AÑO P (mm) Precipitaciones Maximas Mensual Estacion Dos de Mayo: Apor

2003 197.6 268.61

2004 141.9 212.34
2005 168.6 197.64
2006 160.8 194.05
2007 212.3 184.4
2008 142.3 175.87
2009 194.0 168.58
2010 175.9 160.8
2011 184.4 142.29
2012 268.6 141.95
al Estacion Dos de Mayo: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
 Cuadro 1.0
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Normal 2 Parametros: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
P (X) ln P P no exc P exc Tr (años)
268.6 5.59 97.9% 2.1% 48.8
212.3 5.36 79.3% 20.7% 4.8
197.6 5.29 67.1% 32.9% 3.0
194.0 5.27 63.6% 36.4% 2.7
184.4 5.22 53.3% 46.7% 2.1
175.9 5.17 43.4% 56.6% 1.8
168.6 5.13 35.0% 65.0% 1.5
160.8 5.08 26.4% 73.6% 1.4
142.3 4.96 10.2% 89.8% 1.1
141.9 4.96 10.0% 90.0% 1.1

LOG NORMAL

Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr Pexc P no exc P (mm) ln P (mm)

2 0.5 0.5 181.5 5.20 181.5
5 0.2 0.8 213.3 5.36 213.3
10 0.1 0.9 232.1 5.45 232.1
25 0.04 0.96 254.0 5.54 254.0
50 0.02 0.98 269.2 5.60 269.2
100 0.01 0.99 283.6 5.65 283.6
media 184.7 5.20 200 0.005 0.995 297.5 5.70 297.5
desv. Est 37.4 0.19
coef asimet 1.18 0.66
 Cuadro 2.0

Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Normal 3 Parametros: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
P (X) ln (P-a) P exc Tr
268.6 5.05 4.4% 22.9
212.3 4.60 19.7% 5.1
197.6 4.44 29.2% 3.4
194.0 4.40 32.1% 3.1
184.4 4.27 41.2% 2.4
175.9 4.14 50.8% 2.0
168.6 4.02 60.1% 1.7
160.8 3.87 70.6% 1.4
142.3 3.38 93.0% 1.1
141.9 3.37 93.3% 1.1

LOG NORMAL 3

Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr P (mm)
2 176.56
5 211.79
10 237.38
25 272.02
50 299.37
100 327.96
media 184.7 4.15 200 357.95
desv. Est 37.4 0.52
coef asim 1.18 -0.12193
a 112.895

mediana 180.2
 Cuadro 3.0
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Gumbel: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
VALORES EXTREMOS I - GUMBEL n= 10
yn medio = 0.4952
P (X) Y=(x-u)/a P exc Tr Sn = 0.9496
268.6 2.63 7.0% 14.3 parámetros
212.3 1.20 26.1% 3.8 a = Sx / Sn = 39.39
197.6 0.82 35.5% 2.8 u = x-a*yn= 165.15
194.0 0.73 38.1% 2.6
184.4 0.49 45.8% 2.2 P(x<=X) = e ^ -e ^ -y
175.9 0.27 53.3% 1.9 P(x>=X) = 1- e ^ -e ^ -y
168.6 0.09 60.0% 1.7 P(x>=X) = 1 / Tr
160.8 -0.11 67.2% 1.5 Q = -ln(-ln(1-1/Tr))*a+u
142.3 -0.58 83.2% 1.2
141.9 -0.59 83.5% 1.2 Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr P (mm)
2 179.59
5 224.24
10 253.80
25 291.15
50 318.86
100 346.37
200 373.77

x medio 184.7 0.4952

Sx 37.4 0.9496
 Cuadro 4.0
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Pearson III: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
Q (X) log Q
268.6 2.43 PEARSON III
212.3 2.33
197.6 2.30 Q=mQ + K * sQ
194.0 2.29
184.4 2.27 Q = 684.7 + 888.6 * K
175.9 2.25
168.6 2.23 Ejemplo de cálculo
160.8 2.21 K (de tablas)
142.3 2.15 Tr g= 1.1 g=1.2 g=1.177 P (mm)
141.9 2.15 2 -0.180 -0.195 -0.207 176.93
5 0.745 0.732 0.722 211.67
10 1.341 1.340 1.339 234.76
25 2.066 2.087 2.103 263.34
50 2.585 2.626 2.658 284.08
100 3.087 3.149 3.197 304.25
200 3.575 3.661 3.727 324.09

LOG PEARSON III

log Q=mlog Q + K * slogQ

log Q=2.426 + 0.686 *K

Ejemplo de cálculo
K (de tablas)
Tr g=0.6 g=0.7 g=0.658 log P P (mm)
2 -0.099 -0.116 -0.109 2.25 177.78
5 0.800 0.790 0.794 2.33 211.39
10 1.328 1.328 1.328 2.37 234.18
25 1.939 1.939 1.939 2.42 263.29
50 2.359 2.359 2.359 2.46 285.38
100 2.755 2.755 2.755 2.49 307.90
200 3.132 3.132 3.132 2.52 330.98

media 184.7 2.259

desv. Est 37.4 0.083
coef asimet 1.177 0.658
 Cuadro 5.0
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Gamma 2 Parametros: Aporte Quebrada Tantash
Q (X) P exc Tr
268.6 2.1% 48.18
212.3 22.0% 4.55
197.6 34.2% 2.92
194.0 37.7% 2.65
184.4 47.5% 2.10
175.9 56.8% 1.76
168.6 64.6% 1.55
160.8 72.5% 1.38
142.3 87.8% 1.14
141.9 88.0% 1.14

media 184.7
varianza 1399.4
desv. Est 37.4 Tr P exc = 1/T P no exc P (mm)
b 7.58 2 50% 50% 182.14
a 24.4 5 20% 80% 215.18
10 10% 90% 233.93
Parámetros: 25 4% 96% 255.06
50 2% 98% 269.35
Forma: =/>0, 100 1.0% 99.0% 282.63
Escala: 2/>0 200 0.5% 99.5% 295.15
 CUADRO Nº 6.0: PRECIPITACIONES TOTAL MENSUAL DIVERSOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO: APORTE QUEBRADA TANTASH
Tr P exc = 1/T Gumbel Log N 2 Log N 3 Gama Pearson III Log P III
2 50% 179.59 181.53 176.56 182.14 176.93 177.78
5 20% 224.24 213.32 211.79 215.18 211.67 211.39
10 10% 253.80 232.10 237.38 233.93 234.76 234.18
25 4% 291.15 253.95 272.02 255.06 263.34 263.29
50 2% 318.86 269.15 299.37 269.35 284.08 285.38
100 1% 346.37 283.60 327.96 282.63 304.25 307.90
200 0.5% 373.77 297.50 357.95 295.15 324.09 330.98
Elaboración Propia
GRAFICO Nº 1.0

400.00
PRECIPITACION (mm)

Log N 2

Log N 3
350.00
Log P III

Gama

300.00
Gumbel

Pearson III

250.00

200.00

150.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 PERIODO
90 DE
100RETORNO
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200