EJERCICIO 1

Trimestre

Ventas

12

16

20

34

23

19

20

35

11

10

19

11

24

12

36

13

22

14

18

15

24

16

34

17

15

18

23

19

25

20

38

21

Pronostico (Pronostico Moviles)

16.00
23.33
25.67
25.33
20.67
24.67
22.00
21.67
18.00
26.33
27.33
25.33
21.33
25.33
24.33
24.00
21.00
28.67

Grfico
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

EJERCICIO 2

meses
julio
agosto
septiembre
octubre
noviembre
diciembre
enero
febrero
marzo
abril
mayo
junio

ventas Xt
5
6
7
9
8
12
7
10
7
8
11
8

alfha

0.3

pronostico
5
5.3
5.8
6.8
7.1
8.6
8.1
8.7
8.2
8.1
9.0
8.7

error
1
2.9
10.2
1.5
23.6
2.5
3.5
2.8
0.0
8.3
1.0
75.5
5.22

Grfico
12
9

6
5.3

7
5.8

6.8

8
7.1

8.6

8.1
7

Series1

10
8.7

11

8.2
7

8.1
8

Series2

9.0

8.7
8

EJERCICIO 3

Ao (X)

Exportaciones (Y)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

4.3
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.6
4.1
4.7
4.2
4.5

XY

X CUADRADA Y CUADRADA PRONOSTICO

4.30

18.49

7.80

15.21

10.50

12.25

14.40

16

12.96

18.50

25

13.69

24.00

36

16.00

25.20

49

12.96

32.80

64

16.81

42.30

81

22.09

42.00

100

17.64

49.50

121

20.25

2011
TOTAL
N

4.37

66
11

44.1

271.30

3.64
0.061

506

178.35

Ao (X)

Exportaciones (Y)

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

4.3
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.6
4.1
4.7
4.2
4.5
4.37

EJERCICIO 3

MILLONES DE DOLARES DE LA EMPRESA M&M

5
4.7

4.5

4.5
4.3

4.0

3.9

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

4.2

4.1

4.37

3.6

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Trimestre

EJERCICIO 4 4
EJERCICIO

AO

I
I

II
II

2008

24

31

21

42

2009

27

32

26

41

2010
Total
Media

28

27

35

44

73
26.333

105
30.000

88
27.333

129
42.333

II

81.356
85.714
83.582
83.551
83.551

105.085
101.587
80.597
95.756
95.756

Trimestre
Ao
2008
2009
2010
Media
ndice
100

Factor de ajuste

III

III

71.186
82.540
104.478
86.06791
86.068

IV

Media trimestral
29.50
31.50
33.50

IV

142.373
130.159
131.343
134.625
134.625

400.000

EJERCICIO 4

Datos Desestacionalizados
Trimestre
AO
2008
2009
2010

II

28.725
32.316
33.513

32.374
33.418
28.197

III

24.399
30.209
40.666

IV

31.198
30.455
32.683

EJERCICIO 5

49.50

X
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121

Y2

271.30

506

178.35

Ao (X) X

XY

2000

4.3

4.30

2001

3.9

7.80

2002

3.5

10.50

2003

3.6

14.40

2004

3.7

18.50

2005

4.0

24.00

2006

3.6

25.20

2007

4.1

32.80

2008

4.7

42.30

2009

10

4.2

42.00

2010

11

4.5

Total

66

44

11
3.64
0.061

18
15
12
13
14
16
13
17
22
18
20

Y_est = 3.64 + 0.061 (X) C-I = (Y/Y_est)100

3.70
116.07
3.77
103.57
3.83
91.47
3.89
92.61
3.95
93.71
4.01
99.77
4.07
88.45
4.13
99.25
4.19
112.12
4.25
98.76
4.31
104.32

EJERCICIO 5

Grafica de Ciclos
140.00

120.00
100.00

116.07

112.12
103.57
91.47 92.61 93.71

99.77

99.25

104.32
98.76

88.45

80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010