Pilsen Callao Año Mes Ventas en Unidades Ventas (Millones de Unidades)

PILSEN CALLAO
Ventas (Millones de
Año Mes Ventas en unidades
unidades)
Enero 56.89 56,893,952
Febrero 57.35 57,354,663
Marzo 56.89 56,889,932
Abril 56.74 56,737,743
Mayo 56.16 56,163,093
Junio 57.64 57,639,948
2019
Julio 56.46 56,457,388
Agosto 57.13 57,132,984
Setiembre 56.79 56,793,923
Octubre 56.33 56,328,473
Noviembre 56.79 56,794,884
Diciembre 57.52 57,521,903
Enero 57.24 57,235,583
Febrero 56.47 56,467,599
Marzo 41.27 41,267,944
Abril 33.59 33,593,922
Mayo 33.44 33,439,209
Junio 34.30 34,298,349
2020
Julio 35.48 35,483,992
Agosto 36.55 36,548,993
Setiembre 35.48 35,482,939
Octubre 34.65 34,647,743
Noviembre 34.88 34,883,993
Diciembre 38.84 38,835,930
Enero 46.23 46,234,572
Febrero 46.68 46,683,203
Marzo 46.40 46,403,232
Abril 47.77 47,772,899
Mayo 47.82 47,820,482
Junio 48.23 48,229,388
2021
Julio 48.63 48,630,992
Agosto 48.73 48,728,382
Setiembre 49.13 49,132,966
Octubre 49.08 49,078,354
Noviembre 49.19 49,186,466
Diciembre 50.17 50,174,838
PILSEN CALLAO
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
Ventas (Millones de
Mes Ventas en unidades
unidades)
Enero 46.23 46,234,572

Febrero 46.68 46,683,203
Marzo 46.40 46,403,232
Abril 47.77 47,772,899
Mayo 47.82 47,820,482
Junio 48.23 48,229,388
Julio 48.63 48,630,992
Agosto 48.73 48,728,382
Setiembre 49.13 49,132,966
Octubre 49.08 49,078,354
Noviembre 49.19 49,186,466
Diciembre 50.17 50,174,838
Pilsen Callao
51,000,000
50,000,000
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
44,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
70.00
Unidades venidas (millones)

60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
Enero Febrero Marzo
CUSQUEÑA
Ventas (Millones de
unidades)
Enero 14.96 14,958,847
Febrero 15.64 15,636,278
Marzo 14.59 14,589,348
Abril 14.64 14,637,728
Mayo 15.24 15,242,883
Junio 14.74 14,739,920
2019
Julio 14.84 14,837,892
Agosto 15.02 15,017,728
Setiembre 14.80 14,803,882
Octubre 14.50 14,501,874
Noviembre 14.88 14,878,596
Diciembre 15.65 15,647,935
Enero 14.36 14,357,834
Febrero 13.58 13,575,991
Marzo 10.68 10,679,445
Abril 9.94 9,939,227
Mayo 8.39 8,392,093
Junio 7.53 7,532,495
2020
Julio 7.84 7,839,925
Agosto 6.49 6,489,930
Setiembre 5.43 5,429,392
Octubre 6.48 6,477,433
Noviembre 6.84 6,839,932
Diciembre 9.08 9,083,306
Enero 10.06 10,056,784
Febrero 10.65 10,645,728
Marzo 11.35 11,345,728
Abril 11.43 11,432,030
Mayo 11.93 11,932,322
Junio 12.53 12,528,992
2021
Julio 12.70 12,704,823
Agosto 12.92 12,917,453
Setiembre 13.11 13,106,929
Octubre 13.38 13,383,821
Noviembre 13.33 13,329,667
Diciembre 13.98 13,983,547
CUSQUEÑA
18,000,000
LAO CUSQUEÑA
18,000,000
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
0 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Ventas (Millones de
unidades)
Enero 10.06 10,056,784

Febrero 10.65 10,645,728
Marzo 11.35 11,345,728
Abril 11.43 11,432,030
Mayo 11.93 11,932,322
Junio 12.53 12,528,992
Julio 12.70 12,704,823
Agosto 12.92 12,917,453
Setiembre 13.11 13,106,929
Octubre 13.38 13,383,821
Noviembre 13.33 13,329,667
Diciembre 13.98 13,983,547
Cusqueña
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ventas (millones) en el año 2019

00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Setiembre Octubre No
Meses
PILSEN CALLAO CUSQUEÑA CRISTAL

CRISTAL
Ventas (Millones de
unidades)
Enero 34.90 34,897,678
Febrero 34.08 34,077,584
Marzo 35.13 35,134,833
Abril 35.67 35,674,893
Mayo 35.20 35,198,839
Junio 34.65 34,645,448
2019
Julio 35.79 35,788,494
Agosto 34.47 34,467,889
Setiembre 35.45 35,450,478
Octubre 35.82 35,819,583
Noviembre 34.99 34,994,479
Diciembre 35.62 35,615,378
Enero 34.91 34,905,954
Febrero 32.46 32,464,734
Marzo 30.24 30,238,346
Abril 17.76 17,764,830
Mayo 16.94 16,939,302
Junio 18.53 18,532,495
2020
Julio 18.39 18,394,883
Agosto 19.48 19,484,838
Setiembre 20.94 20,938,474
Octubre 21.94 21,938,849
Noviembre 21.57 21,573,882
Diciembre 22.38 22,377,382
Enero 21.97 21,974,736
Febrero 22.85 22,854,257
Marzo 23.54 23,537,746
Abril 23.65 23,646,277
Mayo 24.78 24,784,993
Junio 24.82 24,817,453
2021
Julio 25.43 25,429,939
Agosto 25.94 25,940,059
Setiembre 26.33 26,327,365
Octubre 27.28 27,283,749
Noviembre 28.12 28,118,762
Diciembre 30.14 30,138,748
CUSQUEÑA CR
40,000,000
CUSQUEÑA CR
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ventas (Millones de
unidades)
Enero 21.97 21,974,736

Febrero 22.85 22,854,257
Marzo 23.54 23,537,746
Abril 23.65 23,646,277
Mayo 24.78 24,784,993
Junio 24.82 24,817,453
Julio 25.43 25,429,939
Agosto 25.94 25,940,059
Setiembre 26.33 26,327,365
Octubre 27.28 27,283,749
Noviembre 28.12 28,118,762
Diciembre 30.14 30,138,748
Cristal
31,000,000
29,000,000
27,000,000
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
27,000,000
25,000,000
23,000,000
21,000,000
19,000,000
17,000,000
10 11 12 15,000,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
sto Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
STAL
CRISTAL
CRISTAL
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
Desfase 1 Desfase 2
Año Mes Ventas(unidades)
periodo Yt-1 periodo Yt-2
Enero 46,234,572
Febrero 46,683,203 46,234,572 0
Marzo 46,403,232 46,683,203 46,234,572
Abril 47,772,899 46,403,232 46,683,203
Mayo 47,820,482 47,772,899 46,403,232
Junio 48,229,388 47,820,482 47,772,899
2021
Julio 48,630,992 48,229,388 47,820,482
Agosto 48,728,382 48,630,992 48,229,388
Setiembre 49,132,966 48,728,382 48,630,992
Octubre 49,078,354 49,132,966 48,728,382
Noviembre 49,186,466 49,078,354 49,132,966
Diciembre 50,174,838 49,186,466 49,078,354
Desfase : K = 1 periodo
Periodo Desfase 1 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )
Mes Ventas (unidades)
t periodo Yt-1
1 Enero 46,234,572 -1,938,409
2 Febrero 46,683,203 46,234,572 -1,489,778
3 Marzo 46,403,232 46,683,203 -1,769,749
4 Abril 47,772,899 46,403,232 -400,082
5 Mayo 47,820,482 47,772,899 -352,499
6 Junio 48,229,388 47,820,482 56,407
7 Julio 48,630,992 48,229,388 458,011
8 Agosto 48,728,382 48,630,992 555,401
9 Setiembre 49,132,966 48,728,382 959,985
10 Octubre 49,078,354 49,132,966 905,373
11 Noviembre 49,186,466 49,078,354 1,013,485
12 Diciembre 50,174,838 49,186,466 2,001,857
Total 578,075,774 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 48,172,981
rk 0.65801
t periodo Yt-2
1 Enero 46,234,572 -1,938,409
2 Febrero 46,683,203 -1,489,778
3 Marzo 46,403,232 46,234,572 -1,769,749
4 Abril 47,772,899 46,683,203 -400,082
5 Mayo 47,820,482 46,403,232 -352,499
6 Junio 48,229,388 47,772,899 56,407
7 Julio 48,630,992 47,820,482 458,011
8 Agosto 48,728,382 48,229,388 555,401
9 Setiembre 49,132,966 48,630,992 959,985
10 Octubre 49,078,354 48,728,382 905,373
11 Noviembre 49,186,466 49,132,966 1,013,485
12 Diciembre 50,174,838 49,078,354 2,001,857
Total 578,075,774 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 48,172,981
rk 0.49283
t periodo Yt-3
1 Enero 46,234,572 -1,938,409
2 Febrero 46,683,203 -1,489,778
3 Marzo 46,403,232 -1,769,749
4 Abril 47,772,899 46,234,572 -400,082
5 Mayo 47,820,482 46,683,203 -352,499
6 Junio 48,229,388 46,403,232 56,407
7 Julio 48,630,992 47,772,899 458,011
8 Agosto 48,728,382 47,820,482 555,401
9 Setiembre 49,132,966 48,229,388 959,985
10 Octubre 49,078,354 48,630,992 905,373
11 Noviembre 49,186,466 48,728,382 1,013,485
12 Diciembre 50,174,838 49,132,966 2,001,857
Total 578,075,774 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 48,172,981
rk 0.22619
Periodo Desfase 4
Mes Ventas (unidades) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )
t periodo Yt-4
1 Enero 46,234,572 -1,938,409
2 Febrero 46,683,203 -1,489,778
3 Marzo 46,403,232 -1,769,749
4 Abril 47,772,899 -400,082
5 Mayo 47,820,482 46,234,572 -352,499
6 Junio 48,229,388 46,683,203 56,407
7 Julio 48,630,992 46,403,232 458,011
8 Agosto 48,728,382 47,772,899 555,401
9 Setiembre 49,132,966 47,820,482 959,985
10 Octubre 49,078,354 48,229,388 905,373
11 Noviembre 49,186,466 48,630,992 1,013,485
12 Diciembre 50,174,838 48,728,382 2,001,857
Total 578,075,774 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 48,172,981
rk 0.05124
Desfase 3 V
Desfase 4 periodo Yt-4
periodo Yt-3
51,000,000
50,000,000
49,000,000
46,234,572 48,000,000
46,683,203 46,234,572 47,000,000
46,403,232 46,683,203 46,000,000
47,772,899 46,403,232 45,000,000
47,820,482 47,772,899 44,000,000
48,229,388 47,820,482 1 2 3
48,630,992 48,229,388
48,728,382 48,630,992
49,132,966 48,728,382
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
3,757,430,097,417
-1,938,409 2,219,438,985,877 2,887,799,654,567
-1,489,778 3,132,012,112,917 2,636,533,668,977
-1,769,749 160,065,740,085 708,045,081,057
-400,082 124,255,662,501 141,028,630,348
-352,499 3,181,730,847 -19,883,361,744
56,407 209,773,923,451 25,834,940,741
458,011 308,470,085,667 254,379,598,509
555,401 921,570,880,230 533,176,376,421
959,985 819,699,967,338 869,144,188,512
905,373 1,027,151,507,397 917,581,635,095
1,013,485 4,007,430,781,163 2,028,851,539,088
16,690,481,474,890 10,982,491,951,569
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
3,757,430,097,417
2,219,438,985,877
-1,938,409 3,132,012,112,917 3,430,498,007,367
-1,489,778 160,065,740,085 596,033,676,773
-1,769,749 124,255,662,501 623,835,106,459
-400,082 3,181,730,847 -22,567,368,095
-352,499 209,773,923,451 -161,448,437,074
56,407 308,470,085,667 31,328,402,239
458,011 921,570,880,230 439,683,453,502
555,401 819,699,967,338 502,844,826,111
959,985 1,027,151,507,397 972,930,068,813
905,373 4,007,430,781,163 1,812,426,793,123
16,690,481,474,890 8,225,564,529,218
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
3,757,430,097,417
2,219,438,985,877
3,132,012,112,917
-1,938,409 160,065,740,085 775,522,939,287
-1,489,778 124,255,662,501 525,145,562,268
-1,769,749 3,181,730,847 -99,825,946,286
-400,082 209,773,923,451 -183,241,966,557
-352,499 308,470,085,667 -195,778,330,916
56,407 921,570,880,230 54,149,704,496
458,011 819,699,967,338 414,670,565,872
555,401 1,027,151,507,397 562,890,321,004
959,985 4,007,430,781,163 1,921,752,198,505
16,690,481,474,890 3,775,285,047,673
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
3,757,430,097,417
2,219,438,985,877
3,132,012,112,917
160,065,740,085
-1,938,409 124,255,662,501 683,287,615,909
-1,489,778 3,181,730,847 -84,033,668,751
-1,769,749 209,773,923,451 -810,564,290,616
-400,082 308,470,085,667 -222,205,968,768
-352,499 921,570,880,230 -338,393,853,763
56,407 819,699,967,338 51,069,214,514
458,011 1,027,151,507,397 464,187,033,086
555,401 4,007,430,781,163 1,111,832,953,447
16,690,481,474,890 855,179,035,059
VENTAS PILSEN CALLAO 2021
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Desfase rk R2 R
1 0.65801 0.8284 0.91016482
2 0.49283 0.8364 0.91454907
3 0.22619 0.8726 0.93413061
4 0.05124 0.7502 0.86614087
K=1
50,000,000
R² = 0.828362031570928
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
44,000,000
45,500,000 46,500,000 47,500,000 48,500,000 49,500,000 50,500,000 51,500,000
K=2
51,000,000
50,000,000
R² = 0.836385597934216
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,500,000 46,500,000 47,500,000 48,500,000 49,500,000 50,500,000 51,500,0
K=3
50,000,000
R² = 0.872613731618085
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
44,000,000
46,500,000 47,500,000 48,500,000 49,500,000 50,500,000 51,500,000
K=4
51,000,000
50,000,000
49,000,000
R² = 0.750199685445273
48,000,000
K=4
51,000,000
50,000,000
49,000,000
R² = 0.750199685445273
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
44,000,000
43,000,000
46,500,000 47,500,000 48,500,000 49,500,000 50,500,000
R
0.94
0.92
0.9
0.88
0.86
0.84
10 11 12
0.82
1 2 3 4
El patrón es tendecia
50,500,000 51,500,000
0,000 50,500,000 51,500,000
50,500,000 51,500,000
,000 50,500,000 51,500,000
Promedio Móvil Doble
K= 2
Año T Ventas Mt
1 46,234,572
2 46,683,203 46,458,888
3 46,403,232 46,543,218
4 47,772,899 47,088,066
5 47,820,482 47,796,691
6 48,229,388 48,024,935
2021
7 48,630,992 48,430,190
8 48,728,382 48,679,687
9 49,132,966 48,930,674
10 49,078,354 49,105,660
11 49,186,466 49,132,410
12 50,174,838 49,680,652
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
22 Pronóstico p= 10
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 320,341,829,629
RECM 565,987
DAM 431,497
EPAM 0.885%
EPM 0.228%
SELECCIÓN DE MÉTODOS DE PRONÓSTICOS
Pronostico
M't Valor a Valor b et
Yt+p
46,501,053 46,585,383 84,330

46,815,642 47,360,490 544,848 46,669,713 1,103,187
47,442,378 48,151,003 708,625 47,905,338 -84,856
47,910,813 48,139,057 228,245 48,859,628 -630,240
48,227,563 48,632,818 405,255 48,367,302 263,690
48,554,939 48,804,436 249,497 49,038,073 -309,691
48,805,181 49,056,168 250,987 49,053,933 79,034
49,018,167 49,193,153 174,986 49,307,155 -228,801
49,119,035 49,145,785 26,750 49,368,139 -181,673
49,406,531 49,954,773 548,242 49,172,535 1,002,303
Pronóstico p= 1 50,503,015
1,012,954
-768
abs(e) et2 |et|/Yt et/Yt
1,103,187 1,217,020,453,782 2.31% 2.309%

84,856 7,200,455,880 0.18% -0.177%
630,240 397,202,457,600 1.31% -1.307%
263,690 69,532,547,945 0.54% 0.542%
309,691 95,908,205,790 0.64% -0.636%
79,034 6,246,294,122 0.16% 0.161%
228,801 52,349,668,800 0.47% -0.466%
181,673 33,005,078,929 0.37% -0.369%
1,002,303 1,004,611,303,809 2.00% 1.998%
N.C 95%
Alfa 5%
Alfa/2 3%
n 11
gl 10
tcrittico 2.23
p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
LI Ypronost Ls
13 49,541,580 50,503,015 51,464,450
14 50,089,822 51,051,257 52,012,692
15 50,638,064 51,599,499 52,560,934
16 51,186,306 52,147,741 53,109,176
17 51,734,548 52,695,983 53,657,418
18 52,282,790 53,244,225 54,205,660
19 52,831,032 53,792,467 54,753,902
20 53,379,274 54,340,709 55,302,144
21 53,927,516 54,888,951 55,850,386
22 54,475,758 55,437,193 56,398,628
23 55,024,000 55,985,435 56,946,870
24 55,572,242 56,533,677 57,495,112
Rango
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
1,922,870
^
Atenuación Doble
Año T Ventas At A´t

1 46,234,572 46,234,572 46,234,572
2 46,683,203 46,491,886 46,382,155
3 46,403,232 46,441,038 46,415,928
4 47,772,899 47,204,931 46,868,462
5 47,820,482 47,557,982 47,263,938
6 48,229,388 47,943,069 47,653,455
2021
7 48,630,992 48,337,629 48,045,865
8 48,728,382 48,561,746 48,341,750
9 49,132,966 48,889,371 48,655,840
10 49,078,354 48,997,763 48,851,951
11 49,186,466 49,105,994 48,997,658
12 50,174,838 49,719,032 49,411,404
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 261,552,876,177
RECM 511,422
DAM 358,486
EPAM 0.743%
EPM 0.235%
α 0.573552779171785
at bt Yt+p Error |et|
46,234,572
46,601,616 147,583 46,234,572 448,631 448,631
46,466,149 33,773 46,749,199 -345,967 345,967
47,541,399 452,535 46,499,921 1,272,978 1,272,978
47,852,025 395,476 47,993,934 -173,452 173,452
48,232,682 389,517 48,247,501 -18,113 18,113
48,629,393 392,410 48,622,199 8,793 8,793
48,781,743 295,885 49,021,803 -293,421 293,421
49,122,902 314,089 49,077,628 55,338 55,338
49,143,575 196,111 49,436,992 -358,638 358,638
49,214,330 145,707 49,339,686 -153,220 153,220
50,026,661 413,746 49,360,037 814,801 814,801
stico p= 1 50,440,407
stico p= 2 50,854,153
stico p= 3 51,267,900
stico p= 4 51,681,646
stico p= 5 52,095,393
stico p= 6 52,509,139
stico p= 7 52,922,885
stico p= 8 53,336,632
stico p= 9 53,750,378
tico p= 10 54,164,124
tico p= 11 54,577,871
tico p= 12 54,991,617
1,257,730
114,339
^
(Yt - Yt)2 |e|/Y e/Y
p
1
201,269,774,161 0.961% 0.961% 2
119,693,243,793 0.746% -0.746% 3
1,620,472,427,796 2.665% 2.665% 4
30,085,494,161 0.363% -0.363% 5
328,088,420 0.038% -0.038% 6
77,313,155 0.018% 0.018% 7
86,095,683,644 0.602% -0.602% 8
3,062,307,268 0.113% 0.113% 9
128,621,041,433 0.731% -0.731% 10
23,476,303,203 0.312% -0.312% 11
663,899,960,913 1.624% 1.624% 12
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
0<α<1
LI Ypronost Ls Rango
49,641,650 50,440,407 51,239,164 1,597,515
50,055,396 50,854,153 51,652,911 1,597,515
50,469,142 51,267,900 52,066,657 1,597,515
50,882,889 51,681,646 52,480,404 1,597,515
51,296,635 52,095,393 52,894,150 1,597,515
51,710,381 52,509,139 53,307,896 1,597,515
52,124,128 52,922,885 53,721,643 1,597,515
52,537,874 53,336,632 54,135,389 1,597,515
52,951,621 53,750,378 54,549,136 1,597,515
53,365,367 54,164,124 54,962,882 1,597,515
53,779,113 54,577,871 55,376,628 1,597,515
54,192,860 54,991,617 55,790,375 1,597,515
Regresión Lineal
Año Mes X Ventas XY

Enero 1 46,234,572 46,234,572
Febrero 2 46,683,203 93,366,406
Marzo 3 46,403,232 139,209,696
Abril 4 47,772,899 191,091,596
Mayo 5 47,820,482 239,102,410
Junio 6 48,229,388 289,376,328
2021
Julio 7 48,630,992 340,416,944
Agosto 8 48,728,382 389,827,056
Setiembre 9 49,132,966 442,196,694
Octubre 10 49,078,354 490,783,540
Noviembre 11 49,186,466 541,051,126
Diciembre 12 50,174,838 602,098,056
Total 78 578,075,774 3,804,754,424
Media 7 48,172,981
b= 330,503
bO = 46,024,713
567,142,716
41
14,152,236
r= 0.9674
Sxy = 327,154
r2 = 0.935874
Holt
α= 0.9999
β= 0.373652
Año t Yt At Tt
1 46,234,572 46,234,572
2 46,683,203 46,683,158 167,615
3 46,403,232 46,403,277 407
4 47,772,899 47,772,762 511,966
5 47,820,482 47,820,528 338,517
6 48,229,388 48,229,381 364,798
2021
7 48,630,992 48,630,988 378,552
8 48,728,382 48,728,410 273,507
9 49,132,966 49,132,953 322,469
10 49,078,354 49,078,392 181,591
11 49,186,466 49,186,473 154,124
12 50,174,838 50,174,755 465,809
13 Pronóstico p=1
14 Pronóstico p=2
15 Pronóstico p=3
16 Pronóstico p=4
17 Pronóstico p=5
18 Pronóstico p=6
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7
20 Pronóstico p=8
21 Pronóstico p=9
22 Pronóstico p=10
23 Pronóstico p=11
24 Pronóstico p=12
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
X^2 Y^2 Y=b0+bX

1 2,137,635,648,023,184 46,355,216
4 2,179,321,442,339,209 46,685,719
9 2,153,259,940,045,824 47,016,222
16 2,282,249,878,864,201 47,346,724
25 2,286,798,498,712,324 47,677,227
36 2,326,073,866,854,544 48,007,730
49 2,364,973,382,904,064 48,338,233
64 2,374,455,212,337,924 48,668,735
81 2,414,048,347,957,156 48,999,238
100 2,408,684,831,349,316 49,329,741
121 2,419,308,437,569,156 49,660,244
144 2,517,514,368,326,244 49,990,746
650 27,864,323,855,283,100
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
Sf1= 384,150
Sf2= 397,554
Sf3= 412,341
Sf4= 428,366
Sf5= 445,496
Sf6= 463,608
Sf7= 482,592
Sf8= 502,350
Sf9= 522,793
Sf10= 543,844
Sf11= 565,435
Sf12= 587,507
X1 13
X2 14
X3 15
X4 16
X5 17
X6 18
X7 19
X8 20
X9 21
X10 22
X11 23
X12 24
Yt+p Error |et|
46,234,572 448,631 448,631

46,850,773 -447,541 447,541
46,403,684 1,369,215 1,369,215
48,284,728 -464,246 464,246
48,159,045 70,343 70,343
48,594,179 36,813 36,813
49,009,540 -281,158 281,158
49,001,917 131,049 131,049
49,455,422 -377,068 377,068
49,259,982 -73,516 73,516
49,340,597 834,241 834,241
50,640,563
51,106,372
51,572,180
52,037,989
52,503,797
52,969,606
53,435,414
53,901,223
54,367,032
54,832,840
55,298,649
55,764,457
1,246,762
113,342
ECM 312,536,984,864
RECM 559,050
DAM 412,166
EPAM 0.86%
EPM 0.232%
ICOS
^ ^
(X-Xp)^2 Error |e|=|Y-Y| (Y-Y)^2
30.25 -120,644 120,644 14,554,987,110
20.25 -2,516 2,516 6,329,247
12.25 -612,990 612,990 375,756,185,694
6.25 426,175 426,175 181,624,878,298
2.25 143,255 143,255 20,521,982,336
0.25 221,658 221,658 49,132,360,934
0.25 292,759 292,759 85,708,100,955
2.25 59,647 59,647 3,557,730,128
6.25 133,728 133,728 17,883,168,009
12.25 -251,387 251,387 63,195,315,948
20.25 -473,778 473,778 224,465,151,533
30.25 184,092 184,092 33,889,760,617
143
0.000
0.000
ECM 89,191,329,234
RECM 298,649
DAM 243,552
EPAM 0.506%
EPM -0.0040%
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
^(Yt - Yt)2 |et|/Yt et/Yt
201,269,774,161 0.96% 0.961%

200,293,205,756 0.96% -0.964%
1,874,750,028,267 2.87% 2.866%
215,524,491,022 0.97% -0.971%
4,948,096,059 0.15% 0.146%
1,355,203,768 0.08% 0.076%
79,049,919,023 0.58% -0.577%
17,173,805,158 0.27% 0.267%
142,180,051,165 0.77% -0.768%
5,404,670,359 0.15% -0.149%
695,957,588,764 1.66% 1.663%
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
|e|/Y e/Y n Prónostico
0.261% -0.2609% 1
0.005% -0.0054% 2
1.321% -1.3210% 3
0.892% 0.8921% 4
0.300% 0.2996% 5
0.460% 0.4596% 6
0.602% 0.6020% 7
0.122% 0.1224% 8
0.272% 0.2722% 9
0.512% -0.5122% 10
0.963% -0.9632% 11
0.367% 0.3669% 12
13 50,321,249
14 50,651,752
15 50,982,255
16 51,312,757
17 51,643,260
18 51,973,763
19 52,304,266
20 52,634,768
21 52,965,271
22 53,295,774
23 53,626,277
24 53,956,779
N.C 95%
Alfa 5%
Alfa/2 3%
n 11
gl 10
tcrittico 2.23
49,465,310 50,321,249 51,177,188 1,711,878
49,765,945 50,651,752 51,537,558 1,771,613
50,063,502 50,982,255 51,901,007 1,837,505
50,358,299 51,312,757 52,267,215 1,908,916
50,650,634 51,643,260 52,635,886 1,985,252
50,940,780 51,973,763 53,006,746 2,065,966
51,228,983 52,304,266 53,379,548 2,150,566
51,515,463 52,634,768 53,754,073 2,238,610
51,800,416 52,965,271 54,130,126 2,329,709
52,084,015 53,295,774 54,507,533 2,423,518
52,366,409 53,626,277 54,886,144 2,519,735
52,647,733 53,956,779 55,265,826 2,618,093
p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
49,722,201 50,640,563 51,558,925 1,836,724
50,188,010 51,106,372 52,024,734 1,836,724
50,653,818 51,572,180 52,490,542 1,836,724
51,119,627 52,037,989 52,956,351 1,836,724
51,585,435 52,503,797 53,422,159 1,836,724
52,051,244 52,969,606 53,887,968 1,836,724
52,517,052 53,435,414 54,353,777 1,836,724
52,982,861 53,901,223 54,819,585 1,836,724
53,448,669 54,367,032 55,285,394 1,836,724
53,914,478 54,832,840 55,751,202 1,836,724
54,380,287 55,298,649 56,217,011 1,836,724
54,846,095 55,764,457 56,682,819 1,836,724
ECM 320,341,829,629
RECM 565,987
DAM 431,497
EPAM 0.885%
EPM 0.228%
Atenuación Doble
ECM 261,552,876,177
RECM 511,422
DAM 358,486
EPAM 0.743%
EPM 0.235%
Regresión Lineal
ECM 89,191,329,234
RECM 298,649
DAM 243,552
EPAM 0.506%
EPM -0.004%
Holt
ECM 312,536,984,864
RECM 559,050
DAM 412,166
EPAM 0.855%
EPM 0.232%
13 Pronóstico p=1 50,503,015
14 Pronóstico p=2 51,051,257
15 Pronóstico p=3 51,599,499
16 Pronóstico p=4 52,147,741
17 Pronóstico p=5 52,695,983
18 Pronóstico p=6 53,244,225
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 53,792,467
20 Pronóstico p=8 54,340,709
21 Pronóstico p=9 54,888,951
22 Pronóstico p=10 55,437,193
23 Pronóstico p=11 55,985,435
24 Pronóstico p=12 56,533,677
13 Pronóstico p=1 50,440,407

14 Pronóstico p=2 50,854,153
15 Pronóstico p=3 51,267,900
16 Pronóstico p=4 51,681,646
17 Pronóstico p=5 52,095,393
18 Pronóstico p=6 52,509,139
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 52,922,885
20 Pronóstico p=8 53,336,632
21 Pronóstico p=9 53,750,378
22 Pronóstico p=10 54,164,124
23 Pronóstico p=11 54,577,871
24 Pronóstico p=12 54,991,617
13 Pronóstico p=1 50,321,249

14 Pronóstico p=2 50,651,752
15 Pronóstico p=3 50,982,255
16 Pronóstico p=4 51,312,757
17 Pronóstico p=5 51,643,260
18 Pronóstico p=6 51,973,763
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 52,304,266
20 Pronóstico p=8 52,634,768
21 Pronóstico p=9 52,965,271
22 Pronóstico p=10 53,295,774
23 Pronóstico p=11 53,626,277
24 Pronóstico p=12 53,956,779
13 Pronóstico p=1 50,640,563

14 Pronóstico p=2 51,106,372
15 Pronóstico p=3 51,572,180
16 Pronóstico p=4 52,037,989
17 Pronóstico p=5 52,503,797
18 Pronóstico p=6 52,969,606
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 53,435,414
20 Pronóstico p=8 53,901,223
21 Pronóstico p=9 54,367,032
22 Pronóstico p=10 54,832,840
23 Pronóstico p=11 55,298,649
24 Pronóstico p=12 55,764,457
Desfase 1 Desfase 2
Enero 10,056,784
Febrero 10,645,728 10,056,784 0
Marzo 11,345,728 10,645,728 10,056,784
Abril 11,432,030 11,345,728 10,645,728
Mayo 11,932,322 11,432,030 11,345,728
Junio 12,528,992 11,932,322 11,432,030
2021
Julio 12,704,823 12,528,992 11,932,322
Agosto 12,917,453 12,704,823 12,528,992
Setiembre 13,106,929 12,917,453 12,704,823
Octubre 13,383,821 13,106,929 12,917,453
Noviembre 13,329,667 13,383,821 13,106,929
Diciembre 13,983,547 13,329,667 13,383,821
t periodo Yt-1
1 Enero 10,056,784 -2,223,868
2 Febrero 10,645,728 10,056,784 -1,634,924
3 Marzo 11,345,728 10,645,728 -934,924
4 Abril 11,432,030 11,345,728 -848,622
5 Mayo 11,932,322 11,432,030 -348,330
6 Junio 12,528,992 11,932,322 248,340
7 Julio 12,704,823 12,528,992 424,171
8 Agosto 12,917,453 12,704,823 636,801
9 Setiembre 13,106,929 12,917,453 826,277
10 Octubre 13,383,821 13,106,929 1,103,169
11 Noviembre 13,329,667 13,383,821 1,049,015
12 Diciembre 13,983,547 13,329,667 1,702,895
Total 147,367,824 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 12,280,652
rk 0.68783
t periodo Yt-2
1 Enero 10,056,784 -2,223,868
2 Febrero 10,645,728 -1,634,924
3 Marzo 11,345,728 10,056,784 -934,924
4 Abril 11,432,030 10,645,728 -848,622
5 Mayo 11,932,322 11,345,728 -348,330
6 Junio 12,528,992 11,432,030 248,340
7 Julio 12,704,823 11,932,322 424,171
8 Agosto 12,917,453 12,528,992 636,801
9 Setiembre 13,106,929 12,704,823 826,277
10 Octubre 13,383,821 12,917,453 1,103,169
11 Noviembre 13,329,667 13,106,929 1,049,015
12 Diciembre 13,983,547 13,383,821 1,702,895
Total 147,367,824 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 12,280,652
rk 0.46534
t periodo Yt-3
1 Enero 10,056,784 -2,223,868
2 Febrero 10,645,728 -1,634,924
3 Marzo 11,345,728 -934,924
4 Abril 11,432,030 10,056,784 -848,622
5 Mayo 11,932,322 10,645,728 -348,330
6 Junio 12,528,992 11,345,728 248,340
7 Julio 12,704,823 11,432,030 424,171
8 Agosto 12,917,453 11,932,322 636,801
9 Setiembre 13,106,929 12,528,992 826,277
10 Octubre 13,383,821 12,704,823 1,103,169
11 Noviembre 13,329,667 12,917,453 1,049,015
12 Diciembre 13,983,547 13,106,929 1,702,895
Total 147,367,824 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 12,280,652
rk 0.27649
Periodo Desfase 4
t periodo Yt-4
1 Enero 10,056,784 -2,223,868
2 Febrero 10,645,728 -1,634,924
3 Marzo 11,345,728 -934,924
4 Abril 11,432,030 -848,622
5 Mayo 11,932,322 10,056,784 -348,330
6 Junio 12,528,992 10,645,728 248,340
7 Julio 12,704,823 11,345,728 424,171
8 Agosto 12,917,453 11,432,030 636,801
9 Setiembre 13,106,929 11,932,322 826,277
10 Octubre 13,383,821 12,528,992 1,103,169
11 Noviembre 13,329,667 12,704,823 1,049,015
12 Diciembre 13,983,547 12,917,453 1,702,895
Total 147,367,824 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 12,280,652
rk 0.05964
Desfase 3 VENTAS
periodo Yt-3
14,500,000
13,500,000
12,500,000
11,500,000
10,056,784 10,500,000
10,645,728 10,056,784 9,500,000
8,500,000
11,345,728 10,645,728 7,500,000
11,432,030 11,345,728 6,500,000
11,932,322 11,432,030 5,500,000
12,528,992 11,932,322 1 2 3 4 5
12,704,823 12,528,992
12,917,453 12,704,823
13,106,929 12,917,453
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
4,945,588,881,424 13,600,000
R² = 0.9
-2,223,868 2,672,976,485,776 3,635,855,166,032
13,100,000
-1,634,924 874,082,885,776 1,528,529,685,776
-934,924 720,159,298,884 793,397,074,728 12,600,000
-848,622 121,333,788,900 295,600,501,260
-348,330 61,672,755,600 -86,504,272,200 12,100,000
248,340 179,921,037,241 105,338,626,140
424,171 405,515,513,601 270,112,516,971 11,600,000
636,801 682,733,680,729 526,174,019,877
826,277 1,216,981,842,561 911,523,171,813 11,100,000
1,103,169 1,100,432,470,225 1,157,240,828,535
10,600,000
1,049,015 2,899,851,381,025 1,786,362,398,425
15,881,250,021,742 10,923,629,717,357 10,100,000
9,600,000
10,000,000 11,000,0
13,600,000
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
4,945,588,881,424 13,600,000
2,672,976,485,776
-2,223,868 874,082,885,776 2,079,147,566,032 13,100,000
-1,634,924 720,159,298,884 1,387,432,474,728 12,600,000
-934,924 121,333,788,900 325,662,076,920
-848,622 61,672,755,600 -210,746,787,480 12,100,000
-348,330 179,921,037,241 -147,751,484,430 11,600,000
248,340 405,515,513,601 158,143,160,340
424,171 682,733,680,729 350,482,741,367 11,100,000
636,801 1,216,981,842,561 702,499,122,369
10,600,000
826,277 1,100,432,470,225 866,776,967,155
1,103,169 2,899,851,381,025 1,878,580,974,255 10,100,000
15,881,250,021,742 7,390,226,811,256
9,600,000
10,000,000 11,000,
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
4,945,588,881,424 13,600,000
2,672,976,485,776
874,082,885,776 13,100,000
-2,223,868 720,159,298,884 1,887,223,309,896
12,600,000
-1,634,924 121,333,788,900 569,493,076,920
-934,924 61,672,755,600 -232,179,026,160 12,100,000
-848,622 179,921,037,241 -359,960,842,362
-348,330 405,515,513,601 -221,816,892,330 11,600,000
248,340 682,733,680,729 205,197,630,180 11,100,000
424,171 1,216,981,842,561 467,932,297,899
636,801 1,100,432,470,225 668,013,801,015 10,600,000
826,277 2,899,851,381,025 1,407,062,971,915
10,100,000
15,881,250,021,742 4,390,966,326,973
9,600,000
10,000,000 11,000
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

14,100,000
4,945,588,881,424
13,600,000
13,100,000
12,600,000
14,100,000
2,672,976,485,776 13,600,000
874,082,885,776 13,100,000
720,159,298,884 12,600,000
-2,223,868 121,333,788,900 774,639,940,440
-1,634,924 61,672,755,600 -406,017,026,160 12,100,000
-934,924 179,921,037,241 -396,567,648,004 11,600,000
-848,622 405,515,513,601 -540,403,338,222 11,100,000
-348,330 682,733,680,729 -287,817,067,410
248,340 1,216,981,842,561 273,960,989,460 10,600,000
424,171 1,100,432,470,225 444,961,741,565 10,100,000
636,801 2,899,851,381,025 1,084,405,238,895 9,600,000
15,881,250,021,742 947,162,830,564 10,000,000 11,00
VENTAS CUSQUEÑA 2021
0.98
0.975
0.97
0.965
0.96
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
0.955
1
Desfase rk R2 R El patrón es tendecia

1 0.68783 0.9521 0.97575612
2 0.46534 0.9481 0.97370427
3 0.27649 0.953 0.97621719
4 0.05964 0.9271 0.96286032
K=1
00
R² = 0.952056365144457
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000
K=2
000
R² = 0.948115802412465
K=2
000
R² = 0.948115802412465
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
0,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000
K=3
000
R² = 0.952962459908324
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
0,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000
K=4
,000
,000
,000 R² = 0.927081763525636
,000
K=4
,000
,000
,000 R² = 0.927081763525636
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
,000
10,000,000 11,000,000 12,000,000 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000
R
0.98
0.975
0.97
0.965
0.96
0.955
1 2 3 4
rón es tendecia
5,000,000
5,000,000
15,000,000
15,000,000
SEL
K= 2
Año T Ventas Mt M't
1 10,056,784
2 10,645,728 10,351,256
3 11,345,728 10,995,728 10,673,492
4 11,432,030 11,388,879 11,192,304
5 11,932,322 11,682,176 11,535,528
6 12,528,992 12,230,657 11,956,417
2021
7 12,704,823 12,616,908 12,423,782
8 12,917,453 12,811,138 12,714,023
9 13,106,929 13,012,191 12,911,665
10 13,383,821 13,245,375 13,128,783
11 13,329,667 13,356,744 13,301,060
12 13,983,547 13,656,607 13,506,676
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 103,892,413,964
RECM 322,323
DAM 267,853
EPAM 2.113%
EPM -0.537%
Pronostico
Valor a Valor b et abs(e)
Yt+p
11,317,964 644,472
11,585,455 393,151 11,962,436 -530,406 530,406
11,828,825 293,297 11,978,606 -46,284 46,284
12,504,898 548,481 12,122,122 406,871 406,871
12,810,033 386,251 13,053,379 -348,556 348,556
12,908,253 194,231 13,196,283 -278,830 278,830
13,112,718 201,053 13,102,484 4,445 4,445
13,361,967 233,184 13,313,771 70,051 70,051
13,412,429 111,369 13,595,151 -265,484 265,484
13,806,539 299,863 13,523,798 459,750 459,750
ronóstico p= 10 16,805,169
ronóstico p= 11 17,105,032
ronóstico p= 12 17,404,895
-528,444
6,892
et2 |et|/Yt et/Yt p
1
2
3
281,330,524,836 4.64% -4.640% 4
2,142,162,372 0.39% -0.388% 5
165,543,603,770 3.25% 3.247% 6
121,490,936,580 2.74% -2.743% 7
77,746,308,315 2.16% -2.159% 8
19,760,248 0.03% 0.034% 9
4,907,072,550 0.52% 0.523% 10
70,481,754,256 1.99% -1.992% 11
211,369,602,750 3.29% 3.288% 12
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
13,509,588 14,106,402 14,703,215 1,193,626
13,809,451 14,406,265 15,003,078 1,193,626
14,109,314 14,706,128 15,302,941 1,193,626
14,409,177 15,005,991 15,602,804 1,193,626
14,709,040 15,305,854 15,902,667 1,193,626
15,008,903 15,605,717 16,202,530 1,193,626
15,308,766 15,905,580 16,502,393 1,193,626
15,608,629 16,205,443 16,802,256 1,193,626
15,908,492 16,505,306 17,102,119 1,193,626
16,208,355 16,805,169 17,401,982 1,193,626
16,508,218 17,105,032 17,701,845 1,193,626
16,808,081 17,404,895 18,001,708 1,193,626
S
Atenuación Doble ^

1 10,056,784 10,056,784 10,056,784
2 10,645,728 10,645,669 10,645,610
3 11,345,728 11,345,658 11,345,588
4 11,432,030 11,432,021 11,432,013
5 11,932,322 11,932,272 11,932,222
6 12,528,992 12,528,932 12,528,873
2021
7 12,704,823 12,704,805 12,704,788
8 12,917,453 12,917,432 12,917,410
9 13,106,929 13,106,910 13,106,891
10 13,383,821 13,383,793 13,383,766
11 13,329,667 13,329,672 13,329,678
12 13,983,547 13,983,482 13,983,416
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 155,801,399,342
RECM 394,717
DAM 311,928
EPAM 2.554%
EPM 0.492%
α 0.9999
10,056,784
10,645,728 588,826.22 10,056,784 588,944 588,944
11,345,728 699,977.77 11,234,554 111,174 111,174
11,432,030 86,424.73 12,045,706 -613,676 613,676
11,932,322 500,209.22 11,518,455 413,867 413,867
12,528,992 596,650.71 12,432,531 96,461 96,461
12,704,823 175,915.16 13,125,643 -420,820 420,820
12,917,453 212,622.65 12,880,738 36,715 36,715
13,106,929 189,480.63 13,130,076 -23,147 23,147
13,383,821 276,874.52 13,296,410 87,411 87,411
13,329,667 -54,087.80 13,660,696 -331,029 331,029
13,983,547 653,738.41 13,275,579 707,968 707,968
ico p= 1 14,637,285
ico p= 2 15,291,024
ico p= 3 15,944,762
ico p= 4 16,598,501
ico p= 5 17,252,239
ico p= 6 17,905,977
ico p= 7 18,559,716
ico p= 8 19,213,454
ico p= 9 19,867,193
co p= 10 20,520,931
co p= 11 21,174,670
co p= 12 21,828,408
653,869
59,443
^
p
1
346,855,035,136 5.532% 5.532% 2
12,359,611,319 0.980% 0.980% 3
376,597,952,090 5.368% -5.368% 4
171,286,111,991 3.468% 3.468% 5
9,304,681,998 0.770% 0.770% 6
177,089,229,993 3.312% -3.312% 7
1,347,979,115 0.284% 0.284% 8
535,767,537 0.177% -0.177% 9
7,640,747,658 0.653% 0.653% 10
109,579,879,394 2.483% -2.483% 11
501,218,396,532 5.063% 5.063% 12
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
0<α<1
13,942,266 14,637,285 15,332,305 1,390,039
14,596,004 15,291,024 15,986,043 1,390,039
15,249,743 15,944,762 16,639,782 1,390,039
15,903,481 16,598,501 17,293,520 1,390,039
16,557,220 17,252,239 17,947,258 1,390,039
17,210,958 17,905,977 18,600,997 1,390,039
17,864,696 18,559,716 19,254,735 1,390,039
18,518,435 19,213,454 19,908,474 1,390,039
19,172,173 19,867,193 20,562,212 1,390,039
19,825,912 20,520,931 21,215,950 1,390,039
20,479,650 21,174,670 21,869,689 1,390,039
21,133,389 21,828,408 22,523,427 1,390,039
Regresión Lineal
Año Mes X Ventas XY

Enero 1 10,056,784 10,056,784
Febrero 2 10,645,728 21,291,456
Marzo 3 11,345,728 34,037,184
Abril 4 11,432,030 45,728,120
Mayo 5 11,932,322 59,661,610
Junio 6 12,528,992 75,173,952
2021
Julio 7 12,704,823 88,933,761
Agosto 8 12,917,453 103,339,624
Setiembre 9 13,106,929 117,962,361
Octubre 10 13,383,821 133,838,210
Noviembre 11 13,329,667 146,626,337
Diciembre 12 13,983,547 167,802,564
Total 78 147,367,824 1,004,451,963
Media 7 12,280,652
b= 325,602
bO = 10,164,238
558,733,284
41
13,804,890
r= 0.9770
Sxy = 268,487
r2 = 0.954610
Holt
α= 0.9990
β= 0.289225
Año t Yt At Tt
1 10,056,784 10,056,784
2 10,645,728 10,645,139 170,167
3 11,345,728 11,345,198 323,424
4 11,432,030 11,432,267 255,065
5 11,932,322 11,932,077 325,851
6 12,528,992 12,528,721 404,171
2021
7 12,704,823 12,705,051 338,274
8 12,917,453 12,917,579 301,905
9 13,106,929 13,107,042 269,384
10 13,383,821 13,383,814 271,521
11 13,329,667 13,329,993 177,424
12 13,983,547 13,983,071 314,995
13 Pronóstico p=1
14 Pronóstico p=2
15 Pronóstico p=3
16 Pronóstico p=4
17 Pronóstico p=5
18 Pronóstico p=6
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7
20 Pronóstico p=8
21 Pronóstico p=9
22 Pronóstico p=10
23 Pronóstico p=11
24 Pronóstico p=12
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
X^2 Y^2 Y=b0+bX

1 101,138,904,422,656 10,489,840
4 113,331,524,649,984 10,815,442
9 128,725,543,849,984 11,141,044
16 130,691,309,920,900 11,466,647
25 142,380,308,311,684 11,792,249
36 156,975,640,536,064 12,117,851
49 161,412,527,461,329 12,443,453
64 166,860,592,007,209 12,769,055
81 171,791,587,811,041 13,094,657
100 179,126,664,560,041 13,420,260
121 177,680,022,330,889 13,745,862
144 195,539,586,701,209 14,071,464
650 1,825,654,212,562,990
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
Sf1= 315,262
Sf2= 326,263
Sf3= 338,398
Sf4= 351,549
Sf5= 365,607
Sf6= 380,472
Sf7= 396,052
Sf8= 412,266
Sf9= 429,043
Sf10= 446,319
Sf11= 464,039
Sf12= 482,153
X1 13
X2 14
X3 15
X4 16
X5 17
X6 18
X7 19
X8 20
X9 21
X10 22
X11 23
X12 24
Yt+p Error |et|
10,056,784 588,944 588,944

10,815,306 530,422 530,422
11,668,622 -236,592 236,592
11,687,331 244,991 244,991
12,257,928 271,064 271,064
12,932,892 -228,069 228,069
13,043,325 -125,872 125,872
13,219,484 -112,555 112,555
13,376,425 7,396 7,396
13,655,334 -325,667 325,667
13,507,417 476,130 476,130
14,298,066
14,613,061
14,928,055
15,243,050
15,558,045
15,873,040
16,188,035
16,503,030
16,818,025
17,133,019
17,448,014
17,763,009
1,090,191
99,108
ECM 111,910,591,951
RECM 334,530
DAM 286,155
EPAM 2.37%
EPM 0.886%
TICOS
^ ^
(X-Xp)^2 Error |e|=|Y-Y| (Y-Y)^2
30.25 -433,056 433,056 187,537,665,696
20.25 -169,714 169,714 28,802,956,917
12.25 204,684 204,684 41,895,340,898
6.25 -34,617 34,617 1,198,311,271
2.25 140,073 140,073 19,620,507,040
0.25 411,141 411,141 169,036,982,258
0.25 261,370 261,370 68,314,238,517
2.25 148,398 148,398 22,021,901,026
6.25 12,272 12,272 150,592,973
12.25 -36,439 36,439 1,327,765,302
20.25 -416,195 416,195 173,217,995,711
30.25 -87,917 87,917 7,729,365,075
143
0.000
0.000
ECM 60,071,135,224
RECM 245,094
DAM 196,323
EPAM 1.649%
EPM -0.0556%
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
^(Yt - Yt)2 |et|/Yt et/Yt
346,855,035,136 5.53% 5.532%

281,347,701,947 4.68% 4.675%
55,975,803,489 2.07% -2.070%
60,020,462,147 2.05% 2.053%
73,475,601,132 2.16% 2.163%
52,015,479,261 1.80% -1.795%
15,843,747,445 0.97% -0.974%
12,668,604,082 0.86% -0.859%
54,693,614 0.06% 0.055%
106,059,230,533 2.44% -2.443%
226,700,152,677 3.40% 3.405%
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
|e|/Y e/Y n Prónostico
4.306% -4.3061% 1
1.594% -1.5942% 2
1.804% 1.8041% 3
0.303% -0.3028% 4
1.174% 1.1739% 5
3.282% 3.2815% 6
2.057% 2.0572% 7
1.149% 1.1488% 8
0.094% 0.0936% 9
0.272% -0.2723% 10
3.122% -3.1223% 11
0.629% -0.6287% 12
13 14,397,066
14 14,722,668
15 15,048,270
16 15,373,872
17 15,699,475
18 16,025,077
19 16,350,679
20 16,676,281
21 17,001,883
22 17,327,485
23 17,653,087
24 17,978,690
N.C 95%
Alfa 5%
Alfa/2 3%
n 11
gl 10
tcrittico 2.23
13,694,617 14,397,066 15,099,515 1,404,897
13,995,708 14,722,668 15,449,628 1,453,920
14,294,272 15,048,270 15,802,268 1,507,996
14,590,572 15,373,872 16,157,173 1,566,601
14,884,850 15,699,475 16,514,099 1,629,248
15,177,333 16,025,077 16,872,821 1,695,488
15,468,220 16,350,679 17,233,137 1,764,917
15,757,694 16,676,281 17,594,868 1,837,173
16,045,915 17,001,883 17,957,851 1,911,936
16,333,024 17,327,485 18,321,947 1,988,923
16,619,145 17,653,087 18,687,030 2,067,885
16,904,387 17,978,690 19,052,992 2,148,606
p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13,660,473 14,298,066 14,935,658 1,275,185
13,975,468 14,613,061 15,250,653 1,275,185
14,290,463 14,928,055 15,565,648 1,275,185
14,605,458 15,243,050 15,880,643 1,275,185
14,920,453 15,558,045 16,195,638 1,275,185
15,235,448 15,873,040 16,510,632 1,275,185
15,550,442 16,188,035 16,825,627 1,275,185
15,865,437 16,503,030 17,140,622 1,275,185
16,180,432 16,818,025 17,455,617 1,275,185
16,495,427 17,133,019 17,770,612 1,275,185
16,810,422 17,448,014 18,085,607 1,275,185
17,125,417 17,763,009 18,400,602 1,275,185
ECM 103,892,413,964
RECM 322,323
DAM 267,853
EPAM 2.113%
EPM -0.537%
Atenuación Doble
ECM 155,801,399,342
RECM 394,717
DAM 311,928
EPAM 2.554%
EPM 0.492%
Regresión Lineal
ECM 60,071,135,224
RECM 245,094
DAM 196,323
EPAM 1.649%
EPM -0.056%
Holt
ECM 111,910,591,951
RECM 334,530
DAM 286,155
EPAM 2.366%
EPM 0.886%
13 Pronóstico p=1 14,106,402
14 Pronóstico p=2 14,406,265
15 Pronóstico p=3 14,706,128
16 Pronóstico p=4 15,005,991
17 Pronóstico p=5 15,305,854
18 Pronóstico p=6 15,605,717
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 15,905,580
20 Pronóstico p=8 16,205,443
21 Pronóstico p=9 16,505,306
22 Pronóstico p=10 16,805,169
23 Pronóstico p=11 17,105,032
24 Pronóstico p=12 17,404,895
13 Pronóstico p=1 14,637,285

14 Pronóstico p=2 15,291,024
15 Pronóstico p=3 15,944,762
16 Pronóstico p=4 16,598,501
17 Pronóstico p=5 17,252,239
18 Pronóstico p=6 17,905,977
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 18,559,716
20 Pronóstico p=8 19,213,454
21 Pronóstico p=9 19,867,193
22 Pronóstico p=10 20,520,931
23 Pronóstico p=11 21,174,670
24 Pronóstico p=12 21,828,408
13 Pronóstico p=1 14,397,066

14 Pronóstico p=2 14,722,668
15 Pronóstico p=3 15,048,270
16 Pronóstico p=4 15,373,872
17 Pronóstico p=5 15,699,475
18 Pronóstico p=6 16,025,077
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 16,350,679
20 Pronóstico p=8 16,676,281
21 Pronóstico p=9 17,001,883
22 Pronóstico p=10 17,327,485
23 Pronóstico p=11 17,653,087
24 Pronóstico p=12 17,978,690
13 Pronóstico p=1 14,298,066

14 Pronóstico p=2 14,613,061
15 Pronóstico p=3 14,928,055
16 Pronóstico p=4 15,243,050
17 Pronóstico p=5 15,558,045
18 Pronóstico p=6 15,873,040
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7 16,188,035
20 Pronóstico p=8 16,503,030
21 Pronóstico p=9 16,818,025
22 Pronóstico p=10 17,133,019
23 Pronóstico p=11 17,448,014
24 Pronóstico p=12 17,763,009
Desfase 1 Desfase 2
Enero 21,974,736
Febrero 22,854,257 21,974,736 0
Marzo 23,537,746 22,854,257 21,974,736
Abril 23,646,277 23,537,746 22,854,257
Mayo 24,784,993 23,646,277 23,537,746
Junio 24,817,453 24,784,993 23,646,277
2021
Julio 25,429,939 24,817,453 24,784,993
Agosto 25,940,059 25,429,939 24,817,453
Setiembre 26,327,365 25,940,059 25,429,939
Octubre 27,283,749 26,327,365 25,940,059
Noviembre 28,118,762 27,283,749 26,327,365
Diciembre 30,138,748 28,118,762 27,283,749
t periodo Yt-1
1 Enero 21,974,736 -3,429,771
2 Febrero 22,854,257 21,974,736 -2,550,250
3 Marzo 23,537,746 22,854,257 -1,866,761
4 Abril 23,646,277 23,537,746 -1,758,230
5 Mayo 24,784,993 23,646,277 -619,514
6 Junio 24,817,453 24,784,993 -587,054
7 Julio 25,429,939 24,817,453 25,432
8 Agosto 25,940,059 25,429,939 535,552
9 Setiembre 26,327,365 25,940,059 922,858
10 Octubre 27,283,749 26,327,365 1,879,242
11 Noviembre 28,118,762 27,283,749 2,714,255
12 Diciembre 30,138,748 28,118,762 4,734,241
Total 304,854,084 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 25,404,507
rk 0.64010
t periodo Yt-2
1 Enero 21,974,736 -3,429,771
2 Febrero 22,854,257 -2,550,250
3 Marzo 23,537,746 21,974,736 -1,866,761
4 Abril 23,646,277 22,854,257 -1,758,230
5 Mayo 24,784,993 23,537,746 -619,514
6 Junio 24,817,453 23,646,277 -587,054
7 Julio 25,429,939 24,784,993 25,432
8 Agosto 25,940,059 24,817,453 535,552
9 Setiembre 26,327,365 25,429,939 922,858
10 Octubre 27,283,749 25,940,059 1,879,242
11 Noviembre 28,118,762 26,327,365 2,714,255
12 Diciembre 30,138,748 27,283,749 4,734,241
Total 304,854,084 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 25,404,507
rk 0.41945
t periodo Yt-3
1 Enero 21,974,736 -3,429,771
2 Febrero 22,854,257 -2,550,250
3 Marzo 23,537,746 -1,866,761
4 Abril 23,646,277 21,974,736 -1,758,230
5 Mayo 24,784,993 22,854,257 -619,514
6 Junio 24,817,453 23,537,746 -587,054
7 Julio 25,429,939 23,646,277 25,432
8 Agosto 25,940,059 24,784,993 535,552
9 Setiembre 26,327,365 24,817,453 922,858
10 Octubre 27,283,749 25,429,939 1,879,242
11 Noviembre 28,118,762 25,940,059 2,714,255
12 Diciembre 30,138,748 26,327,365 4,734,241
Total 304,854,084 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 25,404,507
rk 0.22755
Periodo Desfase 4
t periodo Yt-4
1 Enero 21,974,736 -3,429,771
2 Febrero 22,854,257 -2,550,250
3 Marzo 23,537,746 -1,866,761
4 Abril 23,646,277 -1,758,230
5 Mayo 24,784,993 21,974,736 -619,514
6 Junio 24,817,453 22,854,257 -587,054
7 Julio 25,429,939 23,537,746 25,432
8 Agosto 25,940,059 23,646,277 535,552
9 Setiembre 26,327,365 24,784,993 922,858
10 Octubre 27,283,749 24,817,453 1,879,242
11 Noviembre 28,118,762 25,429,939 2,714,255
12 Diciembre 30,138,748 25,940,059 4,734,241
Total 304,854,084 0
Media 𝑌 ̅ 25,404,507
rk 0.05935
Desfase 3 VENTA
periodo Yt-3
31,000,000
29,000,000
27,000,000
25,000,000
21,974,736 23,000,000
22,854,257 21,974,736 21,000,000
19,000,000
23,537,746 22,854,257 17,000,000
23,646,277 23,537,746 15,000,000
24,784,993 23,646,277 13,000,000
24,817,453 24,784,993 1 2 3 4 5
25,429,939 24,817,453
25,940,059 25,429,939
26,327,365 25,940,059
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

27,000,000
11,763,329,112,441
-3,429,771 6,503,775,062,500 8,746,773,492,750 26,000,000
-2,550,250 3,484,796,631,121 4,760,707,240,250
-1,866,761 3,091,372,732,900 3,282,195,193,030 25,000,000
-1,758,230 383,797,596,196 1,089,248,100,220
-619,514 344,632,398,916 363,688,171,756 24,000,000
-587,054 646,786,624 -14,929,957,328
25,432 286,815,944,704 13,620,158,464 23,000,000
535,552 851,666,888,164 494,238,447,616
22,000,000
922,858 3,531,550,494,564 1,734,273,513,636
1,879,242 7,367,180,205,025 5,100,741,994,710 21,000,000
2,714,255 22,413,037,846,081 12,849,937,305,455
60,022,601,699,236 38,420,493,660,559 20,000,000
21,000,000 22,5
29,000,000
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
11,763,329,112,441 29,000,000
6,503,775,062,500
28,000,000
-3,429,771 3,484,796,631,121 6,402,562,741,731
-2,550,250 3,091,372,732,900 4,483,926,057,500 27,000,000
-1,866,761 383,797,596,196 1,156,484,574,154 26,000,000
-1,758,230 344,632,398,916 1,032,175,954,420
25,000,000
-619,514 646,786,624 -15,755,480,048
-587,054 286,815,944,704 -314,397,943,808 24,000,000
25,432 851,666,888,164 23,470,124,656 23,000,000
535,552 3,531,550,494,564 1,006,431,811,584
22,000,000
922,858 7,367,180,205,025 2,504,871,940,790
1,879,242 22,413,037,846,081 8,896,784,525,322 21,000,000
60,022,601,699,236 25,176,554,306,301 20,000,000
21,000,000 22,500,00
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
11,763,329,112,441
29,000,000
6,503,775,062,500
3,484,796,631,121 28,000,000
-3,429,771 3,091,372,732,900 6,030,326,265,330 27,000,000
-2,550,250 383,797,596,196 1,579,915,578,500
26,000,000
-1,866,761 344,632,398,916 1,095,889,512,094
-1,758,230 646,786,624 -44,715,305,360 25,000,000
-619,514 286,815,944,704 -331,781,961,728
24,000,000
-587,054 851,666,888,164 -541,767,480,332
25,432 3,531,550,494,564 47,792,882,544 23,000,000
535,552 7,367,180,205,025 1,453,624,693,760 22,000,000
922,858 22,413,037,846,081 4,369,032,180,778
60,022,601,699,236 13,658,316,365,586 21,000,000
20,000,000
21,000,000 22,000,000 23,0
(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )
11,763,329,112,441 29,000,000
28,000,000
27,000,000
26,000,000
29,000,000
6,503,775,062,500 28,000,000
3,484,796,631,121 27,000,000
3,091,372,732,900
26,000,000
-3,429,771 383,797,596,196 2,124,791,151,294
-2,550,250 344,632,398,916 1,497,134,463,500 25,000,000
-1,866,761 646,786,624 -47,475,465,752 24,000,000
-1,758,230 286,815,944,704 -941,623,592,960
23,000,000
-619,514 851,666,888,164 -571,723,451,012
-587,054 3,531,550,494,564 -1,103,216,533,068 22,000,000
25,432 7,367,180,205,025 69,028,933,160 21,000,000
535,552 22,413,037,846,081 2,535,432,236,032
20,000,000
60,022,601,699,236 3,562,347,741,194 21,000,000 22,000,000
VENTAS CRISTAL 2021
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.9
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0.89
0.88
1
Desfase rk R2 R El patrón es tendecia

1 0.64010 0.9482 0.97375562
2 0.41945 0.9312 0.96498705
3 0.22755 0.8865 0.94154129
4 0.05935 0.8369 0.91482239
K=1
000
R² = 0.948232473635732
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
1,000,000 22,500,000 24,000,000 25,500,000 27,000,000
K=2
K=2
R² = 0.931233081031398
00 22,500,000 24,000,000 25,500,000 27,000,000
K=3
R² = 0.886452635303078
00 22,000,000 23,000,000 24,000,000 25,000,000 26,000,000 27,000,000 28,000,000
K=4
0
0
0
0
K=4
0
0
0
0
0 R² = 0.836936103688409
0
0
0
0
0
00,000 22,000,000 23,000,000 24,000,000 25,000,000 26,000,000 27,000,000 28,000,000
R
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.94
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.9
0.89
0.88
1 2 3 4
rón es tendecia
0
000,000
28,000,000
SEL
K= 2
Año T Ventas Mt M't
1 21,974,736
2 22,854,257 22,414,497
3 23,537,746 23,196,002 22,805,249
4 23,646,277 23,592,012 23,394,007
5 24,784,993 24,215,635 23,903,823
6 24,817,453 24,801,223 24,508,429
2021
7 25,429,939 25,123,696 24,962,460
8 25,940,059 25,684,999 25,404,348
9 26,327,365 26,133,712 25,909,356
10 27,283,749 26,805,557 26,469,635
11 28,118,762 27,701,256 27,253,406
12 30,138,748 29,128,755 28,415,005
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 302,405,728,490
RECM 549,914
DAM 479,203
EPAM 1.811%
EPM 0.447%
Pronostico
Valor a Valor b et abs(e)
Yt+p
23,586,754 781,505
23,790,017 396,010 24,368,259 -721,982 721,982
24,527,447 623,624 24,186,027 598,967 598,967
25,094,017 585,588 25,151,070 -333,617 333,617
25,284,933 322,473 25,679,605 -249,666 249,666
25,965,651 561,303 25,607,406 332,654 332,654
26,358,069 448,713 26,526,954 -199,589 199,589
27,141,480 671,845 26,806,782 476,968 476,968
28,149,105 895,699 27,813,325 305,438 305,438
29,842,505 1,427,500 29,044,803 1,093,945 1,093,945
ronóstico p= 10 44,117,500
ronóstico p= 11 45,544,999
ronóstico p= 12 46,972,499
1,303,116
203,733
et2 |et|/Yt et/Yt p
1
2
3
521,258,008,324 3.05% -3.053% 4
358,760,868,122 2.42% 2.417% 5
111,300,469,498 1.34% -1.344% 6
62,333,111,556 0.98% -0.982% 7
110,658,351,062 1.28% 1.282% 8
39,835,569,332 0.76% -0.758% 9
227,497,996,056 1.75% 1.748% 10
93,292,066,406 1.09% 1.086% 11
1,196,715,116,053 3.63% 3.630% 12
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
30,202,274 31,270,004 32,337,734 2,135,460
31,629,774 32,697,504 33,765,234 2,135,460
33,057,273 34,125,003 35,192,733 2,135,460
34,484,773 35,552,503 36,620,233 2,135,460
35,912,272 36,980,002 38,047,732 2,135,460
37,339,772 38,407,502 39,475,232 2,135,460
38,767,271 39,835,001 40,902,731 2,135,460
40,194,771 41,262,501 42,330,231 2,135,460
41,622,270 42,690,000 43,757,730 2,135,460
43,049,770 44,117,500 45,185,230 2,135,460
44,477,269 45,544,999 46,612,729 2,135,460
45,904,769 46,972,499 48,040,229 2,135,460
30,434,480 31,455,737 32,476,993 2,042,513
32,140,368 33,161,624 34,182,881 2,042,513
33,846,255 34,867,512 35,888,768 2,042,513
35,552,143 36,573,399 37,594,656 2,042,513
37,258,030 38,279,287 39,300,544 2,042,513
38,963,918 39,985,175 41,006,431 2,042,513
40,669,806 41,691,062 42,712,319 2,042,513
42,375,693 43,396,950 44,418,206 2,042,513
44,081,581 45,102,837 46,124,094 2,042,513
45,787,468 46,808,725 47,829,982 2,042,513
47,493,356 48,514,613 49,535,869 2,042,513
49,199,244 50,220,500 51,241,757 2,042,513
SE
Atenuación Doble ^

1 21,974,736 21,974,736 21,974,736
2 22,854,257 22,537,998 22,335,460
3 23,537,746 23,178,256 22,875,202
4 23,646,277 23,477,985 23,261,236
5 24,784,993 24,315,018 23,936,098
6 24,817,453 24,636,787 24,384,833
2021
7 25,429,939 25,144,737 24,871,490
8 25,940,059 25,654,076 25,372,673
9 26,327,365 26,085,263 25,829,029
10 27,283,749 26,852,796 26,484,669
11 28,118,762 27,663,545 27,239,644
12 30,138,748 29,248,712 28,526,289
13 Pronóstico p= 1
14 Pronóstico p= 2
15 Pronóstico p= 3
16 Pronóstico p= 4
17 Pronóstico p= 5
18 Pronóstico p= 6
2022
19 Pronóstico p= 7
20 Pronóstico p= 8
21 Pronóstico p= 9
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
ECM 354,674,384,159
RECM 595,545
DAM 473,450
EPAM 1.837%
EPM 1.070%
α 0.640419061666817
21,974,736
22,740,536 360,724 21,974,736 879,521 879,521
23,481,309 539,743 23,101,260 436,486 436,486
23,694,735 386,034 24,021,052 -374,775 374,775
24,693,938 674,862 24,080,769 704,224 704,224
24,888,741 448,734 25,368,800 -551,347 551,347
25,417,984 486,657 25,337,476 92,463 92,463
25,935,479 501,183 25,904,641 35,418 35,418
26,341,497 456,356 26,436,663 -109,298 109,298
27,220,923 655,640 26,797,853 485,896 485,896
28,087,446 754,974 27,876,563 242,199 242,199
29,971,135 1,286,646 28,842,421 1,296,327 1,296,327
óstico p= 1 31,257,781
óstico p= 2 32,544,426
óstico p= 3 33,831,072
óstico p= 4 35,117,718
óstico p= 5 36,404,364
óstico p= 6 37,691,009
óstico p= 7 38,977,655
óstico p= 8 40,264,301
óstico p= 9 41,550,947
stico p= 10 42,837,592
stico p= 11 44,124,238
stico p= 12 45,410,884
3,137,115
285,192
^
p
1
773,557,189,441 3.848% 3.848% 2
190,520,004,562 1.854% 1.854% 3
140,456,024,551 1.585% -1.585% 4
495,932,022,849 2.841% 2.841% 5
303,983,371,766 2.222% -2.222% 6
8,549,447,793 0.364% 0.364% 7
1,254,457,544 0.137% 0.137% 8
11,946,018,841 0.415% -0.415% 9
236,094,556,199 1.781% 1.781% 10
58,660,186,036 0.861% 0.861% 11
1,680,464,946,162 4.301% 4.301% 12
13
14
N.C 95% 15
Alfa 5% 16
Alfa/2 3% 17
n 11 18
gl 10 19
tcrittico 2.23 20
21
22
23
24
0<α<1
30,202,867 31,257,781 32,312,694 2,109,826
31,489,513 32,544,426 33,599,340 2,109,826
32,776,159 33,831,072 34,885,985 2,109,826
34,062,805 35,117,718 36,172,631 2,109,826
35,349,450 36,404,364 37,459,277 2,109,826
36,636,096 37,691,009 38,745,922 2,109,826
37,922,742 38,977,655 40,032,568 2,109,826
39,209,388 40,264,301 41,319,214 2,109,826
40,496,033 41,550,947 42,605,860 2,109,826
41,782,679 42,837,592 43,892,505 2,109,826
43,069,325 44,124,238 45,179,151 2,109,826
44,355,971 45,410,884 46,465,797 2,109,826
Regresión Lineal
Total 78 304,854,084 2,071,996,457

Media 7 25,404,507
b= 632,482
bO = 21,293,375
1,085,338,932
41
26,837,869
r= 0.9762
Sxy = 530,833
r2 = 0.953054
Holt
α= 0.6680
β= 0.999900
Año t Yt At Tt
1 21,974,736 21,974,736
2 22,854,257 22,562,250 587,455
3 23,537,746 23,408,914 846,638
4 23,646,277 23,848,560 439,688
5 24,784,993 24,620,070 771,477
6 24,817,453 25,008,056 388,024
2021
7 25,429,939 25,418,698 410,639
8 25,940,059 25,903,299 484,593
9 26,327,365 26,347,460 444,166
10 27,283,749 27,120,361 772,868
11 28,118,762 28,043,883 923,507
12 30,138,748 29,749,849 1,705,888
13 Pronóstico p=1
14 Pronóstico p=2
15 Pronóstico p=3
16 Pronóstico p=4
17 Pronóstico p=5
18 Pronóstico p=6
2022
19 Pronóstico p=7
20 Pronóstico p=8
21 Pronóstico p=9
22 Pronóstico p=10
23 Pronóstico p=11
24 Pronóstico p=12
Sesgo
Sesgo medio
650 7,804,690,312,655,824 143

Sesgo
Sesgo medio
Sf1= 623,313
Sf2= 645,063
Sf3= 669,055
Sf4= 695,057
Sf5= 722,851
Sf6= 752,240
Sf7= 783,044
Sf8= 815,102
Sf9= 848,272
Sf10= 882,429
Sf11= 917,462
Sf12= 953,276
X1 13
X2 14
X3 15
X4 16
X5 17
X6 18
X7 19
X8 20
X9 21
X10 22
X11 23
X12 24
Yt+p Error |et| ^(Yt - Yt)2
21,974,736 879,521 879,521 773,557,189,441

23,149,705 388,041 388,041 150,575,931,081
24,255,551 -609,274 609,274 371,215,370,358
24,288,248 496,745 496,745 246,755,620,642
25,391,547 -574,094 574,094 329,583,524,262
25,396,081 33,858 33,858 1,146,396,172
25,829,337 110,722 110,722 12,259,344,395
26,387,892 -60,527 60,527 3,663,509,457
26,791,626 492,123 492,123 242,184,805,985
27,893,228 225,534 225,534 50,865,458,462
28,967,391 1,171,357 1,171,357 1,372,078,181,347
31,455,737
33,161,624
34,867,512
36,573,399
38,279,287
39,985,175
41,691,062
43,396,950
45,102,837
46,808,725
48,514,613
50,220,500 N.C
2,554,006 Alfa
232,182 Alfa/2
n
gl
ECM 323,080,484,691 tcrittico
RECM 568,402
DAM 458,345.14
EPAM 1.79%
EPM 0.858%
^ ^
0.000
0.000
ECM 234,819,415,614
RECM 484,582
DAM 379,421 N.C
EPAM 1.438% Alfa
EPM -0.0239% Alfa/2
n
gl
tcrittico
LI
13 28,126,811
14 28,710,831
15 29,289,855
16 29,864,402
17 30,434,953
18 31,001,953
19 31,565,800
20 32,126,852
21 32,685,427
22 33,241,802
23 33,796,225
24 34,348,909
p
|et|/Yt et/Yt 1
2
3.85% 3.848% 3
1.65% 1.649% 4
2.58% -2.577% 5
2.00% 2.004% 6
2.31% -2.313% 7
0.13% 0.133% 8
0.43% 0.427% 9
0.23% -0.230% 10
1.80% 1.804% 11
0.80% 0.802% 12
3.89% 3.887%
LI
13 30,434,480
14 32,140,368
95% 15 33,846,255
5% 16 35,552,143
3% 17 37,258,030
11 18 38,963,918
10 19 40,669,806
2.23 20 42,375,693
21 44,081,581
22 45,787,468
23 47,493,356
24 49,199,244
13 29,515,639
14 30,148,121
15 30,780,603
16 31,413,085
17 32,045,567
18 32,678,049
19 33,310,531
20 33,943,013
21 34,575,494
22 35,207,976
23 35,840,458
24 36,472,940
95%
5%
3%
11
10
2.23
Ypronost Ls Rango
29,515,639 30,904,468 2,777,657
30,148,121 31,585,412 2,874,581
30,780,603 32,271,351 2,981,495
31,413,085 32,961,768 3,097,366
32,045,567 33,656,180 3,221,227
32,678,049 34,354,145 3,352,192
33,310,531 35,055,261 3,489,461
33,943,013 35,759,173 3,632,321
34,575,494 36,465,562 3,780,136
35,207,976 37,174,151 3,932,349
35,840,458 37,884,692 4,088,467
36,472,940 38,596,971 4,248,062
Ypronost Ls Rango
31,455,737 32,476,993 2,042,513
33,161,624 34,182,881 2,042,513
34,867,512 35,888,768 2,042,513
36,573,399 37,594,656 2,042,513
38,279,287 39,300,544 2,042,513
39,985,175 41,006,431 2,042,513
41,691,062 42,712,319 2,042,513
43,396,950 44,418,206 2,042,513
45,102,837 46,124,094 2,042,513
46,808,725 47,829,982 2,042,513
48,514,613 49,535,869 2,042,513
50,220,500 51,241,757 2,042,513
ECM 302,405,728,490
RECM 549,914
DAM 479,203
EPAM 1.811%
EPM 0.447%
2022
Atenuación Doble
ECM 354,674,384,159
RECM 595,545
DAM 473,450
EPAM 1.837%
EPM 1.070%
2022
Regresión Lineal
ECM 234,819,415,614
RECM 484,582
DAM 379,421
EPAM 1.438%
EPM -0.024%
2022
Holt
ECM 323,080,484,691
RECM 568,402
DAM 458,345
EPAM 1.788%
EPM 0.858%
2022
13 Pronóstico p=1 31,270,004
14 Pronóstico p=2 32,697,504
15 Pronóstico p=3 34,125,003
16 Pronóstico p=4 35,552,503
17 Pronóstico p=5 36,980,002
18 Pronóstico p=6 38,407,502
19 Pronóstico p=7 39,835,001
20 Pronóstico p=8 41,262,501
21 Pronóstico p=9 42,690,000
22 Pronóstico p=10 44,117,500
23 Pronóstico p=11 45,544,999
24 Pronóstico p=12 46,972,499
13 Pronóstico p=1 31,257,781

14 Pronóstico p=2 32,544,426
15 Pronóstico p=3 33,831,072
16 Pronóstico p=4 35,117,718
17 Pronóstico p=5 36,404,364
18 Pronóstico p=6 37,691,009
19 Pronóstico p=7 38,977,655
20 Pronóstico p=8 40,264,301
21 Pronóstico p=9 41,550,947
22 Pronóstico p=10 42,837,592
23 Pronóstico p=11 44,124,238
24 Pronóstico p=12 45,410,884
13 Pronóstico p=1 29,515,639

14 Pronóstico p=2 30,148,121
15 Pronóstico p=3 30,780,603
16 Pronóstico p=4 31,413,085
17 Pronóstico p=5 32,045,567
18 Pronóstico p=6 32,678,049
19 Pronóstico p=7 33,310,531
20 Pronóstico p=8 33,943,013
21 Pronóstico p=9 34,575,494
22 Pronóstico p=10 35,207,976
23 Pronóstico p=11 35,840,458
24 Pronóstico p=12 36,472,940
13 Pronóstico p=1 31,455,737

14 Pronóstico p=2 33,161,624
15 Pronóstico p=3 34,867,512
16 Pronóstico p=4 36,573,399
17 Pronóstico p=5 38,279,287
18 Pronóstico p=6 39,985,175
19 Pronóstico p=7 41,691,062
20 Pronóstico p=8 43,396,950
21 Pronóstico p=9 45,102,837
22 Pronóstico p=10 46,808,725
23 Pronóstico p=11 48,514,613
24 Pronóstico p=12 50,220,500
ANÁLISIS DE ERRORES
PILSEN CALLAO
Promedio Móvil Atenuación

Regresión Lineal
Doble exponencial doble
ECM 320,341,829,629 261,552,876,177 89,191,329,234

RECM 565,987 511,422 298,649
DAM 431,497 358,486 243,552
EPAM 0.885% 0.743% 0.506%
EPM 0.228% 0.235% -0.004%
CUSQUEÑA

Regresión Lineal
ECM 103,892,413,964 155,801,399,342 60,071,135,224

RECM 322,323 394,717 245,094
DAM 267,853 311,928 196,323
EPAM 2.113% 2.554% 1.649%
EPM -0.537% 0.492% -0.056%
CRISTAL

Regresión Lineal
ECM 302,405,728,490 354,674,384,159 234,819,415,614

RECM 549,914 595,545 484,582
DAM 479,203 473,450 379,421
EPAM 1.811% 1.837% 1.438%
EPM 0.447% 1.070% -0.024%
ANÁLISIS DE ERRORES
Holt
312,536,984,864
559,050
412,166
0.855%
0.232%
Holt
111,910,591,951
334,530
286,155
2.366%
0.886%
Holt
323,080,484,691
568,402
458,345
1.788%
0.858%
Comparación y elección del mejor método
PILSEN CALLAO
Método ECM
P. M. Doble 320,341,829,629
A. Doble 261,552,876,177
Regresión 89,191,329,234
Holt 312,536,984,864
CUSQUEÑA
Método ECM
P. M. Doble 103,892,413,964
A. Doble 155,801,399,342
Regresión 60,071,135,224
Holt 111,910,591,951
CRISTAL
Método ECM
P. M. Doble 302,405,728,490
A. Doble 354,674,384,159
Regresión 234,819,415,614
Holt 323,080,484,691
étodo
Año
Producto Modelo elegido Mes Linferior
Pronosticado
Enero 49,541,580
Febrero 50,089,822
Marzo 50,638,064
Abril 51,186,306
Mayo 51,734,548
Promedio Movil Junio 52,282,790
Doble Julio 52,831,032
Agosto 53,379,274
Setiembre 53,927,516
Octubre 54,475,758
Noviembre 55,024,000
Diciembre 55,572,242
Enero 49,641,650
Febrero 50,055,396
Marzo 50,469,142
Abril 50,882,889
Mayo 51,296,635
Atenuación Junio 51,710,381
exponencial
doble Julio 52,124,128
Agosto 52,537,874
Octubre 53,365,367
2022 Pilsen Callao
Enero 49,465,310
Febrero 49,765,945
Marzo 50,063,502
Abril 50,358,299
Mayo 50,650,634
Regresión Junio 50,940,780
Lineal Julio 51,228,983
Agosto 51,515,463
Octubre 52,084,015
Enero 49,722,201
Febrero 50,188,010
Marzo 50,653,818
Abril 51,119,627
Holt
Mayo 51,585,435
Junio 52,051,244
Holt
Julio 52,517,052
Agosto 52,982,861
Octubre 53,914,478
Año
Pronosticado
Enero 30,202,274
Febrero 31,629,774
Marzo 33,057,273
Abril 34,484,773
Mayo 35,912,272
Promedio Móvil Junio 37,339,772
Agosto 40,194,771
Octubre 43,049,770
Enero 30,202,867
Febrero 31,489,513
Marzo 32,776,159
Abril 34,062,805
Mayo 35,349,450
Exponencial
Agosto 39,209,388
Octubre 41,782,679
2022 Cristal
Enero 28,126,811
Febrero 28,710,831
Marzo 29,289,855
Abril 29,864,402
Mayo 30,434,953
Regresión
Lineal
Agosto 32,126,852
Octubre 33,241,802
Enero 30,434,480
Febrero 32,140,368
Marzo 33,846,255
Abril 35,552,143
Mayo 37,258,030
Junio 38,963,918
Holt
Julio 40,669,806
Agosto 42,375,693
Octubre 45,787,468
Año
Pronosticado
Enero 13,509,588
Febrero 13,809,451
Marzo 14,109,314
Abril 14,409,177
Mayo 14,709,040
Promedio Móvil Junio 15,008,903
Agosto 15,608,629
Octubre 16,208,355
Enero 13,942,266
Febrero 14,596,004
Marzo 15,249,743
Abril 15,903,481
Mayo 16,557,220
Exponencial
Agosto 18,518,435
Octubre 19,825,912
2023 Cusqueña
2023 Cusqueña
Enero 13,694,617
Febrero 13,995,708
Marzo 14,294,272
Abril 14,590,572
Mayo 14,884,850
Agosto 15,757,694
Octubre 16,333,024
Enero 13,660,473
Febrero 13,975,468
Marzo 14,290,463
Abril 14,605,458
Mayo 14,920,453
Junio 15,235,448
Holt
Julio 15,550,442
Agosto 15,865,437
Octubre 16,495,427
Yestimado Lsuperior Rango
50,503,015 51,464,450 1,922,870
51,051,257 52,012,692 1,922,870
51,599,499 52,560,934 1,922,870
52,147,741 53,109,176 1,922,870 1 49,541,580
52,695,983 53,657,418 1,922,870 2
53,244,225 54,205,660 1,922,870 3
53,792,467 54,753,902 1,922,870 4
54,340,709 55,302,144 1,922,870
54,888,951 55,850,386 1,922,870
55,437,193 56,398,628 1,922,870
55,985,435 56,946,870 1,922,870
56,533,677 57,495,112 1,922,870
50,440,407 51,239,164 1,597,515 Método que coincide con el intervalo
50,854,153 51,652,911 1,597,515
51,267,900 52,066,657 1,597,515 Enero
51,681,646 52,480,404 1,597,515 Febrero
52,095,393 52,894,150 1,597,515 Marzo
52,509,139 53,307,896 1,597,515 Abril
52,922,885 53,721,643 1,597,515 Mayo
53,336,632 54,135,389 1,597,515 Junio
53,750,378 54,549,136 1,597,515 Julio
54,164,124 54,962,882 1,597,515 Agosto
54,577,871 55,376,628 1,597,515 Setiembre
54,991,617 55,790,375 1,597,515 Octubre
50,321,249 51,177,188 1,711,878 Noviembre
50,651,752 51,537,558 1,771,613 Diciembre
50,982,255 51,901,007 1,837,505
51,312,757 52,267,215 1,908,916 Modelo: Regresión lineal
51,643,260 52,635,886 1,985,252
51,973,763 53,006,746 2,065,966
52,304,266 53,379,548 2,150,566
52,634,768 53,754,073 2,238,610
52,965,271 54,130,126 2,329,709
53,295,774 54,507,533 2,423,518
53,626,277 54,886,144 2,519,735
53,956,779 55,265,826 2,618,093
50,640,563 51,558,925 1,836,724
51,106,372 52,024,734 1,836,724
51,572,180 52,490,542 1,836,724
52,037,989 52,956,351 1,836,724
52,503,797 53,422,159 1,836,724
52,969,606 53,887,968 1,836,724
53,435,414 54,353,777 1,836,724
53,901,223 54,819,585 1,836,724
54,367,032 55,285,394 1,836,724
54,832,840 55,751,202 1,836,724
55,298,649 56,217,011 1,836,724
55,764,457 56,682,819 1,836,724

31,270,004 32,337,734 2,135,460
32,697,504 33,765,234 2,135,460
34,125,003 35,192,733 2,135,460
35,552,503 36,620,233 2,135,460
36,980,002 38,047,732 2,135,460
38,407,502 39,475,232 2,135,460 1 30,202,274
39,835,001 40,902,731 2,135,460 2
41,262,501 42,330,231 2,135,460 3 28,126,811
42,690,000 43,757,730 2,135,460 4
44,117,500 45,185,230 2,135,460
45,544,999 46,612,729 2,135,460
46,972,499 48,040,229 2,135,460
31,257,781 32,312,694 2,109,826
33,831,072 34,885,985 2,109,826
35,117,718 36,172,631 2,109,826 Enero
36,404,364 37,459,277 2,109,826 Febrero
37,691,009 38,745,922 2,109,826 Marzo
38,977,655 40,032,568 2,109,826 Abril
40,264,301 41,319,214 2,109,826 Mayo
41,550,947 42,605,860 2,109,826 Junio
42,837,592 43,892,505 2,109,826 Julio
44,124,238 45,179,151 2,109,826 Agosto
45,410,884 46,465,797 2,109,826 Setiembre
29,515,639 30,904,468 2,777,657 Octubre
30,148,121 31,585,412 2,874,581 Noviembre
30,780,603 32,271,351 2,981,495 Diciembre
31,413,085 32,961,768 3,097,366
32,678,049 34,354,145 3,352,192
33,310,531 35,055,261 3,489,461
33,943,013 35,759,173 3,632,321
34,575,494 36,465,562 3,780,136
35,207,976 37,174,151 3,932,349
35,840,458 37,884,692 4,088,467
36,472,940 38,596,971 4,248,062
31,455,737 32,476,993 2,042,513
33,161,624 34,182,881 2,042,513
34,867,512 35,888,768 2,042,513
36,573,399 37,594,656 2,042,513
38,279,287 39,300,544 2,042,513
39,985,175 41,006,431 2,042,513
41,691,062 42,712,319 2,042,513
43,396,950 44,418,206 2,042,513
45,102,837 46,124,094 2,042,513
46,808,725 47,829,982 2,042,513
48,514,613 49,535,869 2,042,513
50,220,500 51,241,757 2,042,513

14,106,402 14,703,215 1,193,626
14,406,265 15,003,078 1,193,626
14,706,128 15,302,941 1,193,626 1 13,509,588
15,005,991 15,602,804 1,193,626 2
15,305,854 15,902,667 1,193,626 3
15,605,717 16,202,530 1,193,626 4 13,660,473
15,905,580 16,502,393 1,193,626
16,205,443 16,802,256 1,193,626
16,505,306 17,102,119 1,193,626
16,805,169 17,401,982 1,193,626
17,404,895 18,001,708 1,193,626
14,637,285 15,332,305 1,390,039 Enero
15,291,024 15,986,043 1,390,039 Febrero
15,944,762 16,639,782 1,390,039 Marzo
16,598,501 17,293,520 1,390,039 Abril
17,252,239 17,947,258 1,390,039 Mayo
17,905,977 18,600,997 1,390,039 Junio
18,559,716 19,254,735 1,390,039 Julio
19,213,454 19,908,474 1,390,039 Agosto
19,867,193 20,562,212 1,390,039 Setiembre
20,520,931 21,215,950 1,390,039 Octubre
21,174,670 21,869,689 1,390,039 Noviembre
21,828,408 22,523,427 1,390,039 Diciembre
14,397,066 15,099,515 1,404,897
15,048,270 15,802,268 1,507,996
15,373,872 16,157,173 1,566,601
15,699,475 16,514,099 1,629,248
16,025,077 16,872,821 1,695,488
16,350,679 17,233,137 1,764,917
16,676,281 17,594,868 1,837,173
17,001,883 17,957,851 1,911,936
17,327,485 18,321,947 1,988,923
17,653,087 18,687,030 2,067,885
17,978,690 19,052,992 2,148,606
14,298,066 14,935,658 1,275,185
14,613,061 15,250,653 1,275,185
14,928,055 15,565,648 1,275,185
15,243,050 15,880,643 1,275,185
15,558,045 16,195,638 1,275,185
15,873,040 16,510,632 1,275,185
16,188,035 16,825,627 1,275,185
16,503,030 17,140,622 1,275,185
16,818,025 17,455,617 1,275,185
17,133,019 17,770,612 1,275,185
17,448,014 18,085,607 1,275,185
17,763,009 18,400,602 1,275,185
LIMITES COMUNES (año)
49,641,650
49,465,310
49,722,201
e coincide con el intervalo común
50,321,249
50,651,752
50,982,255
51,312,757
51,643,260
51,973,763
52,304,266
52,634,768
52,965,271
53,295,774
53,626,277
53,956,779
egresión lineal
30,202,867
30,434,480
29,515,639
30,148,121
30,780,603
31,413,085
32,045,567
32,678,049
33,310,531
33,943,013
34,575,494
35,207,976
35,840,458
36,472,940
egresión lineal
13,942,266
13,694,617
14,397,066
14,722,668
15,048,270
15,373,872
15,699,475
16,025,077
16,350,679
16,676,281
17,001,883
17,327,485
17,653,087
17,978,690
egresión lineal
S (año)
57,495,112
55,790,375
56,682,819
S (año)
46,465,797
38,596,971
S (año)
18,001,708
22,523,427
19,052,992
18,400,602
55,265,826
48,040,229
51,241,757
PRONÓSTICOS POR PRODUCTO
Pilsen Callao
DEMANDA PRÓNOSTICADA
Año Mes Linferior Yestimado
Enero 49,465,310 50,321,249
Febrero 49,765,945 50,651,752
Marzo 50,063,502 50,982,255
Abril 50,358,299 51,312,757
Mayo 50,650,634 51,643,260
Junio 50,940,780 51,973,763
2022
Julio 51,228,983 52,304,266
Agosto 51,515,463 52,634,768
Setiembre 51,800,416 52,965,271
Octubre 52,084,015 53,295,774
Noviembre 52,366,409 53,626,277
Diciembre 52,647,733 53,956,779
Cusqueña
Enero 13,694,617 14,397,066
Febrero 13,995,708 14,722,668
Marzo 14,294,272 15,048,270
Abril 14,590,572 15,373,872
Mayo 14,884,850 15,699,475
Junio 15,177,333 16,025,077
2022
Julio 15,468,220 16,350,679
Agosto 15,757,694 16,676,281
Setiembre 16,045,915 17,001,883
Octubre 16,333,024 17,327,485
Noviembre 16,619,145 17,653,087
Diciembre 16,904,387 17,978,690
Cristal
Enero 28,126,811 29,515,639
Febrero 28,710,831 30,148,121
Marzo 29,289,855 30,780,603
Abril 29,864,402 31,413,085
Mayo 30,434,953 32,045,567
Junio 31,001,953 32,678,049
2022
2022
Julio 31,565,800 33,310,531
Agosto 32,126,852 33,943,013
Setiembre 32,685,427 34,575,494
Octubre 33,241,802 35,207,976
Noviembre 33,796,225 35,840,458
Diciembre 34,348,909 36,472,940
RODUCTO PRONÓSTICOS POR FAMILIA
Año
TICADA
Lsuperior Rango
51,177,188 1,711,878
51,537,558 1,771,613
51,901,007 1,837,505
52,267,215 1,908,916
2022
52,635,886 1,985,252
53,006,746 2,065,966
53,379,548 2,150,566
53,754,073 2,238,610
54,130,126 2,329,709
54,507,533 2,423,518
54,886,144 2,519,735
55,265,826 2,618,093
TICADA
Lsuperior Rango
15,099,515 1,404,897
15,449,628 1,453,920
15,802,268 1,507,996
16,157,173 1,566,601
16,514,099 1,629,248
16,872,821 1,695,488
17,233,137 1,764,917
17,594,868 1,837,173
17,957,851 1,911,936
18,321,947 1,988,923
18,687,030 2,067,885
19,052,992 2,148,606
TICADA
Lsuperior Rango
30,904,468 2,777,657
31,585,412 2,874,581
32,271,351 2,981,495
32,961,768 3,097,366
33,656,180 3,221,227
34,354,145 3,352,192
35,055,261 3,489,461
35,759,173 3,632,321
36,465,562 3,780,136
37,174,151 3,932,349
37,884,692 4,088,467
38,596,971 4,248,062
ÓSTICOS POR FAMILIA
Mes Yestimado
Enero 94,233,954
Febrero 95,522,541
Marzo 96,811,128
Abril 98,099,715
Mayo 99,388,301
Junio 100,676,888
Julio 101,965,475
Agosto 103,254,062
Octubre 105,831,235
ZONA LIMA
Centro de Distribución Dirección
RIMAC Jr. Chiclayo 594, Rímac.

CONO SUR Av. Las Torres 193, 195, San Juan de Miraflores.
ATE Av. Asturias 588, Ate Vitarte.
CONO NORTE Calle A Mz. E-F Lotes 8-9. Urb. Pro Industrial – S.M.Porres.
CALLAO Av. Elmer Faucett 4754-4758, Callao.
ZONA CENTRO

Panamericana Sur Km 142, Sector 3 Mundo – Parcela
CAÑETE
5A San Vicente – Cañete.
CHINCHA Panamericana Sur Km 195, Sunampe – Chincha.
ICA Panamericana Sur Km 300, Subtanjalla – Ica.
NAZCA Av. Guardia Civil 1150, Pangaraví – Nazca.
Av. Del Ejército 1153 – 1155 – 1157, Huamanga –
AYACUCHO
Ayacucho.
HUARAZ Av. Centenario S/N Km.5.9, Monterrey – Huaraz.
VEGUETA Calle Panamericana Norte Km.169.20, Vegueta – Huara.

HUARAL Av. Chancay 256, Huaral.
Av. Mariscal Castilla 4799, Quebrada Honda – El Tambo,
HUANCAYO
Huancayo.
Av. Andrés Avelino Cáceres 1042 – 1048, Yananaco –
HUANCAVELICA
Huancavelica.
TARMA Av. Túpac Amaru 597, Tarma.
ZONA NORTE
PACASMAYO Av. Enrique Valenzuela 551, Pacasmayo.

CAJAMARCA Caserio Rural Yanamango Mz 99 Carr.Jesús, Cajamarca.
MOTUPE Av. Industrial Ricardo Bentín Mujica 1101, Motupe.
CHICLAYO Mz. F Lote 01 Parque Industrial, Chiclayo.
TUMBES Av. Tumbes Norte 1776, Tumbes.
TALARA Prolongación Ignacio Merino S/N (Av. F), Talara.
PIURA Av. Grau 1681, Urb. San Jose , Piura.
TRUJILLO Av. 5 Lote 3 Mz. A-1. Parque Industrial, Trujillo.
CHIMBOTE Av. La Marina 153 , Urb.B.Aires , Nvo. Chimbote
ZONA SUR
AREQUIPA Variante de Uchumayo 1801, Sachaca – Arequipa.

CAMANÁ Av. 9 de Noviembre 302, Camaná – Arequipa.
TACNA Av. Circunvalación Mz. C, Lote 5, Pocollay – Tacna.
ILO Parque Industrial Mz. N, Lote 9, Ilo.
JULIACA Parque Industrial Taparachi Km. 2,5, San Román – Juliaca.
CUSCO Av. La Cultura 725, Cusco.
AGUAS CALIENTES Av. Imperio de los Incas 140, Macchu Picchu – Cusco.
PUERTO MALDONADO Av. 2 de Mayo 593, Tambopata – Madre de Dios.
ZONA ORIENTE
Carretera Central Huánuco – Tingo María Km. 1, Amarillis –

HUÁNUCO
Huánuco.
Carretera Fernando Belaunde Terry Km.3.5 – Mapresa,
TINGO MARÍA
Naranjillo.
PUCALLPA Carretera Federico Basadre Km. 13 – Pucallpa.
TARAPOTO Av. Aviación 301-305, Tarapoto.
MOYOBAMBA Carretera Baños Termales Km. 2.5 – Moyobamba.
YURIMAGUAS Calle Mcal. Castilla N° 1000 – Yurimaguas.
IQUITOS Calle Misti 635 – Punchana, Iquitos
SATIPO Carretera Marginal Km. 2 Río Negro, Satipo.
Av. Fray Gerónimo Jiménez 320, Urb. San. Carlos, La
CHANCHAMAYO
Merced.
Costo
Costo de tranporte Volumen Costo de
promedio
(soles/unidad) (unidades) transporte
ponderado
0.034565 23,283,031 Zona Lima 5% 0.034565
0.034565 23,283,031 Zona Centro 15% 0.103695
0.034565 23,283,031 Zona Norte 25% 0.172825
0.034565 23,283,031 Zona Sur 25% 0.172825
0.034565 23,283,031 Zona Oriente 30% 0.20739
Total 100% 0.6913

Costo de tranporte Volumen
(soles/unidad) (unidades)
0.103695 13,228,995 Volumen total de ventas 582,075,774
0.103695 13,228,995 Zona Lima 20% 116,415,155
0.103695 13,228,995 Zona Centro 25% 145,518,944
0.103695 13,228,995 Zona Norte 25% 145,518,944
0.103695 13,228,995 Zona Sur 20% 116,415,155
0.103695 13,228,995 Zona Oriente 10% 58,207,577
0.103695 13,228,995 Total 100%

0.103695 13,228,995
0.103695 13,228,995
0.103695 13,228,995
0.103695 13,228,995

0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 16,168,772
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894
0.172825 14,551,894

0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
0.20739 6,467,509
UBICACIÓN Y CTT costo
volumen (tn)
(soles/tn)
Latitud Longitud ci ei wi = ci * ei wi * xi
RIMAC -12.02 -77.04 0.034565 23,283,031 804,778 -9,673,431
CONO SUR -12.19 -76.97 0.034565 23,283,031 804,778 -9,810,243
ATE -12.03 -76.89 0.034565 23,283,031 804,778 -9,681,479
CONO NORTE -11.96 -77.07 0.034565 23,283,031 804,778 -9,625,144
CALLAO -12.06 -77.07 0.034565 23,283,031 804,778 -9,705,622
CAÑETE -12.81 -76.35 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -17,572,510
CHINCHA -13.45 -76.12 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -18,450,449
ICA -14.06 -75.72 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -19,287,236
NAZCA -14.07 -75.73 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -19,300,953
AYACUCHO -13.16 -74.23 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -18,052,633
HUARAZ -9.52 -77.53 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -13,059,352
VEGUETA -11.02 -77.65 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -15,117,022
HUARAL -11.49 -77.21 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -15,761,759
HUANCAYO -12.07 -75.21 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -16,557,392
HUANCAVELIC
-12.78 -74.97 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -17,531,356
A
TARMA -11.29 -75.72 0.103695 13,228,995 1,371,781 -15,487,403
PACASMAYO -7.42 -79.43 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -20,734,210
CAJAMARCA -7.15 -78.51 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -19,979,731
MOTUPE -6.28 -78.22 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -17,548,631
CHICLAYO -6.78 -79.49 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -18,945,815
TUMBES -3.81 -80.49 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -10,646,542
TALARA -4.57 -81.26 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -12,770,261
PIURA -5.19 -80.63 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -14,502,770
TRUJILLO -8.11 -79.03 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -22,662,324
CHIMBOTE -9.07 -78.59 0.172825 16,168,772 2,794,368 -25,344,917
407,453,042 44,262,788 -397,809,186
X= -8.99 El centro de gravedad se encuentra en La Liberta

Y= -78.10
X Y wi = ci * ei A B (A+B)^0.5
RIMAC -12.02 -77.04 804,778 9 1 3
CONO SUR -12.19 -76.97 804,778 10 1 3
ATE -12.03 -76.89 804,778 9 1 3
CONO NORTE -11.96 -77.07 804,778 9 1 3
CALLAO -12.06 -77.07 804,778 9 1 3
CAÑETE -12.81 -76.35 1,371,781 15 3 4
CHINCHA -13.45 -76.12 1,371,781 20 4 5
ICA -14.06 -75.72 1,371,781 26 6 6
NAZCA -14.07 -75.73 1,371,781 26 6 6
AYACUCHO -13.16 -74.23 1,371,781 17 15 6
HUARAZ -9.52 -77.53 1,371,781 0 0 1
VEGUETA -11.02 -77.65 1,371,781 4 0 2
HUARAL -11.49 -77.21 1,371,781 6 1 3
HUANCAYO -12.07 -75.21 1,371,781 10 8 4
HUANCAVELIC
-12.78 -74.97 1,371,781 14 10 5
A
TARMA -11.29 -75.72 1,371,781 5 6 3
PACASMAYO -7.42 -79.43 2,794,368 2 2 2
CAJAMARCA -7.15 -78.51 2,794,368 3 0 2
MOTUPE -6.28 -78.22 2,794,368 7 0 3
CHICLAYO -6.78 -79.49 2,794,368 5 2 3
TUMBES -3.81 -80.49 2,794,368 27 6 6
TALARA -4.57 -81.26 2,794,368 20 10 5
PIURA -5.19 -80.63 2,794,368 14 6 5
TRUJILLO -8.11 -79.03 2,794,368 1 1 1
CHIMBOTE -9.07 -78.59 2,794,368 0 0 0
44,262,788
El costo total de transporte sera S./ 148075603
PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO
Volumen (tn/año) 1000000 1

CF CV CT
Opciones Millones
US$(000/año) US$/tn
US$
Costa Norte 0.92 2.64 3.56
Sierra Norte 0.50 3.12 3.62
Lima 0.71 2.4 3.11
Punto Inicial
Costa Norte 0.92 Y= 0.92 + 2.64
Sierra Norte 0.50 Y= 0.50 + 3.12
Lima 0.71 Y= 0.71 + 2.4
De acuerdo al gráfico:
Entonces, se concluye que para cubrir desde 1 millo

más, se debe escoger a Lima, ya quelos costos anuale
serán menores
Como mi demanda estimada es 3.5 millones, ademá
2%. Resulta ser mayor a 1 millón. Por ende se selec
como ubicación de la planta
wi * yi
-62,000,094
-61,943,760
-61,879,378
-62,024,238
-62,024,238
-104,735,451
-104,419,941
-103,871,229
-103,884,947
-101,827,276
-106,354,152
-106,518,765
-105,915,182
-103,171,621
-102,842,393
-103,871,229
-221,956,645
-219,385,827
-218,575,460
-222,124,307 Se trabajó geográficamente con latitud y longitud, debido a que no es
-224,918,675 muy precisa la aproximación en un mapa a esa escala, el resultado
-227,070,338 ubica la nueva planta en La Libertad, de modo que atiende a la
-225,309,887 demanda de Lima, Centro y Norte del país.
-220,838,898
-219,609,376
-3,457,073,304
cuentra en La Libertad
CTT
2,586,230
2,733,988
2,636,118
2,532,684
2,608,833
5,769,034
6,699,042
7,688,258
7,694,862
7,809,916
1,073,485
2,856,747
3,645,151
5,799,536
6,748,487
4,546,014
5,738,188
5,258,707
7,572,601
7,284,416
15,930,803
15,171,653
12,745,618
3,566,000
1,379,230
148,075,603
*X
*X
*X
a cubrir desde 1 millon de toneladas a

a quelos costos anuales de producción
án menores
es 3.5 millones, además del colchón de
llón. Por ende se seleccionará a Lima
ación de la planta
MÉTODOS QFR
Zona Lima Zona Centro

Factor relevante Peso Calificación PonderaciónCalificación Ponderación
Costo de terreno 0.15 5 0.75 8 1.2
Agua 0.25 9 2.25 6 1.5
Mano de obra 0.05 8 0.4 8 0.4
Materia prima 0.15 8 1.2 7 1.05
Energía eléctrica 0.25 9 2.25 7 1.75
Clima 0.05 8 0.4 8 0.4
Cercanía al público objetivo 0.1 6 0.6 7 0.7
Total 1 7.85 7
Zona Norte
Calificación Ponderación
6 0.9
7 1.75
8 0.4
6 0.9
8 2
8 0.4
8 0.8
7.15
MÉTODOS DE TRANSPORTE
Centro de distribución
Planta
Lima Centro Norte Sur Oriente
Zona Lima 0.034565 0.103695 0.172825 0.172825 0.20739
Zona Centro 0.06913 0.034565 0.172825 0.13826 0.27652
Zona Norte 0.06913 0.103695 0.034565 0.27652 0.20739
Centro de Volumen total

distribución de la demanda Planta
Lima 116,415,155 Zona Lima
Centro 145,518,944 Zona Centro
Norte 145,518,944 Zona Norte
Sur 116,415,155
Oriente 58,207,577
Total 582,075,774
% Costo % Costo
Lima 0.05 0.034565 Lima 0.1 0.06913
Centro 0.15 0.103695 Centro 0.05 0.034565
Norte 0.25 0.172825 Norte 0.25 0.172825
Sur 0.25 0.172825 Sur 0.2 0.13826
Oriente 0.3 0.20739 Oriente 0.4 0.27652
Total 1 0.6913 Total 1 0.6913
Costo de transporte
S/ 76,453,906.69
S/ 70,418,071.95
S/ 72,430,016.86
% Costo
Lima 0.1 0.06913
Centro 0.15 0.103695
Norte 0.05 0.034565
Sur 0.4 0.27652
Oriente 0.3 0.20739
Total 1 0.6913
DEMANDA Enero
Botellas 94,233,954.3
DEMANDA Julio
Botellas 101,965,475.0
Datos:
Hm disponible 2500
jordana 8
Mes 24
Productividad 0.0052
Stock Inicial (SI) 55,000,000

Stock Final (SF) 54,000,000
Costo Mant.Iventario(cmanto) 1.8

Costo Mano de Obra(MO) 4.00
Incremento Hora extra(Hex) 19%
Maximo Horas extras(Hex Max) 20%
Costo de Materia Prima(MP) 1.50

Costo de Concentratacion (Contrato) 1,267
Costo de Despido(Despedido) 1,356
Enero
Demanda(unid) 94,233,954
Produccion(unid) 101,243,077
Demanda Acumulada(unid) 94,233,954

Produccion Acumulada(unid) 101,243,077
Análisis Gráfico
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demanda Acumulada(unid) Produccion Acumula
2750-2744.79
Costo Relevantes Costos de los inventarios:
Costo de contratar
Salario:
2744-2744.79
Costos de los inventarios:
Estrategia Capacidad Constante o Nivelada
Enero
DEMANDA 94,233,954.3
SF deseado( 54,000,000
SI (unid/mes) 55,000,000
Unid/hm-mes 36,923
hm.req 2,742
hm.disponible 2500
Contrato/despido(m) 242
Produccion(unid/mes) 101,243,077
Horario Normal HN(unid/mes) 101,243,077
Horas Extras Hex(unid/mes)
Costos (s/./mes) 264,830,049

Horas Normales (HN) 1,042,399
Horas extras(Hex) 0
Materia Prima Mp 151,864,615.38
Inventarios 111,616,421
Contratos/despidos 306,614
Concepto
Costo Directo HN+Hex+MP
Gastos Administrativo Inv+cont/desp
Total
Febrero Marzo Abril
95,522,541.1 96,811,127.9 98,099,714.7
Agosto Setiembre Octubre

103,254,061.8 104,542,648.6 105,831,235.4
operarios
hrs/dia
dias/mes
hrs-hm/unid
unidades (al 31 de Diciembre presente año)

unidades (cada)mes
S/./unid
S/./unid HN:Horas Normales
0.76
mensual (x3 meses/año)
S/./unid
S/./hm
S/./hm
Febrero Marzo Abril

95,522,541 96,811,128 98,099,715
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
189,756,495 286,567,623 384,667,338

202,486,154 303,729,231 404,972,308
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
a(unid) Produccion Acumulada(unid)
Hmb dias unid/dia

3.14 288 1538.5
1267
3.14 288 8
Hmb dias hr/dia

2.14 288 8
Febrero Marzo Abril

95,522,541.1 96,811,127.9 98,099,714.7
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000

62,009,123 67,729,658 72,161,607
36,923 36,923 36,923
2,742 2,742 2,742
2,742 2,742 2,742
0 0 0
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077

101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
274,820,399 282,797,908 288,455,960

1,042,399 1,042,399 1,042,399
0 0 0
151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38
121,913,385 129,890,893 135,548,946
Monto(S/./año) Produccion (unitario) Costo Unitario(S/./unid)

1,834,884,169 1,214,916,923 1.5103
1,509,022,950 1,214,916,923 1.2421
tal 2.7524
Mayo Junio
99,388,301.5 100,676,888.3
Noviembre Diciembre
107,119,822.2 108,408,409.0
Año 12 mes/año
Mayo Junio Julio

99,388,301 100,676,888 101,965,475
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
484,055,639 584,732,528 686,698,003

506,215,385 607,458,462 708,701,538
P=SF-SI+D
Produccion 1,214,854,179.8
Produccion(P) 1,214,854,179.8
Disponibilidad Mes 24
Disponibilidad Año 12
Disponi.dias de produccion Año 288
Produccion dia prom 4218243.7
Jornada 8
Productividad 0.0052
Productividad diaria persona 1538.46153846154
Hombres Requerido 2741.86
S/./und
1.8 S/ 2,505,553.30
S/ 1,267.00
1.98 S/ 14,331.76
Total S/ 2,521,152.07
s/./dia
1.98 1.19
Total S/ 11,626.12
Mayo Junio Julio

99,388,301.5 100,676,888.3 101,965,475.0
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000

75,304,970 77,159,745 77,725,934
36,923 36,923 36,923
2,742 2,742 2,742
2,742 2,742 2,742
0 0 0
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077

101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
291,794,555 292,813,695 291,513,378

1,042,399 1,042,399 1,042,399
0 0 0
151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38
138,887,541 139,906,681 138,606,364
Demanda Estimada

103,254,062 104,542,649 105,831,235
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
789,952,065 894,494,713 1,000,325,949

809,944,615 911,187,692 1,012,430,769
unid/año
dias/mes
meses/año
dias/año
unid/dia
hrs/dia
hrs-hm/unid
unid/dia-hm
hm

103,254,061.8 104,542,648.6 105,831,235.4
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000

77,003,536 74,992,551 71,692,979
36,923 36,923 36,923
2,742 2,742 2,742
2,742 2,742 2,742
0 0 0
101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077

101,243,077 101,243,077 101,243,077
287,893,606 281,954,377 273,695,691

1,042,399 1,042,399 1,042,399
0 0 0
151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38 ###
134,986,592 129,047,362 120,788,677
Noviembre Diciembre
107,119,822 108,408,409
101,243,077 101,243,077
1,107,445,771 1,215,854,180 D>P

1,113,673,846 1,214,916,923
Noviembre Diciembre Total año
107,119,822.2 108,408,409.0
54,000,000 54,000,000
67,104,821 61,228,075 54,062,743
36,923 36,923
2,742 2,742
2,742 2,742
0 0
101,243,077 101,243,077 1,214,916,923

101,243,077 101,243,077 1,214,916,923
263,117,550 250,219,952 3,343,907,120

1,042,399 1,042,399 12,508,785
0 0
151,864,615.38 151,864,615.38 1,822,375,384.62
110,210,536 97,312,938 1,508,716,336
306,614
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demanda Acumulada(unid) Produccion Acumulada(unid)

Demanda Estimada
Demanda (unid/mes)
SF Deseado (unid/mes)
SI (unid/mes)
Unid / hm mes
hm Req
hm Dispo
Contrato / Despido (hm)
Producción (unid/mes)
Horario Normal HN (unid/mes)
Horas Extras Hex (unid/mes)
Costos (US$/mes)
Horas Normales HN 4.0000
Horas Extras Hex 4.8000
Materia Prima 1.5000
Inventarios 1.8000
Contrato / Despido
Demanda Acum.
Producción Acum.
DEMANDA Enero Febrero
Botellas 94,233,954.3 95,522,541.1
DEMANDA Julio Agosto

Botellas 101,965,475.0 103,254,061.8
Datos:
Hm disponible 2500 operarios

jordana 8 hrs/dia
Mes 24 dias/mes
Productividad 0.0052 hrs-hm/unid
Stock Inicial (SI) 55,000,000.00 unidades

Stock Final (SF) 54,000,000.00 unidades
Costo Mant.Iventario(cmanto) 1.8 S/./unid

Costo Mano de Obra(MO) 4.00 S/./unid
Incremento Hora extra(Hex) 19% 0.76
Maximo Horas extras(Hex Max) 20% mensual
Costo de Materia Prima(MP) 1.50 S/./unid

Costo de Concentratacion (Contrato) 1,267 S/./hm
Costo de Despido(Despedido) 1,356 S/./hm
Enero Febrero Marzo

94,233,954 95,522,541 96,811,128
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
55,000,000 54,033,738 54,031,197

36,923 36,923 36,923
2,526 2,587 2,622
2,500 2,526 2,587
26 61 35
93,267,692 95,520,000 96,812,308

93,267,692 95,520,000 96,812,308
238,118,998 241,541,031.4 243,452,857

923,789 927,590 931,772
0 0 0
139,901,538 143,280,000 145,218,462
97,260,728 97,256,154 97,258,278
32,942 77,287 44,345
94,233,954 189,756,495 286,567,623

93,267,692 188,787,692 285,600,000
Concepto Monto(S/./año)
Costo Directo HN+Hex+MP 1,833,682,222
Gasto Administrativo Inv+cont/desp 1,167,390,594
Total
Marzo Abril Mayo
96,811,127.9 98,099,714.7 99,388,301.5
Setiembre Octubre Noviembre

104,542,648.6 105,831,235.4 107,119,822.2
Año 12 mes/año
(al 31 de Diciembre presente año)

(cada)mes
HN:Horas Normales
(x3 meses/año)
Abril Mayo Junio

98,099,715 99,388,301 100,676,888
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
54,032,377 54,000,354 54,008,976

36,923 36,923 36,923
2,656 2,692 2,727
2,622 2,656 2,692
34 36 35
98,067,692 99,396,923 100,689,231

98,067,692 99,396,923 100,689,231
245,281,588 247,297,669 249,261,262

936,334 940,516 944,698
0 0 0
147,101,538 149,095,385 151,033,846
97,200,638 97,216,157 97,238,373
43,078 45,612 44,345
384,667,338 484,055,639 584,732,528

383,667,692 483,064,615 583,753,846
Produccion (unitario) Costo Unitario(S/./unid) 1,400,000,000

1,214,880,000 1.50935
1,214,880,000 0.96091
1,200,000,000
2.47026
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2 3 4
Dema
0
1 2 3 4
Dema
Junio
100,676,888.3
Diciembre
108,408,409.0
P=SF-SI+D
Produccion 1,214,854,179.8
Produccion(P) 1,214,854,179.8 unid/año
Disponibilidad Mes 24 dias/mes

Disponibilidad Año 12 meses/año
Disponi.dias de produccion Año 288 dias/año
Produccion dia prom 4218243.7 unid/dia
Jornada 8 hrs/dia
Productividad diaria persona 1538.46153846154 unid/dia-hm
Hombres Requerido 2741.86 hm
Julio Agosto Setiembre Octubre

101,965,475 103,254,062 104,542,649 105,831,235
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
54,021,318 54,000,459 54,020,243 54,006,825

36,923 36,923 36,923 36,923
2,761 2,797 2,831 2,867
2,727 2,761 2,797 2,831
34 36 34 36
101,944,615 103,273,846 104,529,231 105,858,462

101,944,615 103,273,846 104,529,231 105,858,462
251,109,706 253,146,260 255,006,452.7 257,056,402

948,879 953,441 957,243 961,805
0 0 0 0
152,916,923 154,910,769 156,793,846 158,787,692
97,200,826 97,236,438 97,212,286 97,261,293
43,078 45,612 43,078 45,612
686,698,003 789,952,065 894,494,713 1,000,325,949

685,698,462 788,972,308 893,501,538 999,360,000
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demanda Acum. Producción Acum.
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Noviembre Diciembre Total
107,119,822 108,408,409 1,215,854,180
54,000,000 54,000,000
54,034,051 54,028,075 54,025,820

36,923 36,923
2,901 2,936
2,867 2,901
34 35
107,113,846 108,406,154 1,214,880,000

107,113,846 108,406,154 1,214,880,000
0
258,930,369.9 260,870,220 3,001,072,816

965,987 970,168 11,362,222
0 0 0
160,670,769 162,609,231 1,822,320,000
97,250,536 97,246,476 1,166,838,182
43,078 44,345 552,412
1,107,445,771 1,215,854,180 D>P

1,106,473,846 1,214,880,000
10 11 12
10 11 12
Demanda Estimada
DEMANDA Enero Febrero
Botellas 94,233,954.3 95,522,541.1
DEMANDA Julio Agosto

Botellas 101,965,475.0 103,254,061.8
Datos:
Hm disponible 2500 operarios

jordana 8 hrs/dia
Mes 24 dias/mes
Stock Inicial (SI) 55,000,000.00 unidades

Stock Final (SF) 54,000,000.00 unidades
Costo Mant.Iventario(cmanto) 1.8 S/./unid

Costo Mano de Obra(MO) 4.00 S/./unid
Incremento Hora extra(Hex) 19% 0.76
Maximo Horas extras(Hex Max) 20% mensual
Costo de Materia Prima(MP) 1.50 S/./unid

Costo de Concentratacion (Contrato) 1,267 S/./hm
Costo de Despido(Despedido) 1,356 S/./hm
Enero
94,233,954
Demanda
SI
SF
Produccion
Prod. Dia
hm req.
SF Deseado (unid/mes) 54,000,000
SI (unid/mes) 55,000,000
Unid / hm mes 36,923
hm Req 2,605
hm Dispo 2,500
Contrato / Despido (hm) 105
Producción (unid/mes) 96,184,615

Horario Normal HN (unid/mes) 96,184,615
Costos (US$/mes) 247,911,465

Horas Normales HN 1.9800 990316.8
Horas Extras Hex 2.3562 0
Materia Prima 1.5000 144,276,923
Inventarios 1.8000 102,511,190
Contrato / Despido 133,035
Demanda Acum. 94,233,954

Producción Acum. 96,184,615
Concepto Monto(S/./año)
Costo Directo HN+Hex+MP 1,888,864,472
Gasto Administrativo Inv+cont/desp 1,818,094,499
Total
Enero
Demanda (unid/mes) 89,691,619
SF Deseado (unid/mes) 89,691,619
SI (unid/mes) 55,000,000
Unid / hm mes 36,923
hm Req 3,369
hm Dispo 2,500
Contrato / Despido (hm) 869
Producción (unid/mes) 124,393,846

Horario Normal HN (unid/mes) 124,393,846
Costos (US$/mes) 350,079,590

Horas Normales HN 4.0000 923,789
Horas Extras Hex 4.8000 0
Materia Prima 1.5000 186,590,769
Inventarios 1.8000 161,464,009
Contrato / Despido 1,101,023
Demanda Acum. 89,691,619

Producción Acum. 124,393,846
Concepto
Costo Directo
Gasto
Administrativo
Tot
Demanda (unid/mes
Demanda acumulad
Producción (unid/m
Produccion Acumud
Marzo Abril Mayo
96,811,127.9 98,099,714.7 99,388,301.5
Setiembre Octubre Noviembre

104,542,648.6 105,831,235.4 107,119,822.2
Año 12 mes/año
(al 31 de Diciembre presente año)

(cada)mes
HN:Horas Normales
(x3 meses/año)
Febrero Marzo Abril

95,522,541 96,811,128 98,099,715
384,667,338
89,691,619
89,691,619
384,667,338
4006951.43701438
2,605
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
56,950,661 57,612,735 56,986,223
36,923 36,923 36,923
2,605 2,605 2,605
2,605 2,605 2,605
0 0 0
96,184,615 96,184,615 96,184,615

96,184,615 96,184,615 96,184,615
248,970,163.5 247,842,441 244,395,262

990316.8 990316.8 990316.8
0 0 0
144,276,923 144,276,923 144,276,923
103,702,924 102,575,201 99,128,022
0 0 0
189,756,495 286,567,623 384,667,338

192,369,231 288,553,846 384,738,462
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
Produccion (unitario) Costo Unitario(S/./unid)
1,250,658,462 1.51030 600,000,000
1,250,658,462 1.45371
2.96401 400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2
Febrero Marzo Abril
90,104,421 90,517,223 90,930,025
89,691,619 89,691,619 89,691,619
89,702,227 89,727,037 89,708,275

36,923 36,923 36,923
2,441 2,451 2,463
3,369 2,441 2,451
-928 10 12
90,129,231 90,498,462 90,941,538

90,129,231 90,498,462 90,941,538
298,888,182.9 298,167,030 298,859,466

927,590 931,772 936,334
0 0 0
135,193,846 135,747,692 136,412,308
161,508,666 161,474,896 161,495,620
1,258,080 12,670 15,204
179,796,040 270,313,263 361,243,288

214,523,077 305,021,538 395,963,077
Monto(S/./año) Produccion (unitario)

HN+Hex+MP 1,718,759,145 1,138,264,615
1,940,382,496 1,138,264,615
Inv+cont/desp
Total
89,691,619 90,104,421 90,517,223

89,691,619 179,796,040 270,313,263
124,393,846 90,129,231 90,498,462

124,393,846 214,523,077 305,021,538
Junio
100,676,888.3 Demanda Estimada
Diciembre
108,408,409.0
P=SF-SI+D
Produccion 1,214,854,179.8
Produccion(P) 1,214,854,179.8 unid/año
Disponibilidad Mes 24 dias/mes

Disponibilidad Año 12 meses/año
Disponi.dias de produccion Año 288 dias/año
Produccion dia prom 4218243.7 unid/dia
Jornada 8 hrs/dia
Productividad diaria persona 1538.46153846154 unid/dia-hm
Hombres Requerido 2741.86 hm
Mayo Junio Julio Agosto

99,388,301 100,676,888 101,965,475 103,254,062
405,284,727
55,071,124
89,691,619
439,905,222
4582346.06262
2,979
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
55,071,124 65,676,668 74,993,626 83,021,997
36,923 36,923 36,923 36,923
2,979 2,979 2,979 2,979
2,605 2,979 2,979 2,979
374 0 0 0
109,993,846 109,993,846 109,993,846 109,993,846

109,993,846 109,993,846 109,993,846 109,993,846
284,815,127 301,111,793 315,562,861 327,694,473

1132496.64 1132496.64 1132496.64 1132496.64
0 0 0 0
164,990,769 164,990,769 164,990,769 164,990,769
118,218,003 134,988,527 149,439,595 161,571,207
473,858 0 0 0
484,055,639 584,732,528 686,698,003 789,952,065

494,732,308 604,726,154 714,720,000 824,713,846
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Mayo Junio Julio Agosto
91,342,828 91,755,630 92,168,432 92,581,234
89,691,619 89,691,619 89,691,619 89,691,619
89,719,789 89,724,653 89,722,869 89,714,437

36,923 36,923 36,923 36,923
2,474 2,485 2,496 2,507
2,463 2,474 2,485 2,496
11 11 11 11
91,347,692 91,753,846 92,160,000 92,566,154

91,347,692 91,753,846 92,160,000 92,566,154
299,480,367 300,090,569 300,688,803 301,275,452

940,516 944,698 948,879 953,441
0 0 0 0
137,021,538 137,630,769 138,240,000 138,849,231
161,504,376 161,501,165 161,485,987 161,458,843
13,937 13,937 13,937 13,937
452,586,116 544,341,746 636,510,178 729,091,412

487,310,769 579,064,615 671,224,615 763,790,769
Costo Unitario(S/./unid)
1.50998
1.70468
3.21467
90,930,025 91,342,828 91,755,630 92,168,432

361,243,288 452,586,116 544,341,746 636,510,178
90,941,538 91,347,692 91,753,846 92,160,000

395,963,077 487,310,769 579,064,615 671,224,615
Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Total
104,542,649 105,831,235 107,119,822 108,408,409 1,215,854,180
425,902,115
89,761,782
89,691,619
425,831,953
4435749.50662879
2,884
54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000
89,761,782 91,705,287 92,360,205 91,726,537 193,776,941
36,923 36,923 36,923 36,923
2,884 2,884 2,884 2,884
2,979 2,884 2,884 2,884
-95 0 0 0
106,486,154 106,486,154 106,486,154 106,486,154 1,250,658,462

106,486,154 106,486,154 106,486,154 106,486,154 1,250,658,462
0
326,023,919 327,073,982 325,933,379 509,624,106 3,706,958,971

1096381.44 1096381.44 1096381.44 1096381.44 12,876,780
0 0 0 0 0
159,729,231 159,729,231 159,729,231 159,729,231 1,875,987,692
165,069,516 166,248,369 165,107,766 348,798,494 1,817,358,816
128,791 0 0 0 735,684
894,494,713 1,000,325,949 1,107,445,771 1,215,854,180 D<P

931,200,000 1,037,686,154 1,144,172,308 1,250,658,462
7 8 9 10 11 12
oducción Acum.
Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre Total
92,994,037 93,406,839 93,819,641 94,232,443 1,103,544,372
89,691,619 89,691,619 89,691,619 89,691,619
89,699,357 89,714,551 89,723,097 89,724,994 89,720,243

36,923 36,923 36,923 36,923
2,519 2,530 2,541 2,552
2,507 2,519 2,530 2,541
12 11 11 11
93,009,231 93,415,385 93,821,538 94,227,692 1,138,264,615

93,009,231 93,415,385 93,821,538 94,227,692 1,138,264,615
0
301,972,485.0 302,600,393 303,217,221.0 303,822,082 3,659,141,641

957,243 961,805 965,987 970,168 11,362,222
0 0 0 0 0
139,513,846 140,123,077 140,732,308 141,341,538 1,707,396,923
161,486,192 161,501,574 161,504,989 161,496,438 1,937,882,755
15,204 13,937 13,937 13,937 2,499,740
822,085,449 915,492,288 1,009,311,929 1,103,544,372

856,800,000 950,215,385 1,044,036,923 1,138,264,615
92,581,234 92,994,037 93,406,839 93,819,641 94,232,443

729,091,412 822,085,449 915,492,288 1,009,311,929 1,103,544,372
92,566,154 93,009,231 93,415,385 93,821,538 94,227,692

763,790,769 856,800,000 950,215,385 1,044,036,923 1,138,264,615
34,804,282
4,200,000,000
3,500,000,000
2,800,000,000
2,100,000,000
2.75238
2
1,400,000,000
700,000,000
0 Constante Variable
Costo total(S/.) Co
Costo directo (S/.)

Costo administrativo(S/.)
Costo unitario(S/.)
Costo total(S/.)
Costo Unitario(S/.)
00 4.00000
00
00 3.00000
2.96401
00
2.75238
2.47026
00 2.00000
00
0 Constante Variable Mixta

1.00000
Costo total(S/.) Costo Unitario(S/.)
Constante Variable Mixta

1.51030 1.50935 1.51030
1.24208 0.96091 1.45371
2.75238 2.47026 2.96401
Constante Variable Mixta

3,343,907,120 3,001,072,816 3,706,958,971
2.75238 2.47026 2.96401
CONTROL DE PEDIDOS
SI: 55,000,000 unid

Barrera de demanda: 1 quincena 1 quincena
TA: 1 quincena 1 quincena
Lote: 10000000 unid 100,000,000 unid
ENERO FEBRERO
94,233,954 95,522,541
Quinc 1 Quinc 2 Quinc 1 Quinc 2
Pronóstico 47,116,977 47,116,977 47,761,271 47,761,271
Pedidos 50,000,000 55,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000
BDP 5,000,000 50,000,000 2,238,729 54,477,459
DPP 5,000,000 0 13,000,000
PMP 100,000,000 100,000,000
VALIDACIÓN CON EL PLAN AGREGADO
SI: 55,000,000 unid

Barrera de demanda: 1 quincena 1 quincena
TA: 1 quincena 1 quincena
Lote: 10000000 unid 100,000,000 unid
ENERO FEBRERO
94,233,954 95,522,541
Quinc 1 Quinc 2 Quinc 1 Quinc 2
Pronóstico 47,116,977 47,116,977 47,761,271 47,761,271
Pedidos 50,000,000 55,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000
BDP 5,000,000 50,000,000 2,238,729 54,477,459
DPP 5,000,000 0 13,000,000
PMP 100,000,000 100,000,000
Total mes PMP 100,000,000 100,000,000
PA Mes 94,264,615 95,520,000
(Método Variable)
PLAN MAESTRO DE PRODUCCIÓN
MARZO ABRIL MAYO

96,811,128 98,099,715 99,388,301
Quinc 1 Quinc 2 Quinc 1 Quinc 2 Quinc 1 Quinc 2
48,405,564 48,405,564 49,049,857 49,049,857 49,694,151 49,694,151
47,000,000 49,000,000 48,000,000 46,000,000 44,000,000 47,000,000
6,071,895 57,071,895 8,022,038 58,972,180 9,278,030 59,583,879
3,000,000 10,000,000 23,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
MARZO ABRIL MAYO

96,811,128 98,099,715 99,388,301
48,405,564 48,405,564 49,049,857 49,049,857 49,694,151 49,694,151
47,000,000 49,000,000 48,000,000 46,000,000 44,000,000 47,000,000
6,071,895 57,071,895 8,022,038 58,972,180 9,278,030 59,583,879
3,000,000 10,000,000 23,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
96,812,308 98,104,615 99,360,000
JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO
100,676,888 101,965,475 103,254,062
50,338,444 50,338,444 50,982,738 50,982,738 51,627,031 51,627,031
30,000,000 44,000,000 42,000,000 50,000,000 48,000,000 43,000,000
9,245,435 58,906,991 7,924,253 56,941,516 5,314,485 53,687,454
2,000,000 2,000,000 14,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO

100,676,888 101,965,475 103,254,062
50,338,444 50,338,444 50,982,738 50,982,738 51,627,031 51,627,031
30,000,000 44,000,000 42,000,000 50,000,000 48,000,000 43,000,000
9,245,435 58,906,991 7,924,253 56,941,516 5,314,485 53,687,454
2,000,000 2,000,000 14,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
100,689,231 101,981,538 103,236,923
SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE
104,542,649 105,831,235 107,119,822
52,271,324 52,271,324 52,915,618 52,915,618 53,559,911 53,559,911
43,000,000 50,000,000 38,000,000 42,000,000 48,000,000 47,000,000
1,416,129 49,144,805 96,229,187 43,313,570 89,753,659 36,193,747
50,000,000 20,000,000 5,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE

104,542,649 105,831,235 107,119,822
52,271,324 52,271,324 52,915,618 52,915,618 53,559,911 53,559,911
43,000,000 50,000,000 38,000,000 42,000,000 48,000,000 47,000,000
1,416,129 49,144,805 96,229,187 43,313,570 89,753,659 36,193,747
50,000,000 20,000,000 5,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
100,000,000 100,000,000 100,000,000
104,529,231 105,858,462 107,113,846
DICIEMBRE
108,408,409
Quinc 1 Quinc 2
54,204,204 54,204,204
46,000,000 53,000,000
81,989,543 27,785,338
1,000,000
100,000,000
DICIEMBRE
108,408,409
Quinc 1 Quinc 2
54,204,204 54,204,204
46,000,000 53,000,000
81,989,543 27,785,338
1,000,000
100,000,000
100,000,000
108,406,154
2020
Artículos almacenados 2,237,738.20
Órdenes de compras atendidas 551,107.94
Volumen de almacén (m3) 46,153.35
(tn) 26,897.61
Existencias S/ 2,757,085,000.00
Gastos 2020
Aire comprimido S/ 20,731.00
Almacenero S/ 14,000.00
Camión S/ 83,297,000.00
Chofer S/ 48,850.00
Comprador S/ 7,232,000.00
Energía eléctrica S/ 66,505.00
Gastos financieros(Mantenimiento) S/ 58,348,000.00
Gastos mantenimiento camión S/ 619,746,000.00
Gastos mantenimiento montacarga
Analista de inventario S/ 240,000.00
Mensajería(ordenamiento) -
Merma S/ 5,834,800.00
Montacarga -
Renovación equipos almacenes S/ 2,833.00
Secretaría S/ 48,850.00
Seguros S/ 20,780,000.00
Teléfono S/ 803,666.67
Mantenimiento % de inv 3.08%

Ordenamiento 1290.88
Almacenamiento $/m3 2.25
Orden de compra por lote de 500 cervezas
2021 Almacenamiento en docenas (cajas de cerveza), de dimension
3,013,874.80
609,708.17 altura 12.5 cm =
62,161.17 ancho 33 cm =
36,226.78 largo 50 cm =
S/ 1,177,500,000.00 Volumen caja llena 0.020625
2021
S/ 17,871.00
S/ 14,000.00
S/ 83,297,000.00
S/ 62,000.00
S/ 7,500,000.00
S/ 72,204.00
S/ 90,159,000.00
S/ 63,450,000.00 Peso cerveza 920 gr
Peso caja 980 gr
S/ 240,000.00 Peso caja llena 12020 gr =
-
S/ 9,015,900.00 Merma es 10% de los gastos financieros
-
S/ 5,440.00
S/ 48,850.00
S/ 38,723,000.00
S/ 803,666.67
11.71%
254.88
1.76
00 cervezas
cajas de cerveza), de dimensiones 2020
Almacenamiento
0.125 m S/ 20,731.00
0.33 m S/ 14,000.00
0.5 m
m3/caja S/ 66,505.00
S/ 2,833.00
S/ 104,069.00
12.02 kg = 0.01202 tn/caja 2.25

$/m3
Año
Mantenimiento
Ordenamiento
Almacenamiento
Costos de Ordenamiento
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
0.00
2020 2021
200.00
0.00
2020 2021
2020 2021
Ordenamiento Mantenimiento Almacenamiento Ordenamiento
S/ 17,871.00
S/ 14,000.00
S/ 83,297,000.00 S/ 83,297,000.00
S/ 48,850.00 S/ 62,000.00
S/ 72,204.00
S/ 58,348,000.00
S/ 5,834,800.00
S/ 7,232,000.00 S/ 7,500,000.00
S/ 619,746,000.00 S/ 63,450,000.00
S/ 20,780,000.00
S/ 240,000.00 S/ 240,000.00
S/ 5,440.00
S/ 48,850.00 S/ 48,850.00
S/ 803,666.67 S/ 803,666.67
S/ 711,416,366.67 S/ 84,962,800.00 S/ 109,515.00 S/ 155,401,516.67
1290.88 3.08% 1.76 254.88

$/OrdenCom. % de inv $/m3 $/OrdenCom.
2020 2021
Costos de Mantenimiento
3.08% 11.71%
1290.88 254.88 14.00%
2.25 1.76 12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
Costos de Ordenamiento 4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
2020 2021
Costos de Almacenamiento
2.50
2.00
1.50
2020 2021
1.00
0.50
2.00
1.50
2020 2021
1.00
0.50
0.00
1 2
021
Mantenimiento
S/ 90,159,000.00
S/ 9,015,900.00
S/ 38,723,000.00
S/ 137,897,900.00
11.71%
% de inv
e Mantenimiento
2021
os de Almacenamiento
2
SETUP DE LA MAQUINA LLENADORA
Cantidad (emitida
Producto Unidad Peso(gr)
en OT)
Pilsen Callao Botella 1,075,136 310

Cusqueña Botella 359,574 330
Cristal Botella 729,459 330
Numero de O/T 3 órdenes de trabajo
Operación
24 hr/dia
6 dias/sem
Trabajador
Salario 1,025 soles/mes
Jornada 48 hr/sem 52
Vacaciones 1 sueldos/año
Gratificaciones 2 sueldos/año
Beneficios sociales 10%
CTS 10%
Sobretasa 30% Turno 2
Requerimientos
Maquina llenadora 3 trabajadores
Costos
Materia Prima(MP) 2 S/./unid
Maquina llenadora 13 S/./Hr-maq
Costo de labor (hr-hm)

Sueldo nominal
Mensual Sueldos/año Anual
1,025 15 15,375
Sueldo real
Base anual Factor Total
Turno I 15,375 1 15,375
Turno II 15,375 1.30 19,988
Promedio = 17,681
Costos Laborales
Tasa Total
Beneficios Sociales 10% 1,768
CTS 10.3% 1,821
Total = 3,589
Costo Hombre al año 21,271 soles/año
Costo semana 52 sem/año 409

Costo HR- Hm Soles 48 hr/sem 9
Cálculo de SETUP
Produccion Real Tiempo Neto de Tiempo de Setup

Producto
(unidades) Producción (hr) (hr)
Pilsen Callao 1,075,135 702 13

Cusqueña 359,573 260 10
Cristal 729,458 527 13
Recursos para todos los Setups 37
Setup recursos Unidad de medida Costo unitario Consumo total

Tiempo: hr-maq hr 13 37
Labor: hr-hm hr 9 110
Materia Prima Kg 2 138,535
Costo SETUP 69,738 soles/OT

UINA LLENADORA
Materia prima (Kg)

Hrs- mq
Producto Prod. usadas
TC seg/uni Asignada
defectuoso Final
2 399,950 33,329 333,292 715

3 142,391 11,866 118,659 270
3 288,866 24,072 240,721 540
sem/año
Porque esas maquinas tienen cambio

en el proceso, lo cual se tienen que
configurar en el tamaño y tipo de
botella para cada producto.
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/sem
soles/hora-hm
Setup Labor Materia Prima

(hr-hm) Setup (Kg)
40 66,658
31 23,732
40 48,144
110 138,535
Total (soles)
476
937
207,802
209,215
SETUP DE LA MAQUINA TAPADORA
Cantidad
Producto unidad Peso(gr)
(emitida en OT)
Pilsen Callao Botella 1,075,136 310

Cusqueña Botella 359,574 330
Cristal Botella 729,459 330
Numero de O/T 3 órdenes de trabajo
Operación
24 hr/dia
6 dias/sem
Trabajador
Salario 1,025 soles/mes
Jornada 48 hr/sem 52
Vacaciones 1 sueldos/año
Gratificaciones 2 sueldos/año
Beneficios sociales 10%
CTS 10%
Sobretasa 30% Turno 2
Requerimientos
Maquina tapadora 3 trabajadores
Costos
Materia Prima(MP) 2 S/./unid
Maquina tapadora 14 S/./Hr-maq
Costo de labor (hr-hm)

Sueldo nominal
Mensual Sueldos/año Anual
1,025 15 15,375
Sueldo real
Base anual Factor Total
Turno I 15,375 1 15,375
Turno II 15,375 1.30 19,988
Promedio = 17,681
Costos Laborales
Tasa Total
Beneficios Sociales 10% 1,768
CTS 10.30% 1,821
Total = 3,589
Costo Hombre al año 21,271 soles/año
Costo semana 52 sem/año 409

Costo HR- Hm Soles 48 hr/sem 9
Cálculo de SETUP
Produccion Real Tiempo Neto de Tiempo de Setup

Producto
(unidades) Producción (hr) (hr)
Pilsen Callao 1,075,135 299 3

Cusqueña 359,573 100 4
Cristal 729,458 203 2
Recursos para todos los Setups 10
Setup recursos Unidad de medida Costo unitario Consumo total

Tiempo: hr-maq hr 14 10
Labor: hr-hm hr 9 30
Materia Prima Kg 2 138,535
Costo SETUP 69,397 soles/OT

QUINA TAPADORA
Materia prima (Kg)

Hrs- mq
Producto Prod. usadas
TC seg/uni Asignada
defectuoso Final
1 399,950 33,329 333,292 302

1 142,391 11,866 118,659 104
1 288,866 24,072 240,721 205
sem/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/año
soles/sem
soles/hora-hm
Setup Labor Materia Prima

(hr-hm) Setup (Kg)
10 66,658
12 23,732
7 48,144
30 138,535
Total (soles)
138
252
207,802
208,191
Costo de ordenamiento 1290.88 soles/orden
Costo de mantenimiento y almacenamiento 3%
Demanda 36,500,000 envases Xopt 934720.291

Precio 3.5 soles/envase Xopt 934720 envases/orden
Copt 100815.748 soles/año
Número de órdenes de compra 39.05 orden/año

Tiempo de ciclo 9.22 días/orden
Se considera un precio constante con el proveedor
No se considera rotura de stock
Se considera un consumo aproximado de 100 000 envases de cervezas al dia
Se considera 365 días al año
Se considera los costos del año 2020, ya que se aproximan mas a la realidad proyectada, de forma cualitativa
3.082%
ma cualitativa
Datos
Semanas 57 sem/año
Demanda anual 36,500,000.00 Envases/año
Demanda semanal (d) 640,350.88 Envases/sem
Producción semana (p) 659,561.40 Envases/sem
Csetup S/ 69,567.50 O/T
Cmanto 3%
Costo unitario de producción S/ 3.50 Envases
p>d
Acumulación diaria: p-d 19,210.53
Ẋo 3815068.50 und/O/T
Inventario máximo (Imax) 111,118.50

Cto S/ 6,316,230.70 S/-año
Cálculo del Tc, Tp y Td Se consideran 57 semanas al año
No 328.478156 O/T/año Se considera la suma del setup de la maquina llenadora y tap
T de ciclo (tc) 5.96 sem
T de Acumulación (tp) 5.78 sem
T de Agotamiento (td) 0.17 sem
up de la maquina llenadora y tapadora

Pilsen Callao Año Mes Ventas en Unidades Ventas (Millones de Unidades)

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Pilsen Callao Año Mes Ventas en Unidades Ventas (Millones de Unidades)

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PILSEN CALLAO

Enero 46.23 46,234,572

Unidades venidas (millones)

Enero 10.06 10,056,784

Ventas (millones) en el año 2019

PILSEN CALLAO CUSQUEÑA CRISTAL

Enero 21.97 21,974,736

sto Setiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

46,501,053 46,585,383 84,330

1,103,187 1,217,020,453,782 2.31% 2.309%

Año T Ventas At A´t

Año Mes X Ventas XY

X^2 Y^2 Y=b0+bX

Yt+p Error |et|

46,234,572 448,631 448,631

^(Yt - Yt)2 |et|/Yt et/Yt

201,269,774,161 0.96% 0.961%

13 Pronóstico p=1 50,440,407

13 Pronóstico p=1 50,321,249

13 Pronóstico p=1 50,640,563

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

Desfase rk R2 R El patrón es tendecia

Promedio Móvil Doble

Año T Ventas Mt M't

Año T Ventas At A´t

Año Mes X Ventas XY

X^2 Y^2 Y=b0+bX

Yt+p Error |et|

10,056,784 588,944 588,944

^(Yt - Yt)2 |et|/Yt et/Yt

346,855,035,136 5.53% 5.532%

13 Pronóstico p=1 14,637,285

13 Pronóstico p=1 14,397,066

13 Pronóstico p=1 14,298,066

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ ) (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )^2 (𝑌_𝑡−𝑌 ̅ )(𝑌_(𝑡−1)−𝑌 ̅ )

Desfase rk R2 R El patrón es tendecia

00 22,500,000 24,000,000 25,500,000 27,000,000

00 22,000,000 23,000,000 24,000,000 25,000,000 26,000,000 27,000,000 28,000,000

Año T Ventas Mt M't

Año T Ventas At A´t

Total 78 304,854,084 2,071,996,457

650 7,804,690,312,655,824 143

21,974,736 879,521 879,521 773,557,189,441

13 Pronóstico p=1 31,257,781

13 Pronóstico p=1 29,515,639

13 Pronóstico p=1 31,455,737

Promedio Móvil Atenuación

ECM 320,341,829,629 261,552,876,177 89,191,329,234

Promedio Móvil Atenuación

ECM 103,892,413,964 155,801,399,342 60,071,135,224

Promedio Móvil Atenuación

ECM 302,405,728,490 354,674,384,159 234,819,415,614

Yestimado Lsuperior Rango

Yestimado Lsuperior Rango

e coincide con el intervalo común

e coincide con el intervalo común