482.

39

6
 a. Utilice EVPI para determinar si la empresa debe tratar de obtener una mejor estimación de la demanda.

Tabla3 . Proceso de decisión para la comercialización del producto

Estados de la naturaleza
Alternativa EV
de decisión low low-average high
medium hidh
manufacture 438 466 495 500 478.55
Subcontract 426 462 487 512 477.63
buy 430 469 487 509 479.35
lease 451 474 487 503 482.39
outsource 436 470 488 508 480.54
Probabilidades 0.17 0.29 0.21 0.33

EVwPI 487.04

EVwoPI 482.39

EVPI 4.65

b. Se espera que un estudio de mercado de prueba de la demanda potencial de productos reporte una condición favorable (F)
 P(F/low) 0.15 P(D/low) 0.85
P(F/ low average) 0.45 P(D/ low average) 0.55
P(F/high medium) 0.3 P(D/high medium) 0.7
P(F/high) 0.5 P(D/high) 0.5

favorable

prior condicional joint posterior

low 0.17 0.15 0.0255 0.1545
low average 0.29 0.45 0.1305 0.3398
high medium 0.21 0.3 0.063 0.1641
high 0.33 0.5 0.165 0.4297
0.384 1.0000

desfovorable

prior condicional joint posterior

low 0.17 0.79 0.1343 0.1906
low average 0.29 0.75 0.2175 0.3087
high medium 0.21 0.58 0.1218 0.1729
high 0.33 0.7 0.231 0.3278
0.7046 1.0000
favorable
0.384

487.066406

476.8225

manufacture
 308.0173

481.3701
6
2

subcontract

desfavorable
477.7908

buy

481.3701

lease

479.0882

479.0882

outsource

c. ¿Cuál es el valor esperado de la información de investigación de mer

EVMI=EVwSI-EVwoSI
 EVMI=EVwSI-EVwoSI

EVwSI 0

EVwoSI 0

EVMI 0

d.¿Cuál es la eficiencia de la información

eficiencia de la información -842.3096

 alternative
low 0.17 438

478.55 low averge 0.29 466

1
high medium 0.21 495
manufacture
high 0.33 500

low 0.17 426

477.63 low averge 0.29 462

2
high medium 0.21 487
subcontract
high 0.33 512

low 0.17 430

479.35 low averge 0.29 469

3
high medium 0.21 487
 buy
high 0.33 509

low 0.17 451

482.39 low averge 0.29 474

4
high medium 0.21 487
lease
high 0.33 503

low 0.17 436

480.54 low averge 0.29 470

5
high medium 0.21 488
outsource
high 0.33 508

a demanda.

orte una condición favorable (F) o desfavorable (U). Las probabilidades condicionales relevantes son:
 alternative
low 0.0664 438

483.5095 low averge 0.3398 466

1
high medium 0.1641 495
manufacture
high 0.4297 500

433.0243 low 0.0664 426

low averge 0.3398 462

2
 2
high medium 0.1641 487
subcontract
high 0.3278 512

485.636 low 0.0664 430

low averge 0.3398 469

3
high medium 0.1641 487
buy
high 0.4279 509

low 0.0664 451

487.066406 low averge 0.3398 474

4
high medium 0.1641 487
lease
high 0.4297 503

low 0.064 436

434.2132 low averge 0.3398 470

5
high medium 0.1641 488
outsource
high 0.3278 508

alternative
low 0.1906 438

low averge 0.3087 466

high medium 0.1729 495

manufacture
 high 0.3278 500

308.0173 low 0.1906 426

low averge 0.3087 462

high medium 0.1729 487

high 0.3278 512

low 0.1906 430

low averge 0.3087 469

high medium 0.1729 487

high 0.3278 509

481.3701 low 0.1906 451

low averge 0.3087 474

high medium 0.1729 487

high 0.3278 503

479.0882 low 0.1906 436

low averge 0.3087 470

high medium 0.1729 488

high 0.3278 508

investigación de mercado?