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1. You are the author of what promises to be a successful novel. You have the option to
either publish the novel yourself or through a publisher. The publisher is offering you
$20,000 for signing the contract. If the novel is successful, it will sell 200,000 copies. Else,
it will sell 10,000 copies only. The publisher pays a $1 royalty per copy. A market survey
indicates that there is a 70% chance that the novel will be successful. If you undertake
publishing, you will incur an initial cost of $90,000 for printing and marketing, but each
copy sold will net you $2.
a. Based on the given information, would you accept the publisher’s offer or publish the
novel yourself?
b. Suppose that you contract a literary agent to conduct a survey concerning the potential
success of the novel. From past experience, the agent advises you that when a novel is
successful, the survey will predict the wrong outcome 20% of the time. When the novel is
not successful, the survey will give the correct prediction 85% of the time. How would this
information affect your decision?
2. AFC is about to launch its new Wings ‘N Things fast food nationally. The research
department is convinced that Wings ’N Things will be a great success and wants to
introduce it immediately in all AFC outlets without advertising. The marketing department
sees “things" differently and wants to unleash an intensive advertising campaign. The
advertising campaign will cost $120,000 and if successful will produce $950,000
revenue. If the campaign is unsuccessful (and there is a 25% chance it won’t be), the
revenue is estimated at only $200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is
estimated at $400,000 with probability 0.7 if customers are receptive to the new product
and $200,000 with probability 0.3 if they are not.
Comenzaremos con los datos suministrados a priori, teniendo en cuenta que tenemos
probabilidades para la instancia con campaña y también para la de sin campaña.
b. What course of action should AFC follow in launching the new product?
Teniendo en cuenta que tenemos dos escenarios posibles para la toma de decisiones, cada
uno con probabilidades de éxito y ganancias distintas, es importante tomar una decisión que
además de correcta tenga una alta probabilidad de éxito o por lo menos más que el otro
escenario, en este orden de ideas, analizando y observando detenidamente nuestro árbol de
decisiones para esta situación, se evidencia que es mucho más viable realizar la campaña
publicitaria que propone el departamento de Marketing, teniendo así un probabilidad de
ganancias de un cerca del doble que si se lanzara el producto sin más como lo propone el
departamento de investigación.
Por ello la decisión que AFC debería tomar seria realizar la campaña publicitaria,
además teniendo en cuenta que tendrá un 75% de probabilidad de éxito un 5% más
que sin campaña.