CONDICION DE

1 OPERACIÓN
(TBF)
CONDICION

TIEMPO NO
0
OPERATIVO (DT) CONDI
1.2

TIEMPO 1
ACUMULADO CONDICION
0.8
0 1

CONDICIÓN
43 1 0.6
43 0 0.4
81 0
81 1 0.2

126 1 0
0 100 200 300
126 0
138 0
138 1
157 1
157 0
185 0
185 1
234 1
234 0
276 0
276 1
304 1
304 0
327 0
327 1
339 1
339 0
379 0
379 1
409 1
409 0
427 0
427 1
454 1
454 0
470 0
470 1
510 1
510 0
535 0
535 1
583 1
583 0
593 0
593 1
 CONDICIÓN EQUIPO

200 300 400 500 600 700

TIEMPO ACUMULADO
0 700
TIEMPO
ACUMULADO CONDICION ITEM TBF TTR
0 1 1 43 38
43 1 2 45 12
43 0 3 19 28
81 0 4 49 42
81 1 5 28 23
126 1 6 12 40
126 0 7 30 18
138 0 8 27 16
138 1 9 27 16
157 1 10 40 25
157 0 11 40 25
185 0 12 48 10
185 1
234 1
234 0
276 0
276 1
304 1
304 0
327 0
327 1
339 1
339 0
379 0
379 1
409 1
409 0
427 0
427 1
454 1
454 0
470 0
470 1
510 1
510 0
535 0
535 1
583 1
583 0
593 0
593 1
 F(t) X Y Reliability
ITEM TBF TTR
Mediana ln(t) ln (ln(1/(1-F(t))) R(t)
1 12 40 6.73% 2.48490665 -2.663843085388 94.22%
2 19 28 16.35% 2.94443898 -1.723263150277 83.67%
3 27 16 25.96% 3.29583687 -1.202023115247 66.21%
4 28 23 35.58% 3.33220451 -0.821666515129 63.78%
5 30 18 45.19% 3.40119738 -0.508595393734 58.85%
6 40 25 54.81% 3.68887945 -0.230365444733 34.87%
7 43 38 64.42% 3.76120012 0.0329249619143 28.59%
8 45 12 74.04% 3.80666249 0.299032931862 24.77%
9 48 10 83.65% 3.87120101 0.5939772166604 19.64%
10 49 42 93.27% 3.8918203 0.9926889294903 18.09%

CONFIABILIDAD MANT
100.00% 90.00%
90.00% 80.00%
80.00% 70.00%
70.00%
60.00%
60.00%
50.00%
50.00%
40.00%
40.00%
30.00%
30.00%
20.00% 20.00%

10.00% 10.00%
0.00% 0.00%
12 17 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 12 17 22 27
 DISPONIBILIDAD INTRINSECA
Mantenibilidad Etha Beta MTBF MTTR
AI
5.78% 39.13556248 2.38650042 34.1 25.2 0.5750
16.33%
33.79%
36.22%
41.15%
65.13%
71.41%
75.23%
80.36%
81.91%

MANTENIBILIDAD 1.5

90.00%
1
80.00%
0.5
70.00% f(x) = 2.38650042299
60.00% 0
R² = 0.957250613474
2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3
50.00%
-0.5
40.00%
30.00% -1

20.00%
-1.5
10.00%
0.00% -2
12 17 22 27 32 37 42 47 52
-2.5

-3
 DISPONIBILIDAD INHERENTE
AG
57.50%

f(x) = 2.38650042299291 x − 8.75137241669216

R² = 0.957250613474533
2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4
 Simple Moving Average TBF alpha
ITEM TBF TTR

1 43 38 43 forecast s.e. lower

2 45 12 45
3 19 28 19
4 49 42 49
5 28 23 28 37.6666667
6 12 40 12 32
7 30 18 30 29.6666667 12.336336 5.48789246
8 27 16 27 23.3333333 11.1438407 1.49180694
9 27 16 27 23 11.1438407 1.15847361
10 40 25 40 28 4.52564708 19.1298947
11 40 25 40 31.3333333 5.54109228 20.472992
12 48 10 48 35.6666667 5.62402255 24.643785
13 > 42.6666667 6.38574802 30.1508305

MAE MSE MAPE

8.83333333 111.777778 0.3850722

Simple Moving Average TTR alpha

38 forecast s.e. lower

12
28
42
23 27.3333333
40 31
18 35 10.0682854 15.2665233
16 27 7.52772653 12.2459271
16 24.6666667 7.76983722 9.43806556
25 16.6666667 7.22393142 2.50802125
25 19 6.09796566 7.04820693
10 22 3.8920622 14.3716983
> 20 6.95221787 6.37390336

MAE MSE MAPE

9.54166667 104.291667 0.54504378
 0.05

Forecast TBF
upper
60

50

40
actual
30
value

forecast
53.8454409 20
45.1748597
10
44.8415264
36.8701053 0
42.1936746 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
46.6895483 time
55.1825028

0.05

upper Forecast TTR

45
40
35
30
25 actual
value

54.7334767 20 forecast
41.7540729 15
39.8952678 10
5
30.8253121
0
30.9517931 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
29.6283017
time
33.6260966
ITEM TBF PREDICCIÓN ERROR ERROR ABSOLUTO
𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_
1 43
2 45
3 19
4 49 29.933864285104 -19.0661357148962 19.0661357148962
5 28 43.727513066879 15.7275130668789 15.7275130668789
6 12 21.576726838972 9.57672683897231 9.57672683897231
7 30 29.999997473853 -2.52614737661361E-06 2.5261473766136E-06
8 27 26.999999887197 -1.12803132168438E-07 1.1280313216844E-07
9 27 17.595243325993 -9.40475667400692 9.40475667400692
10 40 26.738096989554 -13.2619030104458 13.2619030104458
11 40 30.751326115915 -9.24867388408488 9.24867388408488
12 48 30.751328242405 -17.2486717575953 17.2486717575953
13 40.761908780755

Error Promedio ME -476.95%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 1039.27%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 33.55%
 ERROR MEDIO
〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂

PREDICCION TBF
60
0.389104810508085 t Pesos de ponderacion 50
0.561696895245675 1 0.425926011698142
0.798060569914359 2 1.63576120459803E-07 40
8.42049125537869E-08 3 0.50793634190497
30
4.1778937840162E-09 suma 0.933862517179232
0.348324321259515 20
0.331547575261145
10
0.231216847102122
0.359347328283236 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
PREDICCION TBF

6 8 10 12 14
ITEM TTR PREDICCIÓN ERROR ERROR ABSOLUTO
𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_
1 38
2 12
3 28
4 42 16.238793531941 -25.7612064680587 25.7612064680587
5 23 18.316773861834 -4.68322613816618 4.68322613816618
6 40 18.562934435798 -21.437065564202 21.437065564202
7 18 22.111563122001 4.11156312200077 4.11156312200077
8 16 16.000002501305 2.50130501910917E-06 2.5013050191092E-06
9 16 14.470561671689 -1.52943832831087 1.52943832831087
10 25 10.27735022187 -14.7226497781297 14.7226497781297
11 25 12.326161593612 -12.6738384063877 12.6738384063877
12 10 13.945678312429 3.945678312429 3.945678312429
13 11.518362698553

Error Promedio ME -808.34%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 987.39%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 35.19%
 ERROR MEDIO
〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂

PREDICCION TRR
45
0.613362058763302 t Pesos de ponderacion 40
0.203618527746355 1 0.266366100351515 35
0.53592663910505 2 0.17994630209074 30
0.228420173444487 3 0.174241765710789 25
1.56331563694323E-07 suma 0.620554168153044 20
0.09558989551943 15
0.588905991125189 10
0.506953536255506 5
0.3945678312429 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
PREDICCION TRR

6 8 10 12 14
 Exponential Smoothing TBF
ITEM TBF TTR

1 43 38 alpha 0.44973824
2 45 12
3 19 28 43 forecast s.e. lower
4 49 42 45 45
5 28 23 19 45
6 12 40 49 33.3068059 26 -17.6522577
7 30 18 28 40.3646353 21.474128 -1.72388207
8 27 16 12 34.803786 18.931108 -2.30050381
9 27 16 30 24.5480515 19.9698098 -14.5920564
10 40 25 27 27.0000012 18.0271847 -8.33263162
11 40 25 27 27.0000007 16.4564929 -5.2541327
12 48 10 40 27.0000004 15.2357519 -2.8615246
13 40 32.8465973 14.974549 3.49702057
48 36.063756 14.3180853 8.00082441
> 41.4319413 14.0980212 13.8003274

MAE MSE MAPE

11.4403212 198.754203 0.49648384

Exponential Smoothing TTR

alpha 1

38 forecast s.e. lower

12 12
28 12
42 28 16 -3.35942375
23 42 15.0332964 12.5352805
40 23 16.4620776 -9.26507927
18 40 16.5981927 7.46814015
16 18 17.8101095 -16.9071732
16 16 16.2788206 -15.9059021
25 16 15.0712593 -13.5391254
25 25 14.4525084 -3.32639601
10 25 13.6259556 -1.70638228
> 10 13.7695316 -16.987786

MAE MSE MAPE

11.4 189.6 0.53630711
sig level 0.05

Forecast TBF
upper 60

50

40
84.2658695
actual
82.4531527 30
value forecast
71.9080759 20
63.6881594
10
62.3326341
59.254134 0
56.8615253 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
62.196174 time
64.1266876
69.0635552

sig level 0.05

Forecast TTR
upper
45
40
35
59.3594238 30
71.4647195 25 actual
value

55.2650793 20 forecast
72.5318598 15
52.9071732 10
47.9059021 5
0
45.5391254
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
53.326396
time
51.7063823
36.987786
actual
forecast

actual
forecast
ITEM TBF PREDICCIÓN ERROR ERROR ABSOLUTO
𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_
1 43 32.8078 -10.1922 10.1922
2 45 33.0246 -11.9754 11.9754
3 19 33.2414 14.2414 14.2414
4 49 33.4582 -15.5418 15.5418
5 28 33.675 5.675 5.675
6 12 33.8918 21.8918 21.8918
7 30 34.1086 4.1086 4.1086
8 27 34.3254 7.3254 7.3254
9 27 34.5422 7.5422 7.5422
10 40 34.759 -5.241 5.241
11 40 34.9758 -5.0242 5.0242
12 48 35.1926 -12.8074 12.8074
13 35.4094

Error Promedio ME 0.02%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 1013.05%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 40.07%

ITEM TTR PREDICCIÓN ERROR ERROR ABSOLUTO

𝑌_𝑡 Y ̂_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑒=𝑌_𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑑−(𝑌_𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑜 ) ̂ 𝑒= 〖𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_
1 38 31.8208 -6.1792 6.1792
2 12 30.4746 18.4746 18.4746
3 28 29.1284 1.1284 1.1284
4 42 27.7822 -14.2178 14.2178
5 23 26.436 3.436 3.436
6 40 25.0898 -14.9102 14.9102
7 18 23.7436 5.7436 5.7436
8 16 22.3974 6.3974 6.3974
9 16 21.0512 5.0512 5.0512
10 25 19.705 -5.295 5.295
11 25 18.3588 -6.6412 6.6412
12 10 17.0126 7.0126 7.0126
13 15.6664

Error Promedio ME 0.00%

Error Absoluto medio MAE 787.39%
Error absoluto medio re MAPE 40.14%
 ERROR MEDIO
〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂
0.237027906976744
0.26612
PREDICCION TBF
0.749547368421053 60
0.317179591836735
50
0.202678571428572
1.82431666666667 40
0.136953333333333 f(x) = 0.216783216783217 x + 32.5909090909091
30
0.271311111111111 R² = 0.004324504324504
0.279340740740741 20
0.131025
10
0.125605
0.266820833333333 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

ERROR MEDIO
〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑
𝑒= 〖) ̂)𝑎𝑏𝑠 (𝑌 〗 _𝑝−(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂)/(𝑌_𝑑 ) ̂
0.162610526315789
1.53955
PREDICCION TTR
0.0403 45
0.338519047619048 40
0.149391304347826 35
0.372755 30 f(x) = − 1.34615384615385 x + 33.1666666666667
0.319088888888889 25 R² = 0.199808223646815
0.3998375 20
0.3157 15
0.2118 10
0.265648 5
0.70126 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Holt's Linear Trend TBF
ITEM TBF TTR

1 43 38 43 u v forecast
2 45 12 45 45 0
3 19 28 19 35.1209105 -9.8790895 45
4 49 42 49 34.269097 -0.85181348 25.241821
5 28 23 28 31.3589055 -2.91019152 33.4172836
6 12 40 12 22.1987787 -9.16012681 28.448714
7 30 18 30 19.4833702 -2.71540851 13.0386519
8 27 16 27 20.6557779 1.17240773 16.7679617
9 27 16 27 23.793294 3.13751607 21.8281857
10 40 25 40 31.8966446 8.10335057 26.9308101
11 40 25 40 39.999997 8.10335242 39.9999951
12 48 10 48 48.0640802 8.06408327 48.1033494
13 > 56.1281635

alpha beta MAE MSE

0.37996498 1 11.7161922 213.030223

Holt's Linear Trend TTR

38 u v forecast
12 12 0
28 12.7858052 0 12
42 14.2205969 0 12.7858052
23 14.6517782 0 14.2205969
40 15.8967009 0 14.6517782
18 15.9999999 0 15.8967009
16 15.9999999 0 15.9999999
16 15.9999999 0 15.9999999
25 16.4420153 0 15.9999999
25 16.8623222 0 16.4420153
10 16.5252941 0 16.8623222
> 16.5252941

alpha beta MAE MSE

0.04911283 0 10.5865426 203.483388
sig level 0.05

s.e. lower upper

Forecast TBF
60
26 -25.7172426 76.2008846 50
24.9043276 -15.3943017 82.2288688
20.5734297 -11.8744673 68.7718953 40
19.6236988 -25.423091 51.5003948 30 actual

value
forecast
19.1209077 -20.7083287 54.2442521 20
17.9477954 -13.3488469 57.0052183
16.7310141 -5.86137494 59.7229951 10
16.3182856 8.01674314 71.9832471 0
15.3850272 17.9492502 78.2574486 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
14.5955549 27.5214016 84.7349255 time

MAPE
0.48822567

sig level 0.05

s.e. lower upper

Forecast TTR
45
16 -18.5736185 44.145229 40
23.5528043 -31.9420512 60.3832449 35
19.8875765 -24.3271555 53.6307118 30
21.3838692 -26.0149125 57.8083144 25 actual
value

19.1494298 -21.5321929 53.5321927 20 forecast

17.4809578 -18.2620478 50.2620476 15
16.1842221 -15.7204925 47.7204923 10
5
15.4697419 -13.8781216 46.7621523
0
14.8613683 -12.2654245 45.9900688 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
14.2647604 -11.4331224 44.4837107
time

MAPE
0.37878249
 actual
forecast

10 11

actual
forecast

10 11
 Holt-Winter Multiplicative TBF
ITEM TBF TTR

1 43 38 43 u v s
2 45 12 45 1.27659574
3 19 28 19 0.53900709
4 49 42 49 1.39007092
5 28 23 28 35.25 -2.8125 0.79432624
6 12 40 12 29.6861342 -5.35591854 1.27659574
7 30 18 30 28.0716765 -1.89723597 0.53900709
8 27 16 27 25.3681729 -2.6425662 1.39007092
9 27 16 27 24.0710398 -1.39882049 0.79432624
10 40 25 40 23.7066151 -0.44260397 1.27659574
11 40 25 40 29.3485472 5.18206499 0.53900709
12 48 10 48 34.5306122 5.182065 1.39007092
13 > 0.79432624

alpha beta gamma MAE

0.11942988 0.92442035 0 14.7350676
α+γ 0.11942988

Holt-Winter Multiplicative TTR

38 u v s
12 0.45714286
28 1.06666667
42 1.6
23 26.25 -0.9375 0.87619048
40 87.5 -0.9375 0.45714286
18 16.875 -0.9375 1.06666667
16 10 -0.9375 1.6
16 18.2608696 -0.9375 0.87619048
25 54.6875 -0.9375 0.45714286
25 23.4375 -0.9375 1.06666667
10 6.25 -0.9375 1.6
> 0.87619048

alpha beta gamma MAE

1 0 0 27.9622153
α+γ 1
 forecast Forecast TBF
60

50

40
41.4095745 actual
30
value
13.1141588 forecast
36.3843287 20
18.0515458 10
28.9432587
12.539467 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
47.9999999
time
31.5448216

MSE MAPE
313.503938 0.6650833

forecast
Forecast
100
90
80
70
11.5714286
60
92.3333333 actual
50
value

25.5 40 forecast
7.94047619 30
20
7.91925466
10
57.3333333 0
36 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
4.6547619 time

MSE MAPE
1214.57576 1.5020539
actual
forecast

actual
forecast
 ITEM TBF AR(1) ARMA(1,1) ARIMA(1,1,1) ARIMA Model

1 43 43 time data
2 45 45 1 9.82402571
3 19 19 2 11.8240257
4 49 49 3 -14.1759743
5 28 28 4 15.8240257
6 12 12 5 -5.17597429
7 30 30 6 -21.1759743
8 27 27 7 -3.17597429
9 27 27 8 -6.17597429
10 40 40 9 -6.17597429
11 40 40 10 6.82402571
12 48 48 48 48 11 6.82402571
13 32.982905981 40.998027937 41.740150759 12 14.8240257
14 33.178488811 38.682362848 44.160597836

PRONOSTICO MTBF
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

ITEM TTR AR(1) ARMA(1,1) ARIMA(1,1,1) ARIMA Model

1 38 38 time data
2 12 12 1 14.473777
3 28 28 2 -11.526223
4 42 42 3 4.47377699
5 23 23 4 18.473777
6 40 40 5 -0.52622301
7 18 18 6 16.473777
8 16 16 7 -5.52622301
 9 16 16 8 -7.52622301
10 25 25 9 -7.52622301
11 25 25 10 1.47377699
12 10 10 10 10 11 1.47377699
13 25.642711519 24.035283393 19.877946568 12 -13.526223
14 23.195049727 23.224684306 15.071957461

PRONOSTICO MTTR
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
 Model statistics Phi roots

residual index phi theta real imag

0 1 -0.01302401 0 #NAME? #NAME?
11.951974 const 33.6080586 33.1759743
-14.021978 Theta roots
15.6393976 SSE 1465.40904
-4.96988197 real imag
-21.2433862 p 1
-3.45177045 q 0 Psi coefficients
-6.21733822 d 0
-6.25641026 res mean 3.17935E-10 index psi
6.74358974 res s.d. 12.105408 0 #NAME?
6.91290191 sqrt mse 12.7602205 1 #NAME?
14.9129019 data mean 0.0058439
data s.d. 12.1063469
size 11

LL -42.5142931
AIC 57.8119386
BIC 58.6077291
AIC aug 89.0285863
BIC aug 89.8243768

Model statistics Phi roots

residual index phi theta real imag

0 1 -0.15647299 0 #NAME? #NAME?
-9.26146789 const 27.2074414 23.526223
2.67023445 Theta roots
19.1738022 SSE 1069.43425
2.36442406 real imag
16.3914373 p 1
-2.94852192 q 0 Psi coefficients
-8.39092762 d 0
-8.7038736 res mean -4.8919E-10 index psi
0.2961264 res s.d. 10.3413454 0 #NAME?
1.70438328 sqrt mse 10.9007352 1 #NAME?
-13.2956167 data mean -0.34440482
data s.d. 10.467265
size 11

LL -40.7817676
AIC 54.3468875
BIC 55.1426781
AIC aug 85.5635353
BIC aug 86.3593258
 Model parameters

abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat p-value

#NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? 2.79166585 0.02099661
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? -0.0373653 0.97100941

abs val

Model parameters

abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat p-value

#NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? 2.96338308 0.01587206
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? -0.469583 0.64982174

abs val
Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper
1 9.82402571 0 9.82402571 12.7602205 -15.1855468 34.8335982
2 11.8240257 11.951974 -0.12794824 12.7602205 -25.1375208 24.8816243
3 -14.1759743 -14.021978 -0.15399627 12.7602205 -25.1635688 24.8555763
4 15.8240257 15.6393976 0.18462808 12.7602205 -24.8249445 25.1942006
5 -5.17597429 -4.96988197 -0.20609232 12.7602205 -25.2156649 24.8034802
6 -21.1759743 -21.2433862 0.06741196 12.7602205 -24.9421606 25.0769845
7 -3.17597429 -3.45177045 0.27579617 12.7602205 -24.7337764 25.2853687
8 -6.17597429 -6.21733822 0.04136393 12.7602205 -24.9682086 25.0509365
9 -6.17597429 -6.25641026 0.08043597 12.7602205 -24.9291366 25.0900085
10 6.82402571 6.74358974 0.08043597 12.7602205 -24.9291366 25.0900085
11 6.82402571 6.91290191 -0.0888762 12.7602205 -25.0984487 24.9206963
12 14.8240257 14.9129019 -0.0888762 12.7602205 -25.0984487 24.9206963
13 -0.19306831 12.7602205 -25.2026408 24.8165042
14 0.00251452 12.7613026 -25.009179 25.0142081

Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper
1 14.473777 0 14.473777 10.9007352 -6.8912714 35.8388254
2 -11.526223 -9.26146789 -2.26475512 10.9007352 -23.6298035 19.1002933
3 4.47377699 2.67023445 1.80354254 10.9007352 -19.5615059 23.1685909
4 18.473777 19.1738022 -0.70002525 10.9007352 -22.0650736 20.6650231
5 -0.52622301 2.36442406 -2.89064706 10.9007352 -24.2556955 18.4744013
6 16.473777 16.3914373 0.08233969 10.9007352 -21.2827087 21.4473881
7 -5.52622301 -2.94852192 -2.57770109 10.9007352 -23.9427495 18.7873473
 8 -7.52622301 -8.39092762 0.86470462 10.9007352 -20.5003438 22.229753
9 -7.52622301 -8.7038736 1.17765059 10.9007352 -20.1873978 22.542699
10 1.47377699 0.2961264 1.17765059 10.9007352 -20.1873978 22.542699
11 1.47377699 1.70438328 -0.23060629 10.9007352 -21.5956547 21.1344421
12 -13.526223 -13.2956167 -0.23060629 10.9007352 -21.5956547 21.1344421
13 2.11648851 10.9007352 -19.2485599 23.4815369
14 -0.33117328 11.0333739 -21.9561888 21.2938422
Forecast ARIMA Model Model statistics

time forecast time data residual index phi

1 43 1 8.98936798 0 1 0.66859398
2 45 2 10.989368 4.97913069 const 11.2713283
3 19 3 -15.010632 -5.62844379
4 49 4 14.989368 6.11411529 SSE
5 28 5 -6.01063202 4.510668
6 12 6 -22.010632 -2.8363558 p
7 30 7 -4.01063202 1.17553983 q
8 27 8 -7.01063202 -0.37939648 d
9 27 9 -7.01063202 -3.59811759 res mean
10 40 10 5.98936798 -1.41284881 res s.d.
11 40 11 5.98936798 -2.76218402 sqrt mse
12 48 12 13.989368 0.70412167 data mean
13 32.982906 data s.d.
14 33.1784888 size

LL
AIC
BIC
AIC aug
BIC aug

Forecast ARIMA Model Model statistics

time forecast time data residual index phi

1 38 1 14.559481 0 1 -0.36289103
2 12 2 -11.440519 -6.15701397 const 31.9468729
3 28 3 4.55948102 2.37244223
4 42 4 18.559481 19.4570604 SSE
5 23 5 -0.44051898 0.08605587
6 40 6 16.559481 16.3721613 p
7 18 7 -5.44051898 -4.65537512 q
 8 16 8 -7.44051898 -7.92936499 d
9 16 9 -7.44051898 -7.61045956 res mean
10 25 10 1.55948102 1.28778187 res s.d.
11 25 11 1.55948102 1.71448829 sqrt mse
12 10 12 -13.440519 -13.4216682 data mean
13 25.6427115 data s.d.
14 23.1950497 size

LL
AIC
BIC
AIC aug
BIC aug
 Phi roots Model parameters

theta real imag abs val param coeff

-3.35994665 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? const #NAME?
34.010632 phi 1 #NAME?
Theta roots theta 1 #NAME?
146.838443
real imag abs val
1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
1
0 Psi coefficients
0.07874809
3.83106029 index psi
3.65362141 0 #NAME?
-0.82881383 1 #NAME?
12.1063469
11

-29.8612311
36.5058145
38.0973956
67.7224622
69.3140433

Phi roots Model parameters

theta real imag abs val param coeff

0.31908696 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? const #NAME?
23.440519 phi 1 #NAME?
Theta roots theta 1 #NAME?
1017.37504
real imag abs val
1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
1
 0 Psi coefficients
0.13782802
10.0854652 index psi
9.61710146 0 #NAME?
-0.25870079 1 #NAME?
10.467265
11

-40.5072959
57.7979441
59.3895252
89.0145919
90.606173
 Forecast (reduced)
Alpha
s.e. t-stat p-value time data residual pred
#NAME? 0.99198257 0.3502578 1 8.98936798 0 8.98936798
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2 10.989368 4.97913069 6.0102373
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3 -15.010632 -5.62844379 -9.38218823
4 14.989368 6.11411529 8.8752527
5 -6.01063202 4.510668 -10.5213
6 -22.010632 -2.8363558 -19.1742762
7 -4.01063202 1.17553983 -5.18617185
8 -7.01063202 -0.37939648 -6.63123554
9 -7.01063202 -3.59811759 -3.41251443
10 5.98936798 -1.41284881 7.4022168
11 5.98936798 -2.76218402 8.751552
12 13.989368 0.70412167 13.2852463
13 6.98739592
14 4.67173083

Forecast (reduced)
Alpha
s.e. t-stat p-value time data residual pred
#NAME? 1.98724931 0.08212201 1 14.559481 0 14.559481
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 2 -11.440519 -6.15701397 -5.283505
#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 3 4.55948102 2.37244223 2.18703879
4 18.559481 19.4570604 -0.89757936
5 -0.44051898 0.08605587 -0.52657485
6 16.559481 16.3721613 0.18731969
7 -5.44051898 -4.65537512 -0.78514386
 8 -7.44051898 -7.92936499 0.48884601
9 -7.44051898 -7.61045956 0.16994059
10 1.55948102 1.28778187 0.27169915
11 1.55948102 1.71448829 -0.15500727
12 -13.440519 -13.4216682 -0.01885081
13 0.59476442
14 -0.21583467
 Forecast ARIMA Model
0.05
s.e. lower upper time forecast time data
3.65362141 1.82840162 16.1503344 1 43 1 1.73562483
3.65362141 -1.15072907 13.1712037 2 45 2 -26.2643752
3.65362141 -16.5431546 -2.22122186 3 19 3 29.7356248
3.65362141 1.71428633 16.0362191 4 49 4 -21.2643752
3.65362141 -17.6822664 -3.36033365 5 28 5 -16.2643752
3.65362141 -26.3352426 -12.0133099 6 12 6 17.7356248
3.65362141 -12.3471382 1.97479452 7 30 7 -3.26437517
3.65362141 -13.7922019 0.52973083 8 27 8 -0.26437517
3.65362141 -10.5734808 3.74845194 9 27 9 12.7356248
3.65362141 0.24125043 14.5631832 10 40 10 -0.26437517
3.65362141 1.59058564 15.9125184 11 40 11 7.73562483
3.65362141 6.12427994 20.4462127 12 48
3.65362141 -0.17357045 14.1483623 13 40.9980279
10.4900168 -15.8883242 25.2317859 14 38.6823628

Forecast ARIMA Model

0.05
s.e. lower upper time forecast time data
9.61710146 -4.28969146 33.4086535 1 38 1 -25.5501079
9.61710146 -24.1326775 13.5656675 2 12 2 16.4498921
9.61710146 -16.6621337 21.0362113 3 28 3 14.4498921
9.61710146 -19.7467519 17.9515931 4 42 4 -18.5501079
9.61710146 -19.3757473 18.3225976 5 23 5 17.4498921
9.61710146 -18.6618528 19.0364922 6 40 6 -21.5501079
9.61710146 -19.6343163 18.0640286 7 18 7 -1.55010794
9.61710146 -18.3603265 19.3380185 8 16 8 0.44989206
9.61710146 -18.6792319 19.0191131 9 16 9 9.44989206
9.61710146 -18.5774733 19.1208716 10 25 10 0.44989206
9.61710146 -19.0041798 18.6941652 11 25 11 -14.5501079
9.61710146 -18.8680233 18.8303217 12 10
9.61710146 -18.2544081 19.4439369 13 24.0352834
9.62632366 -19.0830824 18.651413 14 23.2246843
 Model statistics Phi roots

residual index phi theta real imag

0 1 -0.33047176 -0.36729032 #NAME? #NAME?
-25.6908002 const 0.3517437 0.26437517
11.6200085 Theta roots
-7.1696744 SSE 1890.25
-25.9250026 real imag
2.83870579 p 1 #NAME? #NAME?
3.63937707 q 1
-0.00645102 d 1 Psi coefficients
12.6458869 res mean -0.86558991
8.58910094 res s.d. 14.4635847 index psi
10.8029499 sqrt mse 13.7486363 0 #NAME?
data mean 0.03562483 1 #NAME?
data s.d. 17.7579403
size 10

LL -40.3987817
AIC 60.4187928
BIC 61.6291332
AIC aug 88.7975635
BIC aug 90.0079038

Model statistics Phi roots

residual index phi theta real imag

0 1 -0.42178206 -0.35470248 #NAME? #NAME?
5.6733149 const -0.63964846 -0.44989206
23.4005003 Theta roots
-4.1551872 SSE 1285.59382
8.15193411 real imag
-11.2985453 p 1 #NAME? #NAME?
-14.6471789 q 1
-5.39930635 d 1 Psi coefficients
7.7245011 res mean 0.48104662
7.1755867 res s.d. 11.9409648 index psi
-11.8151531 sqrt mse 11.338403 0 #NAME?
data mean 0.24989206 1 #NAME?
data s.d. 14.5128296
size 10

LL -38.4713399
AIC 56.5639091
BIC 57.7742495
AIC aug 84.9426798
BIC aug 86.1530201
 Model parameters

abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat p-value

#NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? 0.09391556 0.92780789
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
theta 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

abs val
#NAME?

Model parameters

abs val param coeff s.e. t-stat p-value

#NAME? const #NAME? #NAME? -0.20974465 0.83984087
phi 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
theta 1 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

abs val
#NAME?
Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper
1 1.73562483 0 1.73562483 13.7486363 -25.2112071 28.6824568
2 -26.2643752 -25.6908002 -0.57357499 13.7486363 -27.5204069 26.373257
3 29.7356248 11.6200085 18.1156163 13.7486363 -8.83121561 45.0624483
4 -21.2643752 -7.1696744 -14.0947008 13.7486363 -41.0415327 12.8521312
5 -16.2643752 -25.9250026 9.6606274 13.7486363 -17.2862045 36.6074593
6 17.7356248 2.83870579 14.896919 13.7486363 -12.0499129 41.843751
7 -3.26437517 3.63937707 -6.90375224 13.7486363 -33.8505842 20.0430797
8 -0.26437517 -0.00645102 -0.25792416 13.7486363 -27.2047561 26.6889078
9 12.7356248 12.6458869 0.08973792 13.7486363 -26.857094 27.0365699
10 -0.26437517 8.58910094 -8.85347611 13.7486363 -35.8003081 18.0933558
11 7.73562483 10.8029499 -3.06732508 13.7486363 -30.014157 23.8795069
12 -6.52422441 13.7486363 -33.4710564 20.4226075
13 2.1560719 16.7647237 -30.7021829 35.0143267

Forecast (reduced)
Alpha 0.05
time data residual pred s.e. lower upper
1 -25.5501079 0 -25.5501079 11.338403 -47.7729694 -3.32724651
2 16.4498921 5.6733149 10.7765772 11.338403 -11.4462843 32.9994386
3 14.4498921 23.4005003 -8.95060823 11.338403 -31.1734697 13.2722532
4 -18.5501079 -4.1551872 -14.3949207 11.338403 -36.6177822 7.82794069
5 17.4498921 8.15193411 9.29795794 11.338403 -12.9249035 31.5208194
6 -21.5501079 -11.2985453 -10.2515627 11.338403 -32.4744241 11.9712988
7 -1.55010794 -14.6471789 13.097071 11.338403 -9.12579048 35.3199324
 8 0.44989206 -5.39930635 5.84919841 11.338403 -16.373663 28.0720598
9 9.44989206 7.7245011 1.72539096 11.338403 -20.4974705 23.9482524
10 0.44989206 7.1755867 -6.72569464 11.338403 -28.9485561 15.4971668
11 -14.5501079 -11.8151531 -2.7349548 11.338403 -24.9578162 19.4879066
12 10.3278386 11.338403 -11.8950228 32.5507001
13 -4.35609705 14.3551894 -32.4917513 23.7795572
Forecast

time forecast
1 43
2 45
3 19
4 49
5 28
6 12
7 30
8 27
9 27
10 40
11 40
12 48
13 41.7401508
14 44.1605978

Forecast

time forecast
1 38
2 12
3 28
4 42
5 23
6 40
7 18
 8 16
9 16
10 25
11 25
12 10
13 19.8779466
14 15.0719575
 Técnicas predicción MTBF Weibull MTBF pronóstico ERROR MTBF MTTR Weibull

Promedio Movil 31.50 30.083333333333 4.497% 21.63

Promedio ponderado 33.44 28.674899580652 14.261% 23.89
Suavizacion exponencial 33.18 33.903057659213 2.174% 23.18
Regresion Lineal 34.00 34.0002 0.001% 24.42
Modelo Holt 32.00 29.877677239541 6.632% 24.30
Holt Multiplicativo 32.00 28.348904764651 11.410% 21.43
MTTR pronóstico ERROR MTTR

25.333333333333 17.148%
15.805535472498 26.911%
23.363636363636 8.040%
24.4167 12.910%
15.085921838677 30.239%
34.085403726708 57.620%