AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO Simple Moving Average

𝑌_𝑡
1 120 120 forecast s.e.
2 100 100
3 110 110
4 90 90
5 95 95 100
6 105 105 98.3333333
1
7 111 111 96.6666667 7.75791114
8 130 130 103.666667 6.69161997
9 110 110 115.333333 10.6196882
10 125 125 117 10.2938313
11 120 120 121.666667 9.57813869
12 100 100 118.333333 4.57853284
2 1 > 115 8.92354356

MAE MSE MAPE

10.7083333 174.958333 0.09469049

Simple Moving Average

120 forecast s.e.

100
110
90
95
105 98.75
111 100
130 100.25
110 110.25 11.6692705
125 114 11.6900064
120 119 11.8070424
100 121.25 10.5312036
> 113.75 7.78821225

MAE MSE MAPE

11.5 231.25 0.09979645
alpha 0.05

lower upper Forecast

140
120
100
80 actual

value
81.4614402 111.871893 60 forecast
90.5513325 116.782001 40
94.5191269 136.14754 20
96.8244614 137.175539
0
102.89386 140.439474 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
109.359574 127.307093 time
97.510176 132.489824

alpha 0.05
Forecast
lower upper
140
120
100
80 actual
value

60 forecast
40
20
87.37865 133.12135
0
91.0880084 136.911992 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
95.8586222 142.141378
time
100.60922 141.89078
98.4853845 129.014616
 actual
forecast

0 11

actual
forecast

0 11
PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO PREDICCIÓN ERROR ERROR ABSOLUTO
𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_
1 120
2 100
3 110
4 90 106.6475962064 16.6475962063992 16.6475962063992
5 95 95.000000131162 1.31161712602079E-07 1.3116171260208E-07
6 105 94.375233979486 -10.6247660205139 10.6247660205139
7 111 96.589448973233 -14.4105510267671 14.4105510267671
8 130 103.27401823658 -26.7259817634207 26.7259817634207
9 110 116.52340881421 6.52340881420663 6.52340881420663
10 125 112.62154760696 -12.3784523930456 12.3784523930456
11 120 118.91995843331 -1.08004156668783 1.08004156668783
12 100 116.16349742416 16.1634974241548 16.1634974241548
1 107.85586844162

Error Promedio ME -287.61%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 1161.71%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 10.56%
 ERROR MEDIO
〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂

PREDICCION
140
0.184973291182213 t Pesos de ponderacion 120
1.38064960633768E-09 1 0.505621025223652
100
0.101188247814418 2 0.261363937545069
0.129824784024929 3 0.207440747310755 80
0.205584475103236 suma 0.974425710079475 60
0.059303716492788
40
0.099027619144365
0.009000346389065 20
0.161634974241548 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
PREDICCION

6 8 10 12 14
AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO Exponential Smoothing
𝑌_𝑡
1 120 alpha 0.26283427
2 100
3 110 120 forecast s.e.
4 90 100 100
5 95 110 100
6 105 90 102.628343 10
1
7 111 95 99.3091815 11.3902379
8 130 105 98.1765809 9.62711593
9 110 111 99.9700093 9.00837293
10 125 130 102.869069 9.44736817
11 120 110 110.000007 14.0377542
12 100 125 110.000005 12.996435
2 1 120 113.942518 13.2634417
100 115.534632 12.6668605
> 111.451598 12.9821761

MAE MSE MAPE

10.8513981 168.536897 0.09754629
 sig level 0.05

lower upper Forecast

140
120
83.0287028 122.227983
100
76.9847254 121.633638
80 actual
79.3077804 117.045381
value 60 forecast
82.3139228 117.626096
84.3525674 121.38557 40
82.4865146 137.5135 20
84.5274608 135.47255 0
87.9466498 139.938386 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
90.7080415 140.361222 time
86.0070006 136.896196
actual
forecast
AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO PREDICCIÓN ERROR
𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)
1 120 104.355 -15.645
2 100 105.32 5.32000000000001
3 110 106.285 -3.715
4 90 107.25 17.25
5 95 108.215 13.215
6 105 109.18 4.18000000000001
1
7 111 110.145 -0.855000000000004
8 130 111.11 -18.89
9 110 112.075 2.075
10 125 113.04 -11.96
11 120 114.005 -5.995
12 100 114.97 14.97
13 115.935
14 116.9
15 117.865
16 118.83
17 119.795
18 120.76
2
19 121.725
20 122.69
21 123.655
22 124.62
23 125.585
24 126.55

Error Promedio ME -0.42%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 950.58%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 8.79%
 ERROR ABSOLUTO ERROR MEDIO
𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂
𝑒= 〖
15.645 0.130375
5.32000000000001 0.0532
PREDICCION
3.715 0.033772727272727 140
17.25 0.191666666666667 120
13.215 0.139105263157895 f(x) = 0.965034965034964 x + 103.393939393939
100 R² = 0.079523183822547
4.18000000000001 0.039809523809524
0.855000000000004 0.007702702702703 80
18.89 0.145307692307692 60
2.075 0.018863636363636
40
11.96 0.09568
5.995 0.049958333333333 20
14.97 0.1497 0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
CION

03.393939393939

20 25 30
AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO Holt's Linear Trend
𝑌_𝑡
1 120 120 u v
2 100 100 100 0
3 110 110 102.12999 0.40868311
4 90 90 99.8679484 -0.10375127
5 95 95 98.7494281 -0.29845596
6 105 105 99.8459083 -0.03080825
1
7 111 111 102.197472 0.42629972
8 130 130 108.45488 1.54511991
9 110 110 110 1.5451199
10 125 125 114.410996 2.09499811
11 120 120 117.250213 2.23779225
12 100 100 115.337081 1.44135037
13 >
14 >
15 >
16 >
17 >
18 >
2
19 >
20 >
21 >
22 >
23 >
24 >

alpha beta MAE

0.21299897 0.19187093 10.8849918
 sig level 0.05

forecast s.e. lower upper

Forecast
100 140
102.538673 10 82.939033 122.138313 120
99.7641971 11.3405978 77.5370339 121.99136 100
98.4509721 9.65946669 79.5187653 117.383179 80
99.8151 8.98339658 82.2079663 117.422234

value
60
102.623772 9.46475191 84.0731991 121.174345
40
110 14.1266032 82.3123668 137.687634
20
111.54512 13.0786932 85.9113525 137.178888
0
116.505994 13.1263061 90.7789065 142.233081
1 3 5 7 9 11
119.488006 12.4302828 95.1250991 143.850912
116.778431 13.3055994 90.6999354 142.856927 time
118.219781 13.7276687 91.3140451 145.125518
119.661132 14.2768379 91.6790437 147.64322
121.102482 14.9588768 91.7836223 150.421342
122.543832 15.775296 91.6248204 153.462844
123.985183 16.7240962 91.2065566 156.763809
125.426533 17.8007211 90.537761 160.315305
126.867884 18.9990048 89.6305184 164.105249
128.309234 20.3119748 88.4984948 168.119973
129.750584 21.732452 87.1557612 172.345407
131.191935 23.2534517 85.6160069 176.767862
132.633285 24.8684207 83.8920761 181.374494

MSE MAPE
177.038975 0.09857359
ecast

actual
forecast
AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO Holt-Winter Multiplicative
𝑌_𝑡
1 120 120 u v
2 100 100
3 110 110
4 90 90
5 95 95 98.75 3.8125
6 105 105 102.5625 3.8125
1
7 111 111 106.375 3.8125
8 130 130 110.1875 3.8125
9 110 110 114 3.8125
10 125 125 117.8125 3.8125
11 120 120 121.625 3.8125
12 100 100 125.4375 3.8125
13 >
14 >
15 >
16 >
17 >
18 >
2
19 >
20 >
21 >
22 >
23 >
24 >

alpha beta gamma

0 0 0
α+γ 0
 s forecast
1.01265823 Forecast
1.11392405 200
0.91139241 180
0.96202532 160
140
1.01265823 103.860759
120
1.11392405 118.493671 100 actual

value
0.91139241 100.424051 80 forecast
0.96202532 109.670886 60
40
1.01265823 119.303797 20
1.11392405 135.481013 0
0.91139241 114.322785 1 3 5 7 9 11
0.96202532 124.341772
time
1.01265823 134.746835
1.11392405 152.468354
0.91139241 128.221519
0.96202532 139.012658
1.01265823 150.189873
1.11392405 169.455696
0.91139241 142.120253
0.96202532 153.683544
1.01265823 165.632911
1.11392405 186.443038
0.91139241 156.018987

MAE MSE MAPE

10.5768535 201.364101 0.08952366
actual
forecast
AÑO PERIODOS HORAS DE TRABAJO AR(1) ARMA(1,1) ARIMA(1,1,1)
𝑌_𝑡
1 120 120
2 100 100
3 110 110
4 90 90
5 95 95
6 105 105
1
7 111 111
8 130 130
9 110 110
10 125 125
11 120 120
12 100 100 100 100
13 106.39630057829 108.291231 108.56806787
14 107.81014181541 106.638097 104.50309042
15 108.12265793614 107.624765 106.33413499
16 108.19173664396 107.035875 105.41342219
17 108.20700583347 107.387352 105.7769937
18 108.21038094218 107.177574 105.54117145
2
19 108.21112697777 107.30278 105.5850948
20 108.21129188182 107.228051 105.4984569
21 108.21132833229 107.272653 105.47275379
22 108.21133638932 107.246032 105.41861154
23 108.21133817025 107.261921 105.37774225
24 108.2113385639 107.252438 105.33067828

PREDICCION
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
ARIMA Model Model statistics

time data residual index phi theta

1 11.7886613 0 1 0.22104046 0
2 -8.21133868 -10.8171098 const 84.2922543 108.211339
3 1.78866132 3.60369942
4 -18.2113387 -18.6067052 SSE 1481.34012
5 -13.2113387 -9.18589595
6 -3.21133868 -0.29109827 p 1
7 2.78866132 3.49849711 q 0
8 21.7886613 21.1722543 d 0
9 1.78866132 -3.02751445 res mean 6.28023E-10
10 16.7886613 16.3932948 res s.d. 12.1710317
11 11.7886613 8.07768786 sqrt mse 12.8293938
12 -8.21133868 -10.8171098 data mean 0.51593405
data s.d. 12.4827153
size 11

LL -42.5737633
AIC 57.9308788
BIC 58.7266694
AIC aug 89.1475266
BIC aug 89.9433171

ARIMA Model Model statistics

time data residual index phi theta

1 12.7440179 0 1 -0.59684715 3.50974571
2 -7.25598213 0.35024857 const 171.271409 107.255982
3 2.74401787 -2.81597778
4 -17.2559821 -5.73485698 SSE 155.247107
5 -12.2559821 -2.42727615
6 -2.25598213 -1.05180806 p 1
7 3.74401787 6.08912018 q 1
8 22.7440179 3.60736081 d 0
9 2.74401787 3.65780089 res mean 0.69516452
10 17.7440179 6.54382611 res s.d. 3.87209654
11 12.7440179 0.36731868 sqrt mse 3.75677699
12 -7.25598213 -0.93894659 data mean 1.4712906
data s.d. 12.4827153
size 11
 LL -30.1674993
AIC 37.118351
BIC 38.709932
AIC aug 68.3349987
BIC aug 69.9265798

ARIMA Model Model statistics

time data residual index phi theta

1 -19.9549072 0 1 -0.46671423 0.03135675
2 10.0450928 0.73185366 const -0.06613825 -0.0450928
3 -19.9549072 -15.289668
4 5.0450928 -3.78871205 SSE 1653.43203
5 10.0450928 12.5185111
6 6.0450928 10.3407407 p 1
7 19.0450928 21.5421716 q 1
8 -19.9549072 -11.7417839 d 1
9 15.0450928 6.10003784 res mean -0.00375195
10 -4.9549072 1.87557434 res s.d. 13.5541379
11 -19.9549072 -22.3262448 sqrt mse 12.8585848
data mean 0.0450928
data s.d. 15.1730756
size 10

LL -39.729502
AIC 59.0802333
BIC 60.2905737
AIC aug 87.459004
BIC aug 88.6693444
Phi roots Model parameters

real imag abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? 2.34337351
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? 0.68327
Theta roots

real imag abs val

Psi coefficients

index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
7 #NAME?
8 #NAME?
9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?

Phi roots Model parameters

real imag abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? 4.92911106
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Theta roots theta 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

real imag abs val

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Psi coefficients

index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
 5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
7 #NAME?
8 #NAME?
9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?

Phi roots Model parameters

real imag abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? -0.01249919
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
Theta roots theta 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

real imag abs val

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Psi coefficients

index psi
0 #NAME?
1 #NAME?
2 #NAME?
3 #NAME?
4 #NAME?
5 #NAME?
6 #NAME?
7 #NAME?
8 #NAME?
9 #NAME?
10 #NAME?
11 #NAME?
 Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
p-value time data residual pred s.e. lower
0.04377771 1 11.7886613 0 11.7886613 12.8293938 -13.3564885
0.51164074 2 -8.21133868 -10.8171098 2.60577115 12.8293938 -22.5393787
3 1.78866132 3.60369942 -1.8150381 12.8293938 -26.960188
4 -18.2113387 -18.6067052 0.39536653 12.8293938 -24.7497833
5 -13.2113387 -9.18589595 -4.02544272 12.8293938 -29.1705926
6 -3.21133868 -0.29109827 -2.92024041 12.8293938 -28.0653903
7 2.78866132 3.49849711 -0.70983579 12.8293938 -25.8549856
8 21.7886613 21.1722543 0.61640699 12.8293938 -24.5287429
9 1.78866132 -3.02751445 4.81617577 12.8293938 -20.3289741
10 16.7886613 16.3932948 0.39536653 12.8293938 -24.7497833
11 11.7886613 8.07768786 3.71097346 12.8293938 -21.4341764
12 -8.21133868 -10.8171098 2.60577115 12.8293938 -22.5393787
13 -1.8150381 12.8293938 -26.960188
14 -0.40119686 13.1390713 -26.1533033
15 -0.08868074 13.154015 -25.8700763
16 -0.01960203 13.1547447 -25.8024278
17 -0.00433284 13.1547803 -25.7872285
18 -0.00095773 13.154782 -25.7838568
19 -0.0002117 13.1547821 -25.7831109
20 -4.6794E-05 13.1547821 -25.782946
21 -1.0343E-05 13.1547821 -25.7829096
22 -2.2863E-06 13.1547821 -25.7829015
23 -5.0536E-07 13.1547821 -25.7828997
24 -1.1171E-07 13.1547821 -25.7828993
Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
p-value time data residual pred s.e. lower
0.00115073 1 12.7440179 0 12.7440179 3.75677699 5.38087027
#NAME? 2 -7.25598213 0.35024857 -7.6062307 3.75677699 -14.9693783
#NAME? 3 2.74401787 -2.81597778 5.55999565 3.75677699 -1.80315196
4 -17.2559821 -5.73485698 -11.5211251 3.75677699 -18.8842728
5 -12.2559821 -2.42727615 -9.82870598 3.75677699 -17.1918536
6 -2.25598213 -1.05180806 -1.20417407 3.75677699 -8.56732168
7 3.74401787 6.08912018 -2.34510231 3.75677699 -9.70824992
8 22.7440179 3.60736081 19.1366571 3.75677699 11.7735095
9 2.74401787 3.65780089 -0.91378302 3.75677699 -8.27693063
10 17.7440179 6.54382611 11.2001918 3.75677699 3.83704415
11 12.7440179 0.36731868 12.3766992 3.75677699 5.01355158
12 -7.25598213 -0.93894659 -6.31703554 3.75677699 -13.6801831
13 1.03524845 3.75677699 -6.32789915
14 -0.61788508 11.5700059 -23.2946799
15 0.36878295 13.2862242 -25.671738
 16 -0.22010705 13.8462963 -27.3583491
17 0.13137027 14.040413 -27.3873336
18 -0.07840797 14.1089174 -27.731378
19 0.04679757 14.1332403 -27.6538444
20 -0.027931 14.1418947 -27.7455352
21 0.01667054 14.1449763 -27.7069735
22 -0.00994976 14.1460739 -27.7357451
23 0.00593849 14.1464648 -27.7206231
24 -0.00354437 14.1466041 -27.7303789
Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
p-value time data residual pred s.e. lower
0.99037612 1 -19.9549072 0 -19.9549072 12.8585848 -45.1572703
#NAME? 2 10.0450928 0.73185366 9.31323914 12.8585848 -15.889124
#NAME? 3 -19.9549072 -15.289668 -4.6652392 12.8585848 -29.8676023
4 5.0450928 -3.78871205 8.83380485 12.8585848 -16.3685582
5 10.0450928 12.5185111 -2.47341829 12.8585848 -27.6757814
6 6.0450928 10.3407407 -4.29564793 12.8585848 -29.498011
7 19.0450928 21.5421716 -2.49707881 12.8585848 -27.6994419
8 -19.9549072 -11.7417839 -8.21312333 12.8585848 -33.4154864
9 15.0450928 6.10003784 8.94505496 12.8585848 -16.2573081
10 -4.9549072 1.87557434 -6.83048154 12.8585848 -32.0328446
11 -19.9549072 -22.3262448 2.37133761 12.8585848 -22.8310255
12 8.61316067 12.8585848 -16.5892024
13 -4.01988465 14.0243258 -31.5070582
14 1.87613737 14.2656208 -26.0839657
15 -0.87562001 14.3176409 -28.9376804
16 0.40866432 14.3289469 -27.6755556
17 -0.19072945 14.3314085 -28.2797739
18 0.08901615 14.3319446 -28.0010791
19 -0.0415451 14.3320614 -28.1318692
20 0.01938969 14.3320868 -28.0709843
21 -0.00904944 14.3320923 -28.0994343
22 0.0042235 14.3320935 -28.0861637
23 -0.00197117 14.3320938 -28.0923589
 Forecast

upper time forecast

36.9338112 1 120
27.750921 2 100
23.3301118 3 110
25.5405164 4 90
21.1197071 5 95
22.2249095 6 105
24.4353141 7 111
25.7615568 8 130
29.9613256 9 110
25.5405164 10 125
28.8561233 11 120
27.750921 12 100
23.3301118 13 106.396301
25.3509096 14 107.810142
25.6927148 15 108.122658
25.7632237 16 108.191737
25.7785628 17 108.207006
25.7819413 18 108.210381
25.7826875 19 108.211127
25.7828524 20 108.211292
25.7828889 21 108.211328
25.7828969 22 108.211336
25.7828987 23 108.211338
25.7828991 24 108.211339
Forecast

upper time forecast

20.1071655 1 120
-0.2430831 2 100
12.9231432 3 110
-4.15797755 4 90
-2.46555838 5 95
6.15897353 6 105
5.01804529 7 111
26.4998047 8 130
6.44936458 9 110
18.5633394 10 125
19.7398468 11 120
1.04611207 12 100
8.39839605 13 108.291231
22.0589098 14 106.638097
26.4093039 15 107.624765
 26.918135 16 107.035875
27.6500741 17 107.387352
27.5745621 18 107.177574
27.7474396 19 107.30278
27.6896732 20 107.228051
27.7403146 21 107.272653
27.7158456 22 107.246032
27.7325001 23 107.261921
27.7232902 24 107.252438
Forecast

upper time forecast

5.24745589 1 120
34.5156022 2 100
20.5371239 3 110
34.0361679 4 90
22.7289448 5 95
20.9067152 6 105
22.7052843 7 111
16.9892398 8 130
34.1474181 9 110
18.3718816 10 125
27.5737007 11 120
33.8155238 12 100
23.4672889 13 108.568068
29.8362404 14 104.50309
27.1864404 15 106.334135
28.4928843 16 105.413422
27.898315 17 105.776994
28.1791114 18 105.541171
28.048779 19 105.585095
28.1097636 20 105.498457
28.0813354 21 105.472754
28.0946107 22 105.418612
28.0884165 23 105.377742
24 105.330678
 Técnicas predicción ERROR

Promedio Movil (3) 9.469%

Promedio Movil (4) 9.980%
Promedio ponderado 10.562%
Suavizacion exponencial 9.755%
Regresion Lineal 8.793%
Modelo Holt 9.857%
Holt Multiplicativo 8.952%