 3.616308761279 0.5726140556542
2010 36.9 36.9 3.608211551046 0.5554299332985
2011 30.1 36.4 3.594568774643 0.5262564725246
2012 40.8 32.1 3.468856030136 0.2703739342365
2013 41.7 30.1 3.404525171755 0.1689300364325
2014 38.3 30.1 3.404525171755 0.1689300364325
2015 43.4 29.8 3.394508393511 0.1556761043759
2016 37.2 27.5 3.314186004673 0.0741872717835
2017 38.2 26.7 3.284663565406 0.0543116538153
2018 26.7 24.2 3.186352633163 0.0164102840845
 f(x) MEDIA 36.53 MEDIA 3.5823
0.7216910439 DESV.EST. 6.39 DESV.EST. 0.1855
1.286073661
1.3185375435
1.4001866355 C.ASIMETRIA -0.67563135
1.5632184339
1.5953629982 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
1.7052842151
1.823407532 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
1.9537366864
2.0293318829 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
2.0388775687 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
2.1144352043
2.1293637327 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
2.1454930248
1.7832911405 z = 2.32634787
1.3583505121
1.3583505121 y=m+z S
1.2879770697
0.7566132503 y = 5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805
0.5936114413
0.2204644218 y= 4.0140

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x = 55.3669308
 F(x)

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
20 25 30 35 40 45 50

f(x)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
20 25 30 35 40 45 50

f(x)

2.5

2
 f(x)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
3 4 4
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x)
1998 41.5 47.3 2.827313621929 0.0211417714126
1999 43.2 43.4 3.034952986707 0.1293568250794
2000 36.4 43.2 3.044522437723 0.1383197506397
2001 30.1 42.7 3.068052935134 0.1621247907971
2002 24.2 41.7 3.11351530921 0.2152231543001
2003 27.5 41.5 3.122364924487 0.2266227130493
2004 29.8 40.8 3.152736022364 0.2682262858278
2005 40.0 40.0 3.186352633163 0.3183671886327
2006 42.7 39.0 3.226843994517 0.383419440477
2007 32.1 38.3 3.254242968706 0.429524855759
2008 39.0 38.2 3.258096538021 0.436102966159
2009 47.3 37.2 3.295836866004 0.5011804682416
2010 36.9 36.9 3.306886702191 0.5203061832704
2011 30.1 36.4 3.325036020697 0.551598584653
2012 40.8 32.1 3.468856030136 0.7745658037423
2013 41.7 30.1 3.529297384289 0.8452616161641
2014 38.3 30.1 3.529297384289 0.8452616161641
2015 43.4 29.8 3.538056564379 0.8541365306093
2016 37.2 27.5 3.602776755061 0.9091053473083
2017 38.2 26.7 3.624340932976 0.9234788718297
2018 26.7 24.2 3.688879454114 0.9562749333918

a 64.2000

Mediana 38.2
 f(x) MEDIA 36.53 MEDIA 3.2952
0.220285182 DESV.EST. 6.39 DESV.EST. 0.2304
0.9150863802 a 64.2000
0.9582124486
1.0652535054 C.ASIMETRIA 0.035479924
1.2690484424
1.3071056735
1.4304652159 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
1.5489194484
1.6571795123 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
1.7045630533
1.7093946993 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
1.731646102 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
1.7294100008
1.7171494801 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
1.3032262356
1.0331610797 z = 2.32634787
1.0331610797
0.9932822958 y=m+z S
0.7100706584
0.6239065725 y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
0.4020128632
y= 3.8311
2.5

y= ln (x - a)
2

x-a= e (y)
1.5

x - a = 46.1134394 1

x = 7413,477 - 25,068 0.5

x = 110.313439 0
3
 LN3; C.A.=0
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2 3 4

LN2; C.A.=-0,8
2.5

1.5

0.5

0
3 4 4
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
1998 41.5 47.3 2.33
1999 43.2 43.4 1.67
2000 36.4 43.2 1.64
2001 30.1 42.7 1.56
2002 24.2 41.7 1.39
2003 27.5 41.5 1.36
2004 29.8 40.8 1.24
2005 40.0 40.0 1.11
2006 42.7 39.0 0.94
2007 32.1 38.3 0.82
2008 39.0 38.2 0.80
2009 47.3 37.2 0.64
2010 36.9 36.9 0.59
2011 30.1 36.4 0.50
2012 40.8 32.1 (0.22)
2013 41.7 30.1 (0.55)
2014 38.3 30.1 (0.55)
2015 43.4 29.8 (0.60)
2016 37.2 27.5 (0.98)
2017 38.2 26.7 (1.12)
2018 26.7 24.2 (1.54)

x medio 36.53 0.5252

desv. Est x (Sx) 6.39 1.0696

n = número de datos 21
yn medio = 0.5252
Sn = 1.0696

parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 5.98
u = x-yn*a= 33.39
36.53 0.5252
6.39 1.0696

21
0.5252
1.0696

5.98
33.39
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.0100503

-y = -4.6001492

y = 4.6001492

y= x-u
a

x= u + a.y

x= 60.89
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION JACAS CHICO DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1998 41.5 47.3 1.462E-02 9.452E-01
1999 43.2 43.4 3.133E-02 8.580E-01
2000 36.4 43.2 3.237E-02 8.516E-01
2001 30.1 42.7 3.501E-02 8.348E-01
2002 24.2 41.7 4.042E-02 7.971E-01
2003 27.5 41.5 4.151E-02 7.889E-01
2004 29.8 40.8 4.529E-02 7.585E-01
2005 40.0 40.0 4.947E-02 7.206E-01
2006 42.7 39.0 5.426E-02 6.686E-01
2007 32.1 38.3 5.718E-02 6.296E-01
2008 39.0 38.2 5.756E-02 6.239E-01
2009 47.3 37.2 6.077E-02 5.646E-01
2010 36.9 36.9 6.150E-02 5.463E-01
2011 30.1 36.4 6.243E-02 5.153E-01
2012 40.8 32.1 5.454E-02 2.535E-01
2013 41.7 30.1 4.255E-02 1.558E-01
2014 38.3 30.1 4.255E-02 1.558E-01
2015 43.4 29.8 4.052E-02 1.433E-01
2016 37.2 27.5 2.492E-02 6.827E-02
2017 38.2 26.7 2.002E-02 5.032E-02
2018 26.7 24.2 8.333E-03 1.614E-02
x (media) 36.5
s2 (varianza) 40.9
a 32.629
b 1.12

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99

x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 53.0272456
 f(x)

7.0E-02

6.0E-02

5.0E-02

4.0E-02

3.0E-02

2.0E-02

1.0E-02

0.0E+00
20 25 30 35 40 45 50

F(x)

1.0E+00
9.0E-01
8.0E-01
7.0E-01
6.0E-01
5.0E-01
4.0E-01
3.0E-01
2.0E-01
1.0E-01
0.0E+00
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
45 50

45 50
 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
f(x) = − 0.01
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
R² = 0.9997
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8 f(x) = − 0.01
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 R² = 0.9996
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 f(x) = − 0.0089
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 R² = 0.999397
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 f(x) = − 0.0026
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 R² = 0.998537
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891 f(x) = 0.001376
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 R² = 0.9992547
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x) = 0.00407783
R² = 0.999982929
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 f(x) = 0.001399
R²
f(x)= =0.9992713
− 0.0192
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
R² = 0.999746
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101
2
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.0190533735741238 x³ + 0.0033863383557487 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100

3
f(x) = − 0.0139955001744857 x³ − 0.0169498622206491 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594

f(x) = − 0.00895764059491728 x³ − 0.0322070292749519 x² + 0.349711848701964 x + 1.73532055819598

2
R² = 0.999397936569578

coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.00260676908289863 x³ − 0.0412508532207504 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.00137667818669587 x³ − 0.0354644364950955 x² − 0.0476827658331005 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.00407783132972068 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0

f(x) = 0.00139929287393995 x³ + 0.0354719416776216 x² − 0.0478574019657413 x − 0.839213439174841

R²
f(x)= =0.999271357226285
− 0.0192834085803398 x³ − 0.00364704469612697 x² + 0.733220585508953 x − 2.30178106987562
R² = 0.999746677611077 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
2 Polynomial (2) 5 Polynomial (5)
 CUADRO Nº 38: PRUEBA DE AJUSTE SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV, PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS; ESTACION JACAS CHICO

Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D

DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 47.3 0.045 0.046 0.070 0.979 0.093 0.055 0.00060 0.02430 0.93340 0.04754 0.00939
2 43.4 0.091 0.141 0.155 0.871 0.171 0.142 0.05038 0.06442 0.77973 0.07998 0.05112
3 43.2 0.136 0.148 0.161 0.862 0.176 0.148 0.01205 0.02498 0.72532 0.03979 0.01204
4 42.7 0.182 0.167 0.177 0.838 0.190 0.165 0.01456 0.00465 0.65606 0.00815 0.01657
5 41.7 0.227 0.209 0.212 0.785 0.220 0.203 0.01792 0.01498 0.55750 0.00683 0.02432
6 41.5 0.273 0.218 0.220 0.773 0.227 0.211 0.05427 0.05284 0.50065 0.04571 0.06159
7 40.8 0.318 0.252 0.248 0.732 0.251 0.242 0.06610 0.07021 0.41359 0.06683 0.07666
8 40.0 0.364 0.294 0.283 0.682 0.282 0.279 0.07002 0.08071 0.31800 0.08189 0.08419
9 39.0 0.409 0.350 0.331 0.617 0.324 0.331 0.05952 0.07829 0.20749 0.08534 0.07773
10 38.3 0.455 0.391 0.367 0.570 0.356 0.370 0.06366 0.08765 0.11593 0.09873 0.08415
11 38.2 0.500 0.397 0.372 0.564 0.361 0.376 0.10310 0.12779 0.06390 0.13942 0.12387
12 37.2 0.545 0.458 0.427 0.499 0.411 0.435 0.08726 0.11807 0.04664 0.13488 0.11006
13 36.9 0.591 0.477 0.445 0.480 0.426 0.454 0.11407 0.14634 0.11122 0.16452 0.13718
14 36.4 0.636 0.508 0.474 0.448 0.454 0.485 0.12834 0.16262 0.18796 0.18282 0.15163
15 32.1 0.682 0.756 0.730 0.225 0.711 0.747 0.07388 0.04781 0.45638 0.02894 0.06473
16 30.1 0.727 0.843 0.831 0.155 0.823 0.844 0.11534 0.10380 0.57253 0.09603 0.11692
17 30.1 0.773 0.843 0.831 0.155 0.823 0.844 0.06989 0.05834 0.61799 0.05058 0.07147
18 29.8 0.818 0.854 0.844 0.146 0.838 0.857 0.03546 0.02614 0.67232 0.02020 0.03848
19 27.5 0.864 0.921 0.926 0.091 0.931 0.932 0.05737 0.06218 0.77274 0.06763 0.06809
20 26.7 0.909 0.938 0.946 0.077 0.953 0.950 0.02876 0.03660 0.83257 0.04407 0.04058
21 24.2 0.955 0.973 0.984 0.044 0.990 0.984 0.01852 0.02904 0.91082 0.03589 0.02931
0.12834 0.16262 0.93340 0.18282 0.15163
Aceptada Aceptada Rechazada Aceptada Aceptada
∆= 0.2870
Elaboración Propia
INTERPOLACION
DATOS:
20 0.294
22 X
25 0.27

X= 0.284 Valor Interpolado