Passengers Month 700

International airline passenger (thousands)

1 112 Jan-49 600
2 118 Feb-49
3 500
132 Mar-49
4 129 Apr-49 400
5 121 May-49
6 135 Jun-49 300
7 148 Jul-49
200
8 148 Aug-49
9 136 Sep-49 100
10 119 Oct-49
11 104 Nov-49 0 Jan-49

Sep-49
Jan-50

Sep-50
Jan-51

Sep-51
Jan-52

Sep-52
Jan-53

Sep-53
Jan-54

Sep-54
Jan-55

Sep-55
Jan-56

Jan-57

Jan-58

Sep-58
May-49

May-50

May-51

May-52

May-53

May-54

May-55

May-56
Sep-56

May-57
Sep-57

May-58
12 118 Dec-49
13 115 Jan-50
14 126 Feb-50
15 141 Mar-50
16 135 Apr-50
17 125 May-50
18 149 Jun-50
19 170 Jul-50 REGRESIÓN LINEAL
Cantidad de pasajeros

20 170 Aug-50
21 158 Sep-50
22 133 Oct-50
23 114 Nov-50
24 140 Dec-50 Tendencia en el número de pasajeros
25 145 Jan-51 700
26 150 Feb-51 600
27 178 Mar-51
28 500
163 Apr-51
f(x) = 2.65718390804598 x + 87.6527777777775
29 172 May-51 400 R² = 0.853638165603188
30 178 Jun-51
300
31 199 Jul-51
32 199 Aug-51 200
33 184 Sep-51 100
34 162 Oct-51
35 146 Nov-51 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1
36 166 Dec-51 meses entre enero del 49 y ciembre del 61
37 171 Jan-52
38 180 Feb-52
39 193 Mar-52 Pronóstico
40 181 Apr-52 Pendiente (a)
41 183 May-52
y=2,657x+87,65
Ordenada al
42 218 Jun-52 Periodo origen (b)
43 230 Jul-52 145 Enero del 61 475.528
44 242 Aug-52 146 Febrero del 61 478.203
45 209 Sep-52 147 Marzo del 61 480.878
46 191 Oct-52 148 Abril del 61 483.553
47 172 Nov-52 149 Mayo del 61 486.228
48 194 Dec-52 150 Junio del 61 488.903
49 196 Jan-53 151 Julio del 61 491.578
50 196 Feb-53 152 Agosto del 61 494.253
51 236 Mar-53 153 Septiembre del 61 496.928
 52 235 Apr-53 154 Octubre del 61 499.603
53 229 May-53 155 Noviembre del 61 502.278
54 243 Jun-53 156 Diciembre del 61 504.953
55 264 Jul-53
56 272 Aug-53
57 237 Sep-53 A pesar de que el comportamiento en la demanda de
58 211 Oct-53 pasajeros, el pronóstico desarrollado para los doce mese
59 180 Nov-53 del 61, proyecta una tendencia aceptable
60 201 Dec-53
61 204 Jan-54
62 188 Feb-54
63 235 Mar-54
64 227 Apr-54
65 234 May-54
66 264 Jun-54
67 302 Jul-54
68 293 Aug-54
69 259 Sep-54
70 229 Oct-54
71 203 Nov-54
72 229 Dec-54
73 242 Jan-55
74 233 Feb-55
75 267 Mar-55
76 269 Apr-55
77 270 May-55
78 315 Jun-55
79 364 Jul-55
80 347 Aug-55
81 312 Sep-55
82 274 Oct-55
83 237 Nov-55
84 278 Dec-55
85 284 Jan-56
86 277 Feb-56
87 317 Mar-56
88 313 Apr-56
89 318 May-56
90 374 Jun-56
91 413 Jul-56
92 405 Aug-56
93 355 Sep-56
94 306 Oct-56
95 271 Nov-56
96 306 Dec-56
97 315 Jan-57
98 301 Feb-57
99 356 Mar-57
100 348 Apr-57
101 355 May-57
102 422 Jun-57
103 465 Jul-57
104 467 Aug-57
105 404 Sep-57
106 347 Oct-57
107 305 Nov-57
108 336 Dec-57
109 340 Jan-58
110 318 Feb-58
111 362 Mar-58
112 348 Apr-58
113 363 May-58
114 435 Jun-58
115 491 Jul-58
116 505 Aug-58
117 404 Sep-58
118 359 Oct-58
119 310 Nov-58
120 337 Dec-58
121 360 Jan-59
122 342 Feb-59
123 406 Mar-59
124 396 Apr-59
125 420 May-59
126 472 Jun-59
127 548 Jul-59
128 559 Aug-59
129 463 Sep-59
130 407 Oct-59
131 362 Nov-59
132 405 Dec-59
133 417 Jan-60
134 391 Feb-60
135 419 Mar-60
136 461 Apr-60
137 472 May-60
138 535 Jun-60
139 622 Jul-60
140 606 Aug-60
141 508 Sep-60
142 461 Oct-60
143 390 Nov-60
144 432 Dec-60
 MÉTODO DE HOLT
nds)

t Yt Passengers) At Tt Yt' |et|

1 112 112 0
2 118 114.52 0.76 112.00 6.00
3 132 122.3 2.86 123.59 8.41
4 129 126.77 3.35 156.66 27.66
5 121 126.29 2.20 166.93 45.93
6 135 131.22 3.02 152.66 17.66
7 148 140.02 4.75 167.44 19.44
8 148 146.13 5.16 197.04 49.04
9 136 144.87 3.23 208.03 72.03
Sep-55
Jan-56

Jan-57

Jan-58

Sep-58
Jan-59

Jan-60
May-56
Sep-56

May-57
Sep-57

May-58

May-59
Sep-59

May-60
Sep-60

10 119 135.88 -0.43 183.65 64.65

11 104 122.24 -4.40 130.67 26.67
12 118 117.91 -4.38 69.49 48.51
13 115 114.15 -4.19 65.40 49.60
14 126 116.7 -2.17 63.86 62.14
15 141 125.65 1.17 90.66 50.34
16 135 130.25 2.20 139.64 4.64
EAL 17 125 129.32 1.26 156.63 31.63
18 149 138.32 3.58 144.43 4.57
19 170 153.7 7.12 181.28 11.28
20 170 164.68 8.28 239.16 69.16
21 158 166.67 6.39 264.01 106.01
mero de pasajeros 22 133 156.24 1.35 243.40 110.40
23 114 139.28 -4.15 172.38 58.38
24 140 137.18 -3.53 89.52 50.48
25 145 138.41 -2.10 94.78 50.22
26 150 142.06 -0.38 113.19 36.81
27 178 156.94 4.20 137.53 40.47
Passengers 28 163 161.92 4.43 207.32 44.32
Linear (Passengers) 29 172 168.72 5.15 215.12 43.12
30 178 175.6 5.67 230.47 52.47
31 199 188.72 7.90 243.59 44.59
32 199 197.62 8.20 283.51 84.51
33 184 196.65 5.45 296.02 112.02
00 120 140 160
re del 61 34 162 185.26 0.40 262.07 100.07
35 146 169 -4.60 190.03 44.03
36 166 165.07 -4.40 113.81 52.19
37 171 165.01 -3.10 112.30 58.70
2.675 38 180 169.51 -0.82 127.85 52.15
39 193 178.9 2.24 159.69 33.31
87.653
40 181 181.08 2.23 205.83 24.83
41 183 183.18 2.19 207.80 24.80
42 218 199.07 6.30 209.42 8.58
43 230 215.72 9.40 274.66 44.66
44 242 232.21 11.53 328.54 86.54
45 209 229.15 7.15 370.56 161.56
46 191 217.27 1.44 314.97 123.97
47 172 199.1 -4.44 234.61 62.61
48 194 194.38 -4.52 145.79 48.21
49 196 192.44 -3.75 140.08 55.92
 50 196 191.76 -2.83 147.43 48.57
51 236 208.7 3.10 157.81 78.19
52 235 221.54 6.03 245.93 10.93
53 229 228.17 6.21 293.85 64.85
54 243 238 7.29 302.64 59.64
55 264 253.15 9.65 325.50 61.50
56 272 266.66 10.81 368.94 96.94
57 237 260.47 5.71 396.37 159.37
58 211 243.01 -1.24 328.99 117.99
59 180 215.82 -9.03 228.08 48.08
60 201 204.36 -9.76 107.51 93.49
61 204 198.55 -8.57 87.29 116.71
62 188 189.15 -8.82 95.68 92.32
63 235 203.29 -1.93 83.29 151.71
64 227 212.13 1.30 180.09 46.91
65 234 222.07 3.89 227.71 6.29
66 264 241.94 8.68 268.75 4.75
67 302 272.2 15.16 346.14 44.14
68 293 289.73 15.87 454.10 161.10
69 259 286.03 10.00 480.16 221.16
70 229 267.87 1.55 406.00 177.00
71 203 241.53 -6.82 286.51 83.51
72 229 232.31 -7.54 159.73 69.27
73 242 232.01 -5.37 141.88 100.12
74 233 229.31 -4.57 167.62 65.38
75 267 242.49 0.76 174.53 92.47
76 269 254.07 4.00 251.60 17.40
77 270 263.08 5.51 302.10 32.10
78 315 288.08 11.35 329.15 14.15
79 364 326.55 19.49 424.33 60.33
80 347 346.44 19.61 560.43 213.43
81 312 343.35 12.80 581.77 269.77
82 274 321.65 2.45 496.94 222.94
83 237 287.52 -8.53 351.03 114.03
84 278 278.57 -8.65 185.21 92.79
85 284 275.84 -6.88 174.77 109.23
86 277 272.34 -5.86 193.31 83.69
87 317 287.69 0.50 201.97 115.03
88 313 298.61 3.63 293.73 19.27
89 318 308.86 5.61 342.15 24.15
90 374 339.47 13.11 376.22 2.22
91 413 377.96 20.73 496.84 83.84
92 405 401.34 21.52 626.67 221.67
93 355 394.36 12.97 659.59 304.59
94 306 364.77 0.20 550.01 244.01
95 271 325.51 -11.64 367.21 96.21
96 306 310.56 -12.63 185.85 120.15
97 315 305.1 -10.48 159.02 155.98
98 301 297.3 -9.68 179.36 121.64
99 356 316.34 -1.06 181.20 174.80
100 348 329.02 3.06 303.62 44.38
101 355 341.71 5.95 365.77 10.77
102 422 378.88 15.32 413.10 8.90
103 465 423.94 24.24 562.68 97.68
104 467 456.08 26.61 714.78 247.78
105 404 449.64 16.69 775.39 371.39
106 347 416.21 1.66 649.97 302.97
107 305 370.47 -12.56 436.12 131.12
108 336 348.7 -15.32 219.70 116.30
109 340 336.16 -14.49 164.82 175.18
110 318 320.13 -14.95 162.29 155.71
111 362 329.04 -7.79 140.71 221.29
112 348 332.49 -4.42 235.54 112.46
113 363 342.74 -0.02 279.42 83.58
114 435 381.48 11.61 342.50 92.50
115 491 434.21 23.95 520.77 29.77
116 505 477.83 29.85 721.55 216.55
117 404 464.13 16.78 836.00 432.00
118 359 429.71 1.42 665.55 306.55
119 310 380.26 -13.84 446.79 136.79
120 337 354.06 -17.55 214.18 122.82
121 360 346.38 -14.59 143.50 216.50
122 342 336.08 -13.30 171.33 170.67
123 406 357.73 -2.82 176.46 229.54
124 396 372.17 2.36 323.95 72.05
125 420 393.63 8.09 400.51 19.49
126 472 431.24 16.95 490.71 18.71
127 548 490.11 29.52 634.58 86.58
128 559 536.16 34.48 844.38 285.38
129 463 525.44 20.92 949.97 486.97
130 407 487.83 3.36 776.47 369.47
131 362 436.93 -12.92 528.16 166.16
132 405 416.03 -15.31 281.93 123.07
133 417 407.55 -13.26 232.28 184.72
134 391 392.91 -13.68 248.43 142.57
135 419 395.94 -8.66 228.81 190.19
136 461 418.24 0.62 291.96 169.04
137 472 441.18 7.32 425.74 46.26
138 535 484.83 18.22 529.02 5.98
139 622 553.01 33.21 703.46 81.46
140 606 594.52 35.70 951.49 345.49
141 508 578.89 20.30 1022.9 514.92
142 461 541.15 2.89 822.48 361.48
143 390 479.34 -16.52 575.80 185.80
144 432 449.88 -20.40 281.09 150.91
145 Pronóstico 1 Jan 61 429.47
146 Pronóstico 2 Feb 61 409.07
147 Pronóstico 3 Mar 61 388.66
148 Pronóstico 4 Apr 61 368.26
149 Pronóstico 5 May 61 347.85
150 Pronóstico 6 Jun 61 327.45
151 Pronóstico 7 Jul 61 307.04
152 Pronóstico 8 Aug 61 286.64
153 Pronóstico 9 Sep 61 266.23
154 Pronóstico 10 Oct 61 245.83
155 Pronóstico 11 Nov 61 225.43
156 Pronóstico 12 Dec 61 205.02
DAM 109.87
T MÉTODO DE PRONÓS

α 0.42 t Yt Passengers) At
β 0.3 -10
p 12 -9
-8
-7
Usando el Método de Holt para pronosticar los 12 -6
meses del 61, se optiene un error promedio de -5
109,7, no obstante si se variaran los parámetros, se -4
optienen errore muy altos por lo que se puede -3
determinar que este método no es el más adecuado -2
para pronosticar la situaciín analizada -1
0
1 112 112
2 118 114.52
3 132 122.3001
4 129 126.7747
5 121 126.2904
6 135 131.2229
7 148 140.0197
8 148 146.1273
9 136 144.8657
10 119 135.8769
11 104 122.2369
12 118 117.9078
13 115 114.1486
14 126 115.9816
15 141 123.0661
16 135 127.8989
17 125 128.7164
18 149 137.296
19 170 151.3416
20 170 162.6794
21 158 167.3036
22 133 160.3049
23 114 145.9562
24 140 142.0947
25 145 141.5018
26 150 141.0482
27 178 149.7584
28 163 154.227
29 172 164.7975
30 178 169.8939
31 199 179.5304
32 199 189.4662
33 184 194.7035
34 162 193.0744
35 146 185.3711
36 166 178.0694
37 171 173.1776
38 180 170.6115
39 193 169.046
40 181 169.6755
41 183 173.9186
42 218 188.5209
43 230 200.8542
44 242 218.6492
45 209 224.8062
46 191 227.9518
47 172 223.4426
48 194 216.0943
49 196 207.7571
50 196 197.2701
51 236 198.9231
52 235 207.4852
53 229 214.3234
54 243 218.8706
55 264 228.3477
56 272 242.3553
57 237 250.6396
58 211 253.6244
59 180 244.9856
60 201 233.4553
61 204 222.0141
62 188 202.7905
63 235 197.4494
64 227 197.4135
65 234 205.2002
66 264 218.6611
67 302 240.5078
68 293 257.1453
69 259 270.7661
70 229 277.7747
71 203 277.5263
72 229 271.7749
73 242 266.5389
74 233 254.666
75 267 241.5473
76 269 237.7881
77 270 238.994
78 315 251.7262
79 364 275.5295
80 347 295.4215
81 312 316.1068
82 274 329.4266
83 237 331.2602
84 278 331.5698
85 284 324.6992
86 277 312.3454
87 317 296.7992
88 313 285.8722
89 318 282.227
90 374 291.4987
91 413 307.171
92 405 329.3362
 93 355 350.6148
94 306 364.9257
95 271 373.8716
96 306 373.4622
97 315 367.4754
98 301 352.4706
99 356 338.2606
100 348 324.6544
101 355 317.3312
102 422 323.1018
103 465 336.5002
104 467 362.0977
105 404 386.9416
106 347 406.6242
107 305 419.9296
108 336 419.9251
109 340 411.1124
110 318 390.8839
111 362 365.3705
112 348 340.0314
113 363 325.362
114 435 324.5379
115 491 337.0302
116 505 365.8998
117 404 383.3597
118 359 406.6042
119 310 422.3524
120 337 425.3239
121 360 429.1772
122 342 421.718
123 406 410.5436
124 396 394.4099
125 420 383.6972
126 472 371.0382
127 548 375.9913
128 559 396.3809
129 463 420.1653
130 407 447.4704
131 362 475.9244
132 405 497.1882
133 417 505.8534
134 391 499.2554
135 419 467.889
136 461 456.6704
137 472 440.9053
138 535 425.3466
139 622 424.6054
140 606 430.6188
141 508 448.4053
142 461 480.9902
143 390 505.822
144 432 526.0636
145 Pronóstico 1 Jan 61
146 Pronóstico 2 Feb 61
147 Pronóstico 3 Mar 61
148 Pronóstico 4 Apr 61
149 Pronóstico 5 May 61
150 Pronóstico 6 Jun 61
151 Pronóstico 7 Jul 61
152 Pronóstico 8 Aug 61
153 Pronóstico 9 Sep 61
154 Pronóstico 10 Oct 61
155 Pronóstico 11 Nov 61
156 Pronóstico 12 Dec 61
DAM
MÉTODO DE PRONÓSTICO DE WINTERS

Tt St Yt' |et| L 12
1 α 0.42 Usando el método de Winters, para pron
1 β 0.3 notamos que este se ajusta a la tendencias
γ 0.45 lo que se puede concluir que este método e
1
pronosticar la demanda en esta situación
1 relativamente bajo en comparación con
1
1
1
1
1 Curvas de demanda real Vs pronóstico
1 1000
1
900
0 1
0.756 1.013674 112 6.00 800
2.863224 1.035691 115.276 16.72 700
3.346648 1.007899 125.1633 3.84 600
2.197356 0.981149 130.1214 9.12 500
3.0179 1.012953 128.4877 6.51 400
4.75156 1.025647 134.2408 13.76 300
5.158386 1.005767 144.7712 3.23 200
3.232389 0.97246 151.2857 15.29 100
-0.433971 0.944107 148.0981 29.10 0
-4.395779 0.932863 135.4429 31.44 46

106
1
6
11
16
21
26
31
36
41

51
56
61
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101

111
116
121
126
-4.37576 1.000352 117.8411 0.16 Demanda Real Pronóstico
-4.190803 1.003356 113.5321 1.47
-2.383654 1.046391 111.4614 14.54
0.456772 1.085207 117.6524 23.35
1.769587 1.029329 124.4985 10.50
1.483963 0.976639 127.2241 2.22
3.612652 1.045485 131.8868 17.11
6.742531 1.069585 144.5226 25.48
8.121114 1.023422 158.9958 11.00
7.072039 0.959829 166.0967 8.10
2.850823 0.89261 164.6292 31.63
-2.309041 0.86455 152.202 38.20
-2.774782 0.99356 143.6977 3.70
-2.120203 1.012971 139.7875 5.21
-1.620211 1.054075 145.8477 4.15
1.478889 1.131725 151.3082 26.69
2.375799 1.041729 155.6729 7.33
4.834234 1.006819 152.9444 19.06
4.912876 1.046487 177.3475 0.65
6.329953 1.087073 186.9708 12.03
7.411709 1.035526 190.2135 8.79
6.759394 0.953168 188.9691 4.97
4.242844 0.86851 179.8278 17.83
0.658989 0.829927 170.5906 24.59
-1.729222 0.965957 184.832 18.83
-2.67797 1.001475 178.6274 7.63
-2.644432 1.054504 179.7194 0.28
-2.320729 1.136214 190.0925 2.91
-1.435662 1.052985 173.6825 7.32
0.267951 1.027248 169.3871 13.61
4.568255 1.095935 182.284 35.72
6.897762 1.11319 209.902 20.10
10.16693 1.067597 215.1325 26.87
8.963974 0.942603 218.1002 9.10
7.218454 0.854734 203.0318 12.03
3.700149 0.802857 195.1741 23.17
0.385631 0.935267 219.4102 25.41
-2.231226 0.975346 216.7993 20.80
-4.707948 1.02708 216.7279 20.73
-2.799662 1.158792 218.7919 17.21
0.608849 1.088817 206.515 28.48
2.477648 1.045802 213.7641 15.24
3.098514 1.102375 237.5998 5.40
5.012114 1.132513 247.0937 16.91
7.710763 1.092222 249.1344 22.87
7.8828 0.943943 235.713 1.29
6.413399 0.844476 220.9678 9.97
1.897739 0.772203 208.7733 28.77
-2.130653 0.901837 230.9018 29.90
-4.92383 0.949927 225.6215 21.62
-9.213759 0.982073 222.9691 34.97
-8.051964 1.172916 224.3152 10.68
-5.64715 1.116291 206.219 20.78
-1.616984 1.088348 200.5496 33.45
2.906393 1.149612 224.425 39.58
8.588486 1.187937 250.9282 51.07
11.00317 1.113467 272.0685 20.93
11.78847 0.949614 253.1168 5.88
10.35452 0.835446 238.6106 9.61
7.173632 0.75387 222.4944 19.49
3.296134 0.875184 256.7529 27.75
0.736473 0.931031 261.2976 19.30
-3.046322 0.951856 262.484 29.48
-6.068047 1.142522 295.1288 28.13
-5.375381 1.123027 262.8634 6.14
-3.401014 1.106973 252.946 17.05
1.438953 1.195399 270.8406 44.16
8.148263 1.247857 300.7442 63.26
11.6714 1.140974 315.8659 31.13
14.37556 0.966441 291.6197 20.38
14.05882 0.833782 276.1002 2.10
10.39127 0.736581 258.9433 21.94
7.366747 0.858648 299.0081 21.01
3.095562 0.905662 315.5604 31.56
-1.53927 0.922598 312.0134 35.01
-5.741333 1.109015 355.1028 38.10
-7.297026 1.110367 326.8657 13.87
-6.201484 1.115874 308.3751 9.62
-1.559542 1.23483 329.9605 44.04
3.610027 1.291359 361.8025 51.20
9.17657 1.180921 354.593 50.41
 12.80717 0.987171 327.1527 27.85
13.25831 0.835917 303.0147 2.99
11.96457 0.731301 278.5631 7.56
8.252387 0.840968 331.2973 25.30
3.980647 0.883854 345.7044 30.70
-1.715005 0.891716 342.7048 41.70
-5.463508 1.083558 388.9932 32.99
-7.906302 1.093061 369.527 21.53
-7.731378 1.117148 353.4509 1.55
-3.680791 1.266897 382.3033 39.70
1.442979 1.332089 412.4871 52.51
8.689328 1.229875 399.0844 67.92
13.5357 1.012782 366.0302 37.97
15.37979 0.84377 334.7658 12.23
14.75746 0.729056 308.6119 3.61
10.32887 0.822597 365.558 29.56
4.586403 0.858281 380.2818 40.28
-2.858082 0.856537 370.6855 52.69
-9.654664 1.041806 420.4483 58.45
-14.35999 1.061729 388.8191 40.82
-14.45283 1.116487 363.8231 0.82
-10.3642 1.299959 393.8899 41.11
-3.507262 1.388228 418.5075 72.49
6.205815 1.297503 410.1915 94.81
9.582041 1.031259 376.8621 27.14
13.68078 0.861389 331.5524 27.45
14.301 0.731274 306.4113 3.59
10.90213 0.80898 359.1897 22.19
8.787496 0.849521 374.4044 14.40
3.91348 0.836031 375.1332 33.13
-0.612868 1.018013 443.4252 37.43
-5.269112 1.035765 435.2355 39.24
-6.902206 1.106644 434.4709 14.47
-8.629231 1.287425 489.8179 17.82
-4.554555 1.419392 503.1065 44.89
2.928693 1.348244 481.9402 77.06
9.185403 1.063069 411.7914 51.21
14.62133 0.883065 369.8377 37.16
18.77113 0.744482 337.9155 24.08
19.51893 0.8115 400.1988 4.80
16.26281 0.838194 438.9535 21.95
9.404574 0.812242 436.5056 45.51
-2.826723 0.962887 517.8223 98.82
-5.344296 1.023937 481.6954 20.70
-8.470524 1.09039 499.4573 27.46
-10.59698 1.274093 556.7274 21.73
-7.640242 1.439866 588.6923 33.31
-3.544168 1.374809 562.1706 43.83
2.85504 1.094494 454.0096 53.99
11.77399 0.916983 398.492 62.51
15.69136 0.756425 366.8539 23.15
17.05642 0.815862 423.2083 8.79
ronóstico 1 Jan 61 455.2398
ronóstico 2 Feb 61 454.9989
 ronóstico 3 Mar 61 555.8101
ronóstico 4 Apr 61 608.5149
ronóstico 5 May 61 666.6054
ronóstico 6 Jun 61 800.6426
Pronóstico 7 Jul 61 929.3737
ronóstico 8 Aug 61 910.8313
ronóstico 9 Sep 61 743.787
ronóstico 10 Oct 61 638.796
onóstico 11 Nov 61 539.8485
onóstico 12 Dec 61 596.1837
24.64
do el método de Winters, para pronosticar la demanda
que este se ajusta a la tendencias de la demanda real por
puede concluir que este método es el más acertado para
icar la demanda en esta situación, adempas el error es
vamente bajo en comparación con el método de Holt

nda real Vs pronóstico

106
66
71
76
81
86
91
96
101

111
116
121
126
131
136
141

a Real Pronóstico