AÑO TOTAL

Grafico de:
Año vs Poblacion de a
1984 270721
500000
1985 268159
450000 f(x) = 6420.94879089616 x − 12493262.8847795
1986 271770 R² = 0.926838762607958
400000
1987 272360
350000
1988 274574
300000
1989 277857
250000
1990 279551
200000
1991 276177
150000
1992 274365 100000
1993 280296 50000
1994 285809 0
1995 291538 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20

1996 297397
1997 303305
1998 310408 Resumen
1999 345878
2000 353448 Estadísticas de la regresión
2001 359635 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.962724655655997
2002 368442 Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.926838762607957
2003 377218 R^2 ajustado 0.924748441539614
2004 385667 Error típico 19804.1815309349
2005 394665 Observaciones 37
2006 403287
2007 412064 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
2008 420754 Grados de libertad
2009 428780 Regresión 1
2010 436970 Residuos 35
2011 442123 Total 36
2012 447260
2013 452981 Coeficientes
2014 454552 Intercepción -12493262.8847795
2015 456666 Variable X 1 6420.94879089616
2016 449902
2017 434308
2018 437094
2019 438090 Análisis de los residuales
2020 440563
Observación Pronóstico para Y

1 245899.516358463
2 252320.46514936
3 258741.413940255
4 265162.362731151
 5 271583.311522048
6 278004.260312945
7 284425.209103839
8 290846.157894736
9 297267.106685633
10 303688.055476528
11 310109.004267424
12 316529.953058321
13 322950.901849218
14 329371.850640113
15 335792.799431009
16 342213.748221906
17 348634.697012803
18 355055.645803697
19 361476.594594594
20 367897.543385491
21 374318.492176386
22 380739.440967282
23 387160.389758179
24 393581.338549076
25 400002.287339971
26 406423.236130867
27 412844.184921764
28 419265.133712659
29 425686.082503555
30 432107.031294452
31 438527.980085349
32 444948.928876244
33 451369.87766714
34 457790.826458037
35 464211.775248932
36 470632.724039828
37 477053.672830725
 rafico de:
Año vs Poblacion de alpacas

47795

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Valor crítico de
Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados F
F
173902164677.061 173902164677.061 443.3954078 1.8505404E-21
13727196213.8578 392205606.110222
187629360890.919

Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

610483.401328879 -20.4645414725193 4.67049E-21 -13732610.08 -11253916 -13732610
304.932427321842 21.0569562813966 1.85054E-21 5801.9030526 7039.99453 5801.90305

Residuos Residuos estándares

24821.4836415369 1.2711244325175
15838.5348506402 0.81110174213108
13028.5860597454 0.667202424354108
7197.63726884872 0.368595718167378
 2990.68847795203 0.153155115515005
-147.260312944651 -0.007541297064567
-4874.20910383947 -0.249611440257402
-14669.1578947362 -0.751217182411
-22902.1066856328 -1.17283188163315
-23392.0554765277 -1.19792248007533
-24300.0042674243 -1.24441913225982
-24991.953058321 -1.279854282989
-25553.9018492177 -1.30863204858304
-26066.8506401125 -1.33490049208758
-25384.7994310092 -1.29997220300382
3664.2517780941 0.187648733222246
4813.30298719741 0.246492398137618
4579.35419630259 0.23451172734618
6965.40540540591 0.356702972355148
9320.45661450922 0.477306687062661
11348.5078236144 0.581164517622648
13925.5590327177 0.713136997714784
16126.610241821 0.8258542715699
18482.6614509244 0.946509196932298
20751.7126600295 1.06270879531974
22356.7638691328 1.14490451886298
24125.8150782362 1.23549878980748
22857.8662873413 1.17056630186424
21573.9174964447 1.10481444344274
20873.968705548 1.06896960747447
16024.0199146513 0.8206005537306
11717.0711237565 0.600038885589754
-1467.87766714022 -0.075170976626327
-23482.8264580369 -1.20257092148303
-27117.7752489317 -1.3887190295407
-32542.7240398284 -1.66653420984384
-36490.6728307251 -1.86871125288082
Superior 95,0%
-11253916
7039.99453
 PRONOSTICO POR
AÑO TOTAL MODELO DE
REGRESION LINEAL

700000

1984 270721 245899.5 a -12493263

1985 268159 252320.5 b 6420.94879
1986 271770 258741.4 600000
1987 272360 265162.4
1988 274574 271583.3
1989 277857 278004.3 500000
1990 279551 284425.2
1991 276177 290846.2
1992 274365 297267.1
400000
1993 280296 303688.1
1994 285809 310109.0
1995 291538 316530.0
322950.9 300000
1996 297397
1997 303305 329371.9
1998 310408 335792.8
1999 345878 342213.8 200000
2000 353448 348634.7
2001 359635 355055.7
2002 368442 361476.6 100000
2003 377218 367897.5
2004 385667 374318.5
2005 394665 380739.4
0
2006 403287 387160.4

1984
1985
1986
1987

1989
1988
2007 412064 393581.3
2008 420754 400002.3
2009 428780 406423.2
2010 436970 412844.2
2011 442123 419265.1
2012 447260 425686.1
2013 452981 432107.0
2014 454552 438528.0
2015 456666 444948.9
2016 449902 451369.9
2017 434308 457790.8
2018 437094 464211.8
2019 438090 470632.7
2020 440563 477053.7
2021 483474.6
2022 489895.6
2023 496316.5
2024 502737.5
2025 509158.4
2026 515579.4
2027 522000.3
2028 528421.3
2029 534842.2
2030 541263.2
2031 547684.1
2032 554105.1
2035 573367.9
2036 579788.9
2037 586209.8
2038 592630.8
2039 599051.7
2040 605472.7
 100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000

0
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
GRAFICA DE DATOS REALES VS PRON
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 ES VS PRONOSTICO
 PRONOSTICO
AÑO TOTAL
MEDIA MOVIL 2 DA
ERROR
1984 270721 500000
1985 268159
450000
1986 271770 269440 2330
1987 272360 269965 2395.5
400000
1988 274574 272065 2509
1989 277857 273467 4390 350000
1990 279551 276216 3335.5
1991 276177 278704 2527 300000
1992 274365 277864 3499
1993 280296 275271 5025 250000

1994 285809 277331 8478.5

200000
1995 291538 283053 8485.5
1996 297397 288674 8723.5 150000
1997 303305 294468 8837.5
1998 310408 300351 10057 100000
1999 345878 306857 39021.5
2000 353448 328143 25305 50000
2001 359635 349663 9972
0
2002 368442 356542 11900.5 1980 1990 2000
2003 377218 364039 13179.5
2004 385667 372830 12837
2005 394665 381443 13222.5
2006 403287 390166 13121
2007 412064 398976 13088
2008 420754 407676 13078.5
2009 428780 416409 12371
2010 436970 424767 12203
2011 442123 432875 9248
2012 447260 439547 7713.5
2013 452981 444692 8289.5
2014 454552 450121 4431.5 500000
2015 456666 453767 2899.5 450000
455609 5707 400000
2016 449902
350000
2017 434308 453284 18976
300000
2018 437094 442105 5011
250000
2019 438090 435701 2389 200000
2020 440563 437592 2971 150000
2021 439327 439327 0 100000
2022 439945 439945 0 50000
2023 439636 439636 0 0
1 3 5
2024 439790 439790 0
2025 439713 439713 0
 50000
0
1 3 5

2026 439752 439752 0

2027 439732 439732 0
2028 439742 439742 0
2029 439737 439737 0
2030 439739 439739 0
2031 439738 439738 0
2032 439739 439739 0
2035 439739 439739 0
2036 439739 439739 0
2037 439739 439739 0
2038 439739 439739 0
2039 439739 439739 0
2040 439739 439739 0
327528.5
 DATOS DEL GRAFICO vs PRONOSTICO

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Chart Title
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

AÑO TOTAL
50000
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37

AÑO TOTAL
AÑO MACHOS HEMBRAS

1984 90095 180626

1985 87767 180392
1986 91525 180245
1987 89128 183232 Resumen de analisis para machos
1988 86099 188475
1989 88638 189219 Estadísticas de la regresión
1990 90890 188661 Coeficiente de correlación múltiple
1991 88190 187987 Coeficiente de determinación R^2
1992 92044 182321 R^2 ajustado
1993 90642 189654 Error típico
1994 92373 193436 Observaciones
1995 93201 198337
1996 96931 200466 ANÁLISIS D
1997 97765 205540
1998 99700 210708 Regresión
1999 109001 236877 Residuos
2000 110313 243135 Total
2001 111494 248141
2002 112653 255789
2003 114193 263025 Intercepción
2004 115584 270083 Variable X 1
2005 117008 277657
2006 118259 285028
2007 119478 292586
2008 120696 300058 Análisis de los residuales
2009 122120 306660
2010 127197 309773 Observación
2011 134133 307990 1
2012 142097 305163 2
2013 109831 343150 3
2014 133422 321130 4
2015 157050 299616 5
2016 137879 312023 6
2017 128645 305663 7
2018 140884 296210 8
2019 137991 300099 9
2020 139011 301552 10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
 Chart Title
400000
350000
300000 R² ==0.892099043793163
f(x) 4710.39094357516 x − 9180453.83119963

nalisis para machos 250000

200000
150000
s de la regresión f(x) = 1710.55784732101 x − 3312809.0535799
100000
0.937436850392642 R² = 0.878787848474077
50000
0.878787848474076 0
0.875324644144764 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

6974.09870509867 MACHOS Linear (MACHOS) Li

37 HEMBRAS Linear (HEMBRAS) Li

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA PARA MACHOS

Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados F
1 12341902372.6147 12341902372.6147 253.749928
35 1702331846.19607 48638052.748459
36 14044234218.8108

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

-3312809.0535799 214983.461550354 -15.4095995556568 3.61791E-17
1710.55784732101 107.382819290258 15.9295300554303 1.30411E-17

Pronóstico para Y Residuos Residuos estándares

80937.7155049788 9157.28449502122 1.33166763706431
82648.2733522998 5118.72664770018 0.744373795902824
84358.8311996209 7166.16880037915 1.04211626038192
86069.3890469419 3058.61095305812 0.44478832374078
87779.9468942629 -1680.94689426292 -0.24444611062709
89490.504741584 -852.504741583951 -0.12397266628862
91201.0625889045 -311.062588904519 -0.045235242278517
92911.6204362255 -4721.62043622555 -0.686625946025986
94622.1782835466 -2578.17828354659 -0.374923000879536
96332.7361308676 -5690.73613086762 -0.827556372270535
98043.2939781887 -5670.29397818865 -0.8245836402156
99753.8518255097 -6552.85182550969 -0.952926679437933
101464.409672831 -4533.40967283072 -0.659256021820144
103174.967520152 -5409.96752015175 -0.786726531000767
104885.525367473 -5185.52536747279 -0.754087777527712
106596.083214794 2404.91678520618 0.349727023817271
108306.641062115 2006.35893788515 0.291768074626165
110017.198909436 1476.80109056411 0.21475888619107
111727.756756757 925.24324324308 0.134550420936373
113438.314604078 754.685395922046 0.109747613330225
115148.872451399 435.127548601013 0.06327697635496
116859.43029872 148.569701279979 0.021605254609096
118569.988146041 -310.988146041054 -0.045224416672723
120280.545993362 -802.545993361622 -0.116707581510257
121991.103840683 -1295.10384068266 -0.188336168021477
123701.661688004 -1581.66168800369 -0.230007889767341
125412.219535325 1784.78046467528 0.259545762214212
127122.777382646 7010.22261735424 1.01943830545207
128833.335229967 13263.6647700332 1.92882432916947
130543.893077288 -20712.8930772878 -3.01210357677477
132254.450924609 1167.54907539114 0.169786940574804
133965.00877193 23084.9912280701 3.35705805984826
135675.566619251 2203.43338074908 0.320426969934819
137386.124466572 -8741.12446657196 -1.27114894923421
139096.682313893 1787.31768610701 0.259914729201155
140807.240161214 -2816.24016121402 -0.409542357554635
142517.798008535 -3506.79800853506 -0.509964435442266
 Chart Title

53.83119963

09.0535799

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Linear (MACHOS) Linear (MACHOS)

Linear (HEMBRAS) Linear (HEMBRAS)

Valor crítico de F
1.3041125603E-17

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
-3749248.683316 -2876369.42 -3749248.68 -2876369.42
1492.55913452198 1928.55656 1492.55913 1928.55656
 Resumen de analisis para hembras

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.944509949017565
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.892099043793163
R^2 ajustado 0.88901615933011
Error típico 17983.8357996135
Observaciones 37

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA PARA HEMBRA

Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 93588068024.666
Residuos 35 11319642252.3611
Total 36 104907710277.027

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción -9180453.83119962 554369.451256481
Variable X 1 4710.39094357516 276.903879838083

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico para Y Residuos

1 164961.800853485 15664.1991465148
2 169672.191797061 10719.8082029391
3 174382.582740635 5862.41725936532
4 179092.97368421 4139.02631578967
5 183803.364627786 4671.63537221402
6 188513.755571362 705.244428638369
7 193224.146514935 -4563.14651493542
8 197934.537458511 -9947.53745851107
9 202644.928402087 -20323.9284020867
10 207355.319345662 -17701.3193456624
11 212065.710289236 -18629.7102892362
12 216776.101232812 -18439.1012328118
13 221486.492176387 -21020.4921763875
14 226196.883119963 -20656.8831199631
15 230907.274063537 -20199.2740635369
16 235617.665007113 1259.33499288745
17 240328.055950688 2806.9440493118
18 245038.446894262 3102.55310573801
19 249748.837837838 6040.16216216236
20 254459.228781413 8565.77121858671
21 259169.619724989 10913.3802750111
22 263880.010668563 13776.9893314373
23 268590.401612138 16437.5983878616
24 273300.792555714 19285.207444286
25 278011.18349929 22046.8165007103
26 282721.574442863 23938.4255571365
27 287431.965386439 22341.0346135609
28 292142.356330015 15847.6436699852
29 296852.74727359 8310.25272640959
30 301563.138217164 41586.8617828358
31 306273.52916074 14856.4708392601
32 310983.920104315 -11367.9201043155
33 315694.311047889 -3671.31104788929
34 320404.701991465 -14741.7019914649
35 325115.092935041 -28905.0929350406
36 329825.483878616 -29726.4838786162
37 334535.87482219 -32983.87482219
HEMBRA
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
93588068024.666 289.371546 1.69095E-18
323418350.067459

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
-16.5601726617368 3.91232E-18 -10305884 -8055024 -10305884 -8055024
17.0109243190436 1.69095E-18 4148.24618 5272.53571 4148.24618 5272.53571

Residuos estándares
0.883370913954381
0.604535647247114
0.330606681129927
0.233417324771044
0.263453418193582
0.039771737428793
-0.257335269406551
-0.560984010361968
-1.14615289551457
-0.998252799413322
-1.05060871934647
-1.0398594627259
-1.18543509386867
-1.16492963032781
-1.13912310637928
0.071019264581378
 0.158295531553624
0.174966185438059
0.340630473330596
0.483060326245319
0.615452000941474
0.776943113619654
0.926986191587787
1.08757499611138
1.24331389430466
1.34998978659829
1.25990610695593
0.893716132043241
0.468650550050858
2.34526028161305
0.837819674064463
-0.641085438098755
-0.207040868508516
-0.831347369861609
-1.63008131632726
-1.67640305047744
-1.86010120114681
 PRONOSTICO POR MODELO
AÑO MACHOS HEMBRAS
DE REGRESION LINEAL

MACHOS HEMBRAS

1984 90095 180626 80937.71 164961.80

1985 87767 180392 82648.27 169672.19
1986 91525 180245 84358.83 174382.58
1987 89128 183232 86069.39 179092.97
1988 86099 188475 87779.95 183803.37
1989 88638 189219 89490.50 188513.76
1990 90890 188661 91201.06 193224.15
1991 88190 187987 92911.62 197934.54
1992 92044 182321 94622.18 202644.93
1993 90642 189654 96332.74 207355.32
1994 92373 193436 98043.29 212065.71
1995 93201 198337 99753.85 216776.10
1996 96931 200466 101464.41 221486.49
1997 97765 205540 103174.97 226196.88
1998 99700 210708 104885.52 230907.28
1999 109001 236877 106596.08 235617.67
2000 110313 243135 108306.64 240328.06
2001 111494 248141 110017.20 245038.45
2002 112653 255789 111727.76 249748.84
2003 114193 263025 113438.31 254459.23
2004 115584 270083 115148.87 259169.62
2005 117008 277657 116859.43 263880.01
2006 118259 285028 118569.99 268590.40
2007 119478 292586 120280.54 273300.79
2008 120696 300058 121991.10 278011.18
2009 122120 306660 123701.66 282721.58
2010 127197 309773 125412.22 287431.97
2011 134133 307990 127122.78 292142.36
2012 142097 305163 128833.33 296852.75
2013 109831 343150 130543.89 301563.14
2014 133422 321130 132254.45 306273.53
2015 157050 299616 133965.01 310983.92
2016 137879 312023 135675.57 315694.31
2017 128645 305663 137386.12 320404.70
2018 140884 296210 139096.68 325115.09
2019 137991 300099 140807.24 329825.48
2020 139011 301552 142517.80 334535.88
2021 144228.35 339246.27
2022 145938.91 343956.66
2023 147649.47 348667.05
2024 149360.03 353377.44
2025 151070.59 358087.83
2026 152781.14 362798.22
2027 154491.70 367508.61
2028 156202.26 372219.00
2029 157912.82 376929.39
2030 159623.38 381639.79
2031 161333.93 386350.18
2032 163044.49 391060.57
2035 168176.16 405191.74
2036 169886.72 409902.13
2037 171597.28 414612.52
2038 173307.84 419322.91
2039 175018.40 424033.30
2040 176728.95 428743.69