1)

METODO PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE

Precio pronostico DAM

1 14.45
2 15.75
3 16.45
4 17.40
5 17.32
6 15.96 16.27 0.314
7 16.45 16.58 0.126
8 15.60 16.72 1.116
9 15.09 16.55 1.456
10 16.42 16.08 0.336
11 16.21 15.90 0.306
12 15.22 15.95 0.734
13 15.71 0.627

DA MENOR PROMEDIO DE ERROR DESDE EL PUNTO DE VISTA DE EXACTITUD ES EL MEJOR METODO

ESTOS DATOS ESPECIFICOS
METODO PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

Precio Pronostico DAM

1 14.45
2 15.75
3 16.45
4 17.40
5 17.32 16.49 0.83
6 15.96 17.013 1.053
7 16.45 16.705 0.255
8 15.60 16.572 0.972
9 15.09 16.099 1.009
10 16.42 15.602 0.818
11 16.21 15.86 0.35
12 15.22 15.988 0.768
13 15.726 0.757

METODO SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL

Precio Pronostico DAM

1 14.5 14.5
2 15.8 14.5 1.300
3 16.5 15.4 1.090
4 17.4 16.1 1.277
5 17.3 17.0 0.303
6 16.0 17.2 1.269
7 16.5 16.3 0.109
8 15.6 16.4 0.817
9 15.1 15.8 0.755
10 16.4 15.3 1.103
 11 16.2 16.1 0.121
12 15.2 16.2 0.954
13 15.5 0.827

CUAL DE LOS TRES ELIGES DEPENDE DE LA EXACTITUD O SUAVIZAMIENTO

2) METODO DE SUAVIZACION

% de
Trimestre
participación
III 2017 29.8
IV 2017 31.0
I 2018 29.9
II 2018 30.1
III 2018 32.2
IV 2018 31.5
I 2019 32.0
II 2019 31.9
III 2019 30.0

ALFA=0,2
PRONOSTICO
1 29.8 29.80
2 31 29.80 1.200 3.87
3 29.9 30.04 0.140 0.47
4 30.1 30.01 0.088 0.29
5 32.2 30.03 2.170 6.74
6 31.5 30.46 1.036 3.29
7 32 30.67 1.329 4.15
8 31.9 30.94 0.963 3.02
9 30 31.13 1.129 3.76
10 30.90 1.007 3.200

ALFA=0,3 PRONOSTICO
1 29.8 29.8
2 31 29.80 1.200 3.87
3 29.9 30.16 0.260 0.87
 4 30.1 30.08 0.018 0.06
5 32.2 30.09 2.113 6.56
6 31.5 30.72 0.779 2.47
7 32 30.95 1.045 3.27
8 31.9 31.27 0.632 1.98
9 30 31.46 1.458 4.86
10 31.02 0.938 2.992

ALFA=0,4

PRONOSTICO
1 29.8 29.8
2 31 29.80 1.200 3.87
3 29.9 30.28 0.380 1.27
4 30.1 30.13 0.028 0.09
5 32.2 30.12 2.083 6.47
6 31.5 30.95 0.550 1.75
7 32 31.17 0.830 2.59
8 31.9 31.50 0.398 1.25
9 30 31.66 1.661 5.54
10 31.00 0.891 2.854

POR METODO DE EXACTITUD ELIGES PARA EL ALFA=0,4

40
Cha
35
30 f(x) = 1.77380952380953 x + 19.99
R² = 0.849858899153089
25
20
15
3)
10
C.OPORT 5
1 20 0
2 25 1 2 3 4

3 28
4 28
5 27
6 30
7 31
8 36
9
 10

4) Y X
SEMANA HUES V.REST X*Y X^2
1 16 330 5280 108900
2 12 270 3240 72900
3 18 380 6840 144400
4 14 300 4200 90000
5 20 X
19560 416200

b= 0.05454545

a= -2.45454545

y=-2,45 + 0,054x

x= 411.666667
 Chart Title
20.00
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
DAPM(PM)(%)

1.967
0.766
7.154
9.649
2.046 Chart Title
1.888 20.00
18.00
4.823
16.00
4.042
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
E EXACTITUD ES EL MEJOR METODO PARA 6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Column E Column F
 Chart Title
20.00
DAM 18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
4.79 6.00
6.60 4.00
1.55 2.00
0.00
6.23 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
6.69
Column E Column F
4.98
2.16
5.05
4.76

Chart Title
20.0
8.25
18.0
6.63 16.0
7.34 14.0
1.75 12.0
7.95 10.0
8.0
0.66
6.0
5.24
4.0
5.00 2.0
6.72 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Column E Column F
 6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
0.75
6.27 Column E Column F

5.14

|
40
Chart Title
35
30 f(x) = 1.77380952380953 x + 19.9928571428571
R² = 0.849858899153089
25
20
15
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
 Chart Title
n= 4
400
Xpro= 320
ypro= 15 350 f(x) = 18 x + 50.0000000000001
R² = 0.981818181818182
300

250

200

150

100

50

0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Chart Title

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

10 11 12 13
12 13