Caso Simulación - Montecarlo

En un banco se tiene una cajera que atiende a los clientes vip

los que realizan determinadas operaciones con sus tarjetas
Las tarjetas que han usado en el úLtimo mes son las siguientes:
X1: Tipo de trajeta i
i =Visa, Mastercard, Diner, A. Express
TIPO FRECUENCIA p(x) P(x)
VISA 350 0.4828 0.4828
MASTERCARD 250 0.3448 0.8276
DINER 50 0.0690 0.8966
AMERICAN EXPRESS 75 0.1034 1.0000
725
LOS MONTOS UTILIZADOS EN ESTAS TRANSACCIONES FUERON LAS SIGUIENTES
VMIN VMAX FRECUENCIA Prob P(x)
50 500 500 0.6667 0.6667
500 1500 200 0.2667 0.9333
1500 3000 50 0.0667 1.0000
750
LA CAJERA DEMORA EN ATENDER UNOS 15 MINUTOS CON UNA DESVIACION ESTANDAR
DE 1.5 MINUTOS
HORIZONTE DE TIEMPO=1000 TRANSACCIONES O ATENCIONES
SE DESEA SABER:
1. LA CANTIDAD DE TRANSACCIONES POR TIPO DE TARJETA
2. EL MONTO PROMEDIO UTILIZADO X3:
3. TIEMPO PROMEDIO DE ATENCIÓN
t = μ + (z * σ)

MODELO DE SIMULACIÓN
X1 X2
NRO TRANSACCION NsAs 1 TIPO (X1) NsAs 2 MONTO UTIL
1 0.5449 MASTERCARD 0.9485 1500
2 0.1189 VISA 0.2537 1000
3 0.9716 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.7626 1500
4 0.3579 VISA 0.2941 1000
5 0.9264 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.0951 450
6 0.5747 MASTERCARD 0.6444 1500
7 0.1640 VISA 0.2941 1000
8 0.2488 VISA 0.4472 1000
9 0.3769 VISA 0.1998 1000
10 0.7115 MASTERCARD 0.9522 1500
11 0.9607 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.1579 1000
12 0.8349 DINER 0.7972 1500
13 0.9009 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.4472 1000
14 0.1865 VISA 0.3519 1000
15 0.3682 VISA 0.9232 1500
16 0.6326 MASTERCARD 0.6958 1500
17 0.8349 DINER 0.2643 1000
18 0.9079 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.5659 1500
19 0.5505 MASTERCARD 0.7236 1500
20 0.3873 VISA 0.4911 1000
21 0.2410 VISA 0.6386 1500
22 0.3488 VISA 0.4398 1000
23 0.4267 VISA 0.3062 1000
24 0.7662 MASTERCARD 0.9173 1500
25 0.2607 VISA 0.9681 1500
26 0.9446 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.8125 1500
27 0.8800 DINER 0.9650 1500
28 0.4333 VISA 0.9076 1500
29 0.9816 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.9612 1500
30 0.4716 VISA 0.6948 1500
31 0.8479 DINER 0.6913 1500
32 0.0096 VISA 0.5616 1500
33 0.6719 MASTERCARD 0.7333 1500
34 0.3481 VISA 0.2161 1000
35 0.9823 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.4235 1000
36 0.7992 MASTERCARD 0.2886 1000
37 0.4069 VISA 0.3907 1000
38 0.5287 MASTERCARD 0.4487 1000
39 0.4567 VISA 0.2905 1000
40 0.8056 MASTERCARD 0.7834 1500
41 0.7619 MASTERCARD 0.1177 450
42 0.9504 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.4679 1000
43 0.6673 MASTERCARD 0.2282 1000
44 0.8886 DINER 0.1239 450
45 0.8056 MASTERCARD 0.2218 1000
46 0.2425 VISA 0.7234 1500
47 0.9470 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.2920 1000
48 0.3709 VISA 0.6209 1500
49 0.8886 DINER 0.7088 1500
50 0.5035 MASTERCARD 0.8774 1500
51 0.0269 VISA 0.6552 1500
52 0.4998 MASTERCARD 0.9909 1500
53 0.3709 VISA 0.3480 1000
54 0.0545 VISA 0.4604 1000
55 0.9083 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.8162 1500
56 0.0330 VISA 0.6185 1500
57 0.5497 MASTERCARD 0.5855 1500
58 0.1949 VISA 0.5595 1500
59 0.0745 VISA 0.7167 1500
 60 0.1292 VISA 0.8737 1500
61 0.8333 DINER 0.4042 1000
62 0.0741 VISA 0.3772 1000
63 0.7126 MASTERCARD 0.5838 1500
64 0.4494 VISA 0.0968 450
65 0.5836 MASTERCARD 0.6827 1500
66 0.3355 VISA 0.1680 1000
67 0.1292 VISA 0.0062 450
68 0.5069 MASTERCARD 0.6146 1500
69 0.0741 VISA 0.5001 1500
70 0.0977 VISA 0.1165 450
71 0.4494 VISA 0.9555 1500
72 0.0890 VISA 0.6283 1500
73 0.3355 VISA 0.7348 1500
74 0.3776 VISA 0.9953 1500
75 0.8028 MASTERCARD 0.2274 1000
76 0.0722 VISA 0.7261 1500
77 0.4757 VISA 0.0180 450
78 0.9281 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.7016 1500
79 0.8295 DINER 0.7761 1500
80 0.0147 VISA 0.4169 1000
81 0.9279 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.2452 1000
82 0.1325 VISA 0.9273 1500
83 0.6180 MASTERCARD 0.8675 1500
84 0.0223 VISA 0.3987 1000
85 0.1278 VISA 0.3425 1000
86 0.6951 MASTERCARD 0.2074 1000
87 0.4878 MASTERCARD 0.4009 1000
88 0.9625 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.8165 1500
89 0.1872 VISA 0.4636 1000
90 0.0606 VISA 0.9309 1500
91 0.5582 MASTERCARD 0.6126 1500
92 0.2664 VISA 0.1361 450
93 0.0392 VISA 0.5222 1500
94 0.9441 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.8314 1500
95 0.9625 AMERICAN EXPRESS 0.7529 1500
96 0.2491 VISA 0.8416 1500
97 0.1321 VISA 0.7883 1500
98 0.6172 MASTERCARD 0.3331 1000
99 0.2588 VISA 0.5380 1500
100 0.5804 MASTERCARD 0.5588 1500
50
26
8 tipo
16 VISA
MASTERCARD
DINER
AMERICAN EXPR
Montecarlo X1
Pmin Pmax X
0.0000 0.4828 VISA
0.4828 0.8276 MASTERCARD
0.8276 0.8966 DINER
0.8966 1.0000 AMERICAN EXPRESS

Montecarlo X2
R.min R.max VMIN V.max-V.min Prob P(x)
0.0000 0.6667 50 450 0.1525 0.1525
0.6667 0.9333 500 1000 0.3390 0.4915
0.9333 1.0000 1500 1500 0.5085 1.0000
2950

t = μ + (z * σ)
=DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0.1515)

X3
NsAs 3 Z TIEMPO ATENC Prom (X3)Prom(x2)
0.0903 -1.339 13.0 13.0 1500.0
0.2231 -0.762 13.9 13.4 1250.0
0.6171 0.298 15.4 14.1 1333.3
0.2074 -0.815 13.8 14.0 1250.0
0.2176 -0.780 13.8 14.0 1090.0
0.9091 1.335 17.0 14.5 1158.3
0.7425 0.651 16.0 14.7 1135.7
0.9933 2.474 18.7 15.2 1118.8
0.4948 -0.013 15.0 15.2 1105.6
0.3433 -0.404 14.4 15.1 1145.0
0.5747 0.188 15.3 15.1 1131.8
0.4219 -0.197 14.7 15.1 1162.5
0.8459 1.019 16.5 15.2 1150.0
0.1280 -1.136 13.3 15.1 1139.3
0.5035 0.009 15.0 15.1 1163.3
0.4683 -0.080 14.9 15.0 1184.4
0.1959 -0.856 13.7 15.0 1173.5
0.1084 -1.235 13.1 14.9 1191.7
0.7822 0.780 16.2 14.9 1207.9
0.4485 -0.129 14.8 14.9 1197.5
0.7364 0.632 15.9 15.0 1211.9
0.9831 2.123 18.2 15.1 1202.3
0.3689 -0.335 14.5 15.1 1193.5
0.0309 -1.867 12.2 15.0 1206.3
0.3737 -0.322 14.5 15.0 1218.0
0.9232 1.427 17.1 15.0 1228.8
0.1930 -0.867 13.7 15.0 1238.9
0.4619 -0.096 14.9 15.0 1248.2
0.0340 -1.825 12.3 14.9 1256.9
0.5470 0.118 15.2 14.9 1265.0
0.4678 -0.081 14.9 14.9 1272.6
0.7281 0.607 15.9 14.9 1279.7
0.0098 -2.335 11.5 14.8 1286.4
0.4360 -0.161 14.8 14.8 1277.9
0.9032 1.300 17.0 14.9 1270.0
0.5290 0.073 15.1 14.9 1262.5
0.4826 -0.044 14.9 14.9 1255.4
0.7722 0.746 16.1 14.9 1248.7
0.5139 0.035 15.1 14.9 1242.3
0.2282 -0.745 13.9 14.9 1248.8
0.3350 -0.426 14.4 14.9 1229.3
0.9568 1.715 17.6 15.0 1223.8
0.3766 -0.315 14.5 14.9 1218.6
0.3451 -0.399 14.4 14.9 1201.1
0.3760 -0.316 14.5 14.9 1196.7
0.7023 0.531 15.8 14.9 1203.3
0.1369 -1.095 13.4 14.9 1198.9
0.2253 -0.755 13.9 14.9 1205.2
0.6749 0.454 15.7 14.9 1211.2
0.0311 -1.864 12.2 14.8 1217.0
0.4285 -0.180 14.7 14.8 1222.5
0.5372 0.093 15.1 14.9 1227.9
0.0995 -1.284 13.1 14.8 1223.6
0.2119 -0.800 13.8 14.8 1219.4
0.8646 1.101 16.7 14.8 1224.5
0.8999 1.281 16.9 14.9 1229.5
0.4851 -0.037 14.9 14.9 1234.2
0.8085 0.873 16.3 14.9 1238.8
0.3725 -0.325 14.5 14.9 1243.2
0.9167 1.383 17.1 14.9 1247.5
0.0416 -1.733 12.4 14.9 1243.4
0.0790 -1.411 12.9 14.9 1239.5
0.0259 -1.944 12.1 14.8 1243.7
0.0990 -1.287 13.1 14.8 1231.3
0.5540 0.136 15.2 14.8 1235.4
0.2458 -0.688 14.0 14.8 1231.8
0.0645 -1.518 12.7 14.7 1220.1
0.7914 0.811 16.2 14.8 1224.3
0.5743 0.187 15.3 14.8 1228.3
0.6515 0.389 15.6 14.8 1217.1
0.1379 -1.090 13.4 14.8 1221.1
0.6270 0.324 15.5 14.8 1225.0
0.8236 0.929 16.4 14.8 1228.8
0.6262 0.322 15.5 14.8 1232.4
0.1914 -0.873 13.7 14.8 1229.3
0.3448 -0.399 14.4 14.8 1232.9
0.6113 0.283 15.4 14.8 1222.7
0.2823 -0.576 14.1 14.8 1226.3
0.6784 0.463 15.7 14.8 1229.7
0.7960 0.827 16.2 14.8 1226.9
0.1073 -1.241 13.1 14.8 1224.1
0.2811 -0.580 14.1 14.8 1227.4
0.7141 0.565 15.8 14.8 1230.7
0.7714 0.743 16.1 14.8 1228.0
0.9602 1.753 17.6 14.8 1225.3
0.2278 -0.746 13.9 14.8 1222.7
0.6539 0.396 15.6 14.8 1220.1
0.6791 0.465 15.7 14.9 1223.3
0.9262 1.448 17.2 14.9 1220.8
0.5001 0.000 15.0 14.9 1223.9
0.2678 -0.619 14.1 14.9 1226.9
0.4027 -0.246 14.6 14.9 1218.5
0.5873 0.221 15.3 14.9 1221.5
0.7449 0.659 16.0 14.9 1224.5
0.7444 0.657 16.0 14.9 1227.4
0.2716 -0.608 14.1 14.9 1230.2
0.9043 1.306 17.0 14.9 1233.0
0.3852 -0.292 14.6 14.9 1230.6
0.4539 -0.116 14.8 14.9 1233.3
0.8522 1.046 16.6 14.9 1236.0

n° Veces n° Veces
46 50
33 26
10 8
11 16
Montecarlo X2
R.min R.max V.max-V.min
0.0000 0.1525 450
0.1525 0.4915 1000
0.4915 1.0000 1500

Tiempo Promedio de Atención (X1)

15.5

15.0

14.5

14.0

13.5

13.0

12.5

12.0

11.5
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
 Prom(x2)
1600.0

1400.0

1200.0

1000.0

800.0

600.0

400.0

200.0

0.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97