Escenario 1: Método del Excedente del Consumidor (Sin Producción y Sin Costos Evitados)

Economic Feasibility: Adoquin IRI 4

Country Nicaragua Project Mejoramiento del Camino 1/1/2021

Road ABISINIA - EMPALME DE MALECONCITO Alternative Adoquin IRI 4

Alternatives Description Terrain Type Road Type Wet Season Duration

Without Project Sin Proyecto B: Ondulado Y: Ripio (days/year)
Project Adoquin IRI 4 B: Ondulado X: Pavimento

Dry Season Wet Season MotocicletaAutomóvil Vehículos Vehículo Autobús Autobús Camión Camión Camión
Length Roughness Length Roughness con
Mediano
Tracción en las Cuatro
de Reparto
Ruedas Mediano Pesado Liviano Mediano Pesado
Alternatives (km) (IRI) (km) (IRI) Average Speeds (km/hr)
Without Project 35.8 18.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.0 29.1 24.5 28.2 29.1
Project 35.8 4.0 64.5 64.9 64.9 64.9 61.7 64.8 44.9 52.8 64.7
Traffic Composition in 2024 (%)
Eco. Investment E. Maintenance Accidents 65% 2% 2% 21% 3% 3% 2% 0% 2%
Alternatives (years) ('000US$/km)('000US$/km/year)(#/m veh-km) Average Travel Time (hours)
Without Project 11.04 01:11 01:11 01:11 01:11 01:13 01:13 01:27 01:16 01:13
Project 2 861.80 3.71 00:33 00:33 00:33 00:33 00:34 00:33 00:47 00:40 00:33

Annual Annual Annual Net Economic Benefits Sensitivity Analysis Dry Seaso
Normal Generated Induced Agency Benefits User Benefits A B A&B
Daily Daily Daily Investment Maintenance Normal Traffic Generated Traffic Road CO2 Other Agency * User *
Traffic Traffic Traffic Costs Costs VOC Time VOC Time Safety Benefits Benefits Total 1.2 0.8
Year (veh/day) (veh/day) (veh/day) (MUS$/year) (MUS$/year) (MUS$/year) (MUS$/year) (MUS$/year)
(MUS$/year) (MUS$/year)
(MUS$/year)(MUS$/year)(MUS$/year)
(MUS$/year)(MUS$/year)(MUS$/year)
2024 1020 -15.405 0.166 -15.239 -18.320 -15.272 -18.353
2025 1048 -15.405 0.166 -15.239 -18.320 -15.272 -18.353
2026 1076 41 138 0.262 1.296 2.312 0.206 0.198 4.276 4.328 3.473 3.525
2027 1105 42 143 0.262 1.328 2.369 0.211 0.204 4.374 4.426 3.551 3.604
2028 1135 43 147 0.262 1.360 2.427 0.217 0.209 4.474 4.527 3.632 3.684
2029 1170 44 152 0.262 1.400 2.494 0.223 0.215 4.594 4.647 3.728 3.780
2030 1207 45 156 0.262 1.441 2.564 0.230 0.221 4.717 4.770 3.826 3.879
2031 1244 47 162 0.262 1.483 2.636 0.237 0.227 4.845 4.897 3.928 3.981
2032 1283 48 167 0.262 1.527 2.709 0.244 0.234 4.976 5.029 4.033 4.086
2033 1323 50 173 0.262 1.572 2.785 0.251 0.241 5.111 5.164 4.142 4.194
2034 1369 51 179 0.262 1.622 2.872 0.259 0.248 5.263 5.316 4.263 4.315
2035 1417 53 185 0.262 1.673 2.961 0.267 0.256 5.420 5.472 4.388 4.441
2036 1467 54 193 0.262 1.727 3.053 0.276 0.265 5.583 5.635 4.519 4.571
2037 1518 56 201 0.262 1.782 3.148 0.286 0.274 5.751 5.804 4.654 4.706
2038 1571 58 209 0.262 1.839 3.246 0.295 0.283 5.925 5.978 4.793 4.845
2039 1635 60 218 0.262 1.906 3.363 0.306 0.293 6.130 6.183 4.957 5.009
2040 1702 62 226 0.262 1.976 3.484 0.317 0.303 6.343 6.395 5.126 5.179
2041 1771 64 237 0.262 2.048 3.610 0.329 0.315 6.565 6.617 5.304 5.357
2042 1843 66 248 0.262 2.124 3.741 0.341 0.328 6.795 6.847 5.488 5.541
2043 1919 69 260 0.262 2.202 3.876 0.354 0.340 12.324 19.358 19.410 15.539 15.591
3393.851 Net Present Value (million US$) at 12% Discount Rate 5.020 -0.473 -1.477 -6.969
3.4% Growth Internal Rate of Return (%) 14.27% 11.81% 11.30% 9.13%
Evaluation Equivalent Annual Net Benefits (US$/km) at 12% Discount Rate 16785 -1580 -4937 -23302
Period Modified Rate of Return at 12% Reinvestment Rate (%) 13% 12% 12% 11%
(years) Net Present Value per Financial Investment Costs (ratio) 0.16 -0.02 -0.05 -0.23
20 First-Year Benefits per Economic Investment Cost (ratio) 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.09
 RESUMEN DEL FLUJO EVALUATIVO

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
CONCEPTO
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

BENEFICIOS 42,629,826.67 67,264,582.47 96,006,915.07 49,891,026.04 77,833,923.83 110,700,677.34 43,419,177.58 67,624,588.08 95,800,258.98
TRAFICO NORMAL 34,028,228.00 59,345,270.00 88,711,641.00 31,703,484.46 55,625,373.21 83,955,435.47 34,330,536.00 60,053,678.00 89,690,753.00
TRAFICO GENERADO 1,075,536.50 1,426,139.30 1,834,989.90 3,566,965.06 6,277,015.63 9,502,748.42 1,097,135.30 1,453,535.80 1,866,263.70
COSTOS MANTENIMIENTO 1,862,195.50 2,895,084.50 3,927,973.50 2,429,666.04 3,740,624.50 5,051,582.96 3,034,815.50 4,908,947.50 6,783,079.50
VALOR RESIDUAL 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78
COSTOS EVITADOS
EXCEDENTE PRODUCTOR
COSTOS 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
COSTOS DE INVERSION 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
FLUJO EVALUATIVO 11,335,634.45 35,970,390.25 64,712,722.85 19,413,749.82 47,356,647.60 80,223,401.12 11,915,401.07 36,120,811.57 64,296,482.47

INDICADORES ECONOMICOS

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN -8,017,551.07 -1,531,422.70 377,733.97 -4,041,634.69 3,254,320.08 5,004,913.31 -8,158,969.26 -2,116,772.56 -393,211.17
TIR 5.50% 10.25% 12.18% 8.89% 12.70% 14.26% 5.58% 9.99% 11.82%
R B/C 0.35 0.47 1.21 0.40 0.54 1.40 0.34 0.46 1.17

TASA DE DESCUENTO 8%
DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN -3,574,466.34 6,438,808.95 11,612,666.39 1,348,504.97 12,572,203.96 18,074,831.35 -3,574,393.17 5,950,270.12 10,809,458.20
TIR 5.50% 10.25% 12.18% 8.89% 12.70% 14.26% 5.58% 9.99% 11.82%
R B/C 0.39 0.57 1.52 0.46 0.66 1.75 0.38 0.55 1.47
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

-10% de Ingresos -22,560,851 -18,230,937 -2,527,634 -18,475,919 -13,882,975 1,746,683 -22,733,100 -18,781,938 -3,222,302
-20% de Ingresos -22,985,255 -19,299,163 -5,433,003 -19,156,003 -15,284,682 3,481,050 -23,094,772 -19,773,738 -1,968,400
+10% de Costos -9,582,261 -4,608,526 -2,584,038 -5,565,499 -250,932 222,819 -8,158,969 -5,152,867 -4,797,491
VAN
+20% de Costos -11,146,970 -6,173,236 -5,545,810 -8,917,999 -3,603,432 -1,511,548 -11,309,347 -6,728,055 -6,051,392
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos -24,125,560 -19,299,163 -5,474,579 -19,999,783 -15,284,682 1,957,186 -22,733,100 -19,773,738 -3,543,589
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos -26,114,674 -22,428,582 -11,326,892 -24,032,367 -20,161,046 -4,559,275 -26,245,150 -22,924,116 -9,201,770
-10% de Ingresos -2.65% 3.66% 10.80% 0.56% 5.88% 12.80% -2.33% 3.60% 10.50%
-20% de Ingresos -3.47% 2.80% 9.38% -0.29% 4.98% 11.29% -3.07% 2.79% 9.13%
+10% de Costos 4.55% 9.46% 10.88% 7.89% 11.87% 13.51% 5.58% 9.22% 11.14%
TIR
+20% de Costos 3.66% 8.73% 9.76% 5.93% 10.24% 12.81% 3.78% 8.51% 10.50%
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos -3.19% 2.80% 9.59% -0.02% 4.98% 12.10% -2.33% 2.79% 9.86%
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos -4.54% 1.94% 7.23% -2.04% 3.56% 10.03% -4.12% 1.94% 7.97%
 Escenario 2: Método del Excedente del Productor (Sin Tráfico Generado y Sin Costos Evitados)
RESUMEN DEL FLUJO EVALUATIVO

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
CONCEPTO
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

BENEFICIOS 77,768,355.05 124,686,298.60 175,653,571.16 82,538,125.87 130,404,763.64 182,679,574.91 78,536,107.16 125,018,907.71 175,415,641.27
TRAFICO NORMAL 34,028,228.00 59,345,270.00 88,711,641.00 31,703,484.46 55,625,373.21 83,955,435.47 34,330,536.00 60,053,678.00 89,690,753.00
TRAFICO GENERADO
COSTOS MANTENIMIENTO 1,862,195.50 2,895,084.50 3,927,973.50 2,429,666.04 3,740,624.50 5,051,582.96 3,034,815.50 4,908,947.50 6,783,079.50
VALOR RESIDUAL 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78
COSTOS EVITADOS
EXCEDENTE PRODUCTOR 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99
COSTOS 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
COSTOS DE INVERSION 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
FLUJO EVALUATIVO 46,474,162.83 93,392,106.38 144,359,378.94 52,060,849.65 99,927,487.42 152,202,298.69 47,032,330.66 93,515,131.21 143,911,864.76

INDICADORES ECONOMICOS

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN 11,346,865.17 26,645,835.13 28,815,090.16 14,091,284.75 29,370,427.04 31,189,937.63 11,190,275.02 26,041,825.30 28,026,840.11
TIR 20.15% 23.33% 24.23% 21.95% 24.58% 25.33% 19.87% 22.89% 23.77%
R B/C 0.72 0.96 2.40 0.76 1.00 2.52 0.71 0.94 2.35

TASA DE DESCUENTO 8%
DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN 19,702,937.70 41,192,643.76 49,835,030.04 23,089,550.03 44,654,045.74 53,061,732.72 19,686,085.21 40,683,344.85 49,011,453.53
TIR 20.15% 23.33% 24.23% 21.95% 24.58% 25.33% 19.87% 22.89% 23.77%
R B/C 0.81 1.15 2.98 0.86 1.21 3.13 0.80 1.13 2.92

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

-10% de Ingresos -5,132,876 4,411,502 23,065,986 -2,156,291 7,103,182 25,313,205 -5,318,780 3,845,507 22,355,744
-20% de Ingresos -7,493,722 827,450 17,316,882 -4,649,667 3,369,680 29,666,074 -7,615,377 339,546 26,451,651
+10% de Costos 9,782,156 20,549,740 25,853,318 12,567,421 23,067,021 23,789,341 11,190,275 19,988,739 20,780,556
VAN
+20% de Costos 8,217,446 18,985,030 22,891,547 9,214,921 19,714,520 19,436,472 8,039,897 18,413,550 16,684,649
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos -6,697,586 827,450 20,119,042 -3,680,155 3,369,680 28,142,210 -5,318,780 339,546 24,876,462
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos -10,623,141 -2,301,969 11,422,993 -9,526,031 -1,506,684 16,388,744 -10,765,754 -2,810,832 13,534,271
-10% de Ingresos 9.00% 13.81% 21.97% 10.76% 14.91% 23.01% 8.96% 13.55% 21.55%
-20% de Ingresos 7.44% 12.36% 19.64% 9.22% 13.44% 20.62% 7.47% 12.14% 19.27%
+10% de Costos 18.73% 22.08% 22.18% 20.51% 23.30% 24.11% 19.87% 21.67% 22.62%
TIR
+20% de Costos 17.43% 20.94% 20.41% 17.73% 20.85% 23.01% 17.21% 20.55% 21.57%
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos 8.21% 12.36% 20.07% 9.95% 13.44% 21.89% 8.96% 12.14% 20.49%
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos 5.93% 11.07% 16.37% 6.83% 11.42% 18.66% 5.98% 10.88% 17.42%
 Escenario 3: Método del Excedente del Productor (Sin Tráfico Generado y Con Costos Evitados)
RESUMEN DEL FLUJO EVALUATIVO

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
CONCEPTO
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

BENEFICIOS 81,723,619.52 128,641,563.08 179,608,835.63 86,493,390.34 134,360,028.11 186,634,839.38 82,491,371.63 128,974,172.19 179,370,905.74
TRAFICO NORMAL 34,028,228.00 59,345,270.00 88,711,641.00 31,703,484.46 55,625,373.21 83,955,435.47 34,330,536.00 60,053,678.00 89,690,753.00
TRAFICO GENERADO
COSTOS MANTENIMIENTO 1,862,195.50 2,895,084.50 3,927,973.50 2,429,666.04 3,740,624.50 5,051,582.96 3,034,815.50 4,908,947.50 6,783,079.50
VALOR RESIDUAL 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 9,388,257.67 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 12,190,910.49 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78 11,026,321.78
COSTOS EVITADOS 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47 3,955,264.47
EXCEDENTE PRODUCTOR 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99 36,214,064.88 58,847,855.44 81,481,645.99
COSTOS 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
COSTOS DE INVERSION 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 31,294,192.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 30,477,276.22 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50 31,503,776.50
FLUJO EVALUATIVO 50,429,427.30 97,347,370.86 148,314,643.41 56,016,114.12 103,882,751.89 156,157,563.16 50,987,595.13 97,470,395.68 147,867,129.24

INDICADORES ECONOMICOS

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN 14,499,977.79 30,177,321.26 31,968,202.78 17,244,397.37 32,901,913.18 34,343,050.25 14,343,387.64 29,573,311.44 31,179,952.73
TIR 22.84% 25.61% 26.36% 24.70% 26.94% 27.55% 22.51% 25.12% 25.85%
R B/C 0.78 1.02 2.54 0.82 1.07 2.66 0.77 1.00 2.49

TASA DE DESCUENTO 8%
DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

VAN 23,093,939.47 44,854,925.68 53,226,031.82 26,480,551.81 48,316,327.66 56,452,734.50 23,077,086.98 44,345,626.77 52,402,455.31
TIR 22.84% 25.61% 26.36% 24.70% 26.94% 27.55% 22.51% 25.12% 25.85%
R B/C 0.88 1.22 3.11 0.92 1.28 3.26 0.86 1.19 3.05

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

TASA DE DESCUENTO 12%

DOBLE TRATAMIENTO IRI 3.0 ADOQUIN DE CONCRETO IRI 4 MEZCLA ASFALTICA IRI 2.5
INDICADOR INDICADOR
10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS 10 AÑOS 15 AÑOS 20 AÑOS

-10% de Ingresos -2,295,075 7,249,304 25,903,787 681,510 9,940,983 28,151,006 -2,480,979 6,683,308 25,193,546
-20% de Ingresos -4,971,232 3,349,940 19,839,372 -2,127,177 5,892,170 32,819,186 -5,092,886 2,862,036 29,604,764
+10% de Costos 12,935,268 23,702,853 29,006,431 15,720,534 26,220,133 26,627,142 14,343,388 23,141,851 23,618,357
VAN
+20% de Costos 11,370,559 22,138,143 26,044,659 12,368,033 22,867,633 21,958,962 11,193,010 21,566,662 19,207,139
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos -3,859,784 3,349,940 22,956,843 -842,354 5,892,170 31,295,323 -2,480,979 2,862,036 28,029,575
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos -8,100,651 220,521 13,945,483 -7,003,541 1,015,806 18,911,234 -8,243,264 -288,342 16,056,761
-10% de Ingresos 10.62% 15.09% 23.80% 12.40% 16.22% 24.91% 10.54% 14.80% 23.34%
-20% de Ingresos 8.89% 13.49% 21.18% 10.69% 14.61% 22.22% 8.88% 13.25% 20.78%
+10% de Costos 21.25% 24.20% 24.03% 23.07% 25.48% 26.16% 22.51% 23.74% 24.54%
TIR
+20% de Costos 19.80% 22.91% 22.05% 19.97% 22.73% 24.91% 19.52% 22.48% 23.35%
-10% Ingresos y +10% Costos 9.75% 13.49% 21.66% 11.52% 14.61% 23.64% 10.54% 13.25% 22.14%
-20% Ingresos y +20% Costos 7.25% 12.09% 17.56% 8.10% 12.41% 20.03% 7.27% 11.88% 18.71%