Año

2016
Producción de Res Nacional
2017
2018
Fuente: https://estadisticas.fedegan.org.co/DOC/drawStatWidgetFilter.jsp?pIdStat=58&pIndexX=3

Año
2016
Producción de Res en el Meta
2017
2018

Año
2016
Producción de Res en La Granja de 2017
Juan 2018

Historico de Producción de
Periodo Mes
1 Jan-16
2 Feb-16
3 Mar-16
4 Apr-16
5 May-16
6 Jun-16
7 Jul-16
8 Aug-16
9 Sep-16
10 Oct-16
11 Nov-16
12 Dec-16
13 Jan-17
14 Feb-17
15 Mar-17
16 Apr-17
17 May-17
18 Jun-17
19 Jul-17
20 Aug-17
21 Sep-17
22 Oct-17
23 Nov-17
24 Dec-17
25 Jan-18
26 Feb-18
27 Mar-18
28 Apr-18
 29 May-18
30 Jun-18
31 Jul-18
32 Aug-18
33 Sep-18
34 Oct-18
35 Nov-18
36 Dec-18

Año
2016
Producción de Cerdo Nacional
2017
2018
Fuente: https://www.3tres3.com/articulos/2018-ano-de-record-para-el-sector-porcino-colombiano_40881/

Año
2016
Producción de Cerdo en el Meta
2017
2018

Año
Producción de Cerdo en La Granja de 2016
Juan 2017
2018

Historico de Producción de
Periodo Mes
1 Jan-16
2 Feb-16
3 Mar-16
4 Apr-16
5 May-16
6 Jun-16
7 Jul-16
8 Aug-16
9 Sep-16
10 Oct-16
11 Nov-16
12 Dec-16
13 Jan-17
14 Feb-17
15 Mar-17
16 Apr-17
17 May-17
18 Jun-17
19 Jul-17
 20 Aug-17
21 Sep-17
22 Oct-17
23 Nov-17
24 Dec-17
25 Jan-18
26 Feb-18
27 Mar-18
28 Apr-18
29 May-18
30 Jun-18
31 Jul-18
32 Aug-18
33 Sep-18
34 Oct-18
35 Nov-18
36 Dec-18

Año
2016
Producción de Pollo Nacional
2017
2018
Fuente: https://fenavi.org/informacion-estadistica/

Año
2016
Producción de Pollo en el Meta
2017
2018

Año
Producción de Pollo en La Granja de 2016
Juan 2017
2018

Historico de Producción de
Periodo Mes
1 Jan-16
2 Feb-16
3 Mar-16
4 Apr-16
5 May-16
6 Jun-16
7 Jul-16
8 Aug-16
 9 Sep-16
10 Oct-16
11 Nov-16
12 Dec-16
13 Jan-17
14 Feb-17
15 Mar-17
16 Apr-17
17 May-17
18 Jun-17
19 Jul-17
20 Aug-17
21 Sep-17
22 Oct-17
23 Nov-17
24 Dec-17
25 Jan-18
26 Feb-18
27 Mar-18
28 Apr-18
29 May-18
30 Jun-18
31 Jul-18
32 Aug-18
33 Sep-18
34 Oct-18
35 Nov-18
36 Dec-18
 Toneladas
910,052
905,582
935,025

Toneladas
318,518
316,954
327,259

Toneladas
47,778
47,543
49,089

Historico de Producción de Res 2016 a 2018

Proporción por demanda
0.1257
0.1115
0.0248
0.0637
0.1735
0.0354
0.1611
0.0354
0.0637
0.0973
0.0513
0.0566
0.0447
0.0592
0.0216
0.0981
0.1443
0.1025
0.1342
0.1414
0.0505
0.0924
0.0433
0.0678
0.0305
0.0962
0.0560
0.1145
 0.1194
0.1108
0.0195
0.0999
0.1121
0.1206
0.0341
0.0865

Toneladas
356,354
371,347
409,798

Toneladas
124,724
129,971
143,429

Toneladas
18,709
19,496
21,514

Historico de Producción de Cerdo 2016 a 2018

Proporción por demanda
0.0256
0.0490
0.1063
0.1198
0.0432
0.1340
0.1149
0.0726
0.0704
0.0726
0.1322
0.0592
0.1496
0.0298
0.0790
0.1580
0.0718
0.0774
0.0284
 0.0478
0.0480
0.1441
0.1236
0.0424
0.0241
0.1408
0.0566
0.1548
0.0504
0.1527
0.0805
0.0791
0.1371
0.0791
0.0704
0.1149

Toneladas
1,478,924
1,563,569
1,629,648

Toneladas
517,623
547,249
570,377

Toneladas
77,644
82,087
85,557

Historico de Producción de Pollo 2016 a 2018

Proporción por demanda
0.0713
0.0772
0.0846
0.0861
0.0817
0.0861
0.0891
0.0757
0.0802
0.0854
0.0891
0.0935
0.0729
0.0776
0.0752
0.0799
0.0823
0.0834
0.0858
0.0846
0.0893
0.0905
0.0905
0.0881
0.0705
0.0723
0.0796
0.0814
0.0832
0.0814
0.0850
0.0850
0.0868
0.0895
0.0904
0.0949
2018
Histórico Demanda (Tn)
6,003.93
5,327.43
1,183.87
3,044.24
8,287.11
1,691.25
7,695.17
1,691.25
3,044.24
4,650.93
2,452.31
2,706.00
2,126.75
2,812.79
1,029.07
4,665.12
6,860.47
4,870.93
6,380.24
6,723.26
2,401.16
4,390.70
2,058.14
3,224.42
1,494.79
4,723.53
2,750.41
5,620.40
 5,859.57
5,441.03
956.66
4,902.90
5,500.82
5,919.36
1,674.16
4,245.20

a 2018
Histórico Demanda (Tn)
480
916
1,989
2,242
809
2,507
2,149
1,359
1,317
1,359
2,474
1,108
2,917
582
1,540
3,081
1,400
1,509
553
 932
936
2,809
2,409
827
519
3,030
1,219
3,329
1,084
3,285
1,732
1,702
2,949
1,702
1,515
2,471

a 2018
Histórico Demanda (Tn)
5,533.61
5,994.75
6,571.17
6,686.45
6,340.60
6,686.45
6,917.02
5,879.46
6,225.31
6,628.81
6,917.02
7,262.87
5,980.51
6,366.35
6,173.43
6,559.27
6,752.19
6,848.65
7,041.57
6,945.11
7,330.95
7,427.41
7,427.41
7,234.49
6,033.82
6,188.54
6,807.39
6,962.10
7,116.82
6,962.10
7,271.53
7,271.53
7,426.24
7,658.31
7,735.67
8,122.45
 RES Suavización Exponencial
Simple
Promedio Móvil

ME 162.79 -23.90
MAD 1,413.98 1,398.49
MAPE 58.55% 53.71%
MSE 3,729,876.80 3,927,808.34
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 1 1,931.29 1,981.87
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 2 203.49 -29.87

Prónostico 1: Suavización Exponencial Simple

Histórico
Periodo Demanda Ft et |et| e^2
(Tn)
Alfa (α) 1 6,003.93 6,003.93 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.25 2 5,327.43 6,003.93 676.50 676.50 457,650.67
3 1,183.87 5,834.80 4,650.93 4650.93 ###
4 3,044.24 4,672.07 1,627.83 1627.83 2,649,815.25
5 8,287.11 4,265.11 -4,022.00 4022.00 ###
6 1,691.25 5,270.61 3,579.37 3579.37 ###
7 7,695.17 4,375.77 -3,319.40 3319.40 ###
8 1,691.25 5,205.62 3,514.38 3514.38 ###
9 3,044.24 4,327.03 1,282.78 1282.78 1,645,533.91
10 4,650.93 4,006.33 -644.60 644.60 415,505.27
11 2,452.31 4,167.48 1,715.17 1715.17 2,941,820.02
12 2,706.00 3,738.69 1,032.69 1032.69 1,066,454.91
13 2,126.75 3,480.52 1,353.77 1353.77 1,832,691.86
14 2,812.79 3,142.07 329.28 329.28 108,425.42
15 1,029.07 3,059.75 2,030.68 2030.68 4,123,670.35
16 4,665.12 2,552.08 -2,113.04 2113.04 4,464,926.47
17 6,860.47 3,080.34 -3,780.13 3780.13 ###
 18 4,870.93 4,025.37 -845.56 845.56 714,971.67
19 6,380.24 4,236.76 -2,143.47 2143.47 4,594,477.85
20 6,723.26 4,772.63 -1,950.63 1950.63 3,804,951.43
21 2,401.16 5,260.29 2,859.12 2859.12 8,174,593.23
22 4,390.70 4,545.51 154.81 154.81 23,965.27
23 2,058.14 4,506.81 2,448.67 2448.67 5,995,960.78
24 3,224.42 3,894.64 670.22 670.22 449,193.48
25 1,494.79 3,727.08 2,232.30 2232.30 4,983,153.31
26 4,723.53 3,169.01 -1,554.52 1554.52 2,416,523.37
27 2,750.41 3,557.64 807.23 807.23 651,622.41
28 5,620.40 3,355.83 -2,264.57 2264.57 5,128,268.14
29 5,859.57 3,921.97 -1,937.59 1937.59 3,754,262.53
30 5,441.03 4,406.37 -1,034.65 1034.65 1,070,507.93
31 956.66 4,665.04 3,708.37 3708.37 ###
32 4,902.90 3,737.94 -1,164.96 1164.96 1,357,130.94
33 5,500.82 4,029.18 -1,471.63 1471.63 2,165,708.43
34 5,919.36 4,397.09 -1,522.27 1522.27 2,317,294.94
35 1,674.16 4,777.66 3,103.50 3103.50 9,631,687.01
36 4,245.20 4,001.78 -243.41 243.41 59,249.44
37 4,001.78 4,062.64 60.85 60.85 3,703.09
38 4,062.64 4,047.42 -15.21 15.21 231.44
39 4,047.42 4,051.23 3.80 3.80 14.47
40 4,051.23 4,050.28 -0.95 0.95 0.90
41 4,050.28 4,050.51 0.24 0.24 0.06
42 4,050.51 4,050.45 -0.06 0.06 0.00
43 4,050.45 4,050.47 0.01 0.01 0.00
44 4,050.47 4,050.47 0.00 0.00 0.00
45 4,050.47 4,050.47 0.00 0.00 0.00
46 4,050.47 4,050.47 0.00 0.00 0.00
47 4,050.47 4,050.47 0.00 0.00 0.00
48 4,050.47 4,050.47 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pronostico 2: Promedio Móvil

Histórico
Periodo Demanda Ft et |et| e^2
(Tn)
1 6,003.93
N 2 5,327.43
3 3 1,183.87
4 3,044.24 4,171.74 1,127.50 1,127.50 1,271,251.86
5 8,287.11 3,185.18 -5,101.93 5,101.93 ###
6 1,691.25 4,171.74 2,480.50 2,480.50 6,152,859.00
 7 7,695.17 4,340.87 -3,354.31 3,354.31 ###
8 1,691.25 5,891.18 4,199.93 4,199.93 ###
9 3,044.24 3,692.56 648.31 648.31 420,307.65
10 4,650.93 4,143.56 -507.37 507.37 257,428.50
11 2,452.31 3,128.81 676.50 676.50 457,650.67
12 2,706.00 3,382.49 676.50 676.50 457,650.67
13 2,126.75 3,269.74 1,143.00 1,143.00 1,306,446.14
14 2,812.79 2,428.35 -384.44 384.44 147,796.30
15 1,029.07 2,548.51 1,519.44 1,519.44 2,308,700.09
16 4,665.12 1,989.54 -2,675.58 2,675.58 7,158,745.36
17 6,860.47 2,835.66 -4,024.81 4,024.81 ###
18 4,870.93 4,184.89 -686.05 686.05 470,660.44
19 6,380.24 5,465.51 -914.73 914.73 836,729.68
20 6,723.26 6,037.21 -686.05 686.05 470,660.44
21 2,401.16 5,991.48 3,590.31 3,590.31 ###
22 4,390.70 5,168.22 777.52 777.52 604,537.19
23 2,058.14 4,505.04 2,446.90 2,446.90 5,987,323.81
24 3,224.42 2,950.00 -274.42 274.42 75,305.67
25 1,494.79 3,224.42 1,729.63 1,729.63 2,991,632.15
26 4,723.53 2,259.12 -2,464.41 2,464.41 6,073,323.24
27 2,750.41 3,147.58 397.17 397.17 157,744.04
28 5,620.40 2,989.57 -2,630.83 2,630.83 6,921,242.90
29 5,859.57 4,364.78 -1,494.79 1,494.79 2,234,388.85
30 5,441.03 4,743.46 -697.57 697.57 486,600.24
31 956.66 5,640.33 4,683.67 4,683.67 ###
32 4,902.90 4,085.75 -817.15 817.15 667,734.69
33 5,500.82 3,766.86 -1,733.95 1,733.95 3,006,593.64
34 5,919.36 3,786.79 -2,132.56 2,132.56 4,547,825.41
35 1,674.16 5,441.03 3,766.86 3,766.86 ###
36 4,245.20 4,364.78 119.58 119.58 14,300.09
37 4,364.78 3,946.24 -418.54 418.54 175,176.09
38 3,946.24 3,428.05 -518.19 518.19 268,523.89
39 3,428.05 4,185.40 757.36 757.36 573,592.44
40 4,185.40 3,913.02 -272.38 272.38 74,192.74
41 3,913.02 3,853.23 -59.79 59.79 3,575.02
42 3,853.23 3,842.16 -11.07 11.07 122.60
43 3,842.16 3,983.88 141.73 141.73 20,086.82
44 3,983.88 3,869.47 -114.42 114.42 13,090.98
45 3,869.47 3,893.09 23.62 23.62 557.97
46 3,893.09 3,898.50 5.41 5.41 29.30
47 3,898.50 3,915.48 16.98 16.98 288.25
48 3,915.48 3,887.02 -28.46 28.46 810.00
 Pronostico 3: Promedio Ponderado

Histórico
Periodo Demanda Ft et |et| e^2
(Tn)
W1 1 6,003.93
0.10 2 5,327.43
3 1,183.87
W2 4 3,044.24 3,323.30 279.06 279.06 77,872.12
0.40 5 8,287.11 2,528.41 -5,758.70 5,758.70 ###
6 1,691.25 5,479.64 3,788.39 3,788.39 ###
W3 7 7,695.17 4,464.89 -3,230.28 3,230.28 ###
0.50 8 1,691.25 5,352.80 3,661.55 3,661.55 ###
9 3,044.24 4,092.82 1,048.57 1,048.57 1,099,505.73
10 4,650.93 2,968.14 -1,682.79 1,682.79 2,831,785.03
11 2,452.31 3,712.29 1,259.98 1,259.98 1,587,547.27
12 2,706.00 3,390.95 684.96 684.96 469,163.44
13 2,126.75 2,799.01 672.27 672.27 451,944.68
14 2,812.79 2,391.00 -421.79 421.79 177,907.49
15 1,029.07 2,527.69 1,498.62 1,498.62 2,245,872.72
16 4,665.12 1,852.33 -2,812.79 2,812.79 7,911,802.07
17 6,860.47 3,025.47 -3,835.00 3,835.00 ###
18 4,870.93 5,399.19 528.26 528.26 279,054.58
19 6,380.24 5,646.17 -734.07 734.07 538,859.14
20 6,723.26 5,824.54 -898.72 898.72 807,700.39
21 2,401.16 6,400.82 3,999.65 3,999.65 ###
22 4,390.70 4,527.91 137.21 137.21 18,826.42
23 2,058.14 3,828.14 1,770.00 1,770.00 3,132,904.18
24 3,224.42 3,025.47 -198.95 198.95 39,582.54
25 1,494.79 2,874.54 1,379.75 1,379.75 1,903,708.90
26 4,723.53 2,242.98 -2,480.55 2,480.55 6,153,136.37
27 2,750.41 3,282.12 531.71 531.71 282,717.96
28 5,620.40 3,414.09 -2,206.31 2,206.31 4,867,785.93
29 5,859.57 4,382.72 -1,476.85 1,476.85 2,181,085.27
30 5,441.03 5,452.98 11.96 11.96 143.00
31 956.66 5,626.38 4,669.72 4,669.72 ###
32 4,902.90 3,240.70 -1,662.20 1,662.20 2,762,920.13
33 5,500.82 3,378.22 -2,122.60 2,122.60 4,505,421.68
34 5,919.36 4,807.24 -1,112.12 1,112.12 1,236,814.67
35 1,674.16 5,650.30 3,976.13 3,976.13 ###
36 4,245.20 3,754.91 -490.29 490.29 240,384.49
37 3,754.91 3,384.20 -370.71 370.71 137,423.85
38 3,384.20 3,742.95 358.75 358.75 128,700.80
39 3,742.95 3,618.58 -124.37 124.37 15,466.98
40 3,618.58 3,600.64 -17.94 17.94 321.75
41 3,600.64 3,644.89 44.25 44.25 1,957.68
42 3,644.89 3,622.05 -22.84 22.84 521.68
43 3,622.05 3,624.56 2.51 2.51 6.31
44 3,624.56 3,629.04 4.48 4.48 20.11
45 3,629.04 3,625.59 -3.46 3.46 11.94
46 3,625.59 3,626.55 0.96 0.96 0.93
47 3,626.55 3,626.87 0.32 0.32 0.10
48 3,626.87 3,626.42 -0.45 0.45 0.20
 Promedio Ponderado

-30.10
1,377.17
53.29%
4,128,120.31
2,031.78
-37.63

Histórico Demanda de Res en La Granja de Juan (2

8,500
8,000
7,500
7,000
e 6,500
6,000
5,500
|et|/dt 5,000
Toneladas

4,500
0% 4,000
3,500
13%
3,000
393%
2,500
53%
2,000
49%
1,500
212% 1,000
43% 500
208% 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2
42%
14% Periodos
70%
38%
64%
12%
197%
45%
55%
 17%
34%
29%
119%
4%
119%
21%
149%
33%
29%
40%
33%
19%
388%
24%
27%
26%
185%
6%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%

|et|/dt

37%
62%
147%
 44%
248%
21%
11%
28%
25%
54%
14%
148%
57%
59%
14%
14%
10%
150%
18%
119%
9%
116%
52%
14%
47%
26%
13%
490%
17%
32%
36%
225%
3%
10%
13%
22%
7%
2%
0%
4%
3%
1%
0%
0%
1%
|et|/dt

9%
69%
224%
42%
217%
34%
36%
51%
25%
32%
15%
146%
60%
56%
11%
12%
13%
167%
3%
86%
6%
92%
53%
19%
39%
25%
0%
488%
34%
39%
19%
238%
12%
10%
11%
3%
0%
1%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
en La Granja de Juan (2016 a 2018)

16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Periodos
 CERDO Suavización Exponencial
Doble
Regresión Lineal

ME 11.77 0.00
MAD 876.43 736.81
MAPE 66% 60%
MSE 968,500.36 689,188.51
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 1 984.12 830.17
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 2 14.72 0.00

Prónostico 1: Suavización Exponencial Doble

Histórico
Periodo Demanda St Gt Ft et
(Tn)
Alfa (α) 0 1,381.07 19.55
0.25 1 479.56 1,170.36 -61.04 1,400.62 921.06
2 916.32 1,061.07 -77.93 1,109.32 192.99
Beta (β) 3 1,989.44 1,234.72 10.12 983.14 -1,006.30
0.35 4 2,241.54 1,494.01 97.33 1,244.84 -996.70
5 808.63 1,395.67 28.85 1,591.35 782.72
m 6 2,507.21 1,695.19 123.58 1,424.52 -1,082.69
19.55 7 2,149.26 1,901.39 152.50 1,818.77 -330.49
8 1,358.83 1,880.13 91.68 2,053.89 695.06
b 9 1,317.30 1,808.18 34.41 1,971.81 654.51
1381.07 10 1,358.83 1,721.65 -7.92 1,842.59 483.76
11 2,473.87 1,903.77 58.59 1,713.74 -760.13
12 1,107.79 1,748.72 -16.18 1,962.36 854.57
13 2,916.77 2,028.60 87.44 1,732.54 -1,184.23
14 581.94 1,732.52 -46.79 2,116.04 1,534.09
15 1,540.20 1,649.34 -59.53 1,685.72 145.53
16 3,081.20 1,962.66 70.97 1,589.81 -1,491.39
 17 1,399.71 1,875.15 15.50 2,033.63 633.93
18 1,508.67 1,795.15 -17.92 1,890.65 381.98
19 553.21 1,471.23 -125.02 1,777.23 1,224.03
20 932.37 1,242.74 -161.24 1,346.20 413.83
21 935.58 1,045.02 -174.00 1,081.51 145.93
22 2,809.33 1,355.60 -4.40 871.02 -1,938.31
23 2,409.25 1,615.71 88.18 1,351.20 -1,058.05
24 827.50 1,484.79 11.49 1,703.89 876.39
25 518.98 1,251.96 -74.02 1,496.28 977.31
26 3,029.75 1,640.89 88.01 1,177.94 -1,851.81
27 1,218.65 1,601.34 43.37 1,728.90 510.25
28 3,329.37 2,065.87 190.77 1,644.71 -1,684.66
29 1,084.36 1,963.58 88.20 2,256.65 1,172.29
30 3,284.61 2,359.98 196.07 2,051.78 -1,232.83
31 1,732.22 2,350.10 123.99 2,556.06 823.84
32 1,701.51 2,280.94 56.39 2,474.08 772.57
33 2,949.02 2,490.25 109.91 2,337.33 -611.70
34 1,701.51 2,375.50 31.28 2,600.16 898.65
35 1,514.51 2,183.71 -46.79 2,406.78 892.27
36 2,471.37 2,220.53 -17.53 2,136.92 -334.45
37 2,203.00
38 2,185.47
39 2,167.94
40 2,150.41
41 2,132.88
42 2,115.35
43 2,097.82
44 2,080.29
45 2,062.76
46 2,045.23
47 2,027.70
48 2,010.17

Pronóstico 2: Regresión Lineal

Histórico
Periodo Demanda Ft et |et| e^2
(Tn)
m 1 479.56 1,400.62 921.06 921.06 848,353.56
19.55 2 916.32 1,420.17 503.85 503.85 253,865.67
3 1,989.44 1,439.73 -549.71 549.71 302,183.58
b 4 2,241.54 1,459.28 -782.26 782.26 611,932.31
1,381.07 5 808.63 1,478.83 670.20 670.20 449,167.81
6 2,507.21 1,498.38 -1,008.83 1,008.83 ###
 7 2,149.26 1,517.93 -631.32 631.32 398,570.96
8 1,358.83 1,537.49 178.65 178.65 31,917.17
9 1,317.30 1,557.04 239.74 239.74 57,476.06
10 1,358.83 1,576.59 217.76 217.76 47,418.44
11 2,473.87 1,596.14 -877.73 877.73 770,401.97
12 1,107.79 1,615.69 507.90 507.90 257,965.56
13 2,916.77 1,635.25 -1,281.53 1,281.53 ###
14 581.94 1,654.80 1,072.85 1,072.85 ###
15 1,540.20 1,674.35 134.16 134.16 17,997.63
16 3,081.20 1,693.90 -1,387.30 1,387.30 ###
17 1,399.71 1,713.45 313.75 313.75 98,438.30
18 1,508.67 1,733.01 224.34 224.34 50,328.29
19 553.21 1,752.56 1,199.35 1,199.35 ###
20 932.37 1,772.11 839.74 839.74 705,166.92
21 935.58 1,791.66 856.09 856.09 732,883.78
22 2,809.33 1,811.21 -998.12 998.12 996,238.24
23 2,409.25 1,830.77 -578.48 578.48 334,638.11
24 827.50 1,850.32 1,022.82 1,022.82 ###
25 518.98 1,869.87 1,350.89 1,350.89 ###
26 3,029.75 1,889.42 -1,140.33 1,140.33 ###
27 1,218.65 1,908.97 690.32 690.32 476,542.39
28 3,329.37 1,928.53 -1,400.84 1,400.84 ###
29 1,084.36 1,948.08 863.72 863.72 746,005.69
30 3,284.61 1,967.63 -1,316.98 1,316.98 ###
31 1,732.22 1,987.18 254.97 254.97 65,008.14
32 1,701.51 2,006.73 305.22 305.22 93,160.05
33 2,949.02 2,026.29 -922.74 922.74 851,445.43
34 1,701.51 2,045.84 344.33 344.33 118,559.91
35 1,514.51 2,065.39 550.88 550.88 303,468.54
36 2,471.37 2,084.94 -386.43 386.43 149,326.76
37 2,104.49
38 2,124.05
39 2,143.60
40 2,163.15
41 2,182.70
42 2,202.25
43 2,221.81
44 2,241.36
45 2,260.91
46 2,280.46
47 2,300.01
48 2,319.57
 Histórico Demanda de Cerdo en La Gran
4,000
3,800
3,600
3,400
3,200
3,000
2,800
2,600
2,400

Toneladas
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Periodos

nencial Doble

|et| e^2 |et|/dt

921.06 848,353.56 192%

192.99 37,246.19 21%
1006.30 1,012,636.23 51%
996.70 993,413.04 44%
782.72 612,647.13 97%
1082.69 1,172,223.07 43%
330.49 109,222.11 15%
695.06 483,109.75 51%
654.51 428,388.55 50%
483.76 234,025.64 36%
760.13 577,798.41 31%
854.57 730,295.52 77%
1184.23 1,402,408.69 41%
1534.09 2,353,445.70 264%
145.53 21,178.07 9%
1491.39 2,224,245.65 48%
 633.93 401,860.95 45%
381.98 145,911.73 25%
1224.03 1,498,242.92 221%
413.83 171,257.38 44%
145.93 21,296.00 16%
1938.31 3,757,050.04 69%
1058.05 1,119,467.67 44%
876.39 768,053.61 106%
977.31 955,128.24 188%
1851.81 3,429,218.35 61%
510.25 260,353.68 42%
1684.66 2,838,094.29 51%
1172.29 1,374,252.31 108%
1232.83 1,519,871.91 38%
823.84 678,712.27 48%
772.57 596,862.18 45%
611.70 374,174.98 21%
898.65 807,567.42 53%
892.27 796,139.64 59%
334.45 111,860.13 14%

|et|/dt

192%
55%
28%
35%
83%
40%
 29%
13%
18%
16%
35%
46%
44%
184%
9%
45%
22%
15%
217%
90%
92%
36%
24%
124%
260%
38%
57%
42%
80%
40%
15%
18%
31%
20%
36%
16%
da de Cerdo en La Granja de Juan (2016 a 2018)

11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Periodos
 POLLO Suavización Exponencial
Triple
Suavización Exponencial
Doble
ME -25.45 -39.96
MAD 256.02 382.36
MAPE 3.84% 5.76%
MSE 102,607.20 227,045.52
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 1 320.32 476.49
DESVIACIÓN ESTANDAR 2 -31.82 -49.95

Prónostico 1: Suavización Exponencial Triple

Histórico
Periodo t Demanda St Gt Ct
(Tn)
Alfa (α) -11 0.89
0.15 -10 0.93
-9 0.98
Beta (β) -8 1.00
0.25 -7 1.00
-6 1.01
Gamma (γ) -5 1.04
0.25 -4 0.97
-3 1.01
N -2 1.04
12 -1 1.05
0 6,106.68 38.21 1.07
m 1 1 5,533.61 6,053.20 15.29 0.89
3 2 2 5,994.75 6,057.42 12.52 0.95
3 3 6,571.17 6,145.13 31.32 1.00
4 4 6,686.45 6,252.94 50.44 1.02
5 5 6,340.60 6,308.97 51.84 1.00
 6 6 6,686.45 6,409.65 64.05 1.02
7 7 6,917.02 6,540.20 80.67 1.04
8 8 5,879.46 6,509.66 52.87 0.96
9 9 6,225.31 6,511.95 40.22 1.00
10 10 6,628.81 6,563.67 43.10 1.03
11 11 6,917.02 6,653.30 54.73 1.05
12 12 7,262.87 6,791.26 75.54 1.07
13 1 5,980.51 6,733.86 42.30 0.89
14 2 6,366.35 6,714.69 26.94 0.95
15 3 6,173.43 6,656.40 5.63 0.98
16 4 6,559.27 6,646.61 1.78 1.01
17 5 6,752.19 6,663.96 5.67 1.00
18 6 6,848.65 6,696.48 12.38 1.02
19 7 7,041.57 6,758.77 24.86 1.04
20 8 6,945.11 6,807.85 30.91 0.97
21 9 7,330.95 6,912.59 49.37 1.01
22 10 7,427.41 7,031.78 66.83 1.04
23 11 7,427.41 7,147.93 79.16 1.05
24 12 7,234.49 7,228.19 79.43 1.05
25 1 6,033.82 7,116.56 31.67 0.88
26 2 6,188.54 7,004.27 -4.32 0.93
27 3 6,807.39 6,971.06 -11.54 0.98
28 4 6,962.10 6,959.91 -11.45 1.01
29 5 7,116.82 6,973.71 -5.13 1.01
30 6 6,962.10 6,967.61 -5.38 1.01
31 7 7,271.53 7,008.63 6.22 1.04
32 8 7,271.53 7,053.35 15.85 0.99
33 9 7,426.24 7,122.76 29.24 1.02
34 10 7,658.31 7,227.94 48.22 1.04
35 11 7,735.67 7,345.09 65.46 1.05
36 12 8,122.45 7,517.33 92.15 1.06
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
vización Exponencial Triple

Ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt

Ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt γ' Dt/γ' Promedio

5,449.61 -84.00 84.00 7,056.19 0.02 6,144.89 0.90 0.89
5,663.20 -331.54 331.54 109,921.48 0.06 6,183.10 0.97 0.93
5,936.42 -634.75 634.75 402,903.13 0.10 6,221.31 1.06 0.98
6,206.57 -479.88 479.88 230,283.06 0.07 6,259.51 1.07 1.00
6,287.79 -52.81 52.81 2,789.15 0.01 6,297.72 1.01 1.00
6,409.86 -276.59 276.59 76,499.56 0.04 6,335.93 1.06 1.01
6,717.52 -199.50 199.50 39,798.93 0.03 6,374.14 1.09 1.04
6,443.77 564.30 564.30 318,440.05 0.10 6,412.35 0.92 0.97
6,637.00 411.69 411.69 169,487.26 0.07 6,450.56 0.97 1.01
6,824.59 195.78 195.78 38,329.22 0.03 6,488.77 1.02 1.04
6,963.84 46.82 46.82 2,192.43 0.01 6,526.97 1.06 1.05
7,203.95 -58.91 58.91 3,470.75 0.01 6,565.18 1.11 1.07
6,136.73 156.21 156.21 24,402.29 0.03 6,603.39 0.91 12.00
6,419.23 52.87 52.87 2,795.61 0.01 6,641.60 0.96
6,747.25 573.82 573.82 329,264.13 0.09 6,679.81 0.92
6,801.86 242.59 242.59 58,850.19 0.04 6,718.02 0.98
6,644.38 -107.81 107.81 11,623.59 0.02 6,756.23 1.00
6,780.21 -68.44 68.44 4,684.05 0.01 6,794.43 1.01
6,995.00 -46.57 46.57 2,168.75 0.01 6,832.64 1.03
6,483.35 -461.76 461.76 213,220.28 0.07 6,870.85 1.01
6,821.71 -509.24 509.24 259,323.64 0.07 6,909.06 1.06
7,196.32 -231.09 231.09 53,402.13 0.03 6,947.27 1.07
7,456.69 29.27 29.27 857.02 0.00 6,985.48 1.06
7,753.27 518.77 518.77 269,126.34 0.07 7,023.69 1.03
6,520.54 486.71 486.71 236,888.95 0.08 7,061.89 0.85
6,773.12 584.58 584.58 341,732.55 0.09 7,100.10 0.87
6,877.35 69.96 69.96 4,894.83 0.01 7,138.31 0.95
7,046.22 84.12 84.12 7,075.48 0.01 7,176.52 0.97
6,968.32 -148.50 148.50 22,051.26 0.02 7,214.73 0.99
7,094.83 132.72 132.72 17,615.76 0.02 7,252.94 0.96
7,257.77 -13.76 13.76 189.23 0.00 7,291.15 1.00
6,817.33 -454.20 454.20 206,297.47 0.06 7,329.35 0.99
7,162.94 -263.30 263.30 69,327.15 0.04 7,367.56 1.01
7,433.16 -225.15 225.15 50,693.23 0.03 7,405.77 1.03
7,622.57 -113.10 113.10 12,791.46 0.01 7,443.98 1.04
7,816.82 -305.63 305.63 93,412.59 0.04 7,482.19 1.09
6,705.35
7,174.29
7,645.67
7,960.25
8,036.12
8,178.31
8,498.81
8,144.06
8,518.62
8,813.29
8,949.03
9,151.26
 Histórico Demanda de Pollo en La Granja de Juan (2016 a 2018)
9,000.00

8,500.00

8,000.00

7,500.00
Toneladas

7,000.00

6,500.00

6,000.00

5,500.00

5,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33

Periodos

Prónostico 2: Suavización Exponencial Doble

Histórico
Periodo Demanda St Gt Ft
(Tn)
Alfa (α) 0 6,106.68 38.21
0.25 1 5,533.61 6,053.20 15.29 6,144.89
2 5,994.75 6,057.42 12.52 6,068.48
Beta (β) 3 6,571.17 6,145.13 31.32 6,069.94
0.35 4 6,686.45 6,252.94 50.44 6,176.44
5 6,340.60 6,308.97 51.84 6,303.39
m 6 6,686.45 6,409.65 64.05 6,360.80
38.21 7 6,917.02 6,540.20 80.67 6,473.70
8 5,879.46 6,509.66 52.87 6,620.87
b 9 6,225.31 6,511.95 40.22 6,562.53
6106.68 10 6,628.81 6,563.67 43.10 6,552.17
Normalizado 11 6,917.02 6,653.30 54.73 6,606.77
0.89 12 7,262.87 6,791.26 75.54 6,708.04
0.93 13 5,980.51 6,733.86 42.30 6,866.80
0.98 14 6,366.35 6,714.69 26.94 6,776.16
1.00 15 6,173.43 6,656.40 5.63 6,741.63
1.00 16 6,559.27 6,646.61 1.78 6,662.02
 1.01 17 6,752.19 6,663.96 5.67 6,648.39
1.04 18 6,848.65 6,696.48 12.38 6,669.63
0.97 19 7,041.57 6,758.77 24.86 6,708.86
1.01 20 6,945.11 6,807.85 30.91 6,783.63
1.04 21 7,330.95 6,912.59 49.37 6,838.76
1.05 22 7,427.41 7,031.78 66.83 6,961.96
1.07 23 7,427.41 7,147.93 79.16 7,098.60
12.00 24 7,234.49 7,228.19 79.43 7,227.08
25 6,033.82 7,116.56 31.67 7,307.63
26 6,188.54 7,004.27 -4.32 7,148.22
27 6,807.39 6,971.06 -11.54 6,999.95
28 6,962.10 6,959.91 -11.45 6,959.52
29 7,116.82 6,973.71 -5.13 6,948.46
30 6,962.10 6,967.61 -5.38 6,968.58
31 7,271.53 7,008.63 6.22 6,962.23
32 7,271.53 7,053.35 15.85 7,014.85
33 7,426.24 7,122.76 29.24 7,069.20
34 7,658.31 7,227.94 48.22 7,151.99
35 7,735.67 7,345.09 65.46 7,276.17
36 8,122.45 7,517.33 92.15 7,410.55
37 7,609.49
38 7,701.64
39 7,793.79
40 7,885.94
41 7,978.09
42 8,070.25
43 8,162.40
44 8,254.55
45 8,346.70
46 8,438.86
47 8,531.01
48 8,623.16
n (2016 a 2018)

24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

vización Exponencial Doble

et |et| e^2 |et|/dt

611.28 611.28 373,658.22 11%

73.74 73.74 5,436.97 1%
-501.22 501.22 251,223.48 8%
-510.01 510.01 260,105.96 8%
-37.21 37.21 1,384.77 1%
-325.64 325.64 106,044.20 5%
-443.32 443.32 196,529.13 6%
741.41 741.41 549,684.29 13%
337.22 337.22 113,714.29 5%
-76.63 76.63 5,872.87 1%
-310.25 310.25 96,254.98 4%
-554.83 554.83 307,836.59 8%
886.29 886.29 785,504.81 15%
409.81 409.81 167,942.42 6%
568.19 568.19 322,842.11 9%
102.75 102.75 10,557.96 2%
 -103.81 103.81 10,775.58 2%
-179.03 179.03 32,050.56 3%
-332.71 332.71 110,696.69 5%
-161.49 161.49 26,077.90 2%
-492.19 492.19 242,250.37 7%
-465.45 465.45 216,643.68 6%
-328.81 328.81 108,114.19 4%
-7.41 7.41 54.92 0%
1,273.80 1273.80 1,622,574.65 21%
959.69 959.69 920,995.55 16%
192.56 192.56 37,077.93 3%
-2.58 2.58 6.68 0%
-168.36 168.36 28,343.74 2%
6.48 6.48 41.96 0%
-309.30 309.30 95,664.40 4%
-256.68 256.68 65,884.33 4%
-357.04 357.04 127,479.52 5%
-506.32 506.32 256,359.11 7%
-459.50 459.50 211,143.70 6%
-711.91 711.91 506,810.29 9%
Trabajadores Iniciales 3 Salario 980,657
Tasa por trabajador 213.33 Bandejas/dia
Costo Contratar $ 350,000
Costo Despedir $ 440,000
Costo mantener $ 40,000 Mes/kilo
Inventario inicial 0

Estrategia de P
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril
Demanda 1,696,882 1,474,060 1,799,724 1,682,599
Dias Habiles 21 20 20 20
Stock de seguridad 0 0 0 0
Inventario 1,038 3,245 4,054 2,522
Trabajadores normales 379 346 422 394
Contrataciones 376 0 76 0
Despidos 0 33 0 28
Trabajo sobre tiempo
Total trabajadores 379 346 422 394
Producción 1,697,920 1,476,267 1,800,533 1,681,067
Producción Acomulada 1,697,920 3,174,187 4,974,720 6,655,787
Subcontrataciones
COSTO MOD $ 371,669,003 $ 339,307,322 $ 413,837,254 $ 386,378,858
COSTO CONTR/DESP $ 131,600,000 $ 14,520,000 $ 26,600,000 $ 12,320,000
COSTO MANTENER INV $ 41,501,644 $ 129,787,921 $ 162,168,453 $ 100,877,659
COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $ 544,770,647 $ 483,615,243 $ 602,605,707 $ 499,576,517
COSTO TOTAL $
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $
 Carne para asar 30%
Sobrebarriga 8%
cadera 5%
Total 43%

Estrategia de Persecusión - Fuerza Laboral Variable

Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre
1,656,889 1,652,127 1,713,070 1,663,872 1,674,029
22 18 22 20 20
0 0 0 0 0
2,380 1,453 1,449 1,577 82
353 430 365 390 392
0 77 0 25 2
41 0 65 0 0

353 430 365 390 392

1,656,747 1,651,200 1,713,067 1,664,000 1,672,533
8,312,533 9,963,733 11,676,800 13,340,800 15,013,333

$ 346,171,921 $ 421,682,510 $ 357,939,805 $ 382,456,230 $ 384,417,544

$ 18,040,000 $ 26,950,000 $ 28,600,000 $ 8,750,000 $ 700,000
$ 95,200,477 $ 58,103,593 $ 57,952,223 $ 63,086,158 $ 3,266,569

$ 459,412,398 $ 506,736,103 $ 444,492,028 $ 454,292,388 $ 388,384,113

 Trabajadores Iniciales
Tasa por trabajador
Costo Contratar
Costo Despedir
Costo mantener
Inventario inicial

Fuerza Laboral
Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
1,676,357 1,683,657 1,671,419
22 19 23
0 0 0 Demanda
3,938 2,415 4,169 Dias Habiles
358 415 341 Stock de seguridad
0 57 0 Inventario
34 0 74 Trabajadores normales
Contrataciones
358 415 341 Despidos
1,680,213 1,682,133 1,673,173 Trabajo sobre tiempo
16,693,547 18,375,680 20,048,853 Total trabajadores
Producción
$ 351,075,206 $ 406,972,655 $ 334,404,037 Producción Acumulada
$ 14,960,000 $ 19,950,000 $ 32,560,000 Subcontrataciones
$ 157,539,573 $ 96,593,899 $ 166,767,460 COSTO MOD
COSTO CONTR/DESP
$ 523,574,779 $ 523,516,554 $ 533,731,497 COSTO MANTENER INV
5,964,707,975 COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
298 COSTO TOTAL PERIODO
COSTO TOTAL
COSTO UND PROMEDIO
 3 Salario 980,657
213.333333333333 Bandejas/dia
$ 350,000
$ 440,000
$ 40,000 Mes/Kilo
0

378.77 362.53 381.97 385.03 378.19

Estrategia de nivelación - Fuer

Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo
1,696,882 1,474,060 1,799,724 1,682,599 1,656,889
21 20 20 20 22
0 0 0 0 0
32,398 205,271 52,481 16,815 171,553
386 386 386 386 386
383 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

386 386 386 386 386

1,729,280 1,646,933 1,646,933 1,646,933 1,811,627
1,729,280 3,376,213 5,023,147 6,670,080 8,481,707

$ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602

$ 134,050,000 $ $ $ $
$ 1,295,901,644 $ 8,210,854,588 $ 2,099,235,120 $ 672,610,993 $ 6,862,133,810

$ 1,808,485,246 $ 8,589,388,190 $ 2,477,768,722 $ 1,051,144,595 $ 7,240,667,412

$
$
 385.94 382.71 383.60 384.56 381.62

egia de nivelación - Fuerza Laboral constante

Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre
1,652,127 1,713,070 1,663,872 1,674,029 1,676,357
18 22 20 20 22
0 0 0 0 0
1,666 100,222 83,284 56,188 191,458
386 386 386 386 386
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

386 386 386 386 386

1,482,240 1,811,627 1,646,933 1,646,933 1,811,627
9,963,947 11,775,573 13,422,507 15,069,440 16,881,067

$ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602

$ $ $ $ $
$ 66,636,927 $ 4,008,885,556 $ 3,331,352,825 $ 2,247,533,235 $ 7,658,339,573

$ 445,170,529 $ 4,387,419,158 $ 3,709,886,427 $ 2,626,066,837 $ 8,036,873,175

 384.49 380.40

Noviembre Diciembre
1,683,657 1,671,419
19 23
0 0
72,388 294,943
386 386
0 0
0 0

386 386
1,564,587 1,893,973
18,445,653 20,339,627

$ 378,533,602 $ 378,533,602
$ $
$ 2,895,527,232 $ 11,797,700,793

$ 3,274,060,834 $ 12,176,234,395
55,823,165,521
2,745
Trabajadores Iniciales 2 Salario 980,657
Tasa por trabajador 226.67 Bandejas/dia
Costo Contratar $ 350,000
Costo Despedir $ 440,000
Costo mantener $ 32,000 Mes/kilo
Inventario inicial 0

Estrategia de P
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril
Demanda 1,262,697 1,274,428 1,286,159 1,297,890
Dias Habiles 21 20 20 20
Stock de seguridad 0 0 0 0
Inventario 3,463 2,902 4,210 2,853
Trabajadores normales 266 281 284 286
Contrataciones 264 15 3 2
Despidos 0 0 0 0
Trabajo sobre tiempo
Total trabajadores 266 281 284 286
Producción 1266160 1273867 1287467 1296533
Producción Acomulada 1266160 2540027 3827493 5124027
Subcontrataciones
COSTO MOD $ 260,854,762 $ 275,564,617 $ 278,506,588 $ 280,467,902
COSTO CONTR/DESP $ 92,400,000 $ 5,250,000 $ 1,050,000 $ 700,000
COSTO MANTENER INV $ 110,828,973 $ 92,873,074 $ 134,718,971 $ 91,299,995
COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $ 464,083,735 $ 373,687,691 $ 414,275,559 $ 372,467,897
COSTO TOTAL $
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $
 Milanesa de Cerdo 35%
Costllas de Cerdo 15%
Chorizos 10%
Total 60%

Estrategia de Persecusión - Fuerza Laboral Variable

Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre
1,309,621 1,321,353 1,333,084 1,344,815 1,356,546
22 18 22 20 20
0 0 0 0 0
4,725 1,213 4,555 1,607 528
263 323 268 296 299
0 60 0 28 3
23 0 55 0 0

263 323 268 296 299

1311493 1317840 1336427 1341867 1355467
6435520 7753360 9089787 10431653 11787120

$ 257,912,791 $ 316,752,211 $ 262,816,076 $ 290,274,472 $ 293,216,443

$ 10,120,000 $ 21,000,000 $ 24,200,000 $ 9,800,000 $ 1,050,000
$ 151,202,815 $ 38,800,763 $ 145,773,839 $ 51,428,711 $ 16,885,377

$ 419,235,606 $ 376,552,974 $ 432,789,915 $ 351,503,183 $ 311,151,820

 Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
1,368,277 1,380,009 1,391,740
22 19 23
0 0 0
3,584 1,708 1,929
275 320 267
0 45 0
24 0 53

275 320 267

1371333 1378133 1391960
13158453 14536587 15928547

$ 269,680,675 $ 313,810,240 $ 261,835,419

$ 10,560,000 $ 15,750,000 $ 23,320,000
$ 114,677,172 $ 54,670,761 $ 61,719,480

$ 394,917,847 $ 384,231,001 $ 346,874,899

4,641,772,126
291
Trabajadores Iniciales 2 Salario
Tasa por trabajador 226.67 Bandejas/dia
Costo Contratar $ 350,000
Costo Despedir $ 440,000
Costo mantener $ 32,000 Mes/Kilo
Inventario inicial 0

Fuerza Laboral 265.27 273.00 276.52

Enero Febrero Marzo

Demanda 1,262,697 1,274,428 1,286,159
Dias Habiles 21 20 20
Stock de seguridad 0 0 0
Inventario 103,423 130,062 144,970
Trabajadores normales 287 287 287
Contrataciones 285 0 0
Despidos 0 0 0
Trabajo sobre tiempo
Total trabajadores 287 287 287
Producción 1366120 1301067 1301067
Producción Acumulada 1366120 2667187 3968253
Subcontrataciones
COSTO MOD $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559
COSTO CONTR/DESP $ 99,750,000 $ $
COSTO MANTENER INV $ 3,309,548,973 $ 4,161,993,074 $ 4,639,038,971
COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $ 3,690,747,532 $ 4,443,441,633 $ 4,920,487,530
COSTO TOTAL $
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $
 980,657

278.93 275.45 282.65 280.29 282.30

Estrategia de nivelación - Fuerza Laboral constante

Abril Mayo Junio Julio Agosto
1,297,890 1,309,621 1,321,353 1,333,084 1,344,815
20 22 18 22 20
0 0 0 0 0
148,146 269,698 119,306 217,395 173,647
287 287 287 287 287
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

287 287 287 287 287

1301067 1431173 1170960 1431173 1301067
5269320 6700493 7871453 9302627 10603693

$ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559

$ $ $ $ $
$ 4,740,686,662 $ 8,630,349,482 $ 3,817,787,430 $ 6,956,653,839 $ 5,556,708,711

$ 5,022,135,221 $ 8,911,798,041 $ 4,099,235,989 $ 7,238,102,398 $ 5,838,157,270

 284.15 283.10 286.27 284.47

Septiembre Octubre Noviembre Diciembre

1,356,546 1,368,277 1,380,009 1,391,740
20 22 19 23
0 0 0 0
118,168 181,064 37,068 141,555
287 287 287 287
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0

287 287 287 287

1301067 1431173 1236013 1496227
11904760 13335933 14571947 16068173

$ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559 $ 281,448,559

$ $ $ $
$ 3,781,365,377 $ 5,794,037,172 $ 1,186,190,761 $ 4,529,772,813

$ 4,062,813,936 $ 6,075,485,731 $ 1,467,639,320 $ 4,811,221,372

60,581,265,972
3,770
Trabajadores Iniciales 2 Salario 980,657
Tasa por trabajador 180 Bandejas/dia
Costo Contratar $ 350,000
Costo Despedir $ 440,000
Costo mantener $ 28,000 Mes/kilo
Inventario inicial 0

Estrategia de Persecu
Enero Febrero Marzo Abril
Demanda 1,262,697 1,274,428 1,286,159 1,297,890
Dias Habiles 21 20 20 20
Stock de seguridad 0 0 0 0
Inventario 3,603 3,576 2,617 726
Trabajadores normales 335 354 357 360
Contrataciones 333 19 3 3
Despidos 0 0 0 0
Trabajo sobre tiempo
Total trabajadores 335 354 357 360
Producción 1266300 1274400 1285200 1296000
Producción Acomulada 1266300 2540700 3825900 5121900
Subcontrataciones
COSTO MOD $ 328,520,095 $ 347,152,578 $ 350,094,549 $ 353,036,520
COSTO CONTR/DESP $ 116,550,000 $ 6,650,000 $ 1,050,000 $ 1,050,000
COSTO MANTENER INV $ 100,895,351 $ 100,117,273 $ 73,265,766 $ 20,340,829
COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
COSTO TOTAL PERIODO $ 545,965,446 $ 453,919,851 $ 424,410,315 $ 374,427,349
COSTO TOTAL $
COSTO UND PROMEDIO $
 Paquete de alas 10%
Pechuga 50%
Total 60%

Estrategia de Persecusión - Fuerza Laboral Variable

Mayo Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre
1,309,621 1,321,353 1,333,084 1,344,815 1,356,546
22 18 22 20 20
0 0 0 0 0
1,865 2,433 3,869 1,854 2,508
331 408 337 373 377
0 77 0 36 4
29 0 71 0 0

331 408 337 373 377

1310760 1321920 1334520 1342800 1357200
6432660 7754580 9089100 10431900 11789100

$ 324,597,467 $ 400,108,056 $ 330,481,409 $ 365,785,061 $ 369,707,689

$ 12,760,000 $ 26,950,000 $ 31,240,000 $ 12,600,000 $ 1,400,000
$ 52,222,463 $ 68,110,668 $ 108,325,443 $ 51,906,788 $ 70,214,705

$ 389,579,930 $ 495,168,724 $ 470,046,852 $ 430,291,849 $ 441,322,394

 Trabajadores Iniciales
Tasa por trabajador
Costo Contratar
Costo Despedir
Costo mantener
Inventario inicial

Fuerza Laboral
Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
1,368,277 1,380,009 1,391,740
22 19 23
0 0 0 Demanda
430 2,102 1,402 Dias Habiles
345 404 336 Stock de seguridad
0 59 0 Inventario
32 0 68 Trabajadores normales
Contrataciones
345 404 336 Despidos
1366200 1381680 1391040 Trabajo sobre tiempo
13155300 14536980 15928020 Total trabajadores
Producción
$ 338,326,665 $ 396,185,428 $ 329,500,752 Producción Acumulada
$ 14,080,000 $ 20,650,000 $ 29,920,000 Subcontrataciones
$ 12,049,192 $ 58,850,250 $ 39,257,878 COSTO MOD
COSTO CONTR/DESP
$ 364,455,857 $ 475,685,678 $ 398,678,630 COSTO MANTENER INV
5,263,952,875 COSTO SUBCONTRATAR
330 COSTO TOTAL PERIODO
COSTO TOTAL
COSTO UND PROMEDIO
 2 Salario 980,657
180 Bandejas/dia
$ 350,000
$ 440,000
$ 28,000 Mes/kilo
0

334.05 343.78 348.20 351.25 346.86

Estrategia de nivelación - Fuerza Laboral consta

Enero Febrero Marzo Abril Mayo
1,262,697 1,274,428 1,286,159 1,297,890 1,309,621
21 20 20 20 22
0 0 0 0 0
101,883 127,056 140,497 142,206 262,145
361 361 361 361 361
359 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

361 361 361 361 361

1364580 1299600 1299600 1299600 1429560
1364580 2664180 3963780 5263380 6692940

$ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177

$ 125,650,000 $ $ $ $
$ 2,852,735,351 $ 3,557,557,273 $ 3,933,905,766 $ 3,981,780,829 $ 7,340,062,463

$ 3,332,402,528 $ 3,911,574,450 $ 4,287,922,943 $ 4,335,798,006 $ 7,694,079,640

$
$
 355.93 352.96 355.49 357.82 356.50

de nivelación - Fuerza Laboral constante

Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre Octubre
1,321,353 1,333,084 1,344,815 1,356,546 1,368,277
18 22 20 20 22
0 0 0 0 0
110,433 206,909 161,694 104,748 166,030
361 361 361 361 361
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

361 361 361 361 361

1169640 1429560 1299600 1299600 1429560
7862580 9292140 10591740 11891340 13320900

$ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177

$ $ $ $ $
$ 3,092,110,668 $ 5,793,445,443 $ 4,527,426,788 $ 2,932,934,705 $ 4,648,849,192

$ 3,446,127,845 $ 6,147,462,620 $ 4,881,443,965 $ 3,286,951,882 $ 5,002,866,369

51,069,
 360.49 358.22

Noviembre Diciembre
1,380,009 1,391,740
19 23
0 0
20,642 123,442
361 361
0 0
0 0

361 361
1234620 1494540
14555520 16050060

$ 354,017,177 $ 354,017,177
$ $
$ 577,970,250 $ 3,456,377,878

$ 931,987,427 $ 3,810,395,055
51,069,012,730
3,182
 Materiales de marinada y empaque

https://www.recetasgratis.net/receta-de-alitas-de-pollo-marinadas-fritas-36672.html
1kg Alas
2 limones
3 cucharadas soperas salsa se soya
1 cudharara sopera de miel
4 dientes de ajo
1 cucharada de perejil
1 Bolsa de Kg

https://cookpad.com/co/recetas/4839794-pechuga-de-pollo-marinada
1kg pechuga
1/2 tasa de miel
4 cucharadas mostaza
2 cucharadas paprica
4 cucharadas de vinagre manzana
2 cucharadas ajo en polvo
2 cucharadas comino
2 cucharadas sal
2 cucharadas aceite de oliva
1 Bolsa de Kg

https://comida.uncomo.com/receta/como-marinar-pollo-25388.html
1kg hueso
2 limones
2 dientes de ajo
pisca tomillo
2 cucharadas aceite de oliva
pisca sal
pisca pimienta
1 Bolsa de Kg

1kg otros
2 limones
2 dientes de ajo
pisca tomillo
2 cucharadas aceite de oliva
pisca sal
pisca pimienta
1 Bolsa de Kg