Tarea 11-José Antonio Zúñiga Flores

“Año del Bicentenario del Perú: 200 años de Independencia”
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE SAN AGUSTÍN DE AREQUIPA
FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA
Escuela Profesional de Economía
DOCENTE:
Wilver Rondón Arce
ALUMNO:
- Zúñiga Flores, José Antonio
AREQUIPA-PERÚ
2021
Un proyecto tiene los siguientes flujos de caja esperados:
Años 0 1 2 3 4
Flujos de caj -1,000 300 400 350 500
Rf 5%
RM 13%
β 1.25
rp= 15%
b. Año E(FC) α FC
0 -1,000 1 -1,000
1 300 0.9130 273.9130
2 400 0.8336 333.4594
3 350 0.7612 266.4050
4 500 0.6950 347.4848
c. VAN de flujos de caja ciertos: VAN = 79.33

VAN de flujos de caja inciertos VAN = 79.33
Precio unitario
Escenario 1 Escenario 2 Escenario 3
Inversión inicial 300 US$
Precio unitario 15 US$ 12 15 17
Cantidad de ventas 20 TM
Costo variable unitario 6 US$
Costo fijo total 70 US$
Tasa impositiva 30%
Tasa de descuento 12%
Vida util 5 años
Tasa de crecimiento 8% anual
EVALUACION DEL PROYECTO

Años
Rubros
0 (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 )
Ingreso por ventas 300 240 300 340
Costo variable total 120 120 120 120
Costo fijo total 70 70 70 70
Depreciación 60 60 60 60
Utilidad antes de impuestos 50 -10 50 90
Impuestos 15 -3 15 27
Utilidad neta 35 -7 35 63
Depreciación 60 60 60 60
Flujo de caja operativo 95 53 95 123
Inversión inicial -300
Flujo de caja total -300 95 53 95 123
VNA 42.45 -108.95 42.45 143.39
ANALISIS DE ESCENARIOS
Valor actual neto
Pesimista Esperado Optimista
Precio unitario -108.95 42.45 143.39
Cantidad de ventas -2.97 42.45 65.16
Costo variable unitario -8.01 42.45 92.92
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL VAN ($)
Cambios relativos en las variables críticas

Variable
-10% -8% -5% 0% 5%
Cantidad de ventas -3 6 20 42 65
Precio unitario -33 -18 5 42 80
Costo variable unitario 73 68 58 42 27
CAMBIOS PORCENTUALES DEL VAN

Variable
-10% -8% -5% 0% -5%
Cantidad de ventas -106.88% -85.58% -53.50% 0.00% 53.48%
Precio unitario -178.33% -142.66% -89.16% 0.00% 89.16%
Costo variable unitario 71.33% 59.46% 35.67% 0.00% -35.67%
PRECIO MÍNIMO ACEPTABLE
0=−300+[(𝑃∗20−6∗20−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
𝑃=14.1589
CANTIDAD DE VENTAS MÍNIMO ACEPTABLE
0=−300+[(15∗𝑄−6∗𝑄−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
𝑄=18..1309
COSTO VARIABLE MAXIMO ACEPTABLE
0=−300+[(15∗20−𝐶𝑉𝑢∗20−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
𝐶𝑉𝑢=6.8410
SIMULACION DE MONTECARLO para 150 Iteraciones
Precio : Distribución logN Y = Ln(X)

Media (µ) 15 2.70537
Desv. Estandar (σ)1.1 0.07324
Cantidad : Distribución normal
X
Media (µ) 20
Desv. Estandar (σ) 2
Cvu : Distribución Uniforme
Inferior 4.5
superior 7
Esc 1 Esc 2 Esc 3 Esc 4 Esc 5

Inversión 300 $
Precio 15 $/TM 14.57 12.87 15.68 16.62 15.26
Cantidad 20 TM 20.00 21.40 16.77 20.42 21.87
CVu 6 $/TM 5.76 6.09 5.59 6.98 6.33
Tasa impositi 30%
Tasa de desc 12% anual
FLUJO DE CAJA
0 1-5 Esc 1 Esc 2 Esc 3 Esc 4 Esc 5

Ingreso por ventas 300.00 291.25 275.45 263.10 339.25 333.80
Costo variable -120.00 -115.25 -130.25 -93.81 -142.55 -138.52
Costo fijo -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
Depreciación -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
UAI 50.00 46.00 15.20 39.29 66.69 65.28
Impuestos -15.00 -13.80 -4.56 -11.79 -20.01 -19.58
Utilidad neta 35.00 32.20 10.64 27.50 46.69 45.70
Depreciación 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
FC Operativo 95.00 92.20 70.64 87.50 106.69 105.70
Inversión -300.00
FC Total -300.00 95.00 92.20 70.64 87.50 106.69 105.70
VAN 42.45 32.3557 -45.3589 15.4244 84.5778 81.0078
μVAN = 60.25
σVAN = 80.55
P(VAN>0) 123%
Mín -128.36
Máx 261.46
Rango 389.82
Clases 8
Amplitud 49
Li Ls X f
1 -128.00 -79.00 -103.5 9
2 -79.00 -30.00 -54.5 9
3 -30.00 19.00 -5.5 23
4 19.00 68.00 43.5 39
5 68.00 117.00 92.5 36
6 117.00 166.00 141.5 17
7 166.00 215.00 190.5 13
8 215.00 264.00 239.5 4
150
Cantidad de ventas Costo variable unitario
Escenario 4 Escenario 5 Escenario 6 Escenario 7 Escenario 8 Escenario 9
18 20 21
7 6 5
Años
(1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 ) (1 a 5 )
270 300 315 300 300 300
108 120 126 140 120 100
70 70 70 70 70 70
60 60 60 60 60 60
32 50 59 30 50 70
10 15 18 9 15 21
22 35 41 21 35 49
60 60 60 60 60 60
82 95 101 81 95 109
82 95 101 81 95 109
-2.97 42.45 65.16 -8.01 42.45 92.92
iables críticas Cambios relativos en

Variable
8% 10% -10% -8%
79 88 Cantidad de ventas 18.000 18.400
103 118 Precio unitario 13.500 13.800
17 12 Costo variable unitario 5.400 5.520
iables críticas
-8% -10%
85.59% 106.98% 2
142.66% 178.33% 1
-59.43% -71.33% 3
1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]
Esc 6 Esc 7 Esc 8 Esc 9 Esc 10 Esc 11 Esc 12 Esc 13

16.00 15.48 15.27 15.14 14.69 16.72 14.79 14.96
17.00 19.89 19.83 16.05 22.32 21.81 21.61 15.49
4.63 5.45 6.55 5.95 6.23 6.64 5.37 5.11

272.09 307.86 302.68 243.02 327.85 364.57 319.68 231.65
-78.74 -108.30 -129.85 -95.46 -139.14 -144.73 -116.03 -79.22
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
63.35 69.56 42.83 17.56 58.72 89.84 73.65 22.44
-19.00 -20.87 -12.85 -5.27 -17.62 -26.95 -22.09 -6.73
44.34 48.69 29.98 12.29 41.10 62.89 51.55 15.71
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
104.34 108.69 89.98 72.29 101.10 122.89 111.55 75.71
104.34 108.69 89.98 72.29 101.10 122.89 111.55 75.71
76.1361 91.8117 24.3609 -39.4107 64.4514 142.9950 102.1291 -27.0982
Distribución del VAN

50
45
40
35
FRECUENCIA
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-101.5 -46.5 8.5 63.5 118.5 173.5 228.5 283.5
VAN
-5% 0% 5% 8% 10%
19.000 20.000 21.000 21.600 22.000
14.250 15.000 15.750 16.200 16.500
5.700 6.000 6.300 6.480 6.600
15.17 15.99 15.74 16.04 13.34 14.52 13.03 15.22
21.26 17.81 20.78 19.38 18.32 20.67 22.67 19.47
4.56 4.82 6.24 4.58 6.53 6.93 5.59 5.42

322.62 284.85 327.23 310.95 244.40 300.17 295.27 296.22
-97.06 -85.89 -129.70 -88.86 -119.66 -143.24 -126.71 -105.42
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
95.56 68.96 67.52 92.09 -5.26 26.93 38.56 60.80
-28.67 -20.69 -20.26 -27.63 1.58 -8.08 -11.57 -18.24
66.89 48.27 47.27 64.46 -3.68 18.85 26.99 42.56
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
126.89 108.27 107.27 124.46 56.32 78.85 86.99 102.56
126.89 108.27 107.27 124.46 56.32 78.85 86.99 102.56
157.4275 90.2937 86.6717 148.6673 -96.9821 -15.7693 13.5879 69.6965

16.82 16.59 14.60 13.61 13.72 14.84 15.09 15.89
17.11 20.59 21.38 21.20 20.86 19.07 19.82 22.75
5.91 6.53 6.39 5.73 4.90 6.39 5.80 5.58

287.84 341.50 312.15 288.49 286.16 283.02 299.15 361.49
-101.11 -134.50 -136.63 -121.52 -102.27 -121.85 -115.01 -126.82
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
56.73 77.01 45.52 36.97 53.90 31.17 54.14 104.67
-17.02 -23.10 -13.66 -11.09 -16.17 -9.35 -16.24 -31.40
39.71 53.91 31.86 25.88 37.73 21.82 37.90 73.27
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
99.71 113.91 91.86 85.88 97.73 81.82 97.90 133.27
99.71 113.91 91.86 85.88 97.73 81.82 97.90 133.27
59.4378 110.6091 31.1443 9.5715 52.2823 -5.0638 52.9024 180.4138

15.27 15.15 17.43 16.03 13.35 14.18 16.40 15.90
20.26 17.18 19.99 19.44 21.67 21.69 21.77 20.34
6.73 5.43 6.34 5.76 6.57 6.28 6.16 5.79

309.27 260.27 348.33 311.53 289.33 307.53 356.94 323.38
-136.42 -93.28 -126.67 -111.96 -142.37 -136.13 -134.19 -117.82
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
42.86 36.98 91.66 69.57 16.95 41.40 92.76 75.56
-12.86 -11.09 -27.50 -20.87 -5.09 -12.42 -27.83 -22.67
30.00 25.89 64.16 48.70 11.87 28.98 64.93 52.89
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
90.00 85.89 124.16 108.70 71.87 88.98 124.93 112.89
90.00 85.89 124.16 108.70 71.87 88.98 124.93 112.89
24.4344 9.6076 147.5765 91.8411 -40.9377 20.7567 150.3399 106.9606

15.88 16.16 13.69 14.80 15.68 15.66 15.11 15.26
22.14 22.22 22.74 21.12 18.42 18.35 19.97 22.97
5.23 4.90 5.32 4.57 6.38 6.01 5.60 5.50

351.62 358.93 311.18 312.67 288.81 287.30 301.77 350.53
-115.78 -108.94 -121.05 -96.62 -117.50 -110.26 -111.94 -126.47
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
105.84 119.99 60.13 86.05 41.31 47.03 59.83 94.06
-31.75 -36.00 -18.04 -25.82 -12.39 -14.11 -17.95 -28.22
74.09 84.00 42.09 60.24 28.92 32.92 41.88 65.84
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
134.09 144.00 102.09 120.24 88.92 92.92 101.88 125.84
134.09 144.00 102.09 120.24 88.92 92.92 101.88 125.84
183.3611 219.0735 68.0205 133.4211 20.5239 34.9624 67.2669 153.6407

13.94 13.26 15.32 15.71 15.55 15.89 13.74 13.05
18.49 20.02 18.83 22.36 20.38 24.40 19.01 16.81
4.81 4.72 6.35 4.62 4.58 6.08 4.95 6.37

257.86 265.42 288.44 351.34 316.83 387.71 261.15 219.30
-88.98 -94.43 -119.57 -103.23 -93.39 -148.42 -94.13 -107.00
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
38.89 40.99 38.87 118.11 93.44 109.29 37.02 -17.69
-11.67 -12.30 -11.66 -35.43 -28.03 -32.79 -11.11 5.31
27.22 28.69 27.21 82.68 65.41 76.50 25.91 -12.39
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
87.22 88.69 87.21 142.68 125.41 136.50 85.91 47.61
87.22 88.69 87.21 142.68 125.41 136.50 85.91 47.61
14.4078 19.7150 14.3641 214.3223 152.0700 192.0579 9.6996 -128.3612

15.48 14.91 15.44 15.65 16.48 16.70 15.57 16.79
18.82 17.75 14.50 19.30 20.60 21.50 17.86 21.19
5.19 6.24 6.35 6.64 4.84 4.79 5.91 5.59

291.36 264.76 223.88 302.04 339.50 359.04 278.10 355.78
-97.68 -110.84 -92.04 -128.11 -99.68 -102.95 -105.53 -118.53
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
63.68 23.91 1.83 43.93 109.82 126.09 42.57 107.25
-19.10 -7.17 -0.55 -13.18 -32.95 -37.83 -12.77 -32.18
44.58 16.74 1.28 30.75 76.87 88.26 29.80 75.08
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
104.58 76.74 61.28 90.75 136.87 148.26 89.80 135.08
104.58 76.74 61.28 90.75 136.87 148.26 89.80 135.08
76.9703 -23.3735 -79.0835 27.1372 193.3979 234.4536 23.7036 186.9169

14.57 15.90 14.66 14.29 16.41 13.70 14.13 15.39
19.87 19.52 23.08 18.22 20.47 16.45 14.63 20.57
6.26 5.37 5.94 6.56 6.55 6.67 5.57 6.09

289.48 310.25 338.38 260.43 335.91 225.33 206.70 316.53
-124.41 -104.89 -137.01 -119.53 -134.02 -109.76 -81.47 -125.36
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
35.07 75.36 71.37 10.90 71.89 -14.43 -4.77 61.18
-10.52 -22.61 -21.41 -3.27 -21.57 4.33 1.43 -18.35
24.55 52.75 49.96 7.63 50.32 -10.10 -3.34 42.82
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
84.55 112.75 109.96 67.63 110.32 49.90 56.66 102.82
84.55 112.75 109.96 67.63 110.32 49.90 56.66 102.82
4.7899 106.4460 96.3685 -56.2036 97.6928 -120.1180 -95.7502 70.6548

14.65 15.29 15.02 12.82 15.34 14.69 14.53 14.98
21.68 19.90 17.75 20.12 18.72 19.82 19.70 17.70
6.72 4.85 4.82 6.82 6.64 5.57 6.03 4.98

317.54 304.17 266.48 257.97 287.12 291.18 286.26 265.15
-145.73 -96.51 -85.47 -137.13 -124.28 -110.46 -118.77 -88.17
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
41.80 77.67 51.01 -9.16 32.84 50.72 37.49 46.98
-12.54 -23.30 -15.30 2.75 -9.85 -15.22 -11.25 -14.09
29.26 54.37 35.71 -6.41 22.99 35.50 26.24 32.89
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
89.26 114.37 95.71 53.59 82.99 95.50 86.24 92.89
89.26 114.37 95.71 53.59 82.99 95.50 86.24 92.89
21.7701 112.2622 45.0035 -106.8375 -0.8382 44.2644 10.8788 34.8394

13.74 16.03 16.00 15.31 13.76 14.34 13.77 15.62
15.89 20.23 22.42 20.76 24.99 19.05 17.29 18.86
5.99 6.50 6.19 6.80 5.96 6.45 6.94 5.05

218.29 324.18 358.72 317.87 343.77 273.16 238.08 294.60
-95.14 -131.43 -138.70 -141.07 -148.88 -122.86 -119.99 -95.27
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
-6.85 62.75 90.02 46.80 64.90 20.31 -11.90 69.33
2.06 -18.83 -27.01 -14.04 -19.47 -6.09 3.57 -20.80
-4.80 43.93 63.02 32.76 45.43 14.21 -8.33 48.53
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
55.20 103.93 123.02 92.76 105.43 74.21 51.67 108.53
55.20 103.93 123.02 92.76 105.43 74.21 51.67 108.53
-101.0063 74.6332 143.4421 34.3816 80.0410 -32.4763 -113.7517 91.2196

16.29 16.45 13.76 14.73 14.94 18.16 14.89 15.58
18.86 20.90 21.96 21.32 19.08 20.45 18.70 21.12
6.85 5.05 6.27 5.65 4.52 6.94 6.67 5.04

307.09 343.84 302.13 314.05 284.95 371.27 278.44 328.94
-129.14 -105.53 -137.68 -120.50 -86.15 -141.90 -124.66 -106.52
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
47.95 108.31 34.46 63.56 68.80 99.36 23.78 92.42
-14.39 -32.49 -10.34 -19.07 -20.64 -29.81 -7.13 -27.73
33.57 75.82 24.12 44.49 48.16 69.55 16.64 64.69
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
93.57 135.82 84.12 104.49 108.16 129.55 76.64 124.69
93.57 135.82 84.12 104.49 108.16 129.55 76.64 124.69
37.2813 189.5915 3.2294 76.6592 89.8887 167.0163 -23.7153 149.4914

15.64 15.08 14.18 14.56 13.93 13.43 17.10 14.06
17.28 17.78 20.91 23.10 20.49 22.71 21.60 22.29
4.84 4.96 5.07 4.64 5.35 4.97 5.80 4.68
270.21 268.06 296.38 336.43 285.41 304.94 369.50 313.50
-83.57 -88.19 -105.96 -107.12 -109.66 -112.82 -125.20 -104.23
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
56.65 49.88 60.43 99.31 45.75 62.12 114.30 79.27
-16.99 -14.96 -18.13 -29.79 -13.73 -18.64 -34.29 -23.78
39.65 34.91 42.30 69.52 32.03 43.49 80.01 55.49
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
99.65 94.91 102.30 129.52 92.03 103.49 140.01 115.49
99.65 94.91 102.30 129.52 92.03 103.49 140.01 115.49
59.2231 42.1397 68.7658 166.8830 31.7320 73.0416 204.6943 116.3022

14.73 15.19 15.30 15.84 15.24 14.62 16.05 15.33
21.31 19.20 18.62 15.63 17.05 22.88 15.07 23.94
6.91 5.45 5.18 6.11 5.66 5.94 5.91 5.66
313.90 291.72 284.97 247.57 259.86 334.41 241.86 367.04
-147.13 -104.74 -96.37 -95.49 -96.43 -135.98 -89.02 -135.55
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
36.77 56.98 58.60 22.09 33.43 68.42 22.85 101.49
-11.03 -17.10 -17.58 -6.63 -10.03 -20.53 -6.85 -30.45
25.74 39.89 41.02 15.46 23.40 47.90 15.99 71.04
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
85.74 99.89 101.02 75.46 83.40 107.90 75.99 131.04
85.74 99.89 101.02 75.46 83.40 107.90 75.99 131.04
9.0671 60.0756 64.1421 -27.9831 0.6354 88.9428 -26.0639 172.3875

14.91 14.81 16.09 14.14 15.23 15.39 16.36 15.76
20.20 22.40 19.65 21.46 17.71 20.46 17.36 19.36
4.78 5.34 5.25 6.05 5.44 6.70 6.49 5.35
301.02 331.71 316.11 303.55 269.68 314.86 284.02 305.00
-96.50 -119.58 -103.18 -129.86 -96.34 -137.14 -112.71 -103.56
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
74.53 82.13 82.94 43.69 43.34 47.72 41.30 71.44
-22.36 -24.64 -24.88 -13.11 -13.00 -14.32 -12.39 -21.43
52.17 57.49 58.06 30.58 30.34 33.40 28.91 50.01
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
112.17 117.49 118.06 90.58 90.34 93.40 88.91 110.01
112.17 117.49 118.06 90.58 90.34 93.40 88.91 110.01
104.3394 123.5322 125.5635 26.5231 25.6602 36.6937 20.5099 96.5641

15.34 15.20 14.67 14.18 14.92 14.95 13.71 14.22
18.89 18.84 22.33 18.84 20.91 15.76 17.83 20.81
5.81 6.28 6.53 6.94 5.81 6.81 6.31 5.21
289.72 286.23 327.50 267.18 311.93 235.68 244.41 295.84
-109.70 -118.21 -145.80 -130.71 -121.50 -107.43 -112.51 -108.52
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
50.01 38.02 51.70 6.48 60.43 -1.74 1.91 57.31
-15.00 -11.41 -15.51 -1.94 -18.13 0.52 -0.57 -17.19
35.01 26.61 36.19 4.53 42.30 -1.22 1.34 40.12
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
95.01 86.61 96.19 64.53 102.30 58.78 61.34 100.12
95.01 86.61 96.19 64.53 102.30 58.78 61.34 100.12
42.4865 12.2268 46.7424 -67.3730 68.7689 -88.1061 -78.9002 60.9058

14.97 14.69 15.16 15.59 14.35 14.54 17.37 14.79
22.63 17.48 17.55 18.29 20.09 19.33 21.43 19.66
5.56 6.89 4.99 4.57 4.95 6.23 5.21 5.67
338.72 256.83 266.18 285.13 288.29 281.07 372.09 290.84
-125.81 -120.48 -87.63 -83.62 -99.38 -120.37 -111.54 -111.57
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
82.92 6.35 48.55 71.50 58.92 30.71 130.55 49.27
-24.88 -1.90 -14.56 -21.45 -17.68 -9.21 -39.17 -14.78
58.04 4.44 33.98 50.05 41.24 21.49 91.39 34.49
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
118.04 64.44 93.98 110.05 101.24 81.49 151.39 94.49
118.04 64.44 93.98 110.05 101.24 81.49 151.39 94.49
125.5196 -67.6958 38.7942 96.7119 64.9566 -6.2338 245.7189 40.6042

14.79 14.12 18.15 15.73 13.83 16.15 14.06 16.73
22.54 22.13 20.51 21.11 21.45 23.26 22.36 20.34
4.85 6.46 5.14 5.24 5.10 5.69 5.42 5.38
333.41 312.59 372.30 332.18 296.58 375.56 314.46 340.41
-109.35 -143.05 -105.51 -110.70 -109.32 -132.34 -121.13 -109.50
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
94.07 39.54 136.79 91.48 57.26 113.22 63.33 100.91
-28.22 -11.86 -41.04 -27.44 -17.18 -33.97 -19.00 -30.27
65.85 27.68 95.75 64.04 40.08 79.26 44.33 70.64
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
125.85 87.68 155.75 124.04 100.08 139.26 104.33 130.64
125.85 87.68 155.75 124.04 100.08 139.26 104.33 130.64
153.6523 16.0646 261.4553 147.1221 60.7660 201.9895 76.0789 170.9259

14.19 16.24 16.64 15.36 14.31 14.56 15.03 13.73
20.25 17.36 19.50 20.81 22.29 18.54 20.03 18.70
4.62 5.27 6.89 5.10 4.85 4.53 5.42 6.59
287.35 281.94 324.37 319.48 318.91 269.99 300.98 256.88
-93.55 -91.53 -134.24 -106.10 -108.13 -84.03 -108.49 -123.30
-70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00 -70.00
-60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00 -60.00
63.80 60.41 60.13 83.38 80.78 55.96 62.49 3.57
-19.14 -18.12 -18.04 -25.01 -24.24 -16.79 -18.75 -1.07
44.66 42.29 42.09 58.37 56.55 39.18 43.74 2.50
60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00 60.00
104.66 102.29 102.09 118.37 116.55 99.18 103.74 62.50
104.66 102.29 102.09 118.37 116.55 99.18 103.74 62.50
77.2834 68.7311 68.0217 126.6797 120.1324 57.5039 73.9719 -74.6991

Esc 150
14.49
19.53
5.43
Esc 150
283.01
-106.07
-70.00
-60.00
46.95
-14.08
32.86
60.00
92.86
92.86
34.7476
Inversión inicial 50,000 US$
Precio unitario 20 US$
Cantidad de ventas (1) 5,000 unidades
Cantidad de ventas (2) 5,400 unidades
Costo variable unitario 8 US$
Costo fijo total 20,000 US$
Tasa impositiva 30%
Tasa de descuento 12%
Vida util 2 años
Tasa de crecimiento 8% anual
Rubros Años
0 1 2
Ingreso por ventas 100,000.00 108,000.00
Costo variable total 40,000.00 43,200.00
Costo fijo total 20,000.00 20,000.00
Depreciación 25,000.00 25,000.00
Utilidad antes de impuestos 15,000.00 19,800.00
Impuestos 4,500.00 5,940.00
Utilidad neta 10,500.00 13,860.00
Depreciación 25,000.00 25,000.00
Flujo de caja operativo 35,500.00 38,860.00
Inversión inicial -50,000.00
Flujo de caja total -50,000.00 35,500.00 38,860.00
VNA 12,675.38
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL VAN ($)

Variable
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Cantidad de ventas -9,422 -2,056 5,309 12,675 20,041
Precio unitario -24,154 -11,878 398 12,675 24,952
Costo variable unitario 27,408 22,497 17,586 12,675 7,764
Costo fijo total 19,774 17,408 15,041 12,675 10,309
CAMBIOS PORCENTUALES DEL VAN

Variable
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Cantidad de ventas -174.33% -116.22% -58.12% 0.00% 58.11%
Precio unitario -290.56% -193.71% -96.86% 0.00% 96.85%
Costo variable unitario 116.23% 77.49% 38.74% 0.00% -38.75%
Costo fijo total 56.00% 37.34% 18.66% 0.00% -18.67%
PRECIO MÍNIMO ACEPTABLE
0=−50,000+[(𝑃∗5,000−8∗5,000−20,000−25,000)(1−0.30)+25,000][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^2−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^2 )]

𝑃=18.31
iables críticas
20% 30%
27,407 34,773
37,228 49,505
2,853 -2,057
7,943 5,577
iables críticas
20% 30%
116.22% 174.33%
193.70% 290.56%
-77.49% -116.23%
-37.34% -56.00%
0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^2 )]
Demanda Probabilida Participacion en el Probabilida
global d mercado d
2,000 0.25 0.08 0.10
2,200 0.35 0.10 0.20
2,400 0.30 0.12 0.30
2,600 0.10 0.14 0.25
0.16 0.15
Tasa de crecimiento 5%
Probabilida Participacio Probabilida

Demanda Probabilida Numeros Probabilida
d n en el d
global d aleatorios d
acumulada mercado acumulada
2,000 0.25 0.25 00 - 24 0.08 0.10 0.10
2,200 0.35 0.60 25 - 59 0.10 0.20 0.30
2,400 0.30 0.90 60 - 89 0.12 0.30 0.60
2,600 0.10 1.00 90 - 99 0.14 0.25 0.85
0.16 0.15 1.00
NÚMEROS ALEATORIOS
1 23 15 7 9 97 83 26
2 5 54 43 31 89 16 12
3 14 87 61 57 25 96 62
4 38 97 31 35 81 44 1
5 97 31 57 4 11 32 87
6 11 74 9 24 75 48 25
7 43 36 97 95 55 50 0
8 93 80 93 73 16 3 0
9 49 54 72 62 67 49 28
10 36 76 61 2 26 17 88
Numeros aleatorios Valores Demanda

Prueba Participacio anual del
Demanda n en el Demanda Participacion en el
global global mercado proyecto
mercado
1 23 5 2000 0.08 160
2 14 38 2000 0.12 240
3 97 11 2600 0.1 260
4 43 93 2200 0.16 352
5 49 36 2200 0.12 264
6 15 54 2000 0.12 240
7 87 97 2400 0.16 384
8 31 74 2200 0.14 308
9 36 80 2200 0.14 308
10 54 76 2200 0.14 308
11 7 43 2000 0.12 240
12 61 31 2400 0.12 288
13 57 9 2200 0.08 176
14 97 93 2600 0.16 416
15 72 61 2400 0.14 336
16 9 31 2000 0.12 240
17 57 35 2200 0.12 264
18 4 24 2000 0.1 200
19 95 73 2600 0.14 364
20 62 2 2400 0.08 192
21 97 89 2600 0.16 416
22 25 81 2200 0.14 308
23 11 75 2000 0.14 280
24 55 16 2200 0.1 220
25 67 26 2400 0.1 240
26 83 16 2400 0.1 240
27 96 44 2600 0.12 312
28 32 48 2200 0.12 264
29 50 3 2200 0.08 176
30 49 17 2200 0.1 220
31 26 12 2200 0.1 220
32 62 1 2400 0.08 192
33 87 25 2400 0.1 240
34 0 0 2000 0.08 160
35 28 88 2200 0.16 352
36 93 88 2600 0.16 416
37 4 31 2000 0.12 240
38 26 23 2200 0.1 220
39 10 63 2000 0.14 280
40 37 65 2200 0.14 308
41 34 53 2200 0.12 264
42 25 11 2200 0.1 220
43 7 98 2000 0.16 320
44 9 68 2000 0.14 280
45 33 25 2200 0.1 220
46 42 50 2200 0.12 264
47 95 12 2600 0.1 260
48 44 54 2200 0.12 264
49 71 82 2400 0.14 336
50 17 49 2000 0.12 240
51 50 43 2200 0.12 264
52 50 51 2200 0.12 264
53 18 81 2000 0.14 280
54 59 78 2200 0.14 308
55 81 33 2400 0.12 288
56 1 10 2000 0.1 200
57 32 94 2200 0.16 352
58 99 44 2600 0.12 312
59 11 38 2000 0.12 240
60 8 37 2000 0.12 240
61 92 81 2600 0.14 364
62 60 99 2400 0.16 384
63 26 0 2200 0.08 176
64 18 70 2000 0.14 280
65 25 18 2200 0.1 220
66 24 44 2000 0.12 240
67 6 10 2000 0.1 200
68 27 68 2200 0.14 308
69 40 43 2200 0.12 264
70 0 45 2000 0.12 240
71 74 92 2400 0.16 384
72 20 19 2000 0.1 200
73 31 83 2200 0.14 308
74 53 40 2200 0.12 264
75 5 75 2000 0.14 280
76 33 22 2200 0.1 220
77 62 5 2400 0.08 192
78 42 72 2200 0.14 308
79 74 43 2400 0.12 288
80 17 53 2000 0.12 240
81 33 1 2200 0.08 176
82 26 42 2200 0.12 264
83 94 62 2600 0.14 364
84 86 17 2400 0.1 240
85 77 79 2400 0.14 336
86 93 64 2600 0.14 364
87 80 98 2400 0.16 384
88 82 71 2400 0.14 336
89 38 36 2200 0.12 264
90 91 59 2600 0.12 312
91 72 89 2400 0.16 384
92 78 92 2400 0.16 384
93 37 5 2200 0.08 176
94 23 87 2000 0.16 320
95 4 36 2000 0.12 240
96 10 48 2000 0.12 240
97 19 26 2000 0.1 200
98 12 59 2000 0.12 240
99 29 17 2200 0.1 220
100 95 23 2600 0.1 260
Total 27324
E (DP1) = 273.24
Año Demanda
1 273.2400
2 286.9020
3 301.2471
4 316.3095
5 332.1249
Numeros
aleatorios
00 - 09
10 - 29
30 - 59
60 - 84
85 - 99
93 34 42 50 1 92 24 74
88 53 50 43 10 81 44 92
4 25 95 50 32 60 6 20
31 11 12 51 94 99 10 19
26 7 44 18 99 26 27 31
23 98 54 81 44 0 68 83
10 9 71 59 11 18 40 53
63 68 82 78 38 70 43 40
37 33 17 81 8 25 0 5
65 25 49 33 37 18 45 75
33 33 93 72 10
22 1 64 89 48
62 26 80 78 19
5 42 98 92 26
42 94 82 37 12
72 62 71 5 59
74 86 38 23 29
43 17 36 87 17
17 77 91 4 95
53 79 59 36 23
EVALUACIÓN DE PROYECTOS DE INVERSIÓN
Para la implementación de un proyecto de inversión, cuyo horizonte de evaluación es de 5 años,
se requieren los siguientes activos, cuyos montos y vidas contables se presentan a continuación:
Para la implementación de un proyecto de inversión, cuyo horizonte de evaluación es de 5 años,
se requieren los siguientes activos, cuyos montos y vidas contables se presentan a continuación:
1. La demanda para el primer año de operación es de 5 000 TM.
2. La tasa de crecimiento de la demanda es del 10% anual.
3. El precio unitario de venta es de US$ 10 por TM.
4. El costo de ventas es variable e igual al 40% de las ventas.
5. Los gastos de ventas tienen un gasto fijo de US$ 20,000 y un gasto variable del 10% de las ventas.
6. Los gastos de administración son fijos y alcanzan la suma de US$ 50,000.
7. La inversión inicial en activos tangibles e intangibles es de US$ 240,000.
8. La vida útil de los activos tangibles e intangibles es de 8 años.
9. El capital de trabajo representa el 20% de las ventas.
10. El valor residual de los activos tangibles e intangibles al final de quinto año es de US$ 110,000.
11. El impuesto a la renta es del 30%.
12. Para la implementación del proyecto se va a recurrir a un préstamo bancario por el 40% de la inversión total, a
efectiva anual del 9% y un plazo de 4 años.
13. La tasa libre de riesgo es del 4% anual y la tasa de rentabilidad esperada del mercado es del 12% anual.
14. La beta desapalancada de una empresa de similar riesgo es de 1.25.
DATOS
Demanda primer año 5,000 TM
Tasa crec. de demanda 10.00% anual Materia prima y materiales
Precio unitario 10.00 $/TM Mano de obra directa
Gastos de ventas (F) 5,400 $ Mano de obra indirecta
Gastos de administración 2,000 $ Gastos indirectos
Inversión 45,000 US$
Valor residual (5º año) 30,000 $
Tasa impositiva 30%
Préstamo bancario 40% Inv. Total
Tasa efectiva préstamo 10% anual
Plazo del préstamo 4 años
Tasa libre de riesgo 5% anual
Tasa esperada mercado 13% anual
Beta desapalancada 1.50
Ciclo productivo 3.00 meses
Gastos de ventas (V) 0.10
INVERSIÓN FIJA TANGIBLE
Monto
Concepto Vida contable
(en US$)
Terreno 12000
Edificios 16000 20.00
Maquinaria 10000 5.00
Muebles y enseres 5000 10.00
INVERSION FIJA TANGIBLE 43000
INVERSIÓN FIJA INTANGIBLE
Concepto Valor total Vida contable

INVERSION FIJA INTANGIBLE 2,000.00 4.00
COSTOS FIJOS Y VARIABLES (primer año)
Costo
Fijo Variable Total
Costos directos 6,000.00 16,000.00 22,000.00
Materia prima y materiales 12,000.00 12,000.00
Mano de obra directa 6,000.00 4,000.00 10,000.00
Costos indirectos 8,200.00 3,600.00 11,800.00
Mano de obra indirecta 5,800.00 5,800.00
Gastos indirectos 2,400.00 3,600.00 6,000.00
Costos de producción 14,200.00 19,600.00 33,800.00
Gastos de ventas 5,400.00 5,400.00
Gastos de administración 2,000.00 2,000.00
Gastos de operación 2,000.00 5,400.00 7,400.00
Costo total 16,200.00 25,000.00 41,200.00
ANEXOS
DEPRECIACIÓN Y AMORTIZACIÓN
0 1 2 3
Edificios 800.0000 800.0000 800.0000
Maquinaria 2,000.0000 2,000.0000 2,000.0000
Muebles y enseres 500.0000 500.0000 500.0000
Depreciación 3,300.0000 3,300.0000 3,300.0000
Amortización 500.0000 500.0000 500.0000
Depreciación y amortización 3,800.0000 3,800.0000 3,800.0000
VALOR EN LIBROS DESPUÉS DE DEPRECIACIÓN Y AMORTIZACIÓN

0 1 2 3
Edificios 16,000.0000 15,200.0000 14,400.0000 13,600.0000
Maquinaria 10,000.0000 8,000.0000 6,000.0000 4,000.0000
Muebles y enseres 5,000.0000 4,500.0000 4,000.0000 3,500.0000
Sub-total activos tangibles 31,000.0000 27,700.0000 24,400.0000 21,100.0000
Terreno 12,000.0000 12,000.0000 12,000.0000 12,000.0000
Total activos tangibles 43,000.0000 39,700.0000 36,400.0000 33,100.0000
Activos intangibles 2,000.0000 1,500.0000 1,000.0000 500.0000
TOTAL ACTIVOS FIJOS 45,000.0000 41,200.0000 37,400.0000 33,600.0000
CUADRO DE SERVICIO DE LA DEUDA

0 1 2 3
Principal 18,000.00 14,121.53 9,855.20 5,162.25
Interés 1,800.00 1,412.15 985.52
Amortización 3,878.47 4,266.32 4,692.95
Pago 5,678.47 5,678.47 5,678.47
FLUJOS DE CAJA
0 1 2 3
Precio unitario 10.00 10.00 10.00
Cantidad vendida 5,000.00 5,500.00 6,050.00
Ingreso por ventas 50,000.00 55,000.00 60,500.00
Costo de Ventas 33,800.00 35,760.00 37,916.00
Utilidad Bruta 83,800.00 90,760.00 98,416.00
Gastos de ventas (10,400.00) (10,900.00) (11,450.00)
Gastos administrativos (2,000.00) (2,000.00) (2,000.00)
Depreciación (3,800.00) (3,800.00) (3,800.00)
UAI 67,600.00 74,060.00 81,166.00
Impuestos (30%) (20,280.00) (22,218.00) (24,349.80)
Utilidad Neta 47,320.00 51,842.00 56,816.20
Depreciación 3,800.00 3,800.00 3,800.00
FC OPERATIVO 51,120.00 55,642.00 60,616.20
Inversión (45,000.00)
Valor Residual
FC INVERSIONES (45,000.00) 0.00 0.00 0.00
FC LIBRE (FCL) (45,000.00) 51,120.00 55,642.00 60,616.20
Préstamo 18,000.00
Amortización (3,878.47) (4,266.32) (4,692.95)
Interés (1,800.00) (1,412.15) (985.52)
FC DEUDA 18,000.00 (5,678.47) (5,678.47) (5,678.47)
Ahorro de impuestos 540.00 423.65 295.66
FC ACCIONISTAS (FCA) (27,000.00) 45,981.53 50,387.17 55,233.38
FC CAPITAL (FCC) (45,000.00) 51,660.00 56,065.65 60,911.86
FC LIBRE AJUSTADO (FCLA) (45,000.00) 52,038.00 56,362.20 61,118.82
EVALUACIÓN
Tasa Libre de Riesgo (Rf) 5%

Rentabilidad del Mercado (Rm) 13%
Beta desapalancada (bu) 1.50
C. Capital sin deuda (Ku) 17.00%
0 1 2 3
VL = VA(FCLA , Ku) 201,458.23 183,668.13 158,529.51 124,360.72
TASAS DE DESCUENTO
0 1 2 3
Deuda (D) 18,000.00 14,121.53 9,855.20 5,162.25
Capital (E) 183,458.23 169,546.60 148,674.31 119,198.47
VA(V) 201,458.23 183,668.13 158,529.51 124,360.72
Proporción de Deuda (D/V) 0.0893 0.0769 0.0622 0.0415
Proporción de Capital (E/V) 0.9107 0.9231 0.9378 0.9585
Costo de Deuda (Kd) 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%
Kd(1-T) 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%
Beta de la deuda (bd) 0.6250 0.6250 0.6250
Beta apalancada (be) 1.5601 1.5510 1.5406
Costo Capital con deuda (Ke) 17.48% 17.41% 17.32%
WACC 16.54% 16.61% 16.68%
WACCAT 16.81% 16.84% 16.87%
INDICADORES DE EVALUACION
0 1 2 3
VL = VA(FCL , WACC) 201,458.23 183,668.13 158,529.51 124,360.72
VL = VA(FCC , WACCAT) 201,458.23 183,668.13 158,529.51 124,360.72
E = VA(FCA , Ke) 183,458.23 169,546.60 148,674.31 119,198.47
Año 0
VANL = VAN(FCLA , Ku) 156,458.23
VANL = VAN(FCL , WACC) 156,458.23
VANL = VAN(FCC , WACCAT) 156,458.23
VANL = VAN(FCA , Ke) 156,458.23
FLUJOS DE CAJA VAN TIR B/C

ECONÓMICO 154,693.19 120.11% 4.438
FINANCIERO 156,458.23 179.28% 6.795
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
A) UNIDIMENSIONAL
Sensibilidad del VAN(E), TIR(E) y VAN(F) respecto a la

demanda
DEMANDA VAN(E) TIR(E)
5,000.00 154,693.19 120.11%
3,500.00 118,860.35 97.98%
4,000.00 130,804.63 105.41%
4,500.00 142,748.91 112.79%
5,000.00 154,693.19 120.11%
5,500.00 166,637.46 127.41%
6,000.00 178,581.74 134.66%
6,500.00 190,526.02 141.89%
Sensibilidad del VAN(E), TIR(E) y VAN(F) respecto a la tasa de

crecimiento de la demanda
TASA VAN(E) TIR(E)
10.00% 154,693.19 120.11%
7.00% 146,145.27 117.72%
8.00% 148,944.19 118.52%
9.00% 151,793.27 119.32%
10.00% 154,693.19 120.11%
11.00% 157,644.62 120.91%
12.00% 160,648.27 121.71%
13.00% 163,704.83 122.51%
Sensibilidad del VAN(E), TIR(E) y VAN(F) respecto al precio

PRECIO VAN(E) TIR(E)
10.00 154,693.19 120.11%
7.00 118,860.35 97.98%
8.00 130,804.63 105.41%
9.00 142,748.91 112.79%
10.00 154,693.19 120.11%
11.00 166,637.46 127.41%
12.00 178,581.74 134.66%
13.00 190,526.02 141.89%
Sensibilidad del VAN(E), TIR(E) y VAN(F) respecto al costo de

ventas
COSTO VAN(E) TIR(E)
- 33,800.00 154,693.19 120.11%
23,660.00 Err:504 Err:504
27,040.00 Err:504 Err:504
30,420.00 Err:504 Err:504
33,800.00 Err:504 Err:504
37,180.00 Err:504 Err:504
40,560.00 Err:504 Err:504
43,940.00 Err:504 Err:504
B) BIDIMENSIONAL
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL VAN(E) RESPECTO A LA D
VAN(E) DEMANDA
154,693.19 4,000.00 4,500.00
8.00 111,693.78 121,249.20
PRECIO
9.00 121,249.20 131,999.05

10.00 130,804.63 142,748.91
11.00 140,360.05 153,498.76
12.00 149,915.47 164,248.61
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL TIR(E) RESPECTO A LA DEMAN
TIR(E) DEMANDA
120.11% 4,000.00 4,500.00
27,040.00 Err:504 Err:504
COSTO DE
VENTAS
30,420.00 Err:504 Err:504

33,800.00 Err:504 Err:504
37,180.00 Err:504 Err:504
VENTAS
COSTO D
40,560.00 Err:504 Err:504
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL VAN(E) RESPECTO AL PRECI
VAN(E) PRECIO
154,693.19 8.00 9.00
27,040.00 Err:504 Err:504
COSTO DE
VENTAS
30,420.00 Err:504 Err:504
33,800.00 Err:504 Err:504
37,180.00 Err:504 Err:504
40,560.00 Err:504 Err:504
PUNTO DE EQUILIBRIO (PUNTO MUERTO)
ANÁLISIS: VAN>0
VARIABLE
ECONÓMICO FINANCIERO
VENTAS MIN 217.00 144.00
PRECIO MIN 0.43 0.29
COSTO MAX - 224,758.61 - 227,708.76
VERSIÓN
años,
ación:
años,
ación:
e las ventas.
110,000.
0% de la inversión total, a una tasa de interés
es del 12% anual.
V
prima y materiales 12000
e obra directa 10000 0.4
e obra indirecta 5800
6000 0.6
33800
4 5
800.0000 800.0000
2,000.0000 2,000.0000
500.0000 500.0000
3,300.0000 3,300.0000
500.0000 0.0000
3,800.0000 3,300.0000
4 5
12,800.0000 12,000.0000
2,000.0000 0.0000
3,000.0000 2,500.0000
17,800.0000 14,500.0000
12,000.0000 12,000.0000
29,800.0000 26,500.0000
0.0000 0.0000
29,800.0000 26,500.0000
4
0.00
516.22
5,162.25
5,678.47
4 5
10.00 10.00
6,655.00 7,320.50
66,550.00 73,205.00
40,287.60 42,396.36
106,837.60 115,601.36
(12,055.00) (12,720.50)
(2,000.00) (2,000.00)
(3,800.00) (3,300.00)
88,982.60 97,580.86
(26,694.78) (29,274.26)
62,287.82 68,306.60
3,800.00 3,300.00
66,087.82 71,606.60
21,000.00
0.00 21,000.00
66,087.82 92,606.60
(5,162.25)
(516.22)
(5,678.47) 0.00
154.87
60,564.21 92,606.60
66,242.69 92,606.60
66,351.09 92,606.60
4 5
79,150.94 21,000.00
4 5
0.00 0.00
79,150.94 21,000.00
79,150.94 21,000.00
0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 1.0000
10.00% 10.00%
7.00% 7.00%
0.6250 0.6250
1.5265 1.5000
17.21% 17.00%
16.79% 17.00%
16.91% 17.00%
4 5
79,150.94 21,000.00
79,150.94 21,000.00
79,150.94 21,000.00
Variación porcentual 10%
y VAN(F) respecto a la VARIACIÓN DEL VAN(E) (en US$) ANTE VARIACIONES DE

LAS VARIABLES INCIERTAS
VAN(F) VARIACIÓN
DEMANDA TASA PRECIO
156458.23 PORCENTUAL
120,625.39 -30% 118,860.35 146,145.27 118,860.35
132,569.67 -20% 130,804.63 148,944.19 130,804.63
144,513.95 -10% 142,748.91 151,793.27 142,748.91
156,458.23 0% 154,693.19 154,693.19 154,693.19
168,402.51 10% 166,637.46 157,644.62 166,637.46
180,346.79 20% 178,581.74 160,648.27 178,581.74
192,291.07 30% 190,526.02 163,704.83 190,526.02
N(F) respecto a la tasa de VARIACIÓN DEL VAN(E) (en %) ANTE VARIACIONES DE

emanda LAS VARIABLES INCIERTAS
VAN(F) VARIACIÓN
DEMANDA TASA PRECIO
156,458.23 PORCENTUAL
147,910.31 -30% -23.16% -5.53% -23.16%
150,709.24 -20% -15.44% -3.72% -15.44%
153,558.32 -10% -7.72% -1.87% -7.72%
156,458.23 0% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
159,409.67 10% 7.72% 1.91% 7.72%
162,413.31 20% 15.44% 3.85% 15.44%
165,469.87 30% 23.16% 5.83% 23.16%
AN(F) respecto al precio

Análisis de Sensiblidad
30%
onómico
VAN(F) Análisis de Sensiblidad
156458.23 30%
Variación porcentual del VAN económico

120,625.39
132,569.67
20%
144,513.95
156,458.23
168,402.51 10%
180,346.79 Demanda
Tasa
192,291.07 0%
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Precio
Costo
-10%
N(F) respecto al costo de
VAN(F) -20%
156,458.23
150,391.56 -30%
152,413.79 Variación porcentual de las variables riesgosas
154,436.01
156,458.23
158,480.45
160,502.67
162,524.90
VAN(E) RESPECTO A LA DEMANDA Y EL PRECIO
DEMANDA
5,000.00 5,500.00 6,000.00
130,804.63 140,360.05 149,915.47
142,748.91 153,498.76 164,248.61
154,693.19 166,637.46 178,581.74
166,637.46 179,776.17 192,914.88
178,581.74 192,914.88 207,248.01
E) RESPECTO A LA DEMANDA Y EL COSTO DE VENTAS
DEMANDA
5,000.00 5,500.00 6,000.00
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
N(E) RESPECTO AL PRECIO Y EL COSTO DE VENTAS
PRECIO
10.00 11.00 12.00
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
Err:504 Err:504 Err:504
TE VARIACIONES DE
RTAS
COSTO
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
E VARIACIONES DE
RTAS
COSTO
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Err:504
Demanda
Tasa
30% 40% Precio
Costo
Resumen del escenario
Valores actuales: Pesimista Esperado Optimista
Celdas cambiantes:
Demanda $B$22 5,000 4,500 5,000 5,300
Tasa de creci$B$23 10.00% 9.00% 10.00% 10.50%
Precio $B$24 10.00 9.50 10.00 10.50
Costo de ven$G$28 33800 34000 33800 33000
Celdas de resultado:
$B$182 114,248.74 94,322.53 114,248.74 129,330.66
$C$182 74.11% 64.75% 74.11% 81.21%
$B$183 116,013.79 96,087.58 116,013.79 131,095.71
Notas: La columna de valores actuales representa los valores de las celdas cambiantes
en el momento en que se creó el Informe resumen de escenario. Las celdas cambiantes de
cada escenario se muestran en gris.

Tarea 11-José Antonio Zúñiga Flores

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“Año del Bicentenario del Perú: 200 años de Independencia”

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE SAN AGUSTÍN DE AREQUIPA

Escuela Profesional de Economía

c. VAN de flujos de caja ciertos: VAN = 79.33

EVALUACION DEL PROYECTO

VNA 42.45 -108.95 42.45 143.39

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL VAN ($)

Cambios relativos en las variables críticas

Cambios relativos en las variables críticas

PRECIO MÍNIMO ACEPTABLE

0=−300+[(𝑃∗20−6∗20−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]

0=−300+[(15∗𝑄−6∗𝑄−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]

COSTO VARIABLE MAXIMO ACEPTABLE

0=−300+[(15∗20−𝐶𝑉𝑢∗20−70−60)(1−0.30)+60][( 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5−1)/(0.12 〖 (1+0.12) 〗 ^5 )]

SIMULACION DE MONTECARLO para 150 Iteraciones

Precio : Distribución logN Y = Ln(X)

Esc 1 Esc 2 Esc 3 Esc 4 Esc 5

0 1-5 Esc 1 Esc 2 Esc 3 Esc 4 Esc 5

VAN 42.45 32.3557 -45.3589 15.4244 84.5778 81.0078

-2.97 42.45 65.16 -8.01 42.45 92.92

iables críticas Cambios relativos en

Esc 6 Esc 7 Esc 8 Esc 9 Esc 10 Esc 11 Esc 12 Esc 13

Esc 6 Esc 7 Esc 8 Esc 9 Esc 10 Esc 11 Esc 12 Esc 13

104.34 108.69 89.98 72.29 101.10 122.89 111.55 75.71

76.1361 91.8117 24.3609 -39.4107 64.4514 142.9950 102.1291 -27.0982

Distribución del VAN

Esc 14 Esc 15 Esc 16 Esc 17 Esc 18 Esc 19 Esc 20 Esc 21

126.89 108.27 107.27 124.46 56.32 78.85 86.99 102.56

157.4275 90.2937 86.6717 148.6673 -96.9821 -15.7693 13.5879 69.6965

Esc 22 Esc 23 Esc 24 Esc 25 Esc 26 Esc 27 Esc 28 Esc 29

99.71 113.91 91.86 85.88 97.73 81.82 97.90 133.27

59.4378 110.6091 31.1443 9.5715 52.2823 -5.0638 52.9024 180.4138

Esc 30 Esc 31 Esc 32 Esc 33 Esc 34 Esc 35 Esc 36 Esc 37

90.00 85.89 124.16 108.70 71.87 88.98 124.93 112.89

24.4344 9.6076 147.5765 91.8411 -40.9377 20.7567 150.3399 106.9606

Esc 38 Esc 39 Esc 40 Esc 41 Esc 42 Esc 43 Esc 44 Esc 45

134.09 144.00 102.09 120.24 88.92 92.92 101.88 125.84

183.3611 219.0735 68.0205 133.4211 20.5239 34.9624 67.2669 153.6407

Esc 46 Esc 47 Esc 48 Esc 49 Esc 50 Esc 51 Esc 52 Esc 53

87.22 88.69 87.21 142.68 125.41 136.50 85.91 47.61

14.4078 19.7150 14.3641 214.3223 152.0700 192.0579 9.6996 -128.3612

Esc 54 Esc 55 Esc 56 Esc 57 Esc 58 Esc 59 Esc 60 Esc 61

104.58 76.74 61.28 90.75 136.87 148.26 89.80 135.08

76.9703 -23.3735 -79.0835 27.1372 193.3979 234.4536 23.7036 186.9169

Esc 62 Esc 63 Esc 64 Esc 65 Esc 66 Esc 67 Esc 68 Esc 69

84.55 112.75 109.96 67.63 110.32 49.90 56.66 102.82

4.7899 106.4460 96.3685 -56.2036 97.6928 -120.1180 -95.7502 70.6548

Esc 70 Esc 71 Esc 72 Esc 73 Esc 74 Esc 75 Esc 76 Esc 77

89.26 114.37 95.71 53.59 82.99 95.50 86.24 92.89

21.7701 112.2622 45.0035 -106.8375 -0.8382 44.2644 10.8788 34.8394

Esc 78 Esc 79 Esc 80 Esc 81 Esc 82 Esc 83 Esc 84 Esc 85

55.20 103.93 123.02 92.76 105.43 74.21 51.67 108.53

-101.0063 74.6332 143.4421 34.3816 80.0410 -32.4763 -113.7517 91.2196

Esc 86 Esc 87 Esc 88 Esc 89 Esc 90 Esc 91 Esc 92 Esc 93

93.57 135.82 84.12 104.49 108.16 129.55 76.64 124.69

37.2813 189.5915 3.2294 76.6592 89.8887 167.0163 -23.7153 149.4914

99.65 94.91 102.30 129.52 92.03 103.49 140.01 115.49

59.2231 42.1397 68.7658 166.8830 31.7320 73.0416 204.6943 116.3022

85.74 99.89 101.02 75.46 83.40 107.90 75.99 131.04

9.0671 60.0756 64.1421 -27.9831 0.6354 88.9428 -26.0639 172.3875

112.17 117.49 118.06 90.58 90.34 93.40 88.91 110.01

104.3394 123.5322 125.5635 26.5231 25.6602 36.6937 20.5099 96.5641

95.01 86.61 96.19 64.53 102.30 58.78 61.34 100.12

42.4865 12.2268 46.7424 -67.3730 68.7689 -88.1061 -78.9002 60.9058