3)

METODO EXTRAPOLACION

Año Consumo(TM) Población(habs) Renta(NS)

0 2012 19100 10500 38500
1 2013 20090 10680 40700
2 2014 21100 10850 45050
3 2015 22200 11100 48300
4 2016 23100 11500 51080
5 2017 24000 11720 55560
6 2018 25200 12000 59200

CALCULO PARA PROYECTAR LA DEMANDA

AÑO BASE 2017

TASA DEMOGRAFICA= TASA POBLACIONAL 2,5%

TASA DEL INGRESO 7,5%

CALCULO DE r:

r
𝐶𝑛=𝐶𝑜 〖 (1+𝑟) 〗 ^𝑛
Cn consumo en el año n
Co= consumo inicial
r= tasa de crecimiento del consumo
n= periodo del año

𝐿𝑜𝑔𝐶𝑛=𝑙𝑜𝑔𝐶𝑜+𝑛𝑙𝑜𝑔(1+𝑟)

Log(Cn) LogCo N
4.40140054078 4.281033367248 6

logCn-logCo 0.120367173534
logCn-logCo/6 0.020061195589
Antilog 1.04727610729

r 0.04727610729
r 4.727610728956 %

CONSUMO AÑO BASE

TASA DE
AÑO CONSUMO C2017 CONSUMO 1+r
 2016 23100 24100 0.04727610729 1.04727611
2017 24000
2018 25200

N
AÑO DEMANDA
1 2021 7 33300.09033922
2 2022 8 34874.38898285
3 2023 9 36523.11433806
4 2024 10 38249.78501006
5 2025 11 40058.08594999
6 2026 12 41951.87631918
7 2027 13 43935.19772504
8 2028 14 46012.28284648
9 2029 15 48187.56446697
10 2030 16 50465.68493473
11 2031 17 52851.50607015
12 2032 18 55350.11954154
13 2033 19 57966.85773147
14 2034 20 60707.30511682
15 2035 21 63577.31018679
16 2036 22 66582.99792436
17 2037 23 69730.78287789
18 2038 24 73027.38285061
19 2039 25 76479.83323733
20 2040 26 80095.50203895
21 2041 27 83882.10558676
22 2042 28 87847.72501015
23 2043 29 92000.82348287
24 2044 30 96350.26428458
25 2045 31 100905.3297163

EXTRAPOLACION DEL CONSUMO PER CAPITA

Tasa 〖 1+ 𝑟 〗 _𝑛
AÑO POBLACION N2017 Poblacional
2016 11500 11740 0.025 1.025
2017 11720
2018 12000

C (N) (Cpc)
CONSUMO
AÑO CONSUMO POBLACION PER CAPITA
2021 7 33300.09033922 13955.1707481 2.38621877
2022 8 34874.38898285 14304.0500168 2.43807795
2023 9 36523.11433806 14661.6512672 2.49106418
2024 10 38249.78501006 15028.1925489 2.54520195
2025 11 40058.08594999 15403.8973626 2.60051629
 2026 12 41951.87631918 15788.9947967 2.65703275
2027 13 43935.19772504 16183.7196666 2.71477748
2028 14 46012.28284648 16588.3126582 2.77377716
2029 15 48187.56446697 17003.0204747 2.83405907
2030 16 50465.68493473 17428.0959866 2.89565108
2031 17 52851.50607015 17863.7983862 2.95858165
2032 18 55350.11954154 18310.3933459 3.02287987
2033 19 57966.85773147 18768.1531795 3.08857548
2034 20 60707.30511682 19237.357009 3.15569884
2035 21 63577.31018679 19718.2909342 3.22428097
2036 22 66582.99792436 20211.2482076 3.29435358
2037 23 69730.78287789 20716.5294128 3.36594907
2038 24 73027.38285061 21234.4426481 3.43910052
2039 25 76479.83323733 21765.3037143 3.51384177
2040 26 80095.50203895 22309.4363072 3.59020734
2041 27 83882.10558676 22867.1722148 3.66823256
2042 28 87847.72501015 23438.8515202 3.74795348
2043 29 92000.82348287 24024.8228082 3.82940695
2044 30 96350.26428458 24625.4433784 3.91263064
2045 31 100905.3297163 25241.0794629 3.99766301

PROYECCION DE INGRES0 E INGRESO PERCAPITA

TASA DEL 〖 1+ 𝑅 〗 _𝑅
AÑO INGRESO I2011 INGRESO
2016 51080 55280 0.075 1.075
2017 55560
2018 59200

(N) (Rpc)
RENTA PER
AÑO RENTA POBLACION CAPITA
2021 7 91712.23646237 13955.1707481 6.5719179
2022 8 98590.65419705 14304.0500168 6.89249926
2023 9 105984.9532618 14661.6512672 7.22871874
2024 10 113933.8247565 15028.1925489 7.58133917
2025 11 122478.8616132 15403.8973626 7.95116059
2026 12 131664.77623419 15788.9947967 8.33902208
2027 13 141539.6344518 16183.7196666 8.74580365
2028 14 152155.1070356 16588.3126582 9.17242821
2029 15 163566.7400633 17003.0204747 9.61986374
2030 16 175834.2455681 17428.0959866 10.0891254
2031 17 189021.8139857 17863.7983862 10.5812778
2032 18 203198.4500346 18310.3933459 11.0974377
2033 19 218438.3337872 18768.1531795 11.6387762
2034 20 234821.2088212 19237.357009 12.2065213
 2035 21 252432.7994828 19718.2909342 12.8019614
2036 22 271365.25944402 20211.2482076 13.4264473
2037 23 291717.6539023 20716.5294128 14.081396
2038 24 313596.477945 21234.4426481 14.7682933
2039 25 337116.21379087 21765.3037143 15.4886979
2040 26 362399.9298252 22309.4363072 16.2442441
2041 27 389579.9245621 22867.1722148 17.0366463
2042 28 418798.41890423 23438.8515202 17.8677022
2043 29 450208.300322 24024.8228082 18.7392974
2044 30 483973.9228462 24625.4433784 19.6534095
2045 31 520271.9670597 25241.0794629 20.6121124

PROD.
AÑO Cpc Poblacion DEMANDA NACIONAL
2021 2.38621876725 13955.17074806 33300.0903392 26000
2022 2.43807795289 14304.05001677 34874.3889828 26000
2023 2.49106418319 14661.65126719 36523.1143381 26000
2024 2.54520195198 15028.19254887 38249.7850101 26000
2025 2.6005162854 15403.89736259 40058.08595 26000
2026 2.65703275348 15788.99479665 41951.8763192 26000
2027 2.71477748195 16183.71966657 43935.197725 29000
2028 2.77377716435 16588.312658232 46012.2828465 29000
2029 2.83405907431 17003.02047469 48187.564467 29000
2030 2.89565107822 17428.095986555 50465.6849347 29000
2031 2.95858164806 17863.79838622 52851.5060701 29000
2032 3.02287987462 18310.39334587 55350.1195415 29000
2033 3.08857548087 18768.15317952 57966.8577315 29000
2034 3.15569883578 19237.35700901 60707.3051168 29000
2035 3.22428096831 19718.29093423 63577.3101868 29000
2036 3.29435358175 20211.24820759 66582.9979244 29000
2037 3.36594906842 20716.52941278 69730.7828779 29000
2038 3.4391005246 21234.4426481 73027.3828506 29000
2039 3.51384176583 21765.3037143 76479.8332373 29000
2040 3.59020734259 22309.43630716 80095.502039 29000
2041 3.6682325562 22867.17221484 83882.1055868 29000
2042 3.74795347521 23438.85152021 87847.7250101 29000
2043 3.82940695202 24024.82280821 92000.8234829 29000
2044 3.91263063994 24625.44337842 96350.2642846 29000
2045 3.9976630106 25241.07946288 100905.329716 29000
METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

DEMANDA
AÑO X CONSUMO(Y) XY 𝑋^2
2012 -3 19100 -57300 9
2013 -2 20090 -40180 4
2014 -1 21100 -21100 1
2015 0 22200 0 0
2016 1 23100 23100 1
2017 2 24000 48000 4
2018 3 25200 75600 9
SUMATORIA 0 154790 28120 28

n 7
a 22112.85714
b 1004.285714

𝑎=(∑▒𝑦)/𝑛 𝑏=(∑▒𝑥𝑦)/(∑▒𝑥^2 )

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA
Y = A + Bx
AÑO X DEMANDA
2021 10 32155.71428
2022 11 33159.999994
2023 12 34164.285708
2024 13 35168.571422
2025 14 36172.857136
2026 15 37177.14285
2027 16 38181.428564
2028 17 39185.714278
2029 18 40189.999992
2030 19 41194.285706
2031 20 42198.57142
2032 21 43202.857134
2033 22 44207.142848
2034 23 45211.428562
2035 24 46215.714276
2036 25 47219.99999
2037 26 48224.285704
2038 27 49228.571418
2039 28 50232.857132
2040 29 51237.142846
2041 30 52241.42856
2042 31 53245.714274
 2043 32 54249.999988
2044 33 55254.285702
2045 34 56258.571416

METODO DE LA TASA MEDIA

100
Año Consumo(TM) Var. Porcent.
2012 19100 0 0
2013 20090 105.1832460733 5.1832460733
2014 21100 105.02737680438 5.02737680438
2015 22200 105.21327014218 5.21327014218
2016 23100 104.0540540541 4.05405405405
2017 24000 103.8961038961 3.8961038961
2018 25200 105 5
r 4.05343585286 %
0.04053435853
1+r 1.04053435853

Co = 25200

año demanda- tm
2021 26221.46583492
2022 27284.33613222
2023 28390.28919522
2024 29541.07135619
2025 30738.49973386
2026 31984.4651027
2027 33280.934878518
2028 34629.95622505
2029 36033.65928651
2030 37494.26055112
2031 39014.06635107
2032 40595.4765042
2033 42240.98810346
2034 43953.19945985
2035 45734.81420523
2036 47588.64556147
2037 49517.620782544
2038 51524.78577683
2039 53613.30991661
2040 55786.49104268
2041 58047.76067165
2042 60400.6894145
2043 62848.9926146
2044 65396.5362144
 2045 68047.34285985

4)
Año Cacao seco Importaciones Exportaciones Población
2008 618908 0 27124 15023880
2009 681292 12 319 15484656
2010 608523 2179 39910 15939742
2011 449475 5 17573 16393726
2012 407841 3286 16 16851195
2013 471722 0 44 17316738
2014 321527 0 4383 17791411
2015 373247 14230 1128 18272157
2016 382266 97021 0 18757389
2017 313155 19036 2 19245521
RAYKIER JOHNSON MAMANI CARPIO 2016 -111054
〖 1+ 𝑟 〗 _𝑛
 % A SUSTITUIR DE LA PRODUCCION NACIONAL 30%
DEMANDA PROYECTADA= DEMANDA-(30%*PRODU
DEMANDA PROYECTADA ES IGUAL A DEMANDA -(% A SUSTITUIR * PRODUCC

DEMANDA
PROYECTADA
25500.0903392
27074.3889828
28723.1143381
30449.7850101
32258.08595
34151.8763192
35235.197725
37312.2828465
39487.564467
41765.6849347
44151.5060701
46650.1195415
49266.8577315
52007.3051168
54877.3101868
57882.9979244
61030.7828779
64327.3828506
67779.8332373
71395.502039
75182.1055868
79147.7250101
83300.8234829
87650.2642846
92205.3297163
 CONSUMO(Y)
30000

25000
f(x) = 1004.28571428571 x + 22112.8571428571
R² = 0.998994353217514
20000

15000

10000

5000

0
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Diferencia (X-I) DIA Consumo Percapita
27124 618908 0.0411949509713869
307 681292 0.0439978776409369
37731 608523 0.0381764648386404
17568 449475 0.0274175010610767
-3270 407841 0.0242024972116221
44 471722 0.0272408117510353
4383 321527 0.0180720348712084
-13102 373247 0.0204270902444632
-97021 382266 0.0203794888510336
-19034 313155 0.0162715782025335
EMANDA-(30%*PRODUCCION NACIONAL)
SUSTITUIR * PRODUCCION NACIONAL)